Tracking Changes in SARS-CoV-2 Spike: Evidence that D614G Increases Infectivity of the COVID-19 Virus.

A SARS-CoV-2 variant carrying the Spike protein amino acid change D614G has become the most prevalent form in the global pandemic. Dynamic tracking of variant frequencies revealed a recurrent pattern of G614 increase at multiple geographic levels: national, regional, and municipal. The shift occurred even in local epidemics where the original D614 form was well established prior to introduction of the G614 variant. The consistency of this pattern was highly statistically significant, suggesting that the G614 variant may have a fitness advantage. We found that the G614 variant grows to a higher titer as pseudotyped virions. In infected individuals, G614 is associated with lower RT-PCR cycle thresholds, suggestive of higher upper respiratory tract viral loads, but not with increased disease severity. These findings illuminate changes important for a mechanistic understanding of the virus and support continuing surveillance of Spike mutations to aid with development of immunological interventions.

Prevention efficacy of the broadly neutralizing antibody VRC01 depends on HIV-1 envelope sequence features.

In the Antibody Mediated Prevention (AMP) trials (HVTN 704/HPTN 085 and HVTN 703/HPTN 081), prevention efficacy (PE) of the monoclonal broadly neutralizing antibody (bnAb) VRC01 (vs. placebo) against HIV-1 acquisition diagnosis varied according to the HIV-1 Envelope (Env) neutralization sensitivity to VRC01, as measured by 80% inhibitory concentration (IC80). Here, we performed a genotypic sieve analysis, a complementary approach to gaining insight into correlates of protection that assesses how PE varies with HIV-1 sequence features. We analyzed HIV-1 Env amino acid (AA) sequences from the earliest available HIV-1 RNA-positive plasma samples from AMP participants diagnosed with HIV-1 and identified Env sequence features that associated with PE. The strongest Env AA sequence correlate in both trials was VRC01 epitope distance that quantifies the divergence of the VRC01 epitope in an acquired HIV-1 isolate from the VRC01 epitope of reference HIV-1 strains that were most sensitive to VRC01-mediated neutralization. In HVTN 704/HPTN 085, the Env sequence-based predicted probability that VRC01 IC80 against the acquired isolate exceeded 1 µg/mL also significantly associated with PE. In HVTN 703/HPTN 081, a physicochemical-weighted Hamming distance across 50 VRC01 binding-associated Env AA positions of the acquired isolate from the most VRC01-sensitive HIV-1 strain significantly associated with PE. These results suggest that incorporating mutation scoring by BLOSUM62 and weighting by the strength of interactions at AA positions in the epitope:VRC01 interface can optimize performance of an Env sequence-based biomarker of VRC01 prevention efficacy. Future work could determine whether these results extend to other bnAbs and bnAb combinations.

Deep learning uncertainty quantification for clinical text classification.

INTRODUCTION: Machine learning algorithms are expected to work side-by-side with humans in decision-making pipelines. Thus, the ability of classifiers to make reliable decisions is of paramount importance. Deep neural networks (DNNs) represent the state-of-the-art models to address real-world classification. Although the strength of activation in DNNs is often correlated with the network's confidence, in-depth analyses are needed to establish whether they are well calibrated. METHOD: In this paper, we demonstrate the use of DNN-based classification tools to benefit cancer registries by automating information extraction of disease at diagnosis and at surgery from electronic text pathology reports from the US National Cancer Institute (NCI) Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) population-based cancer registries. In particular, we introduce multiple methods for selective classification to achieve a target level of accuracy on multiple classification tasks while minimizing the rejection amount-that is, the number of electronic pathology reports for which the model's predictions are unreliable. We evaluate the proposed methods by comparing our approach with the current in-house deep learning-based abstaining classifier. RESULTS: Overall, all the proposed selective classification methods effectively allow for achieving the targeted level of accuracy or higher in a trade-off analysis aimed to minimize the rejection rate. On in-distribution validation and holdout test data, with all the proposed methods, we achieve on all tasks the required target level of accuracy with a lower rejection rate than the deep abstaining classifier (DAC). Interpreting the results for the out-of-distribution test data is more complex; nevertheless, in this case as well, the rejection rate from the best among the proposed methods achieving 97% accuracy or higher is lower than the rejection rate based on the DAC. CONCLUSIONS: We show that although both approaches can flag those samples that should be manually reviewed and labeled by human annotators, the newly proposed methods retain a larger fraction and do so without retraining-thus offering a reduced computational cost compared with the in-house deep learning-based abstaining classifier.

Pion-Nucleon Sigma Term from Lattice QCD.

We present an analysis of the pion-nucleon σ-term σ_{πN} using six ensembles with 2+1+1-flavor highly improved staggered quark action generated by the MILC Collaboration. The most serious systematic effect in lattice calculations of nucleon correlation functions is the contribution of excited states. We estimate these using chiral perturbation theory (χPT) and show that the leading contribution to the isoscalar scalar charge comes from Nπ and Nππ states. Therefore, we carry out two analyses of lattice data to remove excited-state contamination, the standard one and a new one including Nπ and Nππ states. We find that the standard analysis gives σ_{πN}=41.9(4.9) MeV, consistent with previous lattice calculations, while our preferred χPT-motivated analysis gives σ_{πN}=59.6(7.4) MeV, which is consistent with phenomenological values obtained using πN scattering data. Our data on one physical pion mass ensemble were crucial for exposing this difference, therefore, calculations on additional physical mass ensembles are needed to confirm our result and resolve the tension between lattice QCD and phenomenology.

Qubit Regularization of Asymptotic Freedom.

We provide strong evidence that the asymptotically free (1+1)-dimensional nonlinear O(3) sigma model can be regularized using a quantum lattice Hamiltonian, referred to as the "Heisenberg comb," that acts on a Hilbert space with only two qubits per spatial lattice site. The Heisenberg comb consists of a spin-half antiferromagnetic Heisenberg chain coupled antiferromagnetically to a second local spin-half particle at every lattice site. Using a world-line Monte Carlo method, we show that the model reproduces the universal step-scaling function of the traditional model up to correlation lengths of 200000 in lattice units and argue how the continuum limit could emerge. We provide a quantum circuit description of the time evolution of the model and argue that near-term quantum computers may suffice to demonstrate asymptotic freedom.

Superinfection and cure of infected cells as mechanisms for hepatitis C virus adaptation and persistence.

RNA viruses exist as a genetically diverse quasispecies with extraordinary ability to adapt to abrupt changes in the host environment. However, the molecular mechanisms that contribute to their rapid adaptation and persistence in vivo are not well studied. Here, we probe hepatitis C virus (HCV) persistence by analyzing clinical samples taken from subjects who were treated with a second-generation HCV protease inhibitor. Frequent longitudinal viral load determinations and large-scale single-genome sequence analyses revealed rapid antiviral resistance development, and surprisingly, dynamic turnover of dominant drug-resistant mutant populations long after treatment cessation. We fitted mathematical models to both the viral load and the viral sequencing data, and the results provided strong support for the critical roles that superinfection and cure of infected cells play in facilitating the rapid turnover and persistence of viral populations. More broadly, our results highlight the importance of considering viral dynamics and competition at the intracellular level in understanding rapid viral adaptation. Thus, we propose a theoretical framework integrating viral and molecular mechanisms to explain rapid viral evolution, resistance, and persistence despite antiviral treatment and host immune responses.

Axial Vector Form Factors from Lattice QCD that Satisfy the PCAC Relation.

Previous lattice QCD calculations of axial vector and pseudoscalar form factors show significant deviation from the partially conserved axial current (PCAC) relation between them. Since the original correlation functions satisfy PCAC, the observed deviations from the operator identity cast doubt on whether all of the systematics in the extraction of form factors from the correlation functions are under control. We identify the problematic systematic as a missed excited state, whose energy as a function of the momentum transfer squared Q^{2} is determined from the analysis of the three-point functions themselves. Its energy is much smaller than those of the excited states previously considered, and including it impacts the extraction of all of the ground state matrix elements. The form factors extracted using these mass and energy gaps satisfy PCAC and another consistency condition, and they validate the pion-pole dominance hypothesis. We also show that the extraction of the axial charge g_{A} is very sensitive to the value of the mass gaps of the excited states used, and current lattice data do not provide an unambiguous determination of these, unlike the Q^{2}≠0 case. To highlight the differences and improvement between the conventional vs the new analysis strategy, we present a comparison of results obtained on a physical pion mass ensemble at a≈0.0871 fm. With the new strategy, we find g_{A}=1.30(6) and axial charge radius r_{A}=0.74(6) fm, both extracted using the z expansion to parametrize the Q^{2} behavior of G_{A}(Q^{2}), and g_{P}^{*}=8.06(44), obtained using the pion-pole dominance ansatz to fit the Q^{2} behavior of the induced pseudoscalar form factor G[over ˜]_{P}(Q^{2}). These results are consistent with current phenomenological values.

Kinship structures create persistent channels for language transmission.

Languages are transmitted through channels created by kinship systems. Given sufficient time, these kinship channels can change the genetic and linguistic structure of populations. In traditional societies of eastern Indonesia, finely resolved cophylogenies of languages and genes reveal persistent movements between stable speech communities facilitated by kinship rules. When multiple languages are present in a region and postmarital residence rules encourage sustained directional movement between speech communities, then languages should be channeled along uniparental lines. We find strong evidence for this pattern in 982 individuals from 25 villages on two adjacent islands, where different kinship rules have been followed. Core groups of close relatives have stayed together for generations, while remaining in contact with, and marrying into, surrounding groups. Over time, these kinship systems shaped their gene and language phylogenies: Consistently following a postmarital residence rule turned social communities into speech communities.

On the universal structure of human lexical semantics.

How universal is human conceptual structure? The way concepts are organized in the human brain may reflect distinct features of cultural, historical, and environmental background in addition to properties universal to human cognition. Semantics, or meaning expressed through language, provides indirect access to the underlying conceptual structure, but meaning is notoriously difficult to measure, let alone parameterize. Here, we provide an empirical measure of semantic proximity between concepts using cross-linguistic dictionaries to translate words to and from languages carefully selected to be representative of worldwide diversity. These translations reveal cases where a particular language uses a single "polysemous" word to express multiple concepts that another language represents using distinct words. We use the frequency of such polysemies linking two concepts as a measure of their semantic proximity and represent the pattern of these linkages by a weighted network. This network is highly structured: Certain concepts are far more prone to polysemy than others, and naturally interpretable clusters of closely related concepts emerge. Statistical analysis of the polysemies observed in a subset of the basic vocabulary shows that these structural properties are consistent across different language groups, and largely independent of geography, environment, and the presence or absence of a literary tradition. The methods developed here can be applied to any semantic domain to reveal the extent to which its conceptual structure is, similarly, a universal attribute of human cognition and language use.

CAT: computer aided triage improving upon the Bayes risk through ε-refusal triage rules.

BACKGROUND: Manual extraction of information from electronic pathology (epath) reports to populate the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Result (SEER) database is labor intensive. Systematizing the data extraction automatically using machine-learning (ML) and natural language processing (NLP) is desirable to reduce the human labor required to populate the SEER database and to improve the timeliness of the data. This enables scaling up registry efficiency and collection of new data elements. To ensure the integrity, quality, and continuity of the SEER data, the misclassification error of ML and NPL algorithms needs to be negligible. Current algorithms fail to achieve the precision of human experts who can bring additional information in their assessments. Differences in registry format and the desire to develop a common information extraction platform further complicate the ML/NLP tasks. The purpose of our study is to develop triage rules to partially automate registry workflow to improve the precision of the auto-extracted information. RESULTS: This paper presents a mathematical framework to improve the precision of a classifier beyond that of the Bayes classifier by selectively classifying item that are most likely to be correct. This results in a triage rule that only classifies a subset of the item. We characterize the optimal triage rule and demonstrate its usefulness in the problem of classifying cancer site from electronic pathology reports to achieve a desired precision. CONCLUSIONS: From the mathematical formalism, we propose a heuristic estimate for triage rule based on post-processing the soft-max output from standard machine learning algorithms. We show, in test cases, that the triage rule significantly improve the classification accuracy.

Optimal Combinations of Broadly Neutralizing Antibodies for Prevention and Treatment of HIV-1 Clade C Infection.

The identification of a new generation of potent broadly neutralizing HIV-1 antibodies (bnAbs) has generated substantial interest in their potential use for the prevention and/or treatment of HIV-1 infection. While combinations of bnAbs targeting distinct epitopes on the viral envelope (Env) will likely be required to overcome the extraordinary diversity of HIV-1, a key outstanding question is which bnAbs, and how many, will be needed to achieve optimal clinical benefit. We assessed the neutralizing activity of 15 bnAbs targeting four distinct epitopes of Env, including the CD4-binding site (CD4bs), the V1/V2-glycan region, the V3-glycan region, and the gp41 membrane proximal external region (MPER), against a panel of 200 acute/early clade C HIV-1 Env pseudoviruses. A mathematical model was developed that predicted neutralization by a subset of experimentally evaluated bnAb combinations with high accuracy. Using this model, we performed a comprehensive and systematic comparison of the predicted neutralizing activity of over 1,600 possible double, triple, and quadruple bnAb combinations. The most promising bnAb combinations were identified based not only on breadth and potency of neutralization, but also other relevant measures, such as the extent of complete neutralization and instantaneous inhibitory potential (IIP). By this set of criteria, triple and quadruple combinations of bnAbs were identified that were significantly more effective than the best double combinations, and further improved the probability of having multiple bnAbs simultaneously active against a given virus, a requirement that may be critical for countering escape in vivo. These results provide a rationale for advancing bnAb combinations with the best in vitro predictors of success into clinical trials for both the prevention and treatment of HIV-1 infection.

A strongly selected mutation in the HIV-1 genome is independent of T cell responses and neutralizing antibodies.

BACKGROUND: Mutations rapidly accumulate in the HIV-1 genome after infection. Some of those mutations are selected by host immune responses and often cause viral fitness losses. This study is to investigate whether strongly selected mutations that are not associated with immune responses result in fitness losses. RESULTS: Strongly selected mutations were identified by analyzing 5'-half HIV-1 genome (gag/pol) sequences from longitudinal samples of subject CH0131. The K43R mutation in the gag gene was first detected at day 91 post screening and was fixed in the viral population at day 273 while the synonymous N323tc mutation was first detected at day 177 and fixed at day 670. No conventional or cryptic T cell responses were detected against either mutation sites by ELISpot analysis. However, when fitness costs of both mutations were measured by introducing each mutation into their cognate transmitted/founder (T/F) viral genome, the K43R mutation caused a significant fitness loss while the N323tc mutation had little impact on viral fitness. CONCLUSIONS: The rapid fixation, the lack of detectable immune responses and the significant fitness cost of the K43R mutation suggests that it was strongly selected by host factors other than T cell responses and neutralizing antibodies.

Single-Genome Sequencing of Hepatitis C Virus in Donor-Recipient Pairs Distinguishes Modes and Models of Virus Transmission and Early Diversification.

UNLABELLED: Despite the recent development of highly effective anti-hepatitis C virus (HCV) drugs, the global burden of this pathogen remains immense. Control or eradication of HCV will likely require the broad application of antiviral drugs and development of an effective vaccine. A precise molecular identification of transmitted/founder (T/F) HCV genomes that lead to productive clinical infection could play a critical role in vaccine research, as it has for HIV-1. However, the replication schema of these two RNA viruses differ substantially, as do viral responses to innate and adaptive host defenses. These differences raise questions as to the certainty of T/F HCV genome inferences, particularly in cases where multiple closely related sequence lineages have been observed. To clarify these issues and distinguish between competing models of early HCV diversification, we examined seven cases of acute HCV infection in humans and chimpanzees, including three examples of virus transmission between linked donors and recipients. Using single-genome sequencing (SGS) of plasma vRNA, we found that inferred T/F sequences in recipients were identical to viral sequences in their respective donors. Early in infection, HCV genomes generally evolved according to a simple model of random evolution where the coalescent corresponded to the T/F sequence. Closely related sequence lineages could be explained by high multiplicity infection from a donor whose viral sequences had undergone a pretransmission bottleneck due to treatment, immune selection, or recent infection. These findings validate SGS, together with mathematical modeling and phylogenetic analysis, as a novel strategy to infer T/F HCV genome sequences. IMPORTANCE: Despite the recent development of highly effective, interferon-sparing anti-hepatitis C virus (HCV) drugs, the global burden of this pathogen remains immense. Control or eradication of HCV will likely require the broad application of antiviral drugs and the development of an effective vaccine, which could be facilitated by a precise molecular identification of transmitted/founder (T/F) viral genomes and their progeny. We used single-genome sequencing to show that inferred HCV T/F sequences in recipients were identical to viral sequences in their respective donors and that viral genomes generally evolved early in infection according to a simple model of random sequence evolution. Altogether, the findings validate T/F genome inferences and illustrate how T/F sequence identification can illuminate studies of HCV transmission, immunopathogenesis, drug resistance development, and vaccine protection, including sieving effects on breakthrough virus strains.

Human APOBEC3 induced mutation of human immunodeficiency virus type-1 contributes to adaptation and evolution in natural infection.

Human APOBEC3 proteins are cytidine deaminases that contribute broadly to innate immunity through the control of exogenous retrovirus replication and endogenous retroelement retrotransposition. As an intrinsic antiretroviral defense mechanism, APOBEC3 proteins induce extensive guanosine-to-adenosine (G-to-A) mutagenesis and inhibit synthesis of nascent human immunodeficiency virus-type 1 (HIV-1) cDNA. Human APOBEC3 proteins have additionally been proposed to induce infrequent, potentially non-lethal G-to-A mutations that make subtle contributions to sequence diversification of the viral genome and adaptation though acquisition of beneficial mutations. Using single-cycle HIV-1 infections in culture and highly parallel DNA sequencing, we defined trinucleotide contexts of the edited sites for APOBEC3D, APOBEC3F, APOBEC3G, and APOBEC3H. We then compared these APOBEC3 editing contexts with the patterns of G-to-A mutations in HIV-1 DNA in cells obtained sequentially from ten patients with primary HIV-1 infection. Viral substitutions were highest in the preferred trinucleotide contexts of the edited sites for the APOBEC3 deaminases. Consistent with the effects of immune selection, amino acid changes accumulated at the APOBEC3 editing contexts located within human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-appropriate epitopes that are known or predicted to enable peptide binding. Thus, APOBEC3 activity may induce mutations that influence the genetic diversity and adaptation of the HIV-1 population in natural infection.

Impact of clade, geography, and age of the epidemic on HIV-1 neutralization by antibodies.

UNLABELLED: Neutralizing antibodies (nAbs) are a high priority for vaccines that aim to prevent the acquisition of HIV-1 infection. Vaccine effectiveness will depend on the extent to which induced antibodies neutralize the global diversity of circulating HIV-1 variants. Using large panels of genetically and geographically diverse HIV-1 Env-pseudotyped viruses and chronic infection plasma samples, we unambiguously show that cross-clade nAb responses are commonly induced in response to infection by any virus clade. Nonetheless, neutralization was significantly greater when the plasma clade matched the clade of the virus being tested. This within-clade advantage was diminished in older, more-diverse epidemics in southern Africa, the United States, and Europe compared to more recent epidemics in Asia. It was most pronounced for circulating recombinant form (CRF) 07_BC, which is common in China and is the least-divergent lineage studied; this was followed by the slightly more diverse Asian CRF01_AE. We found no evidence that transmitted/founder viruses are generally more susceptible to neutralization and are therefore easier targets for vaccination than chronic viruses. Features of the gp120 V1V2 loop, in particular, length, net charge, and number of N-linked glycans, were associated with Env susceptibility and plasma neutralization potency in a manner consistent with neutralization escape being a force that drives viral diversification and plasma neutralization breadth. The overall susceptibility of Envs and potencies of plasma samples were highly predictive of the neutralization outcome of any single virus-plasma combination. These findings highlight important considerations for the design and testing of candidate HIV-1 vaccines that aim to elicit effective nAbs. IMPORTANCE: An effective HIV-1 vaccine will need to overcome the extraordinary variability of the virus, which is most pronounced in the envelope glycoproteins (Env), which are the sole targets for neutralizing antibodies (nAbs). Distinct genetic lineages, or clades, of HIV-1 occur in different locales that may require special consideration when designing and testing vaccines candidates. We show that nAb responses to HIV-1 infection are generally active across clades but are most potent within clades. Because effective vaccine-induced nAbs are likely to share these properties, optimal coverage of a particular clade or combination of clades may require clade-matched immunogens. Optimal within-clade coverage might be easier to achieve in regions such as China and Thailand, where the epidemic is more recent and the virus less diverse than in southern Africa, the United States, and Europe. Finally, features of the first and second hypervariable regions of gp120 (V1V2) may be critical for optimal vaccine design.

Neutron Electric Dipole Moment and Tensor Charges from Lattice QCD.

We present lattice QCD results on the neutron tensor charges including, for the first time, a simultaneous extrapolation in the lattice spacing, volume, and light quark masses to the physical point in the continuum limit. We find that the "disconnected" contribution is smaller than the statistical error in the "connected" contribution. Our estimates in the modified minimal subtraction scheme at 2 GeV, including all systematics, are g_{T}^{d-u}=1.020(76), g_{T}^{d}=0.774(66), g_{T}^{u}=-0.233(28), and g_{T}^{s}=0.008(9). The flavor diagonal charges determine the size of the neutron electric dipole moment (EDM) induced by quark EDMs that are generated in many new scenarios of CP violation beyond the standard model. We use our results to derive model-independent bounds on the EDMs of light quarks and update the EDM phenomenology in split supersymmetry with gaugino mass unification, finding a stringent upper bound of d_{n}<4×10^{-28} e cm for the neutron EDM in this scenario.

Preexisting compensatory amino acids compromise fitness costs of a HIV-1 T cell escape mutation.

BACKGROUND: Fitness costs and slower disease progression are associated with a cytolytic T lymphocyte (CTL) escape mutation T242N in Gag in HIV-1-infected individuals carrying HLA-B*57/5801 alleles. However, the impact of different context in diverse HIV-1 strains on the fitness costs due to the T242N mutation has not been well characterized. To better understand the extent of fitness costs of the T242N mutation and the repair of fitness loss through compensatory amino acids, we investigated its fitness impact in different transmitted/founder (T/F) viruses. RESULTS: The T242N mutation resulted in various levels of fitness loss in four different T/F viruses. However, the fitness costs were significantly compromised by preexisting compensatory amino acids in (Isoleucine at position 247) or outside (glutamine at position 219) the CTL epitope. Moreover, the transmitted T242N escape mutant in subject CH131 was as fit as the revertant N242T mutant and the elimination of the compensatory amino acid I247 in the T/F viral genome resulted in significant fitness cost, suggesting the fitness loss caused by the T242N mutation had been fully repaired in the donor at transmission. Analysis of the global circulating HIV-1 sequences in the Los Alamos HIV Sequence Database showed a high prevalence of compensatory amino acids for the T242N mutation and other T cell escape mutations. CONCLUSIONS: Our results show that the preexisting compensatory amino acids in the majority of circulating HIV-1 strains could significantly compromise the fitness loss due to CTL escape mutations and thus increase challenges for T cell based vaccines.

Indian Siddis: African descendants with Indian admixture.

The Siddis (Afro-Indians) are a tribal population whose members live in coastal Karnataka, Gujarat, and in some parts of Andhra Pradesh. Historical records indicate that the Portuguese brought the Siddis to India from Africa about 300-500 years ago; however, there is little information about their more precise ancestral origins. Here, we perform a genome-wide survey to understand the population history of the Siddis. Using hundreds of thousands of autosomal markers, we show that they have inherited ancestry from Africans, Indians, and possibly Europeans (Portuguese). Additionally, analyses of the uniparental (Y-chromosomal and mitochondrial DNA) markers indicate that the Siddis trace their ancestry to Bantu speakers from sub-Saharan Africa. We estimate that the admixture between the African ancestors of the Siddis and neighboring South Asian groups probably occurred in the past eight generations (∼200 years ago), consistent with historical records.

Quantifying the diversification of hepatitis C virus (HCV) during primary infection: estimates of the in vivo mutation rate.

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is present in the host with multiple variants generated by its error prone RNA-dependent RNA polymerase. Little is known about the initial viral diversification and the viral life cycle processes that influence diversity. We studied the diversification of HCV during acute infection in 17 plasma donors, with frequent sampling early in infection. To analyze these data, we developed a new stochastic model of the HCV life cycle. We found that the accumulation of mutations is surprisingly slow: at 30 days, the viral population on average is still 46% identical to its transmitted viral genome. Fitting the model to the sequence data, we estimate the median in vivo viral mutation rate is 2.5×10⁻5 mutations per nucleotide per genome replication (range 1.6-6.2×10⁻5), about 5-fold lower than previous estimates. To confirm these results we analyzed the frequency of stop codons (N = 10) among all possible non-sense mutation targets (M = 898,335), and found a mutation rate of 2.8-3.2×10⁻5, consistent with the estimate from the dynamical model. The slow accumulation of mutations is consistent with slow turnover of infected cells and replication complexes within infected cells. This slow turnover is also inferred from the viral load kinetics. Our estimated mutation rate, which is similar to that of other RNA viruses (e.g., HIV and influenza), is also compatible with the accumulation of substitutions seen in HCV at the population level. Our model identifies the relevant processes (long-lived cells and slow turnover of replication complexes) and parameters involved in determining the rate of HCV diversification.

Elucidation of hepatitis C virus transmission and early diversification by single genome sequencing.

A precise molecular identification of transmitted hepatitis C virus (HCV) genomes could illuminate key aspects of transmission biology, immunopathogenesis and natural history. We used single genome sequencing of 2,922 half or quarter genomes from plasma viral RNA to identify transmitted/founder (T/F) viruses in 17 subjects with acute community-acquired HCV infection. Sequences from 13 of 17 acute subjects, but none of 14 chronic controls, exhibited one or more discrete low diversity viral lineages. Sequences within each lineage generally revealed a star-like phylogeny of mutations that coalesced to unambiguous T/F viral genomes. Numbers of transmitted viruses leading to productive clinical infection were estimated to range from 1 to 37 or more (median = 4). Four acutely infected subjects showed a distinctly different pattern of virus diversity that deviated from a star-like phylogeny. In these cases, empirical analysis and mathematical modeling suggested high multiplicity virus transmission from individuals who themselves were acutely infected or had experienced a virus population bottleneck due to antiviral drug therapy. These results provide new quantitative and qualitative insights into HCV transmission, revealing for the first time virus-host interactions that successful vaccines or treatment interventions will need to overcome. Our findings further suggest a novel experimental strategy for identifying full-length T/F genomes for proteome-wide analyses of HCV biology and adaptation to antiviral drug or immune pressures.