Single-centre study of 628 adult, primary kidney transplant recipients showing no unfavourable effect of new-onset diabetes after transplant.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: To better understand the implications of new-onset diabetes after transplant (NODAT), we used our prospectively followed cohort of 628 adult primary kidney transplant recipients to determine the prognostic impact of pretransplant diabetes and NODAT. METHODS: The study cohort consisted of all participants in four randomised immunosuppression trials performed at our centre since May 2000. For each cause-specific hazard analysed, Cox stepwise regression was used to determine a multivariable model of significant baseline predictors; the multivariable influence of having pretransplant diabetes and NODAT (t) (the latter defined as a zero-one, time-dependent covariate) was subsequently tested. Similar analyses of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) at 36 and 60 months post transplant were performed using stepwise linear regression. Finally, a repeated measures analysis of mean HbA1c as a function of diabetes category (pretransplant diabetes vs NODAT) and randomised trial (first to fourth) was performed. RESULTS: Median follow-up was 56 months post transplant. Patients with pretransplant diabetes comprised 23.4% (147/628), and 22.5% (108/481) of the remaining patients developed NODAT. Pretransplant diabetes had no prognostic influence on first biopsy-proven acute rejection and death-censored graft failure hazard rates, nor on eGFR, but was associated with significantly higher rates of death with a functioning graft (DWFG) (p = 0.003), DWFG due to a cardiovascular event (p = 0.005) and infection that required hospitalisation (p = 0.03). NODAT (t) had no unfavourable impact on any of these hazard rates nor on eGFR, with actuarial freedom from DWFG remaining at over 90% among patients in pre- and post-NODAT states at 72 months post transplant/NODAT. Mean HbA1c for patients in the first to fourth randomised trials, averaged across diabetes category, decreased by trial (7.28%, 6.92%, 6.87% and 6.64% [56.1, 52.1, 51.6 and 49.1 mmol/mol], respectively; p = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Less-than-expected post-NODAT risk for graft loss and death may exist in the current climate of tighter glucose monitoring post transplant.

Multivariable risk of developing new onset diabetes after transplant-results from a single-center study of 481 adult, primary kidney transplant recipients.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the relative contributions of baseline demographics and immunosuppressive therapy on NODAT risk may help in developing preventive strategies. METHODS: Using our prospectively followed cohort of 481 adult, primary kidney transplant recipients without pre-transplant diabetes, we determined the significant baseline predictors for the hazard rate of developing NODAT via Cox stepwise regression. The multivariable influence of first BPAR (defined as a time-dependent covariate) was also tested. RESULTS: Median follow-up was 57 mo post-transplant; the overall percentage who developed NODAT was 22.5% (108/481). Four baseline predictors of a greater NODAT hazard rate were found (by order of selection): higher BMI (p < 0.000001), planned maintenance with SRL (p = 0.0003), non-white recipient (p = 0.0004), and older recipient age (p = 0.0004). Approximately one-half of the 106 patients in the highest demographic risk category (BMI ≥25 kg/m(2) , non-white race, and age at transplant ≥40 yr) developed NODAT; actuarial NODAT risk ranged from 10% to 30% in the lower demographic risk categories. First BPAR was also associated with significantly higher NODAT in multivariable analysis (p = 0.02)-the highly elevated NODAT rate observed during the first few months post-transplant and following first BPAR appears to demonstrate the diabetogenic effect of using high-dose (intravenous) corticosteroids. CONCLUSIONS: The disturbingly high NODAT rate found among patients having multiple demographic risk factors is still an important problem that awaits a better solution.