A natural experiment identifies an impending ecological trap for a neotropical amphibian in response to extreme weather events.

Extreme weather events are predicted to increase as a result of climate change, yet amphibian responses to extreme disturbance events remain understudied, especially in the Neotropics. Recently, an unprecedented windstorm within a protected Costa Rican rainforest opened large light gaps in sites where we have studied behavioral responses of diurnal strawberry poison frogs (Oophaga pumilio) to ultraviolet radiation for nearly two decades. Previous studies demonstrate that O. pumilio selects and defends perches where ultraviolet radiation (UV-B) is relatively low, likely because of the lethal and sublethal effects of UV-B. In this natural experiment, we quantified disturbance to O. pumilio habitat, surveyed for the presence of O. pumilio in both high-disturbance and low-disturbance areas of the forest, and assessed UV-B levels and perch selection behavior in both disturbance levels. Fewer frogs were detected in high-disturbance habitat than in low-disturbance habitat. In general, frogs were found vocalizing at perches in both disturbance levels, and in both cases, in significantly lower UV-B levels relative to ambient adjacent surroundings. However, frogs at perches in high-disturbance areas were exposed to UV-B levels nearly 10 times greater than males at perches in low-disturbance areas. Thus, behavioral avoidance of UV-B may not reduce the risks associated with elevated exposure under these novel conditions, and similarly, if future climate and human-driven land-use change lead to sustained analogous environments.

Amphibian responses in the aftermath of extreme climate events.

Climate change-induced extinctions are estimated to eliminate one in six known species by the end of the century. One major factor that will contribute to these extinctions is extreme climatic events. Here, we show the ecological impacts of recent record warm air temperatures and simultaneous peak drought conditions in California. From 2008-2016, the southern populations of a wide-ranging endemic amphibian (the California newt, Taricha torosa) showed a 20% reduction to mean body condition and significant losses to variation in body condition linked with extreme climate deviations. However, body condition in northern populations remained relatively unaffected during this period. Range-wide population estimates of change to body condition under future climate change scenarios within the next 50 years suggest that northern populations will mirror the loss of body condition recently observed in southern populations. This change is predicated on latter 21st century climate deviations that resemble recent conditions in Southern California. Thus, the ecological consequences of climate change have already occurred across the warmer, drier regions of Southern California, and our results suggest that predicted climate vulnerable regions in the more mesic northern range likely will not provide climate refuge for numerous amphibian communities.