Predicting prolonged dose titration in patients starting warfarin.

PURPOSE: Patients initiating warfarin therapy generally experience a dose-titration period of weeks to months, during which time they are at higher risk of both thromboembolic and bleeding events. Accurate prediction of prolonged dose titration could help clinicians determine which patients might be better treated by alternative anticoagulants that, while more costly, do not require dose titration. METHODS: A prediction model was derived in a prospective cohort of patients starting warfarin (n = 390), using Cox regression, and validated in an external cohort (n = 663) from a later time period. Prolonged dose titration was defined as a dose-titration period >12 weeks. Predictor variables were selected using a modified best subsets algorithm, using leave-one-out cross-validation to reduce overfitting. RESULTS: The final model had five variables: warfarin indication, insurance status, number of doctor's visits in the previous year, smoking status, and heart failure. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) in the derivation cohort was 0.66 (95%CI 0.60, 0.74) using leave-one-out cross-validation, but only 0.59 (95%CI 0.54, 0.64) in the external validation cohort, and varied across clinics. Including genetic factors in the model did not improve the area under the ROC curve (0.59; 95%CI 0.54, 0.65). Relative utility curves indicated that the model was unlikely to provide a clinically meaningful benefit compared with no prediction. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that prolonged dose titration cannot be accurately predicted in warfarin patients using traditional clinical, social, and genetic predictors, and that accurate prediction will need to accommodate heterogeneities across clinical sites and over time. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Factors affecting time to maintenance dose in patients initiating warfarin.

PURPOSE: Patients starting warfarin often experience lengthy dose-titration periods, when they are at high risk for bleeding and thromboembolism. However, relatively little is known about why some patients take longer than others to reach maintenance dose. Thus, we sought to identify social, clinical, and genetic factors associated with prolonged time to maintenance dose (TTM). METHODS: We conducted a time-to-event analysis, using a prospective cohort of patients initiating warfarin (N = 390). Additionally, we examined whether changes in post-initiation factors were associated with TTM. Finally, we performed a secondary analysis in a subcohort (N = 156) assessing the effect of adherence on TTM. RESULTS: No genetic or post-initiation factors were significantly associated with TTM. However, previous use of warfarin [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.64; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.46, 0.88], current smoking status (HR = 0.61; 95%CI 0.39, 0.96), fewer than four doctor's visits in the previous year (HR = 0.63 vs 4-12 visits; 95%CI 0.46, 0.88), and worse general health status (HR = 0.63; 95%CI 0.47, 0.84) were significantly associated with longer TTM. Use of illegal injectable drugs (HR = 2.51; 95%CI 1.17, 5.39) was associated with shorter TTM. On secondary analysis, the HR for better adherence and TTM was 1.70 (95%CI 0.88, 3.27). CONCLUSIONS: Time to maintenance dose was associated with pre-existing behavioral factors, health care utilization, and health quality but not clinical comorbidities or genetic factors in patients initiating warfarin. Future studies are needed to determine whether warfarin patients with prolonged TTM would have better outcomes on alternative agents.

Immunologic perturbations in severe COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Although critical illness has been associated with SARS-CoV-2-induced hyperinflammation, the immune correlates of severe COVID-19 remain unclear. Here, we comprehensively analyzed peripheral blood immune perturbations in 42 SARS-CoV-2 infected and recovered individuals. We identified broad changes in neutrophils, NK cells, and monocytes during severe COVID-19, suggesting excessive mobilization of innate lineages. We found marked activation within T and B cells, highly oligoclonal B cell populations, profound plasmablast expansion, and SARS-CoV-2-specific antibodies in many, but not all, severe COVID-19 cases. Despite this heterogeneity, we found selective clustering of severe COVID-19 cases through unbiased analysis of the aggregated immunological phenotypes. Our findings demonstrate broad immune perturbations spanning both innate and adaptive leukocytes that distinguish dysregulated host responses in severe SARS-CoV-2 infection and warrant therapeutic investigation. One Sentence Summary: Broad immune perturbations in severe COVID-19.

Comprehensive mapping of immune perturbations associated with severe COVID-19.

Although critical illness has been associated with SARS-CoV-2-induced hyperinflammation, the immune correlates of severe COVID-19 remain unclear. Here, we comprehensively analyzed peripheral blood immune perturbations in 42 SARS-CoV-2 infected and recovered individuals. We identified extensive induction and activation of multiple immune lineages, including T cell activation, oligoclonal plasmablast expansion, and Fc and trafficking receptor modulation on innate lymphocytes and granulocytes, that distinguished severe COVID-19 cases from healthy donors or SARS-CoV-2-recovered or moderate severity patients. We found the neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio to be a prognostic biomarker of disease severity and organ failure. Our findings demonstrate broad innate and adaptive leukocyte perturbations that distinguish dysregulated host responses in severe SARS-CoV-2 infection and warrant therapeutic investigation.