Relationship between journal impact factor and the thoroughness and helpfulness of peer reviews.

The Journal Impact Factor is often used as a proxy measure for journal quality, but the empirical evidence is scarce. In particular, it is unclear how peer review characteristics for a journal relate to its impact factor. We analysed 10,000 peer review reports submitted to 1,644 biomedical journals with impact factors ranging from 0.21 to 74.7. Two researchers hand-coded sentences using categories of content related to the thoroughness of the review (Materials and Methods, Presentation and Reporting, Results and Discussion, Importance and Relevance) and helpfulness (Suggestion and Solution, Examples, Praise, Criticism). We fine-tuned and validated transformer machine learning language models to classify sentences. We then examined the association between the number and percentage of sentences addressing different content categories and 10 groups defined by the Journal Impact Factor. The median length of reviews increased with higher impact factor, from 185 words (group 1) to 387 words (group 10). The percentage of sentences addressing Materials and Methods was greater in the highest Journal Impact Factor journals than in the lowest Journal Impact Factor group. The results for Presentation and Reporting went in the opposite direction, with the highest Journal Impact Factor journals giving less emphasis to such content. For helpfulness, reviews for higher impact factor journals devoted relatively less attention to Suggestion and Solution than lower impact factor journals. In conclusion, peer review in journals with higher impact factors tends to be more thorough, particularly in addressing study methods while giving relatively less emphasis to presentation or suggesting solutions. Differences were modest and variability high, indicating that the Journal Impact Factor is a bad predictor of the quality of peer review of an individual manuscript.

Novel antifungals and treatment approaches to tackle resistance and improve outcomes of invasive fungal disease.

SUMMARYFungal infections are on the rise, driven by a growing population at risk and climate change. Currently available antifungals include only five classes, and their utility and efficacy in antifungal treatment are limited by one or more of innate or acquired resistance in some fungi, poor penetration into "sequestered" sites, and agent-specific side effect which require frequent patient reassessment and monitoring. Agents with novel mechanisms, favorable pharmacokinetic (PK) profiles including good oral bioavailability, and fungicidal mechanism(s) are urgently needed. Here, we provide a comprehensive review of novel antifungal agents, with both improved known mechanisms of actions and new antifungal classes, currently in clinical development for treating invasive yeast, mold (filamentous fungi), Pneumocystis jirovecii infections, and dimorphic fungi (endemic mycoses). We further focus on inhaled antifungals and the role of immunotherapy in tackling fungal infections, and the specific PK/pharmacodynamic profiles, tissue distributions as well as drug-drug interactions of novel antifungals. Finally, we review antifungal resistance mechanisms, the role of use of antifungal pesticides in agriculture as drivers of drug resistance, and detail detection methods for antifungal resistance.

Race and ethnicity: Risk factors for fungal infections?

Racial and ethnic identities, largely understood as social rather than biologic constructs, may impact risk for acquiring infectious diseases, including fungal infections. Risk factors may include genetic and immunologic differences such as aberrations in host immune response, host polymorphisms, and epigenomic factors stemming from environmental exposures and underlying social determinants of health. In addition, certain racial and ethnic groups may be predisposed to diseases that increase risk for fungal infections, as well as disparities in healthcare access and health insurance. In this review, we analyzed racial and ethnic identities as risk factors for acquiring fungal infections, as well as race and ethnicity as they relate to risk for severe disease from fungal infections. Risk factors for invasive mold infections such as aspergillosis largely appear related to environmental differences and underlying social determinants of health, although immunologic aberrations and genetic polymorphisms may contribute in some circumstances. Although black and African American individuals appear to be at high risk for superficial and invasive Candida infections and cryptococcosis, the reasons for this are unclear and may be related to underling social determinants of health, disparities in access to healthcare, and other socioeconomic disparities. Risk factors for all the endemic fungi are likely largely related to underlying social determinants of health, socioeconomic, and health disparities, although immunologic mechanisms likely play a role as well, particularly in disseminated coccidioidomycosis.

Back-to-Africa introductions of Mycobacterium tuberculosis as the main cause of tuberculosis in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.

In settings with high tuberculosis (TB) endemicity, distinct genotypes of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC) often differ in prevalence. However, the factors leading to these differences remain poorly understood. Here we studied the MTBC population in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania over a six-year period, using 1,082 unique patient-derived MTBC whole-genome sequences (WGS) and associated clinical data. We show that the TB epidemic in Dar es Salaam is dominated by multiple MTBC genotypes introduced to Tanzania from different parts of the world during the last 300 years. The most common MTBC genotypes deriving from these introductions exhibited differences in transmission rates and in the duration of the infectious period, but little differences in overall fitness, as measured by the effective reproductive number. Moreover, measures of disease severity and bacterial load indicated no differences in virulence between these genotypes during active TB. Instead, the combination of an early introduction and a high transmission rate accounted for the high prevalence of L3.1.1, the most dominant MTBC genotype in this setting. Yet, a longer co-existence with the host population did not always result in a higher transmission rate, suggesting that distinct life-history traits have evolved in the different MTBC genotypes. Taken together, our results point to bacterial factors as important determinants of the TB epidemic in Dar es Salaam.

Fungal Endocarditis: Pathophysiology, Epidemiology, Clinical Presentation, Diagnosis, and Management.

Fungal endocarditis accounts for 1% to 3% of all infective endocarditis cases, is associated with high morbidity and mortality (>70%), and presents numerous challenges during clinical care. Candida spp. are the most common causes of fungal endocarditis, implicated in over 50% of cases, followed by Aspergillus and Histoplasma spp. Important risk factors for fungal endocarditis include prosthetic valves, prior heart surgery, and injection drug use. The signs and symptoms of fungal endocarditis are nonspecific, and a high degree of clinical suspicion coupled with the judicious use of diagnostic tests is required for diagnosis. In addition to microbiological diagnostics (e.g., blood culture for Candida spp. or galactomannan testing and PCR for Aspergillus spp.), echocardiography remains critical for evaluation of potential infective endocarditis, although radionuclide imaging modalities such as 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography are increasingly being used. A multimodal treatment approach is necessary: surgery is usually required and should be accompanied by long-term systemic antifungal therapy, such as echinocandin therapy for Candida endocarditis or voriconazole therapy for Aspergillus endocarditis.

Virologic Failure and Drug Resistance After Programmatic Switching to Dolutegravir-based First-line Antiretroviral Therapy in Malawi and Zambia.

BACKGROUND: People with human immunodeficiency virus (PWH) on first-line, nonnucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor-based antiretroviral therapy (ART) were routinely switched to tenofovir-lamivudine-dolutegravir. We examined virologic outcomes and drug resistance in ART programs in Malawi, where switching was irrespective of viral load, and Zambia, where switching depended on a viral load <1000 copies/mL in the past year. METHODS: We compared the risk of viremia (≥400 copies/mL) at 1 and 2 years by viral load at switch and between countries using exact methods and logistic regression adjusted for age and sex. We performed HIV-1 pol Sanger sequencing on plasma samples with viral load ≥1000 copies/mL. RESULTS: A total of 2832 PWH were eligible (Malawi 1422, Zambia 1410); the median age was 37 years, and 2578 (91.0%) were women. At switch, 77 (5.4%) were viremic in Malawi and 42 (3.0%) in Zambia (P = .001). Viremia at switch was associated with viremia at 1 year (adjusted odds ratio (OR), 6.15; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.13-11.4) and 2 years (7.0; 95% CI, 3.73-12.6). Viremia was less likely in Zambia than in Malawi at 1 year (OR, 0.55; 0.32-0.94) and 2 years (OR, 0.33; 0.18-0.57). Integrase sequencing was successful for 79 of 113 eligible samples. Drug resistance mutations were found in 5 PWH (Malawi 4, Zambia 1); 2 had major mutations (G118R, E138K, T66A and G118R, E138K) leading to high-level dolutegravir resistance. CONCLUSIONS: Restricting switching to dolutegravir-based ART to PWH with a viral load <1000 copies/mL may reduce subsequent viremia and, consequently, the emergence of dolutegravir drug resistance mutations. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov (NCT04612452).

Gynaecologic and breast cancers in women living with HIV in South Africa: A record linkage study.

Breast and gynaecologic cancers account for approximately half of all cancers diagnosed amongst women in South Africa, many of whom also live with HIV. We aimed to determine the incidence of and risk factors for developing breast and gynaecologic cancers in women living with HIV (WLHIV) in South Africa. This is a longitudinal analysis of the South African HIV Cancer Match study including women aged ≥15 years with two or more HIV-related laboratory tests. We used Cox proportional hazard models to determine the association of Human Papilloma Virus (HPV)-related and hormone-related gynaecologic cancer with patient- and municipal-level characteristics. From 3 447 908 women and 10.5 million years of follow-up, we identified 11 384 incident and 7612 prevalent gynaecologic and breast cancers. The overall crude incidence rate was 108/1 00 000 person-years (pyears) (95% confidence interval [CI]: 106-110), with the highest incidence observed for cervical cancer (70/1 00 000 pyears; 95% CI: 68.5-71.7). Low CD4 cell counts and high HIV RNA viral loads increased the risk of cervical and other HPV-related cancers. Age was associated with both HPV-related and hormone-related cancers. Women accessing health facilities in high socioeconomic position (SEP) municipalities were more likely to be diagnosed with HPV-related cancers and breast cancer than women accessing care in low SEP municipalities. It is important to improve the immunologic status of WLHIV as part of cancer prevention strategies in WLHIV. Cancer prevention and early detection programmes should be tailored to the needs of women ageing with HIV. In addition, SEP disparities in cancer diagnostic services have to be addressed.

Cervical precancer and cancer incidence among insured women with and without HIV in South Africa.

HIV infection increases the risk of developing cervical cancer; however, longitudinal studies in sub-Saharan Africa comparing cervical cancer rates between women living with HIV (WLWH) and women without HIV are scarce. To address this gap, we compared cervical precancer and cancer incidence rates between WLWH and women without HIV in South Africa using reimbursement claims data from a medical insurance scheme from January 2011 to June 2020. We used Royston-Parmar flexible parametric survival models to estimate cervical precancer and cancer incidence rates as a continuous function of age, stratified by HIV status. Our study population consisted of 518 048 women, with exclusions based on the endpoint of interest. To analyse cervical cancer incidence, we included 517 312 women, of whom 564 developed cervical cancer. WLWH had an ~3-fold higher risk of developing cervical precancer and cancer than women without HIV (adjusted hazard ratio for cervical cancer: 2.99; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.40-3.73). For all endpoints of interest, the estimated incidence rates were higher in WLWH than women without HIV. Cervical cancer rates among WLWH increased at early ages and peaked at 49 years (122/100 000 person-years; 95% CI: 100-147), whereas, in women without HIV, incidence rates peaked at 56 years (40/100 000 person-years; 95% CI: 36-45). Cervical precancer rates peaked in women in their 30s. Analyses of age-specific cervical cancer rates by HIV status are essential to inform the design of targeted cervical cancer prevention policies in Southern Africa and other regions with a double burden of HIV and cervical cancer.

Performance of the clarus Aspergillus galactomannan enzyme immunoassay prototype for the diagnosis of invasive pulmonary aspergillosis in serum.

BACKGROUND: Serum galactomannan (GM) testing is essential for diagnosing invasive aspergillosis (IA), particularly in immunocompromised individuals. The global lack of on-site GM testing capacities necessitates cost-effective alternatives, such as .the clarus Aspergillus GM enzyme immunoassay prototype (clarus AGM prototype). METHODS: This single-centre, cross-sectional study compared the diagnostic performance of the clarus AGM prototype (IMMY, Norman, Oklahoma) with the serological gold standard (=Platelia AGM assay; Bio-Rad, Marnes-la-Cocquette, France). IA was classified according to modified 2020 EORTC/MSG consensus and 2024 FUNDICU criteria. In total, 300 prospectively (May-Dec 2023) and retrospectively (2012-2015) collected samples were included. RESULTS: Among 300 samples from 232 patients, 49 (16%) were classified as proven (n = 1) or probable IA (n = 48). In non-IA cases (n = 250), one patient was classified as possible IA. With the manufacturer recommended cut-off of ≥0.2, sensitivity and specificity of the clarus AGM prototype were 27% (13/49; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 15%-41%) and 99% (248/250; 95% CI: 97%-100%), respectively, while sensitivity and specificity were 78% and 79% when using the optimised Youden's cut-off of 0.0045 ODI. ROC curve analysis demonstrated an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.829 (95% CI: 0.760-0.898) for the clarus AGM prototype in distinguishing between proven/probable IA and non-IA. The AUC for the Platelia AGM was 0.951 (95% CI: 0.909-994). Spearman's correlation analysis showed a weak correlation between the two assays (0.382; p < .001). CONCLUSIONS: The weak correlation between the clarus AGM prototype and Platelia AGM highlights the need for further investigation into the clinical performance of the clarus AGM prototype, giving the different antigen epitopes addressed.

Area-level excess mortality in times of COVID-19 in Switzerland: geographical, socioeconomic and political determinants.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-related excess mortality in Switzerland is well documented, but no study examined mortality at the small-area level. We analysed excess mortality in 2020 for 2141 Swiss municipalities using a Bayesian spatiotemporal model fitted to 2011-19 data. Areas most affected included the Ticino, the Romandie and the Northeast. Rural areas, municipalities within cross-border labour markets, of lower socioeconomic position and with less support for control measures in the popular vote on the COVID-19 Act had greater excess mortality. Particularly vulnerable municipalities require special efforts to mitigate the impact of pandemics.

Age and Cancer Incidence in 5.2 Million People With Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV): The South African HIV Cancer Match Study.

BACKGROUND: Old age is an important risk factor for developing cancer, but few data exist on this association in people with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV, PWH) in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: The South African HIV Cancer Match study is a nationwide cohort of PWH based on a linkage between HIV-related laboratory records from the National Health Laboratory Service and cancer diagnoses from the National Cancer Registry for 2004-2014. We included PWH who had HIV-related tests on separate days. Using natural splines, we modeled cancer incidence rates as a function of age. RESULTS: We included 5 222 827 PWH with 29 580 incident cancer diagnoses-most commonly cervical cancer (n = 7418), Kaposi sarcoma (n = 6380), and breast cancer (n = 2748). In young PWH, the incidence rates for infection-related cancers were substantially higher than for infection-unrelated cancers. At age 40 years, the most frequent cancer was cervical cancer in female and Kaposi sarcoma in male PWH. Thereafter, the rates of infection-unrelated cancers increased steeply, particularly among male PWH, where prostate cancer became the most frequent cancer type at older age. Whereas Kaposi sarcoma rates peaked at 34 years (101/100 000 person-years) in male PWH, cervical cancer remained the most frequent cancer among older female PWH. CONCLUSIONS: Infection-related cancers are common in PWH in South Africa, but rates of infection-unrelated cancers overtook those of infection-related cancers after age 54 years in the overall study population. As PWH in South Africa live longer, prevention and early detection of infection-unrelated cancers becomes increasingly important. Meanwhile, control strategies for infection-related cancers, especially cervical cancer, remain essential.

Alpha Variant Coronavirus Outbreak in a Nursing Home Despite High Vaccination Coverage: Molecular, Epidemiological, and Immunological Studies.

BACKGROUND: Vaccination may control the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, including in nursing homes where many high-risk people live. We conducted extensive outbreak investigations. METHODS: We studied an outbreak at a nursing home in Switzerland, where the uptake of messenger RNA vaccines against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was 82% among residents as of 21 January 2021. After diagnosis of COVID-19 in a vaccinated symptomatic healthcare worker (HCW) on 22 February, we performed outbreak investigations in house A (47 residents; 37 HCWs), using SARS-CoV-2-specific polymerase chain reaction testing of nasopharyngeal swab samples. We performed whole-genome sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 and serological analyses. RESULTS: We identified 17 individuals with positive polymerase chain reaction results, 10 residents (5 vaccinated) and 7 HCWs (3 vaccinated). The median age (interquartile range) was 86 (70-90) years among residents and 49 (29-59) years among HCWs. Of the 5 vaccinated residents, 3 had mild disease and 2 had no symptoms, whereas all 5 unvaccinated residents had mild to severe disease, and 2 died. Vaccine effectiveness for the prevention of infection among residents was 73.0% (95% confidence interval, 24.7%-90.1%). The 12 available genomes were all alpha variants. Neutralizing titers were significantly higher in vaccinated individuals on reexposure (>1 week after diagnosis) than in vaccinated, unexposed HCWs (P = .01). Transmission networks indicated 4 likely or possible transmissions from vaccinated to other individuals and 12 transmission events from unvaccinated individuals. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 outbreaks can occur in nursing homes, including transmission from vaccinated persons to others. Outbreaks might occur silently, underlining the need for continued testing and basic infection control measures in these high-risk settings.

Long-term hepatitis B and liver outcomes among adults taking tenofovir-containing antiretroviral therapy for HBV/HIV coinfection in Zambia.

BACKGROUND: Long-term outcomes of tenofovir-containing antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HBV/HIV coinfection were evaluated in Zambia. METHODS: A prospective cohort of adults with HIV and hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg)-positivity was enrolled at ART (included tenofovir DF + lamivudine) initiation. On therapy, we ascertained HBV viral load (VL) non-suppression, ALT elevation, serologic end-points, progression of liver fibrosis, based on elastography, and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) incidence. We also described a subgroup (low HBV VL and no/minimal fibrosis at baseline) that, under current international guidelines, would not have been treated in the absence of their HIV infection. RESULTS: Among 289 participants, at ART start, median age was 34 years, 40·1% were women, median CD4 count was 191 cells/mm3, 44·2% were hepatitis B e antigen-positive, and 28·4% had liver fibrosis/cirrhosis. Over median 5.91 years of ART, 13·6% developed HBV viral non-suppression, which was associated with advanced HIV disease. ALT elevation on ART was linked with HBV VL non-suppression. Regression of fibrosis and cirrhosis were common, progression to cirrhosis was absent, and no cases of HCC were ascertained. HBsAg seroclearance was 9·4% at 2 and 15·4% at 5 years, with higher rates among patients with low baseline HBV replication markers. DISCUSSION: Reassuring long-term liver outcomes were ascertained during tenofovir-based ART for HBV/HIV coinfection in Zambia. Higher than expected HBsAg seroclearance during ART underscores the need to include people with HIV in HBV cure research.

SARS-CoV-2 transmission with and without mask wearing or air cleaners in schools in Switzerland: A modeling study of epidemiological, environmental, and molecular data.

BACKGROUND: Growing evidence suggests an important contribution of airborne transmission to the overall spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), in particular via smaller particles called aerosols. However, the contribution of school children to SARS-CoV-2 transmission remains uncertain. The aim of this study was to assess transmission of airborne respiratory infections and the association with infection control measures in schools using a multiple-measurement approach. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We collected epidemiological (cases of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)), environmental (CO2, aerosol and particle concentrations), and molecular data (bioaerosol and saliva samples) over 7 weeks from January to March 2022 (Omicron wave) in 2 secondary schools (n = 90, average 18 students/classroom) in Switzerland. We analyzed changes in environmental and molecular characteristics between different study conditions (no intervention, mask wearing, air cleaners). Analyses of environmental changes were adjusted for different ventilation, the number of students in class, school and weekday effects. We modeled disease transmission using a semi-mechanistic Bayesian hierarchical model, adjusting for absent students and community transmission. Molecular analysis of saliva (21/262 positive) and airborne samples (10/130) detected SARS-CoV-2 throughout the study (weekly average viral concentration 0.6 copies/L) and occasionally other respiratory viruses. Overall daily average CO2 levels were 1,064 ± 232 ppm (± standard deviation). Daily average aerosol number concentrations without interventions were 177 ± 109 1/cm3 and decreased by 69% (95% CrI 42% to 86%) with mask mandates and 39% (95% CrI 4% to 69%) with air cleaners. Compared to no intervention, the transmission risk was lower with mask mandates (adjusted odds ratio 0.19, 95% CrI 0.09 to 0.38) and comparable with air cleaners (1.00, 95% CrI 0.15 to 6.51). Study limitations include possible confounding by period as the number of susceptible students declined over time. Furthermore, airborne detection of pathogens document exposure but not necessarily transmission. CONCLUSIONS: Molecular detection of airborne and human SARS-CoV-2 indicated sustained transmission in schools. Mask mandates were associated with greater reductions in aerosol concentrations than air cleaners and with lower transmission. Our multiple-measurement approach could be used to continuously monitor transmission risk of respiratory infections and the effectiveness of infection control measures in schools and other congregate settings.

Metagenomic Next-Generation Sequencing of Plasma for Diagnosis of COVID-19-Associated Pulmonary Aspergillosis.

Timely diagnosis remains an unmet need in non-neutropenic patients at risk for aspergillosis, including those with COVID-19-associated pulmonary aspergillosis (CAPA), which in its early stages is characterized by tissue-invasive growth of the lungs with limited angioinvasion. Currently available mycological tests show limited sensitivity when testing blood specimens. Metagenomic next-generation sequencing (mNGS) to detect microbial cell-free DNA (mcfDNA) in plasma might overcome some of the limitations of conventional diagnostics. A two-center cohort study involving 114 COVID-19 intensive care unit patients evaluated the performance of plasma mcfDNA sequencing for the diagnosis of CAPA. Classification of CAPA was performed using the European Confederation for Medical Mycology (ECMM)/International Society for Human and Animal Mycoses (ISHAM) criteria. A total of 218 plasma samples were collected between April 2020 and June 2021 and tested for mcfDNA (Karius test). Only 6 patients were classified as probable CAPA, and 2 were classified as possible, while 106 patients did not fulfill CAPA criteria. The Karius test detected DNA of mold pathogens in 12 samples from 8 patients, including Aspergillus fumigatus in 10 samples from 6 patients. Mold pathogen DNA was detected in 5 of 6 (83% sensitivity) cases with probable CAPA (A. fumigatus in 8 samples from 4 patients and Rhizopus microsporus in 1 sample), while the test did not detect molds in 103 of 106 (97% specificity) cases without CAPA. The Karius test showed promising performance for diagnosis of CAPA when testing plasma, being highly specific. The test detected molds in all but one patient with probable CAPA, including cases where other mycological tests from blood resulted continuously negative, outlining the need for validation in larger studies.

Fungal translocation measured by serum 1,3-ß-D-glucan correlates with severity and outcome of liver cirrhosis-A pilot study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: On a global scale, liver cirrhosis is attributable to ~1 million deaths per year. This systemic disease comes along with diverse sequelae, including microbiota alterations, increased gut permeability and translocation of microbial components into the systemic circulation. Alongside the extensively studied influence of bacterial translocation and its host-pathogen interactions, far less is known about the role and impact of fungal components once having crossed the intestinal barrier. METHODS: Including 70 patients with different aetiologies of liver cirrhosis, we investigated the relationship between fungal translocation, measured by 1,3-ß-D-glucan (BDG), and biomarkers of gut integrity, inflammation and severity/outcome of liver disease. RESULTS: Patients with cirrhosis Child-Pugh class (CPC)-B were more likely to have positive serum BDG (aOR 5.4, 95% CI 1.2-25.2) compared to patients with cirrhosis CPC-A. BDG showed a moderate positive correlation with several markers of inflammation (sCD206, sCD163, Interleukin 8, interferon-gamma-induced protein). Mortality differed significantly between patients with positive versus negative BDG (log-rank test, p = 0.015). The multivariable Cox regression model yielded an aHR of 6.8 (95% CI 1.8-26.3). DISCUSSION: We observed trends for increased fungal translocation depending on the severity of liver cirrhosis, an association of BDG with an inflammatory environment and the adverse effects of BDG on disease outcome. In order to gain more in-depth knowledge about (fungal-)dysbiosis and its detrimental consequences in the setting of liver cirrhosis, these trends need to be studied in more detail including prospective sequential testing in larger cohorts together with mycobiome analyses. This will further elucidate complex host-pathogen interactions and potentially introduce points of application for therapeutic interventions.

Measuring the performance of prediction models to personalize treatment choice.

When data are available from individual patients receiving either a treatment or a control intervention in a randomized trial, various statistical and machine learning methods can be used to develop models for predicting future outcomes under the two conditions, and thus to predict treatment effect at the patient level. These predictions can subsequently guide personalized treatment choices. Although several methods for validating prediction models are available, little attention has been given to measuring the performance of predictions of personalized treatment effect. In this article, we propose a range of measures that can be used to this end. We start by defining two dimensions of model accuracy for treatment effects, for a single outcome: discrimination for benefit and calibration for benefit. We then amalgamate these two dimensions into an additional concept, decision accuracy, which quantifies the model's ability to identify patients for whom the benefit from treatment exceeds a given threshold. Subsequently, we propose a series of performance measures related to these dimensions and discuss estimating procedures, focusing on randomized data. Our methods are applicable for continuous or binary outcomes, for any type of prediction model, as long as it uses baseline covariates to predict outcomes under treatment and control. We illustrate all methods using two simulated datasets and a real dataset from a trial in depression. We implement all methods in the R package predieval. Results suggest that the proposed measures can be useful in evaluating and comparing the performance of competing models in predicting individualized treatment effect.

Mental Health, ART Adherence, and Viral Suppression Among Adolescents and Adults Living with HIV in South Africa: A Cohort Study.

We followed adolescents and adults living with HIV aged older than 15 years who enrolled in a South African private-sector HIV programme to examine adherence and viral non-suppression (viral load > 400 copies/mL) of participants with (20,743, 38%) and without (33,635, 62%) mental health diagnoses. Mental health diagnoses were associated with unfavourable adherence patterns. The risk of viral non-suppression was higher among patients with organic mental disorders [adjusted risk ratio (aRR) 1.55, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.22-1.96], substance use disorders (aRR 1.53, 95% CI 1.19-1.97), serious mental disorders (aRR 1.30, 95% CI 1.09-1.54), and depression (aRR 1.19, 95% CI 1.10-1.28) when compared with patients without mental health diagnoses. The risk of viral non-suppression was also higher among males, adolescents (15-19 years), and young adults (20-24 years). Our study highlights the need for psychosocial interventions to improve HIV treatment outcomes-particularly of adolescents and young adults-and supports strengthening mental health services in HIV treatment programmes.

RESUMEN: Monitoreamos adolescentes y adultos mayores de 15 años que viven con VIH y que están registrados en un programa privado Surafricano para el tratamiento del VIH. Nuestro propósito fue examinar adherencia a los medicamentos y supresión viral (carga viral < 400 copias/mL) en los participantes con (20,743, 38%) y sin (33,635, 62%) diagnósticos de salud mental. Los diagnósticos de salud mental estuvieron asociados con patrones de adherencia desfavorables. Comparados con pacientes sin diagnósticos de salud mental, el riesgo de no supresión viral fue más alto entre pacientes con desórdenes mentales orgánicos [riesgo relativo ajustado (aRR) 1.55, 95% intervalo de confidencia (CI) 1.22­1.96], desórdenes en el uso de sustancias (aRR 1.53, 95% CI 1.19­1.97), desórdenes mentales serios (aRR 1.30, 95% CI 1.09­1.54), y depresión (aRR 1.19, 95% CI 1.10­1.28). El riesgo de no supresión viral también fue más alto en hombres que en mujeres, en adolescentes (15­19 años), y en adultos jóvenes. Nuestro estudio resalta la necesidad de intervenciones psicosociales para mejorar los resultados del tratamiento contra el VIH ­particularmente en adolescentes y adultos jóvenes­, y respalda el fortalecimiento de servicios de salud mental como parte de los programas para el tratamiento del VIH.

Non-invasive three-dimensional electrical activation mapping to predict cardiac resynchronization therapy response: site of latest left ventricular activation relative to pacing site.

AIMS: Pacing remote from the latest electrically activated site (LEAS) in the left ventricle (LV) may diminish response to cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT). We tested whether proximity of LV pacing site (LVPS) to LEAS, determined by non-invasive three-dimensional electrical activation mapping [electrocardiographic Imaging (ECGI)], increased likelihood of CRT response. METHODS AND RESULTS: Consecutive CRT patients underwent ECGI and chest/heart computed tomography 6-24 months of post-implant. Latest electrically activated site and the distance to LVPS (dp) were assessed. Left ventricular end-systolic volume (LVESV) reduction of ≥15% at clinical follow-up defined response. Logistic regression probabilistically modelled non-response; variables included demographics, heart failure classification, left bundle branch block (LBBB), ischaemic heart disease (IHD), atrial fibrillation, QRS duration, baseline ejection fraction (EF) and LVESV, comorbidities, use of CRT optimization algorithm, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor(ACE)/angiotensin-receptor blocker (ARB), beta-blocker, diuretics, and dp. Of 111 studied patients [64 ± 11 years, EF 28 ± 6%, implant duration 12 ± 5 months (mean ± SD), 98% had LBBB, 38% IHD], 67% responded at 10 ± 3 months post CRT-implant. Latest electrically activated sites were outside the mid-to-basal lateral segments in 35% of the patients. dp was 42 ± 23 mm [31 ± 14 mm for responders vs. 63 ± 24 mm non-responders (P < 0.001)]. Longer dp and the lack of use of CRT optimization algorithm were the only independent predictors of non-response [area under the curve (AUC) 0.906]. dp of 47 mm delineated responders and non-responders (AUC 0.931). CONCLUSION: The distance between LV pacing site and latest electrical activation is a strong independent predictor for CRT response. Non-invasive electrical evaluation to characterize intrinsic activation and guide LV lead deployment may improve CRT efficacy.

The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic and Associated Control Measures on the Mental Health of the General Population : A Systematic Review and Dose-Response Meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: To what extent the COVID-19 pandemic and its containment measures influenced mental health in the general population is still unclear. PURPOSE: To assess the trajectory of mental health symptoms during the first year of the pandemic and examine dose-response relations with characteristics of the pandemic and its containment. DATA SOURCES: Relevant articles were identified from the living evidence database of the COVID-19 Open Access Project, which indexes COVID-19-related publications from MEDLINE via PubMed, Embase via Ovid, and PsycInfo. Preprint publications were not considered. STUDY SELECTION: Longitudinal studies that reported data on the general population's mental health using validated scales and that were published before 31 March 2021 were eligible. DATA EXTRACTION: An international crowd of 109 trained reviewers screened references and extracted study characteristics, participant characteristics, and symptom scores at each timepoint. Data were also included for the following country-specific variables: days since the first case of SARS-CoV-2 infection, the stringency of governmental containment measures, and the cumulative numbers of cases and deaths. DATA SYNTHESIS: In a total of 43 studies (331 628 participants), changes in symptoms of psychological distress, sleep disturbances, and mental well-being varied substantially across studies. On average, depression and anxiety symptoms worsened in the first 2 months of the pandemic (standardized mean difference at 60 days, -0.39 [95% credible interval, -0.76 to -0.03]); thereafter, the trajectories were heterogeneous. There was a linear association of worsening depression and anxiety with increasing numbers of reported cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection and increasing stringency in governmental measures. Gender, age, country, deprivation, inequalities, risk of bias, and study design did not modify these associations. LIMITATIONS: The certainty of the evidence was low because of the high risk of bias in included studies and the large amount of heterogeneity. Stringency measures and surges in cases were strongly correlated and changed over time. The observed associations should not be interpreted as causal relationships. CONCLUSION: Although an initial increase in average symptoms of depression and anxiety and an association between higher numbers of reported cases and more stringent measures were found, changes in mental health symptoms varied substantially across studies after the first 2 months of the pandemic. This suggests that different populations responded differently to the psychological stress generated by the pandemic and its containment measures. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Swiss National Science Foundation. (PROSPERO: CRD42020180049).