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BACKGROUND: Early warning scores for neonatal mortality have not been designed for low income countries. We developed and validated a score to predict mortality upon admission to a NICU in Ethiopia. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective case-control study at the University of Gondar Hospital, Gondar, Ethiopia. Neonates hospitalized in the NICU between January 1, 2016 to June 31, 2017. Cases were neonates who died and controls were neonates who survived. RESULTS: Univariate logistic regression identified variables associated with mortality. The final model was developed with stepwise logistic regression. We created the Neonatal Mortality Score, which ranged from 0 to 52, from the model's coefficients. Bootstrap analysis internally validated the model. The discrimination and calibration were calculated. In the derivation dataset, there were 207 cases and 605 controls. Variables associated with mortality were admission level of consciousness, admission respiratory distress, gestational age, and birthweight. The AUC for neonatal mortality using these variables in aggregate was 0.88 (95% CI 0.85-0.91). The model achieved excellent discrimination (bias-corrected AUC) under internal validation. Using a cut-off of 12, the sensitivity and specificity of the Neonatal Mortality Score was 81 and 80%, respectively. The AUC for the Neonatal Mortality Score was 0.88 (95% CI 0.85-0.91), with similar bias-corrected AUC. In the validation dataset, there were 124 cases and 122 controls, the final model and the Neonatal Mortality Score had similar discrimination and calibration. CONCLUSIONS: We developed, internally validated, and externally validated a score that predicts neonatal mortality upon NICU admission with excellent discrimination and calibration.
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Mortalidad Infantil , Estudios de Casos y Controles , Etiopía/epidemiología , Femenino , Humanos , Lactante , Recién Nacido , Masculino , Embarazo , Pronóstico , Estudios RetrospectivosRESUMEN
Background: As wild poliovirus is eradicated and countries switch from oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) to inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) per World Health Organization recommendations, preventing circulation of vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV) is a top priority. Currently, the impact of prior poliovirus vaccination on OPV shedding is not fully understood. Methods: Stool samples from 2 populations were tested for OPV to assess shedding patterns. 505 samples from 43 US children vaccinated with OPV were collected over 42 days post-vaccination. 1,379 samples from 148 Mexican children vaccinated with OPV were collected over 71 days post-vaccination. Prior vaccination history was recorded for both groups. Results: Seventeen (40%) of the US children had never received poliovirus vaccination while the Mexican children had received at least 2 doses of IPV and 116 (78%) had OPV exposure. In total, 84% of US children and 78% of Mexican children shed OPV (P = .44, Fisher exact test), with a mean shedding duration of 17.4 days for US children and 9.3 days for Mexican children (P < .0001, Wilcoxon-Mann Whitney test). Conclusions: Prior vaccination did not affect the likelihood of shedding, as the US and Mexico cohorts had similar shedding proportions. However, prior vaccination affected shedding duration as the Mexican children, who were largely OPV exposed and all of whom had at least 2 IPV vaccinations, shed OPV for half as long as the US cohort. Since different countries maintain different poliovirus vaccination schedules, it is likely that duration of shedding of OPV varies in populations around the world.
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Poliomielitis/prevención & control , Vacuna Antipolio de Virus Inactivados/administración & dosificación , Vacuna Antipolio Oral/administración & dosificación , Poliovirus/inmunología , Vacunación , Heces/virología , Humanos , Lactante , México , Poliomielitis/inmunología , Poliomielitis/virología , Estados Unidos , Esparcimiento de VirusRESUMEN
Background: Currently, the primary mechanism for poliovirus detection is acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) surveillance, with environmental sampling serving as a complement. However, as AFP cases drop, environmental surveillance will become increasingly critical for poliovirus detection. Mexico provides a natural environment to study oral polio vaccine (OPV) transmission, as it provides routine injected polio vaccine immunization and biannual OPV campaigns in February and May. Methods: As part of a study of OPV transmission in which 155 children were vaccinated with OPV, monthly sewage samples were collected from rivers leading from 3 indigenous Mexican villages (Capoluca, Campo Grande, and Tuxpanguillo) from February to May 2015. Samples were also collected from October 2015 to October 2017, during which time there were standard OPV campaigns. Samples were analyzed for the presence of OPV serotypes, using a real-time qualitative polymerase chain reaction assay capable of detecting as few as 9, 12, and 10 copies/100 µL of viral ribonucleic acid for OPV serotypes 1, 2, and 3 (OPV-1, -2, and -3), respectively. Included here are 54 samples, taken up to November 2016. Results: Of the 54 samples, 13 (24%) were positive for OPV. After the vaccination of 155 children in February 2015, OPV was found 2 months after vaccination. After unrestricted OPV administration in February 2016, OPV was detected in sewage up to 8 months after vaccination. OPV-3 was found in 11 of the 13 positive samples (85%), OPV-2 was found in 3 positive samples (23%), and OPV-1 was found in 1 sample (8%). Conclusions: OPV can be detected even when small amounts of the vaccine are introduced into a community, as shown by OPV-positive sewage samples even when only 155 children were vaccinated. When OPV vaccination was unrestricted, sewage samples were positive up to 8 months after vaccination, implying community OPV circulation for at least 8 months. OPV-3 was the serotype most found in these samples, indicating prolonged transmission of OPV-3 when compared to the other serotypes. Future work could compare the phylogenetic variance of OPV isolates from sewage after OPV vaccinations.
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Monitoreo del Ambiente , Reacción en Cadena de la Polimerasa Multiplex/métodos , Poliomielitis/transmisión , Vacuna Antipolio Oral , Poliovirus/aislamiento & purificación , Vacunación , Humanos , México , Poliomielitis/inmunología , Poliomielitis/virología , Poliovirus/genética , Poliovirus/inmunología , Reacción en Cadena en Tiempo Real de la Polimerasa/métodos , Ríos/virología , Sensibilidad y Especificidad , Serogrupo , Aguas del Alcantarillado/virología , Esparcimiento de VirusRESUMEN
Background: The World Health Assembly 2012 Polio Eradication and Endgame Strategic Plan calls for the eventual cessation of all oral polio vaccines (OPVs), to be replaced with inactivated polio vaccine (IPV); however, IPV induces less robust mucosal immunity than OPV. This study characterized household and community OPV shedding and transmission after OPV vaccination within primarily IPV-vaccinated communities. Methods: Households in 3 IPV-vaccinated Mexican communities were randomized to receive 3 levels of OPV vaccination coverage (70%, 30%, or 10%). Ten stool samples were collected from all household members over 71 days. Analysis compared vaccinated subjects, household contacts of vaccinated subjects, and subjects in unvaccinated households. Logistic and Cox regression models were fitted to characterize transmission of OPV by coverage and household vaccination status. Results: Among 148 vaccinated children, 380 household contacts, and 1124 unvaccinated community contacts, 78%, 18%, and 7%, respectively, shed OPV. Community and household contacts showed no differences in transmission (odds ratio [OR], 0.67; 95% confidence interval [CI], .37-1.20), in shedding trajectory (OR, 0.61; 95% CI, .35-1.07), or in time to shedding (hazard ratio, 0.68; 95% CI, .39-1.19). Transmission began as quickly as 1 day after vaccination and persisted as long as 71 days after vaccination. Transmission within unvaccinated households differed significantly across vaccination coverage communities, with the 70% community experiencing the most transmissions (15%), and the 10% community experiencing the least (4%). These trends persisted over time and in the time to first shedding analyses. Conclusions: Transmission did not differ between household contacts of vaccinees and unvaccinated households. Understanding poliovirus transmission dynamics is important for postcertification control.
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Poliomielitis/prevención & control , Vacuna Antipolio de Virus Inactivados/administración & dosificación , Vacuna Antipolio Oral/administración & dosificación , Poliovirus/inmunología , Cobertura de Vacunación , Vacunación , Adolescente , Adulto , Niño , Preescolar , Monitoreo Epidemiológico , Composición Familiar , Femenino , Humanos , Lactante , Estudios Longitudinales , Masculino , México/epidemiología , Poliomielitis/epidemiología , Poliomielitis/transmisión , Poliomielitis/virología , Poliovirus/fisiología , Esparcimiento de VirusRESUMEN
Objectives: Assess the acceptability of and self-reported behavioral change from participation in a sexual assault prevention intervention on a U.S. university campus. Participants: Thirty-one undergraduate students who identified as women and opted-in to participating in both the intervention and research. Methods: In-depth interviews and written reflections were collected. Analysis was thematic with three investigators coding and reaching consensus. Results: The EAAA program was well-liked by most participants, with positive behavior changes reported. Five key themes reflecting strengths of EAAA were identified, including improved verbal communication, reduced sexual assault myths, empowerment, recognizing and responding to danger cues, and learning about healthy sexuality. Three key themes reflecting challenges were identified, including time commitment, use of outdated program materials, and a single gender focus. Conclusions: EAAA translates well, with a few adaptations, to a residential campus environment in the U.S. Research is needed to assess program effectiveness in reducing sexual assault.
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BACKGROUND: HIV remains a leading cause of death for adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) in sub-Saharan Africa. This population has a high incidence of HIV and other comorbidities, such as experiencing violence, and low antiretroviral therapy (ART) adherence. To reach global HIV goals, data are needed on the specific adherence barriers for AGYW living with HIV, so interventions can be targeted effectively. METHODS: Cross-sectional data were collected at urban and rural health facilities in and around Kisumu County, western Kenya, from January to June 2022, from AGYW 15-24 years of age who were living with HIV. Surveys included questions on intimate partner violence, mental health issues, food security, and orphanhood. Adherence was categorized using viral load testing where available and the Center for Adherence Support Evaluation (CASE) adherence index otherwise. Logistic regression was used to assess associations between potential explanatory variables and adherence. FINDINGS: In total, 309 AGYW participated. AGYW with experiences of emotional violence (Odds Ratio [OR] = 1.94, 95% Confidence Interval [CI] = 1.03-3.66), moderate or severe depression (OR = 3.19, 95% CI = 1.47-6.94), and/or substance use (OR = 2.71, 95% CI = 1.24-5.92) had significantly higher odds of poor adherence when compared to AGYW without these respective experiences. Physical and sexual violence, food insecurity, and orphanhood were not associated with poor adherence in this cohort. INTERPRETATION: Elucidating the risk factors associated with poor adherence among AGYW living with HIV allows us to identify potential targets for future interventions to improve ART adherence and HIV care outcomes. Mental health and violence prevention interventions, including combination interventions, may prove to be promising approaches.
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Infecciones por VIH , Delitos Sexuales , Humanos , Femenino , Adolescente , Estudios Transversales , Kenia/epidemiología , Infecciones por VIH/tratamiento farmacológico , Infecciones por VIH/epidemiología , Infecciones por VIH/prevención & control , Factores de Riesgo , AntirretroviralesRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has a long history of conflict and ongoing local instability; the eastern provinces, including South Kivu, have been especially affected. Health systems and livelihoods have been undermined, contributing to massive inequities in access to health services and high rates of internal displacement. Asili, an innovative social enterprise program, aimed to provide essential community services and improve the health of under-five children in two South Kivu communities, Mudaka and Panzi, via provision of small-format, franchisable health clinics and clean water services. METHODS: We evaluated utilization and acceptance of Asili services in two study sites, Mudaka and Panzi. Data collected included questions on housing conditions, food security, and at follow up, Asili membership and use, satisfaction with services, and recommendations for improvement. Structured pre- and post-interviews with primary caregivers of families with under-five children were the primary source of data with additional community input collected through focus group discussions. RESULTS: At baseline, we enrolled 843 households in Mudaka and 890 in Panzi. Market segmentation analysis illuminated service usage patterns, showing Asili services were well received overall in both Mudaka and Panzi. Families reporting higher levels of proxy measures of socioeconomic status (SES), such as electricity, land ownership, and education, were more likely to use Asili services, findings that were further supported by focus group discussions among community members. CONCLUSIONS: Rebuilding health infrastructure in post-conflict settings, especially those that continue to be conflict-affected and very low SES, is a challenging prospect. Focus group results for this study highlighted the positive community response to Asili, while also underscoring challenges related to cost of services. Programs may need, in particular, to have different levels of costs for different SES groups. Additionally, longer follow-up periods and increased stability may be needed to assess the potential of social enterprise interventions such as Asili to improve health outcomes, especially in children. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Institutional Review Board approval for this study was obtained at Stanford University (IRB 35216) and the University of Kinshasa, DRC. Further, this study has been registered on Clinicaltrials.gov (record NCT03536286), retrospectively registered as of 4/23/2018.
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Women in South Asia face the highest lifetime prevalence of intimate partner violence in the world, which is just one form of violence against women (VAW). In India, few women seek help after experiencing violence, particularly from formal resources, such as physicians or the police. While many studies have investigated the impact of survivor characteristics and patterns of violence on help-seeking behaviors, there is scant research on support service characteristics and their impact on help-seeking. The introduction of a novel crisis helpline in Gujarat, India provided an opportunity to better understand how successful help-seeking can be driven by the perceived and experienced characteristics of the helpline. We conducted in-depth interviews with helpline users to identify factors and pathways that promoted or discouraged help-seeking in general, help-seeking from a formal source, and help-seeking from this particular helpline. We analyzed 32 interviews of women who used the helpline. Participants were from eight districts across the state, representing a diverse range of sociodemographic backgrounds. After conducting a thematic analysis, we found that action-oriented service, timeliness, and women-focused staff influenced (positively and negatively) participants' feelings of safety, empowerment, and trust in the helpline, which ultimately impacted their decision to seek help from the helpline or even to seek help at all. This study illuminates how service characteristics, in and of themselves, can influence the likelihood that survivors will seek help, emphasizing the need for survivors to have a voice in the growth and refinement of VAW support services. Consequently, these areas must be a focus of future research and initiatives to improve help-seeking by VAW survivors.
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Conducta de Búsqueda de Ayuda , Violencia de Pareja , Femenino , Humanos , Policia , Prevalencia , Sobrevivientes , ViolenciaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Social franchising programs in low- and middle-income countries have tried using the standard wealth index, based on the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) questionnaire, in client exit interviews to assess clients' relative wealth compared with the national wealth distribution to ensure equity in service delivery. The large number of survey questions required to capture the wealth index variables have proved cumbersome for programs. METHODS: Using an adaptation of the Delphi method, we developed shortened wealth indices and in February 2015 consulted 15 stakeholders in equity measurement. Together, we selected the best of 5 alternative indices, accompanied by 2 measures of agreement (percent agreement and Cohen's kappa statistic) comparing wealth quintile assignment in the new indices to the full DHS index. The panel agreed that reducing the number of assets was more important than standardization across countries because a short index would provide strong indication of client wealth and be easier to collect and use in the field. Additionally, the panel agreed that the simplified index should be highly correlated with the DHS for each country (kappa ≥ 0.75) for both national and urban-specific samples. We then revised indices for 16 countries and selected the minimum number of questions and question options required to achieve a kappa statistic ≥ 0.75 for both national and urban populations. FINDINGS: After combining the 5 wealth quintiles into 3 groups, which the expert panel deemed more programmatically meaningful, reliability between the standard DHS wealth index and each of 3 simplified indices was high (median kappaâ=â0.81, 086, and 0.77, respectively, for index B that included only the common questions from the DHS VI questionnaire, index D that included the common questions plus country-specific questions, and index E that found the shortest list of common and country-specific questions that met the minimum reliability criteria of kappa ≥ 0.75). Index E was the simplified index of choice because it was reliable in national and urban contexts while requiring the fewest number of survey questions-6 to 18 per country compared with 25 to 47 in the original DHS wealth index (a 66% average reduction). CONCLUSION: Social franchise clinics and other types of service delivery programs that want to assess client wealth in relation to a national or urban population can do so with high reliability using a short questionnaire. Future uses of the simplified asset questionnaire include a mobile application for rapid data collection and analysis.