The Sydney triage to admission risk tool (START) to improve patient flow in an emergency department: a model of care implementation pilot study.

BACKGROUND: The Sydney Triage to Admission Risk Tool (START) is a validated clinical analytics tool designed to estimate the probability of in-patient admission based on Emergency Department triage characteristics. METHODS: This was a single centre pilot implementation study using a matched case control sample of patients assessed at ED triage. Patients in the intervention group were identified at triage by the START tool as likely requiring in-patient admission and briefly assessed by an ED Consultant. Bed management were notified of these patients and their likely admitting team based on senior early assessment. Matched controls were identified on the same day of presentation if they were admitted to the same in-patient teams as patients in the intervention group and same START score category. Outcomes were ED length of stay and proportion of patients correctly classified as an in-patient admission by the START tool. RESULTS: One hundred and thirteen patients were assessed using the START-based model of care. When compared with matched control patients, this intervention model of care was associated with a significant reduction in ED length of stay [301 min (IQR 225-397) versus 423 min (IQR 297-587) p < 0.001] and proportion of patients meeting 4 h length of stay thresholds increased from 24 to 45% (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: In this small pilot implementation study, the START tool, when used in conjunction with senior early assessment was associated with a reduction in ED length of stay. Further controlled studies are now underway to further examine its utility across other ED settings.

Presentations to NSW emergency departments with self-harm, suicidal ideation, or intentional poisoning, 2010-2014.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate population trends in presentations for mental health problems presenting to emergency departments (EDs) in New South Wales during 2010-2014, particularly patients presenting with suicidal ideation, self-harm, or intentional poisoning. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: This was a retrospective, descriptive analysis of linked Emergency Department Data Collection registry data for presentations to NSW public hospital EDs over five calendar years, 2010-2014. Patients were included if they had presented to an ED and a mental health-related diagnosis was recorded as the principal diagnosis. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Rates of mental health-related presentations to EDs by age group and calendar year, both overall and for the subgroups of self-harm, suicidal ideation and behaviour, and intentional poisoning presentations. RESULTS: 331 493 mental health-related presentations to 115 NSW EDs during 2010-2014 were analysed. The presentation rate was highest for 15-19-year-old patients (2014: 2167 per 100 000 population), but had grown most rapidly for 10-14-year-old children (13.8% per year). The combined number of presentations for suicidal ideation, self-harm, or intentional poisoning increased in all age groups, other than those aged 0-9 years; the greatest increase was for the 10-19-year-old age group (27% per year). CONCLUSIONS: The rate of mental health presentations to EDs increased significantly in NSW between 2010 and 2014, particularly presentations by adolescents. Urgent action is needed to provide better access to adolescent mental health services in the community and to enhance ED models of mental health care. The underlying drivers of this trend should be investigated to improve mental health care.

Extending the Sydney Triage to Admission Risk Tool (START+) to predict discharges and short stay admissions.

OBJECTIVE: This study aims to validate previously reported triage tool titled Sydney Triage to Admission Risk Tool (START+) and investigate whether an extended version of the tool could be used to identify and stream appropriate short stay admissions to ED observation units or specialised short stay inpatient wards. METHODS: This was a prospective study at two metropolitan EDs in Sydney, Australia. Consecutive triage encounters were observed by a trained researcher and START scores calculated. The primary outcome was length of stay <48 hours. Multivariable logistic regression was used to estimate area under curve of receiver operator characteristic (AUROC) for START scores. The original START tool was then extended to include frailty and multiple or major comorbidities as additional variables to assess for further predictive accuracy. RESULTS: There were 894 patients analysed during the study period. Of the 894 patients, there were 732 patients who were either discharged from ED or admitted for <2 days. The AUROC for the original START+ tool was 0.80 (95% CI 0.77 to 0.83). The presence of frailty was found to add a further five points and multiple comorbidities added another four points on top of the START score, and the AUROC for the extended START score 0.84 (95% CI 0.81 to 0.88). CONCLUSION: The overall performance of the extended ED disposition prediction tool that included frailty and multiple medical comorbidities significantly improved the ability of the START tool to identify patients likely to be discharged from ED or require short stay admission <2 days. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ACTRN12618000426280.

Major trauma mortality in rural and metropolitan NSW, 2009-2014: a retrospective analysis of trauma registry data.

OBJECTIVE: To determine trends in crude and risk-adjusted mortality for major trauma patients injured in rural or metropolitan New South Wales, 2009-2014. DESIGN: A retrospective analysis of NSW statewide trauma registry data. PARTICIPANTS: Adult patients (aged 16 years or more) who presented with major trauma (Injury Severity Scores greater than 15) to a NSW hospital during 2009-2014. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The main covariate of interest was geographic location of injury (metropolitan v rural/regional areas). Inpatient mortality was analysed by multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: Data for 11 423 eligible patients were analysed. Inpatient mortality for those injured in metropolitan locations was 14.7% in 2009 and 16.1% in 2014 (P = 0.45). In rural locations, there was a statistically significant decline in in-hospital mortality over the study period, from 12.1% in 2009 to 8.7% in 2014 (P = 0.004). Risk-adjusted mortality for those injured in a rural location was lower in 2013 than during 2009, but remained stable for those injured in metropolitan locations. CONCLUSION: Crude and risk-adjusted mortality after major trauma have remained stable in those injured in metropolitan areas of NSW between 2009 and 2014. The apparent downward trend in mortality associated with severe trauma in rural/regional locations requires further analysis.

Demand for Emergency Services Trends in New South Wales Years 2010-2014 (DESTINY): Age and Clinical Factors Associated with Ambulance Transportation to Emergency Departments.

OBJECTIVES: The study aimed to analyze ambulance transportations to Emergency Departments (EDs) in New South Wales (NSW) and to identify temporal changes in demographics, acuity, and clinical diagnoses. METHODS: This was a retrospective analysis of a population based registry of ED presentations in New South Wales. The NSW Emergency Department data collection (EDCC) collects patient level data on presentations to designated EDs across NSW. Patients that presented to EDs by ambulance between January 2010 and December 2014 were included. Patients dead on arrival, transferred from another hospital, or planned ED presentations were excluded. RESULTS: A total of 10.8 million ED attendances were identified of which 2.6 million (23%) were transported to ED by ambulance. The crude rate of ambulance transportations to EDs across all ages increased by 3.0% per annum over the five years with the highest rate observed in those 85 years and over (620.5 presentations per 1,000 population). There was an increase in the proportion of category 1 and 2 (life-threatening or potentially life-threatening) cases from 18.1% to 24.0%. CONCLUSION: Demand for ambulance services appears to be driven by older patients presenting with higher acuity problems. Alternative models of acute care for elderly patients need to be planned and implemented to address these changes.

The Sydney Triage to Admission Risk Tool (START) to predict Emergency Department Disposition: A derivation and internal validation study using retrospective state-wide data from New South Wales, Australia.

BACKGROUND: Disposition decisions are critical to the functioning of Emergency Departments. The objectives of the present study were to derive and internally validate a prediction model for inpatient admission from the Emergency Department to assist with triage, patient flow and clinical decision making. METHODS: This was a retrospective analysis of State-wide Emergency Department data in New South Wales, Australia. Adult patients (age ≥ 16 years) were included if they presented to a Level five or six (tertiary level) Emergency Department in New South Wales, Australia between 2013 and 2014. The outcome of interest was in-patient admission from the Emergency Department. This included all admissions to short stay and medical assessment units and being transferred out to another hospital. Analyses were performed using logistic regression. Discrimination was assessed using area under curve and derived risk scores were plotted to assess calibration. RESULTS: 1,721,294 presentations from twenty three Level five or six hospitals were analysed. Of these 49.38% were male and the mean (sd) age was 49.85 years (22.13). Level 6 hospitals accounted for 47.70% of cases and 40.74% of cases were classified as an in-patient admission based on their mode of separation. The final multivariable model including age, arrival by ambulance, triage category, previous admission and presenting problem had an AUC of 0.82 (95% CI 0.81, 0.82). CONCLUSION: By deriving and internally validating a risk score model to predict the need for in-patient admission based on basic demographic and triage characteristics, patient flow in ED, clinical decision making and overall quality of care may be improved. Further studies are now required to establish clinical effectiveness of this risk score model.

Incremental cost-effectiveness of trauma service improvements for road trauma casualties: experience of an Australian major trauma centre.

Objective The aim of the present study was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of trauma service funding enhancements at an inner city major trauma centre. Methods The present study was a cost-effectiveness analysis using retrospective trauma registry data of all major trauma patients (injury severity score >15) presenting after road trauma between 2001 and 2012. The primary outcome was cost per life year gained associated with the intervention period (2007-12) compared with the pre-intervention period (2001-06). Incremental costs were represented by all trauma-related funding enhancements undertaken between 2007 and 2010. Risk adjustment for years of life lost was conducted using zero-inflated negative binomial regression modelling. All costs were expressed in 2012 Australian dollar values. Results In all, 876 patients were identified during the study period. The incremental cost of trauma enhancements between 2007 and 2012 totalled $7.91million, of which $2.86million (36%) was attributable to road trauma patients. After adjustment for important covariates, the odds of in-hospital mortality reduced by around half (adjusted odds ratio (OR) 0.48; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.27, 0.82; P=0.01). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was A$7600 per life year gained (95% CI A$5524, $19333). Conclusion Trauma service funding enhancements that enabled a quality improvement program at a single major trauma centre were found to be cost-effective based on current international and Australian standards. What is known about this topic? Trauma quality improvement programs have been implemented across most designated trauma hospitals in an effort to improve hospital care processes and outcomes for injured patients. These involve a combination of education and training, the use of audit and key performance indicators. What does this paper add? A trauma quality improvement program initiated at an Australian Major Trauma Centre was found to be cost-effective over 12 years with respect to years of life saved in road trauma patients. What are the implications for practitioners? The results suggest that adequate resourcing of trauma centres to enable quality improvement programs may be a cost-effective measure to reduce in-hospital mortality following road trauma.

Pregnancy outcomes before and after institution of a specialised twins clinic: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Although specialised clinics for multiple pregnancies are recommended by several Obstetrics and Gynaecology governing bodies, studies examining outcome before and after introduction of such clinics remain few, were performed predominantly in North America in the 1990s, and either amongst dichorionic twin pregnancies only or where chorionicity was not specified. Our objective, in the modern setting with twins of known chorionicity, was to compare maternal and neonatal outcomes of twin pregnancies before and after commencement of a consultant-led, multidisciplinary twins clinic (TC). METHODS: Retrospective cohort study of 513 women, with birth of twins at ≥20 weeks' gestation, January 2007 to November 2011, at a metropolitan tertiary maternity hospital, Sydney, Australia. Demographic, pregnancy, and outcome data were obtained from hospital databases. Women receiving TC care (2009-2011) were compared to those receiving general antenatal clinic (ANC) care (2007-2010) and private care (2009-2011). Other models of care were excluded. Main outcome measures were total maternal inpatient stay, mode of birth, gestational age at birth, and neonatal nursery admission. RESULTS: 286 women were included in the main analyses: 84 attended ANC, 101 TC, and 101 a private obstetrician. TC women had similar demographics to ANC women and were slightly younger than private patients. TC women had lower Caesarean section rates (55% vs. 70% ANC and 76% private, p = 0.008) and fewer late preterm (34 + 0-36 + 6 weeks) births, (26%TC vs. 44% ANC and 41% private, p < 0.001). Median maternal inpatient stay was shorter in TC than ANC (7 vs. 8 days, p = 0.009) and similar to private (7 days). Nursery admission rates were higher in private patients (67% vs. 49% ANC and 47% TC, p = 0.001) and average birthweight lower (2283 g vs. 2501 g ANC and 2496 g TC, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Within a single centre, maternal and neonatal twin pregnancy outcomes varied significantly by model of care. Introducing a specialised twins clinic in our setting decreased Caesarean section rates, late preterm birth, and inpatient stay compared to ANC.

Age before acuity: the drivers of demand for emergency department services in the Greater Sydney Area.

OBJECTIVE: To contrast long-term population-based trends in general practice (GP) presentations and acute inpatient admissions from the emergency department (ED) in the elderly population within the Greater Sydney Area. METHODS: This was a retrospective analysis of population-based ED presentation data over 11 years, between January 2001 and December 2011, conducted within the Greater Sydney Area in Australia. De-identified data were obtained from the New South Wales Emergency Department Data Collection database on all patients presenting to 30 public hospital EDs located within the Greater Sydney Area. The outcomes of interest were GP presentations to ED (triage category 4 or 5, self-referred and discharged from ED) and of acute inpatient admissions from ED per 1000 population. RESULTS: Over 11 million presentations were identified. Around 40% of presentations were classified as a GP presentation and 23% were classified as acute inpatient admissions. There was a 2.9% per annum increase in acute inpatient admissions per 1000 population in those ≥80 years of age and no appreciable change in other age groups. Rates of GP presentations were higher in those <65 years of age. GP presentations increased 1.9% per annum in those aged <65 years of age. CONCLUSIONS: The increase in ED demand appears to be driven by the elderly presenting with acute problems requiring inpatient admission. There has been a modest increase in the rate of GP presentations to ED.

Real time shift reporting by emergency physicians predicts overall ED performance.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate factors associated with emergency physician perception of the shift and to determine whether these perceptions were predictors of overall daily emergency department (ED) performance indicators. METHODS: This was an observational study conducted at an inner city ED in New South Wales. Shift reports completed by the emergency physician in charge at clinical handover times between February and July 2012 were included. Variables collected by the shift report included (1) total number of patients in ED, (2) number of patients in the ED with length of stay (LOS) greater than 4 h, (3) number of admitted patients, (4) number of patients waiting to be seen by a doctor and (5) medical staffing levels. Outcomes of interest for this study were shift perception scores (1=very poor to 5=very good) and daily ED performance measures. Performance measures were the proportion of patients admitted or discharged from ED within 4 h (National Emergency Access Target, NEAT) and the percentage of inpatient admissions leaving ED within 8 h of ED arrival time. RESULTS: The number of patients in ED with LOS >4 h (OR 0.83, 95% CI 0.79 to 0.87, p value <0.001) and number of patients waiting to be seen (OR 0.92, 95% CI 0.88 to 0.95, p value <0.001) were the factors most strongly associated with shift perception score. After adjustment, the mean NEAT performance improved 6% for each incremental increase in average shift perception score (ß=0.06 95% CI 0.04 to 0.07, p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Shift reports and shift perceptions by emergency physicians may be used to predict overall ED performance.

Deriving a prediction rule for short stay admission in trauma patients admitted at a major trauma centre in Australia.

INTRODUCTION: The aim of this study was to derive and internally validate a prediction rule for short stay admissions (SSAs) in trauma patients admitted to a major trauma centre. METHODS: A retrospective study of all trauma activation patients requiring inpatient admission at a single inner city major trauma centre in Australia between 2007 and 2011 was conducted. Logistic regression was used to derive a multivariable model for the outcome of SSA (length of stay ≤2 days excluding deaths or intensive care unit admission). Model discrimination was tested using area under receiver operator characteristic curve analyses and calibration was tested using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test statistic. Validation was performed by splitting the dataset into derivation and validation datasets and further tested using bootstrap cross validation. RESULTS: A total of 2593 patients were studied and 30% were classified as SSAs. Important independent predictors of SSA were injury severity score ≤8 (OR 7.8; 95% CI 5.0 to 11.9), Glasgow coma score 14-15 (OR 3.2; 95% CI 1.8 to 5.4), no need for operative intervention (OR 2.2; 95% CI 1.6 to 3.2) and age < 65 years. (OR 1.7; 95% CI 1.2 to 2.6). The overall model had an area under receiver operator characteristic curve of 0.84 (95% CI 0.82 to 0.87) for the derivation dataset. After bootstrap cross validation the area under the curve of the final model was 0.83 (95% CI 0.81 to 0.84). CONCLUSIONS: We report a prediction rule that could be used to establish admission criteria for a trauma short stay unit. Further studies are required to prospectively validate the prediction rule.

The impact of alcohol intoxication in patients admitted due to assault at an Australian major trauma centre: a trauma registry study from 1999 to 2009.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the long term trend in assault admissions at an inner city major trauma centre and determine the association between clinical evidence of alcohol intoxication and major trauma due to assault. METHODS: Adult trauma patients admitted due to assault between 1999 and 2009 were identified through the hospital based trauma registry at an inner city major trauma centre in Sydney. Demographic data, incident details, clinical evidence of alcohol intoxication, injury severity scores and injury related outcomes were collected. Population based incidences were calculated and outcomes compared between intoxicated and non-intoxicated patients. Major trauma was defined as a composite outcome of severe injury (injury severity score>15), intensive care admission or in-hospital mortality. RESULTS: There were 2380 patients analysed. Clinical evidence of alcohol intoxication was documented in 12% (287/2380) of cases. There was a marked peak in incidence of hospital admissions due to assault which occurred between 2000 and 2002. Overall, the rate of hospital admissions due to assault decreased during the study period (incident rate ratios 0.94, 95% CI 0.90 to 0.99, p<0.001). The odds of major trauma were three times higher in patients with clinical evidence of intoxication compared to those that did not (adjusted OR 2.9, 95% CI 2.1 to 4.0, p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: There was a peak in hospital admissions due to inner city assault around 2000-2002 associated with an overall decline in hospital admissions at this trauma centre over 10 years. Clinical evidence of alcohol intoxication in patients admitted for assault appears to be associated with more severe injury, including severe head injury.

Clinical and longitudinal patterns of frequent presenters to emergency departments: A multi-centre data linkage analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To describe clinical characteristics and longitudinal patterns of representation in a cohort of patients who frequently present to EDs for care. METHODS: A retrospective data analysis linking routinely collected ED data across three hospitals. The study population consisted of patients who presented to any ED on 10 or more occasions in any continuous 365-day period from 1 July 2015 to 30 June 2021. Presenting complaints were divided into those with any mental health, drug and alcohol, or social presentations (MHDAS group) and those without (non-MHDAS group). Outcomes of interest were number of presentations as well as temporal and facility clustering of presentations. A per patient regression analysis was performed to identify independent risk factors for increased presentations. RESULTS: Presentations by 1640 frequent ED presenters in the study constituted 4.6% of total ED presentations. MHDAS study group were younger, predominantly English speaking, twice as likely to be married, had lower hospital admission rates and almost three times as many of them did not wait for treatment. Statistically significant differences were also found between these groups regarding presentation clustering, facility entropy, each of the four categories of the number of ED presentations, and Index of Relative Socio-Economic Advantage and Disadvantage. CONCLUSION: Representations associated with MHDAS have a different trajectory of representation episodes compared to non-MHDAS group. Escalating number of presentations and clustering are important predictors of future representation numbers. Those 'did not waits' who appear to be representing would be the highest risk of ongoing and persistent representations in the future and should be the target of early interventions to ensure they are accessing appropriate care before this happens.

Use of computed tomography in the setting of a tiered trauma team activation system in Australia.

This study aims to describe the patterns in the use of computed tomography (CT) imaging in the setting of a two-tiered trauma team activation system without a mandatory whole-body ("panscan") trauma CT protocol. A prospective study was conducted at a single inner city major trauma centre in Sydney, Australia. Adult patients presenting to the emergency department requiring a trauma team activation were studied over 1 year. Patients in the trauma consult group met predetermined criteria for mechanism of injury without vital sign abnormalities or clinical evidence of major injury. Full trauma team response patients were those who had abnormal predetermined vital signs or evidence of major injury on initial assessment. The outcomes measured were severe injury, multiregion injury and positive CT scans. Of the patients, 1,058 were studied of whom 63 % had at least one CT scan performed. The most common CT studies were CT brain in combination with cervical spines (23 %) and isolated abdominal CT scans (17 %). The full trauma response group was associated with significantly higher rates of severe injury (34 versus 8 %, p<0.001), multiregion injury (13 versus 3 %, p<0.001), need for operative intervention (37 versus 15 %, p<0.001) and in-hospital mortality (4 versus 0.7 %, p<0.001). This group was also associated with significantly higher odds of whole-body CT use [odds ratio (OR) 5.6, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 3.6-8.8, p<0.001] and higher odds of positive CT brain studies compared to the trauma consult group (OR 2.6, 95 % CI 1.7-4.1, p<0.001). A tiered trauma team activation criteria in combination with trauma team assessment may be used to triage patients requiring CT without the need for mandatory CT protocols based on mechanism alone.

24 hours - Life in the E.R.: A state-wide data linkage analysis of in-patients with prolonged emergency department length of stay in New South Wales, Australia.

OBJECTIVE: Describe the characteristics and predictors of mortality for patients who spend more than 24 h in the ED waiting for an in-patient bed and compare baseline clinical and demographic characteristics between tertiary and non-tertiary hospitals. METHODS: This was a state-wide analysis data linkage analysis of adult (age >16 years) ED presentations across New South Wales from 2019 to 2020. Cases were included if their mode of separation from ED indicated admission to an in-patient unit including critical care ward and their ED length of stay was greater than or equal to 24 h. Cases were categorised by service-related groups based on principle diagnosis. RESULTS: A total of 26 854 eligible cases were identified. The most common diagnosis groups were psychiatry, cardiology and respiratory. The odds ratio (OR) for 30-day all-cause mortality in admitted patients with an ED length of stay greater than 24 h were highest in those aged >75 years (OR 15.18, 95% confidence interval [CI] 9.99-23.07, P < 0.001), oncology (OR 10.45, 95% CI 7.93-13.77, P < 0.001) and haematology patients (OR 2.95, 95% CI 2.01-4.33, P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Interventions and models of care to address ED access block need to focus on mental health patients, older patients particularly those with cardiorespiratory illness and oncology and haematology patients for whom risk of mortality is disproportionately higher.

Does volume or occupancy influence emergency access block? A multivariate time series analysis from a single emergency department in Sydney, Australia during the COVID-19 pandemic.

OBJECTIVE: The study aims to determine whether ED presentation volume or hospital occupancy had a greater impact on ED performance before and during the COVID-19 health response at a tertiary referral hospital in Sydney, Australia. METHODS: Single centre time series analysis using routinely collected hospital and ED data from January 2019 to September 2020. The primary outcome was ED access block measured by emergency treatment performance (ETP; i.e. percentage of patients who were discharged or transferred to a ward from ED within 4 h of ED arrival time). Secondary outcomes were hospital occupancy, elective theatre cases and ambulance ramping. Multivariate time series analysis was performed using vector autoregression, to model effects of changes in various endogenous and correlated variables on ETP. RESULTS: There was an increase in ETP, drop in ED presentations and decrease in hospital occupancy between April and June 2020. Elective surgery and hospital occupancy had significant effects up to 2 days prior on ETP, while there were no significant effects of either ED or ambulance presentations on ETP. Hospital occupancy itself increased with ED presentations after 2-4 days and decreased with elective surgery after 1 day. Shocks (a one standard deviation increase) in hospital occupancy had a peak impact nearly two times greater compared to ED presentations (-1.43, 95% confidence interval -1.92, -0.93 vs -0.73, 95% confidence interval -1.21, -0.25). CONCLUSION: The main determinants of the reduction of ED overcrowding and access block during the pandemic were associated with reductions in hospital occupancy and elective surgery levels, and more research is required to assess more complex associations beyond the scope of this manuscript.

Incidence and outcomes of aortic dissection for emergency departments in New South Wales, Australia 2017-2018: A data linkage study.

OBJECTIVE: The aims of the present study were to describe the age-specific incidence and 30-day mortality of aortic dissection patients presenting to the EDs in New South Wales (NSW). METHODS: This was a data linkage study involving emergency, inpatient and death registry administrative data from NSW. RESULTS: The present study found 273 instances of aortic dissection in NSW from July 2017 to July 2018. Calculated incidence was 3.47 per 100 000. Incidence increased exponentially with age. The 30-day mortality rate among this cohort was 35.53% (n = 97). Mortality was significantly associated with age and pre-existing comorbidity burden, but was not associated with gender, level of hospital or time of presentation. CONCLUSIONS: The present study found the incidence of aortic dissection within the NSW population to be 3.4 per 100 000. The incidence of aortic dissection in our population increased from 8.6 per 100 000 for people aged between 60 and 80 years to 32 per 100 000 for those aged over 80 years.

Predictors and in-hospital mortality associated with prolonged emergency department length of stay in New South Wales tertiary hospitals from 2017 to 2018.

OBJECTIVE: To determine specific patient, clinical and service factors associated with increased ED length of stay and investigate whether prolonged ED length of stay, as measured by emergency treatment performance (ETP) non-compliance, is an independent predictor of all cause 30-day mortality for patients presenting to, and admitted from ED. METHODS: This was a retrospective analysis of linked state-wide emergency, inpatient and death data from New South Wales. All patients who presented to a tertiary level public hospital (level 5 or 6) ED and admitted to an in-patient unit were included. Outcomes were the proportion of admitted patients who met ETP targets, and 30-day all-cause mortality. RESULTS: A total of 697 600 eligible cases were identified and analysed. The odds of meeting ETP benchmarks were 62% lower in those with complex or multiple medical comorbidities (odds ratio 0.38, 95% confidence interval 0.37-0.40, P < 0.001) compared with patients with no medical comorbidities. Admission under psychiatry, surgical and oncology service-related groups were associated with decreased ETP. The hazard ratio for 30-day all-cause mortality over time was 28% higher in those not meeting ETP benchmarks after adjusting for age, triage category, comorbidities, ICU and service-related group (hazard ratio 1.28, 95% confidence interval 1.26-1.30, P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Patients with complex and multiple medical comorbidities, and those admitted under certain service-related groups such as psychiatry, surgery and oncology were found to have poorer ETP performance. Overall, failure to meet ETP was associated with increased mortality after adjusting for age, case-mix, comorbidities and acuity.

Diagnoses, damned diagnoses and statistics: Dealing with disparate diagnostic coding systems within the New South Wales Emergency Department Data Collection.

OBJECTIVES: The aims of the present study were to describe the distribution of Systematised Nomenclature of Medicine - Clinical Terms (SNOMED-CT) codes used in the current New South Wales Emergency Department Data Collection (NSW EDDC) and classify duplicate and redundant terms into clinically meaningful sub-groups for future analyses. METHODS: This was an analysis of ED diagnosis codes using a large state-wide administrative ED dataset between 2015 and 2018. RESULTS: A total of 7.4 million (77%) of ED episode diagnoses were coded with SNOMED-CT. Of those coded with SNOMED-CT, 12 152 unique codes were identified. Around 1000 of the most frequently used codes accounted for 90% of the presentations coded with SNOMED-CT and 5000 codes accounted for 99.8% of these. Around 7000 codes were deemed to be redundant, and duplication in terms exists across all sub-groups. CONCLUSION: The use of SNOMED-CT in the NSW EDDC has resulted in substantial use of non-specific, duplicate and redundant codes, limiting the capacity of the NSW EDDC to be used for effective data analysis.

Influenza-associated delays in patient throughput and premature patient departure in emergency departments in New South Wales, Australia: A time series analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Influenza outbreaks cause overcrowding in EDs. We aimed to quantify the impact of influenza on the National Emergency Access Targets and premature patient departure in New South Wales, Australia. METHODS: This was a retrospective observational study of 11 million presentations to 115 hospitals during 2010-2014, using routinely collected administrative records. A time series generalised additive regression model was used to assess the correlation between weekly influenza activity and the weekly proportion of patients leaving the ED in >4 h and the proportion that departed before commencing or completing treatment ('did not wait'), after controlling for background winter and holiday effects. RESULTS: During 2011-2014, peak annual circulating influenza was associated with the peak weekly proportion of presentations that left in >4 h. The maximum estimated absolute weekly change in that proportion was 3.88 (95% confidence interval 3.02-4.74) percentage points in 2014. For presentations that did not wait, influenza circulation was associated with statistically significant increases in all years, with a maximum weekly value of 2.68 (95% confidence interval 2.31-3.06) percentage points in 2012. CONCLUSIONS: Circulating influenza was associated with sustained increases and peaks in delayed patient throughput and premature patient departures. Influenza surveillance information may assist with development of health system and hospital workforce planning and bed management activities.