Community health workers to improve adherence to anti-seizure medication in rural South Africa: Is it cost-effective?

OBJECTIVE: Epilepsy is a common, chronic neurological disorder that disproportionately affects individuals living in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where the treatment gap remains high and adherence to medication remains low. Community health workers (CHWs) have been shown to be effective at improving adherence to chronic medications, yet no study assessing the costs of CHWs in epilepsy management has been reported. METHODS: Using a Markov model with age- and sex-varying transition probabilities, we determined whether deploying CHWs to improve epilepsy treatment adherence in rural South Africa would be cost-effective. Data were derived using published studies from rural South Africa. Official statistics and international disability weights provided cost and health state values, respectively, and health gains were measured using quality adjusted life years (QALYs). RESULTS: The intervention was estimated at International Dollars ($) 123 250 per annum per sub-district community and cost $1494 and $1857 per QALY gained for males and females, respectively. Assuming a costlier intervention and lower effectiveness, cost per QALY was still less than South Africa's Gross Domestic Product per capita of $13 215, the cost-effectiveness threshold applied. SIGNIFICANCE: CHWs would be cost-effective and the intervention dominated even when costs and effects of the intervention were unfavorably varied. Health system re-engineering currently underway in South Africa identifies CHWs as vital links in primary health care, thereby ensuring sustainability of the intervention. Further research on understanding local health state utility values and cost-effectiveness thresholds could further inform the current model, and undertaking the proposed intervention would provide better estimates of its efficacy on reducing the epilepsy treatment gap in rural South Africa.

The CAPACITI Decision-Support Tool for National Immunization Programs.

OBJECTIVES: Immunization programs in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) are faced with an ever-growing number of vaccines of public health importance recommended by the World Health Organization, while also financing a greater proportion of the program through domestic resources. More than ever, national immunization programs must be equipped to contextualize global guidance and make choices that are best suited to their setting. The CAPACITI decision-support tool has been developed in collaboration with national immunization program decision makers in LMICs to structure and document an evidence-based, context-specific process for prioritizing or selecting among multiple vaccination products, services, or strategies. METHODS: The CAPACITI decision-support tool is based on multi-criteria decision analysis, as a structured way to incorporate multiple sources of evidence and stakeholder perspectives. The tool has been developed iteratively in consultation with 12 countries across Africa, Asia, and the Americas. RESULTS: The tool is flexible to existing country processes and can follow any type of multi-criteria decision analysis or a hybrid approach. It is structured into 5 sections: decision question, criteria for decision making, evidence assessment, appraisal, and recommendation. The Excel-based tool guides the user through the steps and document discussions in a transparent manner, with an emphasis on stakeholder engagement and country ownership. CONCLUSIONS: Pilot countries valued the CAPACITI decision-support tool as a means to consider multiple criteria and stakeholder perspectives and to evaluate trade-offs and the impact of data quality. With use, it is expected that LMICs will tailor steps to their context and streamline the tool for decision making.

Contextualization of cost-effectiveness evidence from literature for 382 health interventions for the Ethiopian essential health services package revision.

BACKGROUND: Cost-effectiveness of interventions was a criterion decided to guide priority setting in the latest revision of Ethiopia's essential health services package (EHSP) in 2019. However, conducting an economic evaluation study for a broad set of health interventions simultaneously is challenging in terms of cost, timeliness, input data demanded, and analytic competency. Therefore, this study aimed to synthesize and contextualize cost-effectiveness evidence for the Ethiopian EHSP interventions from the literature. METHODS: The evidence synthesis was conducted in five key steps: search, screen, evaluate, extract, and contextualize. We searched MEDLINE and EMBASE research databases for peer-reviewed published articles to identify average cost-effectiveness ratios (ACERs). Only studies reporting cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY), quality-adjusted life year (QALY), or life years gained (LYG) were included. All the articles were evaluated using the Drummond checklist for quality, and those with a score of at least 7 out of 10 were included. Information on cost, effectiveness, and ACER was extracted. All the ACERs were converted into 2019 US dollars using appropriate exchange rates and the GDP deflator. RESULTS: In this study, we synthesized ACERs for 382 interventions from seven major program areas, ranging from US$3 per DALY averted (for the provision of hepatitis B vaccination at birth) to US$242,880 per DALY averted (for late-stage liver cancer treatment). Overall, 56% of the interventions have an ACER of less than US$1000 per DALY, and 80% of the interventions have an ACER of less than US$10,000 per DALY. CONCLUSION: We conclude that it is possible to identify relevant economic evaluations using evidence from the literature, even if transferability remains a challenge. The present study identified several cost-effective candidate interventions that could, if scaled up, substantially reduce Ethiopia's disease burden.

Generalised cost-effectiveness analysis of 159 health interventions for the Ethiopian essential health service package.

BACKGROUND: Cost effectiveness was a criterion used to revise Ethiopia's essential health service package (EHSP) in 2019. However, there are few cost-effectiveness studies from Ethiopia or directly transferable evidence from other low-income countries to inform a comprehensive revision of the Ethiopian EHSP. Therefore, this paper reports average cost-effectiveness ratios (ACERs) of 159 health interventions used in the revision of Ethiopia's EHSP. METHODS: In this study, we estimate ACERs for 77 interventions on reproductive maternal neonatal and child health (RMNCH), infectious diseases and water sanitation and hygiene as well as for 82 interventions on non-communicable diseases. We used the standardised World Health Organization (WHO) CHOosing Interventions that are cost effective methodology (CHOICE) for generalised cost-effectiveness analysis. The health benefits of interventions were determined using a population state-transition model, which simulates the Ethiopian population, accounting for births, deaths and disease epidemiology. Healthy life years (HLYs) gained was employed as a measure of health benefits. We estimated the economic costs of interventions from the health system perspective, including programme overhead and training costs. We used the Spectrum generalised cost-effectiveness analysis tool for data analysis. We did not explicitly apply cost-effectiveness thresholds, but we used US$100 and $1000 as references to summarise and present the ACER results. RESULTS: We found ACERs ranging from less than US$1 per HLY gained (for family planning) to about US$48,000 per HLY gained (for treatment of stage 4 colorectal cancer). In general, 75% of the interventions evaluated had ACERs of less than US$1000 per HLY gained. The vast majority (95%) of RMNCH and infectious disease interventions had an ACER of less than US$1000 per HLY while almost half (44%) of non-communicable disease interventions had an ACER greater than US$1000 per HLY. CONCLUSION: The present study shows that several potential cost-effective interventions are available that could substantially reduce Ethiopia's disease burden if scaled up. The use of the World Health Organization's generalised cost-effectiveness analysis tool allowed us to rapidly calculate country-specific cost-effectiveness analysis values for 159 health interventions under consideration for Ethiopia's EHSP.

Investing in non-communicable disease prevention and management to advance the Sustainable Development Goals.

Reduction of the non-communicable disease (NCD) burden is a global development imperative. Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3 includes target 3·4 to reduce premature NCD mortality by a third by 2030. Progress on SDG target 3·4 will have a central role in determining the success of at least nine SDGs. A strengthened effort across multiple sectors with effective economic tools, such as price policies and insurance, is necessary. NCDs are heavily clustered in people with low socioeconomic status and are an important cause of medical impoverishment. They thereby exacerbate economic inequities within societies. As such, NCDs are a barrier to achieving SDG 1, SDG 2, SDG 4, SDG 5, and SDG 10. Productivity gains from preventing and managing NCDs will contribute to SDG 8. SDG 11 and SDG 12 offer clear opportunities to reduce the NCD burden and to create sustainable and healthy cities.

Investing in non-communicable diseases: an estimation of the return on investment for prevention and treatment services.

The global burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is growing, and there is an urgent need to estimate the costs and benefits of an investment strategy to prevent and control NCDs. Results from an investment-case analysis can provide important new evidence to inform decision making by governments and donors. We propose a methodology for calculating the economic benefits of investing in NCDs during the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) era, and we applied this methodology to cardiovascular disease prevention in 20 countries with the highest NCD burden. For a limited set of prevention interventions, we estimated that US$120 billion must be invested in these countries between 2015 and 2030. This investment represents an additional $1·50 per capita per year and would avert 15 million deaths, 8 million incidents of ischaemic heart disease, and 13 million incidents of stroke in the 20 countries. Benefit-cost ratios varied between interventions and country-income levels, with an average ratio of 5·6 for economic returns but a ratio of 10·9 if social returns are included. Investing in cardiovascular disease prevention is integral to achieving SDG target 3.4 (reducing premature mortality from NCDs by a third) and to progress towards SDG target 3.8 (the realisation of universal health coverage). Many countries have implemented cost-effective interventions at low levels, so the potential to achieve these targets and strengthen national income by scaling up these interventions is enormous.

Global health worker salary estimates: an econometric analysis of global earnings data.

BACKGROUND: Human resources are consistently cited as a leading contributor to health care costs; however the availability of internationally comparable data on health worker earnings for all countries is a challenge for estimating the costs of health care services. This paper describes an econometric model using cross sectional earnings data from the International Labour Organization (ILO) that the World Health Organizations (WHO)-Choosing Interventions that are Cost-effective programme (CHOICE) has used to prepare estimates of health worker earnings (in 2010 USD) for all WHO member states. METHODS: The ILO data contained 324 observations of earnings data across 4 skill levels for 193 countries. Using this data, along with the assumption that data were missing not at random, we used a Heckman two stage selection model to estimate earning data for each of the 4 skill levels for all WHO member states. RESULTS: It was possible to develop a prediction model for health worker earnings for all countries for which GDP data was available. Health worker earnings vary both within country due to skill level, as well as across countries. As a multiple of GDP per capita, earnings show a negative correlation with GDP-that is lower income countries pay their health workers relatively more than higher income countries. CONCLUSIONS: Limited data on health worker earnings is a limiting factor in estimating the costs of global health programmes. It is hoped that these estimates will support robust health care intervention costings and projections of resources needs over the Sustainable Development Goal period.

Disease control programme support costs: an update of WHO-CHOICE methodology, price databases and quantity assumptions.

BACKGROUND: Estimating health care costs, either in the context of understanding resource utilization in the implementation of a health plan, or in the context of economic evaluation, has become a common activity of health planners, health technology assessment agencies and academic groups. However, data sources for costs outside of direct service delivery are often scarce. WHO-CHOICE produces global price databases and guidance on quantity assumptions to support country level costing exercises. This paper presents updates to the WHO-CHOICE methodology and price databases for programme costs. METHODS: We collated publicly available databases for 14 non-traded cost variables, as well as a set of traded items used within health systems (traded goods are those which can be purchased from anywhere in the world, whereas non-traded goods are those which must be produced locally, such as human resources). Within each of the variables, missing data was present for some proportion of the WHO member states. For each variables statistical or econometric models were used to model prices for each of the 194 WHO member states in 2010 International Dollars. Literature reviews were used to update quantity assumptions associated with each variable to contribute to the support costs of disease control programmes. RESULTS: A full database of prices for disease control programme support costs is available for country-specific costing purposes. Human resources are the largest driver of disease control programme support costs, followed by supervision costs. CONCLUSIONS: Despite major advances in the availability of data since the previous version of this work, there are still some limitations in data availability to respond to the needs of those wishing to develop cost and cost-effectiveness estimates. Greater attention to programme support costs in cost data collection activities would contribute to an understanding of how these costs contribute to quality of health service delivery and should be encouraged.

Cost-effectiveness thresholds: pros and cons.

Cost-effectiveness analysis is used to compare the costs and outcomes of alternative policy options. Each resulting cost-effectiveness ratio represents the magnitude of additional health gained per additional unit of resources spent. Cost-effectiveness thresholds allow cost-effectiveness ratios that represent good or very good value for money to be identified. In 2001, the World Health Organization's Commission on Macroeconomics in Health suggested cost-effectiveness thresholds based on multiples of a country's per-capita gross domestic product (GDP). In some contexts, in choosing which health interventions to fund and which not to fund, these thresholds have been used as decision rules. However, experience with the use of such GDP-based thresholds in decision-making processes at country level shows them to lack country specificity and this - in addition to uncertainty in the modelled cost-effectiveness ratios - can lead to the wrong decision on how to spend health-care resources. Cost-effectiveness information should be used alongside other considerations - e.g. budget impact and feasibility considerations - in a transparent decision-making process, rather than in isolation based on a single threshold value. Although cost-effectiveness ratios are undoubtedly informative in assessing value for money, countries should be encouraged to develop a context-specific process for decision-making that is supported by legislation, has stakeholder buy-in, for example the involvement of civil society organizations and patient groups, and is transparent, consistent and fair.

Les analyses de rentabilité permettent de comparer les coûts et les résultats de différentes options politiques. Chaque ratio coût-efficacité qui en découle indique l'importance des avantages supplémentaires pour la santé par unité supplémentaire de ressources dépensée. Les seuils de rentabilité permettent de déterminer les ratios coût-efficacité qui représentent une bonne ou une très bonne rentabilité. En 2001, la Commission macroéconomie et santé de l'Organisation mondiale de la Santé a suggéré des seuils de rentabilité définis d'après des multiples du produit intérieur brut (PIB) par habitant d'un pays. Dans certains pays, ces seuils ont servi de règles pour décider quelles interventions financer ou non. Cependant, l'expérience d'utilisation de ces seuils fondés sur le PIB dans les processus décisionnels des pays montre qu'ils ne tiennent pas compte des spécificités des pays; cela, ajouté à une certaine incertitude concernant la modélisation des ratios coût-efficacité, peut entraîner la prise de mauvaises décisions quant à l'utilisation des ressources sanitaires. Les informations sur la rentabilité des interventions devraient être prises en compte parallèlement à d'autres considérations, comme l'impact budgétaire et la faisabilité, dans le cadre d'un processus décisionnel transparent et non de façon isolée sur la base d'une seule valeur seuil. Bien que le caractère informatif des ratios coût-efficacité soit indéniable lorsqu'il s'agit d'évaluer la rentabilité des interventions, les pays devraient être encouragés à développer un processus de prise de décision spécifique au contexte, qui soit encadré par la législation et qui ait l'adhésion des parties intéressées, avec par exemple l'implication d'organisations de la société civile et de groupes de patients, et qui soit transparent, cohérent et équitable.

El análisis de rentabilidad se utiliza para comparar los costes y resultados de opciones políticas alternativas. Cada relación de rentabilidad resultante representa la magnitud de sanidad adicional obtenida por unidad adicional de recursos utilizados. Los umbrales de rentabilidad permiten la identificación de las relaciones de rentabilidad que representan un valor bueno o muy bueno del capital. En 2001, los umbrales de rentabilidad propuestos por la Comisión sobre Macroeconomía y Salud de la Organización Mundial de la Salud se basaron en múltiplos del producto interior bruto (PIB) per cápita de un país. En algunos contextos, se han utilizado estos umbrales para decidir qué intervenciones sanitarias financiar y cuáles no. No obstante, la experiencia con el uso de dichos umbrales basados en el PIB en los procesos de toma de decisiones a nivel nacional muestra la ausencia de especificidad según el país. Esto, además de la incertidumbre de las relaciones de rentabilidad modelo, puede dar lugar a una toma de decisiones equivocada sobre cómo emplear los recursos sanitarios. La información relativa a la rentabilidad debería utilizarse teniendo en cuenta otros factores (por ejemplo, el impacto presupuestario y aspectos de viabilidad) en un proceso transparente de toma de decisiones, en lugar de únicamente teniendo como referencia un solo valor del umbral. A pesar de que las relaciones de rentabilidad son indudablemente esclarecedoras a la hora de evaluar el valor del capital, es necesario fomentar que los países desarrollen un proceso específico del contexto apoyado por la legislación para tomar decisiones, como, por ejemplo, si las partes interesadas han aceptado la implicación de las organizaciones de la sociedad civil y grupos de pacientes y si es transparente, coherente y justa.

Prevention and treatment of cardiovascular disease in Ethiopia: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

BACKGROUND: The coverage of prevention and treatment strategies for ischemic heart disease and stroke is very low in Ethiopia. In view of Ethiopia's meager healthcare budget, it is important to identify the most cost-effective interventions for further scale-up. This paper's objective is to assess cost-effectiveness of prevention and treatment of ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke in an Ethiopian setting. METHODS: Fifteen single interventions and sixteen intervention packages were assessed from a healthcare provider perspective. The World Health Organization's Choosing Interventions that are Cost-Effective model for cardiovascular disease was updated with available country-specific inputs, including demography, mortality and price of traded and non-traded goods. Costs and health benefits were discounted at 3 % per year. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios are reported in US$ per disability adjusted life year (DALY) averted. Sensitivity analysis was undertaken to assess robustness of our results. RESULTS: Combination drug treatment for individuals having >35 % absolute risk of a CVD event in the next 10 years is the most cost-effective intervention. This intervention costs US$67 per DALY averted and about US$7 million annually. Treatment of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) (costing US$1000-US$7530 per DALY averted) and secondary prevention of IHD and stroke (costing US$1060-US$10,340 per DALY averted) become more efficient when delivered in integrated packages. At an annual willingness-to-pay (WTP) level of about US$3 million, a package consisting of aspirin, streptokinase, ACE-inhibitor and beta-blocker for AMI has the highest probability of being most cost-effective, whereas as WTP increases to > US$7 million, combination drug treatment to individuals having >35 % absolute risk stands out as the most cost-effective strategy. Cost-effectiveness ratios were relatively more sensitive to halving the effectiveness estimates as compared with doubling the price of drugs and laboratory tests. CONCLUSIONS: In Ethiopia, the escalating burden of CVD and its risk factors warrants timely action. We have demonstrated that selected CVD intervention packages could be scaled up at a modest budget increase. The level of willingness-to-pay has important implications for interventions' probability of being cost-effective. The study provides valuable evidence for setting priorities in an essential healthcare package for CVD in Ethiopia.

Projected economic evaluation of the national implementation of a hypothetical HIV vaccination program among adolescents in South Africa, 2012.

BACKGROUND: Adolescents in South Africa are at high risk of acquiring HIV. The HIV vaccination of adolescents could reduce HIV incidence and mortality. The potential impact and cost-effectiveness of a national school-based HIV vaccination program among adolescents was determined. METHOD: The national HIV disease and cost burden was compared with (intervention) and without HIV vaccination (comparator) given to school-going adolescents using a semi-Markov model. Life table analysis was conducted to determine the impact of the intervention on life expectancy. Model inputs included measures of disease and cost burden and hypothetical assumptions of vaccine characteristics. The base-case HIV vaccine modelled cost at US$ 12 per dose; vaccine efficacy of 50 %; duration of protection of 10 years achieved at a coverage rate of 60 % and required annual boosters. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) were calculated using life years gained (LYG) serving as the outcome measure. Sensitivity analyses were conducted on the vaccine characteristics to assess parameter uncertainty. RESULTS: The HIV vaccination model yielded an ICER of US$ 5 per LYG (95 % CI ZAR 2.77-11.61) compared with the comparator, which is considerably less than the national willingness-to-pay threshold of cost-effectiveness. This translated to an 11 % increase in per capita costs from US$ 80 to US$ 89. National implementation of this intervention could potentially result in an estimated cumulative gain of 23.6 million years of life (95 % CI 8.48-34.3 million years) among adolescents age 10-19 years that were vaccinated. The 10 year absolute risk reduction projected by vaccine implementation was 0.42 % for HIV incidence and 0.41 % for HIV mortality, with an increase in life expectancy noted across all age groups. The ICER was sensitive to the vaccine efficacy, coverage and vaccine pricing in the sensitivity analysis. CONCLUSIONS: A national HIV vaccination program would be cost-effective and would avert new HIV infections and decrease the mortality and morbidity associated with HIV disease. Decision makers would have to discern how these findings, derived from local data and reflective of the South African epidemic, can be integrated into the national long term health planning should a HIV vaccine become available.

Burden of stroke attributable to selected lifestyle risk factors in rural South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Rural South Africa (SA) is undergoing a rapid health transition characterized by increases in non-communicable diseases; stroke in particular. Knowledge of the relative contribution of modifiable risk factors on disease occurrence is needed for public health prevention efforts and community-oriented health promotion. Our aim was to estimate the burden of stroke in rural SA that is attributable to high blood pressure, excess weight and high blood glucose using World Health Organization's comparative risk assessment (CRA) framework. METHODS: We estimated current exposure distributions of the risk factors in rural SA using 2010 data from the Agincourt health and demographic surveillance system (HDSS). Relative risks of stroke per unit of exposure were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010. We used data from the Agincourt HDSS to estimate age-, sex-, and stroke specific deaths and disability adjusted life years (DALYs). We estimated the proportion of the years of life lost (YLL) and DALY loss attributable to the risk factors and incorporate uncertainty intervals into these estimates. RESULTS: Overall, 38 % of the documented stroke burden was due to high blood pressure (12 % males; 26 % females). This translated to 520 YLL per year (95 % CI: 325-678) and 540 DALYs (CI: 343-717). Excess Body Mass Index (BMI) was calculated as responsible for 20 % of the stroke burden (3.5 % males; 16 % females). This translated to 260 YLLs (CI: 199-330) and 277 DALYs (CI: 211-350). Burden was disproportionately higher in young females when BMI was assessed. CONCLUSIONS: High blood pressure and excess weight, which both have effective interventions, are responsible for a significant proportion of the stroke burden in rural SA; the burden varies across age and sex sub-groups. The most effective way forward to reduce the stroke burden requires both population wide policies that have an impact across the age spectra and targeted (health promotion/disease prevention) interventions on women and young people.

Health care utilization and outpatient, out-of-pocket costs for active convulsive epilepsy in rural northeastern South Africa: a cross-sectional Survey.

BACKGROUND: Epilepsy is a common neurological disorder, with over 80 % of cases found in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Studies from high-income countries find a significant economic burden associated with epilepsy, yet few studies from LMICs, where out-of-pocket costs for general healthcare can be substantial, have assessed out-of-pocket costs and health care utilization for outpatient epilepsy care. METHODS: Within an established health and socio-demographic surveillance system in rural South Africa, a questionnaire to assess self-reported health care utilization and time spent traveling to and waiting to be seen at health facilities was administered to 250 individuals, previously diagnosed with active convulsive epilepsy. Epilepsy patients' out-of-pocket, medical and non-medical costs and frequency of outpatient care visits during the previous 12-months were determined. RESULTS: Within the last year, 132 (53 %) individuals reported consulting at a clinic, 162 (65 %) at a hospital and 34 (14 %) with traditional healers for epilepsy care. Sixty-seven percent of individuals reported previously consulting with both biomedical caregivers and traditional healers. Direct outpatient, median costs per visit varied significantly (p < 0.001) between hospital (2010 International dollar ($) 9.08; IQR: $6.41-$12.83) and clinic consultations ($1.74; IQR: $0-$5.58). Traditional healer fees per visit were found to cost $52.36 (IQR: $34.90-$87.26) per visit. Average annual outpatient, clinic and hospital out-of-pocket costs totaled $58.41. Traveling to and from and waiting to be seen by the caregiver at the hospital took significantly longer than at the clinic. CONCLUSIONS: Rural South Africans with epilepsy consult with both biomedical caregivers and traditional healers for both epilepsy and non-epilepsy care. Traditional healers were the most expensive mode of care, though utilized less often. While higher out-of-pocket costs were incurred at hospital visits, more people with ACE visited hospitals than clinics for epilepsy care. Promoting increased use and effective care at clinics and reducing travel and waiting times could substantially reduce the out-of-pocket costs of outpatient epilepsy care.

Disease burden of stroke in rural South Africa: an estimate of incidence, mortality and disability adjusted life years.

BACKGROUND: In the context of an epidemiologic transition in South Africa, in which cardiovascular disease is increasing, little is known about the stroke burden, particularly morbidity in rural populations. Risk factors for stroke are high, with hypertension prevalence of more than 50%. Accurate, up-to-date information on disease burden is essential in planning health services for stroke management. This study estimates the burden of stroke in rural South Africa using the epidemiological parameters of incidence, mortality and disability adjusted life year (DALY) metric, a time-based measure that incorporates both mortality and morbidity. METHODS: Data from the Agincourt health and socio-demographic surveillance system was utilised to calculate stroke mortality for the period 2007-2011. Dismod, an incidence-prevalence-mortality model, was used to estimate incidence and duration of disability in Agincourt sub-district and 'mostly rural' municipalities of South Africa. Using these values, burden of disease in years of life lost (YLL), years lived with disability (YLD) and DALYs was calculated for Agincourt sub-district. RESULTS: Over 5 years, there were an estimated 842 incident cases of stroke in Agincourt sub-district, a crude stroke incidence rate of 244 per 100,000 person years. We estimate that 1,070 DALYs are lost due to stroke yearly. Of this, YLDs contributed 8.7% (3.5 - 10.5%) in sensitivity analysis). Crude stroke mortality was 114 per 100,000 person-years in 2007-11 in Agincourt sub-district. Burden of stroke in entire rural South Africa, a population of some 13,000,000 people, was high, with an estimated 33, 500 strokes occurring in 2011. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides the first estimates of stroke burden in terms of incidence, and disability in rural South Africa. High YLL and DALYs lost amongst the rural populations demand urgent measures for preventing and mitigating impacts of stroke. Longitudinal surveillance sites provide a platform through which a changing stroke burden can be monitored in rural South Africa.

Burden of epilepsy in rural Kenya measured in disability-adjusted life years.

OBJECTIVES: The burden of epilepsy, in terms of both morbidity and mortality, is likely to vary depending on the etiology (primary [genetic/unknown] vs. secondary [structural/metabolic]) and with the use of antiepileptic drugs (AEDs). We estimated the disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and modeled the remission rates of active convulsive epilepsy (ACE) using epidemiologic data collected over the last decade in rural Kilifi, Kenya. METHODS: We used measures of prevalence, incidence, and mortality to model the remission of epilepsy using disease-modeling software (DisMod II). DALYs were calculated as the sum of Years Lost to Disability (YLD) and Years of Life Lost (YLL) due to premature death using the prevalence approach, with disability weights (DWs) from the 2010 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. DALYs were calculated with R statistical software with the associated uncertainty intervals (UIs) computed by bootstrapping. RESULTS: A total of 1,005 (95% UI 797-1,213) DALYs were lost to ACE, which is 433 (95% UI 393-469) DALYs lost per 100,000 people. Twenty-six percent (113/100,000/year, 95% UI 106-117) of the DALYs were due to YLD and 74% (320/100,000/year, 95% UI 248-416) to YLL. Primary epilepsy accounted for fewer DALYs than secondary epilepsy (98 vs. 334 DALYs per 100,000 people). Those taking AEDs contributed fewer DALYs than those not taking AEDs (167 vs. 266 DALYs per 100,000 people). The proportion of people with ACE in remission per year was estimated at 11.0% in males and 12.0% in females, with highest rates in the 0-5 year age group. SIGNIFICANCE: The DALYs for ACE are high in rural Kenya, but less than the estimates of 2010 GBD study. Three-fourths of DALYs resulted from secondary epilepsy. Use of AEDs was associated with 40% reduction of DALYs. Improving adherence to AEDs may reduce the burden of epilepsy in this area.

Hypertension education and adherence in South Africa: a cost-effectiveness analysis of community health workers.

BACKGROUND: To determine whether training community health workers (CHWs) about hypertension in order to improve adherence to medications is a cost-effective intervention among community members in South Africa. METHODS: We used an established Markov model with age-varying probabilities of cardiovascular disease (CVD) events to assess the benefits and costs of using CHW home visits to increase hypertension adherence for individuals with hypertension and aged 25-74 in South Africa. Subjects considered for CHW intervention were those with a previous diagnosis of hypertension and on medications but who had not achieved control of their blood pressure. We report our results in incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) in US dollars per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted. RESULTS: The annual cost of the CHW intervention is about $8 per patient. This would lead to over a 2% reduction in CVD events over a life-time and decrease DALY burden. Due to reductions in non-fatal CVD events, lifetime costs are only $6.56 per patient. The CHW intervention leads to an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $320/DALY averted. At an annual cost of $6.50 or if the blood pressure reduction is 5 mmHg or greater per patient the intervention is cost-saving. CONCLUSIONS: Additional training for CHWs on hypertension management could be a cost-effective strategy for CVD in South Africa and a very good purchase according to World Health Organization (WHO) standards. The intervention could also lead to reduced visits at the health centres freeing up more time for new patients or reducing the burden of an overworked staff at many facilities.

Applying a private sector capitation model to the management of type 2 diabetes in the South African public sector: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

BACKGROUND: Diabetes mellitus contributes substantially to the non-communicable disease burden in South Africa. The proposed National Health Insurance system provides an opportunity to consider the development of a cost-effective capitation model of care for patients with type 2 diabetes. The objective of the study was to determine the potential cost-effectiveness of adapting a private sector diabetes management programme (DMP) to the South African public sector. METHODS: Cost-effectiveness analysis was undertaken with a public sector model of the DMP as the intervention and a usual practice model as the comparator. Probabilistic modelling was utilized for incremental cost-effectiveness ratio analysis with life years gained selected as the outcome. Secondary data were used to design the model while cost information was obtained from various sources, taking into account public sector billing. RESULTS: Modelling found an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of ZAR 8 356 (USD 1018) per life year gained (LYG) for the DMP against the usual practice model. This fell substantially below the Willingness-to-Pay threshold with bootstrapping analysis. Furthermore, a national implementation of the intervention could potentially result in an estimated cumulative gain of 96 997 years of life (95% CI 71 073 years - 113 994 years). CONCLUSIONS: Probabilistic modelling found the capitation intervention to be cost-effective, with an ICER of ZAR 8 356 (USD 1018) per LYG. Piloting the service within the public sector is recommended as an initial step, as this would provide data for more accurate economic evaluation, and would also allow for qualitative analysis of the programme.

Cost-effectiveness of interventions for reducing road traffic injuries related to driving under the influence of alcohol.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the cost-effectiveness of interventions to reduce road traffic injuries caused by driving under the influence of alcohol in Thailand. METHODS: We used generalized cost-effectiveness analysis and included costs from a health sector perspective. The model considered road traffic crash victims who were injured, disabled, or died. We obtained proportions of alcohol-related crashes from the Thai Injury Surveillance system. Intervention effectiveness was derived from published reviews and a study in one province of Thailand. Random breath testing, selective breath testing, and mass media campaigns, both current and intervention scenarios, were compared with a "do-nothing" scenario. We calculated intervention costs and cost offsets of prevented treatment costs in 2004 Thai baht (US $1 = 41 baht) and measured benefits in terms of disability-adjusted life-years averted. Interventions with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios below 110,000 Thai baht (1×gross domestic product per capita) per disability-adjusted life-year (US $2,680) were considered very cost-effective. RESULTS: Compared with doing nothing, mass media campaigns, random breath testing, and selective breath testing are all cost saving. When averted treatment costs are ignored and only intervention costs are included, all three interventions are very cost-effective, with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of 10,300, 14,300 and 13,000 baht/disability-adjusted life-year, respectively. The current mix of mass media campaigns and sobriety checkpoints is therefore also cost-effective, but underinvestment in checkpoints limits its overall effect. CONCLUSIONS: A greater intensity of conducting sobriety checkpoints in Thailand is recommended to complement the investment in mass media campaigns. Together these interventions have the potential to reduce the burden of alcohol-related road traffic injuries by 24%.

Evidence that a tax on sugar sweetened beverages reduces the obesity rate: a meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Excess intake of sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs) has been shown to result in weight gain. To address the growing epidemic of obesity, one option is to combine programmes that target individual behaviour change with a fiscal policy such as excise tax on SSBs. This study evaluates the literature on SSB taxes or price increases, and their potential impact on consumption levels, obesity, overweight and body mass index (BMI). The possibility of switching to alternative drinks is also considered. METHODS: The following databases were used: Pubmed/Medline, The Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Google Scholar, Econlit, National Bureau of Economics Research (NBER), Research Papers in Economics (RePEc). Articles published between January 2000 and January 2013, which reported changes in diet or BMI, overweight and/or obesity due to a tax on, or price change of, SSBs were included. RESULTS: Nine articles met the criteria for the meta-analysis. Six were from the USA and one each from Mexico, Brazil and France. All showed negative own-price elasticity, which means that higher prices are associated with a lower demand for SSBs. Pooled own price-elasticity was -1.299 (95% CI: -1.089 - -1.509). Four articles reported cross-price elasticities, three from the USA and one from Mexico; higher prices for SSBs were associated with an increased demand for alternative beverages such as fruit juice (0.388, 95% CI: 0.009 - 0.767) and milk (0.129, 95% CI: -0.085 - 0.342), and a reduced demand for diet drinks (-0.423, 95% CI: -0.628 - -1.219). Six articles from the USA showed that a higher price could also lead to a decrease in BMI, and decrease the prevalence of overweight and obesity. CONCLUSIONS: Taxing SSBs may reduce obesity. Future research should estimate price elasticities in low- and middle-income countries and identify potential health gains and the wider impact on jobs, monetary savings to the health sector, implementation costs and government revenue. Context-specific cost-effectiveness studies would allow policy makers to weigh these factors.