Uncertain outcomes: adjusting for misclassification in antimalarial efficacy studies.

Evaluation of antimalarial efficacy is difficult because recurrent parasitaemia can be due to recrudescence or re-infection. PCR is used to differentiate between recrudescences and re-infections by comparing parasite allelic variants before and after treatment. However, PCR-corrected results are susceptible to misclassification: false positives, due to re-infection by the same variant present in the patient before treatment; and false negatives, due to variants that are present but too infrequent to be detected in the pre-treatment PCR, but are then detectable post-treatment. This paper aimed to explore factors affecting the probability of false positives and proposes a Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis to account for both types of misclassification. Higher levels of transmission intensity, increased multiplicity of infection, and limited allelic variation resulted in more false recrudescences. The uncertainty analysis exploits characteristics of study data to minimize bias in the estimate of efficacy and can be applied to areas of different transmission intensity.

Evolution by small steps and rugged landscapes in the RNA virus phi6.

Fisher's geometric model of adaptive evolution argues that adaptive evolution should generally result from the substitution of many mutations of small effect because advantageous mutations of small effect should be more common than those of large effect. However, evidence for both evolution by small steps and for Fisher's model has been mixed. Here we report supporting results from a new experimental test of the model. We subjected the bacteriophage phi6 to intensified genetic drift in small populations and caused viral fitness to decline through the accumulation of a deleterious mutation. We then propagated the mutated virus at a range of larger population sizes and allowed fitness to recover by natural selection. Although fitness declined in one large step, it was usually recovered in smaller steps. More importantly, step size during recovery was smaller with decreasing size of the recovery population. These results confirm Fisher's main prediction that advantageous mutations of small effect should be more common. We also show that the advantageous mutations of small effect are compensatory mutations whose advantage is conditional (epistatic) on the presence of the deleterious mutation, in which case the adaptive landscape of phi6 is likely to be very rugged.

Near-infrared optical imaging of tissue phantoms with measurement in the change of optical path lengths.

Using 2-D Monte Carlo simulations, we have demonstrated that values of delta < L > at varying delta t, T1 and T2 can contain significant information concerning the presence and location of a light absorbing volume in scattering media such as tissue. Specifically, we have illustrated that relationships exist between ZPW measured in x,y reflectance geometries and the absorber x,y,z position. These relationships are predictable yet can be expected to furthermore vary with (i) absorber z-dimensions, (ii) the optical properties of the surrounding media, and (iii) the source/detector separation, rho. In addition, while we have reported absorber positions located within 1 cm of tissue thickness for rho = 2 cm, One can expect interrogation of absorbers located at greater tissue thicknesses with greater rho 4. Most importantly, it is noteworthy that there exists greater opportunity to monitor specific population of photons in time-domain PMI than in frequency-domain PMI. Therefore, time-domain localization may be more sensitive than in the frequency-domain. From comparison to PMI, Figure 8 illustrates the values of delta I* computed from equation (1) versus absorber position for the same values T1 and T2 as in Figure 3. Upon inspection of Figures 3 and 8, one can see that it is easier to infer the relationship between the PSV and the absorber position from delta < L > than from delta I*. As a consequence, the measurement of delta < L > may enable creation of an inverse localization algorithm for photon migration imaging.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Horizontal gene transfer and the evolution of microvirid coliphage genomes.

Bacteriophage genomic evolution has been largely characterized by rampant, promiscuous horizontal gene transfer involving both homologous and nonhomologous source DNA. This pattern has emerged through study of the tailed double-stranded DNA (dsDNA) phages and is based upon a sparse sampling of the enormous diversity of these phages. The single-stranded DNA phages of the family Microviridae, including phiX174, appear to evolve through qualitatively different mechanisms, possibly as result of their strictly lytic lifestyle and small genome size. However, this apparent difference could reflect merely a dearth of relevant data. We sought to characterize the forces that contributed to the molecular evolution of the Microviridae and to examine the genetic structure of this single family of bacteriophage by sequencing the genomes of microvirid phage isolated on a single bacterial host. Microvirids comprised 3.5% of the detectable phage in our environmental samples, and sequencing yielded 42 new microvirid genomes. Phylogenetic analysis of the genes contained in these and five previously described microvirid phages identified three distinct clades and revealed at least two horizontal transfer events between clades. All members of one clade have a block of five putative genes that are not present in any member of the other two clades. Our data indicate that horizontal transfer does contribute to the evolution of the microvirids but is both quantitatively and qualitatively different from what has been observed for the dsDNA phages.

Evolvability of an RNA virus is determined by its mutational neighbourhood.

The ubiquity of mechanisms that generate genetic variation has spurred arguments that evolvability, the ability to generate adaptive variation, has itself evolved in response to natural selection. The high mutation rate of RNA viruses is postulated to be an adaptation for evolvability, but the paradox is that whereas some RNA viruses evolve at high rates, others are highly stable. Here we show that evolvability in the RNA bacteriophage phi6 is also determined by the accessibility of advantageous genotypes within the mutational neighbourhood (the set of mutants one or a few mutational steps away). We found that two phi6 populations that were derived from a single ancestral phage repeatedly evolved at different rates and toward different fitness maxima. Fitness measurements of individual phages showed that the fitness distribution of mutants differed between the two populations. Whereas population A, which evolved toward a higher maximum, had a distribution that contained many advantageous mutants, population B, which evolved toward a lower maximum, had a distribution that contained only deleterious mutants. We interpret these distributions to measure the fitness effects of genotypes that are mutationally available to the two populations. Thus, the evolvability of phi6 is constrained by the distribution of its mutational neighbours, despite the fact that this phage has the characteristic high mutation rate of RNA viruses.

Origin of phosphorescence signals reemitted from tissues.

We investigate the origin of fluorescent or phosphorescent signals reemitted from highly scattering media (such as tissues), using diffusion theory and probability analysis. Results show that the lifetime of a uniformly distributed phosphorescent or fluorescent optical probe will profoundly affect the volume interrogated by noninvasive reflectance measurements. When the lifetime is greater than photon migration times, the origin of the reemitted signal is confined closest to the surface. Our computations suggest that noninvasive measurements of tissue oxygen concentration may not necessarily interrogate deep tissues when systemically administered phosphorescent dyes are used.

Patterns of epistasis in RNA viruses: a review of the evidence from vaccine design.

Epistasis results when the fitness effects of a mutation change depending on the presence or absence of other mutations in the genome. The predictions of many influential evolutionary hypotheses are determined by the existence and form of epistasis. One rich source of data on the interactions among deleterious mutations that has gone untapped by evolutionary biologists is the literature on the design of live, attenuated vaccine viruses. Rational vaccine design depends upon the measurement of individual and combined effects of deleterious mutations. In the current study, we have reviewed data from 29 vaccine-oriented studies using 14 different RNA viruses. Our analyses indicate that (1) no consistent tendency towards a particular form of epistasis exists across RNA viruses and (2) significant interactions among groups of mutations within individual viruses occur but are not common. RNA viruses are significant pathogens of human disease, and are tractable model systems for evolutionary studies--we discuss the relevance of our findings in both contexts.

Antigenic variation in Neisseria gonorrhoeae: production of multiple lipooligosaccharides.

Individual cells of Neisseria gonorrhoeae may express a single lipooligosaccharide (LOS) component on their cell surfaces, or they may simultaneously express multiple LOS structures. Strain FA19 expresses LOS components that react with monoclonal antibodies (MAbs) 2-1-L8 and 1B2. The genetic locus responsible for this phenotype in FA19 was identified by isolating a clone that is able to impart the ability to simultaneously express both LOS molecules to strain 1291, a strain expressing only the MAb 1B2-reactive LOS. This clone, pCLB1, was characterized, and the gene responsible for the expression of both LOS components was determined to be lsi2. DNA sequence analysis of lsi2(Fa19) indicates that there are several differences between the DNA sequences of lsi2(FA19) and lsi2(1291). The region responsible for the LOS-specific phenotype change in lsi2(FA19) was identified by deletion and transformation analysis, mapping to a polyguanine tract within lsi2 where lsi2(FA19) possesses a +2 frameshift relative to lsi2(1291). The polyguanine tract in lsi2(FA19) was modified by site-directed mutagenesis to change the sequence to GGGAGGTGGCGGA to prevent frameshifting during DNA replication, transcription, and/or translation. Transformants of strain 1291 containing this DNA sequence express a single MAb 2-1-L8-reactive LOS component, the same phenotype exhibited by lsi2-defective strains. These data indicate that FA19 is able to generate a small amount of functional Lsi2 protein via transcriptional and/or translational frameshifting, and this limited amount of protein allows for the expression of MAb 1B2-reactive LOS molecules.

Localization of absorbers in scattering media by use of frequency-domain measurements of time-dependent photon migration.

Frequency-domain studies of time-dependent light propagation in tissuelike phantoms that contain optical heterogeneities are described. Specifically the phase shift and amplitude modulation of reemergent light were measured when illuminated by an amplitude-modulated light source. Changes in the phase angle and the extent of modulation revealed the presence of a light-absorbing object. Furthermore the magnitude and direction of these changes were sensitive to the absorber depth and the light modulation frequency in a manner that could be used to infer the location of the heterogeneity. These data suggest the feasibility of optical imaging by frequency-domain methods.

Kin selection and parasite evolution: higher and lower virulence with hard and soft selection.

Conventional models predict that low genetic relatedness among parasites that coinfect the same host leads to the evolution of high parasite virulence. Such models assume adaptive responses to hard selection only. We show that if soft selection is allowed to operate, low relatedness leads instead to the evolution of low virulence. With both hard and soft selection, low relatedness increases the conflict among coinfecting parasites. Although parasites can only respond to hard selection by evolving higher virulence and overexploiting their host, they can respond to soft selection by evolving other adaptations, such as interference, that prevent overexploitation. Because interference can entail a cost, the host may actually be underexploited, and virulence will decrease as a result of soft selection. Our analysis also shows that responses to soft selection can have a much stronger effect than responses to hard selection. After hard selection has raised virulence to a level that is an evolutionarily stable strategy, the population, as expected, cannot be invaded by more virulent phenotypes that respond only to hard selection. The population remains susceptible to invasion by a less virulent phenotype that responds to soft selection, however. Thus, hard and soft selection are not just alternatives. Rather, soft selection is expected to prevail and often thwart the evolution of virulence in parasites. We review evidence from several parasite systems and find support for soft selection. Most of the examples involve interference mechanisms that indirectly prevent the evolution of higher virulence. We recognize that hard selection for virulence is more difficult to document, but we take our results to suggest that a kin selection model with soft selection may have general applicability.

Hybrid frequencies confirm limit to coinfection in the RNA bacteriophage phi6.

Coinfection of the same host cell by multiple viruses may lead to increased competition for limited cellular resources, thus reducing the fitness of an individual virus. Selection should favor viruses that can limit or prevent coinfection, and it is not surprising that many viruses have evolved mechanisms to do so. Here we explore whether coinfection is limited in the RNA bacteriophage phi6 that infects Pseudomonas phaseolicola. We estimated the limit to coinfection in phi6 by comparing the frequency of hybrids produced by two marked phage strains to that predicted by a mathematical model based on differing limits to coinfection. Our results provide an alternative method for estimating the limit to coinfection and confirm a previous estimate between two to three phages per host cell. In addition, our data reveal that the rate of coinfection at low phage densities may exceed that expected through random Poisson sampling. We discuss whether phage phi6 has evolved an optimal limit that balances the costly and beneficial fitness effects associated with multiple infections.

Genetic basis of Neisseria gonorrhoeae lipooligosaccharide antigenic variation.

Neisseria gonorrhoeae lipooligosaccharide (LOS) undergoes antigenic variation at a high rate, and this variation can be monitored by changes in a strain's ability to bind LOS-specific monoclonal antibodies. We report here the cloning and identification of a gene, lsi-2, that can mediate this variation. The DNA sequence of lsi-2 has been determined for N. gonorrhoeae 1291, a strain that expresses a high-molecular-mass LOS, and a derivative of this strain, RS132L, that produces a truncated LOS. In the parental strain, lsi-2 contains a string of 12 guanines in the middle of its coding sequence. In cells that had antigenically varied to produce a truncated LOS, the number of guanines in lsi-2 was altered. Site-specific deletions were constructed to verify that expression of a 3.6-kDa LOS is due to alterations in lsi-2.