Lung function decline is mitigated following liver transplantation in people with cystic fibrosis: A retrospective cohort study.

There is paucity of literature on the health outcomes following liver transplantation (LT) in people with cystic fibrosis (pwCF). We aim to evaluate changes in lung function following LT in pwCF. We performed a retrospective cohort study of pwCF who underwent LT between 1987 and 2019 in the United States and Canada. Simultaneous lung-liver transplants and individuals who had lung transplant prior to LT were excluded. We analyzed pre-LT and post-LT percent predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 second, body mass index, rates of pulmonary exacerbation, and post-LT overall survival. A total of 402 LT recipients were included. The median age of transplant was 14.9 years and 69.7% of the transplants were performed in children less than 18 years old. The rate of decline in percent predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 second was attenuated after LT from -2.2% to -0.7% predicted per year with a difference of 1.5% predicted per year (95% CI, 0.8, 2.2; p < 0.001). Following LT, the rate of decline in body mass index was reduced, and there were fewer pulmonary exacerbations (0.6 pre vs. 0.4 post; rate ratio 0.7, p < 0.01). The median survival time post-transplant was 13.9 years and the overall probability of survival at 5 years was 77.6%. Those with higher lung function pre-LT had a lower risk of death post-LT, and those with genotypes other than F508 deletion had worse survival. LT in pwCF occurs most often in children and adolescents and is associated with a slower rate of decline in lung function and nutritional status, and a reduction in pulmonary exacerbations.

Cystic fibrosis survival outcomes following second lung transplant: The north American experience.

INTRODUCTION: Re-transplant is an option for those who develop end-stage lung disease due to rejection; however, little data exist following re-transplantation in cystic fibrosis (CF). METHODS: Data from the Canadian CF Registry and US CF Foundation Patient Registry supplemented with data from United Network for Organ Sharing were used. Individuals who underwent a 2nd lung transplant between 2005 and 2019 were included. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate the probability of survival post-second transplant at 1, 3, and 5-years. RESULTS: Of those people who were waitlisted for a second transplant (N = 818), a total of 254 (31%) died waiting, 395 (48%) were transplanted and 169 (21%) people were alive on the waitlist. Median survival time after 2nd lung transplant was 3.3 years (95% CI: 2.8-4.1). The 1-, 3- and 5-year survival rates were 77.4% (95% CI: 73.1-82%), 52% (95% CI: 46.7-58%) and 39.4% (95% CI: 34.1-45.6%). CONCLUSIONS: Survival following second lung transplant in CF patients is lower than estimates following the first transplant. Over half of subjects who are potentially eligible for a second transplant die without receiving a second organ. This warrants further investigation.

The prevalence of onchocerciasis in Africa and Yemen, 2000-2018: a geospatial analysis.

BACKGROUND: Onchocerciasis is a disease caused by infection with Onchocerca volvulus, which is transmitted to humans via the bite of several species of black fly, and is responsible for permanent blindness or vision loss, as well as severe skin disease. Predominantly endemic in parts of Africa and Yemen, preventive chemotherapy with mass drug administration of ivermectin is the primary intervention recommended for the elimination of its transmission. METHODS: A dataset of 18,116 geo-referenced prevalence survey datapoints was used to model annual 2000-2018 infection prevalence in Africa and Yemen. Using Bayesian model-based geostatistics, we generated spatially continuous estimates of all-age 2000-2018 onchocerciasis infection prevalence at the 5 × 5-km resolution as well as aggregations to the national level, along with corresponding estimates of the uncertainty in these predictions. RESULTS: As of 2018, the prevalence of onchocerciasis infection continues to be concentrated across central and western Africa, with the highest mean estimates at the national level in Ghana (12.2%, 95% uncertainty interval [UI] 5.0-22.7). Mean estimates exceed 5% infection prevalence at the national level for Cameroon, Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Guinea-Bissau, Sierra Leone, and South Sudan. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis suggests that onchocerciasis infection has declined over the last two decades throughout western and central Africa. Focal areas of Angola, Cameroon, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Ghana, Guinea, Mali, Nigeria, South Sudan, and Uganda continue to have mean microfiladermia prevalence estimates exceeding 25%. At and above this level, the continuation or initiation of mass drug administration with ivermectin is supported. If national programs aim to eliminate onchocerciasis infection, additional surveillance or supervision of areas of predicted high prevalence would be warranted to ensure sufficiently high coverage of program interventions.

Mapping diphtheria-pertussis-tetanus vaccine coverage in Africa, 2000-2016: a spatial and temporal modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Routine childhood vaccination is among the most cost-effective, successful public health interventions available. Amid substantial investments to expand vaccine delivery throughout Africa and strengthen administrative reporting systems, most countries still require robust measures of local routine vaccine coverage and changes in geographical inequalities over time. METHODS: This analysis drew from 183 surveys done between 2000 and 2016, including data from 881 268 children in 49 African countries. We used a Bayesian geostatistical model calibrated to results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017, to produce annual estimates with high-spatial resolution (5 ×    5 km) of diphtheria-pertussis-tetanus (DPT) vaccine coverage and dropout for children aged 12-23 months in 52 African countries from 2000 to 2016. FINDINGS: Estimated third-dose (DPT3) coverage increased in 72·3% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 64·6-80·3) of second-level administrative units in Africa from 2000 to 2016, but substantial geographical inequalities in DPT coverage remained across and within African countries. In 2016, DPT3 coverage at the second administrative (ie, district) level varied by more than 25% in 29 of 52 countries, with only two (Morocco and Rwanda) of 52 countries meeting the Global Vaccine Action Plan target of 80% DPT3 coverage or higher in all second-level administrative units with high confidence (posterior probability ≥95%). Large areas of low DPT3 coverage (≤50%) were identified in the Sahel, Somalia, eastern Ethiopia, and in Angola. Low first-dose (DPT1) coverage (≤50%) and high relative dropout (≥30%) together drove low DPT3 coverage across the Sahel, Somalia, eastern Ethiopia, Guinea, and Angola. INTERPRETATION: Despite substantial progress in Africa, marked national and subnational inequalities in DPT coverage persist throughout the continent. These results can help identify areas of low coverage and vaccine delivery system vulnerabilities and can ultimately support more precise targeting of resources to improve vaccine coverage and health outcomes for African children. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Incidence, prevalence and mortality rates of malaria in Ethiopia from 1990 to 2015: analysis of the global burden of diseases 2015.

BACKGROUND: In Ethiopia there is no complete registration system to measure disease burden and risk factors accurately. In this study, the 2015 global burden of diseases, injuries and risk factors (GBD) data were used to analyse the incidence, prevalence and mortality rates of malaria in Ethiopia over the last 25 years. METHODS: GBD 2015 used verbal autopsy surveys, reports, and published scientific articles to estimate the burden of malaria in Ethiopia. Age and gender-specific causes of death for malaria were estimated using cause of death ensemble modelling. RESULTS: The number of new cases of malaria declined from 2.8 million [95% uncertainty interval (UI) 1.4-4.5 million] in 1990 to 621,345 (95% UI 462,230-797,442) in 2015. Malaria caused an estimated 30,323 deaths (95% UI 11,533.3-61,215.3) in 1990 and 1561 deaths (95% UI 752.8-2660.5) in 2015, a 94.8% reduction over the 25 years. Age-standardized mortality rate of malaria has declined by 96.5% between 1990 and 2015 with an annual rate of change of 13.4%. Age-standardized malaria incidence rate among all ages and gender declined by 88.7% between 1990 and 2015. The number of disability-adjusted life years lost (DALY) due to malaria decreased from 2.2 million (95% UI 0.76-4.7 million) in 1990 to 0.18 million (95% UI 0.12-0.26 million) in 2015, with a total reduction 91.7%. Similarly, age-standardized DALY rate declined by 94.8% during the same period. CONCLUSIONS: Ethiopia has achieved a 50% reduction target of malaria of the millennium development goals. The country should strengthen its malaria control and treatment strategies to achieve the sustainable development goals.

Role of male partner involvement in ART retention and adherence in Malawi's Option B+ program.

Malawi's Option B+ program provides all HIV-infected pregnant women free lifelong antiretroviral therapy (ART), but challenges remain regarding retention and ART adherence, potentially due to male partner barriers. We explored relationships between male partner involvement and Option B+ retention and adherence. In 2014, a randomized controlled trial in Malawi compared male recruitment strategies for couple HIV testing and counseling (cHTC) at an antenatal clinic. This secondary analysis was conducted among the entire cohort (N = 200) of women, irrespective of randomization status. We assessed whether cHTC attendance, early disclosure of HIV-positive status, and partner ART reminders were associated with retention and adherence at one month after starting treatment. Retention was defined as attending HIV clinic follow-up within one day of running out of pills. Adherence was defined as taking ≥95% of ARTs by pill count. We used binomial regression to calculate adjusted risk ratios (aRR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Median female age was 26 years. Most women (79%) were retained; of these, 68% were adherent. Receiving cHTC was associated with improved retention (aRR 1.33, 95% CI 1.12, 1.59). Receiving male partner ART reminders was weakly associated with retention (aRR 1.16, 95% CI 0.96, 1.39). Disclosure within one day was not associated with retention (aRR 1.08, 95% CI: 0.91, 1.28). Among those who were retained, these three behaviors were not associated with improved 95% adherence. CHTC could play an important role in improving Option B+ retention. Increasing cHTC participation and enhancing adherence-related messages within cHTC are important.

Multivariable analysis to determine if HIV-1 Tat dicysteine motif is associated with neurodevelopmental delay in HIV-infected children in Malawi.

BACKGROUND: HIV-1 Tat protein is implicated in HIV-neuropathogenesis. Tat C31S polymorphism (Tat(CS)) has been associated with milder neuropathology in vitro and in animal models but this has not been addressed in a cohort of HIV-infected adults or children. METHODS: HIV viral load (VL) in plasma and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) were determined and plasma HIV tat gene was sequenced. Neurodevelopmental assessment was performed using Bayley Scales of Infant Development III (BSID-III), with scores standardized to Malawian norms. The association between Tat(CS) and BSID-III scores was evaluated using multivariate linear regression. RESULTS: Neurodevelopmental assessment and HIV tat genotyping were available for 33 children. Mean age was 19.4 (SD 7.1) months, mean log VL was 5.9 copies/mL (SD 0.1) in plasma and 3.9 copies/mL (SD 0.9) in CSF. The prevalence of Tat(CC) was 27 %. Z-scores for BSID-III subtests ranged from -1.3 to -3.9. Tat(CC) was not associated with higher BSID-III z-scores. CONCLUSIONS: The hypothesis of milder neuropathology in individuals infected with HIV Tat(CS) was not confirmed in this small cohort of Malawian children. Future studies of tat genotype and neurocognitive disorder should be performed using larger sample sizes and investigate if this finding is due to differences in HIV neuropathogenesis between children and adults.

Malaria prevalence, anemia and baseline intervention coverage prior to mass net distributions in Abia and Plateau States, Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: Nigeria suffers the world's largest malaria burden, with approximately 51 million cases and 207,000 deaths annually. As part of the country's aim to reduce by 50% malaria-related morbidity and mortality by 2013, it embarked on mass distribution of free long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs). METHODS: Prior to net distribution campaigns in Abia and Plateau States, Nigeria, a modified malaria indicator survey was conducted in September 2010 to determine baseline state-level estimates of Plasmodium prevalence, childhood anemia, indoor residual spraying (IRS) coverage and bednet ownership and utilization. RESULTS: Overall age-adjusted prevalence of Plasmodium infection by microscopy was similar between Abia (36.1%, 95% CI: 32.3%-40.1%; n = 2,936) and Plateau (36.6%, 95% CI: 31.3%-42.3%; n = 4,209), with prevalence highest among children 5-9 years. P. malariae accounted for 32.0% of infections in Abia, but only 1.4% of infections in Plateau. More than half of children ≤10 years were anemic, with anemia significantly higher in Abia (76.9%, 95% CI: 72.1%-81.0%) versus Plateau (57.1%, 95% CI: 50.6%-63.4%). Less than 1% of households in Abia (n = 1,305) or Plateau (n = 1,335) received IRS in the 12 months prior to survey. Household ownership of at least one bednet of any type was 10.1% (95% CI: 7.5%-13.4%) in Abia and 35.1% (95% CI: 29.2%-41.5%) in Plateau. Ownership of two or more bednets was 2.1% (95% CI: 1.2%-3.7%) in Abia and 14.5% (95% CI: 10.2%-20.3%) in Plateau. Overall reported net use the night before the survey among all individuals, children <5 years, and pregnant women was 3.4%, 6.0% and 5.7%, respectively in Abia and 14.7%, 19.1% and 21.0%, respectively in Plateau. Among households owning nets, 34.4% of children <5 years and 31.6% of pregnant women in Abia used a net, compared to 52.6% of children and 62.7% of pregnant women in Plateau. CONCLUSIONS: These results reveal high Plasmodium prevalence and childhood anemia in both states, low baseline coverage of IRS and LLINs, and sub-optimal net use-especially among age groups with highest observed malaria burden.

Characteristics of individuals with cystic fibrosis in the United States ineligible for ivacaftor and elexacaftor/tezacaftor/ivacaftor.

BACKGROUND: We characterized people with cystic fibrosis (CF) ineligible by genotype (not age) for currently approved CFTR modulator therapy using data from the US CF Foundation Patient Registry (CFFPR). METHODS: We summarized clinical characteristics using CFFPR data from 2017 to 2022. Annual rate of change in percent predicted of forced expiratory volume in one second (ppFEV1) was estimated using generalized estimating equations. RESULTS: A total of 2,790 individuals with CF met inclusion criteria. In 2022, 12 % were less than 6 years old, 16 % were age 6-12 years, 18 % age 12-18 years and 54 % were ≥18 years. The proportion identified as White was 74 %, 17 % Black, and 26 % as Hispanic. The median (IQR) age at diagnosis was 1.2 (0.5, 9.1) months for children and 3.1 (0.3, 17.4) years for adults. Median (IQR) ppFEV1 among children was 91.9 (80.3; 102.4) and among adults, 74.3 (52.4; 90.4). Pancreatic enzymes were prescribed for 77.8 %. Population-level average (95 % CI) rates of decline in ppFEV1 among the pancreatic insufficient population was -1.5 per year (-1.8; -1.2) for ages 6 to <11 years, -2.2 per year (-2.6; -1.8) for ages 12 to <18 years, and -1.5 per year (-1.7; -1.3) for adults. CONCLUSIONS: We describe the CFTR modulator ineligible population in the US in 2017-2022. With a growing pipeline of therapies aimed at improving CFTR function for those who cannot benefit from modulators due to ineligibility, characterization of both the size and outcomes of these populations are critical to inform optimal clinical development plans and future clinical trials.

FEV1 Variability Predicts Lung Transplant or Mortality in Cystic Fibrosis Patients in the US.

RATIONALE: Declines in percent predicted Forced Expiratory Volume in 1 Second (ppFEV1) are an important marker of clinical progression of Cystic Fibrosis (CF). OBJECTIVES: We examined ppFEV1 variability on a combined outcome of lung transplant or death. METHODS: We estimated the association between ppFEV1 variability and the combined outcome of lung transplant or death. We included children ages 8 years and above with CF and two prior years of ppFEV1 data before baseline between 2005 and 2021. We defined ppFEV1 increased variability as any relative increase or decrease of at least 10% in ppFEV1 from a two-year averaged baseline. A marginal structural Cox proportional hazards model was used. We examined a cumulative measure of ppFEV1 variability, defined as the cumulative proportion of visits with ppFEV1 variability at each visit. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were generated based upon quartiles of the cumulative distribution of ppFEV1 variability. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: We included 9,706 CF patients in our cohort. Median age at cohort entry was 8.3 (IQR 8.2 - 8.4) years, 50% of patients were female, 94% white, and median baseline ppFEV1 was 94.4 (IQR 81.6 - 106.1). The unadjusted HR for increased ppFEV1 variability on lung transplant/mortality was 4.13 (95% CI 3.48 - 4.90) and the weighted HR was 1.49 (95% CI 1.19 - 1.86). Survival curves stratified by quartile of cumulative variability demonstrated an increased hazard of lung transplant/mortality as the proportion of cumulative ppFEV1 variability increased. CONCLUSIONS: We found a strong association between ppFEV1 variability and lung transplant or mortality in a cohort of people with CF in the US.

Treatment of small as well as large declines in lung function enhances recovery to baseline in people with CF.

BACKGROUND: The benefit of antibiotic treatment of acute drops in FEV1 percent predicted (FEV1pp) has been clearly established, but data from the early 2000s showed inconsistent treatment. Further, there is no empirical evidence for what magnitude of drop is clinically significant. METHODS: We used data from the CF Foundation Patient Registry (CFFPR) from 2016 to 2019 to determine the association between treatment (any IV antibiotics, only oral or newly prescribed inhaled antibiotics, or no antibiotic therapy) following a decline of ≥5% from baseline FEV1pp and return to 100% baseline FEV1pp days using multivariable logistic regression including an interaction between the magnitude of decline and treatment category. RESULTS: Overall, 16,495 PWCF had a decline: 16.5% were treated with IV antibiotics, 25.0% non-IV antibiotics, and 58.5% received no antibiotics. Antibiotic treatment was more likely for those with lower lung function, history of a positive PA culture, older age and larger FEV1 decline (p < 0.001). Treatment with IV antibiotics or oral/inhaled antibiotics was associated with a higher odds of recovery to baseline compared to no treatment across all levels of decline, including declines of 5%-10%. CONCLUSIONS: A large proportion of acute drops in FEV1pp continue to be untreated, especially in younger patients and those with higher baseline lung function. Acute drops as small as 5% predicted are less likely to be recovered if antibiotic treatment is not prescribed. These findings suggest the need for more aggressive antimicrobial treatment of acute drops in FEV1, including those of a magnitude previously believed to be associated with self-recovery.

Impact of day-to-day variation in FEV1 on measures of change: A conceptual description.

Clinical trials often demonstrate treatment efficacy through change in forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1), comparing single FEV1 measurements from post- versus pre-treatment timepoints. Day-to-day variation in measured FEV1 is common for reasons such as diurnal variation and intermittent health changes, relative to a stable, monthly average. This variation can alter estimation of associations between change in FEV1 and baseline in predictable ways, through a phenomenon called regression to the mean. We quantify and explain day-to-day variation in percent-predicted FEV1 (ppFEV1) from 4 previous trials, and we present a statistical, data-driven explanation for potential bias in ceiling and floor effects due to commonly observed amounts of variation. We recommend accounting for variation when assessing associations between baseline value and change in CF outcomes in single-arm trials, and we consider possible impact of variation on conventional standards for study eligibility.

Clinical outcomes at 9-10 years of age in children born with cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator related metabolic syndrome.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: There are limited data on cystic fibrosis (CF) transmembrane conductance regulator-related metabolic syndrome (CRMS) outcomes beyond infancy. The goal of this study was to analyze outcomes of infants with CRMS up to the age of 9-10 years using the CF Foundation Patient Registry (CFFPR). METHODS: We analyzed data from the CFFPR for individuals with CF and CRMS born between 2010 and 2020. We classified all patients based on the clinical diagnosis reported by the CF care center and the diagnosis using CFF guideline definitions for CF and CRMS, classifying children into groups based on agreement between clinical report and guideline criteria. Descriptive statistics for the cohort were calculated for demographics, nutritional outcomes, and microbiology for the first year of life and lung function and growth outcomes were summarized for ages 6-10 years. RESULTS: From 2010 to 2020, there were 8765 children with diagnosis of CF or CRMS entered into the CFFPR with sufficient diagnostic data for classification, of which 7591 children had a clinical diagnosis of CF and 1174 had a clinical diagnosis of CRMS. CRMS patients exhibited normal nutritional indices and pulmonary function up to age 9-10 years. The presence of respiratory bacteria associated with CF, such as Pseudomonas aeruginosa from CRMS patients ranged from 2.1% to 9.1% after the first year of life. CONCLUSIONS: Children with CRMS demonstrate normal pulmonary and nutritional outcomes into school age. However, a small percentage of children continue to culture CF-associated respiratory pathogens after infancy.

The impact of switching to race-neutral reference equations on FEV1 percent predicted among people with cystic fibrosis.

RATIONALE: The American Thoracic Society recommended switching to race-neutral spirometry reference equations, as race is a social construct and to avoid normalizing disparities in lung function due to structural racism. Understanding the impact of the race-neutral equations on percent predicted forced expiratory volume in one second (ppFEV1) in people with cystic fibrosis (PwCF) will help prepare patients and providers to interpret pulmonary function test results. OBJECTIVE(S): To quantify the impact of switching from Global Lung Initiative (GLI) 2012 race-specific to GLI 2022 Global race-neutral reference equations on the distribution of ppFEV1 among PwCF of different races. METHODS: Cross-sectional analysis of FEV1 among PwCF ages ≥6 years in the 2021 U.S. Cystic Fibrosis Foundation Patient Registry. We describe the absolute difference in ppFEV1 between the two reference equations by reported race and the effect of age and height on this difference. RESULTS: With the switch to GLI Global, ppFEV1 will increase for White (median increase 4.7, (IQR: 3.1; 6.4)) and Asian (2.6 (IQR: 1.6; 3.7)) individuals and decrease for Black individuals (-7.7, (IQR: -10.9; -5.2)). Other race categories will see minimal changes in median ppFEV1. Individuals with higher baseline ppFEV1 and younger age will see a greater change in ppFEV1 (i.e., a greater improvement among White and Asian individuals and a greater decline among Black individuals). CONCLUSIONS: Switching from GLI 2012 race-specific reference equations to GLI 2022 Global race-neutral equations will result in larger reductions in ppFEV1 among Black individuals with CF than increases among White and Asian people with CF.

Enhancing immunogenic responses through CDK4/6 and HIF2α inhibition in Merkel cell carcinoma.

Approximately 50% of Merkel cell carcinoma (MCC) patients facing this highly aggressive skin cancer initially respond positively to PD-1-based immunotherapy. Nevertheless, the recurrence of MCC post-immunotherapy emphasizes the pressing need for more effective treatments. Recent research has highlighted Cyclin-dependent kinases 4 and 6 (CDK4/6) as pivotal cell cycle regulators gaining prominence in cancer studies. This study reveals that the CDK4/6 inhibitor, palbociclib can enhance PD-L1 gene transcription and surface expression in MCC cells by activating HIF2α. Inhibiting HIF2α with TC-S7009 effectively counteracts palbociclib-induced PD-L1 transcription and significantly intensifies cell death in MCC. Simultaneously, co-targeting CDK4/6 and HIF2α boosts ROS levels while suppressing SLC7A11, a key regulator of cellular redox balance, promoting ferroptosis- a form of immunogenic cell death linked to iron. Considering the rising importance of immunogenic cell death in immunotherapy, this strategy holds promise for improving future MCC treatments, markedly increasing immunogenic cell death various across various MCC cell lines, thus advancing cancer immunotherapy.

The deubiquitinase USP9X regulates RIT1 protein abundance and oncogenic phenotypes.

RIT1 is a rare and understudied oncogene in lung cancer. Despite structural similarity to other RAS GTPase proteins such as KRAS, oncogenic RIT1 activity does not appear to be tightly regulated by nucleotide exchange or hydrolysis. Instead, there is a growing understanding that the protein abundance of RIT1 is important for its regulation and function. We previously identified the deubiquitinase USP9X as a RIT1 dependency in RIT1-mutant cells. Here, we demonstrate that both wild-type and mutant forms of RIT1 are substrates of USP9X. Depletion of USP9X leads to decreased RIT1 protein stability and abundance and resensitizes cells to epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) tyrosine kinase inhibitors in vitro and in vivo. Our work expands upon the current understanding of RIT1 protein regulation and presents USP9X as a key regulator of RIT1-driven oncogenic phenotypes.

Impact of loss to follow-up on survival estimation for cystic fibrosis.

PURPOSE: Deaths among those lost to follow-up (LTFU) in the Cystic Fibrosis Foundation Patient Registry (CFFPR) are critically important to the epidemiology of cystic fibrosis (CF). Unreported deaths could impact estimates of survival if LTFU is associated with disease trajectory. METHODS: We characterized the LTFU population (1986-2017) from the CFFPR and identified deaths via linkage with the National Death Index (NDI). Median predicted survival age and conditional survival were estimated with and without additional deaths and person-time from the NDI. RESULTS: Of the 10,582 individuals LTFU in the CFFPR, 2,460 (23.2%) matched to an NDI death record. Individuals who died after LTFU with a CF diagnosis were 43% female, 91% White/non-Hispanic, 59% had advanced CF lung disease based on last CFFPR recorded forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) %predicted <40 and 18% were post-lung transplant. Median predicted survival age during the most recent period available, 2013-2017, increased from 44.3 years (95% CI: 43.2, 45.7) to 45.8 years (95% CI 44.5, 47.1) with the inclusion of NDI data. CONCLUSIONS: Inclusion of deaths and additional person-time among those LTFU changed the point estimate of median predicted survival for most time periods and increased the point estimate from 2009 onwards.

Cystic fibrosis prevalence in the United States and participation in the Cystic Fibrosis Foundation Patient Registry in 2020.

BACKGROUND: The Cystic Fibrosis Foundation Patient Registry (CFFPR) collects data on individuals with cystic fibrosis (CF) in the United States (US). In 2012, the US CF population was estimated at 33,292 to 34,327 individuals, with 81-84% CFFPR participation. METHODS: In this study, we update these estimates via simulation to account for uncertainty in CF incidence by race or Hispanic ethnicity, initiation of CF newborn screening (NBS) programs by state, and updated cumulative survival for CF births 1968-2020. We defined registry participation as the proportion of individuals alive as of 2020 with any prior CFFPR participation as well as the proportion with contributing data in 2019 or 2020; we summarize CFFPR participation for those born prior to 1968. RESULTS: We estimated the 2020 prevalent CF population between 1968-2020 to be 38,804 (95% Uncertainty Interval (UI): 38,532 to 39,065) individuals, with 77% of the prevalent CF population contributing recent data. CFFPR participation differs by age (54% of those born in 1968) and exceeds >90% of the population born in 2009 or later. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate that the CFFPR remains a valid data source generalizable to the CF population. High participation among younger individuals may reflect the success of newborn screening programs and early referral to CF care. If engagement can be sustained, the percentage of individuals participating in the CFFPR will grow over time and there is an opportunity to identify factors associated with loss to follow up among older individuals to optimize the quality of the CFFPR data.

Contemporary cystic fibrosis incidence rates in Canada and the United States.

BACKGROUND: The availability of new diagnostic algorithms for cystic fibrosis (CF), changing population demographics and programs that impact family planning decisions can influence incidence rates. Thus, previously reported incidence rates in Canada and the United States (US) may be outdated. The objectives of this study were to estimate contemporary CF incidence rates in Canada and the US and to determine if the incidence rate has changed over time. METHOD: This population-based cohort study utilized data between 1995-2019 from the Canadian CF Registry (CCFR), Statistics Canada, US CF Foundation Patient Registry (CFFPR) data, and US Center for Disease Control (CDC) National Vital Statistics System. Incidence was estimated using the number of live CF births by year, sex, and geographic region using Poisson regression, with the number of live births used as the denominator. To account for delayed diagnoses, we imputed the proportion of diagnoses expected given historical trends, and varying rates of newborn screening (NBS) implementation by region. RESULTS: After accounting for implementation of NBS and delayed diagnoses, the estimated incidence rate for CF in 2019 was 1:3848 (95% CI: 1:3574, 1:4143) live births in Canada compared to 1:5130 (95% CI:1:4996, 1:5267) in the US. There was substantial regional variation in incidence rates within both Canada and the US. Since 1995, incidence rates have decreased at a rate of 1.6% per year in both countries (p<0.001). CONCLUSION: Contemporary CF incidence rates suggest CF incidence is lower than previously reported and varies widely within North America. This information is important for resource planning and for tracking how programs (e.g., genetic counselling, modulator availability etc.) may impact the incidence of CF moving forward.