A novel application of data-consistent inversion to overcome spurious inference in genome-wide association studies.

The genome-wide association studies (GWAS) typically use linear or logistic regression models to identify associations between phenotypes (traits) and genotypes (genetic variants) of interest. However, the use of regression with the additive assumption has potential limitations. First, the normality assumption of residuals is the one that is rarely seen in practice, and deviation from normality increases the Type-I error rate. Second, building a model based on such an assumption ignores genetic structures, like, dominant, recessive, and protective-risk cases. Ignoring genetic variants may result in spurious conclusions about the associations between a variant and a trait. We propose an assumption-free model built upon data-consistent inversion (DCI), which is a recently developed measure-theoretic framework utilized for uncertainty quantification. This proposed DCI-derived model builds a nonparametric distribution on model inputs that propagates to the distribution of observed data without the required normality assumption of residuals in the regression model. This characteristic enables the proposed DCI-derived model to cover all genetic variants without emphasizing on additivity of the classic-GWAS model. Simulations and a replication GWAS with data from the COPDGene demonstrate the ability of this model to control the Type-I error rate at least as well as the classic-GWAS (additive linear model) approach while having similar or greater power to discover variants in different genetic modes of transmission.

Longitudinal Assessment of Multimorbidity Medication Patterns among Smokers in the COPDGene Cohort.

Background and objectives: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is usually comorbid with other chronic diseases. We aimed to assess the multimorbidity medication patterns and explore if the patterns are similar for phase 1 (P1) and 5-year follow-up phase 2 (P2) in the COPDGene cohort. Materials and Methods: A total of 5564 out of 10,198 smokers from the COPDGene cohort who completed 2 visits, P1 and P2 visits, with complete medication use history were included in the study. We conducted latent class analysis (LCA) among the 27 categories of chronic disease medications, excluding COPD treatments and cancer medications at P1 and P2 separately. The best number of LCA classes was determined through both statistical fit and interpretation of the patterns. Results: We found four classes of medication patterns at both phases. LCA showed that both phases shared similar characteristics in their medication patterns: LC0: low medication; LC1: hypertension (HTN) or cardiovascular disease (CVD)+high cholesterol (Hychol) medication predominant; LC2: HTN/CVD+type 2 diabetes (T2D) +Hychol medication predominant; LC3: Hychol medication predominant. Conclusions: We found similar multimorbidity medication patterns among smokers at P1 and P2 in the COPDGene cohort, which provides an understanding of how multimorbidity medication clustered and how different chronic diseases combine in smokers.

Phosphorylation potential of Drosophila E-Cadherin intracellular domain is essential for development and adherens junction biosynthetic dynamics regulation.

Phosphorylation of a highly conserved serine cluster in the intracellular domain of E-Cadherin is essential for binding to ß-Catenin in vitro In cultured cells, phosphorylation of specific serine residues within the cluster is also required for regulation of adherens junction (AJ) stability and dynamics. However, much less is known about how such phosphorylation of E-Cadherin regulates AJ formation and dynamics in vivo In this report, we generated an extensive array of Drosophila E-Cadherin (DE-Cad) endogenous knock-in alleles that carry mutations targeting this highly conserved serine cluster. Analyses of these mutations suggest that the overall phosphorylation potential, rather than the potential site-specific phosphorylation, of the serine cluster enhances the recruitment of ß-Catenin by DE-Cad in vivo Moreover, phosphorylation potential of the serine cluster only moderately increases the level of ß-Catenin in AJs and is in fact dispensable for AJ formation in vivo Nonetheless, phosphorylation-dependent recruitment of ß-Catenin is essential for development, probably by enhancing the interactions between DE-Cad and α-Catenin. In addition, several phospho-mutations dramatically reduced the biosynthetic turnover rate of DE-Cad during apical-basal polarization, and such biosynthetically stable DE-Cad mutants specifically rescued the polarity defects in embryonic epithelia lacking the polarity proteins Stardust and Crumbs.

Targeted Sequencing Study to Uncover Shared Genetic Susceptibility Between Peripheral Artery Disease and Coronary Heart Disease-Brief Report.

Objective- It is unclear to what extent genetic susceptibility variants are shared between peripheral artery disease (PAD) and coronary heart disease (CHD), both manifestations of atherosclerotic vascular disease. We investigated whether common and low-frequency/rare variants in loci associated with CHD are also associated with PAD. Approach and Results- Targeted sequencing of 41 genomic regions associated with CHD in genome-wide association studies was performed in 1749 PAD cases (65±11 years, 61% men) and 1855 controls (60±11 years, 56% men) of European ancestry. PAD cases had a resting/postexercise ankle-brachial index ≤0.9, or history of lower extremity revascularization; controls had no history of PAD. We tested the association of common (defined as minor allele frequency ≥5%) variants with PAD assuming an additive genetic model with adjustment for age and sex. To identify low-frequency/rare variants (minor allele frequency <5%) associated with PAD, we conducted gene-level analyses using sequence kernel association test and permutation test. After Bonferroni correction, we found common variants in SH2B3, ABO, and ZEB2 to be associated with PAD ( P<4.5×10-5). At the gene level, the strongest associations were for LPL and SH2B3. Conclusions- Targeted sequencing of 41 genomic regions associated with CHD revealed several common variants/genes to be associated with PAD, highlighting the basis of shared genetic susceptibility between CHD and PAD.

A New Semiparametric Approach to Finite Mixture of Regressions using Penalized Regression via Fusion.

For some modeling problems a population may be better assessed as an aggregate of unknown subpopulations, each with a distinct relationship between a response and associated variables. The finite mixture of regressions (FMR) model, in which an outcome is derived from one of a finite number of linear regression models, is a natural tool in this setting. In this article, we first propose a new penalized regression approach. Then, we demonstrate how the proposed approach better identifies subpopulations and their corresponding models than a semiparametric FMR method does. Our new method fits models for each person via grouping pursuit, utilizing a new group-truncated L 1 penalty that shrinks the differences between estimated parameter vectors. The methodology causes the individuals' models to cluster into a few common models, in turn revealing previously unknown subpopulations. In fact, by varying the penalty strength, the new method can reveal a hierarchical structure among the subpopulations that can be useful in exploratory analyses. Simulations using FMR models and a real-data analysis show that the method performs promisingly well.

PHACTR1 Is a Genetic Susceptibility Locus for Fibromuscular Dysplasia Supporting Its Complex Genetic Pattern of Inheritance.

Fibromuscular dysplasia (FMD) is a nonatherosclerotic vascular disease leading to stenosis, dissection and aneurysm affecting mainly the renal and cerebrovascular arteries. FMD is often an underdiagnosed cause of hypertension and stroke, has higher prevalence in females (~80%) but its pathophysiology is unclear. We analyzed ~26K common variants (MAF>0.05) generated by exome-chip arrays in 249 FMD patients and 689 controls. We replicated 13 loci (P<10-4) in 402 cases and 2,537 controls and confirmed an association between FMD and a variant in the phosphatase and actin regulator 1 gene (PHACTR1). Three additional case control cohorts including 512 cases and 669 replicated this result and overall reached the genomic level of significance (OR = 1.39, P = 7.4×10-10, 1,154 cases and 3,895 controls). The top variant, rs9349379, is intronic to PHACTR1, a risk locus for coronary artery disease, migraine, and cervical artery dissection. The analyses of geometrical parameters of carotids from ~2,500 healthy volunteers indicate higher intima media thickness (P = 1.97×10-4) and wall to lumen ratio (P = 0.002) in rs9349379-A carriers, suggesting indices of carotid hypertrophy previously described in carotids of FMD patients. Immunohistochemistry detected PHACTR1 in endothelium and smooth muscle cells of FMD and normal human carotids. The expression of PHACTR1 by genotypes in primary human fibroblasts showed higher expression in rs9349379-A carriers (N = 86, P = 0.003). Phactr1 knockdown in zebrafish resulted in dilated vessels indicating subtle impaired vascular development. We report the first susceptibility locus for FMD and provide evidence for a complex genetic pattern of inheritance and indices of shared pathophysiology between FMD and other cardiovascular and neurovascular diseases.

Incorporating a Genetic Risk Score Into Coronary Heart Disease Risk Estimates: Effect on Low-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol Levels (the MI-GENES Clinical Trial).

BACKGROUND: Whether knowledge of genetic risk for coronary heart disease (CHD) affects health-related outcomes is unknown. We investigated whether incorporating a genetic risk score (GRS) in CHD risk estimates lowers low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) levels. METHODS AND RESULTS: Participants (n=203, 45-65 years of age, at intermediate risk for CHD, and not on statins) were randomly assigned to receive their 10-year probability of CHD based either on a conventional risk score (CRS) or CRS + GRS ((+)GRS). Participants in the (+)GRS group were stratified as having high or average/low GRS. Risk was disclosed by a genetic counselor followed by shared decision making regarding statin therapy with a physician. We compared the primary end point of LDL-C levels at 6 months and assessed whether any differences were attributable to changes in dietary fat intake, physical activity levels, or statin use. Participants (mean age, 59.4±5 years; 48% men; mean 10-year CHD risk, 8.5±4.1%) were allocated to receive either CRS (n=100) or (+)GRS (n=103). At the end of the study period, the (+)GRS group had a lower LDL-C than the CRS group (96.5±32.7 versus 105.9±33.3 mg/dL; P=0.04). Participants with high GRS had lower LDL-C levels (92.3±32.9 mg/dL) than CRS participants (P=0.02) but not participants with low GRS (100.9±32.2 mg/dL; P=0.18). Statins were initiated more often in the (+)GRS group than in the CRS group (39% versus 22%, P<0.01). No significant differences in dietary fat intake and physical activity levels were noted. CONCLUSIONS: Disclosure of CHD risk estimates that incorporated genetic risk information led to lower LDL-C levels than disclosure of CHD risk based on conventional risk factors alone. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01936675.

Inactivating mutations in NPC1L1 and protection from coronary heart disease.

BACKGROUND: Ezetimibe lowers plasma levels of low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol by inhibiting the activity of the Niemann-Pick C1-like 1 (NPC1L1) protein. However, whether such inhibition reduces the risk of coronary heart disease is not known. Human mutations that inactivate a gene encoding a drug target can mimic the action of an inhibitory drug and thus can be used to infer potential effects of that drug. METHODS: We sequenced the exons of NPC1L1 in 7364 patients with coronary heart disease and in 14,728 controls without such disease who were of European, African, or South Asian ancestry. We identified carriers of inactivating mutations (nonsense, splice-site, or frameshift mutations). In addition, we genotyped a specific inactivating mutation (p.Arg406X) in 22,590 patients with coronary heart disease and in 68,412 controls. We tested the association between the presence of an inactivating mutation and both plasma lipid levels and the risk of coronary heart disease. RESULTS: With sequencing, we identified 15 distinct NPC1L1 inactivating mutations; approximately 1 in every 650 persons was a heterozygous carrier for 1 of these mutations. Heterozygous carriers of NPC1L1 inactivating mutations had a mean LDL cholesterol level that was 12 mg per deciliter (0.31 mmol per liter) lower than that in noncarriers (P=0.04). Carrier status was associated with a relative reduction of 53% in the risk of coronary heart disease (odds ratio for carriers, 0.47; 95% confidence interval, 0.25 to 0.87; P=0.008). In total, only 11 of 29,954 patients with coronary heart disease had an inactivating mutation (carrier frequency, 0.04%) in contrast to 71 of 83,140 controls (carrier frequency, 0.09%). CONCLUSIONS: Naturally occurring mutations that disrupt NPC1L1 function were found to be associated with reduced plasma LDL cholesterol levels and a reduced risk of coronary heart disease. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health and others.).

Motivation, Perception, and Treatment Beliefs in the Myocardial Infarction Genes (MI-GENES) Randomized Clinical Trial.

Little is known about individuals' motivation, perception, and treatment beliefs towards the use of genetic information in risk estimates for coronary heart disease (CHD). In this study, participants at intermediate 10-year risk of CHD were randomized to receive either their estimated conventional risk score (CRS) alone, or a CRS and a genetic risk score (GRS), by a genetic counselor. Surveys on motivation to participate in and perception of genetic testing for CHD were administered at 3 months and treatment beliefs at 6 months following risk disclosure. Survey responses used Likert scales. Linear and logistic regression were used for analysis. Overall, motivation to participate in genomic clinical trials was favorable and did not differ between the CRS and GRS groups (16.95 ± 0.82 vs. 17.58 ± 0.83, p = 0.091), but participants who initially received their GRS indicated a greater desire to find ways to improve health as a reason for participation (OR: 0.53 (95%CI: 0.29, 0.94), p = 0.028). Perception of genetic testing was also favorable in both groups (15.29 ± 0.39 vs. 15.12 ± 0.40, p = 0.835). Participants who initially received their GRS were more inclined to recommend genetic testing to family and friends (9.95 ± 1.88 vs. 10.52 ± 2.17, p = 0.023). In the MI-GENES study, motivation to participate in and perception of genetic testing among study participants were overall favorable. Genetic risk disclosure was associated with increased motivation to recommend genetic testing to family and friends.

A Novel Statistic for Global Association Testing Based on Penalized Regression.

Natural genetic structures like genes may contain multiple variants that work as a group to determine a biologic outcome. The effect of rare variants, mutations occurring in less than 5% of samples, is hypothesized to be explained best as groups collectively associated with a biologic function. Therefore, it is important to develop powerful association tests to identify a true association between an outcome of interest and a group of variants, in particular a group with many rare variants. In this article we first delineate a novel penalized regression-based global test for the association between sets of variants and a disease phenotype. Next, we use Genetic Analysis Workshop 18 (GAW18) data to assess the power of the new global association test to capture a relationship between an aggregated group of variants and a simulated hypertension status. Rare variant only, common variant only, and combined variant groups are studied. The power values are compared to those obtained from eight well-regarded global tests (Score, Sum, SSU, SSUw, UminP, aSPU, aSPUw, and sequence kernel association test (SKAT)) that do not use penalized regression and a set of tests using either the SSU or score statistics and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator penalty (LASSO) logistic regression. Association testing of rare variants with our method was the top performer when there was low linkage disequilibrium (LD) between and within causal variants. This was similarly true when simultaneously testing rare and common variants in low LD scenarios. Finally, our method was able to provide meaningful variant-specific association information.

Family history of atherosclerotic vascular disease is associated with the presence of abdominal aortic aneurysm.

We investigated whether family history (FHx) of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) was associated with presence of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA). The study cohort comprised of 696 patients with AAA (70±8 years, 84% men) and 2686 controls (68±10 years, 61% men) recruited from noninvasive vascular and stress electrocardiogram (ECG) laboratories at Mayo Clinic. AAA was defined as a transverse diameter of abdominal aorta ⩾ 3 cm or history of AAA repair. Controls were not known to have AAA. FHx was defined as having at least one first-degree relative with aortic aneurysm or with onset of ASCVD (coronary, cerebral or peripheral artery disease) before age 65 years. FHx of aortic aneurysm or ASCVD were each associated with presence of AAA after adjustment for age, sex, conventional risk factors and ASCVD: adjusted odds ratios (OR; 95% confidence interval): 2.17 (1.66-2.83, p < 0.01) and 1.31 (1.08-1.59, p < 0.01), respectively. FHx of ASCVD remained associated with AAA after additional adjustment for FHx of aortic aneurysm: adjusted OR: 1.27 (1.05-1.55, p = 0.01). FHx of ASCVD in multiple arterial locations was associated with higher odds of having AAA: the adjusted odds were 1.23 times higher for each additionally affected arterial location reported in the FHx (1.08-1.40, p = 0.01). Our results suggest both unique and shared environmental and genetic factors mediating susceptibility to AAA and ASCVD.

Applications of machine learning and data mining methods to detect associations of rare and common variants with complex traits.

Machine learning methods (MLMs), designed to develop models using high-dimensional predictors, have been used to analyze genome-wide genetic and genomic data to predict risks for complex traits. We summarize the results from six contributions to our Genetic Analysis Workshop 18 working group; these investigators applied MLMs and data mining to analyses of rare and common genetic variants measured in pedigrees. To develop risk profiles, group members analyzed blood pressure traits along with single-nucleotide polymorphisms and rare variant genotypes derived from sequence and imputation analyses in large Mexican American pedigrees. Supervised MLMs included penalized regression with varying penalties, support vector machines, and permanental classification. Unsupervised MLMs included sparse principal components analysis and sparse graphical models. Entropy-based components analyses were also used to mine these data. None of the investigators fully capitalized on the genetic information provided by the complete pedigrees. Their approaches either corrected for the nonindependence of the individuals within the pedigrees or analyzed only those who were independent. Some methods allowed for covariate adjustment, whereas others did not. We evaluated these methods using a variety of metrics. Four contributors conducted primary analyses on the real data, and the other two research groups used the simulated data with and without knowledge of the underlying simulation model. One group used the answers to the simulated data to assess power and type I errors. Although the MLMs applied were substantially different, each research group concluded that MLMs have advantages over standard statistical approaches with these high-dimensional data.

Structure-based design of inhibitors of coagulation factor XIa with novel P1 moieties.

Compound 2 was previously identified as a potent inhibitor of factor XIa lacking oral bioavailability. A structure-based approach was used to design analogs of 2 with novel P1 moieties with good selectivity profiles and oral bioavailability. Further optimization of the P1 group led to the identification of a 4-chlorophenyltetrazole P1 analog, which when combined with further modifications to the linker and P2' group provided compound 32 with FXIa Ki=6.7 nM and modest oral exposure in dogs.

Training status diverges muscle diacylglycerol accumulation during free fatty acid elevation.

How endurance training alters muscle lipid metabolism while preserving insulin sensitivity remains unclear. Because acute free fatty acid (FFA) elevation by lipid infusion reduces insulin sensitivity, we hypothesized that training status would alter accumulation of muscle triacylglycerol (TAG), diacylglycerol (DAG), ceramide, and acylcarnitine during acute FFA elevation. Trained (n = 15) and sedentary (n = 13) participants matched for age, sex, and BMI received either a 6-h infusion of lipid (20% Intralipid at 90 ml/h) or glycerol (2.25 g/100 ml at 90 ml/h) during a hyperinsulinemic euglycemic clamp. Muscle biopsies were taken at 0, 120, and 360 min after infusion initiation to measure intramyocellular concentrations of TAG, DAG, ceramides, and acylcarnitines by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. Trained participants had a higher Vo2 max and insulin sensitivity than sedentary participants. The lipid infusion produced a comparable elevation of FFA (594 ± 90 µmol/l in trained, 721 ± 30 µmol/l in sedentary, P = 0.4) and a decline in insulin sensitivity (-44.7% trained vs. -47.2% sedentary, P = 0.89). In both groups, lipid infusion increased the linoleic and linolenic acid content of TAG without changing total TAG. In the sedentary group, lipid infusion increased total, oleic, and linoleic acid and linolenic acid content of DAG. Regardless of training status, lipid infusion did not alter total ceramide, saturated ceramide, palmitoyl-carnitine, or oleoyl-carnitine. We conclude that during acute FFA elevation, trained adults have a similar decline in insulin sensitivity with less accumulation of muscle DAG than sedentary adults, suggesting that lipid-induced insulin resistance can occur without elevation of total muscle DAG.

Cost effectiveness of radioembolization compared with conventional transarterial chemoembolization for treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma.

PURPOSE: To assess cost effectiveness of radioembolization versus conventional transarterial chemoembolization. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The cost of radioembolization versus conventional transarterial chemoembolization was determined based on Medicare reimbursements. Three patient subgroups were defined based on the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) classification system (A, B, or C). Efficacy and safety outcomes after each procedure were obtained from the literature. A Monte Carlo case-based simulation was designed for 60 months in 250 patients in each subgroup. Survival was calculated based on average survival from the literature and the Monte Carlo model. The primary outcome was the cost effectiveness of radioembolization over transarterial chemoembolization by considering calculated survival. RESULTS: The costs approached $17,000 for transarterial chemoembolization versus $31,000 or $48,000 for unilobar or bilobar radioembolization, respectively. Based on the simulation, median estimated survival was greater with transarterial chemoembolization than radioembolization in BCLC-A and BCLC-B subgroups (40 months vs 30 months and 23 months vs 16 months, respectively, P = .001). However, in the BCLC-C subgroup, survival was greater with radioembolization than transarterial chemoembolization (13 months vs 17 months, P = .001). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of radioembolization over transarterial chemoembolization in the BCLC-C subgroup was $360 per month. The results were dependent on bilobar versus unilobar radioembolization and the total number of radioembolization procedures. CONCLUSIONS: The model suggests radioembolization costs may be justified for patients with BCLC-C disease, whereas radioembolization may not be cost effective in patients with BCLC-A disease; however, many patients with BCLC-C disease have extensive disease precluding locoregional therapies. Secondary considerations may determine treatment choice in more borderline patients (BCLC-B disease) because there is no persistent survival benefit with radioembolization.

Shorter minimum p-wave duration is associated with paroxysmal lone atrial fibrillation.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Prolonged P-wave dispersion (PWD) and P-wave duration (PWdur) have been found to be associated with common atrial fibrillation (AF), but the association of P-wave indices with lone atrial fibrillation (LAF) is unclear. METHODS: We enrolled 61 paroxysmal LAF cases and 150 controls without AF. P-wave indices were measured from a 12-lead ECG. Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess the association between P-wave indices and LAF. RESULTS: PWD was longer in LAF patients (median, IQR; 54.1 [42.9-63.2] ms) than controls (46.0 [38.5-57.7] ms), P=0.03. MinPWdur was shorter in LAF patients (60.5 [50.7-72.6] ms) than controls (66.0 [55.5-76.4] ms), P=0.03. In multivariable models, only the association between shorter minPWdur and LAF remained statistically significant (OR [95% CI] per tertile increment in minPWdur, 0.64 [0.42-0.95], P=0.03). CONCLUSIONS: Unlike common AF, paroxysmal LAF is independently associated with shorter minPWdur. This finding suggests that both shorter and prolonged PWdur may be associated with increased risk of AF.

Differential regulation of adherens junction dynamics during apical-basal polarization.

Adherens junctions (AJs) in epithelial cells are constantly turning over to modulate adhesion properties under various physiological and developmental contexts, but how such AJ dynamics are regulated during the apical-basal polarization of primary epithelia remains unclear. Here, we used new and genetically validated GFP markers of Drosophila E-cadherin (DE-cadherin, hereafter referred to as DE-Cad) and ß-catenin (Armadillo, Arm) to quantitatively assay the in vivo dynamics of biosynthetic turnover and membrane redistribution by fluorescence recovery after photobleaching (FRAP) assays. Our data showed that membrane DE-Cad and Arm in AJs of polarizing epithelial cells had much faster biosynthetic turnover than in polarized cells. Fast biosynthetic turnover of membrane DE-Cad is independent of actin- and dynamin-based trafficking, but is microtubule-dependent. Furthermore, Arm in AJs of polarizing cells showed a faster and diffusion-based membrane redistribution that was both quantitatively and qualitatively different from the slower and exchange-based DE-Cad membrane distribution, indicating that the association of Arm with DE-Cad is more dynamic in polarizing cells, and only becomes stable in polarized epithelial cells. Consistently, biochemical assays showed that the binding of Arm to DE-Cad is weaker in polarizing cells than in polarized cells. Our data revealed that the molecular interaction between DE-Cad and Arm is modulated during apical-basal polarization, suggesting a new mechanism that might be crucial for establishing apical-basal polarity through regulating the AJ dynamics.

Modeling of an alternative reimbursement method for palliative care.

OBJECTIVES: Patient and Caregiver Support for Serious Illness (PACSSI), a per-member per-month (PMPM) alternative reimbursement structure for palliative care (PC) services, has been described as overly generous by HHS. We developed a modified version, PACSSI-Flexible (PACSSI-F), by modeling reimbursement for PC based on the changes in patient functional status. We estimated reimbursement for the first year that an organization might implement the PACSSI-F for PC services. STUDY DESIGN: Secondary analysis using data from the Statin Discontinuation in Advanced Illness Trial. METHODS: We evaluated the PACSSI vs the PACSSI-F in 3 phases. In the first phase, we calculated variable-appropriate frequencies/relative frequencies or means/SDs for the study population's available demographics and comorbidities, focusing on age, Charlson Comorbidity Index score, race and ethnicity, gender, and continued statin use. Exploratory analyses specific to reimbursement were conducted in a second phase. For each payment structure, we calculated the (1) mean (SD) total reimbursement and (2) number of weeks that a health care system would receive reimbursement, with both weekly and PMPM (4-week) averages. The third phase was designed to quantify any within-person (paired) differences in reimbursement between the original PACSSI and the PACSSI-F. RESULTS: PACSSI-F provides reimbursement for sustainable PC services and was cost-advantageous over PACSSI by $69.92 PMPM for 28.6% of the seriously ill population. CONCLUSIONS: Modeling of the PACSSI-F using secondary data provides a novel example of economic forecasting for alternative reimbursement structures in PC. Alternative reimbursement payment policies are necessary to expand PC for the seriously ill population.

10-Year Follow-Up of Lung Function, Respiratory Symptoms, and Functional Capacity in the COPDGene Study.

Rationale: The course of lung function, respiratory symptoms, and functional status over time in people who smoke cigarettes is still incompletely understood. The COPDGene (Genetic Epidemiology of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease [COPD]) study provides a unique cohort to examine these trajectories, and now 10-year follow-up data are available. Objectives: This study aims to provide insight into the progression of spirometric parameters, respiratory symptoms, and functional capacity over 10 years in current and former cigarette smokers. Methods: We analyzed available longitudinal data for COPDGene participants who did not change smoking status over three visits spanning approximately 10 years of follow-up. Change in postbronchodilator forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1), St. George's Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ), and 6-minute walk distance (6MWD) from Phase 1 to Phase 3 were examined using linear mixed models. Terms were included in the models to estimate mean progression separately for current and former cigarette smokers. Models were stratified by baseline Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) spirometry stages as well as by new 2019 COPDGene classification. Results: The mean age at enrollment of the 9,103 participants in this analysis was 59.8 years (SD = 9.2 yr); 46.4% were women, and 32.6% were African American. In all GOLD COPD groups, including participants with normal spirometry, and all groups categorized by 2019 COPDGene classification, FEV1 decreased, SGRQ increased (indicating higher symptom burden), and 6MWD decreased over the 10-year follow-up period. Current smokers exhibited a greater mean loss of FEV1 over the study period than former smokers for all groups except those with preserved ratio impaired spirometry. For both SGRQ and 6MWD, rates of progression tended to be similar for former and current smokers except for 6MWD in the highest severity groups, in which former smokers had greater progression. However, this could be impacted by some current smokers with faster progression who had quit smoking and were dropped from analyses. Conclusions: Progression in FEV1, SGRQ, and 6MWD overall appears to be slow, and the change over time in groups traditionally characterized as not having disease closely mirrors that of the groups with COPD at all GOLD stages. Current cigarette smokers had greater loss of FEV1 than former smokers, whereas SGRQ and 6MWD changes were more similar between current and former cigarette smokers.

Predicting COPD Progression in Current and Former Smokers Using a Joint Model for Forced Expiratory Volume in 1 Second and Forced Expiratory Volume in 1 Second to Forced Vital Capacity Ratio.

Understanding baseline characteristics that can predict the progression of lung disease such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) for current or former smokers may allow for therapeutic intervention, particularly for individuals at high risk of rapid disease progression or transition from non-COPD to COPD. Classic diagnostic criteria for COPD and disease severity such as the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease document are based on forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) and FEV1 to forced vital capacity (FVC) ratio. Modeling changes in these outcomes jointly is beneficial given that they are correlated, and they are both required for specific disease classifications. Here, linear mixed models were used to model changes in FEV1 and FEV1/FVC jointly for 5- and 10-year intervals, using important baseline predictors to better understand the factors that affect disease progression. Participants with predicted loss of FEV1 and/or FEV1/FVC of at least 5% tended to have more emphysema, higher functional residual capacity, higher airway wall thickness as measured by Pi10, lower FVC to total lung capacity ratio and a lower body mass index at baseline, all relative to overall cohort averages. The model developed can be used to predict progression for any potential COPD individual, based on demographic, symptom, computed tomography, and comorbidity variables.