Quasi-experimental evaluation of a nationwide diabetes prevention programme.

Diabetes is a leading cause of morbidity, mortality and cost of illness1,2. Health behaviours, particularly those related to nutrition and physical activity, play a key role in the development of type 2 diabetes mellitus3. Whereas behaviour change programmes (also known as lifestyle interventions or similar) have been found efficacious in controlled clinical trials4,5, there remains controversy about whether targeting health behaviours at the individual level is an effective preventive strategy for type 2 diabetes mellitus6 and doubt among clinicians that lifestyle advice and counselling provided in the routine health system can achieve improvements in health7-9. Here we show that being referred to the largest behaviour change programme for prediabetes globally (the English Diabetes Prevention Programme) is effective in improving key cardiovascular risk factors, including glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c), excess body weight and serum lipid levels. We do so by using a regression discontinuity design10, which uses the eligibility threshold in HbA1c for referral to the behaviour change programme, in electronic health data from about one-fifth of all primary care practices in England. We confirm our main finding, the improvement of HbA1c, using two other quasi-experimental approaches: difference-in-differences analysis exploiting the phased roll-out of the programme and instrumental variable estimation exploiting regional variation in programme coverage. This analysis provides causal, rather than associational, evidence that lifestyle advice and counselling implemented at scale in a national health system can achieve important health improvements.

Pattern and predictors of non-adherence to diabetes self-management recommendations among patients in peripheral district of Bangladesh.

OBJECTIVES: This study was designed to determine the extent of non-adherence to the different dimensions of diabetes self-management and to identify the factors influencing non-adherence among peripheral patients in Bangladesh. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted among 990 adult diabetic patients residing in Thakurgaon district, Bangladesh. Data were collected through face-to-face interviews including socio-demographic information, disease and therapeutic, health services, knowledge and adherence to self-management components. RESULTS: The proportion of non-adherence to drug prescription was 66.7%, dietary regimen (68.9%), physical exercise (58.0%), follow-up visit/blood glucose test (88.2%), stopping tobacco (50.6%), and regular foot care (93.9%). Significant predictors for non-adherence to drug were poorest socio-economic status (OR = 2.47), absence of diabetic complications (OR = 1.43), using non-clinical therapy (OR = 5.61), and moderate level of knowledge (OR = 1.87). Non-adherence to dietary recommendations was higher for women (OR = 1.72), poorest socio-economic status (OR = 3.17), and poor technical knowledge (OR = 4.68). Non-adherence to physical exercise was lower for women (OR = 0.62), combined family (OR = 0.63), middle socio-economic status (OR = 0.54), and moderate knowledge on physical exercise (OR = 0.55). Non-adherence to follow-up visits/blood glucose test was higher among patients who did not have diabetic complications (OR = 1.81) and with own transport (OR = 2.57), and respondents from high-income group (OR = 0.23) were less likely to be non-adherent. Non-adherence to stopping tobacco was higher for older individuals (OR = 1.86); but lower for women (OR = 0.48), individuals with higher education level (OR = 0.17) and patients sick for a longer time (OR = 0.52). Non-adherence to foot care was higher for patients who needed longer time to go to hospital (OR = 4.07) and had poor basic knowledge on diabetes (OR = 17.80). CONCLUSION: An alarmingly high proportion of diabetic patients did not adhere to diabetes self-management. Major predictors for non-adherence were related to patient's demographic characteristics and their experience with disease, treatment and health care services.

Application of causal inference methods in individual-participant data meta-analyses in medicine: addressing data handling and reporting gaps with new proposed reporting guidelines.

Observational data provide invaluable real-world information in medicine, but certain methodological considerations are required to derive causal estimates. In this systematic review, we evaluated the methodology and reporting quality of individual-level patient data meta-analyses (IPD-MAs) conducted with non-randomized exposures, published in 2009, 2014, and 2019 that sought to estimate a causal relationship in medicine. We screened over 16,000 titles and abstracts, reviewed 45 full-text articles out of the 167 deemed potentially eligible, and included 29 into the analysis. Unfortunately, we found that causal methodologies were rarely implemented, and reporting was generally poor across studies. Specifically, only three of the 29 articles used quasi-experimental methods, and no study used G-methods to adjust for time-varying confounding. To address these issues, we propose stronger collaborations between physicians and methodologists to ensure that causal methodologies are properly implemented in IPD-MAs. In addition, we put forward a suggested checklist of reporting guidelines for IPD-MAs that utilize causal methods. This checklist could improve reporting thereby potentially enhancing the quality and trustworthiness of IPD-MAs, which can be considered one of the most valuable sources of evidence for health policy.

The Association Between HIV-Related Stigma and the Uptake of HIV Testing and ART Among Older Adults in Rural South Africa: Findings from the HAALSI Cohort Study.

HIV testing and antiretroviral therapy (ART) remain critical for curbing the spread of HIV/AIDS, but stigma can impede access to these services. Using data from the Health and Aging in Africa: A Longitudinal Study of an INDEPTH Community in South Africa (HAALSI), we used a multivariable logistic regression to examine the correlation between HIV-related stigma, HIV testing and ART uptake in older adults. We used four questions to measure stigma, with three assessing social stigma (reflecting social distancing preferences) and one assessing anticipated stigma (disclosure concern). We combined the three social stigma questions to generate a social stigma score ranging from 0 to 3, with higher scores indicating higher stigma. Anticipated stigma was prevalent 85% (95% CI 0.84-0.86), and social stigma was also frequent 25% (95% CI 0.24-0.27). Higher social stigma scores correlated with decreased HIV testing for all participants with social stigma. Compared to those with a score of 0, odds of testing decreased with higher stigma scores (OR = 0.66, 95% CI 0.53-0.81, p = 0.000) for a score of 1 and (OR = 0.56, 95% CI 0.38-0.83, p = 0.004) for a score of 3. ART uptake also decreased with higher social stigma scores among people living with HIV (PLWH), although it was significant for those with a score of 2 (OR = 0.41, 95% CI 0.19-0.87, p = 0.020). These findings emphasize that HIV-related stigma hampers testing and ART uptake among older adults in rural South Africa. Addressing stigma is crucial for improving testing rates, early diagnosis, and treatment initiation among the older population and achieving UNAIDS 95-95-95 targets.

The effects of parental retirement on adult children's health: Evidence from China.

Using representative data from China, we examine the causal effects of parental retirement on the health of adult children. To do so, we adopt a fuzzy regression discontinuity design and exploit the mandatory retirement ages in China as cut-off points. We find no evidence that parental retirement has significant effects on the mental health, healthcare utilization, or risky health behaviors of adult children. However, paternal retirement and maternal retirement have different effects on adult children's Self-reported health (SRH). Paternal retirement has a significantly negative effect only on the SRH of sons, while maternal retirement does not induce such effects. Potential mechanisms of intergenerational transfer through which parental retirement might affect adult children's health are also explored.

Hearing Loss Prevalence, Years Lived With Disability, and Hearing Aid Use in the United States From 1990 to 2019: Findings From the Global Burden of Disease Study.

OBJECTIVES: This article describes key data sources and methods used to estimate hearing loss in the United States, in the Global Burden of Disease study. Then, trends in hearing loss are described for 2019, including temporal trends from 1990 to 2019, changing prevalence over age, severity patterns, and utilization of hearing aids. DESIGN: We utilized population-representative surveys from the United States to estimate hearing loss prevalence for the Global Burden of Disease study. A key input data source in modeled estimates are the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES), years 1988 to 2010. We ran hierarchical severity-specific models to estimate hearing loss prevalence. We then scaled severity-specific models to sum to total hearing impairment prevalence, adjusted estimates for hearing aid coverage, and split estimates by etiology and tinnitus status. We computed years lived with disability (YLDs), which quantifies the amount of health loss associated with a condition depending on severity and creates a common metric to compare the burden of disparate diseases. This was done by multiplying the prevalence of severity-specific hearing loss by corresponding disability weights, with additional weighting for tinnitus comorbidity. RESULTS: An estimated 72.88 million (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 68.53 to 77.30) people in the United States had hearing loss in 2019, accounting for 22.2% (20.9 to 23.6) of the total population. Hearing loss was responsible for 2.24 million (1.56 to 3.11) YLDs (3.6% (2.8 to 4.7) of total US YLDs). Age-standardized prevalence was higher in males (17.7% [16.7 to 18.8]) compared with females (11.9%, [11.2 to 12.5]). While most cases of hearing loss were mild (64.3%, 95% UI 61.0 to 67.6), disability was concentrated in cases that were moderate or more severe. The all-age prevalence of hearing loss in the United States was 28.1% (25.7 to 30.8) higher in 2019 than in 1990, despite stable age-standardized prevalence. An estimated 9.7% (8.6 to 11.0) of individuals with mild to profound hearing loss utilized a hearing aid, while 32.5% (31.9 to 33.2) of individuals with hearing loss experienced tinnitus. Occupational noise exposure was responsible for 11.2% (10.2 to 12.4) of hearing loss YLDs. CONCLUSIONS: Results indicate large burden of hearing loss in the United States, with an estimated 1 in 5 people experiencing this condition. While many cases of hearing loss in the United States were mild, growing prevalence, low usage of hearing aids, and aging populations indicate the rising impact of this condition in future years and the increasing importance of domestic access to hearing healthcare services. Large-scale audiometric surveys such as NHANES are needed to regularly assess hearing loss burden and access to healthcare, improving our understanding of who is impacted by hearing loss and what groups are most amenable to intervention.

Taking emic and etic to the family level: interlinking parents' and children's COVID-19 views and experiences in Germany.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 impacted families globally, restricting movement, and changing daily routines and family dynamics. In order to explore and contrast children's and parents' experiences and perceptions of life during COVID-19, we used Pike's distinction of emic (an insider's view) and etic (an outsider's view) and adapted the concept to the family level to differentiate between children's and parents' own perspectives (emic) and their view of other family members (etic). METHODS: Our qualitative study is based on face-to-face in-depth individual interviews with parents (n = 13) and their children (n = 16) and included migrant families as a hitherto underrepresented group in COVID-19 research in Germany. Interviews were recorded, transcribed in NVivo and quality-checked. We employed thematic analysis to explore similarities and differences in perceptions and experiences of children and parents at the family level and across the entire data set. RESULTS: We identified the following major themes in parents' and children's experiences: managing role and relationship changes within the nuclear family, coping with social expectations and demands, and re-evaluations of life's priorities. Parents' etic views on children showed strong overlap with children's emic view in terms of physical movement restrictions, experiencing good and tense family times, and internalizing rules. For issues such as experiencing stigma, divorce or language acquisition, parents' views were not reflected in children's accounts. Children's testing experience, by contrast, was more nuanced than parents' perceptions of it. Children's etic views of parents, a perspective rarely found in qualitative research with children, overlapped with mothers' experiences of role strain. CONCLUSIONS: The consideration of parents' and children's emic and etic perspectives provided deeper insights into family members' experiences, navigation, and views of COVID-19 measures. Applying the emic/etic distinction to the family context enriches the sociology of childhood studies and enables a more nuanced understanding of diverging experiences within families and should thus be further explored within and beyond epidemics in order to guide future pandemic measures.

Relationship satisfaction and metabolic health parameters: a cross-sectional study in Burkinabe population of older adults.

BACKGROUND: Over- and undernutrition coexist in many African countries and pose a threat to metabolic health. This study assessed the associations between relationship satisfaction and Body Mass Index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), and glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), in a rural population of older adults in Burkina Faso. It also explored potential gender differences and the mediating role of depressive symptoms. METHODS: Data from the "Centre de Recherche en Santé de Nouna (CRSN) Heidelberg Aging Study (CHAS)," a cross-sectional population-based study conducted in 2018 in Burkina Faso, were used in our study. Hierarchical linear regression models were applied for each of the three outcome variables. Among 2291 participants aged 40 years or older who provided data on relationship satisfaction, 2221, 2223, and 2145 participants had BMI, waist circumference (WC), and HbA1c values respectively. RESULTS: Higher relationship satisfaction (CSI-4 score) was associated with increased BMI (ß = 0.05, p = 0.031) and WC (ß = 0.12, p = 0.039). However, the association of CSI-4 and BMI became non-significant after controlling for depressive symptoms (PHQ-9 score) and physical inactivity (BMI: ß = 0.04, p = 0.073). Depressive symptoms fully mediated the relationship between relationship satisfaction and BMI (ß = -0.07, p = 0.005). There was no significant association between relationship satisfaction and HbA1c. These results were consistent across genders and age groups. CONCLUSION: Higher relationship satisfaction may lead to increased body weight among Burkinabe adults aged 40 years and older, and depressive symptoms may be a mediator in this association.

Large age shifts in HIV-1 incidence patterns in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

Recent declines in adult HIV-1 incidence have followed the large-scale expansion of antiretroviral therapy and primary HIV prevention across high-burden communities of sub-Saharan Africa. Mathematical modeling suggests that HIV risk will decline disproportionately in younger adult age-groups as interventions scale, concentrating new HIV infections in those >age 25 over time. Yet, no empirical data exist to support these projections. We conducted a population-based cohort study over a 16-y period (2004 to 2019), spanning the early scale-up of antiretroviral therapy and voluntary medical male circumcision, to estimate changes in the age distribution of HIV incidence in a hyperepidemic region of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, where adult HIV incidence has recently declined. Median age of HIV seroconversion increased by 5.5 y in men and 3.0 y in women, and the age of peak HIV incidence increased by 5.0 y in men and 2.0 y in women. Incidence declined disproportionately among young men (64% in men 15 to 19, 68% in men 20 to 24, and 46% in men 25 to 29) and young women (44% in women 15 to 19, 24% in women 20 to 24) comparing periods pre- versus post-universal test and treat. Incidence was stable (<20% change) in women aged 30 to 39 and men aged 30 to 34. Age shifts in incidence occurred after 2012 and were observed earlier in men than in women. These results provide direct epidemiological evidence of the changing demographics of HIV risk in sub-Saharan Africa in the era of large-scale treatment and prevention. More attention is needed to address lagging incidence decline among older individuals.

Impact of a post-partum family planning intervention on contraception and fertility in Tanzania: two-year follow-up of a cluster-randomised controlled trial.

PURPOSE: We evaluate contraceptive use and pregnancy two years following an intervention in Tanzania, which provided antenatal post-partum family planning counselling and post-partum intrauterine device (PPIUD) services following delivery. METHODS: We analyse data from five hospitals in Tanzania using a difference-in-difference cluster randomised design, with randomisation at the hospital level. We use women-level data collected at the index birth and a follow-up survey two years later among 6,410 women. Outcomes (overall modern contraceptive use, contraceptive type, pregnancy) are modelled with an intent-to-treat (ITT) approach using linear regression. We compare with the complier average causal effect (CACE) of the intervention among those counselled. RESULTS: The intervention increased long-term PPIUD use by 5.8 percentage points (95% CI: 0.7-11.2%) through substitution away from other modern methods. There was no impact on overall modern contraceptive prevalence or pregnancy. Only 29% of women reported receiving PPIUD counselling. When accounting for this in the CACE analysis we saw a larger impact with 25.7% percentage point increase in PPIUD use (95% CI: 22.7-28.6%). CONCLUSION: The intervention provided women an additional contraceptive choice, resulting in higher use of PPIUD over two years. Increase in PPIUD use was brought about by shifting methods, not creating new modern contraceptive users.

The post-partum family planning intervention in Tanzania offered women a new contraceptive option and increased sustained use of post-partum IUD. The intervention did not attract new modern contraception users and could have a greater impact if implemented more widely.

Health Technology Assessment-Informed Decision Making by the Federal Joint Committee/Institute for Quality and Efficiency in Health Care in Germany and the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence in England: The Role of Budget Impact.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to test (official) evaluation criteria including the potential role of budget impact (BI) on health technology assessment (HTA) outcomes published by the Federal Joint Committee (Gemeinsamer Bundesausschuss [GBA]) and the Institute for Quality and Efficiency in Health Care (Institut für Qualität und Wirtschaftlichkeit im Gesundheitswesen [IQWiG]) in Germany as well as the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) in England. METHODS: Data were extracted from all publicly available GBA decisions and IQWiG assessments as well as NICE single technology appraisals between January 2011 and June 2018, and information with regard to evaluation criteria used by these agencies was collected. Data were analyzed using logistic regression to estimate the effect of the BI on the HTA outcomes while controlling for criteria used by GBA/IQWiG and NICE. RESULTS: NICE recommendations are largely driven by the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio and, if applicable, by end-of-life criteria (P < .01). While IQWiG assessments are significantly affected by the availability of randomized controlled trials and patient-relevant endpoints (P < .01), GBA appraisals primarily focus on endpoints (P < .01). The BI correlated with NICE single technology appraisals (inverted-U relationship, P < .1) and IQWiG recommendations (increasing linear relationship, P < .05), but not with GBA decisions (P > .1). Nevertheless, given that IQWiG assessments seem to be more rigorous than GBA appraisals regarding the consideration of evidence-based evaluation criteria, decisions by GBA might be negatively associated with the BI. CONCLUSIONS: Results reveal that GBA/IQWiG and NICE follow their official evaluation criteria consistently. After controlling for all significant variables, the BI seems to have an (independent) effect on HTA outcomes as well.

Out-of-pocket Expenses and Time Spent on Clinic Visits Among HIV Pre-exposure Prophylaxis Users and Other Clinic Attendees in Eswatini.

User costs constitute a barrier to the uptake of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), but their magnitude appears rarely assessed. In this prospective observational study, we assessed self-reported out-of-pocket expenses (OOPE) and time spent on clinic visits during a PrEP demonstration project in Eswatini. At six public primary care clinics, 240 PrEP users and other clinic attendees were interviewed after a clinic visit. Among the 79.2% of clinic attendees reporting any medical OOPE (e.g., expenses for consultations or drugs) and/or non-medical OOPE (e.g., expenses for transport, food, or phone use), the median total OOPE was $1.36 (IQR 0.91-1.96). Non-medical OOPE occurred mostly due to transport expenses. The median travel time for a clinic visit was 1.0 h (IQR 0.67-2.0). The median time spent in the clinic was 2.0 h (IQR 1.15-3.0). The median opportunity cost of a clinic visit was $7.54 (IQR 5.42-11) when valuing time spent on a clinic visit with Eswatini's per-capita gross domestic product. Our findings can guide measures to reduce the user costs of PrEP in Eswatini and other contexts in which oral PrEP is provided through health care facilities.

RESUMEN: Los costes de los usuarios constituyen un obstáculo para la adopción de la profilaxis previa a la exposición al VIH (PrEP), pero su magnitud rara vez se evalúa. En este estudio observacional prospectivo, evaluamos los gastos de bolsillo (OOPE) declarados por los propios usuarios y el tiempo dedicado a las visitas clínicas durante un proyecto de demostración de la PrEP en Eswatini. En seis clínicas públicas de atención primaria, se entrevistó a 240 usuarios de la PrEP y a otros asistentes a la clínica después de una visita a la misma. Entre el 79,2% de los asistentes a las clínicas que declararon algún OOPE médico (por ejemplo, gastos por consultas o medicamentos) y/o OOPE no médico (por ejemplo, gastos de transporte, comida o uso del teléfono), la mediana del OOPE total fue de 1,36 dólares (IQR: 0,91­1,96). Los gastos no médicos se debieron principalmente a los gastos de transporte. La mediana del tiempo de viaje para una visita a la clínica fue de 1,0 horas (IQR 0,67­2,0). La mediana del tiempo empleado en la clínica fue de 2 horas (IQR 1,15­3,0). La mediana del coste de oportunidad de una visita a la clínica fue de 7,65 dólares (IQR 5,55­11) al valorar el tiempo dedicado a una visita a la clínica con el producto interior bruto per cápita de Eswatini. Nuestros resultados pueden orientar las medidas para reducir los costes de uso de la PrEP en Eswatini y en otros contextos en los que se suministra la PrEP oral a través de los centros de salud.

Does Early Childhood BCG Vaccination Improve Survival to Midlife in a Population With a Low Tuberculosis Prevalence? Quasi-experimental Evidence on Nonspecific Effects From 32 Swedish Birth Cohorts.

The Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccine for tuberculosis (TB) is widely used globally. Many high-income countries discontinued nationwide vaccination policies starting in the 1980s as the TB prevalence decreased. However, there is continued scientific interest in whether the general childhood immunity boost conferred by the BCG vaccination impacts adult health and mortality in low-TB contexts (known as nonspecific effects). While recent studies have found evidence of an association between BCG vaccination and survival to ages 34-45, it is unclear whether these associations are causal or driven by the unobserved characteristics of those who chose to voluntarily vaccinate. We use the abrupt discontinuation of mandatory BCG vaccination in Sweden in 1975 as a natural experiment to estimate the causal nonspecific effect of the BCG vaccine on cohort survival to midlife. Applying two complementary study designs, we find no evidence that survival to age 40 was affected by the discontinuation of childhood BCG vaccination. The results are consistent among both males and females and are robust to several sensitivity tests. Overall, despite prior correlational studies suggesting large nonspecific effects, we do not find any population-level evidence for a nonspecific effect of the BCG vaccine discontinuation on survival to age 40 in Sweden.

Deliberation, context, emotion and trust - understanding the dynamics of adults' COVID-19 vaccination decisions in Germany.

BACKGROUND: Willingness to vaccinate against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which is vital to successful vaccination campaigns, is wavering and suboptimal. In Germany, quantitative research highlighted concerns regarding the safety and efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines as barriers to uptake, but qualitative insights regarding individuals' decisions about COVID-19 vaccines and how personal perceptions reflect or refute existing behavioral theories are lacking. METHODS: To identify how individuals make COVID-19 vaccination decisions within real-life contexts, we conducted 33 semi-structured, in-depth qualitative interviews with individuals in Germany between March and April 2021 using maximum variation sampling, focusing on perceptions of COVID-19 vaccines. Analysis, informed by a framework approach, began in the field via debriefings and was amplified upon the conclusion of data collection. RESULTS: Four interconnected themes (deliberation, context, emotion, trust) shaped respondents' decisions about vaccination. Personal deliberation regarding benefits and risks of vaccines and perceptions of the broader social and political context sparked a spectrum of emotions that underpinned vaccination decisions. Trust in science and researchers emerged as a powerful protective factor facilitating the decision to get vaccinated even amidst a rapidly changing context and disconcerting information. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings add to ongoing debates about the breadth of vaccination decisions by highlighting how respondents are influenced by their perceptions of the political context and the emotional heft of their decisions. The role of cognitive evaluation, context, and emotions mirrors other decision-making frameworks, particularly the Risk as Feelings Theory. We extend on the elements of this theory by highlighting trust as a protective factor when making decisions particularly in highly uncertain contexts. Success of vaccination campaigns, more important than ever as new variants of COVID-19 emerge, is interwoven with an ability to bolster trust in science. Communicating public-health decisions and information about vaccines transparently without instilling fear offers promising chances to strengthen public trust in COVID-19 vaccines. TRIAL REGISTRATION: German Clinical Trials Register ( DRKS00024505 ).

Disease awareness and healthcare utilization in rural South Africa: a comparative analysis of HIV and diabetes in the HAALSI cohort.

BACKGROUND: Studies from rural South Africa indicate that people living with HIV (PLHIV) may have better health outcomes than those without, potentially due to the frequent healthcare visits necessitated by infection. Here, we examined the association between HIV status and healthcare utilization, using diabetes as an illustrative comparator of another high-burden, healthcare-intensive disease. METHODS: Our exposure of interest was awareness of positive disease status for both HIV and diabetes. We identified 742 individuals who were HIV-positive and aware of their status and 305 who had diabetes and were aware of their status. HIV-positive status was further grouped by viral suppression. For each disease, we estimated the association with (1) other comorbid, chronic conditions, (2) health facility visits, (3) household-level healthcare expenditure, and (4) per-visit healthcare expenditure. We used log-binomial regression models to estimate prevalence ratios for co-morbid chronic conditions. Linear regression models were used for all other outcomes. RESULTS: Virally suppressed PLHIV had decreased prevalence of chronic conditions, increased public clinic visits [ß = 0.59, 95% CI: 0.5, 0.7], and reduced per-visit private clinic spending [ß = -60, 95% CI: -83, -6] compared to those without HIV. No differences were observed in hospitalizations and per-visit spending at hospitals and public clinics between virally suppressed PLHIV and non-PLHIV. Conversely, diabetic individuals had increased prevalence of chronic conditions, increased visits across facility types, increased household-level expenditures (ß = 88 R, 95% CI: 29, 154), per-visit hospital spending (ß = 54 R, 95% CI: 7, 155), and per-visit public clinic spending (ß = 31 R, 95% CI: 2, 74) compared to those without diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that older adult PLHIV may visit public clinics more often than their HIV-negative counterparts but spend similarly on a per-visit basis. This provides preliminary evidence that the positive health outcomes observed among PLHIV in rural South Africa may be explained by different healthcare engagement patterns. Through our illustrative comparison between PLHIV and diabetics, we show that shifting disease burdens towards chronic and historically underfunded diseases, like diabetes, may be changing the landscape of health expenditure inequities.

Predicting missed health care visits during the COVID-19 pandemic using machine learning methods: evidence from 55,500 individuals from 28 European countries.

BACKGROUND: Pandemics such as the COVID-19 pandemic and other severe health care disruptions endanger individuals to miss essential care. Machine learning models that predict which patients are at greatest risk of missing care visits can help health administrators prioritize retentions efforts towards patients with the most need. Such approaches may be especially useful for efficiently targeting interventions for health systems overburdened during states of emergency. METHODS: We use data on missed health care visits from over 55,500 respondents of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) COVID-19 surveys (June - August 2020 and June - August 2021) with longitudinal data from waves 1-8 (April 2004 - March 2020). We compare the performance of four machine learning algorithms (stepwise selection, lasso, random forest, and neural networks) to predict missed health care visits during the first COVID-19 survey based on common patient characteristics available to most health care providers. We test the prediction accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity of the selected models for the first COVID-19 survey by employing 5-fold cross-validation, and test the out-of-sample performance of the models by applying them to the data from the second COVID-19 survey. RESULTS: Within our sample, 15.5% of the respondents reported any missed essential health care visit due to the COVID-19 pandemic. All four machine learning methods perform similarly in their predictive power. All models have an area under the curve (AUC) of around 0.61, outperforming random prediction. This performance is sustained for data from the second COVID-19 wave one year later, with an AUC of 0.59 for men and 0.61 for women. When classifying all men (women) with a predicted risk of 0.135 (0.170) or higher as being at risk of missing care, the neural network model correctly identifies 59% (58%) of the individuals with missed care visits, and 57% (58%) of the individuals without missed care visits. As the sensitivity and specificity of the models are strongly related to the risk threshold used to classify individuals, the models can be calibrated depending on users' resource constraints and targeting approach. CONCLUSIONS: Pandemics such as COVID-19 require rapid and efficient responses to reduce disruptions in health care. Based on characteristics available to health administrators or insurance providers, simple machine learning algorithms can be used to efficiently target efforts to reduce missed essential care.

Effect of Short, Animated Video Storytelling on Maternal Knowledge and Satisfaction in the Perinatal Period in South Africa: Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: Innovative mobile health (mHealth) interventions can improve maternal knowledge, thereby supporting national efforts to reduce preventable maternal and child mortality in South Africa. Studies have documented a potential role for mobile video content to support perinatal health messaging, enhance maternal satisfaction, and overcome literacy barriers. Short, animated storytelling (SAS) is an innovative, emerging approach to mHealth messaging. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to measure the effect of SAS videos on maternal knowledge and user satisfaction for mothers enrolled in antenatal care programs at 2 public health facilities in the Tshwane District of South Africa. METHODS: We used a randomized controlled trial with a nested evaluation of user satisfaction. Participants were randomized 1:1 into Standard-of-Care (SOC) Control, and SAS Intervention groups. The intervention videos were delivered through WhatsApp, and 1 month later, participants responded to telephone surveys assessing their knowledge. The intervention group then participated in a nested evaluation of user satisfaction. RESULTS: We surveyed 204 participants. Of them, 49.5% (101/204) were aged between 25 and 34 years. Almost all participants self-identified as Black, with the majority (190/204, 93.2%) having completed secondary school. The mean overall knowledge score was 21.92/28. We observed a slight increase of 0.28 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] -0.58 to 1.16) in the overall knowledge score in the intervention arm. We found that those with secondary education or above scored higher than those with only primary education by 2.24 (95% UI 0.76-4.01). Participants aged 35 years or older also scored higher than the youngest age group (18-24 years) by 1.83 (95% CI 0.39-3.33). Finally, the nested user satisfaction evaluation revealed high maternal satisfaction (4.71/5) with the SAS video series. CONCLUSIONS: While the SAS videos resulted in high user satisfaction, measured knowledge gains were small within a participant population that was already receiving perinatal health messages through antenatal clinics. The higher knowledge scores observed in older participants with higher education levels suggest that boosting maternal knowledge in younger mothers with lower education levels should continue to be a public health priority in South Africa. Given the high maternal satisfaction among the SAS video-users in this study, policy makers should consider integrating similar approaches into existing, broad-reaching perinatal health programs, such as MomConnect, to boost satisfaction and potentially enhance maternal engagement. While previous studies have shown the promise of animated video health education, most of this research has been conducted in high-income countries. More research in underresourced settings is urgently needed, especially as access to mobile technology increases in the Global South. Future studies should explore the effect of SAS videos on maternal knowledge in hard-to-reach populations with limited access to antenatal care, although real-world logistical challenges persist when implementing studies in underresourced South African populations. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Pan African Clinical Trials Registry PACTR202203673222680; https://tinyurl.com/362cpuny.

Participant engagement with a short, wordless, animated video on COVID-19 prevention: a multi-site randomized trial.

COVID-19 misinformation has spread rapidly across social media. To counter misinformation, we designed a short, wordless and animated video (called the CoVideo) to deliver scientifically informed and emotionally compelling information about preventive COVID-19 behaviours. After 15 163 online participants were recruited from Germany, Mexico, Spain, the UK and the USA, we offered participants in the attention placebo control (APC) and do-nothing arms the option to watch the CoVideo (without additional compensation) as post-trial access to treatment. The objective of our study was to evaluate participant engagement by quantifying (i) the proportion of participants opting to watch the CoVideo and (ii) the duration of time spent watching the CoVideo. We quantified the CoVideo opt-in and view time by experimental arm, age, gender, educational status, country of residence and COVID-19 prevention knowledge. Overall engagement with the CoVideo was high: 72% of the participants [CI: 71.1%; 73.0%] opted to watch the CoVideo with an average view time of 138.9 out of 144.0 s [CI: 138.4; 139.4], with no statistically significant differences by arm. Older participants (35-59 years) and participants with higher COVID-19 prevention knowledge had higher view times than their counterparts. Spanish participants had the highest opt-in percentage whereas Germans exhibited the shortest view times of the five countries. Short, wordless and animated storytelling videos, optimized for 'viral spread' on social media, can enhance global engagement with COVID-19 prevention messages by transcending cultural, language and literary barriers.

Aspirin for Secondary Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease in 51 Low-, Middle-, and High-Income Countries.

Importance: Aspirin is an effective and low-cost option for reducing atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) events and improving mortality rates among individuals with established CVD. To guide efforts to mitigate the global CVD burden, there is a need to understand current levels of aspirin use for secondary prevention of CVD. Objective: To report and evaluate aspirin use for secondary prevention of CVD across low-, middle-, and high-income countries. Design, Setting, and Participants: Cross-sectional analysis using pooled, individual participant data from nationally representative health surveys conducted between 2013 and 2020 in 51 low-, middle-, and high-income countries. Included surveys contained data on self-reported history of CVD and aspirin use. The sample of participants included nonpregnant adults aged 40 to 69 years. Exposures: Countries' per capita income levels and world region; individuals' socioeconomic demographics. Main Outcomes and Measures: Self-reported use of aspirin for secondary prevention of CVD. Results: The overall pooled sample included 124 505 individuals. The median age was 52 (IQR, 45-59) years, and 50.5% (95% CI, 49.9%-51.1%) were women. A total of 10 589 individuals had a self-reported history of CVD (8.1% [95% CI, 7.6%-8.6%]). Among individuals with a history of CVD, aspirin use for secondary prevention in the overall pooled sample was 40.3% (95% CI, 37.6%-43.0%). By income group, estimates were 16.6% (95% CI, 12.4%-21.9%) in low-income countries, 24.5% (95% CI, 20.8%-28.6%) in lower-middle-income countries, 51.1% (95% CI, 48.2%-54.0%) in upper-middle-income countries, and 65.0% (95% CI, 59.1%-70.4%) in high-income countries. Conclusion and Relevance: Worldwide, aspirin is underused in secondary prevention, particularly in low-income countries. National health policies and health systems must develop, implement, and evaluate strategies to promote aspirin therapy.

'We Should Not Be Quiet but We Should Talk': Qualitative Accounts of Community-Based Communication of HIV Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis.

Community leaders play an important role in the acceptance of public health services, but little is known about their willingness to facilitate HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) roll-out in Eswatini. We conducted in-depth interviews (n = 25) with purposefully selected male and female community leaders in Eswatini. We analysed our data inductively using a thematic analysis approach. Community leaders feel they are important communicators of culturally appropriate PrEP messaging. Our participants described a complex social space within their communities influenced by religion, tradition, values, and HIV stigma. Community leaders use their position to provide leverage for unique, effective, and easily accessible messages and platforms to reach the community in a manner that ensures trust, relatability, familiarity, and shared faith. Community leaders feel that they are trusted and see trust manifesting in the conversations they are able to engage in, and have a reach that extends beyond formal health services. Existing PrEP programming should embed community leader participation in PrEP programming and engage the trust, knowledge, and potential of community leaders to support PrEP uptake and acceptance.