Staging chronic hepatitis C in seven categories using fibrosis biomarker (FibroTest™) and transient elastography (FibroScan®).

BACKGROUND & AIMS: FibroTest™ (FT) and Transient Elastography (TE) have been validated as non-invasive markers of METAVIR fibrosis stages from F0 to F4 using biopsy, and as prognostic markers of liver related mortality in patients with chronic hepatitis C. The aim was to extend the validation of FT and TE as markers of critical steps defined by occurrence of cirrhosis without complications (F4.1), esophageal varices (F4.2), and severe complications (F4.3): primary liver cancer, variceal bleeding, or decompensation (ascites, encephalopathy, or jaundice). METHODS: The updated individual data of 3927 patients (1046 cirrhotics) without complications at baseline were pooled from three prospective cohorts called "EPIC", "Paris", and "Bordeaux" cohorts. RESULTS: At 5 years, among 501 patients without varices at baseline (F4.1) varices occurred in 19 patients [F4.2 incidence of 4.0% (95% CI 2.2-5.8)]. The predictive performance (AUROC) of FT was 0.77 (0.66-0.84; p<0.001). At 10 years severe complications occurred in 203 patients, [F4.3 incidence of 13.4% (9.6-17.1)], including primary liver cancer in 84 patients [6.4% (3.5-9.3)]. FT was predictive (Cox adjusted on treatment) of severe complications [AUROC 0.79 (76-82); p<0.0001], including primary liver cancer [AUROC 0.84 (80-87); p<0.0001]. Similarly TE was predictive of severe complications [AUROC 0.77 (72-81); p<0.0001], including primary liver cancer [AUROC 0.86 (81-90); p<0.0001]. CONCLUSIONS: FibroTest™ and TE increase were associated with the occurrence of all severe complications including hepatocellular carcinoma, hepatic insufficiency, and variceal bleeding. FibroTest™ increase was also associated with the occurrence of esophageal varices.

Staging chronic hepatitis B into seven categories, defining inactive carriers and assessing treatment impact using a fibrosis biomarker (FibroTest®) and elastography (FibroScan®).

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The first aim was to extend the validation of FibroTest® (FT) and transient elastography (TE) as markers of occurrence of cirrhosis without complications (F4.1), oesophageal varices (F4.2), and severe complications (F4.3) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). The second aim was to validate a previous definition of an inactive carrier based on normal FT and ActiTest® (normal-FT-AT). The third aim was to assess the long-term dynamics of fibrosis in patients with sustained virological response. METHODS: The 10-year updated individual data of 1434 patients were pooled from two prospective cohorts. RESULTS: Of the 1312 patients without a history of complications, varices had occurred after 10 years in 14 patients (F4.2, incidence of 1.7%, 95% CI [0.6-2.8]), and severe complications in 25 (F4.3 3.7% [1.8-5.7]), including hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in 21 (3.7% [1.5-5.8]). Using Cox-multivariate analysis adjusted for treatment, viral load, HBeAg status and ALT, FT, and TE were predictive of liver complications (n=37; AUROC=0.83 [0.71-0.90]; p<0.0001) and (n=8/844; AUROC=0.82 [0.72-0.89]; p<0.0001) respectively. Normal FT-AT better identified patients with lower fibrosis progression than the ALT-based standard: 3/163 (1.8%) vs. 16/181 (8.8%; p=0.004) in the Paris cohort, and 5/195 (2.6%) vs. 15/228 (6.6%; p=0.05) in the Bordeaux cohort. Of the 582 responders, 23 had complications (incidence 6.2% [3.2-9.1]) including 19 HCC (5.8% [2.6-9.0]) and 10 with varices (2.6% [0.8-4.4]). Of the 138 responders with advanced fibrosis, only 31% (15-47%) had fibrosis regression. CONCLUSIONS: FibroTest® and TE identified three categories of cirrhosis with increasing morbidity. Normal FibroTest® and ActiTest® were better able to identify inactive hepatitis B carriers than the standard definition. Despite virological response, the overall incidence of cirrhosis increased, with a remaining 5.8% risk of HCC.

Slow regression of liver fibrosis presumed by repeated biomarkers after virological cure in patients with chronic hepatitis C.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Chronic hepatitis C is both a virologic and fibrotic disease and complications can occur in patients with sustained virologic response (SVR) with residual fibrosis. Due to the limitations of repeated biopsies, no studies have assessed the dynamic of fibrosis before and after treatment. Using biopsy as reference, FibroTest™ has been validated as a biomarker of fibrosis progression and regression, with similar prognostic values. The aim was to estimate the impact of SVR on the dynamic of fibrosis presumed by FibroTest™. METHODS: In a prospective cohort, the main end point was the 10-year regression rate of fibrosis, defined as a minimum 0.20 decrease in FibroTest™, equivalent to one METAVIR stage. RESULTS: A total of 933 patients with both repeated FibroTest™ and transient elastography were included. At 10 years, among the 415 patients with baseline advanced fibrosis, 49% (95% CI 33-64%) of the 108 SVR had a regression, which was greater than in the 219 non-responders [23% (14-33%; p < 0.001 vs. SVR)] and not lower than in the 88 non-treated [45% (10-80%; p = 0.39 vs. SVR)] patients. In all 171 SVR, cirrhosis regressed in 24/43 patients, but 15 new cirrhosis cases occurred out of 128 patients, that is only a net reduction of 5.3% [(24-15) = 9/171); (2.4-9.8%)]. Four cases of primary liver cancer occurred in SVR [4.6% (0-9.8)], and 13 in non-responders [5.6% (1.5-9.8); p = 0.07]. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with chronic hepatitis C, and as presumed by FibroTest™, virological cure was associated with slow regression of fibrosis 10years later, a disappointing 5% decrease in cirrhosis cases, and a remaining 5% risk of primary liver cancer.

Prospective direct comparison of non-invasive liver tests in outpatients with type 2 diabetes using intention-to-diagnose analysis.

BACKGROUND: No prospective diagnostic studies have directly compared widespread non-invasive liver tests in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) using the intention-to-diagnose method for each of the three main histological features of metabolic dysfunction associated steatotic liver disease - namely fibrosis, metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH), and steatosis. AIMS: To compare the performance of nine tests using the intention-to-diagnose rather than the standard method, which would exclude non-evaluable participants METHODS: Biopsy was used as the reference with predetermined cut-offs, advanced fibrosis being the main endpoint. The Nash-FibroTest panel including FibroTest-T2D, SteatoTest-T2D and MashTest-T2D was optimised for type 2 diabetes. FibroTest-T2D was compared to vibration-controlled transient elastography stiffness (VCTE), two-dimensional shear-wave elastography stiffness (TD-SWE), and Fibrosis-4 blood test. NashTest-T2D was compared to aspartate aminotransferase. SteatoTest-T2D was compared to the controlled attenuation parameter and the hepatorenal gradient. RESULTS: Among 402 cases, non-evaluable tests were 6.7% for VCTE, 4.0% for hepatorenal gradient, 3.2% for controlled attenuation parameter, 1.5% for TD-SWE, 1.2% for NashTest-T2D, and 0.02% for Fibrosis-4, aspartate aminotransferase and SteatoTest-T2D. The VCTE AUROC for advanced fibrosis was over-estimated by 6% (0.83 [95% CI: 0.78-0.87]) by standard analysis compared to intention-to-diagnose (0.77 [0.72-0.81] p = 0.008). The AUROCs for advanced fibrosis did not differ significantly in intention-to-diagnose between FibroTest-T2D (0.77; 95% CI: 0.73-0.82), VCTE (0.77; 95% CI: 0.72-0.81) and TD-SWE(0.78; 0.74-0.83) but were all higher than the Fibrosis-4 score (0.70; 95% CI all differences ≥7%; p ≤ 0.03). For MASH, MashTest-T2D had a higher AUROC (0.76; 95% CI: 0.70-0.80) than aspartate aminotransferase (0.72; 95% CI: 0.66-0.77; p = 0.035). For steatosis, AUROCs did not differ significantly between SteatoTest-T2D, controlled attenuation parameter and hepatorenal gradient. CONCLUSIONS: In intention-to-diagnose analysis, FibroTest-T2D, TD-SWE and VCTE performed similarly for staging fibrosis, and out-performed Fibrosis-4 in outpatients with type 2 diabetes. The standard analysis over-estimated VCTE performance. CLINICALTRIAL: gov: NCT03634098.

Clinical and genetic definition of serum bilirubin levels for the diagnosis of Gilbert syndrome and hypobilirubinemia.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Gilbert syndrome (GS) is genotypically predetermined by UGT1A1*28 homozygosity in Europeans and is phenotypically defined by hyperbilirubinemia using total bilirubin (TB) cutoff ≥1mg/dL (17 µmol/L). The prevalence of illnesses associated with GS and hypobilirubinemia has never been studied prospectively. As TB varies with UGT1A1*28 genotyping, sex, and age, we propose stratified definitions of TB reference intervals and report the prevalence of illnesses and adjusted 15 years survival. METHODS: UK Biobank with apparently healthy liver participants (middle-aged, n=138,125) were analyzed after the exclusion of of nonhealthy individuals. The stratified TB was classified as GS when TB >90th centile; <10th centile indicated hypobilirubinemia, and between the 10th and 90th centile was normobilirubinemia. We compared the prevalence and survival rates of 54 illnesses using odds ratio (OR), logistic regression, and Cox models adjusted for confounders, and causality by Mendelian randomizations. RESULTS: In women, we identified 10% (7,741/76,809) of GS versus 3.7% (2,819/76,809) using the historical cutoff of ≥1 mg/dL (P<0.0001). When GS and hypobilirubinemia participants were compared with normobilirubinemia, after adjustment and Mendelian randomizations, only cholelithiasis prevalence was significantly higher (OR=1.50; 95% CI [1.3-1.7], P=0.001) in men with GS compared with normobilirubinemia and in causal association with bilirubin (P=0.04). No adjusted survival was significantly associated with GS or hypobilirubinemia. CONCLUSIONS: In middle-aged Europeans, the stratified TB demonstrates a careless GS underestimation in women when using the standard unisex 1 mg/dL cutoff. The prevalence of illnesses is different in GS and hypobilirubinemia as well as survivals before adjusting for confounding factors. With the exception of cholelithiasis in men, these differences were no more significant after adjustment and Mendelian randomization.

Validation of liver fibrosis biomarker (FibroTest) for assessing liver fibrosis progression: proof of concept and first application in a large population.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Time-dependent statistics have been used to assess liver fibrosis progression (LFP) in liver diseases from birth to first biopsy, in a limited number of patients. Non-invasive biomarkers such as FibroTest (FT) should allow the estimation of LFP on larger populations. We aimed at validating this concept by comparing LFP using FT vs. biopsy (P1) and then at applying the non-invasive method to a large population (P2). METHODS: In P1, LFP was assessed using biopsy and FT in 2472 untreated patients: 770 with chronic hepatitis C, 723 with hepatitis B, 761 with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), and 218 with alcoholic fatty liver disease (ALD). In P2, 342,346 interpretable FT prospectively measured were used. LFP was estimated using transition rates (cumulative hazard rate) to cirrhosis (F4) or to minimal fibrosis (>F0). RESULTS: In P1, there was a significant concordance between FT and biopsy estimates of hazards with intraclass correlation (ICC)=0.961 (95% CI 0.948-0.970) and 0.899 (95% CI 0.135-0.969) for F4 and >F0, respectively. This concordance persisted according to the disease and the gender. The more rapid LFP to F4 (biopsy/FT) was observed for men with ALD (1.44/1.62), and the slower for women with NAFLD (0.09/0.02). In P2, the LFP started to increase for men at the age of 30 years. The cumulative fibrosis progression rate to minimal fibrosis in women crossed the "man curve" around the age of 80 years. The following factors were associated with LFP to F4 (all p<0.0001): male gender (Relative Risk=3.29), HIV co-infection (2.33), and residency in Middle East (2.67) or Eastern Europe (2.15). CONCLUSIONS: Validated biomarkers such as FibroTest should allow powerful analysis of fibrosis progression in chronic liver diseases and better identification of risk factors.

Clinical Interest of Serum Alpha-2 Macroglobulin, Apolipoprotein A1, and Haptoglobin in Patients with Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease, with and without Type 2 Diabetes, before or during COVID-19.

In patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) with or without type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), alpha-2 macroglobulin (A2M), apolipoprotein A1 (ApoA1), and haptoglobin are associated with the risk of liver fibrosis, inflammation (NASH), and COVID-19. We assessed if these associations were worsened by T2DM after adjustment by age, sex, obesity, and COVID-19. Three datasets were used: the "Control Population", which enabled standardization of protein serum levels according to age and sex (N = 27,382); the "NAFLD-Biopsy" cohort for associations with liver features (N = 926); and the USA "NAFLD-Serum" cohort for protein kinetics before and during COVID-19 (N = 421,021). The impact of T2DM was assessed by comparing regression curves adjusted by age, sex, and obesity for the liver features in "NAFLD-Biopsy", and before and during COVID-19 pandemic peaks in "NAFLD-Serum". Patients with NAFLD without T2DM, compared with the values of controls, had increased A2M, decreased ApoA1, and increased haptoglobin serum levels. In patients with both NAFLD and T2DM, these significant mean differences were magnified, and even more during the COVID-19 pandemic in comparison with the year 2019 (all p < 0.001), with a maximum ApoA1 decrease of 0.21 g/L in women, and a maximum haptoglobin increase of 0.17 g/L in men. In conclusion, T2DM is associated with abnormal levels of A2M, ApoA1, and haptoglobin independently of NAFLD, age, sex, obesity, and COVID-19.

Validation of the Performance of A1HPV6, a Triage Blood Test for the Early Diagnosis and Prognosis of SARS-CoV-2 Infection.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Apolipoprotein A1 (A1) and haptoglobin (HP) serum levels are associated with the spread and severity of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. We have constructed and validated a multivariable risk calculator (A1HPV6) integrating A1, HP, alpha2-macroglobulin, and gamma glutamyl transferase to improve the performances of virological biomarkers. METHODS: In a prospective observational study of hospitalized patients with nonsevere SARS-CoV-2 infection, A1HPV6 was constructed in 127 patients and validated in 116. The specificity was assessed in 7482 controls representing the general population. The primary diagnostic endpoint was the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve in patients with positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR. The primary prognostic endpoint was the age-and sex-adjusted risk of A1HPV6 to predict patients with WHO-stage > 4 (W > 4) severity. We assessed the kinetics of the A1HPV6 components in a nonhuman primate model (NHP), from baseline to 7 days (D7) after SARS-CoV-2 infection. RESULTS: The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for A1HPV6 was 0.99 (95% CI 0.97-0.99) in the validation subset, which was not significantly different from that in the construction subset, 0.99 (0.99-0.99; P = .80), like for sensitivity 92% (85-96) vs 94% (88-97; P = .29). A1HPV6 was associated with W > 4, with a significant odds ratio of 1.3 (1.1-1.5; 0.002). In NHP, A1 levels decreased (P < .01) at D2 and normalized at D4; HP levels increased at D2 and peaked at D4. In patients, A1 concentration was very low at D2 vs controls (P < .01) and increased at D14 (P < .01) but was still lower than controls; HP increased at D2 and remained elevated at D14. CONCLUSION: These results validate the diagnostic and prognostic performances of A1HPV6. Similar kinetics of apolipoprotein A1, HP, and alpha-2-macroglobulin were observed in the NHP model. ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01927133.

Applicability and precautions of use of liver injury biomarker FibroTest. A reappraisal at 7 years of age.

BACKGROUND: FibroTest (FT) is a validated biomarker of fibrosis. To assess the applicability rate and to reduce the risk of false positives/negatives (RFPN), security algorithms were developed. The aims were to estimate the prevalence of RFPN and of proven failures, and to identify factors associated with their occurrences. METHODS: Four populations were studied: 954 blood donors (P1), 7,494 healthy volunteers (P2), 345,695 consecutive worldwide sera (P3), including 24,872 sera analyzed in a tertiary care centre (GHPS) (P4). Analytical procedures of laboratories with RFPN > 5% and charts of P4 patients in with RFPN were reviewed. RESULTS: The prevalence of RFPN was 0.52% (5/954; 95%CI 0.17-1.22) in P1, 0.51% (38/7494; 0.36-0.70) in P2, and 0.97% (3349/345695; 0.94-1.00) in P3. Three a priori high-risk populations were confirmed: 1.97% in P4, 1.77% in HIV centre and 2.61% in Sub-Saharan origin subjects. RFPN was mostly associated with low haptoglobin (0.46%), and high apolipoproteinA1 (0.21%). A traceability study of a P3 laboratory with RFPFN > 5% permitted to correct analytical procedures. CONCLUSION: The mean applicability rate of Fibrotest was 99.03%. Independent factors associated with the high risk of false positives/negatives were HIV center, subSaharan origin, and a tertiary care reference centre, although the applicability rate remained above 97%.

External validation of LCR1-LCR2, a multivariable HCC risk calculator, in patients with chronic HCV.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The Liver Cancer Risk test algorithm (LCR1-LCR2) is a multianalyte blood test combining proteins involved in liver cell repair (apolipoprotein-A1 and haptoglobin), known hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk factors (sex, age, and gamma-glutamyl transferase), a marker of fibrosis (alpha2-macroglobulin) and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), a specific marker of HCC. The aim was to externally validate the LCR1-LCR2 in patients with chronic HCV (CHC) treated or not with antivirals. METHODS: Pre-included patients were from the Hepather cohort, a multicentre prospective study in adult patients with CHC in France. LCR1-LCR2 was assessed retrospectively in patients with the test components and AFP, available at baseline. The co-primary study outcome was the negative predictive value (NPV) of LCR1-LCR2 for the occurrence of HCC at 5 years and for survival without HCC according to the predetermined LCR1-LCR2 cut-offs. The cut-offs were adjusted for risk covariables and for the response to HCV treatment, and were quantified using time-dependent proportional hazards models. RESULTS: In total, 4,903 patients, 1,026 (21.9%) with baseline cirrhosis, were included in the study. Patients were followed for a median of 5.7 (IQR 4.2-11.3) years. A total of 3,788/4,903 (77.3%) patients had a sustained virological response. There were 137 cases of HCC at 5 years and 214 at the end of follow-up. HCC occurred at 5 years in 24/3,755 patients with low-risk LCR1-LCR2 compared with 113/1,148 patients with high-risk LCR1-LCR2. The NPV was 99.4% (95% CI 99.1-99.6). Similar findings (hazard ratio, 10.8; 95% CI, 8.1-14.3; p <0.001) were obtained after adjustment for exposure to antivirals, age, sex, geographical origin, HCV genotype 3, alcohol consumption, and type 2 diabetes mellitus. CONCLUSIONS: The results showed that LCR1-LCR2 can be used to successfully identify patients with HCV at very low risk of HCC at 5 years. LAY SUMMARY: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the fourth leading cause of cancer-related death worldwide and the fastest growing cause of cancer death in many countries. We constructed and internally validated a new multianalyte blood test to assess this Liver Cancer Risk (LCR1-LCR2). This study confirmed the performance of LCR1-LCR2 in patients with chronic HCV in the national French cohort Hepather, and its ability to identify patients at a very low risk of HCC at 5 years. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: The study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT01953458).

Prospective external validation of a new non-invasive test for the diagnosis of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis in patients with type 2 diabetes.

BACKGROUND: One of the unmet needs in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is the prediction of non-alcoholic liver disease by non-invasive blood tests, for each of the three main histological features, fibrosis, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and steatosis. AIMS: To validate externally the performances of a recent panel, Nash-FibroTest, for the assessment of the severity of fibrosis stages, NASH grades and steatosis grades. METHODS: We prospectively analysed 272 patients with T2DM. Standard definitions of stages and grades were used, and analyses were centralised and blinded. The performances of the FibroTest, NashTest-2 and SteatoTest-2 were assessed using the Obuchowski measure (OM), the main outcome recommended as a summary measure of accuracy includeing all pairwise stages and grades comparisons, which is not provided par the extensively used binary area under the ROC curve. RESULTS: The diagnostic performance of each component of the panel was significant. OM (SE; significance) of the FibroTest, the NashTest-2 and the SteatoTest-2 was 0.862 (0.012; P < 0.001), 0.827 (0.015; P < 0.001) and 0.794 (0.020; P < 0.01), respectively. For ballooning and lobular inflammation, OM was 0.794 (0.021; P < 0.001) and 0.821 (0.017; P < 0.001), respectively. In a post hoc analysis the FibroTest outperformed VCTE by 4.1% (2.5-6.5; P < 0.001) for reliability, with a non-significant difference for OM for fibrosis staging, 0.859 (0.012) for FibroTest vs 0.870 (0.009) for VCTE. CONCLUSIONS: From a single blood sample, the panel provides non-invasive diagnosis of the stages of fibrosis, and the grades of NASH and steatosis in patients with T2DM. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT03634098.

Performance of liver biomarkers, in patients at risk of nonalcoholic steato-hepatitis, according to presence of type-2 diabetes.

OBJECTIVE: There is a controversy about the performance of blood tests for the diagnostic of metabolic liver disease in patients with type-2-diabetes in comparison with patients without type-2-diabetes. These indirect comparisons assumed that the gold-standard is binary, whereas fibrosis stages, steatosis and nonalcoholic-steato-hepatitis (NASH) grades use an ordinal scale. The primary aim was to compare the diagnostic performances of FibroTest in type-2-diabetes vs. controls matched on gender, age, fibrosis stages and obesity, and taking into account the spectrum effect by Obuchowski measure. METHODS: Data were retrospectively compared among patients prospectively included, with simultaneous biopsy and blindly assessed FibroTest, SteatoTest-2 and NashTest-2. The secondary aim was to construct an index (SpectrumF3F4-Index) to predict an adjusted-area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) for F3F4 diagnosis from the prevalences of fibrosis stages, permitting to reduce the spectrum effect when performances of FibroTest, transient elastography and magnetic resonance elastography are indirectly compared. RESULTS: In 505 patients at risk of NASH, the Obuchowski measures [95% confidence interval (CI)] of FibroTest, SteatoTest-2 and NashTest-2 were all equivalent in 136 type-2-diabetes cases vs. 369 matched controls: 0.871 (0.837-0.905), vs. 0.880 (0.879-0.881), 0.835 (0.797-0.873) vs. 0.806 (0.780-0.832) and 0.829 (0.793-0.865) vs. 0.855 (0.829-0.869), respectively. Standard-AUROCs (95% CI) were 0.932 (0.898-0.965), 0.872 (0.837-0.907) and 0.834 (0.699-0.969) and reduced after adjustment by SpectrumF3F4-Index to 0.794 (0.749-0.838), 0.767 (0.750-0.783) and 0.773 (0.725-0.822) for transient, magnetic resonance elastography and FibroTest, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: When compared by Obuchowski measures, the performances of tests were not different in patients with T2-diabetes vs. patients without T2-diabetes. When individual data are not available, adjusted-AUROCs reduced the spectrum effect.

Performance of serum apolipoprotein-A1 as a sentinel of Covid-19.

BACKGROUND: Since 1920, a decrease in serum cholesterol has been identified as a marker of severe pneumonia. We have assessed the performance of serum apolipoprotein-A1, the main transporter of HDL-cholesterol, to identify the early spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) in the general population and its diagnostic performance for the Covid-19. METHODS: We compared the daily mean serum apolipoprotein-A1 during the first 34 weeks of 2020 in a population that is routinely followed for a risk of liver fibrosis risk in the USA (212,297 serum) and in France (20,652 serum) in relation to a local increase in confirmed cases, and in comparison to the same period in 2019 (266,976 and 28,452 serum, respectively). We prospectively assessed the sensitivity of this marker in an observational study of 136 consecutive hospitalized cases and retrospectively evaluated its specificity in 7,481 controls representing the general population. RESULTS: The mean serum apolipoprotein-A1 levels in the survey populations began decreasing in January 2020, compared to the same period in 2019. This decrease was highly correlated with the daily increase in confirmed Covid-19 cases in the following 34 weeks, both in France and USA, including the June and mid-July recovery periods in France. Apolipoprotein-A1 at the 1.25 g/L cutoff had a sensitivity of 90.6% (95%CI84.2-95.1) and a specificity of 96.1% (95.7-96.6%) for the diagnosis of Covid-19. The area under the characteristics curve was 0.978 (0.957-0.988), and outperformed haptoglobin and liver function tests. The adjusted risk ratio of apolipoprotein-A1 for survival without transfer to intensive care unit was 5.61 (95%CI 1.02-31.0; P = 0.04). CONCLUSION: Apolipoprotein-A1 could be a sentinel of the pandemic in existing routine surveillance of the general population. NCT01927133, CER-2020-14.

The diagnostic performance of a simplified blood test (SteatoTest-2) for the prediction of liver steatosis.

BACKGROUND: Serum biomarkers of steatosis such as the SteatoTest are recommended for large-scale screening studies, because imaging is less accessible and more expensive. AIMS: The primary aim of this retrospective analysis of prospective studies was to construct a new SteatoTest-2 that was not inferior to the reference first-generation SteatoTest, but that did not include BMI or bilirubin, as these two components can increase test variability because of the assessment of weight and height and in case of Gilbert syndrome or hemolysis, respectively. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Five different subsets of 2997 patients with biopsies were evaluated for test construction and validation, and four to assess the prevalence of steatosis in target populations with increasing risks of steatosis. The performance of the SteatoTest-2 was compared with the reference test, using the noninferiority test (0.10 margin) and the Lin concordance coefficient. RESULTS: Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the SteatoTest-2 were noninferior to the reference test (P<0.001). Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve varied in the SteatoTest-2 and the reference test according to subsets and the prevalence of steatosis, with 0.772 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.713-0.820] versus 0.786 (95% CI: 0.729-0.832) in the 2997 cases with biopsy and 0.822 (95% CI: 0.810-0.834) versus 0.868 (95% CI: 0.858-0.878) in the 5776 cases including healthy individuals without risk factors of steatosis as controls, respectively. The Lin coefficient was highly concordant (P<0.001), from 0.74 (95% CI: 0.74-0.74) in presumed NAFLD to 0.91 (95% CI: 0.89-0.93) in the construction subset. CONCLUSION: The SteatoTest-2 is simpler and noninferior to the first-generation SteatoTest for the diagnosis of steatosis, without the limitations of BMI and bilirubin.

LCR1 and LCR2, two multi-analyte blood tests to assess liver cancer risk in patients without or with cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND: No blood test has been shown to be effective in the prediction of primary liver cancer in patients without cirrhosis. AIM: To construct and internally validate two sequential tests for early prediction of liver cancer. These tests enable an algorithm which could improve the performance of the standard surveillance protocol recommended (imaging with or without AFP), limited to patients with cirrhosis. METHODS: We performed a retrospective analysis in prospectively collected specimens from an ongoing cohort. We designed an early sensitive high-risk test (LCR1) that combined (using Cox model) hepatoprotective proteins (apolipoproteinA1, haptoglobin) with known risk factors (gender, age, gammaglutamyltranspeptidase), and a marker of fibrosis (alpha2-macroglobulin). To increase the specificity, we then combined (LCR2) these components with alpha-fetoprotein. RESULTS: A total of 9892 patients, 85.9% without cirrhosis, were followed up for 5.9 years [IQR: 4.3-9.4]. LCR1 and LCR2 time-dependent AUROCs were not different in construction and validation randomised subsets. Among 2027 patients with high-LCR1 then high-LCR2, 167 cancers (113 with cirrhosis, 54 without cirrhosis) were detected, that is 12 patients needed to screen one cancer. The negative predictive value was 99.5% (95% CI 99.0-99.7) in the 2026 not screened patients (11 cancers without cirrhosis) higher than the standard surveillance, which detected 113 cancers in 755 patients screened, that is seven patients needed to screen one cancer, but with a lower negative predictive value 98.0% (97.5-98.5; Z = 4.3; P < 0.001) in 3298 not screened patients (42 cancers without cirrhosis). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with chronic liver disease the LCR1 and LCR2 tests identify those with a high risk of liver cancer, including in those without cirrhosis. NCT01927133.

Impact of steatosis and inflammation definitions on the performance of NASH tests.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: One of the unmet needs in subjects with metabolic risks is the prediction of metabolic liver disease by noninvasive tests. The construction of performant tests is dependent on the appropriateness of the histological reference definition. The aim of this study was to analyze the limitations of similar European (Fatty Liver Inhibition of Progression) and USA (Clinical-Research-Network) standard definitions and their impact on the construction of tests. METHODS: We hypothesized that a simpler histological definition of non-alcoholo steato-hepatitis (NASH), which does not require the presence of steatosis and the presence of both lobular inflammation and ballooning, should improve the concordance rates with previously validated blood tests. We reviewed the landmark studies in metabolic liver disease, sources of the standard definitions, and we compared the adequacy of these standards to other possible definitions in 1081 subjects with biopsies, by concordance and accuracy rates. RESULTS: The limitations of standard definitions included the presence of appropriate controls in only 6.6% of landmark studies, an arbitrary definition of steatosis and NASH covering only four (15%) out of 27 possible combinations of features, compared with 18 (67%) for a simplified NASH definition, which did not require steatosis. A total of 39/1081 (3.6%) cases were not identified by standard definition, but were identified by the simplified definition as significant active disease, including 15 cases with significant fibrosis. The simplified definition increased the κ concordance (P<0.0001) between test prediction and histological reference. CONCLUSION: A simplified definition of NASH could help in the construction of biomarkers with higher performances.

Diagnostic performance of a new noninvasive test for nonalcoholic steatohepatitis using a simplified histological reference.

BACKGROUND: One of the unmet needs in patients with metabolic risks is the prediction of metabolic liver disease (MLD) by noninvasive tests (NITs). OBJECTIVE: The primary aim of this study was to construct a new quantitative test for the diagnosis of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) using a simplified histological definition. PATIENTS AND METHODS: As a reference, we used a simplified histological definition of NASH derived from the FLIP-CRN-definition that does not require the presence of steatosis and the presence of both lobular inflammation and ballooning. We analyzed 1081 patients from two prospective cohorts at risk of MLD who had biopsies and contemporaneous blood samples. These patients were divided randomly into a training group (n=541) and a control group (n=540) for internal validation. The new test was compared with standard tests, and applied in two large populations at risk of MLD. RESULTS: Out of 1081 patients with biopsy, 39 (3.6%) cases with significant inflammatory activity or fibrosis (A2orF2) were missed by the current histological definitions. The combination of 11 parameters permitted to construct a test (NIT-NASHs) predicting NASH with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.773 (95% confidence interval: 0.730-0.810), confirmed in the control group 0.814 (0.774-0.847). The AUROCs of NIT-NASHs were higher (all P<0.001) than those of ActiTest, FIB4, BARD, and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease scores. A combination of NIT-NASHs with FibroTest (AUROC=0.800; 0.759-0.835) enabled a better prediction (P<0.0001) of significant MLD, A2orF2, than the ActiTest-FibroTest combination. CONCLUSION: These results suggested that this new test enables a quantitative assessment of NASH, and when associated with the FibroTest, identifies cases with clinically significant MLD. An external validation is needed.

Long-term prognostic value of the FibroTest in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, compared to chronic hepatitis C, B, and alcoholic liver disease.

BACKGROUND: Although the FibroTest has been validated as a biomarker to determine the stage of fibrosis in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) with results similar to those in chronic hepatitis C (CHC), B (CHB), and alcoholic liver disease (ALD), it has not yet been confirmed for the prediction of liver-related death. AIM: To validate the 10-year prognostic value of FibroTest in NAFLD for the prediction of liver-related death. METHOD: Patients in the prospective FibroFrance cohort who underwent a FibroTest between 1997 and 2012 were pre-included. Mortality status was obtained from physicians, hospitals or the national register. Survival analyses were based on univariate (Kaplan-Meier, log rank, AUROC) and multivariate Cox risk ratio taking into account age, sex and response to anti-viral treatment as covariates. The comparator was the performance of the FibroTest in CHC, the most validated population. RESULTS: 7082 patients were included; 1079, 3449, 2051, and 503 with NAFLD, CHC, CHB, and ALD, respectively. Median (range) follow-up was 6.0 years (0.1-19.3). Ten year survival (95% CI) without liver-related death in patients with NAFLD was 0.956 (0.940-0.971; 38 events) and 0.832 (0.818-0.847; 226 events; P = 0.004) in CHC. The prognostic value (AUROC / Cox risk ratio) of FibroTest in patients with NAFLD was 0.941 (0.905-0.978)/1638 (342-7839) and even higher than in patients with CHC 0.875 (0.849-0.901; P = 0.01)/2657 (993-6586). CONCLUSIONS: The FibroTest has a high prognostic value in NAFLD for the prediction of liver-related death. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01927133).

Real-Time Shear Wave versus Transient Elastography for Predicting Fibrosis: Applicability, and Impact of Inflammation and Steatosis. A Non-Invasive Comparison.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Real-time shear wave elastography (2D-SWE) is a two-dimensional transient elastography and a competitor as a biomarker of liver fibrosis in comparison with the standard reference transient elastography by M probe (TE-M). The aims were to compare several criteria of applicability, and to assess inflammation and steatosis impact on elasticity values, two unmet needs. METHODS: We took FibroTest as the fibrosis reference and ActiTest and SteatoTest as quantitative estimates of inflammation and steatosis. After standardization of estimates, analyses used curve fitting, quantitative Lin concordance coefficient [LCC], and multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS: A total of 2,251 consecutive patients were included. We validated the predetermined 0.2 kPa cut-off as a too low minimal elasticity value identifying not-reliable 2D-SWE results (LCC with FibroTest = 0.0281[-0.119;0.175]. Other criteria, elasticity CV, body mass index and depth of measures were not sufficiently discriminant. The applicability of 2D-SWE (95%CI) 89.6%(88.2-90.8), was significantly higher than that of TE, 85.6%(84.0-87.0; P<0.0001). In patients with non-advanced fibrosis (METAVIR F0F1F2), elasticity values estimated by 2D-SWE was less impacted by inflammation and steatosis than elasticity value estimated by TE-M: LCC (95%CI) 0.039 (0.021;0.058) vs 0.090 (0.068;0.112;P<0.01) and 0.105 (0.068;0.141) vs 0.192 (0.153;0.230; P<0.01) respectively. The three analyses methods gave similar results. CONCLUSIONS: Elasticity results including very low minimal signal in the region of interest should be considered not reliable. 2D-SWE had a higher applicability than TE, the reference elastography, with less impact of inflammation and steatosis especially in patients with non-advanced fibrosis, as presumed by blood tests. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01927133.