Vaginal birth after a caesarean section: the development of a Western European population-based prediction model for deliveries at term.

OBJECTIVE: To develop and internally validate a model that predicts the outcome of an intended vaginal birth after caesarean (VBAC) for a Western European population that can be used to personalise counselling for deliveries at term. DESIGN: Registration-based retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Five university teaching hospitals, seven non-university teaching hospitals, and five non-university non-teaching hospitals in the Netherlands. POPULATION: A cohort of 515 women with a history of one caesarean section and a viable singleton pregnancy, without a contraindication for intended VBAC, who delivered at term. METHODS: Potential predictors for a vaginal delivery after caesarean section were chosen based on literature and expert opinions. We internally validated the prediction model using bootstrapping techniques. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Predictors for VBAC. For model validation, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for discriminative capacity and calibration-per-risk-quantile for accuracy were calculated. RESULTS: A total of 371 out of 515 women had a VBAC (72%). Variables included in the model were: estimated fetal weight greater than the 90(th) percentile in the third trimester; previous non-progressive labour; previous vaginal delivery; induction of labour; pre-pregnancy body mass index; and ethnicity. The AUC was 71% (95% confidence interval, 95% CI = 69-73%), indicating a good discriminative ability. The calibration plot shows that the predicted probabilities are well calibrated, especially from 65% up, which accounts for 77% of the total study population. CONCLUSION: We developed an appropriate Western European population-based prediction model that is aimed to personalise counselling for term deliveries.

Predicting successful intended vaginal delivery after previous caesarean section: external validation of two predictive models in a Dutch nationwide registration-based cohort with a high intended vaginal delivery rate.

OBJECTIVE: To externally validate two models from the USA (entry-to-care [ETC] and close-to-delivery [CTD]) that predict successful intended vaginal birth after caesarean (VBAC) for the Dutch population. DESIGN: A nationwide registration-based cohort study. SETTING: Seventeen hospitals in the Netherlands. POPULATION: Seven hundred and sixty-three pregnant women, each with one previous caesarean section and a viable singleton cephalic pregnancy without a contraindication for an intended VBAC. METHODS: The ETC model comprises the variables maternal age, prepregnancy body mass index (BMI), ethnicity, previous vaginal delivery, previous VBAC and previous nonprogressive labour. The CTD model replaces prepregnancy BMI with third-trimester BMI and adds estimated gestational age at delivery, hypertensive disease of pregnancy, cervical examination and induction of labour. We included consecutive medical records of eligible women who delivered in 2010. For validation, individual probabilities of women who had an intended VBAC were calculated. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Discriminative performance was assessed with the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic and predictive performance was assessed with calibration plots and the Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) statistic. RESULTS: Five hundred and fifteen (67%) of the 763 women had an intended VBAC; 72% of these (371) had an actual VBAC. The AUCs of the ETC and CTD models were 68% (95% CI 63-72%) and 72% (95% CI 67-76%), respectively. The H-L statistic showed a P-value of 0.167 for the ETC model and P = 0.356 for the CTD model, indicating no lack of fit. CONCLUSION: External validation of two predictive models developed in the USA revealed an adequate performance within the Dutch population.

Economic analysis of use of pessary to prevent preterm birth in women with multiple pregnancy (ProTWIN trial).

OBJECTIVE: To assess the cost-effectiveness of a cervical pessary to prevent preterm delivery in women with a multiple pregnancy. METHODS: The study design comprised an economic analysis of data from a randomized clinical trial evaluating cervical pessaries (ProTWIN). Women with a multiple pregnancy were included and an economic evaluation was performed from a societal perspective. Costs were estimated between the time of randomization and 6 weeks postpartum. The prespecified subgroup of women with a cervical length (CL) < 25(th) centile (< 38 mm) was analyzed separately. The primary endpoint was poor perinatal outcome occurring up to 6 weeks postpartum. Direct medical costs and health outcomes were estimated and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for costs to prevent one poor outcome were calculated. RESULTS: Mean costs in the pessary group (n = 401) were € 21,783 vs € 21,877 in the group in which no pessary was used (n = 407) (difference, -€ 94; 95% CI, -€ 5975 to € 5609). In the prespecified subgroup of women with a CL < 38 mm we demonstrated a significant reduction in poor perinatal outcome (12% vs 29%; RR, 0.40; 95% CI, 0.19-0.83). Mean costs in the pessary group (n = 78) were € 25,141 vs € 30,577 in the no-pessary group (n = 55) (difference, -€ 5436 (95% CI, -€ 11,001 to € 1456). In women with a CL < 38 mm, pessary treatment was the dominant strategy (more effective and less costly) with a probability of 94%. CONCLUSION: Cervical pessaries in women with a multiple pregnancy involve costs comparable to those in women without pessary treatment. However, in women with a CL < 38 mm, treatment with a cervical pessary appears to be highly cost-effective.

Fetal/neonatal allo-immune thrombocytopenia (FNAIT): past, present, and future.

UNLABELLED: We reviewed the English, American, and German literature for articles describing the prevalence, clinical presentation, outcome, therapeutic options, and screening possibilities for fetal/neonatal allo-immune thrombocytopenia (FNAIT), published between January 1950 and March 2007. The reported prevalence of FNAIT in human platelet antigen (HPA)-1a-negative women varies between 1/600 to 1/5000 live births among various populations. The typical picture is that of a neonate presenting with purpura minutes to hours after birth, born to a healthy mother with no history of infection or abnormal bleeding, after an uneventful pregnancy with a normal maternal platelet count. Thrombocytopenia in FNAIT can be severe, with intracranial hemorrhage occurring in 10% to 30% of severe FNAIT cases. Several types of neonatal treatment have been proposed, of which transfusion of HPA-compatible platelets is most effective. Antenatal management of FNAIT consists of weekly maternal intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) infusions, with or without oral steroid therapy. Serial fetal platelet transfusions can be provided in cases of failure of IVIG therapy, but the multiple cordocenteses that would be required to administer the platelets entail substantial risk. The possibilities for antenatal screening of first pregnancies are limited. Postnatal screening does not prevent neonatal morbidity and mortality. TARGET AUDIENCE: Obstetricians & Gynecologists, Family Physicians. LEARNING OBJECTIVES: After completion of this article, the reader should be able to summarize the many and varied causes of neonatal thrombocytopenia, explain that fetal/neonatal allo-immune thrombocytopenia (FNAIT) is a rare but devastating cause with potential high risk of recurrence, and recall the treatment options for FNAIT as well as their potential side effects.

Induction versus expectant monitoring for intrauterine growth restriction at term: randomised equivalence trial (DIGITAT).

OBJECTIVE: To compare the effect of induction of labour with a policy of expectant monitoring for intrauterine growth restriction near term. DESIGN: Multicentre randomised equivalence trial (the Disproportionate Intrauterine Growth Intervention Trial At Term (DIGITAT)). SETTING: Eight academic and 44 non-academic hospitals in the Netherlands between November 2004 and November 2008. PARTICIPANTS: Pregnant women who had a singleton pregnancy beyond 36+0 weeks' gestation with suspected intrauterine growth restriction. INTERVENTIONS: Induction of labour or expectant monitoring. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was a composite measure of adverse neonatal outcome, defined as death before hospital discharge, five minute Apgar score of less than 7, umbilical artery pH of less than 7.05, or admission to the intensive care unit. Operative delivery (vaginal instrumental delivery or caesarean section) was a secondary outcome. Analysis was by intention to treat, with confidence intervals calculated for the differences in percentages or means. RESULTS: 321 pregnant women were randomly allocated to induction and 329 to expectant monitoring. Induction group infants were delivered 10 days earlier (mean difference -9.9 days, 95% CI -11.3 to -8.6) and weighed 130 g less (mean difference -130 g, 95% CI -188 g to -71 g) than babies in the expectant monitoring group. A total of 17 (5.3%) infants in the induction group experienced the composite adverse neonatal outcome, compared with 20 (6.1%) in the expectant monitoring group (difference -0.8%, 95% CI -4.3% to 3.2%). Caesarean sections were performed on 45 (14.0%) mothers in the induction group and 45 (13.7%) in the expectant monitoring group (difference 0.3%, 95% CI -5.0% to 5.6%). CONCLUSIONS: In women with suspected intrauterine growth restriction at term, we found no important differences in adverse outcomes between induction of labour and expectant monitoring. Patients who are keen on non-intervention can safely choose expectant management with intensive maternal and fetal monitoring; however, it is rational to choose induction to prevent possible neonatal morbidity and stillbirth. TRIAL REGISTRATION: International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial number ISRCTN10363217.