North-south antiphase of wildfire activity across the pyroregions of continental China driven by NAO and the Antarctic oscillation.

Wildfires are a natural disturbance in many parts of the world, but fire regimes are changing as a result of anthropogenic pressures. A key uncertainty towards anticipating future changes in burned area lies in understanding the effects of climate teleconnections (CTs). Here we test how different CTs impact burned area in China, a large country comprising different biomes and where similar fire-suppression and post-fire afforestation policies are implemented. We observed diverging temporal trends in burned area across the different pyroregions of China, from increases in the Northeastern grasslands and mixed forests pyroregion to decreases in the Southern tropical forests pyroregion. This North-South antiphase in fire activity was being partly driven by joint effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Antarctic Oscillation, which exerted contrasting effects on fire weather across latitude. El Niño Southern Oscillation and the other examined teleconnections had minor effects over burned area. The increasing burned area in the NE-mixed forests pyroregion indicates that mega-fires may increase under global warming but their occurrence may be modulated by potential strengthening or weakening of NAO and AAO.

Drivers and implications of the extreme 2022 wildfire season in Southwest Europe.

Wildfire is a common phenomenon in Mediterranean countries but the 2022 fire season has been extreme in southwest Europe (Portugal, Spain and France). Here we provide a preliminary but comprehensive analysis of 2022's wildfire season in southwest Europe. Burned area has exceeded the 2001-2021 median by a factor of 52 in some regions and large wildfires (>500 ha) started to occur in June-July, earlier than the traditional fire season. These anomalies were associated with record-breaking values of fuel dryness, atmospheric water demand and pyrometeorological conditions. Live fuel moisture content was below the historical minima for almost 50 % of the season in some regions. A few large wildfires were responsible for 82 % of the burned area and, in turn, 47 % of the area burned occurred in protected areas. Shrublands, transitional woodlands and conifer forests (but not eucalypt plantations) were the land cover types most affected by extreme fires. As climate change intensifies, we can expect such fire seasons to become the new normal in large parts of the continent, potentially leading to major negative impacts on rural economies. These results highlight the need for landscape level fuel management also in protected areas, to avoid fire-induced biodiversity losses and landscape scale degradation. Our results have important policy implications and indicate that fire prevention should be explicitly addressed within continental forest legislation and strategies.

Convergence in critical fuel moisture and fire weather thresholds associated with fire activity in the pyroregions of Mediterranean Europe.

Wildfires are becoming an increasing threat to many communities worldwide. There has been substantial progress towards understanding the proximal causes of increased fire activity in recent years at regional and national scales. However, subcontinental scale examinations of the commonalities and differences in the drivers of fire activity across different regions are rare in the Mediterranean zone of the European Union (EUMed). Here, we first develop a new classification of EUMed pyroregions, based on grouping different ecoregions with similar seasonal patterns of burned area. We then examine the thresholds associated with fire activity in response to different drivers related to fuel moisture, surface meteorology and atmospheric stability. We document an overarching role for variation in dead fuel moisture content (FMd), or its atmospheric proxy of vapor pressure deficit (VPD), as the major driver of fire activity. A proxy for live fuel moisture content (EVI), wind speed (WS) and the Continuous Haines Index (CH) played secondary, albeit important, roles. There were minor differences in the actual threshold values of FMd (10-12%), EVI (0.29-0.36) and CH (4.9-5.5) associated with the onset of fire activity across pyroregions with peak fire seasons in summer and fall, despite very marked differences in mean annual burned area and fire size range. The average size of fire events increased with the number of drivers exceeding critical thresholds and reaching increasingly extreme values of a driver led to disproportionate increases in the likelihood of a fire becoming a large fire. For instance, the percentage of fires >500 ha increased from 2% to 25% as FMd changed from the wettest to the driest quantile. Our study is among the first to jointly address the roles of fuel moisture, surface meteorology and atmospheric stability on fire activity in EUMed and provides novel insights on the interactions across fire activity triggers.

Climate change induced declines in fuel moisture may turn currently fire-free Pyrenean mountain forests into fire-prone ecosystems.

Fuel moisture limits the availability of fuel to wildfires in many forest areas worldwide, but the effects of climate change on moisture constraints remain largely unknown. Here we addressed how climate affects fuel moisture in pine stands from Catalonia, NE Spain, and the potential effects of increasing climate aridity on burned area in the Pyrenees, a mesic mountainous area where fire is currently rare. We first quantified variation in fuel moisture in six sites distributed across an altitudinal gradient where the long-term mean annual temperature and precipitation vary by 6-15 °C and 395-933 mm, respectively. We observed significant spatial variation in live (78-162%) and dead (10-15%) fuel moisture across sites. The pattern of variation was negatively linked (r = |0.6|-|0.9|) to increases in vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and in the Aridity Index. Using seasonal fire records over 2006-2020, we observed that summer burned area in the Mediterranean forests of Northeast Spain and Southern France was strongly dependent on VPD (r = 0.93), the major driver (and predictor) of dead fuel moisture content (DFMC) at our sites. Based on the difference between VPD thresholds associated with large wildfire seasons in the Mediterranean (3.6 kPa) and the maximum VPD observed in surrounding Pyrenean mountains (3.1 kPa), we quantified the "safety margin" for Pyrenean forests (difference between actual VPD and that associated with large wildfires) at 0.5 kPa. The effects of live fuel moisture content (LFMC) on burned area were not significant under current conditions, a situation that may change with projected increases in climate aridity. Overall, our results indicate that DFMC in currently fire-free areas in Europe, like the Pyrenees, with vast amounts of fuel in many forest stands, may reach critical dryness thresholds beyond the safety margin and experience large wildfires after only mild increases in VPD, although LFMC can modulate the response.