Herbivory and misidentification of target habitat constrain region-wide restoration success of spekboom (Portulacaria afra) in South African subtropical succulent thicket.

Restoration of degraded subtropical succulent thicket, via the planting of Portulacaria afra (spekboom) truncheons, is the focus of a public works programme funded by the South African government. The goals of the programme, which started in 2004, are to create jobs, sequester carbon, restore biodiversity, reduce erosion, improve soil water holding capacity and catalyse private sector investment for upscaling of restoration. Here we report on a region-wide experiment to identify factors that can improve project success. Measures of success were survivorship and annual aboveground biomass carbon sequestration (ABCsr) of spekboom truncheons some 33-57 months after planting-starting in March 2008-into 173 fenced plots (0.25 ha) located throughout the global extent of spekboom thicket vegetation. We also collected data for 18 explanatory variables under the control of managers, and an additional 39 variables reflecting soil physical and chemical characteristics and rainfall patterns post restoration, all beyond the influence of managers. Since the latter covariates were available for only 83 plots, we analysed the two data sets separately. We used a prediction rule ensemble to determine the most important predictors of restoration success. There was great variation in percentage survivorship (median = 24, range = 0-100%) and ABCsr (median = 0.009, range = 0-0.38 t C ha-1 yr-1). The model using management variables explained less variance (53%) in survivorship than the model incorporating additional soil and rainfall covariates (62%). ABCsr models were better fits (78 and 88% variance explained, respectively). All model configurations identified browse intensity as a highly influential predictor of restoration success. Predicted success was highest for plots located in target habitat; however, only 45% were thus located, suggesting the need for expert input and habitat modelling for improving target habitat identification. Frost exposure was another important predictor influencing all models but was likely a consequence of locating sites off target habitat. Sites planted on equatorward slopes during the warm season showed reduced carbon sequestration, possibly due to elevated soil moisture stress associated with high radiation loads. Physiographic factors associated with improved restoration success were location on sloping ground (reduced frost exposure), increasing longitude (more warm-season rainfall) and increasing latitude (less frost coastwards). Few trends were evident among post-restoration climatic factors beyond the control of managers. Higher rainfall during the year post restoration had a negative impact on carbon sequestration while higher rain during the early months post restoration had a positive effect on both carbon sequestration and survivorship. Soil factors showed little importance for the survivorship model, whereas silt content, % K and Mg CEC emerged as predictors of carbon sequestration. Our results have direct relevance for improving the success of landscape-scale restoration projects envisioned for the ca. 8,930 km2 of degraded spekboom thicket.

Mapping human and social dimensions of conservation opportunity for the scheduling of conservation action on private land.

Abstract Spatial prioritization techniques are applied in conservation-planning initiatives to allocate conservation resources. Although typically they are based on ecological data (e.g., species, habitats, ecological processes), increasingly they also include nonecological data, mostly on the vulnerability of valued features and economic costs of implementation. Nevertheless, the effectiveness of conservation actions implemented through conservation-planning initiatives is a function of the human and social dimensions of social-ecological systems, such as stakeholders' willingness and capacity to participate. We assessed human and social factors hypothesized to define opportunities for implementing effective conservation action by individual land managers (those responsible for making day-to-day decisions on land use) and mapped these to schedule implementation of a private land conservation program. We surveyed 48 land managers who owned 301 land parcels in the Makana Municipality of the Eastern Cape province in South Africa. Psychometric statistical and cluster analyses were applied to the interview data so as to map human and social factors of conservation opportunity across a landscape of regional conservation importance. Four groups of landowners were identified, in rank order, for a phased implementation process. Furthermore, using psychometric statistical techniques, we reduced the number of interview questions from 165 to 45, which is a preliminary step toward developing surrogates for human and social factors that can be developed rapidly and complemented with measures of conservation value, vulnerability, and economic cost to more-effectively schedule conservation actions. This work provides conservation and land management professionals direction on where and how implementation of local-scale conservation should be undertaken to ensure it is feasible.

Fire severity effects on resprouting of subtropical dune thicket of the Cape Floristic Region.

It has been hypothesised that high-intensity fires prevent fire-dependent fynbos from being replaced by fire-avoiding subtropical thicket on dune landscapes of the Cape Floristic Region (CFR). Recent extensive fires provided an opportunity to test this hypothesis. We posit that (1) fire-related thicket shrub mortality would be size dependent, with smaller individuals suffering higher mortality than larger ones; and (2) that survival and resprouting vigour of thicket shrubs would be negatively correlated with fire severity. We assessed survival and resprouting vigour post-fire in relation to fire severity and pre-fire shrub size at two dune landscapes in the CFR. Fire severity was scored at the base of the shrub and categorised into four levels. Pre-fire size was quantified as an index of lignotuber diameter and stem count of each shrub. Resprouting vigour consisted of two variables; resprouting shoot count and resprouting canopy volume. A total of 29 species were surveyed. Post-fire survival of thicket was high (83-85%). We found that smaller shrubs did have a lower probability of post-fire survival than larger individuals but could detect no consistent relationship between shrub mortality and fire severity. Fire severity had a positive effect on resprouting shoot count but a variable effect on resprouting volume. Pre-fire size was positively related to survival and both measures of resprouting vigour. We conclude that thicket is resilient to high-severity fires but may be vulnerable to frequent fires. Prescribed high-intensity fires in dune landscapes are unlikely to reduce the extent of thicket and promote fynbos expansion.

Vegetation responses to season of fire in an aseasonal, fire-prone fynbos shrubland.

Season of fire has marked effects on floristic composition in fire-prone Mediterranean-climate shrublands. In these winter-rainfall systems, summer-autumn fires lead to optimal recruitment of overstorey proteoid shrubs (non-sprouting, slow-maturing, serotinous Proteaceae) which are important to the conservation of floral diversity. We explored whether fire season has similar effects on early establishment of five proteoid species in the eastern coastal part of the Cape Floral Kingdom (South Africa) where rainfall occurs year-round and where weather conducive to fire and the actual incidence of fire are largely aseasonal. We surveyed recruitment success (ratio of post-fire recruits to pre-fire parents) of proteoids after fires in different seasons. We also planted proteoid seeds into exclosures, designed to prevent predation by small mammals and birds, in cleared (intended to simulate fire) fynbos shrublands at different sites in each of four seasons and monitored their germination and survival to one year post-planting (hereafter termed 'recruitment'). Factors (in decreasing order of importance) affecting recruitment success in the post-fire surveys were species, pre-fire parent density, post-fire age of the vegetation at the time of assessment, and fire season, whereas rainfall (for six months post-fire) and fire return interval (>7 years) had little effect. In the seed-planting experiment, germination occurred during the cooler months and mostly within two months of planting, except for summer-plantings, which took 2-3 months longer to germinate. Although recruitment success differed significantly among planting seasons, sites and species, significant interactions occurred among the experimental factors. In both the post-fire surveys and seed planting experiment, recruitment success in relation to fire- or planting season varied greatly within and among species and sites. Results of these two datasets were furthermore inconsistent, suggesting that proteoid recruitment responses are not related to the season of fire. Germination appeared less rainfall-dependent than in winter-rainfall shrublands, suggesting that summer drought-avoiding dormancy is limited and has less influence on variation in recruitment success among fire seasons. The varied response of proteoid recruitment to fire season (or its simulation) implies that burning does not have to be restricted to particular seasons in eastern coastal fynbos, affording more flexibility for fire management than in shrublands associated with winter rainfall.

Part II--the effect of data on waste behaviour: the South African waste information system.

Combining the process of learning and the theory of planned behaviour into a new theoretical framework provides an opportunity to explore the impact of data on waste behaviour, and consequently on waste management, in South Africa. Fitting the data to the theoretical framework shows that there are only three constructs which have a significant effect on behaviour, viz experience, knowledge, and perceived behavioural control (PBC). Knowledge has a significant influence on all three of the antecedents to behavioural intention (attitude, subjective norm and PBC). However, it is PBC, and not intention, that has the greatest influence on waste behaviour. While respondents may have an intention to act, this intention does not always manifest as actual waste behaviour, suggesting limited volitional control. The theoretical framework accounts for 53.7% of the variance in behaviour, suggesting significant external influences on behaviour not accounted for in the framework. While the theoretical model remains the same, respondents in public and private organisations represent two statistically significant sub-groups in the data set. The theoretical framework accounts for 47.8% of the variance in behaviour of respondents in public waste organisations and 57.6% of the variance in behaviour of respondents in private organisations. The results suggest that respondents in public and private waste organisations are subject to different structural forces that shape knowledge, intention, and resultant waste behaviour.

Part 1: The role of waste data in building knowledge: the South African waste information system.

An empirical study was undertaken with 31 organisations submitting data to the South African Waste Information System (SAWIS) in order to explore the relationship between data and resultant waste knowledge generated through a process of learning. The results show that of the three constructs of knowledge (experience, data/information, and theory), experience has the greatest influence on building waste knowledge, nearly twice that of data/information and three times that of theory. Together the three constructs account for 54.1% of the variance in knowledge. Respondents from municipalities and private waste organisations reflect two distinct sub-groups in the data set. While the theoretical model remains the same for the two sub-groups, the way in which knowledge is constructed, and the variance in knowledge explained by the model, differs for the two. A mixed methods research design, combining quantitative statistical analysis and rich qualitative data, contributes to a comprehensive interpretation of the role of waste data in building knowledge in South Africa. While waste data has a minor influence on building knowledge, respondents acknowledge that waste data does have a positive impact on the way their organisations manage waste. However, it is not the data, but rather the resultant waste knowledge and raised level of awareness that causes the operational response. Experience is obtained predominantly through learning from others. Respondents in municipalities, emphasised learning from consultants, landfill site contractors, and colleagues in city-twinning programmes, while respondents in private waste companies, emphasised learning from experienced, senior colleagues.