Differential impact of quarantine policies for recovered COVID-19 cases in England: a case cohort study of surveillance data, June to December 2020.

BACKGROUND: From 12th March 2020, individuals in England were advised to quarantine in their home if a household member tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. A mandatory isolation period of 10 days was introduced on 28th September 2020 and applied to all individuals with COVID-19. We assessed the frequency, timing, and characteristics of recovered COVID-19 cases requiring subsequent quarantine episodes due to household re-exposure. METHODS: In this case cohort study, all laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases notified in England (29th June to 28th December 2020) were analysed to identify consecutive household case(s). Multivariable logistic regression was used to determine associations between case characteristics and need to quarantine following recent infection (within 28 days of diagnosis). RESULTS: Among 1,651,550 cases resident in private dwellings and Houses of Multiple Occupancy (HMOs), 744,548 (45.1%) were the only case in their home and 56,179 (3.4%) were succeeded by further household cases diagnosed within 11-28 days of their diagnosis. Of 1,641,412 cases arising in private homes, the likelihood of further household cases was highest for Bangladeshi (aOR = 2.20, 95% CI = 2.10-2.31) and Pakistani (aOR = 2.15, 95% CI = 2.08-2.22) individuals compared to White British, as well as among young people (17-24y vs. 25-64y; aOR = 1.19, 95% CI = 1.16-1.22), men (vs. women; aOR = 1.06, 95% CI = 1.04-1.08), London residents (vs. Yorkshire and Humber; aOR = 1.57, 95% CI = 1.52-1.63) and areas of high deprivation (IMD 1 vs. 10; aOR = 1.13, 95% CI = 1.09-1.19). CONCLUSION: Policies requiring quarantine on re-exposure differentially impact some of the most disadvantaged populations. Quarantine exemption for recently recovered individuals could mitigate the socioeconomic impact of responses to COVID-19 or similar infectious disease outbreaks.

Paediatric acute hepatitis of unknown aetiology: a national investigation and adenoviraemia case-control study in the UK.

BACKGROUND: An increase in acute severe hepatitis of unknown aetiology in previously healthy children in the UK in March, 2022, triggered global case-finding. We aimed to describe UK epidemiological investigations of cases and their possible causes. METHODS: We actively surveilled unexplained paediatric acute hepatitis (transaminase >500 international units per litre) in children younger than 16 years presenting since Jan 1, 2022, through notifications from paediatricians, microbiologists, and paediatric liver units; we collected demographic, clinical, and exposure information. Then, we did a case-control study to investigate the association between adenoviraemia and other viruses and case-status using multivariable Firth penalised logistic regression. Cases aged 1-10 years and tested for adenovirus were included and compared with controls (ie, children admitted to hospital with an acute non-hepatitis illness who had residual blood samples collected between Jan 1 and May 28, 2022, and without known laboratory-confirmed diagnosis or previous adenovirus testing). Controls were frequency-matched on sex, age band, sample months, and nation or supra-region with randomised selection. We explored temporal associations between frequency of circulating viruses identified through routine laboratory pathogen surveillance and occurrence of cases by linear regression. SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity of cases was examined against residual serum from age-matched clinical comparison groups. FINDINGS: Between Jan 1 and July 4, 2022, 274 cases were identified (median age 3 years [IQR 2-5]). 131 (48%) participants were male, 142 (52%) were female, and one (<1%) participant had sex data unknown. Jaundice (195 [83%] of 235) and gastrointestinal symptoms (202 [91%] of 222) were common. 15 (5%) children required liver transplantation and none died. Adenovirus was detected in 172 (68%) of 252 participants tested, regardless of sample type; 137 (63%) of 218 samples were positive for adenovirus in the blood. For cases that were successfully genotyped, 58 (81%) of 72 had Ad41F, and 57 were identified as positive via blood samples (six of these were among participants who had undergone a transplant). In the case-control analysis, adenoviraemia was associated with hepatitis case-status (adjusted OR 37·4 [95% CI 15·5-90·3]). Increases in the detection of adenovirus from faecal samples, but not other infectious agents, in routine laboratory pathogen surveillance correlated with hepatitis cases 4 weeks later, which independently suggested an association (ß 0·06 [95% CI 0·02-0·11]). No association was identified for SARS-CoV-2 antibody seropositivity. INTERPRETATION: We observed an association between adenovirus 41F viraemia and paediatric acute hepatitis. These results can inform diagnostic testing recommendations, clinical management, and exploratory in vitro or clinical studies of paediatric acute hepatitis of unknown aetiology. The role of potential co-factors, including other viruses and host susceptibility, requires further investigation. FUNDING: None.

First trimester sex hormone-binding globulin and subsequent development of preeclampsia or other adverse pregnancy outcomes.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether first trimester maternal serum sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) concentrations are altered in women who subsequently develop preeclampsia or other pregnancy complications. POPULATION: Women undergoing first trimester combined ultrasound and biochemical screening for chromosomal anomalies. We searched the database and identified 32 pregnancies resulting in miscarriage, 64 pregnancies with preexisting or gestational diabetes mellitus, 107 with fetal growth restriction, 103 with preeclampsia, 64 with pregnancy-induced hypertension, and 26 with spontaneous preterm delivery. We also selected 400 controls from among the population of pregnancies that had a delivery of a normal baby with no pregnancy complications. METHODS: Maternal serum SHBG concentrations were measured retrospectively using a competitive chemiluminescent immunoassay. The levels between those with normal outcome and those resulting in adverse outcome were compared. RESULTS: The median maternal serum SHBG concentration was not significantly different from controls, in those that subsequently developed preeclampsia (median MoM 1.05), non-proteinuric hypertension (median MoM 0.94) or preterm delivery (median MoM 1.15). The levels were significantly lower in those with diabetes (median MoM, 0.81 p=0.0005) and those pregnancies resulting in miscarriage (median MoM 0.80, p=0.008). CONCLUSION: First trimester maternal serum SHBG concentrations are no different from controls in women who subsequently develop preeclampsia, pregnancy-induced hypertension, fetal growth restriction, or preterm delivery. Levels are reduced in those who subsequently miscarry or in those presenting with diabetes.

Prospective first-trimester screening for trisomy 21 in 30,564 pregnancies.

OBJECTIVE: This study was undertaken to evaluate the performance of a 1-stop clinic for first-trimester assessment of risk (OSCAR) for trisomy 21 by a combination of maternal age, fetal nuchal translucency (NT) thickness, and maternal serum-free ss- human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG) and pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A). STUDY DESIGN: OSCAR was carried out in 30,564 pregnancies at 11 to 13 + 6 weeks. Patient-specific risks for trisomy 21 and detection and false-positive rates were calculated. RESULTS: The median maternal age was 34 (range 15-49) years. Chromosomal abnormalities were identified in 330 pregnancies, including 196 cases of trisomy 21. The estimated risk for trisomy 21 was 1 in 300 or greater in 7.5% of the normal pregnancies, in 93.4% of those with trisomy 21 and in 88.8% of those with other chromosomal defects. CONCLUSION: The most effective method of screening for chromosomal defects is by first-trimester fetal NT and maternal serum biochemistry.

Maternal weight correction of maternal serum PAPP-A and free beta-hCG MoM when screening for trisomy 21 in the first trimester of pregnancy.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the suitability of either the log-linear or reciprocal-linear regression procedure for maternal weight correction of biochemical marker MoMs in the first trimester. METHODS: Data from two prospective first-trimester OSCAR screening programmes including 32,010 women with first-trimester maternal serum-free beta-hCG and PAPP-A measured by the Kryptor analyser was analysed by regression analysis to provide parameters for the log-linear and reciprocal-linear MoM correction procedures. Assessment was made by goodness of fit to the data. The impact on detection rate and false-positive rate of the different correction procedures was assessed using statistical modelling with biochemical markers alone. RESULTS: Both log-linear and reciprocal-linear correction were shown to fit the data well. For free beta-hCG, the log-linear procedure was marginally superior to the reciprocal-linear procedure (r2=0.986 v 0.980), whilst for PAPP-A the reciprocal-linear procedure was marginally better (r2=0.991 v 0.985). Log-linear correction reduced the variance for both markers more than did the reciprocal-linear procedure. For free beta-hCG, the sd was reduced from 0.2675 to 0.2605 and for PAPP-A, it was reduced from 0.2545 to 0.2336. Correcting for maternal weight was shown to reduce the population false-positive rate from 7.0 to 6.5%, whilst maintaining the same detection rate at a risk cut-off of 1 in a 100. At individual levels, a two-fold variation in risk was demonstrated depending upon the individual's weight. CONCLUSIONS: To provide accurate individual patient-specific risks for trisomy 21, maternal weight must be taken into account and should be a mandatory data item for screening programmes. Maternal weight correction in the first trimester using free beta-hCG and PAPP-A can be best achieved using the log-linear procedure.

The impact of correcting for smoking status when screening for chromosomal anomalies using maternal serum biochemistry and fetal nuchal translucency thickness in the first trimester of pregnancy.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the influence of cigarette smoking status on maternal serum free beta-hCG, PAPP-A and fetal nuchal translucency (NT) thickness at 11 to 14 weeks of gestation in a large cohort of women screened prospectively for chromosomal anomalies. METHODS: Information on maternal cigarette smoking status, maternal age, maternal serum biochemical marker levels and fetal NT were collected from the prenatal screening computer records in two OSCAR screening centres. Data was available from 32,730 unaffected pregnancies and from 124 with Down syndrome. Statistical analysis of the marker levels in the smoking and non-smoking group were carried out. The impact on false-positive rate of correcting for smoking status was assessed from a modelling exercise. RESULTS: Prevalence of smoking was significantly affected by maternal age with an overall incidence of 11.5%, which varied from 35% in women under 20 to 7% in women over 35. In the unaffected population, the median free beta-hCG MoM was significantly lower in the smoking group (0.97 vs 1.00) as was that for PAPP-A (0.84 vs 1.02). The standard deviation of the log(10) MoM free beta-hCG was lower in the smoking group and that for PAPP-A was higher in the smoking group. The difference in median marker levels did not seem to be related to the number of cigarettes smoked per day. In the group with Down syndrome, the median MoM free beta-hCG was not significantly different in the smokers (1.69 vs 1.86) as was that for PAPP-A (0.53 vs 0.57). Fetal delta NT was not significantly different in the unaffected smokers (0.11 vs 0.0 mm) or in those with Down syndrome (1.96 vs 2.25 mm). In the smoking group, when screening using maternal serum biochemistry and age alone, the false-positive rate was 6.17%, compared to 4.67% in an age-matched group of non-smokers. Correcting for smoking status by dividing the measured MoM by the median found in the smoking group resulted in the false-positive rate falling to 4.40%. When screening using NT, maternal serum biochemistry and age, the false-positive rate in smokers was 4.48%, which reduced to 3.46% after correction-in line with the 3.76% in the non-smoking group. The impact on detection rate was too small to be accurately measured. CONCLUSIONS: The impact of smoking on first-trimester biochemical marker levels does not seem to be dose related. Whilst correcting first-trimester biochemical markers for maternal smoking status has little impact at the population level for detection rates, a considerable reduction in false-positive rate can be achieved, reducing the level to that seen in non-smokers. However, the effect on the individual patient-specific risk can be substantial and could certainly make a difference to the patient's decision on whether to have an invasive test.

Integrated ultrasound and biochemical screening for trisomy 21 using fetal nuchal translucency, absent fetal nasal bone, free beta-hCG and PAPP-A at 11 to 14 weeks.

BACKGROUND: Screening for trisomy 21 by a combination of maternal age, fetal nuchal translucency (NT) thickness and maternal serum free beta-hCG and pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A) at 11 to 14 weeks of gestation is associated with a detection rate of 90% for a false-positive rate of 5%. Recent evidence suggests that in about 70% of fetuses with trisomy 21, the nasal bone is not visible at the 11th- to 14th-week scan (Cicero et al., 2001). The aim of this study was to examine whether fetal NT thickness and the level of maternal serum biochemical markers is independent of the presence or absence of the nasal bone, and to estimate the performance of a screening test that integrates the two sonographic and the two biochemical markers. METHODS: This was a retrospective case-control study comprising 100 trisomy 21 and 400 chromosomally normal singleton pregnancies at 11 to 14 weeks of gestation. Ultrasound examination was carried out for measurement of fetal NT and assessment of the presence or absence of the fetal nasal bone. Maternal serum free beta-hCG and PAPP-A were measured using the Kryptor rapid random-access immunoassay analyser (Brahms Diagnostica GmbH, Berlin). The distribution of fetal NT, maternal serum free beta-hCG and PAPP-A in trisomy 21 fetuses with absent and present nasal bone was examined. RESULTS: The nasal bone was absent in 69 and present in 31 of the trisomy 21 fetuses. There were no significant differences in median maternal age, median gestational age, NT delta, free beta-hCG MoM and PAPP-A MoM in trisomy 21 fetuses with and without a visible nasal bone. For a false-positive rate of 5%, it was estimated that screening with the four markers in combination with maternal age would be associated with a detection rate of 97%. For a false-positive rate of 0.5%, the detection rate was 90.5%. CONCLUSIONS: An integrated sonographic and biochemical test at 11 to 14 weeks can potentially identify about 90% of trisomy 21 fetuses for a false-positive rate of 0.5%.