Training the next generation of pharmacometric modelers: a multisector perspective.

The current demand for pharmacometricians outmatches the supply provided by academic institutions and considerable investments are made to develop the competencies of these scientists on-the-job. Even with the observed increase in academic programs related to pharmacometrics, this need is unlikely to change in the foreseeable future, as the demand and scope of pharmacometrics applications keep expanding. Further, the field of pharmacometrics is changing. The field largely started when Lewis Sheiner and Stuart Beal published their seminal papers on population pharmacokinetics in the late 1970's and early 1980's and has continued to grow in impact and use since its inception. Physiological-based pharmacokinetics and systems pharmacology have grown rapidly in scope and impact in the last decade and machine learning is just on the horizon. While all these methodologies are categorized as pharmacometrics, no one person can be an expert in everything. So how do you train future pharmacometricians? Leading experts in academia, industry, contract research organizations, clinical medicine, and regulatory gave their opinions on how to best train future pharmacometricians. Their opinions were collected and synthesized to create some general recommendations.

Pharmacokinetic comparability between two populations using nonlinear mixed effect models: a Monte Carlo study.

'Are two populations the same or are they different' is a question that is often faced in clinical pharmacology trials e.g., a pharmacokinetic trial studying a particular drug in racially different groups. To address this question, concentration-time data were simulated from a reference and test population, where in the latter the clearance, sample size, and sampling design were systematically varied. It was of interest to determine whether the estimates of clearance from the two groups were the same or different. Two approaches were used to estimate the empirical Bayes estimates (EBEs) for clearance. One approach developed a population pharmacokinetic model for the reference population and the EBEs for the reference population were estimated from this model. The parameters of the reference population were fixed to their maximum likelihood estimates. The model was then applied to the test population dataset to estimate the EBEs of the test population using the MAXEVAL = 0 option in NONMEM. A second approach, the theta approach, combined the reference and test datasets into a single dataset and used population as a covariate in the model; the EBEs were estimated from this combined model. The power and type I error rate of each approach were calculated for each treatment combination using a variety of statistical tests to determine whether there was a difference in the distribution of the EBEs in the reference population compared to the test population. Our results suggest that either MAXEVAL or theta approaches can be used with informative sampling designs. In addition to reasonable power and type I error, both approaches gave almost identical results under a dense sampling design. To statistically compare the distribution of EBEs of pharmacokinetic parameters from a reference group to that of a test group, a T-test and DTS eCDF test are equally useful.

Prospective approaches to gene therapy computational modeling - spotlight on viral gene therapy.

Clinical studies have found there still exists a lack of gene therapy dose-toxicity and dose-efficacy data that causes gene therapy dose selection to remain elusive. Model informed drug development (MIDD) has become a standard tool implemented throughout the discovery, development, and approval of pharmaceutical therapies, and has the potential to inform dose-toxicity and dose-efficacy relationships to support gene therapy dose selection. Despite this potential, MIDD approaches for gene therapy remain immature and require standardization to be useful for gene therapy clinical programs. With the goal to advance MIDD approaches for gene therapy, in this review we first provide an overview of gene therapy types and how they differ from a bioanalytical, formulation, route of administration, and regulatory standpoint. With this biological and regulatory background, we propose how MIDD can be advanced for AAV-based gene therapies by utilizing physiological based pharmacokinetic modeling and quantitative systems pharmacology to holistically inform AAV and target protein dynamics following dosing. We discuss how this proposed model, allowing for in-depth exploration of AAV pharmacology, could be the key the field needs to treat these unmet disease populations.

Physiologically-based pharmacokinetic modeling to predict drug-drug interaction of enzalutamide with combined P-gp and CYP3A substrates.

Enzalutamide is known to strongly induce cytochrome P450 3A4 (CYP3A4). Furthermore, enzalutamide showed induction and inhibition of P-glycoprotein (P-gp) in in vitro studies. A clinical drug-drug interaction (DDI) study between enzalutamide and digoxin, a typical P-gp substrate, suggested enzalutamide has weak inhibitory effect on P-gp substrates. Direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs), such as apixaban and rivaroxaban, are dual substrates of CYP3A4 and P-gp, and hence it is recommended to avoid co-administration of these DOACs with combined P-gp and strong CYP3A inducers. Enzalutamide's net effect on P-gp and CYP3A for apixaban and rivaroxaban plasma exposures is of interest to physicians who treat patients for venous thromboembolism with prostate cancer. Accordingly, a physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) analysis was performed to predict the magnitude of DDI on apixaban and rivaroxaban exposures in the presence of 160 mg once-daily dosing of enzalutamide. The PBPK models of enzalutamide and M2, a major metabolite of enzalutamide which also has potential to induce CYP3A and P-gp and inhibit P-gp, were developed and verified as perpetrators of CYP3A-and P-gp-mediated interaction. Simulation results predicted a 31% decrease in AUC and no change in Cmax for apixaban and a 45% decrease in AUC and a 25% decrease in Cmax for rivaroxaban when 160 mg multiple doses of enzalutamide were co-administered. In summary, enzalutamide is considered to decrease apixaban and rivaroxaban exposure through the combined effects of CYP3A induction and net P-gp inhibition. Concurrent use of these drugs warrants careful monitoring for efficacy and safety.

The application of extreme value theory to pharmacometrics.

Clinical trials are often analyzed by examining the means, e.g., what is the mean treatment effect or what is the mean treatment difference, but there are times when analysis of the maximums (or minimums) are of interest. For instance, what is the highest heart rate that could be observed or what the smallest treatment effect that could be expected? While inference on the means is based on the central limit theorem, the corresponding theorem for maximums or minimums is the Fisher-Tippett theorem, also called the extreme value theorem (EVT). This manuscript will introduce EVT to pharmacometricians, particularly block maxima analysis and peak over threshold analysis, and provide examples for how it can be applied to pharmacometric data, particularly the analysis of pharmacokinetics and ECG safety data, like QTcF intervals.

Pharmacokinetics of a Pediatric Tribendimidine Dose-Finding Study To Treat Hookworm Infection in African Children.

Tribendimidine is a broad-spectrum anthelminthic available in China, which is currently being pursued for U.S. Food and Drug Administration approval for soil-transmitted helminth infections. Pharmacokinetic (PK) studies with tribendimidine in children, the main target group for treatment programs, have not been conducted to date. In the framework of a dose-ranging study in hookworm-infected school-aged children in Côte d'Ivoire, children were treated with either 100, 200, or 400 mg tribendimidine. Dried blood spot samples were collected up to 22 h after treatment. The active metabolite, deacetylated amidantel (dADT) and its metabolite acylated dADT (adADT) were quantified using liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry. PK parameters were calculated using a noncompartmental model, and univariate logistic regression was applied using maximal blood concentrations (Cmax) and area under the blood concentration-time curve for 0 to 22 h (AUC0-22) as predictors of drug efficacy. Dried blood spot samples of 101 children were analyzed. We observed a less than proportional and proportional exposure in dADT's median Cmax and AUC0-22, respectively, following administration of 100 mg (Cmax = 853 ng/ml; AUC0-22 = 3,019 h · ng/ml) and 400 mg (Cmax = 2,275 ng/ml; AUC0-22 = 12,530 h · ng/ml) tribendimidine. There were large, dose-independent variations in the time to Cmax (Tmax) and ratios of dADT to adADT. We did not detect an influence of Cmax or AUC0-22 of dADT or adADT on drug efficacy or adverse events. Since our study population was bearing hookworm infection of mainly low intensity, additional studies with heavy intensity infections might be required to confirm this observation.

Extrapolation of praziquantel pharmacokinetics to a pediatric population: a cautionary tale.

L-praziquantel (PZQ) pharmacokinetic data were analyzed from two relative bioavailability Phase 1 studies in adult, healthy subjects with two new oral dispersion tablet (ODT) formulations of L-PZQ administered under various combinations of co-administration with food, water, and/or crushing. Linear mixed effects models adequately characterized the noncompartmental estimates of the pharmacokinetic profiles in both studies. Dose, food, and formulation were found to significantly affect L-PZQ exposure in both studies. The model for AUC was then extrapolated to children 2-5 years old accounting for enzyme maturation and weight. The predicted exposures were compared to an external Phase 1 study conducted by the Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute using a currently marketed formulation (Cesol 600 mg immediate-release tablets) and found to be substantially lower than observed. A root cause analysis was completed to identify the reason for failure of the models. Various scenarios were proposed and tested. Two possible reasons for the failure were identified. One reason was that the model did not account for the reduced hepatic clearance seen in patients compared to the healthy volunteer population used to build the model. The second possible reason was that PZQ absorption appears sensitive to meal composition and the model did not account for differences in meals between a standardized Phase 1 unit and clinical sites in Africa. Further studies are needed to confirm our hypotheses.

Correction to: Scientific white paper on concentration-QTc modeling.

The original version of this article unfortunately contained an error in Equation 1 under the section "Pre-specified linear mixed effects model". The correct equation has given below.

Scientific white paper on concentration-QTc modeling.

The International Council for Harmonisation revised the E14 guideline through the questions and answers process to allow concentration-QTc (C-QTc) modeling to be used as the primary analysis for assessing the QTc interval prolongation risk of new drugs. A well-designed and conducted QTc assessment based on C-QTc modeling in early phase 1 studies can be an alternative approach to a thorough QT study for some drugs to reliably exclude clinically relevant QTc effects. This white paper provides recommendations on how to plan and conduct a definitive QTc assessment of a drug using C-QTc modeling in early phase clinical pharmacology and thorough QT studies. Topics included are: important study design features in a phase 1 study; modeling objectives and approach; exploratory plots; the pre-specified linear mixed effects model; general principles for model development and evaluation; and expectations for modeling analysis plans and reports. The recommendations are based on current best modeling practices, scientific literature and personal experiences of the authors. These recommendations are expected to evolve as their implementation during drug development provides additional data and with advances in analytical methodology.

Exposure-Response Relationships for Isavuconazole in Patients with Invasive Aspergillosis and Other Filamentous Fungi.

Isavuconazole, the active moiety of the water-soluble prodrug isavuconazonium sulfate, is a triazole antifungal agent for the treatment of invasive fungal infections. The purpose of this analysis was to characterize the isavuconazole exposure-response relationship for measures of efficacy and safety in patients with invasive aspergillosis and infections by other filamentous fungi from the SECURE clinical trial. Two hundred thirty-one patients who received the clinical dosing regimen and had exposure parameters were included in the analysis. The primary drug exposure parameters included were predicted trough steady-state plasma concentrations, predicted trough concentrations after 7 and 14 days of drug administration, and area under the curve estimated at steady state (AUCss). The exposure parameters were analyzed against efficacy endpoints that included all-cause mortality through day 42 in the intent-to-treat (ITT) and modified ITT populations, data review committee (DRC)-adjudicated overall response at end of treatment (EOT), and DRC-adjudicated clinical response at EOT. The safety endpoints analyzed were elevated or abnormal alanine aminotransferase, increased aspartate aminotransferase, and a combination of the two. The endpoints were analyzed using logistic regression models. No statistically significant relationship (P > 0.05) was found between isavuconazole exposure and either efficacy or safety endpoints. The lack of association between exposure and efficacy indicates that the isavuconazole exposures achieved by clinical dosing were appropriate for treating the infecting organisms in the SECURE study and that increases in alanine or aspartate aminotransferase were not related to increase in exposures. Without a clear relationship, there is no current clinical evidence for recommending routine therapeutic drug monitoring for isavuconazole.

Estimation of QT interval prolongation through model-averaging.

The current method to analyze concentration-QT interval data, which is based on predictions conditional on a best model, fails to take into account the uncertainty of the model. Previous studies have suggested that failure to take into account model uncertainty using a best model approach can result in confidence intervals that are overly optimistic and may be too narrow. Theoretically, more realistic estimates are obtained using model-averaging where the overall point estimate and confidence interval are a weighted-average from a set of candidate models, the weights of which are equal to each model's Akaike weight. Monte Carlo simulation was used to determine the degree of narrowness in the confidence interval for the degree of QT prolongation under a single ascending dose and thorough QT trial design. Results showed that model averaging performed as well as the best model approach under most conditions with no numeric advantage to using a model averaging approach. No difference was observed in the coverage of the confidence intervals when the best model and model averaging was done by AIC, AICc, or BIC, although in certain circumstances the coverage of the confidence interval themselves tended to be too narrow when using BIC. Modelers can continue to use the best model approach for concentration-QT modeling with confidence, although model averaging may offer more face validity, may be of value in cases where there is uncertainty or misspecification in the best model, and be more palatable to a non-technical reviewer than the best model approach.

Effect of correlation on covariate selection in linear and nonlinear mixed effect models.

The effect of correlation among covariates on covariate selection was examined with linear and nonlinear mixed effect models. Demographic covariates were extracted from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey III database. Concentration-time profiles were Monte Carlo simulated where only one covariate affected apparent oral clearance (CL/F). A series of univariate covariate population pharmacokinetic models was fit to the data and compared with the reduced model without covariate. The "best" covariate was identified using either the likelihood ratio test statistic or AIC. Weight and body surface area (calculated using Gehan and George equation, 1970) were highly correlated (r = 0.98). Body surface area was often selected as a better covariate than weight, sometimes as high as 1 in 5 times, when weight was the covariate used in the data generating mechanism. In a second simulation, parent drug concentration and three metabolites were simulated from a thorough QT study and used as covariates in a series of univariate linear mixed effects models of ddQTc interval prolongation. The covariate with the largest significant LRT statistic was deemed the "best" predictor. When the metabolite was formation-rate limited and only parent concentrations affected ddQTc intervals the metabolite was chosen as a better predictor as often as 1 in 5 times depending on the slope of the relationship between parent concentrations and ddQTc intervals. A correlated covariate can be chosen as being a better predictor than another covariate in a linear or nonlinear population analysis by sheer correlation These results explain why for the same drug different covariates may be identified in different analyses. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Population Pharmacokinetics of Isavuconazole from Phase 1 and Phase 3 (SECURE) Trials in Adults and Target Attainment in Patients with Invasive Infections Due to Aspergillus and Other Filamentous Fungi.

Isavuconazole, the active moiety of the water-soluble prodrug isavuconazonium sulfate, is a triazole antifungal agent used for the treatment of invasive fungal infections. The objective of this analysis was to develop a population pharmacokinetic (PPK) model to identify covariates that affect isavuconazole pharmacokinetics and to determine the probability of target attainment (PTA) for invasive aspergillosis patients. Data from nine phase 1 studies and one phase 3 clinical trial (SECURE) were pooled to develop the PPK model (NONMEM, version 7.2). Stepwise covariate modeling was performed in Perl-speaks-NONMEM, version 3.7.6. The area under the curve (AUC) at steady state was calculated for 5,000 patients by using Monte Carlo simulations. The PTA using the estimated pharmacodynamic (PD) target value (total AUC/MIC ratio) estimated from in vivo PD studies of invasive aspergillosis over a range of MIC values was calculated using simulated patient AUC values. A two-compartment model with a Weibull absorption function and a first-order elimination process adequately described plasma isavuconazole concentrations. The mean estimate for isavuconazole clearance was 2.360 liters/h (percent coefficient of variation [%CV], 34%), and the mean AUC from 0 to 24 h (AUC0-24) was ∼100 mg·h/liter. Clearance was approximately 36% lower in Asians than in Caucasians. The PTA calculated over a range of MIC values by use of the nonneutropenic murine efficacy index corresponding to 90% survival indicated that adequate isavuconazole exposures were achieved in >90% of simulated patients to treat infections with MICs up to and including 1 mg/liter according to European Committee on Antimicrobial Susceptibility Testing methodology and in >90% of simulated patients for infections with MICs up to and including 0.5 mg/liter according to Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute methodology. The highest MIC result for PTA was the same for Caucasian and Asian patients.