Population-based epidemiological projections of rheumatoid arthritis in Germany until 2040.

OBJECTIVES: Our aim was to conduct a population-based projection to estimate the number of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) cases in Germany until 2040. METHOD: Data obtained from a report published in 2017 (doi:10.20364/VA-17.08) were used for future prediction analysis. The data were originally collected by the German Central Institute for Statutory Health Insurance. We used the illness-death model to estimate future numbers of RA cases, considering nine possible scenarios based on different incidence and mortality rates. RESULTS: In the baseline scenario, the number of women with RA is projected to increase by 417 000 cases and men by 179 000 cases by 2040, compared with 2015. Peak numbers of cases are concentrated in the 70-80-year-old age group, particularly among women. In the most favourable scenario (scenario 2), assuming a decreasing incidence, the total number of RA cases is projected to rise by 284 000 by 2040, reflecting a 38% relative increase from 2015 to 2040. The least favourable scenario (scenario 9), assuming an increasing incidence, projects a significant burden on the healthcare system. The total number of RA cases is expected to rise by 1.16 million by 2040, marking a substantial 158% relative increase from 2015 to 2040. CONCLUSIONS: Our research emphasizes a discernible trend: with an ageing society, improving treatment effectiveness, and declining all-cause mortality, we anticipate a rise in the absolute numbers of RA cases in Germany in the coming years. Our models robustly support this viewpoint, underscoring impending challenges for healthcare systems. Addressing these challenges demands multifaceted interventions.

Age at diagnosis of Type 2 diabetes in Germany: a nationwide analysis based on claims data from 69 million people.

AIM: For many European countries, including Germany, no valid estimates are available on age at diagnosis of Type 2 diabetes. Thus, we aimed to estimate the age at diagnosis in Germany. METHODS: Age at diagnosis of Type 2 diabetes in Germany was estimated based on Type 2 diabetes prevalence and incidence and the age distribution of the German population. Age- and sex-specific incidence and prevalence in 2014/2015, based on claims data from statutory health insurance (n= 69 000 000, ~85% of the German population), and the age pyramid for Germany in 2015 were used for the calculation. Age at Type 2 diabetes diagnosis was stratified by sex. CIs were estimated using bootstrap methods. In addition, the age range in which 50% of the population received a diagnosis of Type 2 diabetes was calculated (the interquartile range). RESULTS: The mean ± sd age at Type 2 diabetes diagnosis in 2015 was 61.0 ± 13.4 years (95% CI 60.9-61.0) in men. Women were diagnosed ~2 years later than men (mean age 63.4 ± 14.9 years; 95% CI 63.4-63.5). The age range in which 50% of the population was diagnosed with diabetes was 53-72 years for men and 54-76 years for women. CONCLUSIONS: The sex differences are mainly attributable to a higher incidence of Type 2 diabetes in men than women during middle age and the higher absolute number of women in the older ages. The early age at diabetes diagnosis compared to average life expectancy means that the risk of diabetes-related complications is increased.

Quality of care predicts outcome in systemic lupus erythematosus: a cross-sectional analysis of a German long-term study (LuLa cohort).

OBJECTIVE: Our aim was to study the quality of medical care in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) to understand gaps and to analyze the association with outcome of the disease. METHODS: Information on demographics and medical care was assessed by self-reported questionnaires among SLE patients (LuLa cohort, 2011, n = 580). In total, 21 aspects of medical care were analyzed. Univariate analysis selected 10 predictor variables for further analysis: (1) urine examination and (2) blood test in the previous year, (3) taking antimalarials, (4) taking vitamin D and calcium if the dosage of prednisolone was greater than 7.5 mg/day, counseling regarding (5) lipid metabolism, (6) vaccination, and (7) blood pressure, and treatment of the comorbidities (8) hypertension, (9) osteoporosis and (10) lipid metabolism disorder. The association of these 10 items with the outcome of the disease, assessed in 2015, was analyzed by linear regression analysis, adjusted for age, disease duration and sex. RESULTS: On average six of the 10 items were met (±1.7). Receiving more clinical care in 2013 was predictive for low disease activity (SLAQ, p = 0.024, ß = -0.104, corr. R2 = 0.048), low progress in disease-related damage (Delta Brief Index of Lupus Questionnaire, p = 0.048, ß = -0.132, corr. R2 = 0.036) and high health-related quality of life (SF-12 physical, p = 0.035, ß = 0.100, corr. R2 = 0.091) in 2015. CONCLUSION: Our study illustrates a link between the quality of care and the SLE outcome parameters disease activity, disease-related damage and quality of life. Consistent considerations of these care parameters, which are recommended in several management guidelines, could therefore be a good approach to improve the outcome of patients with SLE.

Projected number of people with diagnosed Type 2 diabetes in Germany in 2040.

AIMS: To project the number of people with Type 2 diabetes in Germany between 2015 and 2040. METHODS: Based on data from 65 million insurees of the German statutory health insurance, we projected the age-specific prevalence of diabetes using mathematical relations between prevalence, incidence rate and mortality. We compared several scenarios regarding temporal trends in the incidence and mortality rate. The projected age-specific prevalence was applied to the projected age structure of the German population between 2015 and 2040 to calculate the number of people with Type 2 diabetes. RESULTS: Application of current age-specific prevalence estimates to the projected age structure in 2040, although ignoring temporal trends in incidence and mortality, yielded an increase in the number of Type 2 diabetes cases from 6.9 million in 2015 to 8.3 million (+21%) in 2040. More realistic scenarios that account for decreasing mortality rates and different trends in the incidence rates project between 10.7 million (+54%) and 12.3 million (+77%) Type 2 diabetes cases in 2040. CONCLUSIONS: For the first time, we projected the number of future Type 2 diabetes cases for the whole adult population in Germany. The results indicate a relative increase in the number of Type 2 diabetes cases of between 54% and 77% from 2015 to 2040. Temporal trends in the incidence rate are the main drivers of this increase. Simply applying current age-specific prevalence to the future age structure probably underestimates the future number of Type 2 diabetes cases.

[Success quotas in exercise questions in the discipline of rheumatology in preparation for the written state examination in German universities from 2012 to 2016 : Evaluation of the AMBOSS databank according to professorships in rheumatology with and without freedom of instruction in German universities]. / Erfolgsquote bei Übungsfragen zum Fach Rheumatologie zur Vorbereitung auf das schriftliche Staatsexamen an deutschen Hochschulen von 2012 bis 2016 : Auswertung der AMBOSS-Datenbank nach weisungsfreien und nicht-weisungsfreien rheumatologischen Lehrstühlen an deutschen Hochschulen.

The discipline rheumatology is underrepresented in German universities with only seven professorial chairs with freedom of instruction. The teaching positions with and without freedom of instruction are associated with a different quantity of teaching. The effect of the teaching position on the quality of teaching and on the training of medical students is unclear. In order to approach the answer to this question we have evaluated 2,610,217 examination questions from 32,166 students over a time period of 4 years according to location and freedom of instruction, which are documented on the teaching platform AMBOSS. In total, in the evaluated examination performance in the discipline of rheumatology, the majority of students just about achieved the grade of "sufficient". Locations with freedom of instruction had significantly better grades; however, these differences had no relevance with respect to the complete state examination. The examination pressure on German medical students to learn for the examination discipline of rheumatology can be estimated as rather low.

[Determinants of health-related quality of life in systemic lupus erythematosus: a monocentric, retrospective long-term observational study in Germany]. / Determinanten gesundheitsbezogener Lebensqualität bei systemischem Lupus erythematodes: eine monozentrische, retrospektive Langzeitobservationsstudie in Deutschland.

BACKGROUND: Improvement of health-related quality of life (HRQoL) is a prioritized treatment target in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). A retrospective chart review of patients with repeated HRQoL measurements from the outpatient department was conducted in order to better understand which factors drive HRQoL in established SLE. Of particular interest was the association between HRQoL and disease activity. METHODS: The medical outcomes study short form 36 (SF-36), systemic lupus activity measure (SLAM) and routine clinical data of 169 patients (83% female, mean age 40.3 ± 13 years, disease duration 9.4 ± 7 years) over an average of 7.1 ± 4.2 years were available for analysis by linear mixed modelling. Factors associated with the physical component summary (PCS) and mental component summary (MCS) of the SF-36 were assessed. The proportion of HRQoL which could be explained by the variables was estimated by marginal R2 (mR2) and conditional R2 (cR2). RESULTS: At baseline, SLE patients showed a reduced HRQoL in all subscales of the SF-36 including PCS and MCS with the exception of vitality. A higher PCS over time was significantly associated with concurrent parameters, such as intake of antimalarial drugs, no glucocorticoid use, less fatigue, lower disease activity as well as to the baseline parameters of younger age and higher PCS (mR2 54.7%, cR2 59.9%). A higher MCS was associated with concurrent use of glucocorticoids and a higher baseline MCS (mR2 21.7%, cR2 25.1%). CONCLUSION: The use of antimalarial drugs and no glucocorticoid intake as well as low current disease activity are modifiable factors associated with a better physical HRQoL. The mental component of HRQoL was poorly represented by conventional parameters and not associated with parameters of disease activity in the present study cohort.

Medical adherence in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus in Germany: predictors and reasons for non-adherence - a cross-sectional analysis of the LuLa-cohort.

Objective Adherence to medication has a major impact on treatment control and success especially in chronic diseases but often remains unrecognized. Besides clinical, socioeconomic, disease-related and treatment-related parameters, general and personal health beliefs, as well as perception of health, can affect adherence. Our aim was to investigate the adherence to lupus-specific medications in German lupus patients and to assess influencing factors including detrimental or beneficial effects of health perceptions and beliefs. Methods The Lupus Erythematosus (LE) Long-Term Study (LuLa-study) is a nationwide longitudinal study among German Caucasian patients with systemic lupus erythematosus who have been assessed annually using a self-reported questionnaire since 2001. In 2013, we included questions concerning medical adherence (Morisky Medication Adherence Scale; MMAS-4), beliefs about medication prescribed (BMQ), illness perception and about the patients' health locus of control (HLC). We present a cross-sectional analysis to assess predictors of adherence using a multivariable stepwise logistic regression. Results Five hundred and seventy-nine patients participated, 81 of whom did not take any lupus-specific medication and 40 of whom did not complete the MMAS-4 and were therefore omitted. Only 62.7% reported high adherence. Unintentional behaviour for low medical adherence exceeded the intentional behaviour by far. The use of azathioprine (OR: 1.85; 95% CI: 1.02-3.34), prednisone <7.5 mg (OR: 1.56; 95% CI: 0.97-2.49), a higher age (OR: 1.06; 95% CI: 1.03-1.08) and higher external HLC (OR: 1.15; 95% CI: 1.01-1.30) proved conducive for high adherence in our multivariable model. On the contrary, the general perception of medication being harmful or addictive (OR: 0.89; 95% CI: 0.82-0.97) was detrimental. Conclusion A low belief that one's own health is determined by healthcare providers (external HLC) and the belief of the harmfulness of medication were independent predictors of low adherence besides age and the choice of the medical agent. The recognition of these potential obstacles in physician-patient relationships is essential to ameliorate adherence. Provision of sufficient information and education might help to reach the best possible outcome.

Excess mortality for people diagnosed with type 2 diabetes in 2012 - Estimates based on claims data from 70 million Germans.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The hazard ratio (HR) is a meaningful concept for comparing the mortality of people with and without type 2 diabetes (T2D). Nevertheless, there is only one German study estimating age-specific HRs. Thus, this study aimed to provide population-wide age-specific HRs for Germany using a novel method based on aggregated population data. METHODS AND RESULTS: We used an illness-death model and published data on T2D prevalence and incidence as well as mortality in the German general population to estimate age-specific HRs in the year 2012 for the population aged 65-90 years. For men, the overall HR was 2.3, which decreased from 2.8 between 65 and 69 years old to 1.6 between 85 and 90 years old. For women, the overall HR was 3.0, which decreased from 4.2 to 1.7 in the same age groups, respectively. CONCLUSION: In Germany, men and women in 2012 with T2D aged 65-90 years experienced a three-to four-fold higher mortality compared to people without T2D, which might indicate that the excess mortality could be higher than in countries with comparable health care systems. Female sex and younger age were associated with higher excess mortality.

Healthcare costs of Type 2 diabetes in Germany.

AIM: To describe for the first time the direct costs of Type 2 diabetes treatment by analysing nationwide routine data from statutory health insurance in Germany. METHODS: This cost-of-illness-study was based on a 6.8% random sample of all German people with statutory health insurance (4.3 out of 70 million people). The healthcare expenses show direct per capita costs from the payer perspective. Healthcare expenses for physicians, dentists, pharmacies, hospitals, sick benefits and other healthcare costs were considered. Per capita costs, cost ratios for people with Type 2 diabetes and without diabetes as well as diabetes-attributable costs were calculated. RESULTS: Per capita costs for people with Type 2 diabetes amounted to €4,957 in 2009 and €5,146 in 2010. People with Type 2 diabetes had 1.7-fold higher health expenses than people without diabetes. The largest differences in health expenses were found for prescribed medication from pharmacies (cost ratio diabetes/no diabetes: 2.2) and inpatient treatment (1.8). Ten percent of the total statutory health insurance expense, in total €16.1 billion, was attributable to the medical care of people with Type 2 diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: This nationwide study indicates that one in 10 Euros of healthcare expenses is spent on people with Type 2 diabetes in Germany. In the future, national statutory health insurance data can be used to quantify time trends of costs in the healthcare system.

Age-specific prevalence of diagnosed systemic lupus erythematosus in Germany 2002 and projection to 2030.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this report is to estimate the prevalence and future number of cases of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) in Germany. METHODS: Data from a representative sample of all insurants from the statutory health insurance in Germany comprising more than 2.3 million individuals have been screened for SLE diagnoses. The gender- and age-specific prevalence of SLE is calculated. The case definition is based on at least one recorded diagnosis of SLE during 2002. The stratum-specific prevalence is applied to the current and the future population of Germany in order to estimate and predict the number of people with SLE until 2030. RESULTS: The overall prevalence of diagnosed SLE in 2002 was 15.4 (95% CI: 13.1-17.9) and 55.4 (51.4, 59.8) per 100,000 in the male and female German population. This corresponds to an estimated 30,000 and 31,000 people with diagnosed SLE in 2002 and 2010, respectively. This number will slightly increase until 2020 and decrease thereafter. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with health insurance data from France, the prevalence in our data is similar. Under the assumption that the gender- and age-specific prevalence of SLE in Germany will not change considerably, the number of cases in the next two decades will change only slightly.

[Gender-specific differences in capillaroscopy in healthy persons and patients with inflammatory rheumatic diseases]. / Geschlechtsspezifische Unterschiede bei Gesunden und Patienten mit entzündlich-rheumatischen Erkrankungen in der Kapillarmikroskopie.

BACKGROUND: Capillaroscopy is an established tool to assess morphological and functional findings of the microcirculation which have a confirmed association with disease activity and damage of inflammatory rheumatic diseases, especially systemic sclerosis. Hairpin-shaped capillaries with normal density predict a very low risk for collagenosis. METHODS: Own databases were evaluated with respect to the topic of the manuscript and the current literature was evaluated. RESULTS: The healthy population does not only demonstrate hairpin shape as capillaroscopic normal findings and morphological and functional abnormalities can also be found which show various patterns depending on gender and age. These can be found in healthy persons and also patients with collagenosis. Ectasia and sludge phenomenon are more common in women and tortuous capillaries are more common in men. Capillary filling is often decreased in women and increased in male patients. CONCLUSION: When assessing capillaroscopy findings, gender and the morphological or functional alterations which can be found in the normal healthy population should be taken into consideration. In further studies with capillaroscopy as the target parameter, the potential source of the disturbance should be known, especially in small populations, and if necessary balanced by weighted randomization.

High socioeconomic impact on prescription behavior despite unrestricted access to disease-modifying therapies in people with multiple sclerosis.

Background: Economic and health care restraints strongly impact on drug prescription for chronic diseases. We aimed to identify potential factors for prescription behavior in chronic disease. Multiple sclerosis was chosen as a model disease due to its chronic character, incidence, and high socioeconomic impact. Methods: Germany was used as a model country as the health-care system is devoid of economic and drug availability restraints. German statutory health insurance data were analyzed retrospectively. The impact of number of university hospitals and neurologists as well as the gross domestic product (GDP) as potential factors on prescriptions of platform and high-efficacy disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) was analyzed. Results: Prescription of platform DMTs increased over time in almost all federal states with varying degree of increase. Univariate regression analysis showed that the prescription volume of platform DMTs positively correlated with the number of university hospitals and neurologists, as well as the GDP per federal state. Stepwise forward regression analysis including all potential factors indicated a statistically significant model for platform DMT (R2 = 0.55; 95%-CI [0.28, 0.82]; p=0.001) revealing GDP as the main contributor. This was confirmed in the independent analysis. Conclusion: This study illustrates that even without overt drug prescription inequity, access to medication is not evenly distributed and depends on economic strength and regional medical care density.

Projection of the burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Germany: a demographic modelling approach to estimate the direct medical excess costs from 2010 to 2040.

AIM: To model the future costs of Type 2 diabetes in Germany, taking into account demographic changes, disease dynamics and undiagnosed cases. METHODS: Using a time-discrete Markov model, the prevalence of diabetes (diagnosed/undiagnosed) between 2010 and 2040 was estimated and linked with cost weights. Demographic, epidemiological and economic scenarios were modelled. Inputs to the model included the official population forecasts, prevalence, incidence and mortality rates, proportions of undiagnosed cases, health expenditure and cost ratios of an individual with (diagnosed/undiagnosed) diabetes to an individual without diabetes. The outcomes were the case numbers and associated annual direct medical excess costs of Type 2 diabetes from a societal perspective in 2010€. RESULTS: In the base case, the case numbers of diabetes will grow from 5 million (2.8 million diagnosed) in 2010 to a maximum of 7.9 million (4.6 million diagnosed) in 2037. From 2010 to 2040, the prevalence rate amonf individuals ≥40 years old will increase from 10.5 to 16.3%. The annual costs of diabetes will increase by 79% from €11.8 billion in 2010 to €21.1 billion in 2040 (€9.5 billion to €17.6 billion for diagnosed cases). CONCLUSIONS: The projected increase in costs will be attributable to demographic changes and disease dynamics, and will be enhanced by higher per capita costs with advancing age. Better epidemiological and economic data regarding diabetes care in Germany would improve the forecasting accuracy. The method used in the present study can anticipate the effects of alternative policy scenarios and can easily be adapted to other chronic diseases.

Validation and evaluation of the German Brief Index of Lupus Damage (BILD)--a self-reported instrument to record damage in systemic lupus erythematosus.

INTRODUCTION: Damage is a very important predictor for outcome in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and should be routinely documented. Patient-reported assessments for damage are rare and neither the Lupus Damage Index Questionnaire (LDIQ) nor the Brief Index of Lupus Damage (BILD) is validated in German language. Our aim was to validate the BILD in German language and evaluate its use as a patient-administered instrument. METHOD: We translated and adapted the BILD questionnaire to use it as a self-administered questionnaire for German-speaking SLE patients. It was applied to SLE outpatients at an academic centre and compared to the SLICC/SDI and other lupus outcome parameters. RESULTS: The German BILD showed as strong a correlation with the SLICC/SDI as the original version of the BILD and a superior correlation compared to the LDIQ. It scored significantly higher with an increase of age, disease duration or disease activity, with a lower functional status or overall health and a higher probability of receiving an incapacity pension. CONCLUSION: The German version of the BILD shows a comparable validity to the original BILD with even higher correlation to physician-reported damage even when used as a self-administered questionnaire. Hence it represents a promising instrument to survey damage in clinical routine as well as in clinical and epidemiological studies.

Pregnancy outcome in patients with antiphospholipid syndrome after cerebral ischaemic events: an observational study.

Among the most prominent features associated with antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) are cerebral ischaemic events (CVE). Pregnancy with APS increases the risk of thrombosis, including CVE. This study was undertaken to assess the risk of obstetric complications and recurrence of CVE during pregnancy in women with APS and previous CVE. We prospectively observed 23 pregnancies in 20 women (median age 31 years) with primary (n = 8) or secondary APS (n = 12). Eight patients had transient ischaemic attacks (TIA) and 12 had stroke before pregnancy. All patients received aspirin 100 mg daily in combination with low molecular weight heparin (LMWH) during their pregnancies. The live birth rate was 91.3% (n = 21). Obstetrical complications consisted mainly of preeclampsia (n = 8, 34.8%) and preterm delivery (n = 9, 42.9%). The risk for preeclampsia increased in patients who were positive for multiple antiphospholipid antibodies (aPL) (odds ratio (OR) 3.06 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01-9.32)) per positive aPL test (i.e anticardiolipin antibody, anti-ß2-glycoprotein I antibody, lupus anticoagulant) (p 0.049). Three patients experienced recurrent CVE in the context of pregnancy (one during pregnancy, two in the postpartum period). We found an increased, but not significant, risk of a new episode of cerebral ischaemia in patients with pregnancies complicated by preeclampsia (two out of the eight preeclampsia (p 0.15). Despite treatment, there is a significant risk for pregnancy complications in APS patients with previous CVE. Especially in the context of preeclampsia, anticoagulation should be given rigorously to prevent recurrence of CVE.