Assessing the impact of COVID-19 interventions on the hand, foot and mouth disease in Guangdong Province, China: a Bayesian modeling study.

Background: The non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) against COVID-19 may have affected the transmission of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD). We aimed to assess the impact of the NPIs on HFMD in the high epidemic area of HFMD, Guangdong Province. Methods: The data of HFMD cases, etiological information, and meteorological factors in Guangdong from January 1, 2012, to December 31, 2021, were collected. Using a Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model integrated counterfactual framework, we assessed the effect of NPIs on HFMD by different intervention periods, populations (gender, age, occupation), and cities. We further explored the correlation between the reduction of HFMD and socioeconomic factors in 21 cities. Results: A total of 351,217 HFMD cases were reported and 455,327 cases were averted in Guangdong Province during 2020-2021 with a reduction of 84.94% (95%CI: 81.63-87.22%) in 2020 and 29.49% (95%CI: 15.26-39.54%) in 2021. The impact of NPIs on HFMD differed by age and gender. The effects of NPIs were more remarkable for children aged 0-2 years and scattered children. We found that the relative reductions in 21 cities were related to the composition ratio of children and COVID-19 incidence. Conclusion: The reduction of HFMD incidence was significantly associated with COVID-19 NPIs, and school closure was an effective intervention to prevent HFMD outbreaks. Our findings will contribute to the development of HFMD prevention and control measures.

The impact of enterovirus A71 vaccination program on hand, foot, and mouth disease in Guangdong, China: A longitudinal surveillance study.

Enterovirus A71 (EV71) vaccination program was introduced in 2016 in China. Based on a longitudinal surveillance dataset from 2012 to 2019 in Guangdong, China, we estimated the impact of the EV71 vaccination program on hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) incidence, by using a counterfactual prediction made from synthetic control approach integrated with a Bayesian time-series model. We observed a relative reduction of 41.4% for EV71-associated HFMD cases during the post-vaccination period of 2017-2019, corresponding to 26,226 cases averted. The reduction of EV71-associated HFMD cases raised with the elevation of EV71 vaccine coverage by year. We found an indirect effect for the children aged 6-14 years who were less likely to be vaccinated. Whereas, the EV71 vaccine may not protect against non-EV71-associated HFMD. This study provides a template for ongoing public health surveillance of EV71 vaccine effectiveness with a counterfactual study design. Our results show strong evidence of the EV71 vaccination program working on reducing EV71-associated HFMD in real-world settings. The finding will benefit policy-making of EV71 vaccination and the prevention of HFMD.

Synbiotics Supplements Lower the Risk of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Children, Potentially by Providing Resistance to Gut Microbiota Dysbiosis.

Background: Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is an acute enterovirus-induced disease. Gut microbiota dysbiosis has been identified as a factor that plays an important role in enteral virus infection, but the gut microbiota profile in hand, foot and mouth disease has rarely been studied in a large population. Methods: A total of 749 children (HFMD: n = 262, healthy control: n = 487) aged 2 to 7 years were recruited from hospitals and communities in the period from May to July, 2017. Clinical and demographical information was collected by trained personnel, and fecal samples were collected and processed for 16S ribosomal RNA(rRNA) gene sequencing. Results: We observed a significant alteration in the microbiota profile of children with HFMD compared with that of control children. Patients with enteroviruses A71(EV71) positive had more dysbiotic gut microbiota than those with coxsackievirus A16 (CAV16) positive. We found that Prevotella and Streptococcus were enriched in children with HFMD, whereas beneficial bacteria, including Bifidobacterium and Faecalibacterium, were depleted. Children with synbiotics supplements had lower risk of HFMD and we observed that the gut microbiota of HFMD patients who were administered synbiotics exhibited potential resistance to the dysbiosis detected in HFMD. Conclusions: This study suggested that the gut microbiota of patients with hand, foot and mouth disease exhibits dysbiosis and that synbiotics supplements potentially helps maintain the homeostasis of the gut flora.