Modeling DREAMS impact: trends in new HIV diagnoses among women attending antenatal care clinics in DREAMS countries.

OBJECTIVES: To understand the impact of United States President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR's) DREAMS (Determined, Resilient, Empowered, AIDS-Free, Mentored, and Safe) Partnership on new HIV diagnoses among women in antenatal care (ANC) settings in 10 African countries from 2015 to 2020. DESIGN: We modeled spatiotemporal changes in new HIV diagnoses among women in ANC settings using PEPFAR data. Statistical tests were performed in R to compare differences in new diagnoses rates between DREAMS and non-DREAMS subnational units (SNUs) and to explore predictors of new diagnoses declines within DREAMS SNUs. METHODS: We used a predictive geospatial model to forecast the rate of new diagnoses for each time period in a 5 km grid cell (n = 861 SNUs). Linear model analyses were conducted using predictor variables: urbanicity, DREAMS geographic footprint, 'layering' proxy, and community-level male viral load suppression. RESULTS: New HIV diagnoses in ANC from 2015 to 2020 declined in nearly all SNUs. 'Always' DREAMS SNUs reported declines of 45% while 'Never' DREAMS SNUs reported a decline of only 37% (F = 8.1, 1 and 829 DF, P < 0.01). Within Always DREAMS SNUs, greater declines were seen in areas with a higher number of minimum services in their DREAMS primary package (t = 2.77, P < 0.01). CONCLUSION: New HIV diagnoses among women are declining in both DREAMS and non-DREAMS SNUs; mirroring HIV incidence decreases and reflecting increasing community viral load suppression and voluntary male medical circumcision rates. DREAMS programming may have contributed to accelerated declines of new HIV diagnoses in DREAMS SNUs compared with non-DREAMS SNUs. Increased progress is needed to further reduce the disparities between adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) and young men to achieve epidemic control.

The evolution of DREAMS: using data for continuous program improvement.

The DREAMS (Determined, Resilient, Empowered, AIDS-Free, Mentored, and Safe) Partnership, a public-private partnership launched by the United States President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), represents the largest investment in comprehensive HIV prevention for adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) ever made in a single global initiative. This paper describes the evolution of programming over time using the triangulation of multiple data sources to develop and refine an impactful program, as well as to improve efficacy and resource investment. Methods of analysis used to evolve this programming include reviews of literature on behavioral, biomedical and structural interventions, and HIV vulnerability; PEPFAR program data; external implementation science and impact studies;observations from site visits; in-depth reviews of program materials; and inputs from AGYW and other stakeholders. Key program improvements made in response to this real-time data use are described, including the rationale for programmatic changes and the evidence base for continual program refinements. This review emphasizes the importance and process of implementing the most effective combination of structural and biomedical HIV prevention programming, based on the best available science, while also adapting to local context in a way that does not compromise effectiveness or violate core implementation principles. Data from research and evaluation are critical to move the HIV prevention field toward more impactful and efficient programming responsive to the lived realities of AGYW. A central tenant to using these data sources effectively is the inclusion of AGYW in decision-making throughout the planning and implementation of programming.

The DREAMS core package of interventions: A comprehensive approach to preventing HIV among adolescent girls and young women.

In sub-Saharan Africa, adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) are 5 to 14 times more likely to be infected with HIV than their male peers. Every day, more than 750 AGYW are infected with HIV. Many factors make girls and young women particularly vulnerable to HIV, including gender-based violence, exclusion from economic opportunities, and a lack of access to secondary school. The President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) is dedicating significant resources through the Determined, Resilient, Empowered, AIDS-free, Mentored, and Safe (DREAMS) partnership to impact the lives of women and girls based on PEPFAR's mission to help countries achieve epidemic control of HIV/AIDS. The data show that new HIV infections must be reduced in AGYW, or the global community risks losing the extensive progress made towards reaching epidemic control. With support from PEPFAR and private sector partners-the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Gilead Sciences, Girl Effect, Johnson & Johnson and ViiV Healthcare, DREAMS works together with partner governments to deliver a core package of interventions that combines evidence-based approaches that go beyond the health sector, addressing the structural drivers that directly and indirectly increase girls' HIV risk. Not only is DREAMS an effort to reduce new HIV infections, but it aims to reduce other critical vulnerabilities such as gender-based violence. When girls and young women thrive, the effects are felt throughout their families, communities and countries.