What is important for high quality rural health care? A qualitative study of rural community and provider views in Aotearoa New Zealand.

INTRODUCTION: While the general principles of healthcare quality are well articulated internationally, less has been written about applying these principles to rural contexts. Research exploring patient and provider views of healthcare quality in rural communities is limited. This study investigated what was important in healthcare quality particularly for hospital-level care for rural communities in Aotearoa New Zealand. METHODS: A pragmatic qualitative study was undertaken in four diverse rural communities with access to rural hospitals. Data were gathered through eight community and indigenous (Maori) focus groups (75 participants) and 34 health provider interviews, and analysed thematically. RESULTS: Two study sites had large Maori populations and high levels of socioeconomic deprivation, whereas the other two sites had much lower Maori populations and lower levels of socioeconomic deprivation, but further travel distances to urban facilities. Rural hospitals in the communities ranged from 12 to 80 beds and were both government and community trust owned. A theme of the principles of high quality rurally focused health services was developed. Nine principles were identified: (1) providing patient- and family-centred care that respected people's preferences for where treatment was provided; (2) providing services as close to home as could be done well; (3) quality was everybody's job; (4) consistent care across settings, with reduction on unwarranted variation; (5) team-based care across distance, with clear communication and processes between different facilities working together; (6) equitable health care particularly for Maori, and then for the whole rural community; (7) sustainable service models, particularly for workforce, as a counterbalance to 'closer to home'; (8) health networks to improve patient flow, and reduce waste; and (9) value was more than value for money, and including valuing respectful, timely care. Another theme around rural and urban healthcare quality was developed. While the nature of care was different in different settings, patient experience should be the underlying measure of quality, and quality measures needed to be interpreted in the context of local circumstances, with rural-specific quality measures where appropriate. CONCLUSION: The researchers developed principles of healthcare quality specific to rural communities regarding patient and family preferences for where care was received, a broader focus on value beyond value for money and a strong focus on equity for indigenous people. These principles add to the rural principles previously described. Patient experience should be the underlying focus of quality, while noting that the nature of health care provided in rural and urban settings is different. The present study's findings support the concept that quality measures should be interpreted in the context of local circumstances, with the development of rural-specific measures. The authors hope the findings, when locally contextualised, will assist health policy makers, planners, providers and community leaders as they strive to improve the quality of health services for their rural communities.

Waiting for a miracle or best medical practice? End-of-life medical ethical dilemmas in Bahrain.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: In Bahrain, maintaining life support at all costs is a cultural value considered to be embedded in the Islamic religion. We explore end-of-life decision making for brain dead patients in an Arab country where medical cultures are dominated by Western ideas and the lay culture is Eastern. METHODS: In-depth interviews were conducted from February to April 2018 with 12 Western-educated Bahraini doctors whose medical practice often included end-of-life decision making. Discussions were about who should make withdrawal of life support decisions, how decisions are made and the context for decision making. To develop results, we used the inductive method of thematic analysis. RESULTS: Informants considered it difficult to engage non-medical people in end-of-life decisions because of people's reluctance to talk about death and no legal clarity about medical responsibilities. There was disagreement about doctors' roles with some saying that end-of-life decisions were purely medical or purely religious but most maintaining that such decisions need to be collectively owned by medicine, patients, families, religious advisors and society. Informants practised in a legal vacuum that made their ethics interpretations and clinical decision making idiosyncratic regarding end-of-life care for brain dead patients. Participants referred to contrasts between their current practice and previous work in other countries, recognising the influences of religious and cultural dimensions on their practice in Bahrain. CONCLUSIONS: End-of-life decisions challenge Western-trained doctors in Bahrain as they grapple with aligning respect for local culture with their training in the ethical practice of Western medicine.

Impact of General Practitioner Transient Ischemic Attack Training on 90-Day Stroke Outcomes: Secondary Analysis of a Cluster Randomized Controlled Trial.

GOALS: Many patients with transient ischemic attack (TIA) receive initial assessments by general practitioners (GPs) who may lack TIA management experience. In a randomized controlled trial (RCT), we showed that electronic decision support for GPs improves patient outcomes and guideline adherence. Some stroke services prefer to improve referrer expertise through TIA/stroke education sessions instead of promoting TIA decision aids or triaging tools. This is a secondary analysis of whether a GP education session influenced TIA management and outcomes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Post hoc analysis of a multicenter, single blind, parallel group, cluster RCT comparing TIA/stroke electronic decision support guided GP management with usual care to assess whether a pretrial TIA/stroke education session also affected RCT outcomes. FINDINGS: Of 181 participating GPs, 79 (43.7%) attended an education session and 140 of 291 (48.1%) trial patients were managed by these GPs. There were fewer 90-day stroke events and 90-day vascular events or deaths in patients treated by GPs who attended education; 2 of 140 (1.4%) and 10 of 140 (7.1%) respectively, compared with those who did not; 5 of 151 (3.3%), and 14 of 151 (9.3%), respectively. Logistic regression for association between 90-day stroke and 90-day vascular events or death and education, however, was nonsignificant (odds ratio [OR] .42 (.08 to 2.22), P = .29 and .59 (95% confidence interval [CI] .27 to 1.29), P = .18 respectively. Guideline adherence was not improved by the education session: OR .84 (95% CI .49 to 1.45), P = .54. CONCLUSION: In the described setting, a GP TIA/stroke education session did not significantly enhance guideline adherence or reduce 90-day stroke or vascular events following TIA.

Variation in the pharmaceutical costs of New Zealand general practices: a national database linkage study.

BACKGROUND: Variation in prescription costs between general practices and within practices over time is poorly understood. METHODS: From New Zealand's national health data collections, we extracted dispensed medicines data for 1045 general practices in 2011 and 917 practices continuously existing 2008-11. Using indirect standardization to account for patient demographics and morbidity, a standardized prescribing cost ratio (SPR: the ratio of actual : expected prescription costs) was calculated for each practice in each year. Case studies of three outlier clinics explored reasons for their status. RESULTS: SPRs ranged from 0.53 to 2.28 (median = 0.98). Of 469 practices with higher than expected costs (SPR > 1.0) in 2011, 204 (43.5%) had a single medicine or therapeutic drug class accounting for >15% of total costs. Case studies contrasted practices with overall pharmaceutical expenditure influenced strongly by a few patients needing high-cost medicines, more patients using medicines in one high-cost therapeutic drug class (antiretrovirals), and high medicine use across all therapeutic drug classes. CONCLUSIONS: Routine data collections can measure inter-practice variation in prescription costs, adjusted for differences in the demography and morbidity profile of each practice's patients. Small groups of patients using high-cost medicines influence general practices' expenditure on pharmaceuticals.

After-hours on-call: the effect on paediatricians' spouses and families.

AIM: The after-hours or on-call component of a paediatrician's work has implications for their spouse and family. Little is known about the specifics and extent of this impact. We aimed to understand the potential positive and negative impacts of this important aspect of a paediatrician's work. METHODS: The spouses (nine female and one male) of 10 practising paediatricians, who are providing care in a variety of hospital settings within New Zealand, were interviewed using an open-questioning technique. Interviews were analysed by a qualitative line-by-line thematic method in order to categorise the perceived impact of their spouses' on-call work on themselves and their families. RESULTS: Participants reported multiple effects of after-hours on-call on themselves, their paediatrician partners and their families. Negative themes included sleep deprivation, restrictions on life-style and living location (specifically home proximity to hospital), spousal sacrifice, intimacy and communication challenges, and diminished quality time with children. Positive themes highlighted professional rewards, financial security and adaptability. Themes were consistent across age, length of relationship, spousal occupation and the presence of children. The intensity of these impacts for our participants appeared to vary depending on the degree of marital support and frequency of on-call. CONCLUSION: After-hours on-call has a generally negative impact on paediatricians' spouses and families.

Ethnic disparities in asthma treatment and outcomes in children aged under 15 years in New Zealand: analysis of national databases.

BACKGROUND: Mãori and Pacific children experience poorer outcomes relating to asthma management than other ethnicities. AIMS: To measure recommended treatment and outcomes for asthma in all New Zealand children by age, sex, and ethnic group. METHODS: Children aged <15 years dispensed >2 asthma medicines (N=80,514) were identified from the national pharmaceutical claims database. We measured the number of children dispensed oral steroids >2 times and hospital admissions with a primary diagnosis of asthma and compared asthma treatment steps and hospitalisation by age and ethnicity. RESULTS: 16.0% of children were dispensed asthma medicines, 9.2% were dispensed medicine >2 times, 3.6% of children were hospitalised at least once for asthma and 98.9% of admissions were acute. Mãori (OR 1.46, 95% CI 1.41 to 1.51) and Pacific children (OR 2.38, 95% CI 2.28 to 2.47) were more likely to remain on the lowest step of treatment. At all steps of treatment, Mãori and Pacific children had higher rates of oral steroid use. In all age groups, more Mãori children (5.1%, OR 1.88, 95% CI 1.73 to 2.04) and Pacific children (5.6%, OR 2.05, 95% CI 1.84 to 2.29) were hospitalised for asthma than children of other ethnicities (2.8%). CONCLUSIONS: Mãori and Pacific children are less likely to have their treatment escalated to a higher step than other children. They are also more likely to use oral steroids to control asthma exacerbations and be admitted to hospital for severe asthma episodes. New Zealand databases can be used to monitor these outcomes.

Do people living in rural and urban locations experience differences in harm when admitted to hospital? A cross-sectional New Zealand general practice records review study.

OBJECTIVE: Little is known about differences in hospital harm (injury, suffering, disability, disease or death arising from hospital care) when people from rural and urban locations require hospital care. This study aimed to assess whether hospital harm risk differed by patients' rural or urban location using general practice data. DESIGN: Secondary analysis of a 3-year retrospective cross-sectional general practice records review study, designed with equal numbers of rural and urban patients and patients from small, medium and large practices. Hospital admissions, interhospital transfer and hospital harm were identified. SETTING: New Zealand (NZ) general practice clinical records including hospital discharge data. PARTICIPANTS: Randomly selected patient records from randomly selected general practices across NZ. Patient enrolment at rural and urban general practices defined patient location. OUTCOMES: Admission and harm risk and rate ratios by rural-urban location were investigated using multivariable analyses adjusted for age, sex, ethnicity, deprivation, practice size. Preventable hospital harm, harm severity and harm associated with interhospital transfer were analysed. RESULTS: Of 9076 patient records, 1561 patients (17%) experienced hospital admissions with no significant association between patient location and hospital admission (rural vs urban adjusted risk ratio (aRR) 0.98 (95% CI 0.83 to 1.17)). Of patients admitted to hospital, 172 (11%) experienced hospital harm. Rural location was not associated with increased hospital harm risk (aRR 1.01 (95% CI 0.97 to 1.05)) or rate of hospital harm per admission (adjusted incidence rate ratio 1.09 (95% CI 0.83 to 1.43)). Nearly half (45%) of hospital harms became apparent only after discharge. No urban patients required interhospital transfer, but 3% of rural patients did. Interhospital transfer was associated with over twice the risk of hospital harm (age-adjusted aRR 2.33 (95% CI 1.37 to 3.98), p=0.003). CONCLUSIONS: Rural patient location was not associated with increased hospital harm. This provides reassurance for rural communities and health planners. The exception was patients needing interhospital transfer, where risk was more than doubled, warranting further research.

Epidemiology of healthcare harm in New Zealand general practice: a retrospective records review study.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the epidemiology of healthcare harm observable in general practice records. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort records review study. SETTING: 72 general practice clinics were randomly selected from all 988 New Zealand clinics stratified by rurality and size; 44 clinics consented to participate. PARTICIPANTS: 9076 patient records were randomly selected from participating clinics. INTERVENTION: Eight general practitioners examined patient records (2011-2013) to identify harms, harm severity and preventability. Analyses were weighted to account for the stratified sampling design and generalise findings to all New Zealand patients. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Healthcare harm, severity and preventability. RESULTS: Reviewers identified 2972 harms affecting 1505 patients aged 0-102 years. Most patients (82.0%, weighted) experienced no harm. The estimated incidence of harm was 123 per 1000 patient-years. Most harms (2160; 72.7%, 72.4% weighted) were minor, 661 (22.2%, 22.8% weighted) were moderate, and 135 (4.5%, 4.4% weighted) severe. Eleven patients died, five following a preventable harm. Of the non-fatal harms, 2411 (81.6%, 79.4% weighted) were considered not preventable. Increasing age and number of consultations were associated with increased odds of harm. Compared with patients aged ≤49 years, patients aged 50-69 had an OR of 1.77 (95% CI 1.61 to 1.94), ≥70 years OR 3.23 (95% CI 2.37 to 4.41). Compared with patients with ≤3 consultations, patients with 4-12 consultations had an OR of 7.14 (95% CI 5.21 to 9.79); ≥13 consultations OR 30.06 (95% CI 21.70 to 41.63). CONCLUSIONS: Strategic balancing of healthcare risks and benefits may improve patient safety but will not necessarily eliminate harms, which often arise from standard care. Reducing harms considered 'not preventable' remains a laudable challenge.

Medication-related harm in New Zealand general practice: a retrospective records review.

BACKGROUND: The extent of medication-related harm in general practice is unknown. AIM: To identify and describe all medication-related harm in electronic general practice records. The secondary aim was to investigate factors potentially associated with medication-related harm. DESIGN AND SETTING: Retrospective cohort records review study in 44 randomly selected New Zealand general practices for the 3 years 2011-2013. METHOD: Eight GPs reviewed 9076 randomly selected patient records. Medication-related harms were identified when the causal agent was prescribed in general practice. Harms were coded by type, preventability, and severity. The number and proportion of patients who experienced medication-related harm was calculated. Weighted logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with harm. RESULTS: In total, 976 of 9076 patients (10.8%) experienced 1762 medication-related harms over 3 years. After weighting, the incidence rate of all medication-related harms was 73.9 harms per 1000 patient-years, and the incidence of preventable, or potentially preventable, medication-related harms was 15.6 per 1000 patient-years. Most harms were minor (n = 1385/1762, 78.6%), but around one in five harms were moderate or severe (n = 373/1762, 21.2%); three patients died. Eighteen study patients were hospitalised; after weighting this correlates to a hospitalisation rate of 1.1 per 1000 patient-years. Increased age, number of consultations, and number of medications were associated with increased risk of medication-related harm. Cardiovascular medications, antineoplastic and immunomodulatory agents, and anticoagulants caused most harm by frequency and severity. CONCLUSION: Medication-related harm in general practice is common. This study adds to the evidence about the risk posed by medication in the real world. Findings can be used to inform decision making in general practice.

Good care close to home: local health professional perspectives on how a rural hospital can contribute to the healthcare of its community.

AIM: Hokianga Health in New Zealand's far north is an established health service with a small rural hospital, serving a largely Maori community. The aim of this study was to gain insights into the wider roles of one rural hospital from the perspective of its staff. METHOD: Eleven face-to-face semi-structured interviews were conducted with employees of Hokianga Health, eight with past and current medical practitioners, three with senior non-medical staff. Interviews were recorded and transcribed. Thematic analysis of the interviews was undertaken using the Framework Method. RESULTS: Four main themes were identified: 'Our Context', emphasising geographical isolation; 'Continuity of Care', illustrating the role of the hospital across the primary-secondary interface; 'Navigation' of health services within and beyond Hokianga; and the concept of hospital as 'Home'. CONCLUSION: Findings highlight the importance of geographically appropriate, as well as culturally appropriate, health services. A hospital as part of a rural health service can enhance comprehensive and continuous care for a rural community. Study findings suggest rural hospitals should be viewed and valued as their own distinct entity rather than small-scale versions of larger urban hospitals.

Advancing bibliometric assessment of research productivity: an analysis of US Departments of Family Medicine.

INTRODUCTION Measurement of family medicine research productivity has lacked the replicable methodology needed to document progress. AIM In this study, we compared three methods: (1) faculty-to-publications; (2) publications-to-faculty; and (3) department-reported publications. METHODS In this cross-sectional analysis, publications in peer-reviewed, indexed journals for faculty in 13 US family medicine departments in 2015 were assessed. In the faculty-to-publications method, department websites to identify faculty and Web of Science to identify publications were used. For the publications-to-faculty method, PubMed's author affiliation field were used to identify publications, which were linked to faculty members. In the department-reported method, chairs provided lists of faculty and their publications. For each method, descriptive statistics to compare faculty and publication counts were calculated. RESULTS Overall, 750 faculty members with 1052 unique publications, using all three methods combined as the reference standard, were identified. The department-reported method revealed 878 publications (84%), compared to 616 (59%) for the faculty-to-publications method and 412 (39%) for the publication-to-faculty method. Across all departments, 32% of faculty had any publications, and the mean number of publications per faculty was 1.4 (mean of 4.4 per faculty among those who had published). Assistant Professors, Associate Professors, Professors and Chairs accounted for 92% of all publications. DISCUSSION Online searches capture a fraction of publications, but also capture publications missed through self-report. The ideal methodology includes all three. Tracking publications is important for quantifying the return on our discipline's research investment.

Patient error: a preliminary taxonomy.

PURPOSE: Current research on errors in health care focuses almost exclusively on system and clinician error. It tends to exclude how patients may create errors that influence their health. We aimed to identify the types of errors that patients can contribute and help manage, especially in primary care. METHODS: Eleven nominal group interviews of patients and primary health care professionals were held in Auckland, New Zealand, during late 2007. Group members reported and helped to classify types of potential error by patients. We synthesized the ideas that emerged from the nominal groups into a taxonomy of patient error. RESULTS: Our taxonomy is a 3-level system encompassing 70 potential types of patient error. The first level classifies 8 categories of error into 2 main groups: action errors and mental errors. The action errors, which result in part or whole from patient behavior, are attendance errors, assertion errors, and adherence errors. The mental errors, which are errors in patient thought processes, comprise memory errors, mindfulness errors, misjudgments, and-more distally-knowledge deficits and attitudes not conducive to health. CONCLUSION: The taxonomy is an early attempt to understand and recognize how patients may err and what clinicians should aim to influence so they can help patients act safely. This approach begins to balance perspectives on error but requires further research. There is a need to move beyond seeing patient, clinician, and system errors as separate categories of error. An important next step may be research that attempts to understand how patients, clinicians, and systems interact to cocreate and reduce errors.

Research using electronic health records: Balancing confidentiality and public good.

General practitioners are increasingly approached to participate in research and share de-identified patient information. Research using electronic health records has considerable potential for improving the quality and safety of patient care. Obtaining individual patient consent for the use of the information is usually not feasible. In this article we explore the ethical issues in using personal health information in research without patient consent including the threat to confidentially and the doctor-patient relationship, and we discuss how the risks can be minimised and managed drawing on our experience as general practitioners and researchers.

Characteristics of a stratified random sample of New Zealand general practices.

INTRODUCTION Practice size and location may affect the quality and safety of health care. Little is known about contemporary New Zealand general practice characteristics in terms of staffing, ownership and services. AIM To describe and compare the characteristics of small, medium and large general practices in rural and urban New Zealand. METHODS Seventy-two general practices were randomly selected from the 2014 Primary Health Organisation database and invited to participate in a records review study. Forty-five recruited practices located throughout New Zealand provided data on staff, health-care services and practice ownership. Chi-square and other non-parametric statistical analyses were used to compare practices. RESULTS The 45 study practices constituted 4.6% of New Zealand practices. Rural practices were located further from the nearest regional base hospital (rural median 65.0 km, urban 7.5 km (P < 0.001)), nearest local hospital (rural 25.7 km, urban 7.0 km (P = 0.002)) and nearest neighbouring general practitioner (GP) (rural 16.0 km, urban 1.0 km (P = 0.007)). In large practices, there were more enrolled patients per GP FTE than both medium-sized and small practices (mean 1827 compared to 1457 and 1120 respectively, P = 0.019). Nurses in large practices were more likely to insert intravenous lines (P = 0.026) and take blood (P = 0.049). There were no significant differences in practice ownership arrangements according to practice size or rurality. CONCLUSION Study practices were relatively homogenous. Unsurprisingly, rural practices were further away from hospitals. Larger practices had higher patient-to-doctor ratios and increased nursing scope. The study sample is small; findings need to be confirmed by specifically powered research.

Appropriateness of general practitioner imaging requests for transient ischaemic attack patients: secondary analysis of a cluster randomised controlled trial.

AIMS Many transient ischaemic attack (TIA) patients receive initial assessments by general practitioners (GPs). In a randomised controlled trial (RCT) we showed that BPAC Inc. TIA/stroke electronic decision support (EDS) for GPs improves patient outcomes and guideline adherence. This secondary analysis assesses the impact of trial associated enhanced GP access to radiological investigation. METHODS Post-hoc analysis of a multi-centre, single blind, parallel group, cluster RCT comparing TIA/stroke EDS guided GP management with usual care to assess whether imaging requests and their appropriateness differed between study groups. RESULTS GPs requested 15/291 (5.2%) carotid ultrasounds and 19/291 (6.5%) computed tomography (CT) head scans. Scans were obtained more frequently in the intervention group (ultrasound cluster adjusted OR (95% CI) 1.41 (0.44 to 4.49), P = 0.56 and CT 13.8 (1.7 to 110.7), P < 0.001). All CTs were clinically appropriate. More ultrasounds were appropriate in the EDS group (cluster adjusted OR (95% CI) of 8.4 (0.39 to 92.3), P = 0.18). Overall investigation costs did not differ between groups (P = 0.83). Some apparent avoidable imaging duplication occurred where patients were subsequently assessed by secondary services. CONCLUSION In the setting of a RCT assessing GP electronic decision support, frequency of GP initiated imaging requests was low and largely appropriate especially in the setting of EDS use. Thus enhanced GP imaging access as part of the EDS tool did not result in inappropriate or excessive GP imaging requests. However, some duplication occurred and practitioners need to ensure that test referrals and results are adequately communicated between sectors.

Epidemiology of Patient Harms in New Zealand: Protocol of a General Practice Records Review Study.

BACKGROUND: Knowing where and why harm occurs in general practice will assist patients, doctors, and others in making informed decisions about the risks and benefits of treatment options. Research to date has been unable to verify the safety of primary health care and epidemiological research about patient harms in general practice is now a top priority for advancing health systems safety. OBJECTIVE: We aim to study the incidence, distribution, severity, and preventability of the harms patients experience due to their health care, from the whole-of-health-system lens afforded by electronic general practice patient records. METHODS: "Harm" is defined as disease, injury, disability, suffering, and death, arising from the health system. The study design is a stratified, 2-level cluster, retrospective records review study. Both general practices and patients will be randomly selected so that the study's results will apply nationally, after weighting. Stratification by practice size and rurality will allow comparisons between 6 study groups (large, medium-sized, small; urban and rural practices). Records of equal numbers of patients from each study group will be included in the study because there may be systematic differences in patient harms in different types of practices. Eight general practitioner investigators will review 3 years of electronic general practice health records (consultation notes, prescriptions, investigations, referrals, and summaries of hospital care) from 9000 patients registered in 60 general practices. Double-blinded reviews will check the concordance of reviewers' assessments. Study data will comprise demographic data of all 9000 patients and reviewers' assessments of whether patients experienced harm arising from health care. Where patient harm is identified, their types, preventability, severity, and outcomes will be coded using the Medical Dictionary for Regulatory Activities (MedDRA) 18.0. RESULTS: We have recruited practices and collected electronic records from 9078 patients. Reviews of these records are under way. The study is expected to be completed in August 2017. CONCLUSIONS: The design of this complex study is presented with discussion on data collection methods, sampling weights, power analysis, and statistical approach. This study will show the epidemiology of patient harms recorded in general practice records for all of New Zealand and will show whether this epidemiology differs by rural location and clinic size.

Hospital admissions in diabetic and non-diabetic patients: a case-control study.

AIM: To examine differences in morbidity and rates of hospital admission between diabetes patients and patients without diabetes in New Zealand. METHODS: A 1,123 and 11,325 patients with Types 1 and 2 diabetes in the Southlink Health diabetes register were identified. Types 1 and 2 diabetes patients were matched with non-diabetic patients drawn from primary care patient registers. Hospital admission rates for diabetic complications and general medical conditions, length of stay in hospital, patients readmitted, deaths in hospital and hospital procedures were analyzed for the 3-year period from 2000 to 2002. RESULTS: Diabetes patients were more likely to be admitted to hospital for any reason than patients without diabetes (odds ratio (OR) 2.55, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.13-3.04, p<0.001 for Type 1 patients; OR 1.40, CI 1.33-1.48, p<0.001 for Type 2 patients). A 46% (770) of all admissions for Type 1 patients were due to complications arising from diabetes and 33% (4685) for Type 2 patients. Major complications included ischaemic heart disease, heart failure, cataracts and conditions specific to diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: Increasing prevalence of diabetes will increase demand for hospital services overall, and particularly for inpatient care related to macroangiopathy, ophthalmic and renal problems and peripheral circulatory disorders.