Prediction of post-acute care demand in medical and neurological inpatients: diagnostic assessment of the post-acute discharge score - a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Early identification of patients requiring transfer to post-acute care (PAC) facilities shortens hospital stays. With a focus on interprofessional assessment of biopsychosocial risk, this study's aim was to assess medical and neurological patients' post-acute care discharge (PACD) scores on days 1 and 3 after hospital admission regarding diagnostic accuracy and effectiveness as an early screening tool. The transfer to PAC facilities served as the outcome ("gold standard"). METHODS: In this prospective cohort study, registered at ClinicalTrial.gov (NCT01768494) on January 2013, 1432 medical and 464 neurological patients (total n = 1896) were included consecutively between February and October 2013. PACD scores and other relevant data were extracted from electronic records of patient admissions, hospital stays, and interviews at day 30 post-hospital admission. To gauge the scores' accuracy, we plotted receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calculated area under the curve (AUC), and determined sensitivity and specificity at various cut-off levels. RESULTS: Medical patients' day 1 and day 3 PACD scores accurately predicted discharge to PAC facilities, with respective discriminating powers (AUC) of 0.77 and 0.82. With a PACD cut-off of ≥8 points, day 1 and 3 sensitivities were respectively 72.6% and 83.6%, with respective specificities of 66.5% and 70.0%. Neurological patients' scores showed lower accuracy both days: using the same cut-off, respective day 1 and day 3 AUCs were 0.68 and 0.78, sensitivities 41.4% and 68.7% and specificities 81.4% and 83.4%. CONCLUSION: PACD scores at days 1 and 3 accurately predicted transfer to PAC facilities, especially in medical patients on day 3. To confirm and refine these results, PACD scores' value to guide discharge planning interventions and subsequent impact on hospital stay warrants further investigation. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinialTrials.gov Identifier, NCT01768494 .

Unraveling the Link between Malnutrition and Adverse Clinical Outcomes: Association of Acute and Chronic Malnutrition Measures with Blood Biomarkers from Different Pathophysiological States.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Malnutrition is associated with poor clinical outcomes. Whether there is a causal relationship or it merely mirrors a severe patient condition remains unclear. We examined the association of malnutrition with biomarkers characteristic of different pathophysiological states to better understand the underlying etiological mechanisms. METHODS: We prospectively followed consecutive adult medical inpatients. Multivariable regression models were used to investigate the associations between malnutrition - as assessed using the Nutritional Risk Screening (NRS 2002) - and biomarkers linked to inflammation, stress, renal dysfunction, nutritional status and hematologic function. RESULTS: A total of 529 patients were included. In a fully adjusted model, malnutrition was significantly associated with the inflammatory markers procalcitonin (0.20, 95% CI 0.03-0.37), proadrenomedullin (0.28, 95% CI 0.12-0.43) and albumin (-0.39, 95% CI -0.57 to -0.21), the stress marker copeptin (0.34, 95% CI 0.17-0.51), the renal function marker urea (0.23, 95% CI 0.07-0.38), the nutritional markers vitamin D25 (-0.22, 95% CI -0.41 to -0.02) and corrected calcium (0.29, 95% CI 0.10-0.49) and the hematological markers hemoglobin (-0.27, 95% CI -0.43 to -0.10) and red blood cell distribution width (0.26, 95% CI 0.07-0.44). Subgroup analysis suggested that acute malnutrition rather than chronic malnutrition was associated with elevated biomarker levels. CONCLUSION: Acute malnutrition was associated with a pronounced inflammatory response and an alteration in biomarkers associated with different pathophysiological states. Interventional trials are needed to prove causality.

Performance of the Manchester Triage System in Adult Medical Emergency Patients: A Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Accurate initial patient triage in the emergency department (ED) is pivotal in reducing time to effective treatment by the medical team and in expediting patient flow. The Manchester Triage System (MTS) is widely implemented for this purpose. Yet the overall effectiveness of its performance remains unclear. OBJECTIVES: We investigated the ability of MTS to accurately assess high treatment priority and to predict adverse clinical outcomes in a large unselected population of medical ED patients. METHODS: We prospectively followed consecutive medical patients seeking ED care for 30 days. Triage nurses implemented MTS upon arrival of patients admitted to the ED. The primary endpoint was high initial treatment priority adjudicated by two independent physicians. Secondary endpoints were 30-day all-cause mortality, admission to the intensive care unit (ICU), and length of stay. We used regression models with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) as a measure of discrimination. RESULTS: Of the 2407 patients, 524 (21.8%) included patients (60.5 years, 55.7% males) who were classified as high treatment priority; 3.9% (n = 93) were transferred to the ICU; and 5.7% (n = 136) died. The initial MTS showed fair prognostic accuracy in predicting treatment priority (AUC 0.71) and ICU admission (AUC 0.68), but not in predicting mortality (AUC 0.55). Results were robust across most predefined subgroups, including patients diagnosed with infections, or cardiovascular or gastrointestinal diseases. In the subgroup of neurological symptoms and disorders, the MTS showed the best performance. CONCLUSION: The MTS showed fair performance in predicting high treatment priority and adverse clinical outcomes across different medical ED patient populations. Future research should focus on further refinement of the MTS so that its performance can be improved. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov: NCT01768494.

Psychological distress in medical patients seeking ED care for somatic reasons: results of a systematic literature review.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this systematic literature review is to investigate (A) currently used instruments for assessing psychological distress, (B) the prevalence of psychological distress in medical emergency department (ED) patients with acute somatic conditions and (C) empirical evidence on how predictors are associated with psychological distress. METHODS: We conducted an electronic literature search using three databases to identify studies that used validated instruments for detection of psychological distress in adult patients presented to the ED with somatic (non-psychiatric) complaints. From a total of 1688 potential articles, 18 studies were selected for in-depth review. RESULTS: A total of 13 instruments have been applied for assessment of distress including screening questionnaires and briefly structured clinical interviews. Using these instruments, the prevalence of psychological distress detected in medical ED patients was between 4% and 47%. Psychological distress in general and particularly depression and anxiety have been found to be associated with demographic factors (eg, female gender, middle age) and illness-related variables (eg, urgency of triage category). Some studies reported that coexisting psychological distress of medical patients identified in the ED was associated with physical and psychological health status after ED discharge. Importantly, during routine clinical care, only few patients with psychological distress were diagnosed by their treating physicians. CONCLUSIONS: There is strong evidence that psychological distress is an important and prevalent cofactor in medically ill patients presenting to the ED with harmful associations with (subjective) health outcomes. To prove causality, future research should investigate whether screening and lowering psychological distress with specific interventions would result in better patient outcomes.

Psychological distress in medical patients 30 days following an emergency department admission: results from a prospective, observational study.

BACKGROUND: Psychological distress in medical patients admitted to the emergency department (ED) is not well studied. Our aim was to investigate the extent of psychological distress in a broad and unselected medical patient sample 30 days after ED admission and its association with socio-demographic and clinical variables. METHOD: We used data from a prospective observational cohort study including 1575 consecutive adult medical patients presenting to the ED with acute somatic conditions. Outcome variables were patient's psychological distress measured by the 4-item Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-4) and self-rated health assessed 30 days after ED admission using telephone interviews. Risk factors included socio-demographic variables (e.g. gender, marital status), clinical presentation (e.g. illness severity, main initial diagnosis) and course of illness (e.g. rehospitalisation, length of hospital stay). RESULTS: A total of 38 % of patients had evidence for psychological distress 30 days after ED admission. Multivariate analysis found female gender (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.35, 95 % confidence interval [CI] 1.02 to 1.78), comorbid psychiatric disorder (aOR 1.63, 95 % CI 1.08 to 2.62), discharge to a post-acute care institution (aOR 1.47, 95 % CI 1.03 to 2.09), unplanned rehospitalisation (aOR 2.38, 95 % CI 1.47 to 3.86), and unplanned visit at general practitioner (aOR 4.75, 95 % CI 2.57 to 8.80) to be associated with distress at day 30 following ED admission. CONCLUSIONS: One month after ED admission a significant number of patients still show a moderate amount of psychophysical distress. Strongest related variables were course of illness, in particular unplanned general practitioner visits. Future interventional studies should assess possibilities to reduce distress in patients at increased risk. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT01768494 , January 9, 2013 (registration date), February 25, 2013 (enrolment of first participant).

Biomarkers from distinct biological pathways improve early risk stratification in medical emergency patients: the multinational, prospective, observational TRIAGE study.

INTRODUCTION: Early risk stratification in the emergency department (ED) is vital to reduce time to effective treatment in high-risk patients and to improve patient flow. Yet, there is a lack of investigations evaluating the incremental usefulness of multiple biomarkers measured upon admission from distinct biological pathways for predicting fatal outcome and high initial treatment urgency in unselected ED patients in a multicenter and multinational setting. METHOD: We included consecutive, adult, medical patients seeking ED care into this observational, cohort study in Switzerland, France and the USA. We recorded initial clinical parameters and batch-measured prognostic biomarkers of inflammation (pro-adrenomedullin [ProADM]), stress (copeptin) and infection (procalcitonin). RESULTS: During a 30-day follow-up, 331 of 7132 (4.6 %) participants reached the primary endpoint of death within 30 days. In logistic regression models adjusted for conventional risk factors available at ED admission, all three biomarkers strongly predicted the risk of death (AUC 0.83, 0.78 and 0.75), ICU admission (AUC 0.67, 0.69 and 0.62) and high initial triage priority (0.67, 0.66 and 0.58). For the prediction of death, ProADM significantly improved regression models including (a) clinical information available at ED admission (AUC increase from 0.79 to 0.84), (b) full clinical information at ED discharge (AUC increase from 0.85 to 0.88), and (c) triage information (AUC increase from 0.67 to 0.83) (p <0.01 for each comparison). Similarly, ProADM also improved clinical models for prediction of ICU admission and high initial treatment urgency. Results were robust in regard to predefined patient subgroups by center, main diagnosis, presenting symptoms, age and gender. CONCLUSIONS: Combination of clinical information with results of blood biomarkers measured upon ED admission allows early and more adequate risk stratification in individual unselected medical ED patients. A randomized trial is needed to answer the question whether biomarker-guided initial patient triage reduces time to initial treatment of high-risk patients in the ED and thereby improves patient flow and clinical outcomes. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01768494 . Registered January 9, 2013.

The use of nurse-led care intervention to improve self-care abilities subsequently decreasing readmission in multimorbid hospitalized patients: A quasi-experimental study in a real-world setting.

AIM: Nurse-led care aims to optimize the discharge preparation with a focus on increasing patients' independency and self-care abilities. This study compared patients' improvements of self-care abilities and frequency of readmission rate between nurse-led care and regular nursing care within the acute hospital setting. DESIGN: A quasi-experimental design within a real-world setting was used for this work. METHODS: We included a pool of 2501 patients from a control group (medically stable in usual care) and 420 patients from an intervention group (nurse-led care). After propensity score matching, the study cohort consisted of 612 patients. RESULTS: From admission to discharge, nurse-led care patients showed superior improvements of total self-care abilities compared to usual care patients. In particular, we found improvements in the following categories: mobility, grooming and excretion. Patients with nurse-led care were furthermore less frequently readmitted to hospital compared with the control group patients. PATIENT OR PUBLIC CONTRIBUTION: No patient or public contribution.

Medical patients' affective well-being after emergency department admission: The role of personal and social resources and health-related variables.

BACKGROUND: Medical emergency admissions are critical life events associated with considerable stress. However, research on patients' affective well-being after emergency department (ED) admission is scarce. This study investigated the course of affective well-being of medical patients following an ED admission and examined the role of personal and social resources and health-related variables. METHODS: In this longitudinal survey with a sample of 229 patients with lower respiratory tract infections and cardiac diseases (taken between October 2013 and December 2014), positive and negative affect was measured at ED admission (T1) and at follow-up after 7 days (T2), and 30 days (T3). The role of personal and social resources (emotional stability, trait resilience, affect state, and social support) as well as health-related variables (self-rated health, multimorbidity, and psychological comorbidity) in patients' affective well-being was examined by controlling for demographic characteristics using regression analyses. RESULTS: The strength of the inverse correlation between positive and negative affect decreased over time. In addition to health-related variables, higher negative affect was predicted by higher psychological comorbidity over time (T1-T3). In turn, lower positive affect was predicted by lower self-rated health (T1-T2) and higher multimorbidity (T3). In terms of personal and social resources, lower negative affect was predicted by higher emotional stability (T2), whereas higher positive affect was predicted by stronger social support (T1-T2). CONCLUSION: Knowledge about psychosocial determinants-personal and social resources and health-related variables-of patients' affective well-being following ED admission is essential for designing more effective routine screening and treatment.

Vitamin D Deficiency Strongly Predicts Adverse Medical Outcome Across Different Medical Inpatient Populations: Results From a Prospective Study.

Vitamin D deficiency has been associated with several adverse outcomes mainly in the outpatient setting. The objective of this study was to examine the prevalence of vitamin D deficiency and its association with risk of adverse clinical outcomes in a large prospective cohort of medical inpatients.We collected clinical data and measured 25(OH)D levels in adult medical patients upon hospital admission and followed them for 30 days. Regression analyses adjusted for age, gender, comorbidities, and main medical diagnosis were performed to study the effect of vitamin D deficiency on several hospital outcomes.Of 4257 included patients, 1510 (35.47%) had 25(OH)D levels of 25 to 50 nmol/L (vitamin D insufficiency) and 797 (18.72%) had levels of <25nmol/L (severe deficiency). Vitamin D insufficiency and severe deficiency were associated (OR/HR, 95%CI) with an increased risk of 30-day mortality (OR 1.70, 1.22-2.36 and 2.70, 1.22-2.36) and increased length of stay (HR 0.88, 0.81-0.97 and 0.72, 0.65-0.81). Severe deficiency was associated with risk of falls (OR 1.77, 1.18-2.63), impaired Barthel index (OR 1.80, 1.42-2.28), and impairment in quality of life. Most associations remained robust after multivariate adjustment and in subgroups stratified by gender, age, comorbidities, and main diagnoses (P for interaction >0.05).In this comprehensive and large medical inpatient cohort, vitamin D deficiency was highly prevalent and strongly associated with adverse clinical outcome. Interventional research is urgently needed to prove the effect of vitamin D supplementation on these outcomes.

Use of procalcitonin, C-reactive protein and white blood cell count to distinguish between lower limb erysipelas and deep vein thrombosis in the emergency department: A prospective observational study.

Early differentiation of erysipelas from deep vein thrombosis (DVT) based solely on clinical signs and symptoms is challenging. There is a lack of data regarding the usefulness of the inflammatory biomarkers procalcitonin (PCT), C-reactive protein (CRP) and white blood cell (WBC) count in the diagnosis of localized cutaneous infections. Herein, we investigated the diagnostic value of inflammatory markers in a prospective at-risk patient population. This is an observational quality control study including consecutive patients presenting with a final diagnosis of either erysipelas or DVT. The association of PCT (µg/L) and CRP (mg/L) levels and WBC counts (g/L) with the primary outcome was assessed using logistic regression models with area under the receiver-operator curve. Forty-eight patients (erysipelas, n = 31; DVT, n = 17) were included. Compared with patients with DVT, those with erysipelas had significantly higher PCT concentrations. No significant differences in CRP concentrations and WBC counts were found between the two groups. At a PCT threshold of 0.1 µg/L or more, specificity and positive predictive values (PPV) for erysipelas were 82.4% and 85.7%, respectively, and increased to 100% and 100% at a threshold of more than 0.25 µg/L. Levels of PCT also correlated with the severity of erysipelas, with a stepwise increase according to systemic inflammatory response syndrome criteria. We found a high discriminatory value of PCT for differentiation between erysipelas and DVT, in contrast to other commonly used inflammatory biomarkers. Whether the use of PCT levels for early differentiation of erysipelas from DVT reduces unnecessary antibiotic exposure needs to be assessed in an interventional trial.

Procalcitonin improves the Glasgow Prognostic Score for outcome prediction in emergency patients with cancer: a cohort study.

The Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS) is useful for predicting long-term mortality in cancer patients. Our aim was to validate the GPS in ED patients with different cancer-related urgency and investigate whether biomarkers would improve its accuracy. We followed consecutive medical patients presenting with a cancer-related medical urgency to a tertiary care hospital in Switzerland. Upon admission, we measured procalcitonin (PCT), white blood cell count, urea, 25-hydroxyvitamin D, corrected calcium, C-reactive protein, and albumin and calculated the GPS. Of 341 included patients (median age 68 years, 61% males), 81 (23.8%) died within 30 days after admission. The GPS showed moderate prognostic accuracy (AUC 0.67) for mortality. Among the different biomarkers, PCT provided the highest prognostic accuracy (odds ratio 1.6 (95% confidence interval 1.3 to 1.9), P < 0.001, AUC 0.69) and significantly improved the GPS to a combined AUC of 0.74 (P = 0.007). Considering all investigated biomarkers, the AUC increased to 0.76 (P < 0.001). The GPS performance was significantly improved by the addition of PCT and other biomarkers for risk stratification in ED cancer patients. The benefit of early risk stratification by the GPS in combination with biomarkers from different pathways should be investigated in further interventional trials.

Can We Reduce Negative Blood Cultures With Clinical Scores and Blood Markers? Results From an Observational Cohort Study.

Only a small proportion of blood cultures routinely performed in emergency department (ED) patients is positive. Multiple clinical scores and biomarkers have previously been examined for their ability to predict bacteremia. Conclusive clinical validation of these scores and biomarkers is essential.This observational cohort study included patients with suspected infection who had blood culture sampling at ED admission. We assessed 5 clinical scores and admission concentrations of procalcitonin (PCT), C-reactive protein (CRP), lymphocyte and white blood cell counts, the neutrophil-lymphocyte count ratio (NLCR), and the red blood cell distribution width (RDW). Two independent physicians assessed true blood culture positivity. We used logistic regression models with area under the curve (AUC) analysis.Of 1083 patients, 104 (9.6%) had positive blood cultures. Of the clinical scores, the Shapiro score performed best (AUC 0.729). The best biomarkers were PCT (AUC 0.803) and NLCR (AUC 0.700). Combining the Shapiro score with PCT levels significantly increased the AUC to 0.827. Limiting blood cultures only to patients with either a Shapiro score of ≥4 or PCT > 0.1 µg/L would reduce negative sampling by 20.2% while still identifying 100% of positive cultures. Similarly, a Shapiro score ≥3 or PCT >0.25 µg/L would reduce cultures by 41.7% and still identify 96.1% of positive blood cultures.Combination of the Shapiro score with admission levels of PCT can help reduce unnecessary blood cultures with minimal false negative rates.The study was registered on January 9, 2013 at the 'ClinicalTrials.gov' registration web site (NCT01768494).

Association of nutritional risk and adverse medical outcomes across different medical inpatient populations.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to examine the prevalence of nutritional risk and its association with multiple adverse clinical outcomes in a large cohort of acutely ill medical inpatients from a Swiss tertiary care hospital. METHODS: We prospectively followed consecutive adult medical inpatients for 30 d. Multivariate regression models were used to investigate the association of the initial Nutritional Risk Score (NRS 2002) with mortality, impairment in activities of daily living (Barthel Index <95 points), hospital length of stay, hospital readmission rates, and quality of life (QoL; adapted from EQ5 D); all parameters were measured at 30 d. RESULTS: Of 3186 patients (mean age 71 y, 44.7% women), 887 (27.8%) were at risk for malnutrition with an NRS ≥3 points. We found strong associations (odds ratio/hazard ratio [OR/HR], 95% confidence interval [CI]) between nutritional risk and mortality (OR/HR, 7.82; 95% CI, 6.04-10.12), impaired Barthel Index (OR/HR, 2.56; 95% CI, 2.12-3.09), time to hospital discharge (OR/HR, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.43-0.52), hospital readmission (OR/HR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.08-1.97), and all five dimensions of QoL measures. Associations remained significant after adjustment for sociodemographic characteristics, comorbidities, and medical diagnoses. Results were robust in subgroup analysis with evidence of effect modification (P for interaction < 0.05) based on age and main diagnosis groups. CONCLUSION: Nutritional risk is significant in acutely ill medical inpatients and is associated with increased medical resource use, adverse clinical outcomes, and impairments in functional ability and QoL. Randomized trials are needed to evaluate evidence-based preventive and treatment strategies focusing on nutritional factors to improve outcomes in these high-risk patients.