A New Type 2 Diabetes Microsimulation Model to Estimate Long-Term Health Outcomes, Costs, and Cost-Effectiveness.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to develop a microsimulation model to estimate the health effects, costs, and cost-effectiveness of public health and clinical interventions for preventing/managing type 2 diabetes. METHODS: We combined newly developed equations for complications, mortality, risk factor progression, patient utility, and cost-all based on US studies-in a microsimulation model. We performed internal and external validation of the model. To demonstrate the model's utility, we predicted remaining life-years, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and lifetime medical cost for a representative cohort of 10 000 US adults with type 2 diabetes. We then estimated the cost-effectiveness of reducing hemoglobin A1c from 9% to 7% among adults with type 2 diabetes, using low-cost, generic, oral medications. RESULTS: The model performed well in internal validation; the average absolute difference between simulated and observed incidence for 17 complications was < 8%. In external validation, the model was better at predicting outcomes in clinical trials than in observational studies. The cohort of US adults with type 2 diabetes was projected to have an average of 19.95 remaining life-years (from mean age 61), incur $187 729 in discounted medical costs, and accrue 8.79 discounted QALYs. The intervention to reduce hemoglobin A1c increased medical costs by $1256 and QALYs by 0.39, yielding an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $9103 per QALY. CONCLUSIONS: Using equations exclusively derived from US studies, this new microsimulation model achieves good prediction accuracy in US populations. The model can be used to estimate the long-term health impact, costs, and cost-effectiveness of interventions for type 2 diabetes in the United States.

Association of Participation in the Oncology Care Model With Medicare Payments, Utilization, Care Delivery, and Quality Outcomes.

IMPORTANCE: In 2016, the US Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services initiated the Oncology Care Model (OCM), an alternative payment model designed to improve the value of care delivered to Medicare beneficiaries with cancer. OBJECTIVE: To assess the association of the OCM with changes in Medicare spending, utilization, quality, and patient experience during the OCM's first 3 years. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Exploratory difference-in-differences study comparing care during 6-month chemotherapy episodes in OCM participating practices and propensity-matched comparison practices initiated before (January 2014 through June 2015) and after (July 2016 through December 2018) the start of the OCM. Participants included Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries with cancer treated at these practices through June 2019. EXPOSURES: OCM participation. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Total episode payments (Medicare spending for Parts A, B, and D, not including monthly payments for enhanced oncology services); utilization and payments for hospitalizations, emergency department (ED) visits, office visits, chemotherapy, supportive care, and imaging; quality (chemotherapy-associated hospitalizations and ED visits, timely chemotherapy, end-of-life care, and survival); and patient experiences. RESULTS: Among Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries with cancer undergoing chemotherapy, 483 319 beneficiaries (mean age, 73.0 [SD, 8.7] years; 60.1% women; 987 332 episodes) were treated at 201 OCM participating practices, and 557 354 beneficiaries (mean age, 72.9 [SD, 9.0] years; 57.4% women; 1 122 597 episodes) were treated at 534 comparison practices. From the baseline period, total episode payments increased from $28 681 for OCM episodes and $28 421 for comparison episodes to $33 211 for OCM episodes and $33 249 for comparison episodes during the intervention period (difference in differences, -$297; 90% CI, -$504 to -$91), less than the mean $704 Monthly Enhanced Oncology Services payments. Relative decreases in total episode payments were primarily for Part B nonchemotherapy drug payments (difference in differences, -$145; 90% CI, -$218 to -$72), especially supportive care drugs (difference in differences, -$150; 90% CI, -$216 to -$84). The OCM was associated with statistically significant relative reductions in total episode payments among higher-risk episodes (difference in differences, -$503; 90% CI, -$802 to -$204) and statistically significant relative increases in total episode payments among lower-risk episodes (difference in differences, $151; 90% CI, $39-$264). The OCM was not significantly associated with differences in hospitalizations, ED visits, or survival. Of 22 measures of utilization, 10 measures of quality, and 7 measures of care experiences, only 5 were significantly different. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this exploratory analysis, the OCM was significantly associated with modest payment reductions during 6-month episodes for Medicare beneficiaries receiving chemotherapy for cancer in the first 3 years of the OCM that did not offset the monthly payments for enhanced oncology services. There were no statistically significant differences for most utilization, quality, and patient experience outcomes.

Work patterns, socio-demographic characteristics and job satisfaction of the CRNA workforce - Findings from the 2019 AANA survey of CRNAs.

BACKGROUND: An ongoing shortage of anesthesia providers lends importance to the study of job satisfaction and retention among this critical workforce. Certified registered nurse anesthetists (CRNA) make up an increasing share of this workforce and the impact of factors affecting their satisfaction is not fully understood. PURPOSE: Understanding the job satisfaction of Certified Registered Nurse Anesthetists (CRNA) and its determinants. Methods We conduct a comprehensive survey in which we collect information on the job satisfaction of a nationally representative sample of CRNAs, along with information on factors related to their job satisfaction. We measure the impact of these characteristics on the CRNA's level of job satisfaction using a multivariate regression analysis. FINDINGS: Many CRNAs would prefer to pursue training opportunities on peripheral nerve blocks, epidural anesthesia and advanced airway management. Refreshing training on these procedures are factors that may enhance their job satisfaction, and potentially reduce unmet needs for anesthesia services. DISCUSSION: We find that most CRNAs are either very satisfied or somewhat satisfied with their job. Factors that significantly increase the probability of being very satisfied include greater autonomy in the delivery of anesthesia, and higher compensation.

Behind-the-Counter, but Over-the-Border? The Assessment of the Geographical Spillover Effects of Emergency Contraception on Abortions.

Washington was the first state to ease the prescription requirements making emergency contraception (EC) available behind-the-counter at pharmacies to women of any age in 1998. Using county-level vital statistics data in conjunction with the pharmacy specific location data from the Not-2-Late Hotline database, I study whether the increased access to EC affects fertility rates within the state and beyond the borders of the state that allows it. Unlike other studies that rely on geographic variations in access, I show that increased availability of EC in Washington, measured by the distance to the closest 'no-prescription EC pharmacy', is associated with a statistically significant albeit economically moderate decrease in abortion rates in Washington counties where women had access to 'no-prescription EC'. These effects are localized (i.e., decrease with travel distance) and robust in a number of specifications. Finally, I find some evidence in support of geographical spillover effects in Idaho, but not in Oregon. However, after accounting for the availability of abortion services, the decrease in 'treated' Idaho counties is rather small. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

High-need beneficiary enrollment patterns in Medicare Advantage and traditional Medicare.

OBJECTIVES: High-need Medicare beneficiaries require elevated levels of care and coordination to manage their conditions. We evaluated the extent to which high-need beneficiaries enrolled in Medicare Advantage (MA) or traditional Medicare (TM) accountable care organizations (ACOs) relative to TM non-ACOs. STUDY DESIGN: Using Medicare claims and MA encounter data, we identified 3 groups of high-need beneficiaries: (1) individuals younger than 65 years with a disability or end-stage kidney disease, (2) frail individuals, and (3) older individuals with major complex or multiple noncomplex chronic conditions. For comparison, we included non-high-need beneficiaries in the analysis, including those with minor complex chronic conditions. METHODS: Descriptive analysis of Medicare enrollment patterns and beneficiary characteristics of high-need and other beneficiaries between 2016 and 2019. RESULTS: In 2019, high-need beneficiaries accounted for 18 million or 32% of enrollees in TM and MA, an increase of approximately 1 million since 2016, driven by growth in MA. A larger share of beneficiaries in TM ACOs was high need (38%) compared with MA (24%). Although the total count of high-need beneficiaries in TM remained stable from 2016 to 2019, ACOs saw an increase of almost 1.5 million high-need beneficiaries (39% increase), and TM non-ACOs saw a decrease of 1.9 million (23% decrease). CONCLUSIONS: We found that high-need beneficiaries were more likely to be in TM non-ACOs than in MA through 2019. However, an increasing number of these beneficiaries are enrolling in MA or aligned with a TM ACO. A projected increase in the population of older adults will increase the economic burden of caring for high-need individuals.

The national economic burden of rare disease in the United States in 2019.

BACKGROUND: To provide a comprehensive assessment of the total economic burden of rare diseases (RD) in the United States (U.S.) in 2019. We followed a prevalence-based approach that combined the prevalence of 379 RDs with the per-person direct medical and indirect costs, to derive the national economic burden by patient age and type of RD. To estimate the prevalence and the direct medical cost of RD, we used claims data from three sources: Medicare 5% Standard Analytical File, Transformed Medicaid Statistical Information System, and Optum claims data for the privately insured. To estimate indirect and non-medical cost components, we worked with the rare disease community to design and implement a primary survey. RESULTS: There were an estimated 15.5 million U.S. children (N = 1,322,886) and adults (N = 14,222,299) with any of the 379 RDs in 2019 with a total economic burden of $997 billion, including a direct medical cost of $449 billion (45%), $437 billion (44%) in indirect costs, $73 billion in non-medical costs (7%), and $38 billion (4%) in healthcare costs not covered by insurance. The top drivers for excess medical costs associated with RD are hospital inpatient care and prescription medication; the top indirect cost categories are labor market productivity losses due to absenteeism, presenteeism, and early retirement. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings highlight the scale of the RD economic burden and call for immediate attention from the scientific communities, policy leaders, and other key stakeholders such as health care providers and employers, to think innovatively and collectively, to identify new ways to help improve the care, management, and treatment of these often-devastating diseases.

The Economic Burden of Multiple Sclerosis in the United States: Estimate of Direct and Indirect Costs.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: A recent report estimated that approximately 1 million adults were living with multiple sclerosis (MS) in the United States. Although MS is rarely the direct cause of death, its debilitating effects on normal body functions can result in considerable disruption to daily living and life roles including work, physical independence, mobility, social interaction, and participation in leisure activities. This study estimated the total economic burden of MS in the United States in 2019. METHODS: This study used a prevalence-based approach to estimate the national economic burden of MS. Claims from 3 sources (Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey, Medicare Standard Analytical File, and Optum de-identified Normative Health Information System) were used to obtain direct costs and a survey was developed to collect indirect costs (e.g., labor market productivity losses, costs of paid and unpaid caregivers, home modification) from 946 patients with MS (PwMS). Direct medical costs reflected the difference in the total average annual amount paid for PwMS vs matched controls without MS. Future earnings loss due to premature death attributable to MS was calculated using Centers for Disease Control and Prevention mortality data and Medicare claims data. RESULTS: The estimated total economic burden was $85.4 billion, with a direct medical cost of $63.3 billion and indirect and nonmedical costs of $22.1 billion. Retail prescription medication (54%); clinic-administered drugs, medication, and administration (12%); and outpatient care (9%) were the 3 largest components of the direct costs. The average excess per-person annual medical costs for PwMS was $65,612; at $35,154 per person, disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) accounted for the largest proportion of this cost. The cost per DMT user ranged from $57,202 to $92,719, depending on sex-age strata. The average indirect and nonmedical costs were $18,542 per PwMS and $22,875 per PwMS if caregivers' costs were included. Lost earnings due to premature death, presenteeism, and absenteeism losses were the largest indirect cost components. DISCUSSION: MS is a costly chronic disease, with direct costs of prescription drugs and indirect productivity loss being important cost drivers. Our findings suggested that the burden of MS in the United States has been underestimated.

Estimating costs of diabetes complications in people <65 years in the U.S. using panel data.

AIMS: To estimate the cost of diabetes complications in the United States (U.S.). METHODS: We constructed longitudinal panel data using one of the largest claims databases in the U.S. for privately insured Type 1 (T1DM) and type 2 (T2DM) diabetes patients with a follow-up time of one to ten years. Complication costs were estimated both in years of the first occurrence and in subsequent years, using individual fixed-effects models. All costs were in 2016 dollars. RESULTS: 47,166 people with T1DM and 608,237 with T2DM were included in our study. Aside from organ transplants, which were rare, the estimated average costs for the top three most costly conditions in the first vs. subsequent years were: end stage renal disease ($73,534 vs. $97,431 for T1DM; $94,231 vs. $98,981 for T2DM), congestive heart failure ($41,681 vs. $14,855 for T1DM; $31,202 vs. $7062 for T2DM), and myocardial infarction ($40,899 vs. $9496 for T1DM; $45,251 vs. $8572 for T2DM). For both diabetes types, retinopathy and neuropathy tend to have the lowest cost estimates. CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides the latest and most comprehensive cost estimates for a broad set of diabetes complications needed to evaluate the long-term cost-effectiveness of interventions for preventing and managing diabetes.

Current and projected future economic burden of Parkinson's disease in the U.S.

Parkinson's disease (PD) is one of the world's fastest growing neurological disorders. Much is unknown about PD-associated economic burdens in the United States (U.S.) and other high-income nations. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the economic burdens of PD in the U.S. (2017) and projections for the next two decades. Multiple data sources were used to estimate the costs of PD, including public and private administrative claims data, Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey, Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, and a primary survey (n = 4,548) designed for this study. We estimated a U.S. prevalence of approximately one million individuals with diagnosed Parkinson's disease in 2017 and a total economic burden of $51.9 billion. The total burden of PD includes direct medical costs of $25.4 billion and $26.5 billion in indirect and non-medical costs, including an indirect cost of $14.2 billion (PWP and caregiver burden combined), non-medical costs of $7.5 billion, and $4.8 billion due to disability income received by PWPs. The Medicare program bears the largest share of excess medical costs, as most PD patients are over age 65. Projected PD prevalence will be more than 1.6 million with projected total economic burden surpassing $79 billion by 2037. The economic burden of PD was previously underestimated. Our findings underscore the substantial burden of PD to society, payers, patients, and caregivers. Interventions to reduce PD incidence, delay disease progression, and alleviate symptom burden may reduce the future economic burden of PD.

The Economic Burden of Elevated Blood Glucose Levels in 2017: Diagnosed and Undiagnosed Diabetes, Gestational Diabetes Mellitus, and Prediabetes.

OBJECTIVE: This study was conducted to update national estimates of the economic burden of undiagnosed diabetes, prediabetes, and gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) in the United States for year 2017 and provide state-level estimates. Combined with published estimates for diagnosed diabetes, these updated statistics provide a detailed picture of the economic costs associated with elevated blood glucose levels. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: This study estimated medical expenditures exceeding levels occurring in the absence of diabetes or prediabetes and the indirect economic burden associated with reduced labor force participation and productivity. Data sources analyzed included Optum medical claims for ∼5.8 million commercially insured patients continuously enrolled from 2013 to 2015, Medicare Standard Analytical Files containing medical claims for ∼2.8 million Medicare patients in 2014, and the 2014 Nationwide Inpatient Sample containing ∼7.1 million discharge records. Other data sources were the U.S. Census Bureau, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. RESULTS: The economic burden associated with diagnosed diabetes (all ages), undiagnosed diabetes and prediabetes (adults), and GDM (mothers and newborns) reached nearly $404 billion in 2017, consisting of $327.2 billion for diagnosed diabetes, $31.7 billion for undiagnosed diabetes, $43.4 billion for prediabetes, and nearly $1.6 billion for GDM. Combined, this amounted to an economic burden of $1,240 for each American in 2017. Annual burden per case averaged $13,240 for diagnosed diabetes, $5,800 for GDM, $4,250 for undiagnosed diabetes, and $500 for prediabetes. CONCLUSIONS: Updated statistics underscore the importance of reducing the burden of prediabetes and diabetes through better detection, prevention, and treatment.

Fracking and risky behaviors: Evidence from Pennsylvania.

In the past decade, the technological developments in the oil and natural gas extraction industry made the extraction of shale gas economically feasible and prompted local economic booms across the US. Anecdotal evidence suggests that areas with unconventional gas development experience a disproportionate increase in the young male population who are more likely to be involved in risk-taking behavior. Moreover, the sudden income gains or demographic shifts might increase the demand for various goods and services, including entertainment and illegal activities provided by the adult entertainment industry. We investigate the relationship between unconventional gas development and a variety of risk-taking outcomes such as sexually transmitted infections, and prostitution-related arrests. Our identification strategy exploits the variation in shale gas or unconventional well drilling across time and counties in conjecture with a number of datasets that allow us to investigate the potential mechanisms. Our findings indicate that Pennsylvania counties with fracking activities have higher rates of gonorrhea and chlamydia infections (7.8% and 2.6%, respectively), as well as higher prostitution related arrests (19.7%). We posit that changes in the labor market and associated impacts to income or composition of workers may play a role in the estimated effects, but we do not find evidence in support of these hypotheses.

Beneficiary Switching Between Traditional Medicare and Medicare Advantage Between 2016 and 2020.

This cohort study examines switching behavior in enrollment in Medicare Advantage and traditional Medicare.