Aquatic foods to nourish nations.

Despite contributing to healthy diets for billions of people, aquatic foods are often undervalued as a nutritional solution because their diversity is often reduced to the protein and energy value of a single food type ('seafood' or 'fish')1-4. Here we create a cohesive model that unites terrestrial foods with nearly 3,000 taxa of aquatic foods to understand the future impact of aquatic foods on human nutrition. We project two plausible futures to 2030: a baseline scenario with moderate growth in aquatic animal-source food (AASF) production, and a high-production scenario with a 15-million-tonne increased supply of AASFs over the business-as-usual scenario in 2030, driven largely by investment and innovation in aquaculture production. By comparing changes in AASF consumption between the scenarios, we elucidate geographic and demographic vulnerabilities and estimate health impacts from diet-related causes. Globally, we find that a high-production scenario will decrease AASF prices by 26% and increase their consumption, thereby reducing the consumption of red and processed meats that can lead to diet-related non-communicable diseases5,6 while also preventing approximately 166 million cases of inadequate micronutrient intake. This finding provides a broad evidentiary basis for policy makers and development stakeholders to capitalize on the potential of aquatic foods to reduce food and nutrition insecurity and tackle malnutrition in all its forms.

Characterizing pathways of seafood access in small island developing states.

Ensuring healthy and sustainable food systems in increasing social, economic, and ecological change is a key global priority to protect human and environmental health. Seafood is an essential component of these food systems and a critical source of nutrients, especially in coastal communities. However, despite rapid transformations in aquatic food systems, and our urgent need to understand them, there is a dearth of data connecting harvested food production to actualized food consumption. Many analyses suggest institutional, legal, or technological innovations to improve food systems, but few have analyzed the pathways through which people already gain access to nutritious food. Here, using a random forest model and cluster analysis of a nationally representative data set from Kiribati, we operationalize access theory to trace the flows of consumptive benefit in a fisheries-based food system. We demonstrate that the market access mechanism is the key mechanism mediating seafood access in Kiribati, but importantly, the highest seafood consumption households showed lower market access, pointing to the importance of non-market acquisition (e.g., home production and gifting). We reveal six distinct household strategies that employ different sets of access mechanisms to ensure high levels of local seafood consumption in different contexts. We demonstrate the impacts of these strategies on the composition of household seafoods consumed, stressing the need to support these existing successful strategies. Finally, we point to key policy and management insights (e.g., improved infrastructure, shifts in species management) that may be more effective in reinforcing these existing pathways than commonly proposed food system interventions.

A marine protected area network does not confer community structure resilience to a marine heatwave across coastal ecosystems.

Marine protected areas (MPAs) have gained attention as a conservation tool for enhancing ecosystem resilience to climate change. However, empirical evidence explicitly linking MPAs to enhanced ecological resilience is limited and mixed. To better understand whether MPAs can buffer climate impacts, we tested the resistance and recovery of marine communities to the 2014-2016 Northeast Pacific heatwave in the largest scientifically designed MPA network in the world off the coast of California, United States. The network consists of 124 MPAs (48 no-take state marine reserves, and 76 partial-take or special regulation conservation areas) implemented at different times, with full implementation completed in 2012. We compared fish, benthic invertebrate, and macroalgal community structure inside and outside of 13 no-take MPAs across rocky intertidal, kelp forest, shallow reef, and deep reef nearshore habitats in California's Central Coast region from 2007 to 2020. We also explored whether MPA features, including age, size, depth, proportion rock, historic fishing pressure, habitat diversity and richness, connectivity, and fish biomass response ratios (proxy for ecological performance), conferred climate resilience for kelp forest and rocky intertidal habitats spanning 28 MPAs across the full network. Ecological communities dramatically shifted due to the marine heatwave across all four nearshore habitats, and MPAs did not facilitate habitat-wide resistance or recovery. Only in protected rocky intertidal habitats did community structure significantly resist marine heatwave impacts. Community shifts were associated with a pronounced decline in the relative proportion of cold water species and an increase in warm water species. MPA features did not explain resistance or recovery to the marine heatwave. Collectively, our findings suggest that MPAs have limited ability to mitigate the impacts of marine heatwaves on community structure. Given that mechanisms of resilience to climate perturbations are complex, there is a clear need to expand assessments of ecosystem-wide consequences resulting from acute climate-driven perturbations, and the potential role of regulatory protection in mitigating community structure changes.

Mass coral bleaching causes biotic homogenization of reef fish assemblages.

Global climate change is altering community composition across many ecosystems due to nonrandom species turnover, typically characterized by the loss of specialist species and increasing similarity of biological communities across spatial scales. As anthropogenic disturbances continue to alter species composition globally, there is a growing need to identify how species responses influence the establishment of distinct assemblages, such that management actions may be appropriately assigned. Here, we use trait-based analyses to compare temporal changes in five complementary indices of reef fish assemblage structure among six taxonomically distinct coral reef habitats exposed to a system-wide thermal stress event. Our results revealed increased taxonomic and functional similarity of previously distinct reef fish assemblages following mass coral bleaching, with changes characterized by subtle, but significant, shifts toward predominance of small-bodied, algal-farming habitat generalists. Furthermore, while the taxonomic or functional richness of fish assemblages did not change across all habitats, an increase in functional originality indicated an overall loss of functional redundancy. We also found that prebleaching coral composition better predicted changes in fish assemblage structure than the magnitude of coral loss. These results emphasize how measures of alpha diversity can mask important changes in the structure and functioning of ecosystems as assemblages reorganize. Our findings also highlight the role of coral species composition in structuring communities and influencing the diversity of responses of reef fishes to disturbance. As new coral species configurations emerge, their desirability will hinge upon the composition of associated species and their capacity to maintain key ecological processes in spite of ongoing disturbances.

Study Protocol: Interactive Dynamics of Coral Reef Fisheries and the Nutrition Transition in Kiribati.

The Kiribati 2019 Integrated Household Income and Expenditure Survey (Integrated HIES) embeds novel ecological and human health research into an ongoing social and economic survey infrastructure implemented by the Pacific Community in partnership with national governments. This study seeks to describe the health status of a large, nationally representative sample of a geographically and socially diverse I-Kiribati population through multiple clinical measurements and detailed socio-economic surveys, while also conducting supporting food systems research on ecological, social, and institutional drivers of change. The specific hypotheses within this research relate to access to seafood and the potential nutritional and health benefits of these foods. We conducted this research in 21 of the 23 inhabited islands of Kiribati, excluding the two inhabited islands-Kanton Islands in the Phoenix Islands group with a population of 41 persons (2020 census) and Banaba Island in the Gilbert Islands group with a population of 333 persons (2020 census)-and focusing exclusively on the remaining islands in the Gilbert and Line Islands groups. Within this sample, we focused our intensive human health and ecological research in 10 of the 21 selected islands to examine the relationship between ecological conditions, resource governance, food system dynamics, and dietary patterns. Ultimately, this research has created a baseline for future Integrated HIES assessments to simultaneously monitor change in ecological, social, economic, and human health conditions and how they co-vary over time.

COVID-19 and Pacific food system resilience: opportunities to build a robust response.

The unfolding COVID-19 pandemic has exposed the vulnerability of the Pacific food system to externalities and has had far-reaching impacts, despite the small number of COVID-19 cases recorded thus far. Measures adopted to mitigate risk from the pandemic have had severe impacts on tourism, remittances, and international trade, among other aspects of the political economy of the region, and are thus impacting on food systems, food security and livelihoods. Of particular concern will be the interplay between loss of incomes and the availability and affordability of local and imported foods. In this paper, we examine some of the key pathways of impact on food systems, and identify opportunities to strengthen Pacific food systems during these challenging times. The great diversity among Pacific Island Countries and Territories in their economies, societies, and agricultural potential will be an important guide to planning interventions and developing scenarios of alternative futures. Bolstering regional production and intraregional trade in a currently import-dependent region could strengthen the regional economy, and provide the health benefits of consuming locally produced and harvested fresh foods - as well as decreasing reliance on global supply chains. However, significant production, processing, and storage challenges remain and would need to be consistently overcome to influence a move away from shelf-stable foods, particularly during periods when human movement is restricted and during post-disaster recovery.