Approximate likelihood-based estimation method of multiple-type pathogen interactions: An application to longitudinal pneumococcal carriage data.

While the serotypes of Streptococcus pneumoniae are known to compete during colonization in human hosts, our knowledge of how competition occurs is still incomplete. New insights of pneumococcal between-type competition could be generated from carriage data obtained by molecular-based detection methods, which record more complete sets of serotypes involved in co-carriage than when detection is done by culture. Here, we develop a Bayesian estimation method for inferring between-type interactions from longitudinal data recording the presence/absence of the types at discrete observation times. It allows inference from data containing co-carriage of two or more serotypes, which is often the case when pneumococcal presence is determined by molecular-based methods. The computational burden posed by the increased number of types detected in co-carriage is addressed by approximating the likelihood under a multi-state model with the likelihood of only those trajectories with minimum number of acquisition and clearance events between observation times. The proposed method's performance was validated on simulated data. The estimates of the interaction parameters of acquisition and clearance were unbiased in settings with short sampling intervals between observation times. With less frequent sampling, the estimates of the interaction parameters became more biased, but their ratio, which summarizes the total interaction, remained unbiased. Confounding due to unobserved heterogeneity in exposure could be corrected by including individual-level random effects. In an application to empirical data about pneumococcal carriage in infants, we found new evidence for between-serotype competition in clearance, although the effect size was small.

Haploinsufficiency of the NF1 gene is associated with protection against diabetes.

BACKGROUND: The hereditary predisposition to diabetes is only partially explained by genes identified so far. Neurofibromatosis type 1 (NF1) is a rare monogenic dominant syndrome caused by aberrations of the NF1 gene. Here, we used a cohort of 1410 patients with NF1 to study the association of the NF1 gene with type 1 (T1D) and type 2 diabetes (T2D). METHODS: A total of 1410 patients were confirmed to fulfil the National Institutes of Health diagnostic criteria for NF1 by individually reviewing their medical records. The patients with NF1 were compared with 14 017 controls matched for age, sex and area of residence as well as 1881 non-NF1 siblings of the patients with NF1. Register-based information on purchases of antidiabetic medication and hospital encounters related to diabetes were retrieved. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to calculate the relative risk for diabetes in NF1. RESULTS: Patients with NF1 showed a lower rate of T2D when compared with a 10-fold control cohort (HR 0.27, 95% CI 0.17 to 0.43) or with their siblings without NF1 (HR 0.28, 95% CI 0.16 to 0.47). The estimates remained practically unchanged after adjusting the analyses for history of obesity and dyslipidaemias. The rate of T1D in NF1 was decreased although statistically non-significantly (HR 0.58, 95% CI 0.27 to 1.25). CONCLUSION: Haploinsufficiency of the NF1 gene may protect against T2D and probably T1D. Since NF1 negatively regulates the Ras signalling pathway, the results suggest that the Ras pathway may be involved in the pathogenesis of diabetes.

Increased risk for dementia in neurofibromatosis type 1.

PURPOSE: To determine the risk for dementia in neurofibromatosis type 1 (NF1) using a Finnish nationwide cohort of individuals with NF1, and data from national registries. METHODS: A Finnish cohort of 1,349 individuals with confirmed NF1 according to the US National Institutes of Health (NIH) diagnostic criteria was compared with a control cohort of 13,870 individuals matched for age, sex, and area of residence. Dementia-related hospital visits were retrieved from the Finnish Care Register for Health Care using International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision (ICD-10) diagnosis codes G30 and F00-F03. Purchases of antidementia drugs were queried with Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical (ATC) classification code N06D from the drug reimbursement register maintained by the Social Insurance Institution of Finland. The follow-up spanned 1998-2014. RESULTS: Totals of 16 and 165 individuals with at least two dementia-related diagnoses or drug purchases were identified in the NF1 and control cohorts, respectively. The hazard ratio for dementia in NF1 was 1.67 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.00-2.80, P = 0.050). In an analysis stratified by the type of dementia, the risk for Alzheimer disease was increased in NF1 compared to controls with a hazard ratio of 2.88 (95% CI 1.47-5.66, P = 0.002). CONCLUSION: Dementia and especially Alzheimer disease are previously unrecognized neurological complications of NF1.

Social Distancing and SARS-CoV-2 Transmission Potential Early in the Epidemic in Finland.

BACKGROUND: Information about social mixing patterns under heavy social distancing is needed to model the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions on SARS-CoV-2 transmission. METHODS: We conducted a survey on daily person-to-person contacts during the early phase of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Finland, one month after strong social distancing measures had been introduced nationwide. We defined a contact as exchange of at least a few words in proximity of another person. We also considered physical ("skin-to-skin") contacts separately. Based on 3,171 reported contacts by 1,320 participants of 1-79 years of age, we estimated age-stratified contact matrices essential in modeling virus transmission. RESULTS: Compared with contacts during prepandemic conditions, as learned from the Finnish part of the Polymod study, there was a 72% (95% credible interval, CI = 71, 74) reduction in the daily number of all contacts and a 69% (95% CI = 66, 73) reduction in the daily number of physical contacts in April 2020. The largest reduction, of almost 90%, occurred in physical contacts by individuals more than 70 years of age. The estimated reduction in the transmission potential of the virus attributable solely to reduced contact frequencies varied between 59% (whole population; physical contacts; 95% CI = 52, 68) and 77% (over 20-year olds; physical contacts; 95% CI = 70, 89). CONCLUSIONS: We surmise that the large reduction in the daily numbers of social contacts in the early part of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Finland was likely a major contributor to the steady decline of the epidemic in the country since early April.

Mitigation of biases in estimating hazard ratios under non-sensitive and non-specific observation of outcomes-applications to influenza vaccine effectiveness.

BACKGROUND: Non-sensitive and non-specific observation of outcomes in time-to-event data affects event counts as well as the risk sets, thus, biasing the estimation of hazard ratios. We investigate how imperfect observation of incident events affects the estimation of vaccine effectiveness based on hazard ratios. METHODS: Imperfect time-to-event data contain two classes of events: a portion of the true events of interest; and false-positive events mistakenly recorded as events of interest. We develop an estimation method utilising a weighted partial likelihood and probabilistic deletion of false-positive events and assuming the sensitivity and the false-positive rate are known. The performance of the method is evaluated using simulated and Finnish register data. RESULTS: The novel method enables unbiased semiparametric estimation of hazard ratios from imperfect time-to-event data. False-positive rates that are small can be approximated to be zero without inducing bias. The method is robust to misspecification of the sensitivity as long as the ratio of the sensitivity in the vaccinated and the unvaccinated is specified correctly and the cumulative risk of the true event is small. CONCLUSIONS: The weighted partial likelihood can be used to adjust for outcome measurement errors in the estimation of hazard ratios and effectiveness but requires specifying the sensitivity and the false-positive rate. In absence of exact information about these parameters, the method works as a tool for assessing the potential magnitude of bias given a range of likely parameter values.

Spotlight influenza: Estimation of influenza vaccine effectiveness in elderly people with assessment of residual confounding by negative control outcomes, Finland, 2012/13 to 2019/20.

BackgroundCohort studies on vaccine effectiveness are prone to confounding bias if the distribution of risk factors is unbalanced between vaccinated and unvaccinated study subjects.AimWe aimed to estimate influenza vaccine effectiveness in the elderly population in Finland by controlling for a sufficient set of confounders based on routinely available register data.MethodsFor each of the eight consecutive influenza seasons from 2012/13 through 2019/20, we conducted a cohort study comparing the hazards of laboratory-confirmed influenza in vaccinated and unvaccinated people aged 65-100 years using individual-level medical and demographic data. Vaccine effectiveness was estimated as 1 minus the hazard ratio adjusted for the confounders age, sex, vaccination history, nights hospitalised in the past and presence of underlying chronic conditions. To assess the adequacy of the selected set of confounders, we estimated hazard ratios of off-season hospitalisation for acute respiratory infection as a negative control outcome.ResultsEach analysed cohort comprised around 1 million subjects, of whom 37% to 49% were vaccinated. Vaccine effectiveness against laboratory-confirmed influenza ranged from 16% (95% confidence interval (CI): 12-19) to 48% (95% CI: 41-54). More than 80% of the laboratory-confirmed cases were hospitalised. The adjusted off-season hazard ratio estimates varied between 1.00 (95% CI: 0.94-1.05) and 1.08 (95% CI: 1.01-1.15), indicating that residual confounding was absent or negligible.ConclusionSeasonal influenza vaccination reduces the hazard of severe influenza disease in vaccinated elderly people. Data about age, sex, vaccination history and utilisation of hospital care proved sufficient to control confounding.

Effectiveness of 2 Influenza Vaccines in Nationwide Cohorts of Finnish 2-Year-Old Children in the Seasons 2015-2016 Through 2017-2018.

BACKGROUND: From 2015-2016 through 2017-2018, injectable, trivalent inactivated influenza vaccines (IIV3) and a nasal spray, tetravalent live-attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV4) were used in parallel in Finland. To understand how well vaccination with each vaccine type protected children against influenza under real-life conditions, vaccine effectiveness in 2-year-olds was estimated for all 3 seasons. METHODS: Each season, a nationwide register-based cohort study was conducted. The study population comprised 60 088, 60 860, and 60 345 children in 2015-2016, 2016-2017, and 2017-2018, respectively. Laboratory-confirmed influenza was the study outcome. Seasonal influenza vaccination with either LAIV4 or IIV3 was the time-dependent exposure of interest. Vaccine effectiveness was defined as 1 minus the hazard ratio comparing vaccinated with unvaccinated children. RESULTS: From 2015-2016 through 2017-2018, the effectiveness of LAIV4 against influenza of any virus type was estimated at 54.2% (95% confidence interval, 32.2-69.0%), 20.3% (-12.7%, 43.6%), and 30.5% (10.9-45.9%); the corresponding effectiveness of IIV3 was 77.2% (48.9-89.8%), 24.5% (-29.8%, 56.1%), and -20.1% (-61.5%, 10.7%). Neither influenza vaccine clearly excelled in protecting children. The LAIV4 effectiveness against type B was greater than against type A and greater than the IIV3 effectiveness against type B. CONCLUSIONS: To understand how influenza vaccines could be improved, vaccine effectiveness must be analyzed by vaccine and virus type. Effectiveness estimates also expressing overall protection levels are needed to guide individual and programmatic decision-making processes. Supported by this analysis, the vaccination program in Finland now recommends LAIV4 and injectable, tetravalent inactivated influenza vaccines replacing IIV3.

Changing epidemiology of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in a low endemicity area-new challenges for MRSA control.

The incidence of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) has increased sharply in Hospital District of Southwest Finland (HD). To understand reasons behind this, a retrospective, population-based study covering 10 years was conducted. All new 983 MRSA cases in HD from January 2007 to December 2016 were analysed. Several data sources were used to gather background information on the cases. MRSA cases were classified as healthcare-associated (HA-MRSA), community-associated (CA-MRSA), and livestock contact was determined (livestock-associated MRSA, LA-MRSA). Spa typing was performed to all available strains. The incidence of MRSA doubled from 12.4 to 24.9 cases/100000 persons/year. The proportion of clinical infections increased from 25 to 32% in the 5-year periods, respectively, (p < 0.05). The median age decreased from 61 years in 2007 to 30 years in 2016. HA-MRSA accounted for 68% of all cases, of which 32% associated with 26 healthcare outbreaks. The proportion of CA-MRSA cases increased from 13% in 2007 to 43% in 2016. Of CA-MRSA cases, 43% were among family clusters, 32% in immigrants and 4% were LA-MRSA. The Gini-Simpson diversity index for spa types increased from 0.86 to 0.95 from the first to the second 5-year period. The proportion of a predominant strain t172 decreased from 43% in 2009 to 7% in 2016. The rise in the proportion of CA-MRSA, the switch to younger age groups, the complexity of possible transmission routes and the growing spa-type diversity characterize our current MRSA landscape. This creates challenges for targeted infection control measures, demanding further studies.

Cohort study design for estimating the effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccines in real time based on register data: The Finnish example.

This paper presents the principles of implementing register-based cohort studies as currently applied for real-time estimation of influenza vaccine effectiveness in Finland. All required information is retrieved from computerised national registers and deterministically linked via the unique personal identity code assigned to each Finnish resident. The study cohorts comprise large subpopulations eligible for a free seasonal influenza vaccination as part of the National Vaccination Programme. The primary outcome is laboratory-confirmed influenza. Each study subject is taken to be at risk of experiencing the outcome from the onset of the influenza season until the first of the following three events occurs: outcome, loss to follow up or end of season. Seasonal influenza vaccination is viewed as time-dependent exposure. Accordingly, each subject may contribute unvaccinated and vaccinated person-time during their time at risk. The vaccine effectiveness is estimated as one minus the influenza incidence rate ratio comparing the vaccinated with the unvaccinated within the study cohorts. Data collection in register-based research is an almost fully automated process. The effort, resources and the time spent in the field are relatively small compared to other observational study designs. This advantage is pivotal when vaccine effectiveness estimates are needed in real time. The paper outlines possible limitations of register-based cohort studies. It also addresses the need to explore how national and subnational registers available in the Nordic countries and elsewhere can be utilised in vaccine effectiveness research to guide decision making and to improve individual health as well as public health.

Surveillance of Circulating Bordetella pertussis Strains in Europe during 1998 to 2015.

One reason for increased pertussis incidence is the adaptation of Bordetella pertussis to vaccine-induced immunity by modulating its genomic structure. This study, EUpert IV, includes 265 isolates collected from nine European countries during 2012 to 2015 (n = 265) and compares the results to previous EUpert I to III studies (1998 to 2009). The analyses included genotyping, serotyping, pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE), and multilocus variable-number tandem-repeat analysis (MLVA). Genotyping results showed only small variations among the common virulence genes of B. pertussis The frequencies of serotypes Fim2 and Fim3 varied among the four collections. Genomic analyses showed that MLVA type 27 increased to 80% between the periods of 1998 to 2001 and 2012 to 2015. Two PFGE profiles, BpSR3 (29.4%) and BpSR10 (27.2%), constituted more than 50% of the circulating isolates in the present collection. Our study indicates that the European B. pertussis population is changing and became more homogenous after the introduction of acellular pertussis vaccines.

18F-FDG-PET/CT based total metabolic tumor volume change during neoadjuvant chemotherapy predicts outcome in advanced epithelial ovarian cancer.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the predictive potential of total metabolic tumor volume (MTV) reduction during neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) with 18F-FDG-PET/CT in an advanced FIGO stage III/IV epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) patient cohort. METHODS: Twenty-nine primarily inoperable EOC patients underwent 18F-FDG-PET/CT before and after NACT. The pre- and post-NACT total MTV, in addition to the percentage MTV reduction during NACT, were compared with primary therapy outcome and progression-free survival (PFS). ROC-analysis determined an optimal threshold for MTV reduction identifying patients with progressive or stable disease (PD/SD) at the end of primary therapy. A multivariate analysis with residual tumor (0/>0), FIGO stage (III/IV) and MTV reduction compared to PFS was performed. The association between MTV reduction and overall survival (OS) was evaluated. RESULTS: The median pre- and post-NACT total MTV were 352 cm3 (range 150 to 1322 cm3) and 51 cm3 (range 0 to 417 cm3), respectively. The median MTV reduction during NACT was 89% (range 24% to 100%). Post-NACT MTV and MTV reduction associated with primary therapy outcome (MTV post-NACT p = 0.007, MTV reduction p = 0.001) and PFS (MTV post-NACT p = 0.005, MTV reduction p = 0.005). MTV reduction <85% identified the PD/SD patients (sensitivity 70%, specificity 78%, AUC 0.79). In a multivariate analysis, MTV reduction (p = 0.002) and FIGO stage (p = 0.003) were statistically significant variables associated with PFS. MTV reduction during NACT corresponded to OS (p = 0.05). CONCLUSION: 18F-FDG-PET/CT is helpful in NACT response evaluation. Patients with total MTV reduction <85% during NACT might be candidates for second-line chemotherapy and clinical trials, instead of interval debulking surgery.

Acquisition and Transmission of Streptococcus pneumoniae Are Facilitated during Rhinovirus Infection in Families with Children.

RATIONALE: Laboratory and clinical evidence suggests synergy between rhinoviruses and Streptococcus pneumoniae in the pathogenesis of respiratory tract infections. However, it is unclear whether rhinoviruses promote pneumococcal acquisition and transmission. OBJECTIVES: To describe the impact of rhinovirus infection on the acquisition and transmission of pneumococci within families with children. METHODS: We investigated 29 families with at least two children. The follow-up started at the onset of respiratory infectious symptoms in any family member and consisted of daily symptom diary and nasal swab samples from each participant twice per week for 3 weeks. Swabs were taken by the parents and sent to a study clinic by mail. Rhinoviruses were detected by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction and typed by sequencing. Pneumococci were identified by an antigen test and by standard culture methods, serotyping, and whole-genome sequencing. The effect of rhinovirus infection on the rates of pneumococcal acquisition and within-family transmission was estimated from the observed acquisition events and person-times spent uncolonized, using Poisson regression. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Rhinovirus was detected in 38 subjects (30%) at the onset and in 86 subjects (67%) during the follow-up. S. pneumoniae was detected on the first day in 9 (7%) and during follow-up in 38 (30%) subjects. Children with rhinovirus infection had a 4.3-fold rate of pneumococcal acquisition from the community (95% confidence interval, 1.1-15.4) and a 14.8-fold rate of within-family transmission (95% confidence interval, 3.1-69.6) compared with children without rhinovirus infection. CONCLUSIONS: Rhinovirus infection within families facilitates acquisition and within-family transmission of S. pneumoniae.

Simulations for designing and interpreting intervention trials in infectious diseases.

BACKGROUND: Interventions in infectious diseases can have both direct effects on individuals who receive the intervention as well as indirect effects in the population. In addition, intervention combinations can have complex interactions at the population level, which are often difficult to adequately assess with standard study designs and analytical methods. DISCUSSION: Herein, we urge the adoption of a new paradigm for the design and interpretation of intervention trials in infectious diseases, particularly with regard to emerging infectious diseases, one that more accurately reflects the dynamics of the transmission process. In an increasingly complex world, simulations can explicitly represent transmission dynamics, which are critical for proper trial design and interpretation. Certain ethical aspects of a trial can also be quantified using simulations. Further, after a trial has been conducted, simulations can be used to explore the possible explanations for the observed effects. CONCLUSION: Much is to be gained through a multidisciplinary approach that builds collaborations among experts in infectious disease dynamics, epidemiology, statistical science, economics, simulation methods, and the conduct of clinical trials.

Revealing the True Incidence of Pandemic A(H1N1)pdm09 Influenza in Finland during the First Two Seasons - An Analysis Based on a Dynamic Transmission Model.

The threat of the new pandemic influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 imposed a heavy burden on the public health system in Finland in 2009-2010. An extensive vaccination campaign was set up in the middle of the first pandemic season. However, the true number of infected individuals remains uncertain as the surveillance missed a large portion of mild infections. We constructed a transmission model to simulate the spread of influenza in the Finnish population. We used the model to analyse the two first years (2009-2011) of A(H1N1)pdm09 in Finland. Using data from the national surveillance of influenza and data on close person-to-person (social) contacts in the population, we estimated that 6% (90% credible interval 5.1 - 6.7%) of the population was infected with A(H1N1)pdm09 in the first pandemic season (2009/2010) and an additional 3% (2.5 - 3.5%) in the second season (2010/2011). Vaccination had a substantial impact in mitigating the second season. The dynamic approach allowed us to discover how the proportion of detected cases changed over the course of the epidemic. The role of time-varying reproduction number, capturing the effects of weather and changes in behaviour, was important in shaping the epidemic.

Estimation and interpretation of heterogeneous vaccine efficacy against recurrent infections.

Vaccine-induced protection may not be homogeneous across individuals. It is possible that a vaccine gives complete protection for a portion of individuals, while the rest acquire only incomplete (leaky) protection of varying magnitude. If vaccine efficacy is estimated under wrong assumptions about such individual level heterogeneity, the resulting estimates may be difficult to interpret. For instance, population-level predictions based on such estimates may be biased. We consider the problem of estimating heterogeneous vaccine efficacy against an infection that can be acquired multiple times (susceptible-infected-susceptible model). The estimation is based on a limited number of repeated measurements of the current status of each individual, a situation commonly encountered in practice. We investigate how the placement of consecutive samples affects the estimability and efficiency of vaccine efficacy parameters. The same sampling frequency may not be optimal for efficient estimation of all components of heterogeneous vaccine protection. However, we suggest practical guidelines allowing estimation of all components. For situations in which the estimability of individual components fails, we suggest to use summary measures of vaccine efficacy.

Optimal serotype compositions for Pneumococcal conjugate vaccination under serotype replacement.

Pneumococcal conjugate vaccination has proved highly effective in eliminating vaccine-type pneumococcal carriage and disease. However, the potential adverse effects of serotype replacement remain a major concern when implementing routine childhood pneumococcal conjugate vaccination programmes. Applying a concise predictive model, we present a ready-to-use quantitative tool to investigate the implications of serotype replacement on the net effectiveness of vaccination against invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) and to guide in the selection of optimal vaccine serotype compositions. We utilise pre-vaccination data on pneumococcal carriage and IPD and assume partial or complete elimination of vaccine-type carriage, its replacement by non-vaccine-type carriage, and stable case-to-carrier ratios (probability of IPD per carriage episode). The model predicts that the post-vaccination IPD incidences in Finland for currently available vaccine serotype compositions can eventually decrease among the target age group of children <5 years of age by 75%. However, due to replacement through herd effects, the decrease among the older population is predicted to be much less (20-40%). We introduce a sequential algorithm for the search of optimal serotype compositions and assess the robustness of inferences to uncertainties in data and assumptions about carriage and IPD. The optimal serotype composition depends on the age group of interest and some serotypes may be highly beneficial vaccine types in one age category (e.g. 6B in children), while being disadvantageous in another. The net effectiveness will be improved only if the added serotype has a higher case-to-carrier ratio than the average case-to-carrier ratio of the current non-vaccine types and the degree of improvement in effectiveness depends on the carriage incidence of the serotype. The serotype compositions of currently available pneumococcal vaccines are not optimal and the effectiveness of vaccination in the population at large could be improved by including new serotypes in the vaccine (e.g. 22 and 9N).

Divergent coverage, frequency and costs of organised and opportunistic Pap testing in Finland.

We evaluated the overall coverage, frequency and costs of Pap testing by screening modality and health care provider in Finland. Information about Pap testing in the Finnish female population of 2.7 million was obtained from nationwide population-based registry data. Among women aged 25-69 years, 87% had had a Pap test taken within or outside the organised programme at least once during the last 5 years and half of those screened in the organised programme had also had at least one Pap test taken outside the programme. Of the annual average of 530,000 Pap tests taken, 84% were taken for screening purposes and 16% as follow-up. Forty percent of the 446,000 annual screening tests were taken in the organised programme, 55% as opportunistic tests in public primary or student health care or by private providers and 5% in public secondary health care. One-fifth of all opportunistic screening Pap tests were taken from women aged <25. The voluminous opportunistic Pap testing in public primary health care was concentrated in young women aged 25-29 whereas the bulk of opportunistic testing in private health occurred in age groups eligible for organised screening. The total cost of all screening Pap tests was €22.4 million, of which 71% incurred in opportunistic screening. Of the 84,000 annual follow-up Pap tests and their €8.3 million total costs, ∼60% incurred in organised screening or in secondary health care.

Hypertension in NF1: A closer look at the primacy of essential hypertension versus secondary causes.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to analyze hypertension in neurofibromatosis type 1 (NF1) in a Finnish population-based cohort in 1996-2014. METHODS: A cohort of 1365 individuals with confirmed NF1 was compared with a control cohort of 13,923 individuals matched for age, sex, and area of residence. Diagnoses of hypertension were retrieved from the Finnish Care Register for Health Care. These registered data were separately analyzed for secondary and essential hypertension. Purchases of antihypertensive drugs were queried from the Finnish Register of Reimbursed Drug Purchases. RESULTS: We identified 115 NF1 patients with hospital diagnosis of hypertension. Our findings revealed a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.64 (95% CI 1.34-2.00, p < 0.001) in NF1 versus controls. NF1 patients presented with a significantly increased hazard for both secondary hypertension (n = 9, HR 3.76, 95% CI 1.77-7.95, p < 0.001) and essential hypertension (n = 98, HR 1.73, 95% CI 1.39-2.14, p < 0.001). No difference in the HR of hypertension was observed between men and women, while NF1 patients with essential hypertension were, on average, younger than the controls. The proportions of individuals with antihypertensive medication did not differ between NF1 patients and controls (OR 0.85). CONCLUSION: NF1 is a risk factor for hypertension. Despite the recognized risk for secondary hypertension, essential hypertension is the predominant type in NF1.

The burden and costs of prevention and management of genital disease caused by HPV in women: a population-based registry study in Finland.

The aim of this study was to evaluate the total burden and health care provider costs of prevention, management and treatment of HP-related genital disease outcomes including all organized and opportunistic screening tests. Information about HPV-related disease outcomes in the Finnish female population of 2.7 million was obtained from nationwide population-based registry data. We estimated the incidence, health care resource use, health provider costs and life years lost due to cervical, vaginal and vulvar cancer and intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN, VaIN, VIN), cervical adenocarcinoma in situ, and external genital warts. The average annual disease burden of HPV-related genital disease in the female population of Finland comprises altogether 241 cases of cervical, vaginal and vulvar cancer, 2,898 new cases of CIN, 34,432 cases of minor cytological abnormalities, and almost 4,000 cases of external genital warts. The total annual costs of screening, further diagnostics and treatment of HPV-related genital disease were € 44.7 million of which the annual costs due to cervical cancer screening were € 22.4 million and due to diagnostics, management and treatment of HPV-related genital disease outcomes were € 22.3 million. The latter included € 8.4 million due to minor cervical abnormalities detected by the current cervical screening practice. The extensive opportunistic Pap testing fails to keep the incidence of cervical cancer from increasing among women aged 30-34. In addition opportunistic screening among this and younger age group detects a significant number of cytological abnormalities, most of which are probably treated unnecessarily.

Dynamics of pneumococcal transmission in vaccine-naive children and their HIV-infected or HIV-uninfected mothers during the first 2 years of life.

Pneumococcal vaccine-naïve mother-child dyads in South Africa had nasopharyngeal swabs taken 9 times within the first 2 years of the children's lives between January 2007 and May 2009. To quantify the strength of the association of serotype-specific carriage in mother-child dyads, a stochastic transmission model was fitted to the data. Children were more susceptible to individual serotypes included in the 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) transmitted by their mothers than vice versa; however, children infected their mothers with these serotypes more frequently than mothers infected children. The child-to-mother steady-state forces of pneumococcal acquisition were between 0.36 and 3.29 (per 1,000 days) compared with 0.06-0.51 for mother-to-child transmission. Although children of mothers infected with human immunodeficiency virus were more often exposed to PCV7 serotypes by their mothers, their risk of acquisition remained low compared with the risk of child-to-mother transmission. Mothers acquired pneumococci at lower rates (per 1,000 days) from unmeasured exposure within families and in the wider community (range, 0.12-1.69 per 1,000 days) than did children (range, 1.10-5.21 per 1,000 days). Pneumococcal immunization of young children is expected to have an indirect effect of reducing PCV7 serotype maternal colonization and possibly disease even in settings such as ours, in which there is a high prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus-infected mothers.