Regional disparities in road traffic injuries and their determinants in Brazil, 2013.

BACKGROUND: In recent decades middle-income countries have experienced a rapid increase in the number of cars and motorcycles. Increased deaths and hospitalizations due to road traffic injuries (RTI) has been observed in several countries as a result. In this study we assessed the determinants of RTIs in Brazil by mode of transportation and compared differences in RTI rates among macro-regions. METHODS: We used data from the National Health Survey (NHS) conducted in 2013 by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics and the Ministry of Health. NHS is a comprehensive household survey which includes a representative sample (N = 60,198) of individuals aged 18 years or older. The prevalence and determinants of RTI were estimated according to different modes of transport (car/van, motorcycle, and other) and regions of the country. Bivariate and multivariable logistic regression models were applied to assess crude and adjusted odds ratios, respectively, and their 95 % CI for RTI determinants. RESULTS: The prevalence of RTI for the Southeast, South, Central-West, Northeast and North regions of Brazil was 2.4 %, 2.9 %, 4.4 %, 3.4 % and 4.8 %, respectively, pointing to important differences among regions. High percentages of motorcyclists were observed in the Northeast and North regions. For motorcyclists, factors associated with RTIs were being male (OR = 2.6;95 % CI:2.3;3.0), aged 18-29 (OR = 3.2; 95 % CI:2.7;3.8) and 30-39 years (OR = 2.0;95 % CI:1.7;2.5), black (OR = 1.4;95 % CI:1.1;1.7), having elementary educational (OR = 1.5;95 % CI:1.1;1.9), reporting binge drinking behavior (OR = 1.3;95 % CI:1.1;1.5), and living in the Central-West (OR = 2.0;95 % CI:1.6;2.5), Northeast (OR = 1.8;95 % CI:1.5;2.1) and North (OR = 2.0;95 % CI:1.6; 2.5) regions of the country. The independent variables associated with RTI for car/van occupants were being male (OR = 1.7;95 % CI:1.4;2.1), aged 18-29 (OR = 1.5;95 % CI:1.1;2.0) and 30-39 years (OR = 2.5;95 % CI:1.9;3.2), reporting binge drinking behavior (OR = 2.0;95 % CI:1.6;2.5) and living in the South region (OR = 1.6;95 % CI:1.3;2.1). CONCLUSIONS: There were considerable regional disparities in RTI rates across Brazil's regions. Motorcyclists contributed to the high RTI rates in these regions as did demographic factors and behaviors such as alcohol use. These findings can help guide interventions to reduce the burden of RTIs in Brazil.

Evaluation of Haemophilus influenzae type b carrier status among children 10 years after the introduction of Hib vaccine in Brazil.

The aim of the present study was to assess the prevalence of Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) nasopharyngeal (NP) colonisation among healthy children where Hib vaccination using a 3p+0 dosing schedule has been routinely administered for 10 years with sustained coverage (> 90%). NP swabs were collected from 2,558 children who had received the Hib vaccine, of whom 1,379 were 12-< 24 months (m) old and 1,179 were 48-< 60 m old. Hi strains were identified by molecular methods. Hi carriage prevalence was 45.1% (1,153/2,558) and the prevalence in the 12-< 24 m and 48-< 60 m age groups were 37.5% (517/1,379) and 53.9% (636/1,179), respectively. Hib was identified in 0.6% (16/2,558) of all children in the study, being 0.8% (11/1,379) and 0.4% (5/1,179) among the 12-< 24 m and 48-< 60 m age groups, respectively. The nonencapsulate Hi colonisation was 43% (n = 1,099) and was significantly more frequent at 48-< 60 m of age (51.6%, n = 608) compared with that at 12-< 24 m of age (35.6%, n = 491). The overall resistance rates to ampicillin and chloramphenicol were 16.5% and 3.7%, respectively; the co-resistance was detected in 2.6%. Our findings showed that the Hib carrier rate in healthy children under five years was very low after 10 years of the introduction of the Hib vaccine.

Global and regional burden of hospital admissions for severe acute lower respiratory infections in young children in 2010: a systematic analysis.

BACKGROUND: The annual number of hospital admissions and in-hospital deaths due to severe acute lower respiratory infections (ALRI) in young children worldwide is unknown. We aimed to estimate the incidence of admissions and deaths for such infections in children younger than 5 years in 2010. METHODS: We estimated the incidence of admissions for severe and very severe ALRI in children younger than 5 years, stratified by age and region, with data from a systematic review of studies published between Jan 1, 1990, and March 31, 2012, and from 28 unpublished population-based studies. We applied these incidence estimates to population estimates for 2010, to calculate the global and regional burden in children admitted with severe ALRI in that year. We estimated in-hospital mortality due to severe and very severe ALRI by combining incidence estimates with case fatality ratios from hospital-based studies. FINDINGS: We identified 89 eligible studies and estimated that in 2010, 11·9 million (95% CI 10·3-13·9 million) episodes of severe and 3·0 million (2·1-4·2 million) episodes of very severe ALRI resulted in hospital admissions in young children worldwide. Incidence was higher in boys than in girls, the sex disparity being greatest in South Asian studies. On the basis of data from 37 hospital studies reporting case fatality ratios for severe ALRI, we estimated that roughly 265,000 (95% CI 160,000-450,000) in-hospital deaths took place in young children, with 99% of these deaths in developing countries. Therefore, the data suggest that although 62% of children with severe ALRI are treated in hospitals, 81% of deaths happen outside hospitals. INTERPRETATION: Severe ALRI is a substantial burden on health services worldwide and a major cause of hospital referral and admission in young children. Improved hospital access and reduced inequities, such as those related to sex and rural status, could substantially decrease mortality related to such infection. Community-based management of severe disease could be an important complementary strategy to reduce pneumonia mortality and health inequities. FUNDING: WHO.

Effect of 10-valent pneumococcal vaccine on pneumonia among children, Brazil.

Pneumonia is most problematic for children in developing countries. In 2010, Brazil introduced a 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10) to its National Immunization Program. To assess the vaccine's effectiveness for preventing pneumonia, we analyzed rates of hospitalization among children 2-24 months of age who had pneumonia from all causes from January 2005 through August 2011. We used data from the National Hospitalization Information System to conduct an interrupted time-series analysis for 5 cities in Brazil that had good data quality and high PCV10 vaccination coverage. Of the 197,975 hospitalizations analyzed, 30% were for pneumonia. Significant declines in hospitalizations for pneumonia were noted in Belo Horizonte (28.7%), Curitiba (23.3%), and Recife (27.4%) but not in São Paulo and Porto Alegre. However, in the latter 2 cities, vaccination coverage was less than that in the former 3. Overall, 1 year after introduction of PCV10, hospitalizations of children for pneumonia were reduced.

Molecular epidemiology of coagulase-negative Staphylococcus carriage in neonates admitted to an intensive care unit in Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Nasal colonization with coagulase-negative Staphylococcus (CoNS) has been described as a risk factor for subsequent systemic infection. In this study, we evaluated the genetic profile of CoNS isolates colonizing the nares of children admitted to a neonatal intensive care unit (NICU). METHODS: We assessed CoNS carriage at admittance and discharge among newborns admitted to a NICU from July 2007 through May 2008 in one of the major municipalities of Brazil. Isolates were screened on mannitol salt agar and tryptic soy broth and tested for susceptibility to antimicrobials using the disc diffusion method. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) was used to determine the species, the presence of the mecA gene, and to perform SCCmec typing. S. epidermidis and S. haemolyticus isolated from the same child at both admission and discharge were characterized by PFGE. RESULTS: Among 429 neonates admitted to the NICU, 392 (91.4%) had nasal swabs collected at both admission and discharge. The incidence of CoNS during the hospitalization period was 55.9% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 50.9-60.7). The most frequently isolated species were S. haemolyticus (38.3%) and S.epidermidis (38.0%). Multidrug resistance (MDR) was detected in 2.2% and 29.9% of the CoNS isolates, respectively at admittance and discharge (p = 0.053). The mecA gene was more prevalent among strains isolated at discharge (83.6%) than those isolated at admission (60%); overall, SCCmec type I was isolated most frequently. The length of hospitalization was associated with colonization by MDR isolates (p < 0.005). Great genetic diversity was observed among S. epidermidis and S. haemolyticus. CONCLUSIONS: NICU represents an environment of risk for colonization by MDR CoNS. Neonates admitted to the NICU can become a reservoir of CoNS strains with the potential to spread MDR strains into the community.

Pneumonia and poverty: a prospective population-based study among children in Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Children in developing country suffer the highest burden of pneumonia. However, few studies have evaluated associations between poverty and pneumonia. METHODS: A prospective population-based study on pneumonia was carried out as part of the Latin America Epidemiological Assessment of Pneumococcus (LEAP study). Chest x-rays were obtained for children one to 35 months old with suspected pneumonia presenting to emergency care centers and hospital emergency rooms in Goiania, Brazil. Chest radiographs were evaluated according to WHO guidelines. Clustering of radiologically-confirmed pneumonia were evaluated using a Poisson-based spatial scan statistic. Associations between census socioeconomic indicators and pneumonia incidence rates were analyzed using generalized linear models. RESULTS: From May, 2007 to May, 2009, chest radiographs were obtained from 11 521 children with clinical pneumonia; 3955 episodes were classified as radiologically-confirmed. Incidence rates were significantly higher in very low income areas (4825.2 per 105) compared to high income areas (1637.3 per 105). Spatial analysis identified clustering of confirmed pneumonia in Western (RR 1.78; p=0.001) and Southeast (RR 1.46; p=0.001) regions of the city, and clustering of hospitalized pneumonia in the Western region (RR 1.69; p=0.001). Lower income households and illiteracy were associated with pneumonia incidence. CONCLUSIONS: In infants the risk of developing pneumonia is inversely associated with the head of household income and with the woman educational level. Areas with deprived socioeconomic conditions had higher incidence of pneumonia and should be targeted for high vaccination coverage.

Dynamics of antimicrobial resistance of Streptococcus pneumoniae following PCV10 introduction in Brazil: Nationwide surveillance from 2007 to 2019.

BACKGROUND: Brazil introduced 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10) into its immunization program in 2010. We assessed antimicrobial susceptibility of Streptococcus pneumoniae (Spn) obtained from a national surveillance system for invasive pneumococcal diseases (IPD) before/after PCV10 introduction. METHODS: Antimicrobial non-susceptible isolates were defined as intermediate or resistant. Minimum inhibitory concentrations (MICs) to penicillin and ceftriaxone were analyzed by year. Antimicrobial susceptibility rates were assessed for each three-year-period using the pre-PCV10-period as reference. Susceptibility of vaccine-types was evaluated for 2017-2019. RESULTS: 11,380 isolates were studied. Spn with penicillin ≥ 0.125 mg/L and ceftriaxone ≥ 1.0 mg/L decreased in the three-years after PCV10 introduction (2011-2013: penicillin, 28.1-22.5%; ceftriaxone, 11.3%-7.6%) versus pre-PCV10-years (2007-2009: penicillin, 33.8-38.1%; ceftriaxone, 17.2%-15.6%). After 2013, the proportion of Spn with those MICs to penicillin and ceftriaxone increased to 39.4% and 19.7% in 2019, respectively. Non-susceptibility to penicillin and ceftriaxone increased in 2014-2016, and again in 2017-2019 especially among children < 5 years with meningitis (penicillin, 53.9%; ceftriaxone, 28.0%); multidrug-resistance reached 25% in 2017-2019. Serotypes 19A, 6C and 23A were most associated with antimicrobial non-susceptibility. CONCLUSIONS: Antimicrobial non-susceptible Spn decreased in the three-years after vaccination but subsequently increased and was associated with non-PCV10-types. Antimicrobial susceptibility surveillance is fundamental for guiding antibiotic therapy policies.

Modeling the cost-effectiveness of maternal acellular pertussis immunization (aP) in different socioeconomic settings: A dynamic transmission model of pertussis in three Brazilian states.

OBJECTIVES: Using dynamic transmission models we evaluated the health and cost outcomes of adding acellular pertussis (aP) vaccination of pregnant women to infant vaccination in three Brazilian states that represent different socioeconomic conditions. The primary objective was to determine whether the same model structure could be used to represent pertussis disease dynamics in differing socioeconomic conditions. METHODS: We tested three model structures (SIR, SIRS, SIRSIs) to represent population-level transmission in three socio-demographically distinct Brazilian states: São Paulo, Paraná and Bahia. Two strategies were evaluated: infant wP vaccination alone versus maternal aP immunization plus infant wP vaccination. Model projections for 2014-2029 include outpatient and inpatient pertussis cases, pertussis deaths, years of life lost, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) lost, and costs (in 2014 USD) of maternal aP vaccination, infant vaccination, and pertussis medical treatment. Incremental cost per DALY averted is presented from the perspective of the Brazilian National Health System. RESULTS: Based on goodness-of-fit statistics, the SIRSIs model fit best, although it had only a modest improvement in statistical quantitative assessments relative to the SIRS model. For all three Brazilian states, maternal aP immunization led to higher costs but also saved infant lives and averted DALYs. The 2014 USD cost/DALY averted was $3068 in Sao Paulo, $2962 in Parana, and $2022 in Bahia. These results were robust in sensitivity analyses with the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios exceeding per capita gross regional product only when the probability that a pertussis case is reported was assumed higher than base case implying more overt cases and deaths and therefore more medical costs. CONCLUSIONS: The same model structure fit all three states best, supporting the idea that the disease behaves similarly across different socioeconomic conditions. We also found that immunization of pregnant women with aP is cost-effective in diverse Brazilian states.

The data used to build the models: Pertussis morbidity and mortality burden considering various Brazilian data sources.

BACKGROUND: Pertussis is associated with significant disease burden in children worldwide. In addition to its cyclical nature, resurgences of pertussis cases, hospitalizations and deaths have been reported by many countries. We describe the dynamics of pertussis in Brazil, a middle-income country that has experienced a resurgence and that provides good quality data to allow building a dynamic transmission disease model. METHODS: We conducted a descriptive analysis of pertussis burden considering data from the national disease surveillance system, national hospitalization information system and national mortality registry. Study period was 2000-2016. Absolute numbers and rates per 100,000 inhabitants over time, by age sub-groups and geographical regions are presented. RESULTS: From 2000 to 2016, a total of 37,299 reported pertussis cases, 25,240 hospitalizations, and 601 deaths due to pertussis were reported. Although the outcomes - pertussis cases, hospitalizations, and deaths - come from independent information systems, our results document low disease burden with periodic increases every 3-4 years during the years 2000-2010, followed by a sharp increase which peaked in 2014. In both periods, disease burden is concentrated in young children, while its more serious outcomes - hospitalizations and deaths, are concentrated in infants. Pre-outbreak and outbreak disease burden as well as timing of peak during the outbreak period vary by states and within geographical regions, representing valuable resources of data for modelling purposes. CONCLUSION: Consistent disease burden patterns were observed over time in Brazil using a variety of data sources. Given the scarcity of good epidemiological data on pertussis available from low- and middle-income countries, our reported data provide valuable information for the assessment of the public health impact and cost-effectiveness modelling studies of newer strategies to prevent and control pertussis. These data were used to build and calibrate a national dynamic transmission model, which was used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of maternal immunization. Clinical Trial registry name and registration number: Not applicable.

Cost-effectiveness of maternal pertussis immunization: Implications of a dynamic transmission model for low- and middle-income countries.

OBJECTIVE: This study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of maternal acellular pertussis (aP) immunization in low- and middle-income countries using a dynamic transmission model. METHODS: We developed a dynamic transmission model to simulate the impact of infant vaccination with whole-cell pertussis (wP) vaccine with and without maternal aP immunization. The model was calibrated to Brazilian surveillance data and then used to project health outcomes and costs under alternative strategies in Brazil, and, after adjusting model parameter values to reflect their conditions, in Nigeria and Bangladesh. The primary measure of cost-effectiveness is incremental cost (2014 USD) per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY). RESULTS: The dynamic model shows that maternal aP immunization would be cost-effective in Brazil, a middle-income country, under the base-case assumptions, but would be very expensive at infant vaccination coverage in and above the threshold range necessary to eliminate the disease (90-95%). At 2007 infant coverage (DTP1 90%, DTP3 61% at 1 year of age), maternal immunization would cost < $4,000 per DALY averted. At high infant coverage, such as Brazil in 1996 (DTP1 94%, DTP3 74% at 1 year), cost/DALY increases to $1.27 million. When the model's time horizon was extended from 2030 to 2100, cost/DALY increased under both infant coverage levels, but more steeply with high coverage. The results were moderately sensitive to discount rate, maternal vaccine price, and maternal aP coverage and were robust using the 100 best-fitting parameter sets. Scenarios representing low-income countries showed that maternal aP immunization could be cost-saving in countries with low infant coverage, such as Nigeria, but very expensive in countries, such as Bangladesh, with high infant coverage. CONCLUSION: A dynamic model, which captures the herd immunity benefits of pertussis vaccination, shows that, in low- and middle-income countries, maternal aP immunization is cost-effective when infant vaccination coverage is moderate, even cost-saving when it is low, but not cost-effective when coverage levels pass 90-95%.