An ensemble model based on early predictors to forecast COVID-19 health care demand in France.

Short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 pandemic is required to facilitate the planning of COVID-19 health care demand in hospitals. Here, we evaluate the performance of 12 individual models and 19 predictors to anticipate French COVID-19-related health care needs from September 7, 2020, to March 6, 2021. We then build an ensemble model by combining the individual forecasts and retrospectively test this model from March 7, 2021, to July 6, 2021. We find that the inclusion of early predictors (epidemiological, mobility, and meteorological predictors) can halve the rms error for 14-d­ahead forecasts, with epidemiological and mobility predictors contributing the most to the improvement. On average, the ensemble model is the best or second-best model, depending on the evaluation metric. Our approach facilitates the comparison and benchmarking of competing models through their integration in a coherent analytical framework, ensuring that avenues for future improvements can be identified.

Public health and economic benefits of seasonal influenza vaccination in risk groups in France, Italy, Spain and the UK: state of play and perspectives.

BACKGROUND: Seasonal influenza epidemics have a substantial public health and economic burden, which can be alleviated through vaccination. The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends a 75% vaccination coverage rate (VCR) in: older adults (aged ≥ 65 years), individuals with chronic conditions, pregnant women, children aged 6-24 months and healthcare workers. However, no European country achieves this target in all risk groups. In this study, potential public health and economic benefits achieved by reaching 75% influenza VCR was estimated in risk groups across four European countries: France, Italy, Spain, and the UK. METHODS: A static epidemiological model was used to estimate the averted public health and economic burden of increasing the 2021/2022 season VCR to 75%, using the efficacy data of standard-dose quadrivalent influenza vaccine. For each country and risk group, the most recent data on population size, VCR, pre-pandemic influenza epidemiology, direct medical costs and absenteeism were identified through a systematic literature review, supplemented by manual searching. Outcomes were: averted influenza cases, general practitioner (GP) visits, hospitalisations, case fatalities, number of days of work lost, direct medical costs and absenteeism-related costs. RESULTS: As of the 2021/2022 season, the UK achieved the highest weighted VCR across risk groups (65%), followed by Spain (47%), France (44%) and Italy (44%). Based on modelling, the 2021/2022 VCR prevented an estimated 1.9 million influenza cases, avoiding 375,200 GP visits, 73,200 hospitalisations and 38,400 deaths. To achieve the WHO 75% VCR target, an additional 24 million at-risk individuals would need to be vaccinated, most of which being older adults and patients with chronic conditions. It was estimated that this could avoid a further 918,200 influenza cases, 332,000 GP visits, 16,300 hospitalisations and 6,300 deaths across the four countries, with older adults accounting for 52% of hospitalisations and 80% of deaths. An additional €84 million in direct medical costs and €79 million in absenteeism costs would be saved in total, with most economic benefits delivered in France. CONCLUSIONS: Older adults represent most vaccine-preventable influenza cases and deaths, followed by individuals with chronic conditions. Health authorities should prioritise vaccinating these populations for maximum public health and economic benefits.

A randomised controlled trial to study the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and other respiratory viruses during indoor clubbing events (ANRS0066s ITOC study).

BACKGROUND: In the context of the circulation of the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant, vaccination re-authorised mass indoor gatherings. The "Indoor Transmission of COVID-19" (ITOC) trial (ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT05311865) aimed to assess the risk of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and other respiratory viruses during an indoor clubbing event among participants fully-vaccinated against COVID-19. METHODS: ITOC, a randomised, controlled trial in the Paris region (France), enrolled healthy volunteers aged 18-49 years, fully-vaccinated against COVID-19, with no co-morbidities or symptoms, randomised 1:1 to be interventional group "attendees" or control "non-attendees". The intervention, a 7-hour indoor event in a nightclub at full capacity, with no masking, prior SARS-CoV-2 test result or social distancing required. The primary-outcome measure was the numbers of RT-PCR-determined SARS-CoV-2-positive subjects on self-collected saliva 7 days post-gathering in the per-protocol population. Secondary endpoints focused on 20 other respiratory viruses. RESULTS: Healthy participants (n = 1,216) randomised 2:1 by blocks up to 10, 815 attendees and 401 non-attendees, yielding 529 and 287 subjects, respectively, with day-7 saliva samples. One day-7 sample from each group was positive. Looking at all respiratory viruses together, the clubbing event was associated with an increased risk of infection of 1.59 [95% CI 1.04-2.61]. CONCLUSIONS: In the context of low Delta-VOC circulation, no evidence of SARS-CoV-2 transmission among asymptomatic and vaccinated participants was found, but the risk of other respiratory virus transmission was higher.

Sick leave due to COVID-19 during the first pandemic wave in France, 2020.

OBJECTIVES: To quantify the burden of COVID-19-related sick leave during the first pandemic wave in France, accounting for sick leaves due to symptomatic COVID-19 ('symptomatic sick leaves') and those due to close contact with COVID-19 cases ('contact sick leaves'). METHODS: We combined data from a national demographic database, an occupational health survey, a social behaviour survey and a dynamic SARS-CoV-2 transmission model. Sick leave incidence from 1 March 2020 to 31 May 2020 was estimated by summing daily probabilities of symptomatic and contact sick leaves, stratified by age and administrative region. RESULTS: There were an estimated 1.70M COVID-19-related sick leaves among France's 40M working-age adults during the first pandemic wave, including 0.42M due to COVID-19 symptoms and 1.28M due to COVID-19 contacts. There was great geographical variation, with peak daily sick leave incidence ranging from 230 in Corse (Corsica) to 33 000 in Île-de-France (the greater Paris region), and greatest overall burden in regions of north-eastern France. Regional sick leave burden was generally proportional to local COVID-19 prevalence, but age-adjusted employment rates and contact behaviours also contributed. For instance, 37% of symptomatic infections occurred in Île-de-France, but 45% of sick leaves. Middle-aged workers bore disproportionately high sick leave burden, owing predominantly to greater incidence of contact sick leaves. CONCLUSIONS: France was heavily impacted by sick leave during the first pandemic wave, with COVID-19 contacts accounting for approximately three-quarters of COVID-19-related sick leaves. In the absence of representative sick leave registry data, local demography, employment patterns, epidemiological trends and contact behaviours can be synthesised to quantify sick leave burden and, in turn, predict economic consequences of infectious disease epidemics.

Maternal Age at First Childbirth and Geographical Variation in Hepatitis B Virus Prevalence in Cameroon: Important Role of Mother-to-Child Transmission.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection varies geographically around the world. Yet, its underlying mechanisms are unknown. Using a nationally representative population-based sample from all 58 administrative divisions in Cameroon, we examined the association between median maternal age at first childbirth in a preceding generation, a proxy for the frequency of mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of HBV in a region, and the risk of chronic HBV infection, defined as positive surface antigen (HBsAg), in the index generation. METHODS: We estimated a division-specific median maternal age at first childbirth using Demographic Health Surveys (DHSs) conducted in 1991, 1998, 2004, and 2011. We tested HBsAg in 2011 DHS participants. We used maps to display spatial variation. RESULTS: In 14 150 participants (median age, 27 years; 51% females), the overall weighted prevalence of HBsAg was 11.9% (95% confidence interval [CI], 11.0 to 12.8), with a wide geographical variation across the divisions (range, 6.3%-23.7%). After adjusting for confounders and spatial dependency, lower maternal age at first childbirth was significantly associated with positive HBsAg at the division level (ß, 1.89; 95% CI, 1.26 to 2.52) and at the individual level (odds ratio, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.04 to 1.39). A similar ecological correlation was observed across other African countries. CONCLUSIONS: The significant association between the maternal age at first childbirth and HBsAg positivity suggests a crucial role of MTCT in maintaining high HBV endemicity in some areas in Cameroon. This underlines an urgent need to effectively prevent MTCT in sub-Saharan Africa.

A cross-sectional study on infectious health risks regarding freshwater sports practice in Brittany, France.

Freshwater sports expose practitioners to pathogens in the water environment and may result in infection. In French Brittany, these infections are particularly worrying, especially since 2016 with an increase in the incidence of leptospirosis reaching 1 case per 100,000 inhabitants, which represents the highest incidence observed since 1920. We aimed to estimate the prevalence of infectious diseases related to freshwater sports practice and to identify the factors associated with these infections among freshwater sports licensees in Brittany, France. From March 18, 2019, to May 8, 2019, we interviewed freshwater sports licensees (online study) and club presidents and instructors (phone study) in Brittany. Licensee participants were 18 years old or more and practiced at least one freshwater sport in one of the 79 Brittany clubs. We used logistic regression models to study the association between our variables of interest and potential risk factors. In total, 551 licensees (20.3% of the total number of licensees) and 38 clubs (48.1%) were surveyed. Among the licensees, 29 (5.3%) reported being diagnosed with leptospirosis, of which 12 (41.3%) occurred in the last 5 years. The most reported symptoms were skin irritation/itchy skin (24.3%) and 39 individuals (7.1%) reported at least one hospitalization in their lifetime for a disease related to freshwater sports. The occurrence of leptospirosis was negatively associated with boarding from a pontoon (odds ratio (OR)=0.20, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.06-0.56), practicing for less than 4 years (OR=0.17, 95% CI 0.04-0.56) compared to more than 10 years, and the occurrence of leptospirosis was positively associated with taking a soapy shower after practice (OR=4.38, 95% CI 1.90-10.51). Eskimo roll was positively associated with the occurrence of otitis and conjunctivitis (OR=3.22, 95% CI 1.82-6.03), and skin irritation/itchy skin (OR=1.66, 95% CI 0.99-2.84). Otitis, conjunctivitis, and skin irritation/itchy skin are the most commonly reported freshwater sport-related diseases in French Brittany. Despite a good level of knowledge of prevention measures, their implementation by licensees and clubs remains low. Further studies are needed to identify practices associated with infectious risk in freshwater sports.

National influenza surveillance systems in five European countries: a qualitative comparative framework based on WHO guidance.

BACKGROUND: Influenza surveillance systems vary widely between countries and there is no framework to evaluate national surveillance systems in terms of data generation and dissemination. This study aimed to develop and test a comparative framework for European influenza surveillance. METHODS: Surveillance systems were evaluated qualitatively in five European countries (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom) by a panel of influenza experts and researchers from each country. Seven surveillance sub-systems were defined: non-medically attended community surveillance, virological surveillance, community surveillance, outbreak surveillance, primary care surveillance, hospital surveillance, mortality surveillance). These covered a total of 19 comparable outcomes of increasing severity, ranging from non-medically attended cases to deaths, which were evaluated using 5 comparison criteria based on WHO guidance (granularity, timing, representativeness, sampling strategy, communication) to produce a framework to compare the five countries. RESULTS: France and the United Kingdom showed the widest range of surveillance sub-systems, particularly for hospital surveillance, followed by Germany, Spain, and Italy. In all countries, virological, primary care and hospital surveillance were well developed, but non-medically attended events, influenza cases in the community, outbreaks in closed settings and mortality estimates were not consistently reported or published. The framework also allowed the comparison of variations in data granularity, timing, representativeness, sampling strategy, and communication between countries. For data granularity, breakdown per risk condition were available in France and Spain, but not in the United Kingdom, Germany and Italy. For data communication, there were disparities in the timeliness and accessibility of surveillance data. CONCLUSIONS: This new framework can be used to compare influenza surveillance systems qualitatively between countries to allow the identification of structural differences as well as to evaluate adherence to WHO guidance. The framework may be adapted for other infectious respiratory diseases.

A Conceptual Discussion About the Basic Reproduction Number of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 in Healthcare Settings.

To date, no specific estimate of R0 for SARS-CoV-2 is available for healthcare settings. Using interindividual contact data, we highlight that R0 estimates from the community cannot translate directly to healthcare settings, with pre-pandemic R0 values ranging 1.3-7.7 in 3 illustrative healthcare institutions. This has implications for nosocomial COVID-19 control.

Time-series modelling for the quantification of seasonality and forecasting antibiotic-resistant episodes: application to carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae episodes in France over 2010-20.

BACKGROUND: Carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae (CPE) cause resistant healthcare-associated infections that jeopardize healthcare systems and patient safety worldwide. The number of CPE episodes has been increasing in France since 2009, but the dynamics are still poorly understood. OBJECTIVES: To use time-series modelling to describe the dynamics of CPE episodes from August 2010 to December 2016 and to forecast the evolution of CPE episodes for the 2017-20 period. METHODS: We used time series to analyse CPE episodes from August 2010 to November 2016 reported to the French national surveillance system. The impact of seasonality was quantified using seasonal-to-irregular ratios. Seven time-series models and three ensemble stacking models (average, convex and linear stacking) were assessed and compared with forecast CPE episodes during 2017-20. RESULTS: During 2010-16, 3559 CPE episodes were observed in France. Compared with the average yearly trend, we observed a 30% increase in the number of CPE episodes in the autumn. We noticed a 1 month lagged seasonality of non-imported episodes compared with imported episodes. Average stacking gave the best forecasts and predicted an increase during 2017-20 with a peak up to 345 CPE episodes (95% prediction interval = 124-1158, 80% prediction interval = 171-742) in September 2020. CONCLUSIONS: The observed seasonality of CPE episodes sheds light on potential factors associated with the increased frequency of episodes, which need further investigation. Our model predicts that the number of CPE episodes will continue to rise in the coming years in France, mainly due to local dissemination, associated with bacterial carriage by patients in the community, which is becoming an immediate challenge with regard to outbreak control.

Cost-Effectiveness of Quadrivalent Versus Trivalent Influenza Vaccination in the Dutch National Influenza Prevention Program.

OBJECTIVES: As of 2019, quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIV) has replaced trivalent influenza vaccine (TIV) in the national immunization program in The Netherlands. Target groups are individuals of 60+ years of age and those with chronic diseases. The objective was to estimate the incremental break-even price of QIV over TIV at a threshold of €20 000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). METHODS: An age-structured compartmental dynamic model was adapted for The Netherlands to assess health outcomes and associated costs of vaccinating all individuals at higher risk for influenza with QIV instead of TIV over the seasons 2010 to 2018. Influenza incidence rates were derived from a global database. Other parameters (probabilities, QALYs and costs) were extracted from the literature and applied according to Dutch guidelines. A threshold of €20 000 per QALY was applied to estimate the incremental break-even prices of QIV versus TIV. Sensitivity analyses were performed to test the robustness of the model outcomes. RESULTS: Retrospectively, vaccination with QIV instead of TIV could have prevented on average 9500 symptomatic influenza cases, 2130 outpatient visits, 84 hospitalizations, and 38 deaths per year over the seasons 2010 to 2018. This translates into 385 QALYs and 398 life-years potentially gained. On average, totals of €431 527 direct and €2 388 810 indirect costs could have been saved each year. CONCLUSION: Using QIV over TIV during the influenza seasons 2010 to 2018 would have been cost-effective at an incremental price of maximally €3.81 (95% confidence interval, €3.26-4.31). Sensitivity analysis showed consistent findings on the incremental break-even price in the same range.

Lockdown as a last resort option in case of COVID-19 epidemic rebound: a modelling study.

BackgroundGiven its high economic and societal cost, policymakers might be reluctant to implement a large-scale lockdown in case of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) epidemic rebound. They may consider it as a last resort option if alternative control measures fail to reduce transmission.AimWe developed a modelling framework to ascertain the use of lockdown to ensure intensive care unit (ICU) capacity does not exceed a peak target defined by policymakers.MethodsWe used a deterministic compartmental model describing transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and the trajectories of COVID-19 patients in healthcare settings, accounting for age-specific mixing patterns and an increasing probability of severe outcomes with age. The framework is illustrated in the context of metropolitan France.ResultsThe daily incidence of ICU admissions and the number of occupied ICU beds are the most robust indicators to decide when a lockdown should be triggered. When the doubling time of hospitalisations estimated before lockdown is between 8 and 20 days, lockdown should be enforced when ICU admissions reach 3.0-3.7 and 7.8-9.5 per million for peak targets of 62 and 154 ICU beds per million (4,000 and 10,000 beds for metropolitan France), respectively. When implemented earlier, the lockdown duration required to get back below a desired level is also shorter.ConclusionsWe provide simple indicators and triggers to decide if and when a last-resort lockdown should be implemented to avoid saturation of ICU. These metrics can support the planning and real-time management of successive COVID-19 pandemic waves.

Impact of quadrivalent influenza vaccines in Brazil: a cost-effectiveness analysis using an influenza transmission model.

BACKGROUND: Influenza epidemics significantly weight on the Brazilian healthcare system and its society. Public health authorities have progressively expanded recommendations for vaccination against influenza, particularly to the pediatric population. However, the potential mismatch between the trivalent influenza vaccine (TIV) strains and those circulating during the season remains an issue. Quadrivalent vaccines improves vaccines effectiveness by preventing any potential mismatch on influenza B lineages. METHODS: We evaluate the public health and economic benefits of the switch from TIV to QIV for the pediatric influenza recommendation (6mo-5yo) by using a dynamic epidemiological model able to consider the indirect impact of vaccination. Results of the epidemiological model are then imputed in a health-economic model adapted to the Brazilian context. We perform deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analysis to account for both epidemiological and economical sources of uncertainty. RESULTS: Our results show that switching from TIV to QIV in the Brazilian pediatric population would prevent 406,600 symptomatic cases, 11,300 hospitalizations and almost 400 deaths by influenza season. This strategy would save 3400 life-years yearly for an incremental direct cost of R$169 million per year, down to R$86 million from a societal perspective. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for the switch would be R$49,700 per life-year saved and R$26,800 per quality-adjusted life-year gained from a public payer perspective, and even more cost-effective from a societal perspective. Our results are qualitatively similar in our sensitivity analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis shows that switching from TIV to QIV to protect children aged 6mo to 5yo in the Brazilian influenza epidemiological context could have a strong public health impact and represent a cost-effective strategy from a public payer perspective, and a highly cost-effective one from a societal perspective.

Spread of hospital-acquired infections: A comparison of healthcare networks.

Hospital-acquired infections (HAIs), including emerging multi-drug resistant organisms, threaten healthcare systems worldwide. Efficient containment measures of HAIs must mobilize the entire healthcare network. Thus, to best understand how to reduce the potential scale of HAI epidemic spread, we explore patient transfer patterns in the French healthcare system. Using an exhaustive database of all hospital discharge summaries in France in 2014, we construct and analyze three patient networks based on the following: transfers of patients with HAI (HAI-specific network); patients with suspected HAI (suspected-HAI network); and all patients (general network). All three networks have heterogeneous patient flow and demonstrate small-world and scale-free characteristics. Patient populations that comprise these networks are also heterogeneous in their movement patterns. Ranking of hospitals by centrality measures and comparing community clustering using community detection algorithms shows that despite the differences in patient population, the HAI-specific and suspected-HAI networks rely on the same underlying structure as that of the general network. As a result, the general network may be more reliable in studying potential spread of HAIs. Finally, we identify transfer patterns at both the French regional and departmental (county) levels that are important in the identification of key hospital centers, patient flow trajectories, and regional clusters that may serve as a basis for novel wide-scale infection control strategies.

Mathematical models of infection transmission in healthcare settings: recent advances from the use of network structured data.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Mathematical modeling approaches have brought important contributions to the study of pathogen spread in healthcare settings over the last 20 years. Here, we conduct a comprehensive systematic review of mathematical models of disease transmission in healthcare settings and assess the application of contact and patient transfer network data over time and their impact on our understanding of transmission dynamics of infections. RECENT FINDINGS: Recently, with the increasing availability of data on the structure of interindividual and interinstitution networks, models incorporating this type of information have been proposed, with the aim of providing more realistic predictions of disease transmission in healthcare settings. Models incorporating realistic data on individual or facility networks often remain limited to a few settings and a few pathogens (mostly methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus). SUMMARY: To respond to the objectives of creating improved infection prevention and control measures and better understanding of healthcare-associated infections transmission dynamics, further innovations in data collection and parameter estimation in modeling is required.

Seasonal influenza vaccination coverage and its determinants among nursing homes personnel in western France.

BACKGROUND: Influenza-associated deaths is an important risk for the elderly in nursing homes (NHs) worldwide. Vaccination coverage among residents is high but poorly effective due to immunosenescence. Hence, vaccination of personnel is an efficient way to protect residents. Our objective was to quantify the seasonal influenza vaccination (IV) coverage among NH for elderly workers and identify its determinants in France. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study in March 2016 in a randomized sample of NHs of the Ille-et-Vilaine department of Brittany, in western France. A standardized questionnaire was administered to a randomized sample of NH workers for face-to-face interviews. General data about the establishment was also collected. RESULTS: Among the 33 NHs surveyed, IV coverage for the 2015-2016 season among permanent workers was estimated at 20% (95% Confidence Interval (CI) 15.3%-26.4%) ranging from 0% to 69% depending on the establishments surveyed. Moreover, IV was associated with having previously experienced a "severe" influenza episode in the past (Prevalence Ratio 1.48, 95% CI 1.01-2.17), and varied by professional categories (p < 0.004) with better coverage among administrative staff. Better knowledge about influenza prevention tools was also correlated (p < 0.001) with a higher IV coverage. Individual perceptions of vaccination benefits had a significant influence on the IV coverage (p < 0.001). Although IV coverage did not reach a high rate, our study showed that personnel considered themselves sufficiently informed about IV. CONCLUSIONS: IV coverage remains low in the NH worker population in Ille-et-Vilaine and also possibly in France. Strong variations of IV coverage among NHs suggest that management and working environment play an important role. To overcome vaccine "hesitancy", specific communication tools may be required to be adapted to the various NH professionals to improve influenza prevention.

Cost-Effectiveness of Quadrivalent versus Trivalent Influenza Vaccine in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Designed to overcome influenza B mismatch, new quadrivalent influenza vaccines (QIVs) contain one additional B strain compared with trivalent influenza vaccines (TIVs). OBJECTIVE: To examine the expected public health impact, budget impact, and incremental cost-effectiveness of QIV versus TIV in the United States. METHODS: A dynamic transmission model was used to predict the annual incidence of influenza over the 20-year-period of 2014 to 2034 under either a TIV program or a QIV program. A decision tree model was interfaced with the transmission model to estimate the public health impact and the cost-effectiveness of replacing TIV with QIV from a societal perspective. Our models were informed by published data from the United States on influenza complication probabilities and relevant costs. The incremental vaccine price of QIV as compared with that of TIV was set at US $5.40 per dose. RESULTS: Over the next 20 years, replacing TIV with QIV may reduce the number of influenza B cases by 27.2% (16.0 million cases), resulting in the prevention of 137,600 hospitalizations and 16,100 deaths and a gain of 212,000 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). The net societal budget impact would be US $5.8 billion and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio US $27,411/QALY gained. In the probabilistic sensitivity analysis, 100% and 96.5% of the simulations fell below US $100,000/QALY and US $50,000/QALY, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Introducing QIV into the US immunization program may prevent a substantial number of hospitalizations and deaths. QIV is also expected to be a cost-effective alternative option to TIV.

Determinants of individuals' risks to 2009 pandemic influenza virus infection at household level amongst Djibouti city residents--a CoPanFlu cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Following the 2009 swine flu pandemic, a cohort for pandemic influenza (CoPanFlu) study was established in Djibouti, the Horn of Africa, to investigate its case prevalence and risk predictors' at household level. METHODS: From the four city administrative districts, 1,045 subjects from 324 households were included during a face-to-face encounter between 11th November 2010 and 15th February 2011. Socio-demographic details were collected and blood samples were analysed in haemagglutination inhibition (HI) assays. Risk assessments were performed in a generalised estimating equation model. RESULTS: In this study, the indicator of positive infection status was set at an HI titre of ≥ 80, which was a relevant surrogate to the seroconversion criterion. All positive cases were considered to be either recent infections or past contact with an antigenically closely related virus in humans older than 65 years. An overall sero-prevalence of 29.1% and a geometrical mean titre (GMT) of 39.5% among the residents was observed. Youths, ≤ 25 years and the elderly, ≥65 years had the highest titres, with values of 35.9% and 29.5%, respectively. Significantly, risk was high amongst youths ≤ 25 years, (OR 1.5-2.2), residents of District 4(OR 2.9), students (OR 1.4) and individuals living near to river banks (OR 2.5). Belonging to a large household (OR 0.6), being employed (OR 0.5) and working in open space-outdoor (OR 0.4) were significantly protective. Only 1.4% of the cohort had vaccination against the pandemic virus and none were immunised against seasonal influenza. CONCLUSION: Despite the limited number of incident cases detected by the surveillance system, A(H1N1)pdm09 virus circulated broadly in Djibouti in 2010 and 2011. Age-group distribution of cases was similar to what has been reported elsewhere, with youths at the greatest risk of infection. Future respiratory infection control should therefore be tailored to reach specific and vulnerable individuals such as students and those working in groups indoors. It is concluded that the lack of robust data provided by surveillance systems in southern countries could be responsible for the underestimation of the epidemiological burden, although the main characteristics are essentially similar to what has been observed in developed countries.

Drug sales data analysis for outbreak detection of infectious diseases: a systematic literature review.

BACKGROUND: This systematic literature review aimed to summarize evidence for the added value of drug sales data analysis for the surveillance of infectious diseases. METHODS: A search for relevant publications was conducted in Pubmed, Embase, Scopus, Cochrane Library, African Index Medicus and Lilacs databases. Retrieved studies were evaluated in terms of objectives, diseases studied, data sources, methodologies and performance for real-time surveillance. Most studies compared drug sales data to reference surveillance data using correlation measurements or indicators of outbreak detection performance (sensitivity, specificity, timeliness of the detection). RESULTS: We screened 3266 articles and included 27 in the review. Most studies focused on acute respiratory and gastroenteritis infections. Nineteen studies retrospectively compared drug sales data to reference clinical data, and significant correlations were observed in 17 of them. Four studies found that over-the-counter drug sales preceded clinical data in terms of incidence increase. Five studies developed and evaluated statistical algorithms for selecting drug groups to monitor specific diseases. Another three studies developed models to predict incidence increase from drug sales. CONCLUSIONS: Drug sales data analyses appear to be a useful tool for surveillance of gastrointestinal and respiratory disease, and OTC drugs have the potential for early outbreak detection. Their utility remains to be investigated for other diseases, in particular those poorly surveyed.

Redefining pandemic preparedness: Multidisciplinary insights from the CERP modelling workshop in infectious diseases, workshop report.

In July 2023, the Center of Excellence in Respiratory Pathogens organized a two-day workshop on infectious diseases modelling and the lessons learnt from the Covid-19 pandemic. This report summarizes the rich discussions that occurred during the workshop. The workshop participants discussed multisource data integration and highlighted the benefits of combining traditional surveillance with more novel data sources like mobility data, social media, and wastewater monitoring. Significant advancements were noted in the development of predictive models, with examples from various countries showcasing the use of machine learning and artificial intelligence in detecting and monitoring disease trends. The role of open collaboration between various stakeholders in modelling was stressed, advocating for the continuation of such partnerships beyond the pandemic. A major gap identified was the absence of a common international framework for data sharing, which is crucial for global pandemic preparedness. Overall, the workshop underscored the need for robust, adaptable modelling frameworks and the integration of different data sources and collaboration across sectors, as key elements in enhancing future pandemic response and preparedness.

Modeling the impact of national and regional lockdowns on the 2020 spring wave of COVID-19 in France.

Several countries have implemented lockdowns to control their COVID-19 epidemic. However, questions like "where" and "when" still require answers. We assessed the impact of national and regional lockdowns considering the French first epidemic wave of COVID-19 as a case study. In a regional lockdown scenario aimed at preventing intensive care units (ICU) saturation, almost all French regions would have had to implement a lockdown within 10 days and 96% of ICU capacities would have been used. For slowly growing epidemics, with a lower reproduction number, the expected delays between regional lockdowns increase. However, the public health costs associated with these delays tend to grow with time. In a quickly growing pandemic wave, defining the timing of lockdowns at a regional rather than national level delays by a few days the implementation of a nationwide lockdown but leads to substantially higher morbidity, mortality, and stress on the healthcare system.