The WHO estimates of excess mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic.

The World Health Organization has a mandate to compile and disseminate statistics on mortality, and we have been tracking the progression of the COVID-19 pandemic since the beginning of 20201. Reported statistics on COVID-19 mortality are problematic for many countries owing to variations in testing access, differential diagnostic capacity and inconsistent certification of COVID-19 as cause of death. Beyond what is directly attributable to it, the pandemic has caused extensive collateral damage that has led to losses of lives and livelihoods. Here we report a comprehensive and consistent measurement of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic by estimating excess deaths, by month, for 2020 and 2021. We predict the pandemic period all-cause deaths in locations lacking complete reported data using an overdispersed Poisson count framework that applies Bayesian inference techniques to quantify uncertainty. We estimate 14.83 million excess deaths globally, 2.74 times more deaths than the 5.42 million reported as due to COVID-19 for the period. There are wide variations in the excess death estimates across the six World Health Organization regions. We describe the data and methods used to generate these estimates and highlight the need for better reporting where gaps persist. We discuss various summary measures, and the hazards of ranking countries' epidemic responses.

Connecting and feeling: Associations between social factors and emotions in nine countries.

We aimed to explore the distribution of positive and negative emotions across nine low-, middle- and high-income countries; and the association between social factors and these emotions. Data were drawn from the SAGE and the COURAGE studies, with 52,553 participants. Emotions were assessed through the day reconstruction method.Sociodemographic characteristics and social factors were also measured. Multiple linear regressions were performed. Finland, China and African countries showed significantly lower scores on the negative emotions, whereas positive emotions were more homogeneous across countries. Loneliness was positively associated with negative emotions and negatively associated with positive ones; frequent social participation was related with higher scores in positive emotions; and lower trust with higher levels of feeling rushed, irritated, depressed and less calm. The extent to which each emotion was felt varied across countries, but there seems to exist an association of social factors with the emotions.

Global estimates of the need for rehabilitation based on the Global Burden of Disease study 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

BACKGROUND: Rehabilitation has often been seen as a disability-specific service needed by only few of the population. Despite its individual and societal benefits, rehabilitation has not been prioritised in countries and is under-resourced. We present global, regional, and country data for the number of people who would benefit from rehabilitation at least once during the course of their disabling illness or injury. METHODS: To estimate the need for rehabilitation, data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 were used to calculate the prevalence and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) of 25 diseases, impairments, or bespoke aggregations of sequelae that were selected as amenable to rehabilitation. All analyses were done at the country level and then aggregated to seven regions: World Bank high-income countries and the six WHO regions (ie, Africa, the Americas, Southeast Asia, Europe, Eastern Mediterranean, and Western Pacific). FINDINGS: Globally, in 2019, 2·41 billion (95% uncertainty interval 2·34-2·50) individuals had conditions that would benefit from rehabilitation, contributing to 310 million [235-392] YLDs. This number had increased by 63% from 1990 to 2019. Regionally, the Western Pacific had the highest need of rehabilitation services (610 million people [588-636] and 83 million YLDs [62-106]). The disease area that contributed most to prevalence was musculoskeletal disorders (1·71 billion people [1·68-1·80]), with low back pain being the most prevalent condition in 134 of the 204 countries analysed. INTERPRETATION: To our knowledge, this is the first study to produce a global estimate of the need for rehabilitation services and to show that at least one in every three people in the world needs rehabilitation at some point in the course of their illness or injury. This number counters the common view of rehabilitation as a service required by only few people. We argue that rehabilitation needs to be brought close to communities as an integral part of primary health care to reach more people in need. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Data gaps towards health development goals, 47 low- and middle-income countries.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the availability and gaps in data for measuring progress towards health-related sustainable development goals and other targets in selected low- and middle-income countries. METHODS: We used 14 international population surveys to evaluate the health data systems in the 47 least developed countries over the years 2015-2020. We reviewed the survey instruments to determine whether they contained tools that could be used to measure 46 health-related indicators defined by the World Health Organization. We recorded the number of countries with data available on the indicators from these surveys. FINDINGS: Twenty-seven indicators were measurable by the surveys we identified. The two health emergency indicators were not measurable by current surveys. The percentage of countries that used surveys to collect data over 2015-2020 were lowest for tuberculosis (2/47; 4.3%), hepatitis B (3/47; 6.4%), human immunodeficiency virus (11/47; 23.4%), child development status and child abuse (both 13/47; 27.7%), compared with safe drinking water (37/47; 78.7%) and births attended by skilled health personnel (36/47; 76.6%). Nineteen countries collected data on 21 or more indicators over 2015-2020 while nine collected data on no indicators; over 2018-2020 these numbers reduced to six and 20, respectively. CONCLUSION: Examining selected international surveys provided a quick summary of health data available in the 47 least developed countries. We found major gaps in health data due to long survey cycles and lack of appropriate survey instruments. Novel indicators and survey instruments would be needed to track the fast-changing situation of health emergencies.

Demographic and environmental factors associated with disability in India, Laos, and Tajikistan: a population-based cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: The number of people experiencing functional limitations due to health conditions (capacity) is expected to increase in low and middle-income countries as populations age and rates of non-communicable disease rise. This trend could raise the prevalence and levels of disability worldwide. Understanding the demographic and environmental factors associated with disability can inform the design of policy interventions to make societies more accessible and inclusive for all. METHODS: Approximately 2,500-3,000 participants in each of India, Laos, and Tajikistan responded to the Gallup World Poll and the World Health Organization's Brief Model Disability Survey through face-to-face interviews. For each country, random forest regression was performed to explore the associations of demographic and environmental factors with disability while controlling for capacity. Using the variable importance measures generated by the random forest models, linear regression models were built in a stepwise manner for each country to predict disability level based on these contextual factors. RESULTS: Capacity was strongly associated with disability in all three countries. Most of the variance in disability was explained by minimally adjusted linear models that included only capacity, sex, and age. Inclusion of additional demographic factors and environmental factors explained slightly more of the variance in disability score. Across all three countries, the level of basic infrastructure, public services, and financial stability were moderately associated with disability. Age, sex, employment status, the use of assistive technologies, and other factors had associations with disability that were highly variable across countries. CONCLUSION: While capacity was the main determinant of disability, individual demographic and environmental factors were associated with disability in a country-specific manner while controlling for the effects of capacity.

The comparative importance of mental and physical disorders for health-related days out of role in the general population of Saudi Arabia.

BACKGROUND: A major component of illness burden is role impairment. As part of the recently-completed Saudi National Mental Health Survey (SNMHS), we compare the number of days out of role in the Saudi population associated with ten core mental disorders assessed in the survey to those associated with ten commonly occurring chronic physical disorders. METHODS: The SNMHS was a household survey that assessed prevalence of ten common anxiety, mood, disruptive behavior, and eating disorders in a nationally representative sample of n = 1981 citizens of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) ages 15-65. Comparison information was obtained on prevalence of ten common chronic physical disorders and number of health-related days out of role (DOR) in the 30 days before interview. Generalized linear models were used to examine univariate and multivariable associations of disorders with DOR and to calculate population attributable risk (PAR) separately and overall for the disorders controlling for socio-demographics. RESULTS: 19.9% of respondents had one or more of the selected mental disorders and 47.1% had one or more of the selected physical disorders. Nine mental disorders and two physical disorders were associated with increased DOR. PAR was 32.9% for mental disorders, 27.0% for physical disorders, and 59.9% for both combined. CONCLUSIONS: Mental disorders are associated with a substantial proportion of all health-related DOR in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Programs to detect and treat mental disorders might lead to substantially decreased role impairment in the Kingdom.

Episodic Memory and Verbal Fluency Tasks: Normative Data from Nine Nationally Representative Samples.

OBJECTIVE: This study aims to generate country-specific norms for two episodic memory tasks and a verbal fluency test among middle-aged and older adults using nationally representative data from nine low-, middle-, and high-income countries. METHOD: Data from nine countries in Africa, Asia, Europe, and Latin America were analyzed (n = 42,116; aged 50 years or older). Episodic memory was assessed with the word list memory (three trials of immediate recall) and word list recall (delayed recall). Verbal fluency was measured through the animal naming task. Multiple linear regression models with country-specific adjustments for gender, age, education, and residential area were carried out. RESULTS: Both age and education showed high influence on test performance (i.e. lower cognitive performance with increasing age and decreasing years of education, respectively), while the effect of sex and residential area on cognitive function was neither homogeneous across countries nor across cognitive tasks. CONCLUSIONS: Our study provided sex-, age-, education-, and residential area-specific regression-based norms that were obtained from one of the largest normative study worldwide on verbal recall and fluency tests to date. Findings derived from this study will be especially useful for clinicians and researchers based at countries where cognitive norms are limited.

Mediators of the socioeconomic status and life satisfaction relationship in older adults: a multi-country structural equation modeling approach.

OBJECTIVES: Socioeconomic status (SES) relates to life satisfaction in old age, although the underlying mechanisms remain unclear. Health and subjective social status have shown to be related to both SES and life satisfaction. This study aims to test the mediating role of health and subjective social status in old age, and to analyze if these potential mediations vary among three European countries with different socioeconomic characteristics and welfare regimes. METHOD: The sample comprised 7,272 participants aged 50+ from COURAGE in Europe study, a household survey carried out in 2011-2012 on nationally representative samples from Finland, Poland, and Spain. A Multiple Indicators, Multiple Causes approach based on multi-group Structural Equation Modeling was implemented to test mediating effects. RESULTS: The structural invariance model showed an adequate fit (CFI = 0.971, RMSEA = 0.061). Health and subjective social status invariantly mediated the relationship between SES and life satisfaction across countries with different socioeconomic characteristics and welfare regimes. SES direct effects explained 0.83-0.85% of life satisfaction variance, whilst indirect effects explained 2.29-2.36% of life satisfaction variance via health, 3.30-3.42% via subjective social status, and 0.06% via both mediating variables. CONCLUSION: Policies aimed at increasing the SES of the older adults may entail multiple benefits, resulting in better subjective social status, health, and life satisfaction outcomes, thus fostering healthy aging of the population.

Toward measuring effective treatment coverage: critical bottlenecks in quality- and user-adjusted coverage for major depressive disorder.

BACKGROUND: Major depressive disorder (MDD) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality. Shortfalls in treatment quantity and quality are well-established, but the specific gaps in pharmacotherapy and psychotherapy are poorly understood. This paper analyzes the gap in treatment coverage for MDD and identifies critical bottlenecks. METHODS: Seventeen surveys were conducted across 15 countries by the World Health Organization-World Mental Health Surveys Initiative. Of 35 012 respondents, 3341 met DSM-IV criteria for 12-month MDD. The following components of effective treatment coverage were analyzed: (a) any mental health service utilization; (b) adequate pharmacotherapy; (c) adequate psychotherapy; and (d) adequate severity-specific combination of both. RESULTS: MDD prevalence was 4.8% (s.e., 0.2). A total of 41.8% (s.e., 1.1) received any mental health services, 23.2% (s.e., 1.5) of which was deemed effective. This 90% gap in effective treatment is due to lack of utilization (58%) and inadequate quality or adherence (32%). Critical bottlenecks are underutilization of psychotherapy (26 percentage-points reduction in coverage), underutilization of psychopharmacology (13-point reduction), inadequate physician monitoring (13-point reduction), and inadequate drug-type (10-point reduction). High-income countries double low-income countries in any mental health service utilization, adequate pharmacotherapy, adequate psychotherapy, and adequate combination of both. Severe cases are more likely than mild-moderate cases to receive either adequate pharmacotherapy or psychotherapy, but less likely to receive an adequate combination. CONCLUSIONS: Decision-makers need to increase the utilization and quality of pharmacotherapy and psychotherapy. Innovations such as telehealth for training and supervision plus non-specialist or community resources to deliver pharmacotherapy and psychotherapy could address these bottlenecks.

Inflammation and central adiposity as mediators of depression and uncontrolled diabetes in the study on global AGEing and adult health (SAGE).

OBJECTIVES: Diabetes and depression are commonly present in the same individuals, suggesting the possibility of underlying shared physiological processes. Inflammation, as assessed with the biomarker C-reactive protein (CRP), has not consistently explained the observed relationship between diabetes and depression, although both are associated with inflammation and share proposed inflammatory mechanisms. Central adiposity has also been associated with both conditions, potentially by causing increased inflammation. This study uses the World Health Organization's Study on global AGEing and adult health (SAGE) Mexico Wave 1 biomarker data (n = 1831) to evaluate if inflammation and central adiposity mediate the relationship between depression and diabetes. METHODS: Depression was estimated using a behavior-based diagnostic algorithm, inflammation using venous dried blood spot (DBS) CRP, central adiposity using waist-to-height ratio (WHtR), and uncontrolled diabetes using venous DBS-glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c). RESULTS: The association between depression and uncontrolled diabetes was partially mediated by CRP before but not after WHtR was considered. When WHtR was added to the model, it partially mediated the relationship between diabetes and depression while fully mediating the relationship between depression and CRP. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that central adiposity may be a more significant mediator between diabetes and depression than inflammation and account for the relationship between these disorders and inflammation. Depression may cause an increase in central adiposity, which then may lead to diabetes, but the increase in known systemic inflammatory pathways caused by central adiposity may not be the key pathological mechanism.

Survival of people aged 50 years and older by HIV and HIV treatment status: findings from three waves of the SAGE-Wellbeing of Older People Study (SAGE-WOPS) in Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Data on the survival status of older adults on antiretroviral treatment (ART) are scarce in sub-Saharan Africa. The objective of this study was to determine the survival status of people aged 50 years and older who were HIV-negative, HIV-positive not on ART, and HIV-positive on ART. METHODS: We used three waves of data from the World Health Organisation Study on Global Ageing and adult health- Well Being of Older People Study cohort in Uganda, conducted in 2009, 2012-2013 and 2015-2016. The cohort included HIV-negative and HIV-positive persons aged 50 years and older recruited from multiple rural and peri-urban sites in Uganda. Data were collected using interviewer-administered questionnaire. Time-dependent ART data were collected from medical records using a data-abstraction form. This study was conducted before the universal test and treat policy came into effect. We fitted Cox survival models to estimate hazard ratios to compare the risk of death between groups, adjusted for age, sex, marital status and hypertension. RESULTS: Of 623 participants, 517 (82.9%) of respondents had follow-up data and were included in this analysis. We observed 1571 person-years of follow-up from 274 people who were HIV-negative, and 1252 from 243 who were HIV-positive. The estimated mortality adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) was 1.89 (95% CI 1.0-3.4; p = 0.04) among people living with HIV compared to HIV-negative people. The aHR for mortality among people receiving ART compared with HIV-negative people was 1.75 (95% CI 0.9-3.5). People who were HIV-positive and not receiving ART had the greatest risk of death (aHR = 2.09, 95% CI 1.0-4.4 compared with HIV negative participants). The aHR for HIV-positive people not receiving ART, compared to those who were on treatment, was 1.19 (95% CI 0.6-2.5). CONCLUSION: Older adults living with HIV on ART had a risk of mortality that was nearly twice as high as HIV-negative adults. Further analyses of longitudinal data should be done to understand factors that affect the survival of older adults on ART.

Pre-marital predictors of marital violence in the WHO World Mental Health (WMH) Surveys.

PURPOSE: Intimate partner violence (IPV) is a pervasive public health problem. Existing research has focused on reports from victims and few studies have considered pre-marital factors. The main objective of this study was to identify pre-marital predictors of IPV in the current marriage using information obtained from husbands and wives. METHODS: Data from were obtained from married heterosexual couples in six countries. Potential predictors included demographic and relationship characteristics, adverse childhood experiences, dating violence, and psychiatric disorders. Reports of IPV and other characteristics from husbands and wives were considered independently and in relation to spousal reports. RESULTS: Overall, 14.4% of women were victims of IPV in the current marriage. Analyses identified ten significant variables including age at first marriage (husband), education, relative number of previous marriages (wife), history of one or more categories of childhood adversity (husband or wife), history of dating violence (husband or wife), early initiation of sexual intercourse (husband or wife), and four combinations of internalizing and externalizing disorders. The final model was moderately predictive of marital violence, with the 5% of women accounting for 18.6% of all cases of marital IPV. CONCLUSIONS: Results from this study advance understanding of pre-marital predictors of IPV within current marriages, including the importance of considering differences in the experiences of partners prior to marriage and may provide a foundation for more targeted primary prevention efforts.

Cross-national prevalence and factors associated with suicide ideation and attempts in older and young-and-middle age people.

Objectives: To report prevalence estimates of 12-month suicide ideation and attempts in young-and-middle age adults and older people, as well as their respective associated factors.Methods: A total of 52,150 community-dwelling adults who completed the adapted version of the Composite International Diagnostic Interview-Depression Module were included from SAGE and COURAGE in Europe studies. The presence of 12-month suicide ideation and attempts was measured among the participants who screened positively in the Depression Module. Global and national prevalence estimates of 12-month suicide ideation and attempts were calculated according to the total sample. Logistic regression analyses were conducted to separately determine factors associated with suicidal ideation and with suicide attempts in young-and-middle age adults and older adults.Results: Higher estimates of 12-month suicidal ideation were found for high-income countries and people aged 65 years and older. Higher negative affect, higher disability, and presence of food insecurity were associated with 12-month suicidal ideation and suicide attempts for young-and-middle-adults and older adults. Higher isolation, being female, and greater number of chronic health conditions were also related to 12-month suicidal ideation in both age groups. Younger age was associated with 12-month suicidal ideation for older people, and with suicide attempts in the young-and-middle age group. Finally, higher income was related to lower rates of 12-month suicidal ideation for the young-and-middle age group.Conclusions: Older people are at increased risk of suicidal ideation globally and of suicide attempts in some countries. There were common and different factors related to suicide in adults and older adults.

Pain rates in general population for the period 1991-2015 and 10-years prediction: results from a multi-continent age-period-cohort analysis.

BACKGROUND: Pain is a common symptom, often associated with neurological and musculoskeletal conditions, and experienced especially by females and by older people. The aims of this study are to evaluate the temporal variations of pain rates among general populations for the period 1991-2015 and to project 10-year pain rates. METHODS: We used the harmonized dataset of ATHLOS project, which included 660,028 valid observations in the period 1990-2015 and we applied Bayesian age-period-cohort modeling to perform projections up to 2025. The harmonized Pain variable covers the content "self-reported pain experienced at the time of the interview", with a dichotomous (yes or no) modality. RESULTS: Pain rates were higher among females, older subjects, in recent periods, and among observations referred to cohorts of subjects born between the 20s and the 60s. The 10-year projections indicate a noteworthy increase in pain rates in both genders and particularly among subjects aged 66 or over, for whom a 10-20% increase in pain rate is foreseen; among females only, a 10-15% increase in pain rates is foreseen for those aged 36-50. CONCLUSIONS: Projected increase in pain rates will require specific interventions by health and welfare systems, as pain is responsible for limited quality of subjective well-being, reduced employment rates and hampered work performance. Worksite and lifestyle interventions will therefore be needed to limit the impact of projected higher pain rates.

Predictors of pain in general ageing populations: results from a multi-country analysis based on ATHLOS harmonized database.

BACKGROUND: Pain is a common symptom, often associated with neurological and musculoskeletal conditions, and experienced especially by females and by older people, and with increasing trends in general populations. Different risk factors for pain have been identified, but generally from studies with limited samples and a limited number of candidate predictors. The aim of this study is to evaluate the predictors of pain from a large set of variables and respondents. METHODS: We used part of the harmonized dataset of ATHLOS project, selecting studies and waves with a longitudinal course, and in which pain was absent at baseline and with no missing at follow-up. Predictors were selected based on missing distribution and univariable association with pain, and were selected from the following domains: Socio-demographic and economic characteristics, Lifestyle and health behaviours, Health status and functional limitations, Diseases, Physical measures, Cognition, personality and other psychological measures, and Social environment. Hierarchical logistic regression models were then applied to identify significant predictors. RESULTS: A total of 13,545 subjects were included of whom 5348 (39.5%) developed pain between baseline and the average 5.2 years' follow-up. Baseline risk factors for pain were female gender (OR 1.34), engaging in vigorous exercise (OR 2.51), being obese (OR 1.36) and suffering from the loss of a close person (OR 1.88) whereas follow-up risk factors were low energy levels/fatigue (1.93), difficulties with walking (1.69), self-rated health referred as poor (OR 2.20) or average to moderate (OR 1.57) and presence of sleep problems (1.80). CONCLUSIONS: Our results showed that 39.5% of respondents developed pain over a five-year follow-up period, that there are proximal and distal risk factors for pain, and that part of them are directly modifiable. Actions aimed at improving sleep, reducing weight among obese people and treating fatigue would positively impact on pain onset, and avoiding vigorous exercise should be advised to people aged 60 or over, in particular if female or obese.

Sociodemographic Indicators of Health Status Using a Machine Learning Approach and Data from the English Longitudinal Study of Aging (ELSA).

BACKGROUND Studies on the effects of sociodemographic factors on health in aging now include the use of statistical models and machine learning. The aim of this study was to evaluate the determinants of health in aging using machine learning methods and to compare the accuracy with traditional methods. MATERIAL AND METHODS The health status of 6,209 adults, age <65 years (n=1,585), 65-79 years (n=3,267), and >80 years (n=1,357) were measured using an established health metric (0-100) that incorporated physical function and activities of daily living (ADL). Data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) included socio-economic and sociodemographic characteristics and history of falls. Health-trend and personal-fitted variables were generated as predictors of health metrics using three machine learning methods, random forest (RF), deep learning (DL) and the linear model (LM), with calculation of the percentage increase in mean square error (%IncMSE) as a measure of the importance of a given predictive variable, when the variable was removed from the model. RESULTS Health-trend, physical activity, and personal-fitted variables were the main predictors of health, with the%incMSE of 85.76%, 63.40%, and 46.71%, respectively. Age, employment status, alcohol consumption, and household income had the%incMSE of 20.40%, 20.10%, 16.94%, and 13.61%, respectively. Performance of the RF method was similar to the traditional LM (p=0.7), but RF significantly outperformed DL (p=0.006). CONCLUSIONS Machine learning methods can be used to evaluate multidimensional longitudinal health data and may provide accurate results with fewer requirements when compared with traditional statistical modeling.

Social determinants of health and frailty are associated with all-cause mortality in older adults.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the longitudinal association between the social determinants of health (SDH) and frailty status with all-cause mortality in older Mexican adults. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Longitudinal study with a sample of adults aged 60 and over of Study on Global AGEing and Adult Health (SAGE) in Mexico. A Cox proportional hazard model was used to estimate the SDH and frailty-related hazard ratios (HR) for mortality over the study period. RESULTS: Overall mortality rate was 16.9%. Higher education, having a higher frequency of inter-personal contacts (HR=0.96; p<0.01) reduced the risk of dying, after adjusting for potential confounders. While, not counting on someone to trust (HR= 1.59; p<0.03) and having a sense a lack of control over important decisions in life increased the mortality risk. CONCLUSIONS: Given that frailty and the SDH affect health using independent pathways, public health systems in Mexico could benefit from increasing the capacity of identifying frail and isolated older adults and providing a risk-stratified health care accordingly.

OBJETIVO: Examinar la asociación longitudinal entre los determinantes sociales en salud (DSS) y la fragilidad con la mortalidad por todas las causas en adultos mayores mexicanos. MATERIAL Y MÉTODOS: Estudio longitudinal con una muestra de adultos mayores de 60 años o más del estudio Envejecimiento Global y Salud de los Adultos (SAGE, por sus siglas en inglés) en México. Se utilizó el modelo riesgos proporcionales de Cox para estimar la asociación entre DSS y la fragilidad en la mortalidad. RESULTADOS: La tasa de mortalidad general fue 16.9%. Tener mayor educación y una mayor frecuencia de contactos interpersonales (HR= 0.96, p<0.01) reducen el riesgo de morir, después de ajustar por covariables. Mientras tanto, no contar con alguien en quien confiar (HR= 1.59; p<0.03) y tener una sensación de falta de control sobre las decisiones importantes en la vida aumentan el riesgo de mortalidad. CONCLUSIONES: Dado que la fragilidad y los DSS inciden sobre la salud usando vías independientes, el sistema de salud de México se beneficiaría al incrementar su capacidad para detectar a los adultos mayores frágiles y con aislamiento social, para proveer cuidados a la salud.

Rethinking Disability.

Disability as a health outcome deserves more attention than it has so far received. With people living longer and the epidemiological transition from infectious to noncommunicable diseases as the major cause of health burden, we need to focus attention on disability - the non-fatal impact of heath conditions - over and above our concern for causes of mortality.With the first Global Burden of Disease study, WHO provided a metric that enabled the comparison of the impact of diseases, drawing on a model of disability that focused on decrements of health. This model has since been elaborated in the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health as being either a feature of the individual or arising out of the interaction between the individual's health condition and contextual factors. The basis of WHO's ongoing work is a set of principles: that disability is a universal human experience; that disability is not determined solely by the underlying health condition or predicated merely on the presence of specific health conditions; and finally, that disability lies on a continuum from no to complete disability. To determine whether interventions at individual or population levels are effective, an approach to disability measurement that allows for an appropriate and fair comparison across health conditions is needed. WHO has designed the Model Disability Survey (MDS) to collect information relevant to understand the lived experience of disability, including the person's capacity to perform tasks actions in daily life, their actual performance, the barriers and facilitators in the environment they experience, and their health conditions. As disability gains prominence within the development agenda in the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, and the implementation of the United Nations Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities, the MDS will provide the data to monitor the progress of countries on meeting their obligations.The lesson learned from WHO's activities is that disability is a universal human experience, in the sense that everyone can be placed on a continuum of functioning and either currently experiences or is vulnerable to experiencing disability over the course of their lives. This understanding of disability is the key to mainstreaming disability within the public discourse.

The cross-national structure of mental disorders: results from the World Mental Health Surveys.

BACKGROUND: The patterns of comorbidity among mental disorders have led researchers to model the underlying structure of psychopathology. While studies have suggested a structure including internalizing and externalizing disorders, less is known with regard to the cross-national stability of this model. Moreover, little data are available on the placement of eating disorders, bipolar disorder and psychotic experiences (PEs) in this structure. METHODS: We evaluated the structure of mental disorders with data from the World Health Organization Composite International Diagnostic Interview, including 15 lifetime mental disorders and six PEs. Respondents (n = 5478-15 499) were included from 10 high-, middle- and lower middle-income countries across the world aged 18 years or older. Confirmatory factor analyses (CFAs) were used to evaluate and compare the fit of different factor structures to the lifetime disorder data. Measurement invariance was evaluated with multigroup CFA (MG-CFA). RESULTS: A second-order model with internalizing and externalizing factors and fear and distress subfactors best described the structure of common mental disorders. MG-CFA showed that this model was stable across countries. Of the uncommon disorders, bipolar disorder and eating disorder were best grouped with the internalizing factor, and PEs with a separate factor. CONCLUSIONS: These results indicate that cross-national patterns of lifetime common mental-disorder comorbidity can be explained with a second-order underlying structure that is stable across countries and can be extended to also cover less common mental disorders.

Machine learning methodologies versus cardiovascular risk scores, in predicting disease risk.

BACKGROUND: The use of Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) risk estimation scores in primary prevention has long been established. However, their performance still remains a matter of concern. The aim of this study was to explore the potential of using ML methodologies on CVD prediction, especially compared to established risk tool, the HellenicSCORE. METHODS: Data from the ATTICA prospective study (n = 2020 adults), enrolled during 2001-02 and followed-up in 2011-12 were used. Three different machine-learning classifiers (k-NN, random forest, and decision tree) were trained and evaluated against 10-year CVD incidence, in comparison with the HellenicSCORE tool (a calibration of the ESC SCORE). Training datasets, consisting from 16 variables to only 5 variables, were chosen, with or without bootstrapping, in an attempt to achieve the best overall performance for the machine learning classifiers. RESULTS: Depending on the classifier and the training dataset the outcome varied in efficiency but was comparable between the two methodological approaches. In particular, the HellenicSCORE showed accuracy 85%, specificity 20%, sensitivity 97%, positive predictive value 87%, and negative predictive value 58%, whereas for the machine learning methodologies, accuracy ranged from 65 to 84%, specificity from 46 to 56%, sensitivity from 67 to 89%, positive predictive value from 89 to 91%, and negative predictive value from 24 to 45%; random forest gave the best results, while the k-NN gave the poorest results. CONCLUSIONS: The alternative approach of machine learning classification produced results comparable to that of risk prediction scores and, thus, it can be used as a method of CVD prediction, taking into consideration the advantages that machine learning methodologies may offer.