Development and validation of a diagnostic prediction model distinguishing complicated from uncomplicated diverticulitis.

OBJECTIVES: Most diverticulitis patients (80%) who are referred to secondary care have uncomplicated diverticulitis (UD) which is a self-limiting disease and can be treated at home. The aim of this study is to develop a diagnostic model that can safely rule out complicated diverticulitis (CD) based on clinical and laboratory parameters to reduce unnecessary referrals. METHODS: A retrospective cross-sectional study was performed including all patients who presented at the emergency department with CT-proven diverticulitis. Patient characteristics, clinical signs and laboratory parameters were collected. CD was defined as > Hinchey 1A. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to quantify which (combination of) variables were independently related to the presence or absence of CD. A diagnostic prediction model was developed and validated to rule out CD. RESULTS: A total of 943 patients were included of whom 172 (18%) had CD. The dataset was randomly split into a derivation and validation set. The derivation dataset contained 475 patients of whom 82 (18%) patients had CD. Age, vomiting, generalized abdominal pain, change in bowel habit, abdominal guarding, C-reactive protein and leucocytosis were univariably related to CD. The final validated diagnostic model included abdominal guarding, C-reactive protein and leucocytosis (AUC 0.79 (95% CI 0.73-0.84)). At a CD risk threshold of ≤7.5% this model had a negative predictive value of 96%. CONCLUSION: This proposed prediction model can safely rule out complicated diverticulitis. Clinical practitioners could cautiously use this model to aid them in the decision whether or not to subject patients to further secondary care diagnostics or treatment.

The ACCURE-trial: the effect of appendectomy on the clinical course of ulcerative colitis, a randomised international multicenter trial (NTR2883) and the ACCURE-UK trial: a randomised external pilot trial (ISRCTN56523019).

BACKGROUND: Over the past 20 years evidence has accumulated confirming the immunomodulatory role of the appendix in ulcerative colitis (UC). This led to the idea that appendectomy might alter the clinical course of established UC. The objective of this body of research is to evaluate the short-term and medium-term efficacy of appendectomy to maintain remission in patients with UC, and to establish the acceptability and cost-effectiveness of the intervention compared to standard treatment. METHODS/DESIGN: These paired phase III multicenter prospective randomised studies will include patients over 18 years of age with an established diagnosis of ulcerative colitis and a disease relapse within 12 months prior to randomisation. Patients need to have been medically treated until complete clinical (Mayo score <3) and endoscopic (Mayo score 0 or 1) remission. Patients will then be randomised 1:1 to a control group (maintenance 5-ASA treatment, no appendectomy) or elective laparoscopic appendectomy plus maintenance treatment. The primary outcome measure is the one year cumulative UC relapse rate - defined both clinically and endoscopically as a total Mayo-score ≥5 with endoscopic subscore of 2 or 3. Secondary outcomes that will be assessed include the number of relapses per patient at 12 months, the time to first relapse, health related quality of life and treatment costs, and number of colectomies in each arm. DISCUSSION: The ACCURE and ACCURE-UK trials will provide evidence on the role and acceptability of appendectomy in the treatment of ulcerative colitis and the effects of appendectomy on the disease course. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NTR2883 ; ISRCTN56523019.