Aspergillus fumigatus-a systematic review to inform the World Health Organization priority list of fungal pathogens.

Recognizing the growing global burden of fungal infections, the World Health Organization established a process to develop a priority list of fungal pathogens (FPPL). In this systematic review, we aimed to evaluate the epidemiology and impact of invasive infections caused by Aspergillus fumigatus to inform the first FPPL. The pre-specified criteria of mortality, inpatient care, complications and sequelae, antifungal susceptibility, risk factors, preventability, annual incidence, global distribution, and emergence were used to search for relevant articles between 1 January 2016 and 10 June 2021. Overall, 49 studies were eligible for inclusion. Azole antifungal susceptibility varied according to geographical regions. Voriconazole susceptibility rates of 22.2% were reported from the Netherlands, whereas in Brazil, Korea, India, China, and the UK, voriconazole susceptibility rates were 76%, 94.7%, 96.9%, 98.6%, and 99.7%, respectively. Cross-resistance was common with 85%, 92.8%, and 100% of voriconazole-resistant A. fumigatus isolates also resistant to itraconazole, posaconazole, and isavuconazole, respectively. The incidence of invasive aspergillosis (IA) in patients with acute leukemia was estimated at 5.84/100 patients. Six-week mortality rates in IA cases ranged from 31% to 36%. Azole resistance and hematological malignancy were poor prognostic factors. Twelve-week mortality rates were significantly higher in voriconazole-resistant than in voriconazole-susceptible IA cases (12/22 [54.5%] vs. 27/88 [30.7%]; P = .035), and hematology patients with IA had significantly higher mortality rates compared with solid-malignancy cases who had IA (65/217 [30%] vs. 14/78 [18%]; P = .04). Carefully designed surveillance studies linking laboratory and clinical data are required to better inform future FPPL.

Pichia kudriavzevii (Candida krusei): A systematic review to inform the World Health Organisation priority list of fungal pathogens.

In response to the growing global threat of fungal infections, in 2020 the World Health Organisation (WHO) established an Expert Group to identify priority fungi and develop the first WHO fungal priority pathogen list (FPPL). The aim of this systematic review was to evaluate the features and global impact of invasive infections caused by Pichia kudriavzevii (formerly known as Candida krusei). PubMed and Web of Science were used to identify studies published between 1 January 2011 and 18 February 2021 reporting on the criteria of mortality, morbidity (defined as hospitalisation and length of stay), drug resistance, preventability, yearly incidence, and distribution/emergence. Overall, 33 studies were evaluated. Mortality rates of up to 67% in adults were reported. Despite the intrinsic resistance of P. kudriavzevii to fluconazole with decreased susceptibility to amphotericin B, resistance (or non-wild-type rate) to other azoles and echinocandins was low, ranging between 0 and 5%. Risk factors for developing P. kudriavzevii infections included low birth weight, prior use of antibiotics/antifungals, and an underlying diagnosis of gastrointestinal disease or cancer. The incidence of infections caused by P. kudriavzevii is generally low (∼5% of all Candida-like blood isolates) and stable over the 10-year timeframe, although additional surveillance data are needed. Strategies targeting the identified risk factors for developing P. kudriavzevii infections should be developed and tested for effectiveness and feasibility of implementation. Studies presenting data on epidemiology and susceptibility of P. kudriavzevii were scarce, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Thus, global surveillance systems are required to monitor the incidence, susceptibility, and morbidity of P. kudriavzevii invasive infections to inform diagnosis and treatment. Timely species-level identification and susceptibility testing should be conducted to reduce the high mortality and limit the spread of P. kudriavzevii in healthcare facilities.

Fusarium species,Scedosporium species, and Lomentospora prolificans: A systematic review to inform the World Health Organization priority list of fungal pathogens.

Recognizing the growing global burden of fungal infections, the World Health Organization established a process to develop a priority list of fungal pathogens (FPPL). In this systematic review, we aimed to evaluate the epidemiology and impact of infections caused by Fusarium spp., Scedosporium spp., and Lomentospora prolificans to inform the first FPPL. PubMed and Web of Sciences databases were searched to identify studies published between January 1, 2011 and February 23, 2021, reporting on mortality, complications and sequelae, antifungal susceptibility, preventability, annual incidence, and trends. Overall, 20, 11, and 9 articles were included for Fusarium spp., Scedosporium spp., and L. prolificans, respectively. Mortality rates were high in those with invasive fusariosis, scedosporiosis, and lomentosporiosis (42.9%-66.7%, 42.4%-46.9%, and 50.0%-71.4%, respectively). Antifungal susceptibility data, based on small isolate numbers, showed high minimum inhibitory concentrations (MIC)/minimum effective concentrations for most currently available antifungal agents. The median/mode MIC for itraconazole and isavuconazole were ≥16 mg/l for all three pathogens. Based on limited data, these fungi are emerging. Invasive fusariosis increased from 0.08 cases/100 000 admissions to 0.22 cases/100 000 admissions over the time periods of 2000-2009 and 2010-2015, respectively, and in lung transplant recipients, Scedosporium spp. and L. prolificans were only detected from 2014 onwards. Global surveillance to better delineate antifungal susceptibility, risk factors, sequelae, and outcomes is required.

Adapting response to a measles outbreak in a context of high vaccination and breakthrough cases: an example from Vaud, Switzerland, January to March 2024.

A measles outbreak with 51 cases occurred in the canton of Vaud, Switzerland, between January and March 2024. The outbreak was triggered by an imported case, and 37 (72.5%) subsequent cases were previously vaccinated individuals. Epidemiological investigations showed that vaccinated measles cases were symptomatic and infectious. In a highly vaccinated population, it is important to raise awareness among healthcare professionals to suspect and test for measles virus when an outbreak is declared, irrespective of the vaccination status of the patients.

Associated deaths and disability-adjusted life-years caused by infections with antibiotic-resistant bacteria in Switzerland, 2010 to 2019.

BackgroundCassini et al. (2019) estimated that, in 2015, infections with 16 different antibiotic-resistant bacteria resulted in ca 170 disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) per 100,000 population in the European Union and European Economic area (EU/EEA). The corresponding estimate for Switzerland was about half of this (87.8 DALYs per 100,000 population) but still higher than that of several EU/EEA countries (e.g. neighbouring Austria (77.2)).AimIn this study, the burden caused by the same infections due to antibiotic-resistant bacteria ('AMR burden') in Switzerland from 2010 to 2019 was estimated and the effect of the factors 'linguistic region' and 'hospital type' on this estimate was examined.MethodsNumber of infections, DALYs and deaths were estimated according to Cassini et al. (2019) whereas separate models were built for each linguistic region/hospital type combination.ResultsDALYs increased significantly from 3,995 (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 3;327-4,805) in 2010 to 6,805 (95% UI: 5,820-7,949) in 2019. Linguistic region and hospital type stratifications significantly affected the absolute values and the slope of the total AMR burden estimates. DALYs per population were higher in the Latin part of Switzerland (98 DALYs per 100,000 population; 95% UI: 83-115) compared with the German part (57 DALYs per 100,000 population; 95% UI: 49-66) and in university hospitals (165 DALYs per 100,000 hospitalisation days; 95% UI: 140-194) compared with non-university hospitals (62 DALYs per 100,000 hospitalisation days; 95% UI: 53-72).ConclusionsThe AMR burden estimate in Switzerland has increased significantly between 2010 and 2019. Considerable differences depending on the linguistic region and the hospital type were identified - a finding which affects the nationwide burden estimation.

Adjusting for comorbidity in incidence-based DALY calculations: an individual-based modeling approach.

BACKGROUND: The co-occurrence of two or more medical conditions in the same individual is not uncommon. If disability-adjusted life year (DALY) calculations are carried out for each condition separately, multimorbidity may lead to an overestimation of the morbidity component, the Years Lived with Disability (YLD). Adjusting for comorbidity may be straightforward if all symptoms have same onset and duration; however, when the comorbid health states occur at different time points, an analytical solution to the comorbidity problem becomes more complex. The aim of this study was to develop an individual-based modelling (IBM) approach to adjust incidence-based disease burden estimation for multimorbidity that allows simulating hypothetical individuals and tracking their disease history, including possible comorbidities, over time. METHODS: We demonstrated the IBM approach using an example of external comorbidity, i.e., colon cancer comorbid with healthcare-associated pneumonia (HAP) and by assuming an independent multiplicative model. First, each cumulative progression probabilities were converted to a daily transition probabilities. Second, disability weights for simultaneously experienced health states and duration in each health state were determined. Third, YLD, adjusted for comorbidity, was calculated at every time step. We simulated a cohort of 1000 colorectal cancer patients aged 65 years. Ninety-five percent uncertainty intervals around median YLD values were estimated by Monte Carlo methods. RESULTS: The median estimated YLD per 1000 cases (due to both cancer and HAP) adjusted for co-morbidity was 545 YLD/1000 (95% interval: 513-585). The impact of not adjusting disability weights for co-existent health states varied from minimal to small; YLD for colorectal cancer would be overestimated only slightly - by 1.6 YLD/1000 - by not adjusting for concurrent HAP. YLD for those HAP patients who have concurrent early-stage colorectal cancer would be overestimated by 2.3 YLD/1000. CONCLUSIONS: The computation of disease burden in the presence of multimorbidity using the incidence-based DALY approach can be handled through IBM. Our approach can be extended to other, more complicated multimorbidity scenarios which are responsible for a high current global disease burden, such as tuberculosis and HIV infection.

Resistance proportions for eight priority antibiotic-bacterium combinations in OECD, EU/EEA and G20 countries 2000 to 2030: a modelling study.

BackgroundAntimicrobial resistance is widely considered an urgent global health issue due to associated mortality and disability, societal and healthcare costs.AimTo estimate the past, current and projected future proportion of infections resistant to treatment for eight priority antibiotic-bacterium combinations from 2000 to 2030 for 52 countries.MethodsWe collated data from a variety of sources including ResistanceMap and World Bank. Feature selection algorithms and multiple imputation were used to produce a complete historical dataset. Forecasts were derived from an ensemble of three models: exponential smoothing, linear regression and random forest. The latter two were informed by projections of antibiotic consumption, out-of-pocket medical spending, populations aged 64 years and older and under 15 years and real gross domestic product. We incorporated three types of uncertainty, producing 150 estimates for each country-antibiotic-bacterium-year.ResultsAverage resistance proportions across antibiotic-bacterium combinations could grow moderately from 17% to 18% within the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD; growth in 64% of uncertainty sets), from 18% to 19% in the European Union/European Economic Area (EU/EEA; growth in 87% of uncertainty sets) and from 29% to 31% in Group of Twenty (G20) countries (growth in 62% of uncertainty sets) between 2015 and 2030. There is broad heterogeneity in levels and rates of change across countries and antibiotic-bacterium combinations from 2000 to 2030.ConclusionIf current trends continue, resistance proportions are projected to marginally increase in the coming years. The estimates indicate there is significant heterogeneity in resistance proportions across countries and antibiotic-bacterium combinations.

Application of a new methodology and R package reveals a high burden of healthcare-associated infections (HAI) in Germany compared to the average in the European Union/European Economic Area, 2011 to 2012.

BackgroundHealthcare-associated infections (HAIs) pose a major challenge to health systems. Burden of disease estimations in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) are useful for comparing and ranking HAIs.AimTo estimate the number of five common HAIs, their attributable number of deaths and burden for Germany.MethodsWe developed a new method and R package that builds on the approach used by the Burden of Communicable Diseases in Europe (BCoDE) project to estimate the burden of HAIs for individual countries. We used data on healthcare-associated Clostridioides difficile infection, healthcare-associated pneumonia, healthcare-associated primary bloodstream infection, healthcare-associated urinary tract infection and surgical-site infection, which were collected during the point prevalence survey of HAIs in European acute-care hospitals between 2011 and 2012.ResultsWe estimated 478,222 (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 421,350-537,787) cases for Germany, resulting in 16,245 (95% UI: 10,863-22,756) attributable deaths and 248,920 (95% UI: 178,693-336,239) DALYs. Despite the fact that Germany has a relatively low hospital prevalence of HAIs compared with the European Union/European Economic Area (EU/EEA) average, the burden of HAIs in Germany (308.2 DALYs/100,000 population; 95% UI: 221.2-416.3) was higher than the EU/EEA average (290.0 DALYs/100,000 population; 95% UI: 214.9-376.9). Our methodology is applicable to other countries in or outside of the EU/EEA. An R package is available from https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=BHAI.ConclusionThis is the first study to estimate the burden of HAIs in DALYs for Germany. The large number of hospital beds may be a contributing factor for a relatively high burden of HAIs in Germany. Further focus on infection prevention control, paired with reduction of avoidable hospital stays, is needed to reduce the burden of HAIs in Germany.

Burden of healthcare-associated infections in European acute care hospitals.

Point prevalence surveys of healthcare-associated infections (HAI) and antimicrobial use in the European Union and European Economic Area (EU/EEA) from 2016 to 2017 included 310,755 patients from 1,209 acute care hospitals in 28 countries. After national validation, we estimated that 6.5% (cumulative 95% confidence interval (cCI): 5.4-7.8%) patients in acute care hospitals had at least one HAI (country-weighted prevalence). On any given day, 98,166 patients (95% cCI: 81,022-117,484) in acute care hospitals had an HAI; 3.8 million (95% cCI: 3.1-4.5 million) patients acquired an HAI each year. Our study confirmed a high annual number of HAI in healthcare facilities in the EU/EEA.

Disability weights for infectious diseases in four European countries: comparison between countries and across respondent characteristics.

Background: In 2015, new disability weights (DWs) for infectious diseases were constructed based on data from four European countries. In this paper, we evaluated if country, age, sex, disease experience status, income and educational levels have an impact on these DWs. Methods: We analyzed paired comparison responses of the European DW study by participants' characteristics with separate probit regression models. To evaluate the effect of participants' characteristics, we performed correlation analyses between countries and within country by respondent characteristics and constructed seven probit regression models, including a null model and six models containing participants' characteristics. We compared these seven models using Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). Results: According to AIC, the probit model including country as covariate was the best model. We found a lower correlation of the probit coefficients between countries and income levels (range rs: 0.97-0.99, P < 0.01) than between age groups (range rs: 0.98-0.99, P < 0.01), educational level (range rs: 0.98-0.99, P < 0.01), sex (rs = 0.99, P < 0.01) and disease status (rs = 0.99, P < 0.01). Within country the lowest correlations of the probit coefficients were between low and high income level (range rs = 0.89-0.94, P < 0.01). Conclusions: We observed variations in health valuation across countries and within country between income levels. These observations should be further explored in a systematic way, also in non-European countries. We recommend future researches studying the effect of other characteristics of respondents on health assessment.

Impact of infectious diseases on population health using incidence-based disability-adjusted life years (DALYs): results from the Burden of Communicable Diseases in Europe study, European Union and European Economic Area countries, 2009 to 2013.

Background and aimsThe Burden of Communicable Diseases in Europe (BCoDE) study aimed to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 31 selected diseases in the European Union (EU) and European Economic Area (EEA). Methods: DALYs were estimated using an incidence-based and pathogen-based approach. Incidence was estimated through assessment of data availability and quality, and a correction was applied for under-estimation. Calculation of DALYs was performed with the BCoDE software toolkit without applying time discounting and age-weighting. Results: We estimated that one in 14 inhabitants experienced an infectious disease episode for a total burden of 1.38 million DALYs (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 1.25-1.5) between 2009 and 2013; 76% of which was related to the acute phase of the infection and its short-term complications. Influenza had the highest burden (30% of the total burden), followed by tuberculosis, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection/AIDS and invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD). Men had the highest burden measured in DALYs (60% of the total), adults 65 years of age and over had 24% and children less than 5 years of age had 11%. Age group-specific burden showed that infants (less than 1 year of age) and elderly people (80 years of age and over) experienced the highest burden. Conclusions: These results provide baseline estimates for evaluating infectious disease prevention and control strategies. The study promotes an evidence-based approach to describing population health and assessing surveillance data availability and quality, and provides information for the planning and prioritisation of limited resources in infectious disease prevention and control.

Prioritizing of bacterial infections transmitted through substances of human origin in Europe.

BACKGROUND: Bacteria are the pathogens most frequently transmitted through substances of human origin (SoHO). The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) organized an expert consultation, with the objective of developing a priority list of bacterial pathogens transmissible via SoHO. The list will be used to further assess risks and determine appropriate preventive measures. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: The 14 most frequently SoHO-transmitted bacteria identified through a scoping literature review were then prioritized during an expert workshop through a methodology based on multicriteria decision analysis. The selection of the prioritization method was based upon an ECDC framework for best practices in conducting risk-ranking exercises. Three transmission pathways, blood and blood components, tissues and cells, and organs, were considered in the ranking exercise. RESULTS: According to the ranking score (RS), bacteria were organized within each SoHO pathway into one of four risk tiers: Tier 1 (RS ≥ 0.70), Tier 2 (RS = 0.60-0.69), Tier 3 (RS = 0.40-0.59), or Tier 4 (RS < 0.40). The most consistently identified pathogens in the highest risk Tiers 1 and 2 of all three pathways were: Staphylococcus aureus, Klebsiella spp., Escherichia coli, ß-hemolytic streptococci, Pseudomonas spp., and Acinetobacter spp. CONCLUSION: Six bacteria were defined as being of the highest priority in respect of the threat to the safety of SoHO and will be the subject of subsequent in-depth risk assessments to be conducted by ECDC to identify measures to mitigate the risk posed by these bacteria.

Estimating the annual burden of tick-borne encephalitis to inform vaccination policy, Slovenia, 2009 to 2013.

With an annual incidence between 8 and 15 per 100,000 population in the period from 2009 to 2013, Slovenia has one of the highest notified incidences of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) in Europe. TBE vaccination coverage remains at about 7.3%. To inform vaccination policy, we used surveillance data from 2009 to 2013 to calculate the overall and age- and sex-specific mean annual TBE incidence. We estimated disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) with 95% uncertainty intervals (UI), using the Burden of Communicable Diseases in Europe approach from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. The mean annual incidence was 11.6 per 100,000 population, peaking in older age groups (50-74 years: 18.5/100,000) while relatively lower among children (5-14 years: 10.2/100,000). We estimated an overall 10.95 DALYs per 100,000 population per year (95% UI: 10.25-11.65). In contrast to the TBE incidence, the disease burden in children aged 5-14 years was higher than in adults aged 50-74 years: 17.31 (95% UI: 14.58-20.08) and 11.58 (95% UI: 10.25-12.91) DALYs per 100,000 stratum-specific population, respectively. In a limited resource setting where prioritisation of TBE vaccination strategies is required, vaccination programmes targeting children may have a higher impact on disease burden.

Burden of Six Healthcare-Associated Infections on European Population Health: Estimating Incidence-Based Disability-Adjusted Life Years through a Population Prevalence-Based Modelling Study.

BACKGROUND: Estimating the burden of healthcare-associated infections (HAIs) compared to other communicable diseases is an ongoing challenge given the need for good quality data on the incidence of these infections and the involved comorbidities. Based on the methodology of the Burden of Communicable Diseases in Europe (BCoDE) project and 2011-2012 data from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) point prevalence survey (PPS) of HAIs and antimicrobial use in European acute care hospitals, we estimated the burden of six common HAIs. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The included HAIs were healthcare-associated pneumonia (HAP), healthcare-associated urinary tract infection (HA UTI), surgical site infection (SSI), healthcare-associated Clostridium difficile infection (HA CDI), healthcare-associated neonatal sepsis, and healthcare-associated primary bloodstream infection (HA primary BSI). The burden of these HAIs was measured in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Evidence relating to the disease progression pathway of each type of HAI was collected through systematic literature reviews, in order to estimate the risks attributable to HAIs. For each of the six HAIs, gender and age group prevalence from the ECDC PPS was converted into incidence rates by applying the Rhame and Sudderth formula. We adjusted for reduced life expectancy within the hospital population using three severity groups based on McCabe score data from the ECDC PPS. We estimated that 2,609,911 new cases of HAI occur every year in the European Union and European Economic Area (EU/EEA). The cumulative burden of the six HAIs was estimated at 501 DALYs per 100,000 general population each year in EU/EEA. HAP and HA primary BSI were associated with the highest burden and represented more than 60% of the total burden, with 169 and 145 DALYs per 100,000 total population, respectively. HA UTI, SSI, HA CDI, and HA primary BSI ranked as the third to sixth syndromes in terms of burden of disease. HAP and HA primary BSI were associated with the highest burden because of their high severity. The cumulative burden of the six HAIs was higher than the total burden of all other 32 communicable diseases included in the BCoDE 2009-2013 study. The main limitations of the study are the variability in the parameter estimates, in particular the disease models' case fatalities, and the use of the Rhame and Sudderth formula for estimating incident number of cases from prevalence data. CONCLUSIONS: We estimated the EU/EEA burden of HAIs in DALYs in 2011-2012 using a transparent and evidence-based approach that allows for combining estimates of morbidity and of mortality in order to compare with other diseases and to inform a comprehensive ranking suitable for prioritization. Our results highlight the high burden of HAIs and the need for increased efforts for their prevention and control. Furthermore, our model should allow for estimations of the potential benefit of preventive measures on the burden of HAIs in the EU/EEA.

Neurological sequelae of healthcare-associated sepsis in very-low-birthweight infants: Umbrella review and evidence-based outcome tree.

Sepsis is a frequent cause of death in very-low-birthweight infants and often results in neurological impairment. Its attributable risk of sequelae has not been systematically assessed. To establish an outcome tree for mapping the burden of neonatal sepsis, we performed systematic literature searches to identify systematic reviews addressing sequelae of neonatal sepsis. We included cohort studies and performed meta-analyses of attributable risks. Evidence quality was assessed using GRADE. Two systematic reviews met inclusion criteria. The first included nine cohort studies with 5,620 participants and five outcomes (neurodevelopmental impairment, cerebral palsy, vision impairment, hearing impairment, death). Pooled risk differences varied between 4% (95% confidence interval (CI):2-10) and 13% (95% CI:5-20). From the second review we analysed four studies with 472 infants. Positive predictive value of neurodevelopmental impairment for later cognitive impairment ranged between 67% (95% CI:22-96) and 83% (95% CI:36-100). Neonatal sepsis increases risk of permanent neurological impairment. Effect size varies by outcome, with evidence quality being low to very low. Data were used to construct an outcome tree for neonatal sepsis. Attributable risk estimates for sequelae following neonatal sepsis are suitable for burden estimation and may serve as outcome parameters in interventional studies.

Assessing disability weights based on the responses of 30,660 people from four European countries.

BACKGROUND: In calculations of burden of disease using disability-adjusted life years, disability weights are needed to quantify health losses relating to non-fatal outcomes, expressed as years lived with disability. In 2012 a new set of global disability weights was published for the Global Burden of Disease 2010 (GBD 2010) study. That study suggested that comparative assessments of different health outcomes are broadly similar across settings, but the significance of this conclusion has been debated. The aim of the present study was to estimate disability weights for Europe for a set of 255 health states, including 43 new health states, by replicating the GBD 2010 Disability Weights Measurement study among representative population samples from four European countries. METHODS: For the assessment of disability weights for Europe we applied the GBD 2010 disability weights measurement approach in web-based sample surveys in Hungary, Italy, Netherlands, and Sweden. The survey included paired comparisons (PC) and population health equivalence questions (PHE) formulated as discrete choices. Probit regression analysis was used to estimate cardinal values from PC responses. To locate results onto the 0-to-1 disability weight scale, we assessed the feasibility of using the GBD 2010 scaling approach based on PHE questions, as well as an alternative approach using non-parametric regression. RESULTS: In total, 30,660 respondents participated in the survey. Comparison of the probit regression results from the PC responses for each country indicated high linear correlations between countries. The PHE data had high levels of measurement error in these general population samples, which compromises the ability to infer ratio-scaled values from discrete choice responses. Using the non-parametric regression approach as an alternative rescaling procedure, the set of disability weights were bounded by distance vision mild impairment and anemia with the lowest weight (0.004) and severe multiple sclerosis with the highest weight (0.677). CONCLUSIONS: PC assessments of health outcomes in this study resulted in estimates that were highly correlated across four European countries. Assessment of the feasibility of rescaling based on a discrete choice formulation of the PHE question indicated that this approach may not be suitable for use in a web-based survey of the general population.

Review of disability weight studies: comparison of methodological choices and values.

INTRODUCTION: The disability-adjusted life year (DALY) is widely used to assess the burden of different health problems and risk factors. The disability weight, a value anchored between 0 (perfect health) and 1 (equivalent to death), is necessary to estimate the disability component (years lived with disability, YLDs) of the DALY. After publication of the ground-breaking Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 1996, alternative sets of disability weights have been developed over the past 16 years, each using different approaches with regards to the panel, health state description, and valuation methods. The objective of this study was to review all studies that developed disability weights and to critically assess the methodological design choices (health state and time description, panel composition, and valuation method). Furthermore, disability weights of eight specific conditions were compared. METHODS: Disability weights studies (1990¿2012) in international peer-reviewed journals and grey literature were identified with main inclusion criteria being that the study assessed DALY disability weights for several conditions or a specific group of illnesses. Studies were collated by design and methods and evaluation of results. RESULTS: Twenty-two studies met the inclusion criteria of our review. There is considerable variation in methods used to derive disability weights, although most studies used a disease-specific description of the health state, a panel that consisted of medical experts, and nonpreference-based valuation method to assess the values for the majority of the disability weights. Comparisons of disability weights across 15 specific disease and injury groups showed that the subdivision of a disease into separate health states (stages) differed markedly across studies. Additionally, weights for similar health states differed, particularly in the case of mild diseases, for which the disability weight differed by a factor of two or more. CONCLUSIONS: In terms of comparability of the resulting YLDs, the global use of the same set of disability weights has advantages, though practical constraints and intercultural differences should be taken into account into such a set.

Measuring underreporting and under-ascertainment in infectious disease datasets: a comparison of methods.

BACKGROUND: Efficient and reliable surveillance and notification systems are vital for monitoring public health and disease outbreaks. However, most surveillance and notification systems are affected by a degree of underestimation (UE) and therefore uncertainty surrounds the 'true' incidence of disease affecting morbidity and mortality rates. Surveillance systems fail to capture cases at two distinct levels of the surveillance pyramid: from the community since not all cases seek healthcare (under-ascertainment), and at the healthcare-level, representing a failure to adequately report symptomatic cases that have sought medical advice (underreporting). There are several methods to estimate the extent of under-ascertainment and underreporting. METHODS: Within the context of the ECDC-funded Burden of Communicable Diseases in Europe (BCoDE)-project, an extensive literature review was conducted to identify studies that estimate ascertainment or reporting rates for salmonellosis and campylobacteriosis in European Union Member States (MS) plus European Free Trade Area (EFTA) countries Iceland, Norway and Switzerland and four other OECD countries (USA, Canada, Australia and Japan). Multiplication factors (MFs), a measure of the magnitude of underestimation, were taken directly from the literature or derived (where the proportion of underestimated, under-ascertained, or underreported cases was known) and compared for the two pathogens. RESULTS: MFs varied between and within diseases and countries, representing a need to carefully select the most appropriate MFs and methods for calculating them. The most appropriate MFs are often disease-, country-, age-, and sex-specific. CONCLUSIONS: When routine data are used to make decisions on resource allocation or to estimate epidemiological parameters in populations, it becomes important to understand when, where and to what extent these data represent the true picture of disease, and in some instances (such as priority setting) it is necessary to adjust for underestimation. MFs can be used to adjust notification and surveillance data to provide more realistic estimates of incidence.

Estimating the return on investment of selected infection prevention and control interventions in healthcare settings for preparing against novel respiratory viruses: modelling the experience from SARS-CoV-2 among health workers.

Background: Insufficient infection prevention and control (IPC) practices in healthcare settings increase the SARS-CoV-2 infection risk among health workers. This study aimed to examine the level of preparedness for future outbreaks. Methods: We modelled the experience from the COVID-19 pandemic and assessed the return on investment on a global scale of three IPC interventions to prevent SARS-CoV-2 infections among health workers: enhancing hand hygiene; increasing access to personal protective equipment (PPE); and combining PPE, with a scale-up of IPC training and education (PPE+). Our analysis covered seven geographic regions, representing a combination of World Health Organization (WHO) regions and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. Across all regions, we focused on the first 180 days of the pandemic in 2020 between January 1st and June 30th. We used an extended version of a susceptible-infectious-recovered compartmental model to measure the level of IPC preparedness. Data were sourced from the WHO COVID-19 Detailed Surveillance Database. Findings: In all regions, the PPE + intervention would have averted the highest number of new SARS-CoV-2 infections compared to the other two interventions, ranging from 6562 (95% CI 4873-8779) to 38,170 (95% CI 33,853-41,901) new infections per 100,000 health workers in OECD countries and in the South-East Asia region, respectively. Countries in the South-East Asia region and non-OECD countries in the Western Pacific region were poised to achieve the highest level of savings by scaling up the PPE + intervention. Interpretation: Our results not only support efforts to make an economic case for continuing investments in IPC interventions to halt the COVID-19 pandemic and protect health workers, but could also contribute to efforts to improve preparedness for future outbreaks. Funding: This work was funded by WHO, with support by the German Federal Ministry of Health for the WHOResearch and Development Blueprint for COVID-19.