Development and validation of a preoperative risk nomogram prediction model for gastric gastrointestinal stromal tumors.

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS: Gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GIST) carry a potential risk of malignancy, and the treatment of GIST varies for different risk levels. However, there is no systematic preoperative assessment protocol to predict the malignant potential of GIST. The aim of this study was to develop a reliable and clinically applicable preoperative nomogram prediction model to predict the malignant potential of gastric GIST. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients with a pathological diagnosis of gastric GIST from January 2015 to December 2021 were screened retrospectively. Univariate and multivariate logistic analyses were used to identify independent risk factors for gastric GIST with high malignancy potential. Based on these independent risk factors, a nomogram model predicting the malignant potential of gastric GIST was developed and the model was validated in the validation group. RESULTS: A total of 494 gastric GIST patients were included in this study and allocated to a development group (n = 345) and a validation group (n = 149). In the development group, multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that tumor size, tumor ulceration, CT growth pattern and monocyte-to- lymphocyte ratio (MLR) were independent risk factors for gastric GIST with high malignancy potential. The AUC of the model were 0.932 (95% CI 0.890-0.974) and 0.922 (95% CI 0.868-0.977) in the development and validation groups, respectively. The best cutoff value for the development group was 0.184, and the sensitivity and specificity at this value were 0.895 and 0.875, respectively. The calibration curves indicated good agreement between predicted and actual observed outcomes, while the DCA indicated that the nomogram model had clinical application. CONCLUSIONS: Tumor size, tumor ulceration, CT growth pattern and MLR are independent risk factors for high malignancy potential gastric GIST, and a nomogram model developed based on these factors has a high ability to predict the malignant potential of gastric GIST.

Risk factors and a nomogram for prediction of post-endoscopic submucosal dissection electrocoagulation syndrome for superficial colorectal lesions.

BACKGROUND: Post-endoscopic submucosal dissection electrocoagulation syndrome (PEECS) is an uncommon complication after colorectal endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD). This study aimed to explore the risk factors of PEECS for superficial colorectal lesions based on the latest and consistent diagnostic criteria and to establish a predictive nomogram model. METHODS: This retrospective analysis included patients with superficial colorectal lesions who underwent endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) between June 2008 and December 2021 in our center. The independent risk factors of PEECS for superficial colorectal lesions were identified using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) logistic regression analysis, as well as univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression, and derived predictive nomogram model was constructed. RESULTS: Among the 555 patients with superficial colorectal lesions enrolled, PEECS occurred in 45 (8.1%) patients. Multivariate logistic regression revealed that female sex (OR 3.94, P < 0.001), age > 50 years (OR 4.28, P = 0.02), injury to muscle layer (OR 10.38, P < 0.001), non-lifting sign (OR 2.20, P = 0.04) and inadequate bowel preparation (OR 5.61, P < 0.001) were independent risk factors of PEECS for superficial colorectal lesions. A predictive nomogram model was constructed based on the above five predictors. For this model, the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was 0.855, the calibration curve exhibited good consistency between the prediction and the actual observation, and the C-index was confirmed as 0.843 by bootstrap method. CONCLUSION: Female sex, age > 50 years, injury to muscle layer, non-lifting sign and inadequate bowel preparation were independent risk factors of PEECS for superficial colorectal lesions. The proposed nomogram could accurately predict the risk of PEECS for superficial colorectal lesions.

Nomogram for predicting electrocoagulation syndrome after endoscopic submucosal dissection of esophageal tumors.

BACKGROUND: Endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) was widely used for the removal of esophageal tumors, and post-endoscopic submucosal dissection electrocoagulation syndrome (PEECS) was one of the postoperative adverse events. The aim of this research was to develop and validate a model to predict electrocoagulation syndrome after endoscopic submucosal dissection of esophageal tumors. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Patients who underwent esophageal ESD in our hospital were retrospectively included. A predictive nomogram was established based on the results of multivariate logistic regression analysis, and bootstrapping resampling was used for internal validation. Besides, the clinical usefulness of the nomogram was evaluated using decision curve analysis (DCA) and clinical impact curve. RESULTS: A total of 552 patients who underwent esophageal ESD were included in the study, and the incidence of PPECS was 12.5% (69/552). Risk factors associated with PEECS (p < 0.1) were analyzed by multivariate logistic regression analysis, and the final model included four variables, namely gender, diabetes, tumor size and operation time. The predictive nomogram was constructed based on the above four variables, and the area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.811 (95% CI 0.767-0.855). The calibration curve of the nomogram presented good agreement between the predicted and actual probabilities. DCA showed that the model improved patient outcomes by helping to assess the risk of PEECS in patients compared to an all-or-no treatment strategy. In addition, the clinical impact curve of the model also indicates that the nomogram has a high clinical net benefit. CONCLUSION: In conclusion, we have developed a predictive nomogram for PEECS after ESD for esophageal tumors with good predictive accuracy and discrimination. This predictive nomogram can be effectively used to identify high-risk patients with PEECS, which will help clinicians in clinical decision-making and early intervention.

Etiological Changes and Prognosis of Hospitalized Patients with Acute Pancreatitis Over a 15-Year Period.

BACKGROUND: The worldwide incidence of acute pancreatitis (AP) is increasing, but the dominant etiology of AP may vary by country. Mixed etiologies are involved in the increase in the number of AP patients. AIMS: This study was to analyze the etiological changes and prognosis of AP patients and explore the prognosis of AP patients with mixed etiologies. METHODS: Using a retrospective analysis method, AP patients hospitalized from January 2007 to December 2021 were selected from a pancreatic center in Nanchang, China. Trends in the main etiologies were analyzed, and the severity and prognosis of different etiologies were compared. RESULTS: A total of 10,071 patients were included. Cholelithiasis (56.0%), hyperlipidemia (25.3%), and alcohol (6.5%) were the top three etiologies. The proportion of acute biliary pancreatitis (ABP) showed a decreasing trend, while the proportion of hypertriglyceridemic pancreatitis (HTGP) and alcoholic AP showed an increasing trend (all ptrend < 0.001). The incidence of organ failure and necrotizing pancreatitis was higher in patients with HTGP than in those with AP induced by other etiologies (all p < 0.05). There was no statistically significant difference in mortality among patients with different etiologies. Patients with AP due to a mixed hypertriglyceridemia-alcoholic etiology had higher ICU admission rates and were more severe than those with AP induced by other mixed etiologies. CONCLUSION: In the past 15 years, the proportion of ABP has trended downward, while those of HTGP and alcoholic AP have risen. Among patients with mixed etiologies, those with a mixed hypertriglyceridemia-alcoholic etiology had a worse prognosis.

Moderately severe acute pancreatitis after snake bite: a case report from Southern China.

Venomous snakebites are not rare worldwide, and this is also the situation in the mountainous regions of southern China, where they pose a serious health risk to the local population. Snake venom usually causes a variety of clinical symptoms, such as local pain and swelling, systemic coagulation system abnormalities, and shock, but rarely leads to acute pancreatitis. In this report, we presented a rare case of moderately severe acute pancreatitis caused by snake venom even after prompt antivenom treatment. The patient was relieved, obviously, with effective treatment of acute pancreatitis and was discharged without severe complications. Although acute pancreatitis after snake bite is a rarity, its serious complications and lethality still deserve our utmost attention, and timely and standardized treatment of acute pancreatitis is needed in addition to antivenom treatment.

Identification of a Diagnosis and Therapeutic Inflammatory Response-Related Gene Signature Associated with Esophageal Adenocarcinoma.

The purpose of this study is to identify the key regulatory genes related to the inflammatory response of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) and to find new diagnosis and therapeutic options. We downloaded the dataset GSE72874 from the Gene Expression Omnibus database for this study. Weighted gene co-expression network analysis (WGCNA) and differentially expressed genes (DEGs) analysis were used to find common inflammatory response-related genes (IRRGs) in EAC. The relationship between normal and tumor immune infiltration was analyzed using an online database of CIBERSORTx. Finally, 920 DEGs were identified, of which 5 genes were key IRRGs associated with EAC, including three down-regulated genes GNA15, MXD1, and NOD2, and two down-regulated genes PLAUR and TIMP1. Further research found that GNA15, MXD1, and NOD2 were down-regulated, PLAUR and TIMP1 were up-regulated in Barrett's esophagus (BE). In addition, we found that the expression of GNA15 and MXD1 in normal esophageal squamous epithelial cells decreased after ethanol treatment, while the expression of PLAUR and TIMP1 increased after ethanol treatment. Compared with normal esophageal tissue, immune cells infiltrated such as plasma cells, macrophages M0, macrophages M1, macrophages M2, dendritic cells activated, and mast cells activated were significantly increased in EAC, while immune cells infiltrated such as T cells CD4 memory resting, T cells follicular helper, NK cells resting, and dendritic cells resting were significantly reduced. The receiver operating characteristic curve indicated that GNA15, MXD1, NOD2, PLAUR and TIMP1 expression had a performed well in diagnosing EAC from healthy control. GNA15, MXD1, NOD2, PLAUR and TIMP1 were identified and validated as novel potential biomarkers for early diagnosis and may be new molecular targets for treatment of EAC.

Comparison of the efficacy and safety of an oral sulfate solution and 3-L polyethylene glycol on bowel preparation before colonoscopy: a phase III multicenter randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Adequate bowel preparation is crucial for clear mucosal visualization during colonoscopy. We aimed to comprehensively compare oral sulfate solution (OSS) and 3-L split-dose polyethylene glycol (PEG) for bowel preparation before colonoscopy. METHODS: This randomized, active-controlled, noninferiority study was performed in 10 medical centers. Eligible subjects were enrolled to receive OSS or 3-L PEG in a split-dose regimen. The quality of bowel preparation, adverse reactions, and acceptability were evaluated. The quality of bowel preparation was evaluated using the Boston Bowel Preparation Scale. Safety was evaluated by adverse reactions. The study population was divided into the full analysis set (FAS), the safety set, the modified FAS (mFAS), and the per-protocol set (PPS). RESULTS: Three hundred forty-eight potentially eligible subjects were enrolled. Three hundred forty-four subjects were included in the FAS and safety set, 340 subjects were included in the mFAS, and 328 subjects were included in the PPS. Adequate bowel preparation of the OSS was not inferior to 3-L PEG in the mFAS (98.22% vs 97.66%) and the PPS (98.17% vs 98.78%). There was no significant difference in acceptability between the 2 groups (94.74% vs 94.80%, P = .9798). Overall adverse reactions were similar (50.88% vs 44.51%, P = .2370) between the 2 groups. CONCLUSIONS: The split-dose OSS regimen was not inferior to the split-dose 3-L PEG regimen for the quality of bowel preparation in a Chinese adult population. The safety and acceptability of the 2 groups were similar. (Clinical trial registration number: NCT05465889.).

Risk factors for inadequate bowel preparation before colonoscopy: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Colonoscopy is the standard and most effective screening tool for colonic diseases and the accuracy of colonoscopy depends on the quality of bowel preparation. The aim of this study was to analyze the risk factors for inadequate bowel preparation before colonoscopy. METHODS: In this retrospective study, patients who underwent colonoscopy in 2018 and received 3 L of Polyethylene Glycol Electrolytes powder were included. They were instructed to drink 1.5 L the night before the colonoscopy and 1.5 L 4-6 h before the procedure given in doses of 250 ml every 10 min with 30 ml of simethicone given 4-6 h before the colonoscopy. Patient- and procedure-related parameters were recorded. An adequate bowel preparation was defined as all 3 segments rated 2 or 3 on the Boston Bowel Preparation scale. Risk factors for inadequate bowel preparation were identified using multivariate logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: A total of 6720 patients were included in the present study. The mean age of these patients was 49.7 ± 13.0 years old. Inadequate bowel preparation was found in 233 (12.4%), 139 (6.4%), 131 (7%), 68 (8.6%) patients in spring, summer, autumn and winter respectively. On the multivariate analysis, male gender (OR: 1.295; 95% CI: 1.088-1.542; P = 0.005), inpatient status (OR: 1.377; 95% CI: 1.040-1.822; P = 0.025) and season (spring vs. winter, OR: 1.514; 95% CI: 1.139-2.012; P = 0.004) were the independent risk factors for inadequate bowel preparation. CONCLUSIONS: Male gender, inpatient status and spring season were the independent risk factors for inadequate bowel preparation. For patients with risk factors for inadequate bowel preparation, enhanced bowel preparation and instructions may help to optimize the quality of bowel preparation.

Albumin infusion may decrease the mortality of hypoalbuminemia patients with severe acute pancreatitis: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: At present, the relationship between severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) and albumin infusion is not clear. We aimed to identify the impact of serum albumin on the prognosis of SAP and the association between albumin infusions and mortality for hypoalbuminemia patients. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study that analyzed 1000 patients with SAP who were admitted to the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University between January 2010 and December 2021 using data from a prospectively maintained database. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was conducted to reveal the relationship between serum albumin within 1 week after admission and poor prognosis of SAP. Propensity score matching (PSM) analysis was adopted to evaluate the effect of albumin infusion for hypoalbuminemia patients with SAP. RESULTS: The prevalence of hypoalbuminemia (≤ 30 g/L) was 56.9% within 1 week after admission. Multivariate logistic regression identified that age (OR: 1.02; 95% CI: 1.00-1.04; P = 0.012), serum urea (OR: 1.08; 95% CI: 1.04-1.12; P < 0.001), serum calcium (OR: 0.27; 95% CI: 0.14-0.50; P < 0.001), lowest albumin level within 1 week after admission (OR: 0.93; 95% CI: 0.89-0.97; P = 0.002), and APACHE II score ≥ 15 (OR: 1.73; 95% CI: 1.19-2.51; P = 0.004) were independently associated with mortality. The PSM analysis demonstrated that mortality (OR: 0.52, 95% CI: 0.29-0.92, P = 0.023) was less common in albumin-infused than non-albumin-infused hypoalbuminemia patients. In subgroup analyses, doses > 100 g within 1 week after admission for hypoalbuminemia patients with albumin infusions was associated with lower mortality than doses ≤ 100 g (OR: 0.51, 95% CI: 0.28-0.90, P = 0.020). CONCLUSIONS: Hypoalbuminemia in early-stage SAP is significantly related to poor prognosis. However, albumin infusions could significantly decrease mortality in hypoalbuminemia patients with SAP. Additionally, infusing sufficient albumin within a week after admission may decrease mortality in hypoalbuminemia patients.

Prediction model for lymph node metastasis in superficial colorectal cancer: a better choice than computed tomography.

BACKGROUND: Risk evaluation of lymph node metastasis (LNM) in superficial colorectal cancer resected by endoscopic surgery is critical for determining subsequent therapeutic strategies, but the role of existing clinical methods, including computed tomography, remains limited. METHODS: Features of the nomogram were determined by logistic regression analysis, and the performance was validated by calibration plots, ROC curves and DCA curves in both the training set and the validation set. RESULTS: A total of 608 consecutive superficial CRC cases were randomly divided into 426 training and 182 validation cases. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses revealed that age < 50, tumour budding, lymphatic invasion and lower HDL levels were risk factors for LNM. Stepwise regression and the Hosmer‒Lemeshow goodness of fit test showed that the nomogram had good performance and discrimination, which was validated by ROC curves and calibration plots. Internal and external validation demonstrated that the nomogram had a higher C-index (training group, 0.749, validation group, 0.693). DCA and clinical impact curves graphically show that the use of the nomogram to predict LNM had remarkable predictive power. Finally, in comparison with CT diagnosis, the nomogram also visually showed higher superiority, as demonstrated by ROC, DCA and clinical impact curves. CONCLUSION: Using common clinicopathologic factors, a noninvasive nomogram for individualized prediction of LNM after endoscopic surgery was conveniently established. Nomograms have great superiority in the risk stratification of LNM compared with traditional CT imaging.

Comparable long-term survival outcomes of endoscopic therapy versus surgical therapy for T1-2N0M0 duodenal neuroendocrine tumors.

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS: The optimal treatment modality for T1-2N0M0 duodenal neuroendocrine tumors (DNETs) is still controversial. In this study, long-term survival outcomes were compared between the endoscopic therapy and surgical therapy for T1-2N0M0 DNETs using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients with DNETs from the SEER database were selected from 2004 to 2015. We used the Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test to compare long-term survival results between the endoscopic therapy and surgical therapy. An analysis of the multivariable Cox proportional hazards model was performed to identify risk factors for patient prognoses. The 1:1 propensity score matching (PSM) was performed to balance baseline data. RESULTS: A total of 816 patients with DNETs were included, of which 578 patients (70.8%) received endoscopic therapy and 238 patients (29.2%) received surgical therapy. Before the PSM, there was no difference between the two groups of patients with DNETs on long-term survival [5-year OS (86.1% vs. 87.9%, P = 0.45), 10-year OS (72.5% vs. 72.3%, P = 0.45)]. After adjusting covariates, we found endoscopic therapy and surgical therapy groups had comparable risks of overall survival (HR 0.86, 95% CI 0.60-1.23, P = 0.409) and cancer-specific survival (HR 1.68, 95% CI 0.74-3.83, P = 0.214). In the post-PSM analysis, there was no discernible difference between the endoscopic therapy and surgical therapy group. CONCLUSIONS: Our study found that for T1-2N0M0 DNETs patients, whose long-term OS and CSS results were similar for the endoscopic and surgical therapy groups. For these patients, endoscopic resection might be an optimal therapy modality.

Routine nasogastric tube placement after gastric endoscopic full-thickness resection of tumor size ≤ 2 cm may be unnecessary: a propensity score-matching analysis.

BACKGROUND: Endoscopic full-thickness resection is a common endoscopic procedure for treating gastrointestinal submucosal tumors. Nasogastric tube placement is frequently performed after abdominal surgery, but the routine use of this approach remains controversial. The aim of this research was to explore whether nasogastric tube placement after gastric endoscopic full-thickness resection is necessary. METHODS: A retrospective study enrolled patients who underwent gastric endoscopic full-thickness resection in our hospital between January 2014 and January 2019, and all the patients had a tumor size ≤ 2 cm. The patients were divided into two groups according to whether a nasogastric tube was placed. Postprocedural adverse events and hospital stay duration were compared between the two groups using 1:1 propensity score matching. RESULTS: A total of 461 patients were enrolled in this study, including 385 patients in the nasogastric tube group (NGT group) and 76 patients in the non-nasogastric tube group (non-NGT group). After matching, the baseline characteristics of 73 patients in the NGT group and 73 patients in the non-NGT group were balanced (p > 0.05). The postprocedural fever rate in the NGT group was significantly higher than that in the non-NGT group (23.3% vs. 9.6%, p = 0.044). 6.9% (5/73) of patients experienced severe nasogastric tube-related throat discomfort. However, the duration of hospitalization stay was not different between the two groups. CONCLUSIONS: For patients with tumor size ≤ 2 cm, routine nasogastric tube placement after gastric endoscopic full-thickness resection may be unnecessary.

The severity and infection of acute pancreatitis may increase the risk of bleeding in patients undergoing EUS-guided drainage and endoscopic necrosectomy: a large retrospective cohort.

BACKGROUND: There has been great progress in the use of endoscopic ultrasound (EUS)-guided drainage in acute pancreatitis patients using a novel lumen-apposing metal stent (LAMS) in the last decade, but some patients experience bleeding. Our research analyzed the preprocedural risk factors for bleeding. METHODS: From July 13, 2016 to June 23, 2021, we retrospectively analyzed all patients who received endoscopic drainage by the LAMS in our hospital. Univariate and multivariate statistical analyses were used to identify the independent risk factors. We plotted ROC curves based on the independent risk factors. RESULTS: A total of 205 patients were analyzed and 5 patients were excluded. A total of 200 patients were included in our research. Thirty (15%) patients presented with bleeding. In the multivariate analysis, computed tomography severity index score (CTSI) score [odds ratio (OR), 2.66; 95% CI: 1.31-5.38; P = 0.007], positive blood cultures [odds ratio (OR), 5.35; 95% CI: 1.31-21.9; P = 0.02], and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score [odds ratio (OR), 1.14; 95% CI: 1. 01-1.29; P = 0.045] were associated with bleeding. The area under the ROC curve of the combined predictive indicator was 0.79. CONCLUSION: Bleeding in endoscopic drainage by the LAMS is significantly associated with the CTSI score, positive blood cultures, and APACHE II score. This result could help clinicians make more appropriate choices.

Nomogram for predicting rebleeding after initial endoscopic epinephrine injection monotherapy hemostasis in patients with peptic ulcer bleeding: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Although the current guidelines recommend endoscopic combination therapy, endoscopic epinephrine injection (EI) monotherapy is still a simple, common and effective modality for treating peptic ulcer bleeding (PUB). However, the rebleeding risk after EI monotherapy is still high, and identifying rebleeding patients after EI monotherapy is unclear, which is highly important in clinical practice. This study aimed to identify risk factors and constructed a predictive nomogram related to rebleeding after EI monotherapy. METHODS: We consecutively and retrospectively analyzed 360 PUB patients who underwent EI monotherapy between March 2014 and July 2021 in our center. Then we identified independent risk factors associated with rebleeding after initial endoscopic EI monotherapy by multivariate logistic regression. A predictive nomogram was developed and validated based on the above predictors. RESULTS: Among all PUB patients enrolled, 51 (14.2%) had recurrent hemorrhage within 30 days after endoscopic EI monotherapy. After multivariate logistic regression, shock [odds ratio (OR) = 12.691, 95% confidence interval (CI) 5.129-31.399, p < 0.001], Rockall score (OR = 1.877, 95% CI 1.250-2.820, p = 0.002), tachycardia (heart rate > 100 beats/min) (OR = 2.610, 95% CI 1.098-6.203, p = 0.030), prolonged prothrombin time (PT > 13 s) (OR = 2.387, 95% CI 1.019-5.588, p = 0.045) and gastric ulcer (OR = 2.258, 95% CI 1.003-5.084, p = 0.049) were associated with an increased risk of rebleeding after an initial EI monotherapy treatment. A nomogram incorporating these independent high-risk factors showed good discrimination, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.876 (95% CI 0.817-0.934) (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: We developed a predictive nomogram of rebleeding after EI monotherapy, which had excellent prediction accuracy. This predictive nomogram can be conveniently used to identify low-risk rebleeding patients after EI monotherapy, allowing for decision-making in a clinical setting.

Development and validation of a model to predict rebleeding within three days after endoscopic hemostasis for high-risk peptic ulcer bleeding.

BACKGROUND: Peptic ulcer bleeding remains a typical medical emergency with significant morbidity and mortality. Peptic ulcer rebleeding often occurs within three days after emergent endoscopic hemostasis. Our study aims to develop a nomogram to predict rebleeding within three days after emergent endoscopic hemostasis for high-risk peptic ulcer bleeding. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed the data of 386 patients with bleeding ulcers and high-risk stigmata who underwent emergent endoscopic hemostasis between March 2014 and October 2018. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator method was used to identify predictors. The model was displayed as a nomogram. Internal validation was carried out using bootstrapping. The model was evaluated using the calibration plot, decision-curve analyses, and clinical impact curve. RESULTS: Overall, 386 patients meeting the inclusion criteria were enrolled, with 48 patients developed rebleeding within three days after initial endoscopic hemostasis. Predictors contained in the nomogram included albumin, prothrombin time, shock, haematemesis/melena and Forrest classification. The model showed good discrimination and good calibration with a C-index of 0.854 (C-index: 0.830 via bootstrapping validation). Decision-curve analyses and clinical impact curve also demonstrated that it was clinically valuable. CONCLUSION: This study presents a nomogram that incorporates clinical, laboratory, and endoscopic features, effectively predicting rebleeding within three days after emergent endoscopic hemostasis and identifying high-risk rebleeding patients with peptic ulcer bleeding. Trial registration This clinical trial has been registered in the ClinicalTrials.gov (ID: NCT04895904) approved by the International Committee of Medical Journal Editors (ICMJE).

The assessment of the ASGE-grading system of ERCP: a large-sample retrospective study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ASGE) has developed a complexity-grading system for endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) to predict technical success and adverse events. This study aimed to assess the association between the degree of difficulty for ERCP and the rates of success and adverse event, in turn demonstrating the validity and practicality of this system. METHODS: ERCP procedures performed in the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University from January 2011 to December 2020 were retrospectively reviewed. Procedural success and adverse events were recorded based on difficulty level according to the ASGE-grading system. RESULTS: A total of 20,652 ERCP procedures performed during the study period were analyzed, including 1908 procedures considered grade 1(9.2%), 10,170 procedures considered grade 2 (49.2%), 7764 procedures considered grade 3 (37.6%), 810 procedures considered grade 4 (3.9%). The overall success rate increased from 92.8% in 2011-2015 to 94.0% in 2016-2020, while the distribution of procedures and the incidence of complications showed little variation. The success rate revealed a significantly decreasing trend with increasing difficulty (ranging from 55.6 to 98.6%), mainly for biliary diseases. In addition, the difficulty scale was not associated with any differences in the rate of adverse event, except for the pancreatitis for grade 1 procedures, which had a low incidence. CONCLUSIONS: The ASGE-grading system can help predict the success rate of ERCP procedures but showed poor performance in predicting adverse events. Further exploration may be required to improve the grading system by adjusting or including certain clinical parameters, and to validate the system for extrapolation to other endoscopy units.

A Retrospective Study from a Single Center to Identify Hematological Factors that Distinguish Between Patients with Colorectal Carcinoma and Colorectal Adenoma.

BACKGROUND This retrospective study from a single center in China was conducted using data from medical records between 2012 and 2020, to identify hematological factors that distinguish between patients with colorectal carcinoma (CRC) and colorectal adenoma. MATERIAL AND METHODS In this case-control study, 856 eligible patients were randomly divided into a training set (n=600) and a testing set (n=256). Routine blood parameters, blood coagulation, and liver and kidney function parameters were collected. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to explore diagnostic indicators. The values of the area under the curve and calibration curves were used to evaluate the model. RESULTS The study included 325 colorectal adenoma and 531 CRC patients. The prediction model for diagnosing CRC using hemoglobin-to-platelet ratio, fibrinogen-albumin ratio (FAR), albumin-globulin ratio (A/G), platelet-lymphocyte ratio, carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), and thrombin time (TT) was developed on the basis of the patients grouped into the CRC and colorectal adenoma groups. The prediction model for diagnosing CRC stage was developed using prothrombin time (PT), TT, CEA, A/G, FAR, and HPR. The prediction model for diagnosing CRC grade was developed using PT, TT, A/G, plateletcrit, FAR, and HPR. The AUCs of the 3 prediction models were [0.848, 95% CI: (0.800-0.896)], [0.806, 95% CI: (0.775-0.836)], and [0.829, 95% CI: (0.797-0.860)] in the testing set. CONCLUSIONS Three diagnostic prediction models for early screening of CRC, stage of CRC, and grade of CRC were established through a panel of readily available hematological parameters, which could provide auxiliary tools for early screening of CRC.

Comparison of some biochemical markers between early-onset and late-onset colorectal precancerous lesions: A single-center retrospective study.

OBJECTIVE: Given that the onset of diseases including colorectal cancer precursors is affecting younger individuals and that obesity is an important risk factor for early-onset, we conducted a study to explore the biochemical profile of differences in serum between early-onset patients and late-onset colorectal precancerous lesions. METHODS: A total of 1447 patients, including 469 early-onset patients and 978 late-onset patients, were enrolled from the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University (FAHNU), of which there were 311 sessile serrated adenoma/polyps (SSA/P) and 1136 normal adenomas. The distribution of the included categorical variables was compared via Pearson's chi-squared test, whereas continuous variables were compared by using the nonparametric Kruskal-Wallis test and ANOVA. RESULTS: Compared with late-onset patients, the levels of total bilirubin and HDL-C were lower (p < 0.05), whereas triglyceride and uric acid levels were higher, in early-onset patients. Interestingly, in the subgroup analysis, triglyceride and uric acid levels remained at higher levels, whereas HDL-C remained at lower levels, in early-onset patients than in late-onset patients. Other characteristics, such as LDL-C, drinking, γ-GT, and the N/L ratio, were similar between the two groups. An additional analysis of the association of tumor size with markers showed that lower levels of HDL-C and higher levels of uric acid were associated with increased tumor size (p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Early-onset CRC precursor cases exhibit higher levels of triglycerides and lower levels of HDL-C than late-onset cases. Additionally, levels of HDL-C are negatively associated with tumor size, whereas uric acid was positively correlated with tumor size.

Antibiotics for fever in patients without perforation after gastric endoscopic submucosal dissection and endoscopic submucosal excavation may be unnecessary: a propensity score-matching analysis.

BACKGROUND: Endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) and endoscopic submucosal excavation (ESE) have been widely used and have gradually become the main endoscopic treatment for gastrointestinal mucosal and submucosal lesions. Whether antibiotics are necessary for fever after gastric ESD and ESE remain unclear. The aim of this study was to analyse the value of using antibiotics in patients without perforation after ESD or ESE with fever. METHODS: In this retrospective study, patients with fever without perforation after ESD or ESE from January 2014 to January 2019 were included and divided into 2 groups: the antibiotic group and the non-antibiotic group. Fever and hospitalization time were compared between the 2 groups after propensity score matching. RESULTS: Overall, 253 patients meeting the inclusion criteria were enrolled in the present study, with 186 patients in the non-antibiotic group and 67 patients in the antibiotic group before matching, 55 patients in the non-antibiotic group and 55 patients in the antibiotic group after matching with all baseline characteristics balanced (p > 0.05). The duration of fever was not significantly different between the 2 groups (p = 0.12). However, the median hospitalization stay in the antibiotic group was longer than that in the non-antibiotic group (8 vs 7, p = 0.007). CONCLUSIONS: Antibiotics may be unnecessary for fever in patients without perforation and without serious co-morbidities after gastric ESD or ESE.

Efficacy of different endoscopic treatments in patients with gastroesophageal reflux disease: a systematic review and network meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Both transoral incisionless fundoplication (TIF) and radiofrequency ablation (Stretta) are representative endoscopic treatments for gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD), but they have not been directly compared. This systematic review and network meta-analysis (NMA) evaluated the comparative effects of Stretta, TIF, and proton pump inhibitors (PPIs). METHODS: PubMed, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Web of Science, and Embase were searched for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that compared the efficacy of either the Stretta, TIF, or PPIs/sham procedure for GERD treatment. The NMA was conducted using frequentist methods. RESULTS: A total of 516 participants from 10 RCTs were included in this NMA. Both Stretta (mean difference, MD - 9.77, 95% confidence interval, CI - 12.85 to - 6.70) and TIF (MD - 12.22, 95% CI - 15.93 to - 8.52) were significantly superior to PPIs at improving health-related quality of life (HRQL) scores and heartburn scores (Stretta: MD - 1.53, 95% CI - 2.98 to - 0.08; TIF: MD - 9.60, 95% CI - 17.79 to - 1.41). Stretta (MD - 3.77, 95% CI - 6.88 to - 0.65) was less effective at increasing lower esophageal sphincter (LES) pressure than TIF. Stretta was significantly superior to TIF (MD - 3.25, 95% CI - 5.95 to - 0.56) at improving esophageal acid exposure. Regarding the decrease in PPIs utility and esophagitis incidence, no significant differences were found between TIF and Stretta. CONCLUSION: In terms of short-term reduction of the HRQL score and heartburn score in patients with GERD, TIF and Stretta may be comparable to each other, and both may be more effective than PPIs. TIF may increase the LES pressure in comparison with Stretta and PPIs. PPIs may reduce the percentage of time pH < 4.0 when compared with TIF. This evidence should be interpreted with caution given the small number of included studies and inherent heterogeneity. Registration No. CRD42020188345.