The biological carbon pump in CMIP6 models: 21st century trends and uncertainties.

The biological carbon pump (BCP) stores ∼1,700 Pg C from the atmosphere in the ocean interior, but the magnitude and direction of future changes in carbon sequestration by the BCP are uncertain. We quantify global trends in export production, sinking organic carbon fluxes, and sequestered carbon in the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) future projections, finding a consistent 19 to 48 Pg C increase in carbon sequestration over the 21st century for the SSP3-7.0 scenario, equivalent to 5 to 17% of the total increase of carbon in the ocean by 2100. This is in contrast to a global decrease in export production of -0.15 to -1.44 Pg C y-1. However, there is significant uncertainty in the modeled future fluxes of organic carbon to the deep ocean associated with a range of different processes resolved across models. We demonstrate that organic carbon fluxes at 1,000 m are a good predictor of long-term carbon sequestration and suggest this is an important metric of the BCP that should be prioritized in future model studies.

Multi-proxy evidence for sea level fall at the onset of the Eocene-Oligocene transition.

Continental-scale expansion of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet during the Eocene-Oligocene Transition (EOT) is one of the largest non-linear events in Earth's climate history. Declining atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and orbital variability triggered glacial expansion and strong feedbacks in the climate system. Prominent among these feedbacks was the repartitioning of biogeochemical cycles between the continental shelves and the deep ocean with falling sea level. Here we present multiple proxies from a shallow shelf location that identify a marked regression and an elevated flux of continental-derived organic matter at the earliest stage of the EOT, a time of deep ocean carbonate dissolution and the extinction of oligotrophic phytoplankton groups. We link these observations using an Earth System model, whereby this first regression delivers a pulse of organic carbon to the oceans that could drive the observed patterns of deep ocean dissolution and acts as a transient negative feedback to climate cooling.