Epidemiological connectivity between humans and animals across an urban landscape.

Urbanization is predicted to be a key driver of disease emergence through human exposure to novel, animal-borne pathogens. However, while we suspect that urban landscapes are primed to expose people to novel animal-borne diseases, evidence for the mechanisms by which this occurs is lacking. To address this, we studied how bacterial genes are shared between wild animals, livestock, and humans (n = 1,428) across Nairobi, Kenya-one of the world's most rapidly developing cities. Applying a multilayer network framework, we show that low biodiversity (of both natural habitat and vertebrate wildlife communities), coupled with livestock management practices and more densely populated urban environments, promotes sharing of Escherichia coli-borne bacterial mobile genetic elements between animals and humans. These results provide empirical support for hypotheses linking resource provision, the biological simplification of urban landscapes, and human and livestock demography to urban dynamics of cross-species pathogen transmission at a landscape scale. Urban areas where high densities of people and livestock live in close association with synanthropes (species such as rodents that are more competent reservoirs for zoonotic pathogens) should be prioritized for disease surveillance and control.

Socio-ecological drivers of vertebrate biodiversity and human-animal interfaces across an urban landscape.

Urbanization can have profound impacts on the distributional ecology of wildlife and livestock, with implications for biodiversity conservation, ecosystem services and human health. A wealth of studies have assessed biotic responses to urbanization in North America and Europe, but there is little empirical evidence that directly links human activities to urban biodiversity in the tropics. Results from a large-scale field study conducted in Nairobi, Kenya, are used to explore the impact of human activities on the biodiversity of wildlife and livestock with which humans co-exist across the city. The structure of sympatric wildlife, livestock and human populations are characterized using unsupervised machine learning, and statistical modelling is used to relate compositional variation in these communities to socio-ecological drivers occurring across the city. By characterizing landscape-scale drivers acting on these interfaces, we demonstrate that socioeconomics, elevation and subsequent changes in habitat have measurable impacts upon the diversity, density and species assemblage of wildlife, livestock and humans. Restructuring of wildlife and livestock assemblages (both in terms of species diversity and composition) has important implications for the emergence of novel diseases at urban interfaces, and we therefore use our results to generate a set of testable hypotheses that explore the influence of urban change on microbial communities. These results provide novel insight into the impact of urbanization on biodiversity in the tropics. An understanding of associations between urban processes and the structure of human and animal populations is required to link urban development to conservation efforts and risks posed by disease emergence to human health, ultimately informing sustainable urban development policy.

A candidate tolerance gene identified in a natural population of field voles (Microtus agrestis).

The animal immune response has hitherto been viewed primarily in the context of resistance only. However, individuals can also employ a tolerance strategy to maintain good health in the face of ongoing infection. To shed light on the genetic and physiological basis of tolerance, we use a natural population of field voles, Microtus agrestis, to search for an association between the expression of the transcription factor Gata3, previously identified as a marker of tolerance in this system, and polymorphism in 84 immune and nonimmune genes. Our results show clear evidence for an association between Gata3 expression and polymorphism in the Fcer1a gene, with the explanatory power of this polymorphism being comparable to that of other nongenetic variables previously identified as important predictors of Gata3 expression. We also uncover the possible mechanism behind this association using an existing protein-protein interaction network for the mouse model rodent, Mus musculus, which we validate using our own expression network for M. agrestis. Our results suggest that the polymorphism in question may be working at the transcriptional level, leading to changes in the expression of the Th2-related genes, Tyrosine-protein kinase BTK and Tyrosine-protein kinase TXK, and hence potentially altering the strength of the Th2 response, of which Gata3 is a mediator. We believe our work has implications for both treatment and control of infectious disease.

Endemic Hantavirus in Field Voles, Northern England.

We report a PCR survey of hantavirus infection in an extensive field vole (Microtus agrestis) population present in the Kielder Forest, northern England. A Tatenale virus-like lineage was frequently detected (≈17% prevalence) in liver tissue. Lineages genetically similar to Tatenale virus are likely to be endemic in northern England.

Enhancement of wildlife disease surveillance using multiplex quantitative PCR: development of qPCR assays for major pathogens in UK squirrel populations.

Rapid development in polymerase chain reaction (PCR) technology has revolutionised the speed and accuracy of many diagnostic assays. However, comparatively few wildlife epidemiological studies use quantitative PCR (qPCR) for pathogen detection, even fewer employ an internal control, to ensure confidence in negative results, and PCR's ability to multiplex and therefore detect several targets in a single reaction is underutilised. Here, we describe the development of two multiplex qPCR assays for the red and grey squirrel that detect the pathogens squirrelpox virus (SQPV) and adenovirus in squirrels (SADV), both of which cause mortality in the red squirrel. Both assays use a section of the squirrel phosphoglycerate kinase gene as an endogenous internal control that identifies and compensates for both, inadequate sampling or PCR inhibition. Tests on infected squirrel tissue demonstrate that simple swab samples (particularly from distal antebrachial skin) are sufficient to detect and identify the relative quantity of SQPV DNA in both squirrel species, while rectal swabs and blood cell pellets can be used to reliably indicate SADV infection. These assays are sensitive and specific with an endogenous internal control providing confidence in negative results and allowing comparison across laboratories. Using such assays should prove advantageous in wildlife studies with limited resources while allowing the maximum data yield.

Ljungan virus is endemic in rodents in the UK.

Ljungan virus is a recently identified member of the family Picornaviridae that was isolated from bank voles in Sweden. LjV has been associated with [corrected] type 1 diabetes-like symptoms and myocarditis in bank voles (Myodes glareolus), and it has been suggested that it has zoonotic potential. Here, we show for the first time that Ljungan virus is prevalent (20-27 % positive by PCR) in four species of UK rodent (Myodes glareolus [bank vole], Apodemus sylvaticus [wood mouse], Microtus agrestis [field vole] and Mus musculus [house mouse]). Sequence analysis showed that Ljungan virus of genotypes 1 and 2 were present, although genotype 1 was more prevalent and more frequently associated with brain tissue. This study highlights the prevalence of Ljungan virus in the UK and the need for assessment [corrected] of its zoonotic potential.

Host-pathogen time series data in wildlife support a transmission function between density and frequency dependence.

A key aim in epidemiology is to understand how pathogens spread within their host populations. Central to this is an elucidation of a pathogen's transmission dynamics. Mathematical models have generally assumed that either contact rate between hosts is linearly related to host density (density-dependent) or that contact rate is independent of density (frequency-dependent), but attempts to confirm either these or alternative transmission functions have been rare. Here, we fit infection equations to 6 years of data on cowpox virus infection (a zoonotic pathogen) for 4 natural populations to investigate which of these transmission functions is best supported by the data. We utilize a simple reformulation of the traditional transmission equations that greatly aids the estimation of the relationship between density and host contact rate. Our results provide support for an infection rate that is a saturating function of host density. Moreover, we find strong support for seasonality in both the transmission coefficient and the relationship between host contact rate and host density, probably reflecting seasonal variations in social behavior and/or host susceptibility to infection. We find, too, that the identification of an appropriate loss term is a key component in inferring the transmission mechanism. Our study illustrates how time series data of the host-pathogen dynamics, especially of the number of susceptible individuals, can greatly facilitate the fitting of mechanistic disease models.

Why is leptospirosis hard to avoid for the impoverished? Deconstructing leptospirosis transmission risk and the drivers of knowledge, attitudes, and practices in a disadvantaged community in Salvador, Brazil.

Several studies have identified socioeconomic and environmental risk factors for infectious disease, but the relationship between these and knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP), and more importantly their web of effects on individual infection risk, have not previously been evaluated. We conducted a cross-sectional KAP survey in an urban disadvantaged community in Salvador, Brazil, leveraging on simultaneously collected fine-scale environmental and epidemiological data on leptospirosis transmission. Residents' knowledge influenced their attitudes which influenced their practices. However, different KAP variables were driven by different socioeconomic and environmental factors; and while improved KAP variables reduced risk, there were additional effects of socioeconomic and environmental factors on risk. For example, males and those of lower socioeconomic status were at greater risk, but once we controlled for KAP, male gender and lower socioeconomic status themselves were not direct drivers of seropositivity. Employment was linked to better knowledge and a less contaminated environment, and hence lower risk, but being employed was independently associated with a higher, not lower risk of leptospirosis transmission, suggesting travel to work as a high risk activity. Our results show how such complex webs of influence can be disentangled. They indicate that public health messaging and interventions should take into account this complexity and prioritize factors that limit exposure and support appropriate prevention practices.

Population dynamics of synanthropic rodents after a chemical and infrastructural intervention in an urban low-income community.

Synanthropic rodents are ubiquitous in low-income communities and pose risks for human health, as they are generally resistant to control programs. However, few or no studies have evaluated the long-term effect of chemical and infrastructural interventions on rodent population dynamics, especially in urban low-income communities, or evaluated the potential recovery of their population following interventions. We conducted a longitudinal study in a low-income community in the city of Salvador (BA, Brazil) to characterize the effect of interventions (chemical and infrastructural) on the dynamics of rodent population, and documented the post-intervention recovery of their population. We evaluated the degree of rodent infestation in 117 households/sampling points over three years (2014-2017), using tracking plates, a proxy for rodent abundance/activity. We reported a significant lower rodent activity/abundance after the chemical and infrastructural interventions (Z = -4.691 (p < 0.001)), with track plate positivity decreasing to 28% from 70% after and before interventions respectively. Therefore, the combination of chemical and infrastructural interventions significantly decreased the degree of rodent infestation in the study area. In addition, no rodent population rebound was recorded until almost a year post-intervention, and the post-intervention infestation level did not attain the pre-intervention level all through the study. Moreover, among pre-treatment conditions, access to sewer rather than the availability of food was the variable most closely associated with household rodent infestation. Our study indicates that Integrated Pest Management (IPM)-approaches are more effective in reducing rodent infestation than the use of a single method. Our findings will be useful in providing guidance for long-term rodent control programs, especially in urban low-income communities.

The analysis of immunological profiles in wild animals: a case study on immunodynamics in the field vole, Microtus agrestis.

A revolutionary advance in ecological immunology is that postgenomic technologies now allow molecular mediators defined in laboratory models to be measured at the mRNA level in field studies of many naturally occurring species. Here, we demonstrate the application of such an approach to generate meaningful immunological profiles for wild mammals. We sampled a natural field vole population across the year (n = 307) and developed a battery of cellular assays in which functionally different pro- and anti-inflammatory signalling responses (transcription factors and cytokines) were activated and quantified by Q-PCR. Temporal trends were the strongest feature in the expression data, although some life history stages (mating vs. nonmating males and pregnant females) were also associated with significant variation. There was a striking set of significant negative associations between inflammatory mediators and condition indices reflecting packed erythrocyte volume and relative liver size, spleen size and splenocyte count. Grouped (principal component) measures of inflammatory and anti-inflammatory expression were high in winter, with minima in the breeding season that occurred earlier for grouped anti-inflammatory responses than for grouped inflammatory responses. Some individual immunological mediators also showed patterns unrelated to the breeding season or annual periodic cues. For example, interferon regulatory factor 5 (IRF5) expression declined throughout the study period, indicating a systematic trend in antimicrobial defences. Pinpointing the causes and consequences of such variation may help identify underlying environmental drivers of individual fitness and demographic fluctuation.

Hantavirus infections in fluctuating host populations: the role of maternal antibodies.

Infected females may transfer maternal antibodies (MatAbs) to their offspring, which may then be transiently protected against infections the mother has encountered. However, the role of maternal protection in infectious disease dynamics in wildlife has largely been neglected. Here, we investigate the effects of Puumala hantavirus (PUUV)-specific MatAbs on PUUV dynamics, using 7 years' data from a cyclic bank vole population in Finland. For the first time to our knowledge, we partition seropositivity data from a natural population into separate dynamic patterns for MatAbs and infection. The likelihood of young of the year carrying PUUV-specific MatAbs during the breeding season correlated positively with infection prevalence in the overwintered parent population in the preceding spring. The probability of PUUV infection varied between seasons (highest in spring, lowest in late summer) and depended on population structure, but was also, in late autumn, notably, negatively related to summer MatAb prevalence, as well as to infection prevalence earlier in the breeding season. Hence, our results suggest that high infection prevalence in the early breeding season leads to a high proportion of transiently immune young individuals, which causes delays in transmission. This suggests, in turn, that MatAb protection has the potential to affect infection dynamics in natural populations.

Individual growth rates in natural field vole, Microtus agrestis, populations exhibiting cyclic population dynamics.

Rodents that have multi-annual cycles of density are known to have flexible growth strategies, and the "Chitty effect", whereby adults in the high-density phase of the cycle exhibit larger average body mass than during the low phase, is a well-documented feature of cyclic populations. Despite this, there have been no studies that have repeatedly monitored individual vole growth over time from all phases of a density cycle, in order to evaluate whether such variation in body size is due to differences in juvenile growth rates, differences in growth periods, or differential survival of particularly large or small voles. This study compares growth trajectories from voles during the peak, increase and crash phases of the cycle in order to evaluate whether voles are exhibiting fast or slow growth strategies. We found that although voles reach highest asymptotic weights in the peak phase and lowest asymptotes during the crash, initial growth rates were not significantly different. This suggests that voles attain larger body size during the peak phase as a result of growing for longer.

Delineating Anaplasma phagocytophilum ecotypes in coexisting, discrete enzootic cycles.

The emerging tick-borne pathogen Anaplasma phagocytophilum is under increasing scrutiny for the existence of subpopulations that are adapted to different natural cycles. Here, we characterized the diversity of A. phagocytophilum genotypes circulating in a natural system that includes multiple hosts and at least 2 tick species, Ixodes ricinus and the small mammal specialist I. trianguliceps. We encountered numerous genotypes, but only 1 in rodents, with the remainder limited to deer and host-seeking I. ricinus ticks. The absence of the rodent-associated genotype from host-seeking I. ricinus ticks was notable because we demonstrated that rodents fed a large proportion of the I. ricinus larval population and that these larvae were abundant when infections caused by the rodent-associated genotype were prevalent. These observations are consistent with the conclusion that genotypically distinct subpopulations of A. phagocytophilum are restricted to coexisting but separate enzootic cycles and suggest that this restriction may result from specific vector compatibility.

Seasonal host dynamics drive the timing of recurrent epidemics in a wildlife population.

The seasonality of recurrent epidemics has been largely neglected, especially where patterns are not driven by forces external to the population. Here, we use data on cowpox virus in field voles to explore the seasonal patterns in wildlife (variable abundance) populations and compare these with patterns previously found in humans. Timing in our system was associated with both the number and the rate of recruitment of susceptible hosts. A plentiful and sustained supply of susceptible hosts throughout the summer gave rise to a steady rise in infected hosts and a late peak. A meagre supply more limited in time was often insufficient to sustain an increase in infected hosts, leading to an early peak followed by a decline. These seasonal patterns differed from those found in humans, but the underlying association found between the timing and the supply of susceptible hosts was similar to that in humans. We also combine our data with a model to explore these differences between humans and wildlife. Model results emphasize the importance of the interplay between seasonal infection and recruitment and suggest that our empirical patterns have a relevance extending beyond our own system.

The drivers of squirrelpox virus dynamics in its grey squirrel reservoir host.

Many pathogens of conservation concern circulate endemically within natural wildlife reservoir hosts and it is imperative to understand the individual and ecological drivers of natural transmission dynamics, if any threat to a related endangered species is to be assessed. Our study highlights the key drivers of infection and shedding dynamics of squirrelpox virus (SQPV) in its reservoir grey squirrel (Sciurus carolinensis) population. To clarify SQPV dynamics in this population, longitudinal data from a 16-month mark-recapture study were analysed, combining serology with real-time quantitative PCR to identify periods of acute viraemia and chronic viral shedding. At the population level, we found SQPV infection prevalence, viral load and shedding varied seasonally, peaking in autumn and early spring. Individually, SQPV was shown to be a chronic infection in >80% of grey squirrels, with viral loads persisting over time and bouts of potential recrudescence or reinfection occurring. A key recurring factor significantly associated with SQPV infection risk was the presence of co-infecting squirrel adenovirus (ADV). In dual infected squirrels, longitudinal analysis showed that prior ADV viraemia increased the subsequent SQPV load in the blood. However, there was a strong, negative association between prior ADV viraemia and subsequent SQPV shedding from the forearm, probably caused by ADV prolonging the SQPV acute viraemic phase, so delaying onset of the chronic shedding phase, and thereby altering viral shedding patterns over the time scales examined here. Hence, co-circulating ADV infection may be involved in mediating both the quantitative levels of SQPV infection and the timing and degree of subsequent infectiousness of grey squirrels.

Clinically relevant antimicrobial resistance at the wildlife-livestock-human interface in Nairobi: an epidemiological study.

BACKGROUND: Antimicrobial resistance is one of the great challenges facing global health security in the modern era. Wildlife, particularly those that use urban environments, are an important but understudied component of epidemiology of antimicrobial resistance. We investigated antimicrobial resistance overlap between sympatric wildlife, humans, livestock, and their shared environment across the developing city of Nairobi, Kenya. We use these data to examine the role of urban wildlife in the spread of clinically relevant antimicrobial resistance. METHODS: 99 households across Nairobi were randomly selected on the basis of socioeconomic stratification. A detailed survey was administered to household occupants, and samples (n=2102) were collected from the faeces of 75 wildlife species inhabiting household compounds (ie, the household and its perimeter; n=849), 13 livestock species (n=656), and humans (n=333), and from the external environment (n=288). Escherichia coli, our sentinel organism, was cultured and a single isolate from each sample tested for sensitivity to 13 antibiotics. Diversity of antimicrobial resistant phenotypes was compared between urban wildlife, humans, livestock, and the environment, to investigate whether wildlife are a net source for antimicrobial resistance in Nairobi. Generalised linear mixed models were used to determine whether the prevalence of antimicrobial resistant phenotypes and multidrug-resistant E coli carriage in urban wildlife is linked to variation in ecological traits, such as foraging behaviour, and to determine household-level risk factors for sharing of antimicrobial resistance between humans, wildlife, and livestock. FINDINGS: E coli were isolated from 485 samples collected from wildlife between Sept 6,2015, and Sept 28, 2016. Wildlife carried a low prevalence of E coli isolates susceptible to all antibiotics tested (45 [9%] of 485 samples) and a high prevalence of clinically relevant multidrug resistance (252 [52%] of 485 samples), which varied between taxa and by foraging traits. Multiple isolates were resistant to one agent from at least seven antimicrobial classes tested for, and a single isolate was resistant to all antibiotics tested for in the study. The phenotypic diversity of antimicrobial-resistant E coli in wildlife was lower than in livestock, humans, and the environment. Within household compounds, statistical models identified two interfaces for exchange of antimicrobial resistance: between both rodents, humans and their rubbish, and seed-eating birds, humans and their rubbish; and between seed-eating birds, cattle, and bovine manure. INTERPRETATION: Urban wildlife carry a high burden of clinically relevant antimicrobial-resistant E coli in Nairobi, exhibiting resistance to drugs considered crucial for human medicine by WHO. Identifiable traits of the wildlife contribute to this exposure; however, compared with humans, livestock, and the environment, low phenotypic diversity in wildlife is consistent with the hypothesis that wildlife are a net sink rather than source of clinically relevant resistance. Wildlife that interact closely with humans, livestock, and both human and livestock waste within households, are exposed to more antimicrobial resistant phenotypes, and could therefore act as conduits for the dissemination of clinically relevant antimicrobial resistance to the wider environment. These results provide novel insight into the broader epidemiology of antimicrobial resistance in complex urban environments, characteristic of lower-middle-income countries. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council and CGIAR Research Program on Agriculture for Nutrition and Health.

Poor condition and infection: a vicious circle in natural populations.

Pathogens may be important for host population dynamics, as they can be a proximate cause of morbidity and mortality. Infection dynamics, in turn, may be dependent on the underlying condition of hosts. There is a clear potential for synergy between infection and condition: poor condition predisposes to host infections, which further reduce condition and so on. To provide empirical data that support this notion, we measured haematological indicators of infection (neutrophils and monocytes) and condition (red blood cells (RBCs) and lymphocytes) in field voles from three populations sampled monthly for 2 years. Mixed-effect models were developed to evaluate two hypotheses, (i) that individuals with low lymphocyte and/or RBC levels are more prone to show elevated haematological indicators of infection when re-sampled four weeks later, and (ii) that a decline in indicators of condition is likely to follow the development of monocytosis or neutrophilia. We found that individuals with low RBC and lymphocyte counts had increased probabilities of developing monocytosis and higher increments in neutrophils, and that high indices of infection (neutrophilia and monocytosis) were generally followed by a declining tendency in the indicators of condition (RBCs and lymphocytes). The vicious circle that these results describe suggests that while pathogens overall may be more important in wildlife dynamics than has previously been appreciated, specific pathogens are likely to play their part as elements of an interactive web rather than independent entities.

The dynamics of health in wild field vole populations: a haematological perspective.

1. Pathogens have been proposed as potentially important drivers of population dynamics, but while a few studies have investigated the impact of specific pathogens, the wealth of information provided by general indices of health has hardly been exploited. By evaluating haematological parameters in wild populations, our knowledge of the dynamics of health and infection may be better understood. 2. Here, haematological dynamics in natural populations of field voles are investigated to determine environmental and host factors associated with indicators of inflammatory response (counts of monocytes and neutrophils) and of condition: measures of immunological investment (lymphocyte counts) and aerobic capacity (red blood cell counts). 3. Individuals from three field vole populations were sampled monthly for 2 years. Comparisons with individuals kept under controlled conditions facilitated interpretation of field data. Mixed effects models were developed for each cell type to evaluate separately the effects of various factors on post-juvenile voles and mature breeding females. 4. There were three well-characterized 'physiological' seasons. The immunological investment appeared lowest in winter (lowest lymphocyte counts), but red blood cells were at their highest levels and indices of inflammatory response at their lowest. Spring was characterized by a fall in red blood cell counts and peaks in indicators of inflammatory response. During the course of summer-autumn, red blood cell counts recovered, the immunological investment increased and the indicators of inflammatory response decreased. 5. Poor body condition appeared to affect the inflammatory response (lower neutrophil and monocyte peaks) and the immunological investment (lower lymphocyte counts), providing evidence that the capacity to fight infection is dependent upon host condition. 6. Breeding early in the year was most likely in females in better condition (high lymphocyte and red blood cell counts). 7. All the haematological parameters were affected adversely by high population densities.

Cowpox virus infection in natural field vole Microtus agrestis populations: significant negative impacts on survival.

1. Cowpox virus is an endemic virus circulating in populations of wild rodents. It has been implicated as a potential cause of population cycles in field voles Microtus agrestis L., in Britain, owing to a delayed density-dependent pattern in prevalence, but its impact on field vole demographic parameters is unknown. This study tests the hypothesis that wild field voles infected with cowpox virus have a lower probability of survival than uninfected individuals. 2. The effect of cowpox virus infection on the probability of an individual surviving to the next month was investigated using longitudinal data collected over 2 years from four grassland sites in Kielder Forest, UK. This effect was also investigated at the population level, by examining whether infection prevalence explained temporal variation in survival rates, once other factors influencing survival had been controlled for. 3. Individuals with a probability of infection, P(I), of 1 at a time when base survival rate was at median levels had a 22.4% lower estimated probability of survival than uninfected individuals, whereas those with a P(I) of 0.5 had a 10.4% lower survival. 4. At the population level, survival rates also decreased with increasing cowpox prevalence, with lower survival rates in months of higher cowpox prevalence. 5. Simple matrix projection models with 28 day time steps and two stages, with 71% of voles experiencing cowpox infection in their second month of life (the average observed seroprevalence at the end of the breeding season) predict a reduction in 28-day population growth rate during the breeding season from lambda = 1.62 to 1.53 for populations with no cowpox infection compared with infected populations. 6. This negative correlation between cowpox virus infection and field vole survival, with its potentially significant effect on population growth rate, is the first for an endemic pathogen in a cyclic population of wild rodents.