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1.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 118(28)2021 07 13.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34155124

RESUMEN

Plants remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere through photosynthesis. Because agriculture's productivity is based on this process, a combination of technologies to reduce emissions and enhance soil carbon storage can allow this sector to achieve net negative emissions while maintaining high productivity. Unfortunately, current row-crop agricultural practice generates about 5% of greenhouse gas emissions in the United States and European Union. To reduce these emissions, significant effort has been focused on changing farm management practices to maximize soil carbon. In contrast, the potential to reduce emissions has largely been neglected. Through a combination of innovations in digital agriculture, crop and microbial genetics, and electrification, we estimate that a 71% (1,744 kg CO2e/ha) reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from row crop agriculture is possible within the next 15 y. Importantly, emission reduction can lower the barrier to broad adoption by proceeding through multiple stages with meaningful improvements that gradually facilitate the transition to net negative practices. Emerging voluntary and regulatory ecosystems services markets will incentivize progress along this transition pathway and guide public and private investments toward technology development. In the difficult quest for net negative emissions, all tools, including emission reduction and soil carbon storage, must be developed to allow agriculture to maintain its critical societal function of provisioning society while, at the same time, generating environmental benefits.


Asunto(s)
Agricultura/métodos , Dióxido de Carbono/análisis , Conservación de los Recursos Naturales , Producción de Cultivos , Tecnología , Amoníaco/metabolismo , Productos Agrícolas/genética
2.
J Exp Bot ; 73(16): 5715-5729, 2022 09 12.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35728801

RESUMEN

Crop multi-model ensembles (MME) have proven to be effective in increasing the accuracy of simulations in modelling experiments. However, the ability of MME to capture crop responses to changes in sowing dates and densities has not yet been investigated. These management interventions are some of the main levers for adapting cropping systems to climate change. Here, we explore the performance of a MME of 29 wheat crop models to predict the effect of changing sowing dates and rates on yield and yield components, on two sites located in a high-yielding environment in New Zealand. The experiment was conducted for 6 years and provided 50 combinations of sowing date, sowing density and growing season. We show that the MME simulates seasonal growth of wheat well under standard sowing conditions, but fails under early sowing and high sowing rates. The comparison between observed and simulated in-season fraction of intercepted photosynthetically active radiation (FIPAR) for early sown wheat shows that the MME does not capture the decrease of crop above ground biomass during winter months due to senescence. Models need to better account for tiller competition for light, nutrients, and water during vegetative growth, and early tiller senescence and tiller mortality, which are exacerbated by early sowing, high sowing densities, and warmer winter temperatures.


Asunto(s)
Cambio Climático , Triticum , Biomasa , Estaciones del Año , Temperatura
3.
Precis Agric ; 22(6): 1749-1767, 2021.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34744492

RESUMEN

Understanding subfield crop yields and temporal stability is critical to better manage crops. Several algorithms have proposed to study within-field temporal variability but they were mostly limited to few fields. In this study, a large dataset composed of 5520 yield maps from 768 fields provided by farmers was used to investigate the influence of subfield yield distribution skewness on temporal variability. The data are used to test two intuitive algorithms for mapping stability: one based on standard deviation and the second based on pixel ranking and percentiles. The analysis of yield monitor data indicates that yield distribution is asymmetric, and it tends to be negatively skewed (p < 0.05) for all of the four crops analyzed, meaning that low yielding areas are lower in frequency but cover a larger range of low values. The mean yield difference between the pixels classified as high-and-stable and the pixels classified as low-and-stable was 1.04 Mg ha-1 for maize, 0.39 Mg ha-1 for cotton, 0.34 Mg ha-1 for soybean, and 0.59 Mg ha-1 for wheat. The yield of the unstable zones was similar to the pixels classified as low-and-stable by the standard deviation algorithm, whereas the two-way outlier algorithm did not exhibit this bias. Furthermore, the increase in the number years of yield maps available induced a modest but significant increase in the certainty of stability classifications, and the proportion of unstable pixels increased with the precipitation heterogeneity between the years comprising the yield maps. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11119-021-09810-1.

4.
J Cell Physiol ; 235(9): 6073-6084, 2020 09.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31970778

RESUMEN

Acute lung injury (ALI) is an inflammatory process, and has high incidence and mortality. ALI and the acute respiratory distress syndrome are two common complications worldwide that result in acute lung failure, sepsis, and death. Pro-inflammatory substances, such as cytokines and chemokines, are responsible for activating the body's defense mechanisms and usually mediate inflammatory processes. Therefore, the research of substances that decrease the uncontrolled response of organism is seen as potential for patients with ALI. Octyl gallate (OG) is a phenolic compound with therapeutic actions namely antimicrobial, antiviral, and antifungal. In this study, we evaluated its action on lipopolysaccharide (LPS)-activated alveolar macrophages RAW 264.7 cells and ALI in male mice. Our results demonstrated protective effects of OG in alveolar macrophages activated with LPS and mice with ALI. The OG treatment significantly decreased the inflammatory markers in both studies in vitro and in vivo. The data suggested that OG can act as an anti-inflammatory agent for ALI.


Asunto(s)
Lesión Pulmonar Aguda/tratamiento farmacológico , Ácido Gálico/análogos & derivados , Inflamación/tratamiento farmacológico , Lesión Pulmonar/tratamiento farmacológico , Lesión Pulmonar Aguda/patología , Animales , Modelos Animales de Enfermedad , Ácido Gálico/farmacología , Humanos , Inflamación/patología , Pulmón/efectos de los fármacos , Pulmón/patología , Lesión Pulmonar/genética , Lesión Pulmonar/patología , Macrófagos Alveolares/efectos de los fármacos , Macrófagos Alveolares/patología , Ratones , Estrés Oxidativo/efectos de los fármacos , Células RAW 264.7
5.
Invest New Drugs ; 38(6): 1653-1663, 2020 12.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32367200

RESUMEN

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most prevalent type of tumor among primary liver tumors and is the second highest cause of cancer-related deaths worldwide. Current therapies are controversial, and more research is needed to identify effective treatments. A new synthetic compound, potassium 5-cyano-4-methyl-6-oxo-1,6-dihydropyridine-2-olate (CPBMF65), is a potent inhibitor of the human uridine phosphorylase-1 (hUP1) enzyme, which controls the cell concentration of uridine (Urd). Urd is a natural pyrimidine nucleoside involved in cellular processes, such as RNA synthesis. In addition, it is considered a promising biochemical modulator, as it may reduce the toxicity caused by chemotherapeutics without impairing its anti-tumor activity. Thus, the objective of this study is to evaluate the effects of CPBMF65 on the proliferation of the human hepatocellular carcinoma cell line (HepG2). Cell proliferation, cytotoxicity, apoptosis, senescence, autophagy, intracellular Urd levels, cell cycle arrest, and drug resistance were analyzed. Results demonstrate that, after incubation with CPBMF65, HepG2 cell proliferation decreased, mainly through cell cycle arrest and senescence, increasing the levels of intracellular Urd and maintaining cell proliferation reduced during chronic treatment. In conclusion, results show, for the first time, the ability of a hUP1 inhibitor (CPBMF65) to reduce HepG2 cell proliferation through cell cycle arrest and senescence.


Asunto(s)
Antineoplásicos/farmacología , Carcinoma Hepatocelular/tratamiento farmacológico , Proliferación Celular/efectos de los fármacos , Neoplasias Hepáticas/tratamiento farmacológico , Piridinas/farmacología , Uridina Fosforilasa/antagonistas & inhibidores , Apoptosis/efectos de los fármacos , Puntos de Control del Ciclo Celular/efectos de los fármacos , Senescencia Celular/efectos de los fármacos , Cisplatino/farmacología , Resistencia a Antineoplásicos , Células Hep G2 , Humanos , Leucocitos Mononucleares/efectos de los fármacos , Uridina/farmacología
6.
Glob Chang Biol ; 26(10): 5942-5964, 2020 Oct.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32628332

RESUMEN

Smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) currently grow rainfed maize with limited inputs including fertilizer. Climate change may exacerbate current production constraints. Crop models can help quantify the potential impact of climate change on maize yields, but a comprehensive multimodel assessment of simulation accuracy and uncertainty in these low-input systems is currently lacking. We evaluated the impact of varying [CO2 ], temperature and rainfall conditions on maize yield, for different nitrogen (N) inputs (0, 80, 160 kg N/ha) for five environments in SSA, including cool subhumid Ethiopia, cool semi-arid Rwanda, hot subhumid Ghana and hot semi-arid Mali and Benin using an ensemble of 25 maize models. Models were calibrated with measured grain yield, plant biomass, plant N, leaf area index, harvest index and in-season soil water content from 2-year experiments in each country to assess their ability to simulate observed yield. Simulated responses to climate change factors were explored and compared between models. Calibrated models reproduced measured grain yield variations well with average relative root mean square error of 26%, although uncertainty in model prediction was substantial (CV = 28%). Model ensembles gave greater accuracy than any model taken at random. Nitrogen fertilization controlled the response to variations in [CO2 ], temperature and rainfall. Without N fertilizer input, maize (a) benefited less from an increase in atmospheric [CO2 ]; (b) was less affected by higher temperature or decreasing rainfall; and (c) was more affected by increased rainfall because N leaching was more critical. The model intercomparison revealed that simulation of daily soil N supply and N leaching plays a crucial role in simulating climate change impacts for low-input systems. Climate change and N input interactions have strong implications for the design of robust adaptation approaches across SSA, because the impact of climate change in low input systems will be modified if farmers intensify maize production with balanced nutrient management.


Asunto(s)
Cambio Climático , Zea mays , Fertilizantes , Malí , Nitrógeno
8.
Glob Chang Biol ; 25(4): 1428-1444, 2019 Apr.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30536680

RESUMEN

Efforts to limit global warming to below 2°C in relation to the pre-industrial level are under way, in accordance with the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, most impact research on agriculture to date has focused on impacts of warming >2°C on mean crop yields, and many previous studies did not focus sufficiently on extreme events and yield interannual variability. Here, with the latest climate scenarios from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project, we evaluated the impacts of the 2015 Paris Agreement range of global warming (1.5 and 2.0°C warming above the pre-industrial period) on global wheat production and local yield variability. A multi-crop and multi-climate model ensemble over a global network of sites developed by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for Wheat was used to represent major rainfed and irrigated wheat cropping systems. Results show that projected global wheat production will change by -2.3% to 7.0% under the 1.5°C scenario and -2.4% to 10.5% under the 2.0°C scenario, compared to a baseline of 1980-2010, when considering changes in local temperature, rainfall, and global atmospheric CO2 concentration, but no changes in management or wheat cultivars. The projected impact on wheat production varies spatially; a larger increase is projected for temperate high rainfall regions than for moderate hot low rainfall and irrigated regions. Grain yields in warmer regions are more likely to be reduced than in cooler regions. Despite mostly positive impacts on global average grain yields, the frequency of extremely low yields (bottom 5 percentile of baseline distribution) and yield inter-annual variability will increase under both warming scenarios for some of the hot growing locations, including locations from the second largest global wheat producer-India, which supplies more than 14% of global wheat. The projected global impact of warming <2°C on wheat production is therefore not evenly distributed and will affect regional food security across the globe as well as food prices and trade.

9.
Glob Chang Biol ; 25(1): 155-173, 2019 01.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30549200

RESUMEN

Wheat grain protein concentration is an important determinant of wheat quality for human nutrition that is often overlooked in efforts to improve crop production. We tested and applied a 32-multi-model ensemble to simulate global wheat yield and quality in a changing climate. Potential benefits of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration by 2050 on global wheat grain and protein yield are likely to be negated by impacts from rising temperature and changes in rainfall, but with considerable disparities between regions. Grain and protein yields are expected to be lower and more variable in most low-rainfall regions, with nitrogen availability limiting growth stimulus from elevated CO2 . Introducing genotypes adapted to warmer temperatures (and also considering changes in CO2 and rainfall) could boost global wheat yield by 7% and protein yield by 2%, but grain protein concentration would be reduced by -1.1 percentage points, representing a relative change of -8.6%. Climate change adaptations that benefit grain yield are not always positive for grain quality, putting additional pressure on global wheat production.


Asunto(s)
Adaptación Fisiológica , Cambio Climático , Proteínas de Granos/análisis , Triticum/química , Triticum/fisiología , Dióxido de Carbono/metabolismo , Sequías , Calidad de los Alimentos , Modelos Teóricos , Nitrógeno/metabolismo , Temperatura
10.
Sensors (Basel) ; 19(20)2019 Oct 14.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31615044

RESUMEN

Despite the new equipment capabilities, uneven crop stands are still common occurrences in crop fields, mainly due to spatial heterogeneity in soil conditions, seedling mortality due to herbivore predation and disease, or human error. Non-uniform plant stands may reduce grain yield in crops like maize. Thus, detecting signs of variability in crop stand density early in the season provides critical information for management decisions and crop yield forecasts. Processing techniques applied on images captured by unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) has been used successfully to identify crop rows and estimate stand density and, most recently, to estimate plant-to-plant interval distance. Here, we further test and apply an image processing algorithm on UAV images collected from yield-stability zones in a commercial crop field. Our objective was to implement the algorithm to compare variation of plant-spacing intervals to test whether yield differences within these zones are related to differences in crop stand characteristics. Our analysis indicates that the algorithm can be reliably used to estimate plant counts (precision >95% and recall >97%) and plant distance interval (R2 ~0.9 and relative error <10%). Analysis of the collected data indicated that plant spacing variability differences were small among plots with large yield differences, suggesting that it was not a major cause of yield variability across zones with distinct yield history. This analysis provides an example of how plant-detection algorithms can be applied to improve the understanding of patterns of spatial and temporal yield variability.

11.
Glob Chang Biol ; 24(11): 5072-5083, 2018 11.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30055118

RESUMEN

A recent innovation in assessment of climate change impact on agricultural production has been to use crop multimodel ensembles (MMEs). These studies usually find large variability between individual models but that the ensemble mean (e-mean) and median (e-median) often seem to predict quite well. However, few studies have specifically been concerned with the predictive quality of those ensemble predictors. We ask what is the predictive quality of e-mean and e-median, and how does that depend on the ensemble characteristics. Our empirical results are based on five MME studies applied to wheat, using different data sets but the same 25 crop models. We show that the ensemble predictors have quite high skill and are better than most and sometimes all individual models for most groups of environments and most response variables. Mean squared error of e-mean decreases monotonically with the size of the ensemble if models are added at random, but has a minimum at usually 2-6 models if best-fit models are added first. Our theoretical results describe the ensemble using four parameters: average bias, model effect variance, environment effect variance, and interaction variance. We show analytically that mean squared error of prediction (MSEP) of e-mean will always be smaller than MSEP averaged over models and will be less than MSEP of the best model if squared bias is less than the interaction variance. If models are added to the ensemble at random, MSEP of e-mean will decrease as the inverse of ensemble size, with a minimum equal to squared bias plus interaction variance. This minimum value is not necessarily small, and so it is important to evaluate the predictive quality of e-mean for each target population of environments. These results provide new information on the advantages of ensemble predictors, but also show their limitations.


Asunto(s)
Agricultura , Cambio Climático , Modelos Teóricos , Agricultura/métodos , Ambiente , Triticum
12.
Glob Chang Biol ; 24(2): e603-e616, 2018 02.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29080301

RESUMEN

Simulation models are extensively used to predict agricultural productivity and greenhouse gas emissions. However, the uncertainties of (reduced) model ensemble simulations have not been assessed systematically for variables affecting food security and climate change mitigation, within multi-species agricultural contexts. We report an international model comparison and benchmarking exercise, showing the potential of multi-model ensembles to predict productivity and nitrous oxide (N2 O) emissions for wheat, maize, rice and temperate grasslands. Using a multi-stage modelling protocol, from blind simulations (stage 1) to partial (stages 2-4) and full calibration (stage 5), 24 process-based biogeochemical models were assessed individually or as an ensemble against long-term experimental data from four temperate grassland and five arable crop rotation sites spanning four continents. Comparisons were performed by reference to the experimental uncertainties of observed yields and N2 O emissions. Results showed that across sites and crop/grassland types, 23%-40% of the uncalibrated individual models were within two standard deviations (SD) of observed yields, while 42 (rice) to 96% (grasslands) of the models were within 1 SD of observed N2 O emissions. At stage 1, ensembles formed by the three lowest prediction model errors predicted both yields and N2 O emissions within experimental uncertainties for 44% and 33% of the crop and grassland growth cycles, respectively. Partial model calibration (stages 2-4) markedly reduced prediction errors of the full model ensemble E-median for crop grain yields (from 36% at stage 1 down to 4% on average) and grassland productivity (from 44% to 27%) and to a lesser and more variable extent for N2 O emissions. Yield-scaled N2 O emissions (N2 O emissions divided by crop yields) were ranked accurately by three-model ensembles across crop species and field sites. The potential of using process-based model ensembles to predict jointly productivity and N2 O emissions at field scale is discussed.


Asunto(s)
Agricultura/métodos , Productos Agrícolas/fisiología , Modelos Biológicos , Óxido Nitroso/metabolismo , Simulación por Computador , Abastecimiento de Alimentos , Incertidumbre
13.
Glob Chang Biol ; 23(6): 2464-2472, 2017 06.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27860004

RESUMEN

Many of the irrigated spring wheat regions in the world are also regions with high poverty. The impacts of temperature increase on wheat yield in regions of high poverty are uncertain. A grain yield-temperature response function combined with a quantification of model uncertainty was constructed using a multimodel ensemble from two key irrigated spring wheat areas (India and Sudan) and applied to all irrigated spring wheat regions in the world. Southern Indian and southern Pakistani wheat-growing regions with large yield reductions from increasing temperatures coincided with high poverty headcounts, indicating these areas as future food security 'hot spots'. The multimodel simulations produced a linear absolute decline of yields with increasing temperature, with uncertainty varying with reference temperature at a location. As a consequence of the linear absolute yield decline, the relative yield reductions are larger in low-yielding environments (e.g., high reference temperature areas in southern India, southern Pakistan and all Sudan wheat-growing regions) and farmers in these regions will be hit hardest by increasing temperatures. However, as absolute yield declines are about the same in low- and high-yielding regions, the contributed deficit to national production caused by increasing temperatures is higher in high-yielding environments (e.g., northern India) because these environments contribute more to national wheat production. Although Sudan could potentially grow more wheat if irrigation is available, grain yields would be low due to high reference temperatures, with future increases in temperature further limiting production.


Asunto(s)
Calor , Triticum/crecimiento & desarrollo , Agricultura , Grano Comestible , India , Temperatura
14.
Biometals ; 30(4): 549-558, 2017 08.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28639108

RESUMEN

Hepatic fibrosis is an extracellular matrix deposition by hepatic stellate cells (HSC). Fibrosis can be caused by iron, which will lead to hydroxyl radical production and cell damage. Fructose-1,6-bisphosphate (FBP) has been shown to deliver therapeutic effects in many pathological situations. In this work, we aimed to test the effects of FBP in HSC cell line, GRX, exposed to an excess of iron (Fe). The Fe-treatment increased cell proliferation and FBP reversed this effect, which was not due to increased necrosis, apoptosis or changes in cell cycle. Oil Red-O staining showed that FBP successfully increased lipid content and lead GRX cells to present characteristics of quiescent HSC. Fe-treatment decreased PPAR-γ expression and increased Col-1 expression. Both effects were reversed by FBP which also decreased TGF-ß1 levels in comparison to both control and Fe groups. FBP, also, did not present scavenger activity in the DPPH assay. The treatment with FBP resulted in decreased proliferation rate, Col-1 expression and TGF-ß1 release by HSC cells. Furthermore, activated PPAR-γ and increased lipid droplets induce cells to become quiescent, which is a key event to reversion of hepatic fibrosis. FBP also chelates iron showing potential to improve Cell redox state.


Asunto(s)
Compuestos Ferrosos/antagonistas & inhibidores , Fructosadifosfatos/farmacología , Células Estrelladas Hepáticas/efectos de los fármacos , Quelantes del Hierro/farmacología , Animales , Compuestos de Bifenilo/química , Línea Celular , Supervivencia Celular/efectos de los fármacos , Colágeno Tipo I/genética , Colágeno Tipo I/metabolismo , Compuestos Ferrosos/farmacología , Regulación de la Expresión Génica , Células Estrelladas Hepáticas/citología , Células Estrelladas Hepáticas/metabolismo , Gotas Lipídicas/efectos de los fármacos , Gotas Lipídicas/metabolismo , Ratones , Oxidación-Reducción , PPAR gamma/genética , PPAR gamma/metabolismo , Picratos/química , Transducción de Señal , Factor de Crecimiento Transformador beta1/genética , Factor de Crecimiento Transformador beta1/metabolismo
15.
Agric Syst ; 155: 240-254, 2017 Jul.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28701816

RESUMEN

Agricultural systems science generates knowledge that allows researchers to consider complex problems or take informed agricultural decisions. The rich history of this science exemplifies the diversity of systems and scales over which they operate and have been studied. Modeling, an essential tool in agricultural systems science, has been accomplished by scientists from a wide range of disciplines, who have contributed concepts and tools over more than six decades. As agricultural scientists now consider the "next generation" models, data, and knowledge products needed to meet the increasingly complex systems problems faced by society, it is important to take stock of this history and its lessons to ensure that we avoid re-invention and strive to consider all dimensions of associated challenges. To this end, we summarize here the history of agricultural systems modeling and identify lessons learned that can help guide the design and development of next generation of agricultural system tools and methods. A number of past events combined with overall technological progress in other fields have strongly contributed to the evolution of agricultural system modeling, including development of process-based bio-physical models of crops and livestock, statistical models based on historical observations, and economic optimization and simulation models at household and regional to global scales. Characteristics of agricultural systems models have varied widely depending on the systems involved, their scales, and the wide range of purposes that motivated their development and use by researchers in different disciplines. Recent trends in broader collaboration across institutions, across disciplines, and between the public and private sectors suggest that the stage is set for the major advances in agricultural systems science that are needed for the next generation of models, databases, knowledge products and decision support systems. The lessons from history should be considered to help avoid roadblocks and pitfalls as the community develops this next generation of agricultural systems models.

16.
Agric Syst ; 155: 255-268, 2017 Jul.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28701817

RESUMEN

This paper presents ideas for a new generation of agricultural system models that could meet the needs of a growing community of end-users exemplified by a set of Use Cases. We envision new data, models and knowledge products that could accelerate the innovation process that is needed to achieve the goal of achieving sustainable local, regional and global food security. We identify desirable features for models, and describe some of the potential advances that we envisage for model components and their integration. We propose an implementation strategy that would link a "pre-competitive" space for model development to a "competitive space" for knowledge product development and through private-public partnerships for new data infrastructure. Specific model improvements would be based on further testing and evaluation of existing models, the development and testing of modular model components and integration, and linkages of model integration platforms to new data management and visualization tools.

17.
Agric Syst ; 155: 269-288, 2017 Jul.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28701818

RESUMEN

We review the current state of agricultural systems science, focusing in particular on the capabilities and limitations of agricultural systems models. We discuss the state of models relative to five different Use Cases spanning field, farm, landscape, regional, and global spatial scales and engaging questions in past, current, and future time periods. Contributions from multiple disciplines have made major advances relevant to a wide range of agricultural system model applications at various spatial and temporal scales. Although current agricultural systems models have features that are needed for the Use Cases, we found that all of them have limitations and need to be improved. We identified common limitations across all Use Cases, namely 1) a scarcity of data for developing, evaluating, and applying agricultural system models and 2) inadequate knowledge systems that effectively communicate model results to society. We argue that these limitations are greater obstacles to progress than gaps in conceptual theory or available methods for using system models. New initiatives on open data show promise for addressing the data problem, but there also needs to be a cultural change among agricultural researchers to ensure that data for addressing the range of Use Cases are available for future model improvements and applications. We conclude that multiple platforms and multiple models are needed for model applications for different purposes. The Use Cases provide a useful framework for considering capabilities and limitations of existing models and data.

18.
Glob Chang Biol ; 21(7): 2670-2686, 2015 Jul.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25482824

RESUMEN

The response of wheat crops to elevated CO2 (eCO2 ) was measured and modelled with the Australian Grains Free-Air CO2 Enrichment experiment, located at Horsham, Australia. Treatments included CO2 by water, N and temperature. The location represents a semi-arid environment with a seasonal VPD of around 0.5 kPa. Over 3 years, the observed mean biomass at anthesis and grain yield ranged from 4200 to 10 200 kg ha-1 and 1600 to 3900 kg ha-1 , respectively, over various sowing times and irrigation regimes. The mean observed response to daytime eCO2 (from 365 to 550 µmol mol-1 CO2 ) was relatively consistent for biomass at stem elongation and at anthesis and LAI at anthesis and grain yield with 21%, 23%, 21% and 26%, respectively. Seasonal water use was decreased from 320 to 301 mm (P = 0.10) by eCO2 , increasing water use efficiency for biomass and yield, 36% and 31%, respectively. The performance of six models (APSIM-Wheat, APSIM-Nwheat, CAT-Wheat, CROPSYST, OLEARY-CONNOR and SALUS) in simulating crop responses to eCO2 was similar and within or close to the experimental error for accumulated biomass, yield and water use response, despite some variations in early growth and LAI. The primary mechanism of biomass accumulation via radiation use efficiency (RUE) or transpiration efficiency (TE) was not critical to define the overall response to eCO2 . However, under irrigation, the effect of late sowing on response to eCO2 to biomass accumulation at DC65 was substantial in the observed data (~40%), but the simulated response was smaller, ranging from 17% to 28%. Simulated response from all six models under no water or nitrogen stress showed similar response to eCO2 under irrigation, but the differences compared to the dryland treatment were small. Further experimental work on the interactive effects of eCO2 , water and temperature is required to resolve these model discrepancies.

19.
Glob Chang Biol ; 21(2): 911-25, 2015 Feb.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25330243

RESUMEN

Crop models of crop growth are increasingly used to quantify the impact of global changes due to climate or crop management. Therefore, accuracy of simulation results is a major concern. Studies with ensembles of crop models can give valuable information about model accuracy and uncertainty, but such studies are difficult to organize and have only recently begun. We report on the largest ensemble study to date, of 27 wheat models tested in four contrasting locations for their accuracy in simulating multiple crop growth and yield variables. The relative error averaged over models was 24-38% for the different end-of-season variables including grain yield (GY) and grain protein concentration (GPC). There was little relation between error of a model for GY or GPC and error for in-season variables. Thus, most models did not arrive at accurate simulations of GY and GPC by accurately simulating preceding growth dynamics. Ensemble simulations, taking either the mean (e-mean) or median (e-median) of simulated values, gave better estimates than any individual model when all variables were considered. Compared to individual models, e-median ranked first in simulating measured GY and third in GPC. The error of e-mean and e-median declined with an increasing number of ensemble members, with little decrease beyond 10 models. We conclude that multimodel ensembles can be used to create new estimators with improved accuracy and consistency in simulating growth dynamics. We argue that these results are applicable to other crop species, and hypothesize that they apply more generally to ecological system models.


Asunto(s)
Clima , Modelos Biológicos , Triticum/crecimiento & desarrollo , Cambio Climático , Ambiente , Estaciones del Año
20.
Lasers Surg Med ; 47(9): 765-72, 2015 Nov.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26414998

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: As the population ages, osteometabolic diseases and osteoporotic fractures emerge, resulting in substantial healthcare resource utilization and impaired quality of life. Many types of mechanical stimulation have the potential of being recognized by bone cells after a mechanical sign is transformed into a biological one (a process called mechanotransduction). The therapeutic ultrasound (TU) is one of several resources capable of promoting bone cell mechanical stimulation. Therefore, the main purpose of present study was to evaluate the effect of TU on the proliferation of pre-osteoblasts using in vitro bioassays. STUDY DESIGN/MATERIALS AND METHODS: We used MC3T3-E1 pre-osteoblast lineage cells kept in Alpha medium. Cells were treated using pulsed mode therapeutic ultrasound, with frequency of 1 MHz, intensity of 0.2 W/cm(2) (SATA), duty cycle of 20%, for 30 minutes. Nifedipine and rapamycin were used to further investigate the role of L-type Ca(2+) channels and mTOR pathway. Intracellular calcium, TGF-ß1, magnesium, and the mRNA levels of osteopontin, osteonectin, NF-κB1, p38α were evaluated. RESULTS: The results show that TU stimulates the growth of MC3T3-E1 cells and decreases the supernatant calcium and magnesium content. Also, it increases intracellular calcium, activates NF-κB1 and mTOR complex via p38α. Moreover, TU promoted a decrease in the TGF-ß1 synthesis, which is a cell growth inhibitor. CONCLUSIONS: Therapeutic ultrasound, with frequency of 1 MHz, intensity of 0.2 W/cm(2) (SATA) and pulsed mode, for 30 minutes, was able to increase the proliferation of preosteoblast-like bone cells. This effect was mediated by a calcium influx, with a consequent activation of the mTOR pathway, through increased NF-κB1 and p38α.


Asunto(s)
Proliferación Celular/efectos de la radiación , Proteína Quinasa 14 Activada por Mitógenos/fisiología , FN-kappa B/fisiología , Osteoblastos/efectos de la radiación , Serina-Treonina Quinasas TOR/fisiología , Terapia por Ultrasonido , Células 3T3 , Animales , Técnicas de Cultivo de Célula , Diferenciación Celular , Ratones , Osteoblastos/metabolismo , Osteoblastos/patología
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