The 2023 report of the MJA-Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: sustainability needed in Australia's health care sector.

The MJA-Lancet Countdown on health and climate change in Australia was established in 2017 and produced its first national assessment in 2018 and annual updates in 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022. It examines five broad domains: health hazards, exposures and impacts; adaptation, planning and resilience for health; mitigation actions and health co-benefits; economics and finance; and public and political engagement. In this, the sixth report of the MJA-Lancet Countdown, we track progress on an extensive suite of indicators across these five domains, accessing and presenting the latest data and further refining and developing our analyses. Our results highlight the health and economic costs of inaction on health and climate change. A series of major flood events across the four eastern states of Australia in 2022 was the main contributor to insured losses from climate-related catastrophes of $7.168 billion - the highest amount on record. The floods also directly caused 23 deaths and resulted in the displacement of tens of thousands of people. High red meat and processed meat consumption and insufficient consumption of fruit and vegetables accounted for about half of the 87 166 diet-related deaths in Australia in 2021. Correction of this imbalance would both save lives and reduce the heavy carbon footprint associated with meat production. We find signs of progress on health and climate change. Importantly, the Australian Government released Australia's first National Health and Climate Strategy, and the Government of Western Australia is preparing a Health Sector Adaptation Plan. We also find increasing action on, and engagement with, health and climate change at a community level, with the number of electric vehicle sales almost doubling in 2022 compared with 2021, and with a 65% increase in coverage of health and climate change in the media in 2022 compared with 2021. Overall, the urgency of substantial enhancements in Australia's mitigation and adaptation responses to the enormous health and climate change challenge cannot be overstated. Australia's energy system, and its health care sector, currently emit an unreasonable and unjust proportion of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. As the Lancet Countdown enters its second and most critical phase in the leadup to 2030, the depth and breadth of our assessment of health and climate change will be augmented to increasingly examine Australia in its regional context, and to better measure and track key issues in Australia such as mental health and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander health and wellbeing.

Environmental DNA analysis of airborne poaceae (grass) pollen reveals taxonomic diversity across seasons and climate zones.

BACKGROUND: Grasses populate most biogeographical zones, and their diversity influences allergic sensitisation to pollen. Previously, the contribution of different Poaceae subfamilies to airborne pollen has mostly been inferred from historical herbarium records. We recently applied environmental (e)DNA metabarcoding at one subtropical site revealing that successive airborne grass pollen peaks were derived from repeated flowering of Chloridoid and Panicoid grasses over a season. This study aimed to compare spatiotemporal patterns in grass pollen exposure across seasons and climate zones. METHODS: Airborne pollen concentrations across two austral pollen seasons spanning 2017-2019 at subtropical (Mutdapilly and Rocklea, Queensland) and temperate (Macquarie Park and Richmond, New South Wales) sites, were determined with a routine volumetric impaction sampler and counting by light microscopy. Poaceae rbcL metabarcode sequences amplified from daily pollen samples collected once per week were assigned to subfamily and genus using a ribosomal classifier and compared with Atlas of Living Australia sighting records. RESULTS: eDNA analysis revealed distinct dominance patterns of grass pollen at various sites: Panicoid grasses prevailed in both subtropical Mutdapilly and temperate Macquarie Park, whilst Chloridoid grasses dominated the subtropical Rocklea site. Overall, subtropical sites showed significantly higher proportion of pollen from Chloridoid grasses than temperate sites, whereas the temperate sites showed a significantly higher proportion of pollen from Pooideae grasses than subtropical sites. Timing of airborne Pooid (spring), Panicoid and Chloridoid (late spring to autumn), and Arundinoid (autumn) pollen were significantly related to number of days from mid-winter. Proportions of eDNA for subfamilies correlated with distributions grass sighting records between climate zones. CONCLUSIONS: eDNA analysis enabled finer taxonomic discernment of Poaceae pollen records across seasons and climate zones with implications for understanding adaptation of grasslands to climate change, and the complexity of pollen exposure for patients with allergic respiratory diseases.

Associations between violent crime inside and outside, air temperature, urban heat island magnitude and urban green space.

There are more incidents of violence in summer and on hot days, a trend likely to be exacerbated by climate change. Urban areas experience additional temperature modulation due to the urban form, however, to date, no studies have considered the effect of the urban heat island (UHI) or green space with respect to the temperature-violence relationship. This study modelled the relationship between the number of daily violent crime incidents that occurred inside or outside between July 2013 and June 2018, and the average surface UHI or percentage greencover (including grasses, shrubs and trees) within each local government area in Greater Sydney, Australia. Panelised negative binomial time series regression models indicated that the violent crime rate was associated with higher surface UHI for crimes committed outside (p = 0.006) but not inside (p = 0.072). Greater percentage of all vegetation was associated with significantly lower rates of violent crime committed outside (p = 0.011) but was not associated with violent crimes committed inside (p = 0.430). More socio-economic disadvantage was associated with higher rates of violent crime committed inside (p = 0.002) but not outside (p = 0.145). Greater temperature was non-linearly associated with higher rates of violent crime committed both inside and outside (p < 0.001). The findings of this study are important because both violence and heat exposure are critical health issues and will be stressed by urbanisation and climate change. The expansion of green space and/or reduction in UHI may mitigate these effects.

The 2022 report of the MJA-Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: Australia unprepared and paying the price.

The MJA-Lancet Countdown on health and climate change in Australia was established in 2017 and produced its first national assessment in 2018 and annual updates in 2019, 2020 and 2021. It examines five broad domains: climate change impacts, exposures and vulnerability; adaptation, planning and resilience for health; mitigation actions and health co-benefits; economics and finance; and public and political engagement. In this, the fifth year of the MJA-Lancet Countdown, we track progress on an extensive suite of indicators across these five domains, accessing and presenting the latest data and further refining and developing our analyses. Within just two years, Australia has experienced two unprecedented national catastrophes - the 2019-2020 summer heatwaves and bushfires and the 2021-2022 torrential rains and flooding. Such events are costing lives and displacing tens of thousands of people. Further, our analysis shows that there are clear signs that Australia's health emergency management capacity substantially decreased in 2021. We find some signs of progress with respect to health and climate change. The states continue to lead the way in health and climate change adaptation planning, with the Victorian plan being published in early 2022. At the national level, we note progress in health and climate change research funding by the National Health and Medical Research Council. We now also see an acceleration in the uptake of electric vehicles and continued uptake of and employment in renewable energy. However, we also find Australia's transition to renewables and zero carbon remains unacceptably slow, and the Australian Government's continuing failure to produce a national climate change and health adaptation plan places the health and lives of Australians at unnecessary risk today, which does not bode well for the future.

The AusPollen partnership project: Allergenic airborne grass pollen seasonality and magnitude across temperate and subtropical eastern Australia, 2016-2020.

BACKGROUND: Allergic rhinitis affects half a billion people globally, including a fifth of the Australian population. As the foremost outdoor allergen source, ambient grass pollen exposure is likely to be altered by climate change. The AusPollen Partnership aimed to standardize pollen monitoring and examine broad-scale biogeographical and meteorological factors influencing interannual variation in seasonality of grass pollen aerobiology in Australia. METHODS: Daily airborne grass and other pollen concentrations in four eastern Australian cities separated by over 1700 km, were simultaneously monitored using Hirst-style samplers following the Australian Interim Pollen and Spore Monitoring Standard and Protocols over four seasons from 2016 to 2020. The grass seasonal pollen integral was determined. Gridded rainfall, temperature, and satellite-derived grassland sources up to 100 km from the monitoring site were analysed. RESULTS: The complexity of grass pollen seasons was related to latitude with multiple major summer-autumn peaks in Brisbane, major spring and minor summer peaks in Sydney and Canberra, and single major spring peaks occurring in Melbourne. The subtropical site of Brisbane showed a higher proportion of grass out of total pollen than more temperate sites. The magnitude of the grass seasonal pollen integral was correlated with pasture greenness, rainfall and number of days over 30 °C, preceding and within the season, up to 100 km radii from monitoring sites. CONCLUSIONS: Interannual fluctuations in Australian grass pollen season magnitude are strongly influenced by regional biogeography and both pre- and in-season weather. This first continental scale, Southern Hemisphere standardized aerobiology dataset forms the basis to track shifts in pollen seasonality, biodiversity and impacts on allergic respiratory diseases.

The 2021 report of the MJA-Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: Australia increasingly out on a limb.

The MJA-Lancet Countdown on health and climate change in Australia was established in 2017, and produced its first national assessment in 2018, its first annual update in 2019, and its second annual update in 2020. It examines indicators across five broad domains: climate change impacts, exposures and vulnerability; adaptation, planning and resilience for health; mitigation actions and health co-benefits; economics and finance; and public and political engagement. Our special report in 2020 focused on the unprecedented and catastrophic 2019-20 Australian bushfire season, highlighting indicators that explore the relationships between health, climate change and bushfires. For 2021, we return to reporting on the full suite of indicators across each of the five domains and have added some new indicators. We find that Australians are increasingly exposed to and vulnerable to excess heat and that this is already limiting our way of life, increasing the risk of heat stress during outdoor sports, and decreasing work productivity across a range of sectors. Other weather extremes are also on the rise, resulting in escalating social, economic and health impacts. Climate change disproportionately threatens Indigenous Australians' wellbeing in multiple and complex ways. In response to these threats, we find positive action at the individual, local, state and territory levels, with growing uptake of rooftop solar and electric vehicles, and the beginnings of appropriate adaptation planning. However, this is severely undermined by national policies and actions that are contrary and increasingly place Australia out on a limb. Australia has responded well to the COVID-19 public health crisis (while still emerging from the bushfire crisis that preceded it) and it now needs to respond to and prepare for the health crises resulting from climate change.

The 2020 special report of the MJA-Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: lessons learnt from Australia's "Black Summer".

The MJA-Lancet Countdown on health and climate change was established in 2017, and produced its first Australian national assessment in 2018 and its first annual update in 2019. It examines indicators across five broad domains: climate change impacts, exposures and vulnerability; adaptation, planning and resilience for health; mitigation actions and health co-benefits; economics and finance; and public and political engagement. In the wake of the unprecedented and catastrophic 2019-20 Australian bushfire season, in this special report we present the 2020 update, with a focus on the relationship between health, climate change and bushfires, highlighting indicators that explore these linkages. In an environment of continuing increases in summer maximum temperatures and heatwave intensity, substantial increases in both fire risk and population exposure to bushfires are having an impact on Australia's health and economy. As a result of the "Black Summer" bushfires, the monthly airborne particulate matter less than 2.5 µm in diameter (PM2.5 ) concentrations in New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory in December 2019 were the highest of any month in any state or territory over the period 2000-2019 at 26.0 µg/m3 and 71.6 µg/m3 respectively, and insured economic losses were $2.2 billion. We also found growing awareness of and engagement with the links between health and climate change, with a 50% increase in scientific publications and a doubling of newspaper articles on the topic in Australia in 2019 compared with 2018. However, despite clear and present need, Australia still lacks a nationwide adaptation plan for health. As Australia recovers from the compounded effects of the bushfires and the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the health profession has a pivotal role to play. It is uniquely suited to integrate the response to these short term threats with the longer term public health implications of climate change, and to argue for the economic recovery from COVID-19 to align with and strengthen Australia's commitments under the Paris Agreement.

The 2019 report of the MJA-Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: a turbulent year with mixed progress.

The MJA-Lancet Countdown on health and climate change was established in 2017 and produced its first Australian national assessment in 2018. It examined 41 indicators across five broad domains: climate change impacts, exposures and vulnerability; adaptation, planning and resilience for health; mitigation actions and health co-benefits; economics and finance; and public and political engagement. It found that, overall, Australia is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change on health, and that policy inaction in this regard threatens Australian lives. In this report we present the 2019 update. We track progress on health and climate change in Australia across the same five broad domains and many of the same indicators as in 2018. A number of new indicators are introduced this year, including one focused on wildfire exposure, and another on engagement in health and climate change in the corporate sector. Several of the previously reported indicators are not included this year, either due to their discontinuation by the parent project, the Lancet Countdown, or because insufficient new data were available for us to meaningfully provide an update to the indicator. In a year marked by an Australian federal election in which climate change featured prominently, we find mixed progress on health and climate change in this country. There has been progress in renewable energy generation, including substantial employment increases in this sector. There has also been some progress at state and local government level. However, there continues to be no engagement on health and climate change in the Australian federal Parliament, and Australia performs poorly across many of the indicators in comparison to other developed countries; for example, it is one of the world's largest net exporters of coal and its electricity generation from low carbon sources is low. We also find significantly increasing exposure of Australians to heatwaves and, in most states and territories, continuing elevated suicide rates at higher temperatures. We conclude that Australia remains at significant risk of declines in health due to climate change, and that substantial and sustained national action is urgently required in order to prevent this.

Hot and bothered? Associations between temperature and crime in Australia.

Temperature and crime is one of the most extreme relationships between the atmospheric environment and human behaviour, yet our knowledge about it is primarily based on Northern Hemisphere research. This study used both temporal and spatial models to investigate the relationship between temperature and crime in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, using an 11-year data set. Results suggested that assault and theft counts were significantly higher in summer than winter (17.8 and 3.7%, respectively), while fraud counts were not significantly different. Using linear and quadratic terms for maximum daily temperature, a linear regression model indicated that daily assault counts significantly increased with rising temperature and the rate of increase slowed as temperatures exceeded 30 °C. Theft counts significantly increased with rising temperature then declined as temperatures exceeded 30°C. Again, there was no evidence of a relationship between temperature and frequency of fraud count. Spatial modelling revealed that 96% of local government areas (LGAs) in NSW had a higher summer assault rate than winter. The findings of this study provide an empirical foundation for understanding crime-temperature relationships in Australia.

Thunderstorm Asthma and Climate Change.

This JAMA Insights in the Climate Change and Health Series defines thunderstorm asthma, describes its effects and increased rate of occurrence, and highlights recommendations for improved response during future events.

The MJA-Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: Australian policy inaction threatens lives.

Climate plays an important role in human health and it is well established that climate change can have very significant impacts in this regard. In partnership with The Lancet and the MJA, we present the inaugural Australian Countdown assessment of progress on climate change and health. This comprehensive assessment examines 41 indicators across five broad sections: climate change impacts, exposures and vulnerability; adaptation, planning and resilience for health; mitigation actions and health co-benefits; economics and finance; and public and political engagement. These indicators and the methods used for each are largely consistent with those of the Lancet Countdown global assessment published in October 2017, but with an Australian focus. Significant developments include the addition of a new indicator on mental health. Overall, we find that Australia is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change on health, and that policy inaction in this regard threatens Australian lives. In a number of respects, Australia has gone backwards and now lags behind other high income countries such as Germany and the United Kingdom. Examples include the persistence of a very high carbon-intensive energy system in Australia, and its slow transition to renewables and low carbon electricity generation. However, we also find some examples of good progress, such as heatwave response planning. Given the overall poor state of progress on climate change and health in Australia, this country now has an enormous opportunity to take action and protect human health and lives. Australia has the technical knowhow and intellect to do this, and our annual updates of this assessment will track Australia's engagement with and progress on this vitally important issue.

Climate change: allergens and allergic diseases.

Climate change has been described as the biggest global health threat of the 21st century. The atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide, have increased significantly since the start of the Industrial Era around 1750, with much of this increase occurring over just the last 50 years or so. This is resulting in warming of the climate system as well as changes in precipitation and weather and climate extremes. These changes in climate are having wide-ranging impacts on the Earth's physical, biological and human systems, including human health. It is these impacts of climate change on human health that are the focus of this paper, particularly the impacts on allergens and allergic diseases. Such impacts are particularly significant in many countries where the prevalence of such diseases is high and/or increasing. There is now compelling evidence that rising air temperatures and carbon dioxide concentrations are, in some plant species, resulting in increased pollen production and allergenicity and advancement and lengthening of the pollen season. Changes in extreme events, such as thunderstorms and tropical cyclones, will also have impacts on allergic diseases, with, for example, the flooding associated with tropical cyclones leading to proliferation of mould growth in damp homes. The article also considers a range of responses to these health threats, including greenhouse gas mitigation, and adaptation strategies, such as enhanced environmental monitoring and health surveillance and adequate planning for the future medical workforce.

Aerobiology in the International Journal of Biometeorology, 1957-2017.

Aerobiology and biometeorology are related fields. Here we provide a broad review of aerobiology articles published in the International Journal of Biometeorology (IJB) over the past 60 years. We consider how the quantity of such work has varied over this period as well as which regions and countries have been the focus of such work, and where there is a relative paucity. We then focus on a number of highlights and themes in this research, including aerobiology and climate change and aerobiological modelling and forecasting. While much of the article focusses on airborne pollen research, we also discuss the extent to which other airborne organic particles such as fungal spores and bacteria have been the focus of research published in IJB. Also considered are knowledge gaps and research needs and priorities with respect to the field of aerobiology. While the IJB has been one of the main platforms for presenting aerobiological research over recent decades, the article highlights the need for the field of aerobiology to embrace new sampling technologies such as spectral analysis and next-generation sequencing to identify and quantify airborne biological particles.

A Comparison of Heat Wave Response Plans From an Aged Care Facility Perspective.

Heat waves result in significant excess mortality, particularly amongst elderly people. This article examines selected heat wave response plans at national, state/provincial, and municipal levels, with a particular focus on specific responses aimed at residents of aged care facilities. We sourced heat wave response plans from several countries that are experiencing a demographic transition that features a growing aging population. We collected a total of 23 heat wave response plans; most of those plans were from Australia, with only three plans each available from Canada and the UK, and only two available from the U.S. Key components found across the plans were analysis of temperature thresholds, heat stress prevention measures, and communication strategies. Only three heat wave response plans that were analyzed included specific guidance for aged care facilities. Projected increases in frequency and duration of heat waves in coming decades underline the need for governments to implement effective guidelines that include specific provisions for aged care facilities.

Regional and seasonal variation in airborne grass pollen levels between cities of Australia and New Zealand.

Although grass pollen is widely regarded as the major outdoor aeroallergen source in Australia and New Zealand (NZ), no assemblage of airborne pollen data for the region has been previously compiled. Grass pollen count data collected at 14 urban sites in Australia and NZ over periods ranging from 1 to 17 years were acquired, assembled and compared, revealing considerable spatiotemporal variability. Although direct comparison between these data is problematic due to methodological differences between monitoring sites, the following patterns are apparent. Grass pollen seasons tended to have more than one peak from tropics to latitudes of 37°S and single peaks at sites south of this latitude. A longer grass pollen season was therefore found at sites below 37°S, driven by later seasonal end dates for grass growth and flowering. Daily pollen counts increased with latitude; subtropical regions had seasons of both high intensity and long duration. At higher latitude sites, the single springtime grass pollen peak is potentially due to a cooler growing season and a predominance of pollen from C3 grasses. The multiple peaks at lower latitude sites may be due to a warmer season and the predominance of pollen from C4 grasses. Prevalence and duration of seasonal allergies may reflect the differing pollen seasons across Australia and NZ. It must be emphasized that these findings are tentative due to limitations in the available data, reinforcing the need to implement standardized pollen-monitoring methods across Australasia. Furthermore, spatiotemporal differences in grass pollen counts indicate that local, current, standardized pollen monitoring would assist with the management of pollen allergen exposure for patients at risk of allergic rhinitis and asthma.