Modeling the epidemiological impact of the UNAIDS 2025 targets to end AIDS as a public health threat by 2030.

BACKGROUND: UNAIDS has established new program targets for 2025 to achieve the goal of eliminating AIDS as a public health threat by 2030. This study reports on efforts to use mathematical models to estimate the impact of achieving those targets. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We simulated the impact of achieving the targets at country level using the Goals model, a mathematical simulation model of HIV epidemic dynamics that includes the impact of prevention and treatment interventions. For 77 high-burden countries, we fit the model to surveillance and survey data for 1970 to 2020 and then projected the impact of achieving the targets for the period 2019 to 2030. Results from these 77 countries were extrapolated to produce estimates for 96 others. Goals model results were checked by comparing against projections done with the Optima HIV model and the AIDS Epidemic Model (AEM) for selected countries. We included estimates of the impact of societal enablers (access to justice and law reform, stigma and discrimination elimination, and gender equality) and the impact of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). Results show that achieving the 2025 targets would reduce new annual infections by 83% (71% to 86% across regions) and AIDS-related deaths by 78% (67% to 81% across regions) by 2025 compared to 2010. Lack of progress on societal enablers could endanger these achievements and result in as many as 2.6 million (44%) cumulative additional new HIV infections and 440,000 (54%) more AIDS-related deaths between 2020 and 2030 compared to full achievement of all targets. COVID-19-related disruptions could increase new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths by 10% in the next 2 years, but targets could still be achieved by 2025. Study limitations include the reliance on self-reports for most data on behaviors, the use of intervention effect sizes from published studies that may overstate intervention impacts outside of controlled study settings, and the use of proxy countries to estimate the impact in countries with fewer than 4,000 annual HIV infections. CONCLUSIONS: The new targets for 2025 build on the progress made since 2010 and represent ambitious short-term goals. Achieving these targets would bring us close to the goals of reducing new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths by 90% between 2010 and 2030. By 2025, global new infections and AIDS deaths would drop to 4.4 and 3.9 per 100,000 population, and the number of people living with HIV (PLHIV) would be declining. There would be 32 million people on treatment, and they would need continuing support for their lifetime. Incidence for the total global population would be below 0.15% everywhere. The number of PLHIV would start declining by 2023.

Ending AIDS as a public health threat by 2030: Time to reset targets for 2025.

Paul De Lay and co-authors introduce a Collection on the design of targets for ending the AIDS epidemic.

Determinants of government HIV/AIDS financing: a 10-year trend analysis from 125 low- and middle-income countries.

BACKGROUND: Trends and predictors of domestic spending from public sources provide national authorities and international donors with a better understanding of the HIV financing architecture, the fulfillment of governments' commitments and potential for long-term sustainability. METHODS: We analyzed government financing of HIV using evidence from country reports on domestic spending. Panel data from 2000 to 2010 included information from 647 country-years amongst 125 countries. A random-effects model was used to analyze ten year trends and identify independent predictors of public HIV spending. RESULTS: Low- and middle-income countries spent US$ 2.1 billion from government sources in 2000, growing to US$ 6.6 billion in 2010, a three-fold increase. Per capita spending in 2010 ranged from 5 cents in low-level HIV epidemics in the Middle East to US$ 32 in upper-middle income countries with generalized HIV epidemics in Southern Africa. The average domestic public spending per capita was US$ 2.55. The analysis found that GDP per capita and HIV prevalence are positively associated with increasing levels of HIV-spending from public sources; a 10 percent increase in HIV prevalence is associated with a 2.5 percent increase in domestic funding for HIV. Additionally, a 10 percent increase in GDP per capita is associated with an 11.49 percent increase in public spending for HIV and these associations were highly significant. CONCLUSION: Domestic resources in low- and middle-income countries showed a threefold increase between 2000 and 2010 and currently support 50 percent of the global response with 41 percent coming from sub-Saharan Africa. Domestic spending in LMICs was associated with increased economic growth and an increased burden of HIV. Sustained increases in funding for HIV from public sources were observed in all regions and emphasize the increasing importance of government financing.

Pattern and levels of spending allocated to HIV prevention programs in low- and middle-income countries.

BACKGROUND: AIDS continues to spread at an estimated 2.6 new million infections per year, making the prevention of HIV transmission a critical public health issue. The dramatic growth in global resources for AIDS has produced a steady scale-up in treatment and care that has not been equally matched by preventive services. This paper is a detailed analysis of how countries are choosing to spend these more limited prevention funds. METHODS: We analyzed prevention spending in 69 low- and middle-income countries with a variety of epidemic types, using data from national domestic spending reports. Spending information was from public and international sources and was analyzed based on the National AIDS Spending Assessment (NASA) methods and classifications. RESULTS: Overall, prevention received 21% of HIV resources compared to 53% of funding allocated to treatment and care. Prevention relies primarily on international donors, who accounted for 65% of all prevention resources and 93% of funding in low-income countries. For the subset of 53 countries that provided detailed spending information, we found that 60% of prevention resources were spent in five areas: communication for social and behavioral change (16%), voluntary counselling and testing (14%), prevention of mother-to-child transmission (13%), blood safety (10%) and condom programs (7%). Only 7% of funding was spent on most-at-risk populations and less than 1% on male circumcision. Spending patterns did not consistently reflect current evidence and the HIV specific transmission context of each country. CONCLUSIONS: Despite recognition of its importance, countries are not allocating resources in ways that are likely to achieve the greatest impact on prevention across all epidemic types. Within prevention spending itself, a greater share of resources need to be matched with interventions that approximate the specific needs and drivers of each country's epidemic.

Protecting the confidentiality and security of personal health information in low- and middle-income countries in the era of SDGs and Big Data.

BACKGROUND: As increasing amounts of personal information are being collected through a plethora of electronic modalities by statutory and non-statutory organizations, ensuring the confidentiality and security of such information has become a major issue globally. While the use of many of these media can be beneficial to individuals or populations, they can also be open to abuse by individuals or statutory and non-statutory organizations. Recent examples include collection of personal information by national security systems and the development of national programs like the Chinese Social Credit System. In many low- and middle-income countries, an increasing amount of personal health information is being collected. The collection of personal health information is necessary, in order to develop longitudinal medical records and to monitor and evaluate the use, cost, outcome, and impact of health services at facility, sub-national, and national levels. However, if personal health information is not held confidentially and securely, individuals with communicable or non-communicable diseases (NCDs) may be reluctant to use preventive or therapeutic health services, due to fear of being stigmatized or discriminated against. While policymakers and other stakeholders in these countries recognize the need to develop and implement policies for protecting the privacy, confidentiality and security of personal health information, to date few of these countries have developed, let alone implemented, coherent policies. The global HIV response continues to emphasize the importance of collecting HIV-health information, recently re-iterated by the Fast Track to End AIDS by 2030 program and the recent changes in the Guidelines on When to Start Antiretroviral Therapy and on Pre-exposure Prophylaxis for HIV. The success of developing HIV treatment cascades in low- and middle-income countries will require the development of National Health Identification Systems. The success of programs like Universal Health Coverage, under the recently ratified Sustainable Development Goals is also contingent on the availability of personal health information for communicable and non-communicable diseases. DESIGN: Guidance for countries to develop and implement their own guidelines for protecting HIV-information formed the basis of identifying a number of fundamental principles, governing the areas of privacy, confidentiality and security. The use of individual-level data must balance maximizing the benefits from their most effective and fullest use, and minimizing harm resulting from their malicious or inadvertent release. DISCUSSION: These general principles are described in this paper, as along with a bibliography referring to more detailed technical information. A country assessment tool and user's manual, based on these principles, have been developed to support countries to assess the privacy, confidentiality, and security of personal health information at facility, data warehouse/repository, and national levels. The successful development and implementation of national guidance will require strong collaboration at local, regional, and national levels, and this is a pre-condition for the successful implementation of a range of national and global programs. CONCLUSION: This paper is a call for action for stakeholders in low- and middle-income countries to develop and implement such coherent policies and provides fundamental principles governing the areas of privacy, confidentiality, and security of personal health information being collected in low- and middle-income countries.

Scaling-up the use of generic antiretrovirals in resource-limited countries: generic drugs for health.

The number of people living with HIV (PLHIV) continues to increase around the world because of the increasing number on antiretroviral therapy (ART) and their associated increase of life expectancy, in addition to the number of people newly infected with HIV each year. Unless a 'cure' can be found for HIV infection, PLHIV can anticipate the need to take antiretroviral drugs (ARVs) for the rest of their lives. Because ARVs are now being used for HIV prevention, as well as for therapeutic purposes, the need for effective, affordable ARVs with few adverse effects will continue to rise. It is important to note that the dramatic growth in treatment coverage of PLHIV seen during the past decade has been primarily due to the increased use of generic ARVs. Thus, there will be a need to scale-up the research and development, production, distribution and access to generic ARVs and ART regimens. However, these processes must occur within national and international regulated free-market economic systems and must deal with increasingly multifaceted patent issues affecting the price while ensuring the quality of the ARVs. National and international regulatory mechanisms will have to evolve, which will affect broader national and international economic and trade issues. Because of the complexity of these issues, the Editors of this Supplement conceived of asking experts in their fields to describe the various steps from relevant research and development, to production of generic ARVs, their delivery to countries and subsequently to PLHIV in low- and middle-income countries. A main objective was to highlight how these steps are interrelated, how the production and delivery of these drugs to PLHIV in resource-limited countries can be made more effective and efficient, and what the lessons are for the production and delivery of a broader set of drugs to people in low- and middle-income countries.

Costs and cost-effectiveness of HIV community services: quantity and quality of studies published 1986-2011.

Community services comprise an important part of a country's HIV response. English language cost and cost-effectiveness studies of HIV community services published between 1986 and 2011 were reviewed but only 74 suitable studies were identified, 66% of which were performed in five countries. Mean study scores by continent varied from 42 to 69% of the maximum score, reflecting variation in topics covered and the quality of coverage: 38% of studies covered key and 11% other vulnerable populations - a country's response is most effective and efficient if these populations are identified given they are key to a successful response. Unit costs were estimated using different costing methods and outcomes. Community services will need to routinely collect and analyze information on their use, cost, outcome and impact using standardized costing methods and outcomes. Cost estimates need to be disaggregated into relevant cost items and stratified by severity and existing comorbidities. Expenditure tracking and costing of services are complementary aspects of the health sector 'resource cycle' that feed into a country's investment framework and the development and implementation of national strategic plans.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of Option B+ for HIV prevention and treatment of mothers and children in Malawi.

BACKGROUND: The Ministry of Health in Malawi is implementing a pragmatic and innovative approach for the management of all HIV-infected pregnant women, termed Option B+, which consists of providing life-long antiretroviral treatment, regardless of their CD4 count or clinical stage. Our objective was to determine if Option B+ represents a cost-effective option. METHODS: A decision model simulates the disease progression of a cohort of HIV-infected pregnant women receiving prophylaxis and antiretroviral therapy, and estimates the number of paediatric infections averted and maternal life years gained over a ten-year time horizon. We assess the cost-effectiveness from the Ministry of Health perspective while taking into account the practical realities of implementing ART services in Malawi. RESULTS: If implemented as recommended by the World Health Organization, options A, B and B+ are equivalent in preventing new infant infections, yielding cost effectiveness ratios between US$ 37 and US$ 69 per disability adjusted life year averted in children. However, when the three options are compared to the current practice, the provision of antiretroviral therapy to all mothers (Option B+) not only prevents infant infections, but also improves the ten-year survival in mothers more than four-fold. This translates into saving more than 250,000 maternal life years, as compared to mothers receiving only Option A or B, with savings of 153,000 and 172,000 life years respectively. Option B+ also yields favourable incremental cost effectiveness ratios (ICER) of US$ 455 per life year gained over the current practice. CONCLUSION: In Malawi, Option B+ represents a favorable policy option from a cost-effectiveness perspective to prevent future infant infections, save mothers' lives and reduce orphanhood. Although Option B+ would require more financial resources initially, it would save societal resources in the long-term and represents a strategic option to simplify and integrate HIV services into maternal, newborn and child health programmes.

Counting the cost of not costing HIV health facilities accurately: pay now, or pay more later.

The HIV pandemic continues to be one of our greatest contemporary public health threats. Policy makers in many middle- and low-income countries are in the process of scaling up HIV prevention, treatment and care services in the context of a reduction in international HIV funding due to the global economic downturn. In order to scale up services that are sustainable in the long term, policy makers and implementers need to have access to robust and contemporary strategic information, including financial information on expenditure and cost, in order to be able to plan, implement, monitor and evaluate HIV services. A major problem in middle- and low-income countries continues to be a lack of basic information on the use of services, their cost, outcome and impact, while those few costing studies that have been performed were often not done in a standardized fashion. Some researchers handle this by transposing information from one country to another, developing mathematical or statistical models that rest on assumptions or information that may not be applicable, or using top-down costing methods that only provide global financial costs rather than using bottom-up ingredients-based costing. While these methods provide answers in the short term, countries should develop systematic data collection systems to store, transfer and produce robust and contemporary strategic financial information for stakeholders at local, sub-national and national levels. National aggregated information should act as the main source of financial data for international donors, agencies or other organizations involved with the global HIV response. This paper describes the financial information required by policy makers and other stakeholders to enable them to make evidence-informed decisions and reviews the quantity and quality of the financial information available, as indicated by cost studies published between 1981 and 2008. Among the lessons learned from reviewing these studies, a need was identified for providing countries with practical guidance to produce reliable and standardized costing data to monitor performance, as countries want to improve programmes and services, and have to demonstrate an efficient use of resources. Finally, the issues raised in this paper relate to the provision of all areas of healthcare in countries and it is going to be increasingly important to leverage the lessons learned from the HIV experience and use resources more effectively and efficiently to improve health systems in general.

Are we on course for reporting on the Millennium Development Goals in 2015?

OBJECTIVES: At the 2001 United Nations General Assembly Special Session on HIV/AIDS (UNGASS), Member States agreed to regularly review progress made in national responses to HIV. This article provides (1) a brief overview of how the resultant global UNGASS reporting system was developed; (2) the origins, background, limitations and potential of that system; (3) an overview of the articles in this supplement; and (4) crosscutting institutional and methodological issues. METHODS: United Nations Member States biennially provide The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) with data on 25 core indicators of national responses to HIV, collected in Country Progress Reports. This article critically reviews and interprets these data in light of international political considerations and overall data needs. RESULTS: There has been a considerable improvement in response rates, accompanied by an increase in data quality and completeness. Both nationally and internationally, the UNGASS process is viewed as being more substantial and important than a reporting exercise to the United Nations General Assembly. The process has catalyzed the development of national monitoring systems and has created opportunities for civil society to monitor and challenge government commitments and deeds. CONCLUSIONS: Although the UNGASS global reporting system now comprises an unequaled wealth of data on HIV responses, collected from a broad range of countries, it cannot yet answer several critical questions about the progress and effectiveness of those responses. Evaluation studies that go beyond indicator monitoring are needed, but they will take time to design, fund, implement and interpret. In the meantime, this global monitoring system provides a good indication of the overall progress in the global response to HIV and whether Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6 (to halt and reverse the HIV epidemic) is likely to be reached by 2015.

Financing the response to HIV in low-income and middle-income countries.

OBJECTIVES: To describe levels of national HIV spending and examine programmatic allocations according to the type of epidemic and country income. METHODS: Cross-sectional analysis of HIV expenditures from 50 low-income and middle-income countries. Sources of information included country reports of domestic spending by programmatic activity and HIV services. These HIV spending categories were cross tabulated by source of financing, stratified by type of HIV epidemic and income level of the country and reported in international dollars (I$). RESULTS: Fifty low-income and middle-income countries spent US $ 2.6 billion (I$ 5.8 billion) on HIV in 2006; 87% of the funding among the 17 low-income countries came from international donors. Average per capita spending was I$ 2.1 and positively correlated with Gross National Income. Per capita spending was I$ 1.5 in 9 countries with low-level HIV epidemics, I$ 1.6 in 27 countries with concentrated HIV epidemics and I$ 9.5 in 14 countries with generalized HIV epidemics. On average, spending on care and treatment represented 50% of AIDS spending across all countries. The treatment-to-prevention spending ratio was 1.5:1, 3:1, and 2:1 in countries with low-level, concentrated and generalized epidemics, respectively. Spending on prevention represented 21% of total AIDS spending. However, expenditures addressing most-at-risk populations represented less than 1% in countries with generalized epidemics and 7% in those with low-level or concentrated epidemics. CONCLUSIONS: The most striking finding is the mismatch between the types of HIV epidemics and the allocation of resources. The current global economic recession will force countries to rethink national strategies, especially in low-income countries with high aid dependency. Mapping HIV expenditures provides crucial guidance for reallocation of resources and supports evidence-based decisions. Now more than ever, countries need to know and act on their epidemics and give priority to the most effective programmatic services.

The global impact of scaling up HIV/AIDS prevention programs in low- and middle-income countries.

A strong, global commitment to expanded prevention programs targeted at sexual transmission and transmission among injecting drug users, started now, could avert 28 million new HIV infections between 2005 and 2015. This figure is more than half of the new infections that might otherwise occur during that period in 125 low- and middle-income countries. Although preventing these new infections would require investing about U.S.$122 billion over this period, it would reduce future needs for treatment and care. Our analysis suggests that it will cost about U.S.$3900 to prevent each new infection, but that this will produce a savings of U.S.$4700 in forgone treatment and care costs. Thus, greater spending on prevention now would not only prevent more than half the new infections that would occur from 2005 to 2015 but would actually produce a net financial saving as future costs for treatment and care are averted.

Politics of monitoring and evaluation: Lessons from the AIDS epidemic.

Monitoring and evaluation programs must strike a balance between generating meaningful tactical information for program managers while taking steps to ensure that public data use does not worsen discrimination and stigma toward people who are positive for the human immunodeficiency virus.