Prediction of Shigellosis outcomes in Israel using machine learning classifiers.

Shigellosis causes significant morbidity and mortality in developing and developed countries, mostly among infants and young children. The World Health Organization estimates that more than one million people die from Shigellosis every year. In order to evaluate trends in Shigellosis in Israel in the years 2002-2015, we analysed national notifiable disease reporting data. Shigella sonnei was the most commonly identified Shigella species in Israel. Hospitalisation rates due to Shigella flexenri were higher in comparison with other Shigella species. Shigella morbidity was higher among infants and young children (age 0-5 years old). Incidence of Shigella species differed among various ethnic groups, with significantly high rates of S. flexenri among Muslims, in comparison with Jews, Druze and Christians. In order to improve the current Shigellosis clinical diagnosis, we developed machine learning algorithms to predict the Shigella species and whether a patient will be hospitalised or not, based on available demographic and clinical data. The algorithms' performances yielded an accuracy of 93.2% (Shigella species) and 94.9% (hospitalisation) and may consequently improve the diagnosis and treatment of the disease.

Modeling the spread of polio in an IPV-vaccinated population: lessons learned from the 2013 silent outbreak in southern Israel.

BACKGROUND: Polio eradication is an extraordinary globally coordinated health program in terms of its magnitude and reach, leading to the elimination of wild poliovirus (WPV) in most parts of the world. In 2013, a silent outbreak of WPV was detected in Israel, a country using an inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) exclusively since 2005. The outbreak was detected using environmental surveillance (ES) of sewage reservoirs. Stool surveys indicated the outbreak to be restricted mainly to children under the age of 10 in the Bedouin population of southern Israel. In order to curtail the outbreak, a nationwide vaccination campaign using oral polio vaccine (OPV) was conducted, targeting all children under 10. METHODS: A transmission model, fitted to the results of the stool surveys, with additional conditions set by the ES measurements, was used to evaluate the prevalence of WPV in Bedouin children and the effectiveness of the vaccination campaign. Employing the parameter estimates of the model fitting, the model was used to investigate the effect of alternative timings, coverages and dosages of the OPV campaign on the outcome of the outbreak. RESULTS: The mean estimate for the mean reproductive number was 1.77 (95 % credible interval, 1.46-2.30). With seasonal variation, the reproductive number maximum range was between zero and six. The mean estimate for the mean infectious periods was 16.8 (8.6-24.9) days. The modeling indicates the OPV campaign was effective in curtailing the outbreak. The mean estimate for the attack rate in Bedouin children under 10 at the end of 2014 was 42 % (22-65 %), whereas without the campaign the mean projected attack rate was 57 % (35-74 %). The campaign also likely shortened the duration of the outbreak by a mean estimate of 309 (2-846) days. A faster initiation of the OPV campaign could have reduced the incidence of WPV even if a lower coverage was reached, at the risk of prolonging the outbreak. CONCLUSIONS: OPV campaigns are essential for interrupting WPV transmission, even in a developed country setting with a high coverage of IPV. In this setting, establishing ES of WPV circulation is particularly crucial for early detection and containment of an outbreak.

Insidious reintroduction of wild poliovirus into Israel, 2013.

Israel was certified as polio-free country in June 2002, along with the rest of the World Health Organization European Region. Some 11 years later, wild-type polio virus 1 (WPV1) was isolated initially from routine sewage samples collected between 7 and 13 April 2013 in two cities in the Southern district. WPV1-specific analysis of samples indicated WPV1 introduction into that area in early February 2013. National supplementary immunisation with oral polio vaccine has been ongoing since August 2013.

Mumps outbreak in Israel's highly vaccinated society: are two doses enough?

Mumps outbreaks in recent years have given rise to questions about the effectiveness of the mumps vaccine. This study examined the epidemiological data from a recent mumps outbreak in Israel and from outbreaks in other countries with high vaccination coverage, and considered whether long-established vaccination policies designed to protect against mumps are in need of revision. Of over 5000 case patients in the Israeli outbreak, half of whom were in the Jerusalem health district, nearly 40% were aged ≥15 years and, of those whose vaccination status was known, 78% had been fully vaccinated for their age - features similar to those in recent mumps outbreaks in Europe and North America. The epidemiological and laboratory evidence suggests that many previously vaccinated adolescents and young adults are now susceptible to mumps because their vaccine-based immunity has waned. Booster vaccination programmes for those at high risk of infection during mumps outbreaks - particularly those in congregate living environments - merit priority consideration.

Humidifier-associated paediatric Legionnaires' disease, Israel, February 2012.

We report a fatal case of community-acquired Legionnaires' disease in an infant aged under six months. Epidemiological and microbiological investigations suggested that a free-standing cold water humidifier using domestic tap water contaminated with Legionella pneumophila serogroup 1 served as a vehicle for infection. These findings were corroborated by sequence-based typing (SBT). Humidifier-associated Legionnaires' disease can be prevented by appropriate control measures. This case also illustrates the emerging role of SBT in the investigation of legionellosis.

Management of traumatic tibial defects using free vascularized fibula or Ilizarov bone transport: a comparative study.

There are several options for the treatment of traumatic tibial defects. Among these options, free vascularized fibula and Ilizarov bone transport are well-known and effective techniques. The differences between both techniques and the indications for each of them are not well studied in the literature. Between September 1995 and December 2004, Ilizarov bone transport and free vascularized fibula were used to treat 25 traumatic bone. Patients were divided into two groups, Ilizarov group (12) and free fibula group (13). Preoperative data, operative data, duration of treatment, functional outcome, range of motion loss, number of secondary procedures, and type and rate of complications were compared in both groups. All the cases were ultimately united in both groups. Operative time and blood loss were significantly higher in the free fibula group. Although external fixation time was longer in the Ilizarov group, the overall duration of treatment was similar. Range of motion loss was less in the Ilizarov group, but the overall functional outcome was similar. There was no difference in complication rate, or number secondary procedures. Defect size was found to have the most significant effect on the results. Results were much better in the free fibula group when the defect length was 12 cm or more while the results were better in Ilizarov group when the defect length was less than 12 cm. We recommend using free vascularized fibula for traumatic tibial defects of 12 cm or more, whenever experience is available.

Effectiveness of rotavirus pentavalent vaccine under a universal immunization programme in Israel, 2011-2015: a case-control study.

OBJECTIVES: The use of rotavirus pentavalent vaccine (RotaTeq®) as a sole vaccine within rotavirus universal immunization programmes remains limited. We examined the effectiveness of RotaTeq in preventing rotavirus gastroenteritis (RVGE) hospitalization in Israel, after the introduction of universal immunization against the disease. METHODS: A test-negative case-control study included age-eligible children for universal RotaTeq immunization (aged 2-59 months, born in 2011-2015). Cases (n = 98) were patients who tested positive for rotavirus by immunochromatography; those who tested negative (n = 628) comprised the control group. Information on rotavirus immunization history was obtained through linkage with a national immunization registry. Vaccination status was compared between cases and controls, adjusted odds ratios (aORs) were obtained from logistic regression models, and vaccine effectiveness calculated as (1 - aOR)*100. RESULTS: Immunization with RotaTeq was less frequent in RVGE cases (73.5%) than in controls (90.1%), p < 0.001; this association persisted after controlling for potential confounders. Effectiveness of the complete vaccine series was estimated at 77% (95% confidence interval (CI): 49-90) in children aged 6-59 months, and 86% (95% CI: 65-94) in children aged 6-23 months; whereas for the incomplete series, the respective estimates were 72% (95% CI: 28-89) and 75% (95% CI: 30-91). Vaccine effectiveness was estimated at 79% (95% CI: 45-92) against G1P[8]-associated RVGE hospitalizations and 69% (95% CI: 11-89) against other genotype-RVGE hospitalizations. CONCLUSIONS: High effectiveness of RotaTeq as the sole rotavirus vaccine in a universal immunization programme was demonstrated in a high-income country. Although partial vaccination conferred protection, completing the vaccine series is warranted to maximize the benefit.

The changing epidemiology of viral hepatitis A in Israel.

BACKGROUND: Between 1970 and 1979, there was an increase in the incidence of viral hepatitis in Israel with a shift of peak incidence to an older age in the Jewish population, followed by a declining trend during the early 1980s. In July 1999 universal immunization of infants against hepatitis A was introduced. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the chan-ges in the epidemiology of viral hepatitis A in Israel during the past decade. METHODS: Viral hepatitis is a notifiable disease in Israel and cases are reported to the regional health offices, which in turn provide summary reports to the Ministry of Health's Department of Epidemiology. The data in this study were derived from the summary reports and from results of seroprevalence studies. RESULTS: Following the increase in the incidence of reported viral hepatitis (mainly due to type A) between 1970 and 1979, the rates then stabilized and around 1984 began to decline until 1992. Since then there has been a slight increase. Whereas until 1987 the rates were consistently higher in the Jewish population, since then they are higher in the Arab population. The shift in the peak age-specific incidence from the 1-4 to the 5-9 year age group observed in the Jewish population around 1970 occurred 20 years later in the Arab population. The previously described seasonality is no longer evident. Recent seroprevalence studies indicate that by age 18 years only about 30-40% of the Jewish population have anti-hepatitis A antibodies. CONCLUSIONS: The decline in the incidence of hepatitis probably reflects the changing socioeconomic condition occurring at different times in the two major population groups. Since hepatitis A accounts for almost all the acute viral hepatitis in Israel, the universal vaccination of infants introduced in 1999 should substantially lower the morbidity within the next few years.

[Introduction of routine hepatitis A immunization in Israel--the first in the world].

Notification of hepatitis A, which is endemic in Israel, has been compulsory since the establishment of the State. From 1992-98 an average of 2,600 cases were reported annually. Many infections are asymptomatic and mild, especially in children. In general, severity increases with age; in Western countries the case fatality rate is 1.5/1,000 among children less than 5 years old and 27/1,000 among those over 50. Until 1987 incidence in Israel was higher in Jews than in non-Jews, but since 1988 incidence has been about 50% higher in non-Jews. Among Jews highest age specific rates shifted from children 1-4 years old to children 5-9 years old in 1970, and in non-Jews in 1989. Improved sanitary conditions and personal hygiene have reduced very early childhood exposure and hence increased the proportion of susceptible older children and adults, in whom symptomatic disease is more prevalent. Israel is the first country in the world to include hepatitis A vaccine in its routine immunization schedule. The vaccine is given in 2 doses: at 18 months and 24-30 months of age, and there will be epidemiologic and serologic follow-up. A significant decrease in hepatitis A morbidity is expected in small children within 5 years. The percentage of reported cases in older children and in adults is expected to increase, although the absolute incidence among these groups will decrease.

Splenic tuberculosis in patients with fever of unknown origin.

Splenic tuberculosis is uncommon. We report here splenic tuberculosis in 5 patients with fever of over 3 weeks duration. In the 5 patients, abdominal ultrasonography and/or abdominal computed tomography revealed multiple hypoechoic and hypodense splenic lesions. Diagnosis required biopsy of cervical lymph nodes in four cases and splenectomy in one. Despite vigorous antituberculous therapy with isoniazid, rifampin, and ethambutol, the clinical condition of 2 of these patients worsened and splenectomy was done. Histological examination of a tissue specimen of the spleen showed multiple caseating granulomas.

Molecular epidemiology of Legionnaires' disease in Israel.

National surveillance of Legionnaires' disease (LD) is important to inform control measures and facilitate international networking for timely reporting. This study is the first to describe the molecular epidemiology of LD in Israel. Case notifications for 2006-2011, collated through mandatory reporting, were identified and demographic, clinical and laboratory data were extracted. Unrelated clinical and environmental Legionella pneumophila strains were characterized using standard procedures, Dresden panel of monoclonal antibodies and the ESCMID Study Group for Legionella Infections (ESGLI) Sequence-Based Typing scheme. In all, 294 cases were reported (crude incidence 0.67 cases/100 000; age-standardized incidence 1/100 000). LD epidemiological trends and features largely resembled those of the EU, except for a larger proportion of nosocomial cases. Of 28 clinical and 23 environmental strains analysed, 71.4% and 21.7% were serogroup (sg) 1 and the most common immunological subgroup was OLDA/Oxford (64%). Of the clinical strains, OLDA/Oxford, ST1 was the most common (43%) followed by Allentown/France, ST40 (14%). The unusual sg 3 ST338 was found in 17.4% of environmental strains. Novel STs were detected amongst 23.5% of strains. These findings warrant further molecular investigation. Molecular epidemiology data generated from neighbouring countries newly adopting the ESGLI typing scheme for L. pneumophila contribute to understanding of regional strain diversity.

The fall and rise of gonorrhoea incidence in Israel: an international phenomenon?

BACKGROUND: There is evidence of a recent resurgence of the incidence of gonorrhoea in some countries. AIM: To examine trends in gonorrhoea incidence in Israel and compare them with the United States and countries in Europe METHOD: The 1967-2001 annual incidence of gonorrhoea in Israel was obtained from the Israel Ministry of Health's department of epidemiology and for the United States from summary reports of the Centers for Disease Control. The incidence of gonorrhoea in European countries was extracted from the World Health Organization, Health for All database. RESULTS: In Israel, following a long period of decline from 40 per 100 000 in 1970 to 0.74 per 100 000 in 1997, incidence rates began to increase in 1998 to 13.8 per 100 000 in 2001. This pattern parallels those observed in a number of European countries and to some extent, in the United States. Most reported morbidity in Israel occurs among males aged 20-44 years. CONCLUSIONS: The resurgence of gonorrhoea does not appear to be explained solely by behavioural changes. Transmission of the disease should be further studied among different subpopulations in order to develop new prevention strategies.

Control of rubella in Israel: progress and challenge.

Despite a high-compliance school girl rubella immunization program since 1973 and a program for the immunization of women of childbearing age since 1980, sporadic cases of the congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) continue to occur in Israel, particularly following rubella epidemics. At highest risk for a child with CRS are unimmunized Arab women and immigrants from Ethiopia, although CRS has also occurred in infants of immunized non-immigrant women. In order to make progress towards the elimination of congenital rubella, the Israel Ministry of Health has incorporated into its rubella immunization program the intermediate goal of interrupting endemic rubella transmission in the country. To this end, universal rubella vaccination at age one began in 1989, a second dose at age six years was introduced in 1994, inclusion of boys in the program aimed at 12-year-olds began in late 1995, and catch-up campaigns to immunize never-immunized children, boys and girls, are planned. Moreover, women of childbearing age will be encouraged to receive a second dose of rubella vaccine. While the WHO goal of no indigenous CRS by the year 2000 will not be met, it is expected that in the coming decade substantial additional progress towards the elimination of CRS will be made.

Shigellosis in Israel--update 1995.

INTRODUCTION: The incidence of shigellosis in Israel was fairly stable until around 1974, when it gradually began to increase to a peak in 1985. This was accompanied by a shift in the maximum incidence in the Jewish population from the age group < 1 to 1-4 years. AIM: To update the epidemiology of shigellosis in Israel 1986-1995. METHODS: Only laboratory-confirmed cases of shigellosis in the civilian population were analyzed. Data were obtained from the weekly reports of the subdistricts. Antibiotic sensitivity data were obtained from several hospitals and the General Workers' Sick Fund laboratories in Jerusalem, Haifa, and Tel Aviv. RESULTS: From 1986 to 1991, shigellosis incidence per 100,000 decreased by about 50%, and the decrease occurred mainly in the Jewish population. Several regional outbreaks in 1992 reversed this decline, but by 1995, the incidence was similar to that observed prior to 1974. The disease still occurs mainly in the summer, with an occasional winter outbreak. Higher incidence rates occurred in the northern subdistricts. The peak incidence in the non-Jewish population moved from the < 1-year-olds to the 1-4 year-old group, similar to the pattern in the Jewish population in 1970. In 1991, for the first time, the rate in the age group 5-9 years among non-Jews exceeded that of those < 1 year old. Marked decreases in sensitivity to several antibiotics were found in peripheral and hospital laboratories. An increase in the sensitivity to tetracycline was noted since 1991. Case fatality rates remain low, with a mean of 0.05% for the decade of the 1980s. CONCLUSIONS: Shigellosis remains a highly endemic disease in Israel, but changes in the age-related peak incidence indicate that the pattern of spread is becoming more similar to other developed countries.

Measles control in Israel: a decade of the two-dose policy.

BACKGROUND AND METHODS: The introduction of routine measles immunization in Israel in 1967 was followed by a 95% reduction in reported measles incidence. In 1990, a second measles immunization dose was instituted, and up until the end of 1999, 16 birth cohorts were offered the second dose. We present here changes in reported measles incidence in Israel following institution of the two-dose policy. RESULTS: First-dose coverage is 94%, and coverage for the second school-based dose exceeds 95%. A further 90% reduction in measles incidence has been observed and, following a modest national outbreak in 1994, measles incidence for 1995-99 stands at less than 3/100,000/year. CONCLUSIONS: Since measles is highly contagious, very high immunization coverage rates will be required to preserve these accomplishments, and measles elimination is still years away, but there is tentative evidence that measles containment is at hand. Even greater measles control can be anticipated as vaccine immunogenicity improves and successive cohorts of children come under the 2-dose regimen.

The control of mumps in Israel.

BACKGROUND: Measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine replaced monovalent measles vaccine in the routine childhood vaccination schedule in Israel in December 1988, primarily to achieve the elimination of the congenital rubella syndrome. In this observational study, we report on changes in reported mumps incidence in Israel from the time of the introduction of MMR vaccine until the end of 1998. METHODS: The report is based upon passive national surveillance of mumps incidence, which has been notifiable in Israel since 1977. RESULTS: Reported mumps incidence in Israel is now less than 2% the pre-vaccine incidence. CONCLUSIONS: In the decade since the introduction of routine mumps vaccination in 1-year-olds in Israel, mumps control has been achieved. Although small outbreaks occur and may continue to occur in future years, because of under-vaccination of children, primary vaccine failure and waning immunity, it can tentatively be said that mumps is no longer a public health problem in Israel.

Epidemiological characteristics of spotted fever in Israel over 26 years.

During the summer of 1997, 2 confirmed and several suspected fatal cases of spotted fever (SF) occurred in previously healthy young adults in Israel. This unusual cluster of events stimulated the current study. The incidence of SF in Israel from 1971-98 was analyzed. Incidence increased until 1980, declined until 1994, and increased slightly from 1994-97. Incidence was higher during the summer, among children aged 0-9 years, and in rural settlements in central Israel. From 1971-1997, 31 deaths were reported, mostly in the elderly. The deaths that occurred in 1997 are a reminder that, despite the fact that morbidity due to SF is described mainly in children, SF can have a rapidly fatal outcome in healthy young adults. Thus, even during periods of low incidence, careful monitoring and high awareness for prompt diagnosis and treatment are needed.

Cutaneous leishmaniasis in Israel in the era of changing environment.

BACKGROUND: Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is a zoonotic disease, endemic and notifiable in Israel. The vectors are sandflies of the genus Phlebotomus, the hosts are mainly field rodents. The infective agents are Leishmania parasites. Ph. papatasi is the recognized vector of L. major, while Ph. sergenti is considered to be the vector of L. tropica. AIM: To increase awareness of leishmaniasis, enhance surveillance, and improve reporting. METHODS: Morbidity data were obtained from disease notifications reported to the Department of Epidemiology of the Israeli Ministry of Health. RESULTS: The annual number of reported CL cases during the period 1961-2000 varied between less than 10 to over 250, with rates varying between 0.13 to over 7 per 100,000. Two peaks, between 1967-1969 and 1980-1982, are clearly seen. These peaks reflect environmental changes caused by the introduction of non-immune people (mainly Jews) into the area of endemic foci, enhanced urbanization by expansion of settlements bordering this area, agricultural/industrial projects, and most probably the effect of Global Warming. Recently, an increasing trend in the prevalence of the disease has been reported also by the Palestinian Authority and countries in the Mediterranean basin, reflecting shared changes in modern demographic and environmental conditions. These factors include population growth and movements, as well as ecological changes. CONCLUSIONS: Cooperation of the Ministries of Health and Environment of the countries of the whole Middle East region in combating the vectors and the reservoirs in animal hosts are a major need.