Mepolizumab incompletely suppresses clinical flares in a pilot study of episodic angioedema with eosinophilia.

BACKGROUND: Episodic angioedema with eosinophilia (EAE) is a rare multilineage cyclic syndrome of unknown etiology characterized by episodes of angioedema, myalgia, fatigue, and fever that occur every 3 to 8 weeks and resolve between episodes without therapy. Cyclic elevations in serum IL-5 levels and neutrophils precede the increase in absolute eosinophil count (AEC) in most patients. OBJECTIVE: We sought to assess the role of IL-5-driven eosinophilia in the clinical manifestations of EAE. METHODS: An open-label pilot study of mepolizumab (700 mg intravenously monthly for 3 months followed by sequential dose reduction to the Food and Drug Administration-approved dose of 300 mg subcutaneously monthly) was conducted. The primary end point was reduction in the number and severity of clinical symptoms as assessed by patient-reported symptom questionnaires. Secondary end points were greater than or equal to 75% reduction in peak AEC after 1 dose of mepolizumab and sustained reduction in AEC after 3 doses of mepolizumab. Exploratory end points included effects of mepolizumab treatment on other cell lineages (numbers and surface marker expression), levels of plasma mediators, and biomarkers of eosinophil activation. RESULTS: Four female and 1 male (median age, 45 years) participants with EAE were enrolled. None of the 5 participants experienced a reduction in the number of symptomatic flares on mepolizumab therapy, and 1 participant withdrew before study completion because of lack of improvement. Peak AEC was reduced by 75% or more in 3 participants after the first dose of mepolizumab and in 4 participants after 3 doses. CONCLUSIONS: In a small cohort of participants with EAE, mepolizumab was unsuccessful in substantially reducing clinical symptoms despite reduction in AEC.

Visceral Leishmaniasis-Human Immunodeficiency Virus-Coinfected Patients Are Highly Infectious to Sandflies in an Endemic Area in India.

In an area endemic with Indian visceral leishmaniasis (VL), we performed direct xenodiagnosis to evaluate the transmission of Leishmania donovani from patients with VL-human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) coinfection to the vector sandflies, Phlebotomus argentipes. Fourteen patients with confirmed VL-HIV coinfection, with a median parasitemia of 42 205 parasite genome/mL of blood, were exposed to 732 laboratory-reared pathogen-free female P argentipes sandflies on their lower arms and legs. Microscopy revealed that 16.66% (122/732) of blood-fed flies were xenodiagnosis positive. Notably, 93% (13/14) of the VL-HIV group infected the flies, as confirmed by quantitative polymerase chain reaction and/or microscopy, and were 3 times more infectious than those who had VL without HIV.

Durability of Protection Against COVID-19 Through the Delta Surge for the NVX-CoV2373 Vaccine.

BACKGROUND: Protein-based vaccines for COVID-19 provide a traditional vaccine platform with long-lasting protection for non-SARS-CoV-2 pathogens and may complement messenger RNA vaccines as a booster dose. While NVX-CoV2373 showed substantial early efficacy, the durability of protection has not been delineated. METHODS: The PREVENT-19 vaccine trial employed a blinded crossover design; the original placebo arm received NVX-CoV2373 after efficacy was established. Using novel statistical methods that integrate surveillance data of circulating strains with post-crossover cases, we estimated placebo-controlled vaccine efficacy and durability of NVX-CoV2373 against both pre-Delta and Delta strains of SARS-CoV-2. RESULTS: Vaccine efficacy against pre-Delta strains of COVID-19 was 89% (95% CI: 75%, 95%) and 87% (72%, 94%) at 0 and 90 days after 2 doses of NVX-CoV2373, respectively, with no evidence of waning (p=0.93). Vaccine efficacy against the Delta strain was 88% (71%, 95%), 82% (56%, 92%), and 77% (44%, 90%) at 40, 120, and 180 days, respectively, with evidence of waning (p<0.01). In sensitivity analyses, the estimated Delta vaccine efficacy at 120 days ranged from 66% (15%, 86%) to 89% (74%, 95%) per various assumptions of the surveillance data. CONCLUSION: NVX-CoV2373 has high initial efficacy against pre-Delta and Delta strains of COVID-19 with little evidence of waning for pre-Delta strains through 90 days and moderate waning against Delta strains over 180 days.

Vaccine efficacy at a point in time.

Vaccine trials are generally designed to assess efficacy on clinical disease. The vaccine effect on infection, while important both as a proxy for transmission and to describe a vaccine's entire effects, requires frequent (e.g., twice a week) longitudinal sampling to capture all infections. Such sampling may not always be feasible. A logistically easy approach is to collect a sample to test for infection at a regularly scheduled visit. Such point or cross-sectional sampling does not permit estimation of classic vaccine efficacy on infection, as long duration infections are sampled with higher probability. Building on work by Rinta-Kokko and others (2009) and Lipsitch and Kahn (2021), we evaluate proxies of the vaccine effect on transmission at a point in time; the vaccine efficacy on prevalent infection and on prevalent viral load, VE$_{\rm PI}$ and VE$_{\rm PVL}$, respectively. Longer infections with higher viral loads should have more transmission potential and prevalent vaccine efficacy naturally captures this aspect. We demonstrate how these parameters obtain from an underlying proportional hazards model for infection and allow for waning efficacy on infection, duration, and viral load. We estimate these parameters based on regression models with either repeated cross-sectional sampling or frequent longitudinal sampling. We evaluate the methods by simulation and analyze a phase III vaccine trial with polymerase chain reaction (PCR) cross-sectional sampling for subclinical infection.

Causal interpretation of the hazard ratio in randomized clinical trials.

BACKGROUND: Although the hazard ratio has no straightforward causal interpretation, clinical trialists commonly use it as a measure of treatment effect. METHODS: We review the definition and examples of causal estimands. We discuss the causal interpretation of the hazard ratio from a two-arm randomized clinical trial, and the implications of proportional hazards assumptions in the context of potential outcomes. We illustrate the application of these concepts in a synthetic model and in a model of the time-varying effects of COVID-19 vaccination. RESULTS: We define causal estimands as having either an individual-level or population-level interpretation. Difference-in-expectation estimands are both individual-level and population-level estimands, whereas without strong untestable assumptions the causal rate ratio and hazard ratio have only population-level interpretations. We caution users against making an incorrect individual-level interpretation, emphasizing that in general a hazard ratio does not on average change each individual's hazard by a factor. We discuss a potentially valid interpretation of the constant hazard ratio as a population-level causal effect under the proportional hazards assumption. CONCLUSION: We conclude that the population-level hazard ratio remains a useful estimand, but one must interpret it with appropriate attention to the underlying causal model. This is especially important for interpreting hazard ratios over time.

Urine eosinophil-derived neurotoxin: A potential marker of activity in select eosinophilic disorders.

BACKGROUND: Biomarkers of eosinophilic disease activity, especially in the context of novel therapies that reduce blood eosinophil counts, are an unmet need. Absolute eosinophil count (AEC) does not accurately reflect tissue eosinophilia or eosinophil activation. Therefore, the aims of this study were to compare the reliability of plasma and urine eosinophil major basic protein 1, eosinophil cationic protein, eosinophil-derived neurotoxin (EDN), and eosinophil peroxidase measurement and to evaluate the usefulness of eosinophil granule protein (EGP) measurement for the assessment of disease activity in patients with eosinophil-associated diseases treated with mepolizumab, benralizumab, or dexpramipexole. METHODS: Eosinophil granule protein concentrations were measured in serum, plasma, and urine from healthy volunteers and patients with hypereosinophilic syndrome (HES), eosinophilic granulomatosis with polyangiitis (EGPA), and eosinophilic asthma using a multiplex assay. RESULTS: Urine EGP concentrations remained stable, whereas serum and plasma EGP concentrations increased significantly with delayed processing. Plasma (p) EDN, but not urine (u) EDN, concentration correlated with AEC and negatively correlated with prednisone dose. Both pEDN and uEDN decreased significantly following treatment of HES patients with benralizumab and EGPA patients with mepolizumab. uEDN appeared to increase with clinical relapse in both patient groups. CONCLUSIONS: Measurement of EGP in urine is noninvasive and unaffected by cellular lysis. Although plasma and urine EDN concentrations showed a similar pattern following benralizumab and mepolizumab treatment, the lack of correlation between AEC or prednisone dose and uEDN concentrations suggests that measurement of uEDN may provide a potential biomarker of disease activity in patients with HES and EGPA.

Assessment of precision in growth inhibition assay (GIA) using human anti-PfRH5 antibodies.

BACKGROUND: For blood-stage malaria vaccine development, the in vitro growth inhibition assay (GIA) has been widely used to evaluate functionality of vaccine-induced antibodies (Ab), and Plasmodium falciparum reticulocyte-binding protein homolog 5 (RH5) is a leading blood-stage antigen. However, precision, also called "error of assay (EoA)", in GIA readouts and the source of EoA has not been evaluated systematically. METHODS: In the Main GIA experiment, 4 different cultures of P. falciparum 3D7 parasites were prepared with red blood cells (RBC) collected from 4 different donors. For each culture, 7 different anti-RH5 Ab (either monoclonal or polyclonal Ab) were tested by GIA at two concentrations on three different days (168 data points). To evaluate sources of EoA in % inhibition in GIA (%GIA), a linear model fit was conducted including donor (source of RBC) and day of GIA as independent variables. In addition, 180 human anti-RH5 polyclonal Ab were tested in a Clinical GIA experiment, where each Ab was tested at multiple concentrations in at least 3 independent GIAs using different RBCs (5,093 data points). The standard deviation (sd) in %GIA and in GIA50 (Ab concentration that gave 50%GIA) readouts, and impact of repeat assays on 95% confidence interval (95%CI) of these readouts was estimated. RESULTS: The Main GIA experiment revealed that the RBC donor effect was much larger than the day effect, and an obvious donor effect was also observed in the Clinical GIA experiment. Both %GIA and log-transformed GIA50 data reasonably fit a constant sd model, and sd of %GIA and log-transformed GIA50 measurements were calculated as 7.54 and 0.206, respectively. Taking the average of three repeat assays (using three different RBCs) reduces the 95%CI width in %GIA or in GIA50 measurements by ~ half compared to a single assay. CONCLUSIONS: The RBC donor effect (donor-to-donor variance on the same day) in GIA was much bigger than the day effect (day-to-day variance using the same donor's RBC) at least for the RH5 Ab evaluated in this study; thus, future GIA studies should consider the donor effect. In addition, the 95%CI for %GIA and GIA50 shown here help when comparing GIA results from different samples/groups/studies; therefore, this study supports future malaria blood-stage vaccine development.

Confidence intervals for prevalence estimates from complex surveys with imperfect assays.

There are established methods for estimating disease prevalence with associated confidence intervals for complex surveys with perfect assays, or simple random sample surveys with imperfect assays. We develop and study methods for the complicated case of complex surveys with imperfect assays. The new methods use the melding method to combine gamma intervals for directly standardized rates and established adjustments for imperfect assays by estimating sensitivity and specificity. One of the new methods appears to have at least nominal coverage in all simulated scenarios. We compare our new methods to established methods in special cases (complex surveys with perfect assays or simple surveys with imperfect assays). In some simulations, our methods appear to guarantee coverage, while competing methods have much lower than nominal coverage, especially when overall prevalence is very low. In other settings, our methods are shown to have higher than nominal coverage. We apply our method to a seroprevalence survey of SARS-CoV-2 in undiagnosed adults in the United States between May and July 2020.

Development of Inapparent Dengue Associated With Increased Antibody Levels to Aedes aegypti Salivary Proteins: A Longitudinal Dengue Cohort in Cambodia.

BACKGROUND: We established the first prospective cohort to understand how infection with dengue virus is influenced by vector-specific determinants such as humoral immunity to Aedes aegypti salivary proteins. METHODS: Children aged 2-9 years were enrolled in the PAGODAS (Pediatric Assessment Group of Dengue and Aedes Saliva) cohort with informed consent by their guardians. Children were followed semi-annually for antibodies to dengue and to proteins in Ae. aegypti salivary gland homogenate using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays and dengue-specific neutralization titers. Children presented with fever at any time for dengue testing. RESULTS: From 13 July to 30 August 2018, we enrolled 771 children. At baseline, 22% (173/770) had evidence of neutralizing antibodies to 1 or more dengue serotypes. By April 2020, 51 children had symptomatic dengue while 148 dengue-naive children had inapparent dengue defined by neutralization assays. In a multivariate model, individuals with higher antibodies to Ae. aegypti salivary proteins were 1.5 times more likely to have dengue infection (hazard ratio [HR], 1.47 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 1.05-2.06]; P = .02), particularly individuals with inapparent dengue (HR, 1.64 [95% CI, 1.12-2.41]; P = .01). CONCLUSIONS: High levels of seropositivity to Ae. aegypti salivary proteins are associated with future development of dengue infection, primarily inapparent, in dengue-naive Cambodian children. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT03534245.

Benralizumab for PDGFRA-Negative Hypereosinophilic Syndrome.

BACKGROUND: Hypereosinophilic syndrome is a group of diseases defined by marked eosinophilia in blood or tissue and eosinophil-related clinical manifestations. Benralizumab is a monoclonal antibody against interleukin-5 receptor α, which is expressed on human eosinophils. METHODS: In this randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 2 trial, we administered a series of three monthly subcutaneous injections of either benralizumab (at a dose of 30 mg) or placebo in 20 symptomatic patients who had PDGFRA-negative hypereosinophilic syndrome and an absolute eosinophil count of at least 1000 cells per cubic millimeter; all the patients were receiving stable therapy (drugs or dietary changes) for this disease. This regimen was followed by an open-label phase, during which the patient's background therapy could be tapered as tolerated, and an extension phase. The primary end point of the randomized phase was a reduction of at least 50% in the absolute eosinophil count at week 12. RESULTS: During the randomized phase, the primary end point occurred in more patients in the benralizumab group than in the placebo group (9 of 10 patients [90%] vs. 3 of 10 patients [30%], P = 0.02). During the open-label phase, clinical and hematologic responses were observed in 17 of 19 patients (89%) and were sustained for 48 weeks in 14 of 19 patients (74%); in the latter group, in 9 of 14 patients (64%), background therapies could be tapered. Bone marrow and tissue eosinophilia were also suppressed with benralizumab therapy. The most common drug-related adverse events, headache and an elevated lactate dehydrogenase level, occurred in 32% of the patients after the first dose of benralizumab and resolved within 48 hours in all patients. Other adverse events occurred with similar frequency in the two groups. Of the many potential predictors of response that were examined, only clinical disease subtype appeared to be associated with the initial response or relapse. CONCLUSIONS: In this small phase 2 trial, patients with PDGFRA-negative hypereosinophilic syndrome who received benralizumab for 12 weeks had lower absolute eosinophil counts than those who received placebo. During the open-label phase, clinical and hematologic responses were sustained for 48 weeks in 74% of the patients. Adverse events did not limit treatment. (Funded by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases; ClinicalTrials.gov numbers, NCT00001406 and NCT02130882.).

Clinical Endpoints for Evaluating Efficacy in COVID-19 Vaccine Trials.

Several vaccine candidates to protect against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection or coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have entered or will soon enter large-scale, phase 3, placebo-controlled randomized clinical trials. To facilitate harmonized evaluation and comparison of the efficacy of these vaccines, a general set of clinical endpoints is proposed, along with considerations to guide the selection of the primary endpoints on the basis of clinical and statistical reasoning. The plausibility that vaccine protection against symptomatic COVID-19 could be accompanied by a shift toward more SARS-CoV-2 infections that are asymptomatic is highlighted, as well as the potential implications of such a shift.

A Deferred-Vaccination Design to Assess Durability of COVID-19 Vaccine Effect After the Placebo Group Is Vaccinated.

Multiple candidate vaccines to prevent COVID-19 have entered large-scale phase 3 placebo-controlled randomized clinical trials, and several have demonstrated substantial short-term efficacy. At some point after demonstration of substantial efficacy, placebo recipients should be offered the efficacious vaccine from their trial, which will occur before longer-term efficacy and safety are known. The absence of a placebo group could compromise assessment of longer-term vaccine effects. However, by continuing follow-up after vaccination of the placebo group, this study shows that placebo-controlled vaccine efficacy can be mathematically derived by assuming that the benefit of vaccination over time has the same profile for the original vaccine recipients and the original placebo recipients after their vaccination. Although this derivation provides less precise estimates than would be obtained by a standard trial where the placebo group remains unvaccinated, this proposed approach allows estimation of longer-term effect, including durability of vaccine efficacy and whether the vaccine eventually becomes harmful for some. Deferred vaccination, if done open-label, may lead to riskier behavior in the unblinded original vaccine group, confounding estimates of long-term vaccine efficacy. Hence, deferred vaccination via blinded crossover, where the vaccine group receives placebo and vice versa, would be the preferred way to assess vaccine durability and potential delayed harm. Deferred vaccination allows placebo recipients timely access to the vaccine when it would no longer be proper to maintain them on placebo, yet still allows important insights about immunologic and clinical effectiveness over time.

A Randomized, Placebo-controlled, Double-blind Pilot Study of Single-dose Humanized Anti-IL5 Antibody (Reslizumab) for the Reduction of Eosinophilia Following Diethylcarbamazine Treatment of Loa loa Infection.

BACKGROUND: Diethylcarbamazine citrate (DEC) treatment of loiasis is complicated by adverse reactions that are correlated with the number of circulating microfilariae (mf). The cause of these reactions is unknown, but they are accompanied by a dramatic interleukin-5 (IL-5)-dependent increase in eosinophilia and evidence of eosinophil activation. METHODS: To explore the role of IL-5 driven eosinophilia in post-DEC reactions, 8 adults with confirmed loiasis and <5000 mf/mL blood were enrolled in a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of the humanized anti-IL-5 antibody, reslizumab, (1.0 mg/kg IV) administered 3 to 7 days prior to initiation of DEC treatment (9 mg/kg/day for 21 days). The primary endpoint was the reduction in absolute eosinophil count (AEC) during the first week of DEC treatment. RESULTS: Baseline characteristics were comparable between the two groups. Single dose reslizumab lowered the AEC by 77% prior to initiation of DEC therapy (vs. 12% in the placebo group, P < .05). More importantly, AEC remained below baseline in the first week of DEC treatment in all subjects who received reslizumab and in none of the placebo subjects. Mf clearance occurred within 2 days of initiation of DEC in all 7 mf-positive subjects. Mild to moderate adverse events were seen in all 8 subjects and were not significantly different between the groups. CONCLUSIONS: In summary, although reslizumab was able to blunt peripheral eosinophilia post-DEC treatment in subjects with loiasis and had no effect on microfilarial clearance, the reduction in AEC appeared to have been insufficient to prevent post-treatment AEs.

Confidence intervals for difference in proportions for matched pairs compatible with exact McNemar's or sign tests.

For testing with paired data (eg, twins randomized between two treatments), a simple test is the sign test, where we test if the distribution of the sign of the differences in responses between the two treatments within pairs is more often positive (favoring one treatment) or negative (favoring the other). When the responses are binary, this reduces to a McNemar-type test, and the calculations are the same. Although it is easy to calculate an exact P-value by conditioning on the total number of discordant pairs, the accompanying confidence interval on a parameter of interest (proportion positive minus proportion negative) is not straightforward. Effect estimates and confidence intervals are important for interpretation because it is possible that the treatment helps a very small proportion of the population yet gives a highly significant effect. We construct a confidence interval that is compatible with an exact sign test, meaning the 100 (1-α)% interval excludes the null hypothesis of equality of proportions if and only if the associated exact sign test rejects at level α . We conjecture that the proposed confidence intervals guarantee nominal coverage, and we support that conjecture with extensive numerical calculations, but we have no mathematical proof to show guaranteed coverage. We have written and made available the function mcnemarExactDP in the exact2x2 R package and the function signTest in the asht R package to perform the methods described in this article.

Artemisinin resistance phenotypes and K13 inheritance in a Plasmodium falciparum cross and Aotus model.

Concerns about malaria parasite resistance to treatment with artemisinin drugs (ARTs) have grown with findings of prolonged parasite clearance t1/2s (>5 h) and their association with mutations in Plasmodium falciparum Kelch-propeller protein K13. Here, we describe a P. falciparum laboratory cross of K13 C580Y mutant with C580 wild-type parasites to investigate ART response phenotypes in vitro and in vivo. After genotyping >400 isolated progeny, we evaluated 20 recombinants in vitro: IC50 measurements of dihydroartemisinin were at similar low nanomolar levels for C580Y- and C580-type progeny (mean ratio, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.62-1.61), whereas, in a ring-stage survival assay, the C580Y-type progeny had 19.6-fold (95% CI, 9.76-39.2) higher average counts. In splenectomized Aotus monkeys treated with three daily doses of i.v. artesunate, t1/2 calculations by three different methods yielded mean differences of 0.01 h (95% CI, -3.66 to 3.67), 0.80 h (95% CI, -0.92 to 2.53), and 2.07 h (95% CI, 0.77-3.36) between C580Y and C580 infections. Incidences of recrudescence were 57% in C580Y (4 of 7) versus 70% in C580 (7 of 10) infections (-13% difference; 95% CI, -58% to 35%). Allelic substitution of C580 in a C580Y-containing progeny clone (76H10) yielded a transformant (76H10C580Rev) that, in an infected monkey, recrudesced regularly 13 times over 500 d. Frequent recrudescences of ART-treated P. falciparum infections occur with or without K13 mutations and emphasize the need for improved partner drugs to effectively eliminate the parasites that persist through the ART component of combination therapy.

Strongyloides stercoralis Coinfection Is Associated With Greater Disease Severity, Higher Bacterial Burden, and Elevated Plasma Matrix Metalloproteinases in Pulmonary Tuberculosis.

BACKGROUND: Helminths and tuberculosis (TB) largely overlap at the population level. Whether helminth infections influence disease severity and bacterial burdens in TB is not well understood. METHODS: This study was conducted to examine the disease severity in a cohort of pulmonary TB (PTB) individuals with (Ss+) or without (Ss-) seropositivity for Strongyloides stercoralis infection. RESULTS: Ss+ was associated with increased risk of cavitation (odds ratio [OR], 4.54; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.33-9.04; P < .0001) and bilateral lung involvement (OR, 5.97; 95% CI, 3.03-12.09; P < .0001) in PTB individuals. Ss+ was also associated with higher bacterial burdens (OR, 7.57; 95% CI, 4.18-14.05; P < .0001) in PTB individuals. After multivariate analysis adjusting for covariates, Ss+ was still associated with greater risk of cavitation (adjusted OR [aOR], 3.99; 95% CI, 1.73-9.19; P = .0014), bilateral lung involvement (aOR, 4.09; 95% CI, 1.78-9.41; P = .0011), and higher bacterial burden (aOR, 9.32; 95% CI, 6.30-13.96; P < .0001). Finally, Ss+ was also associated with higher plasma levels of matrix metalloproteinases ([MMP]-1, -2, -7, -8, and -9) in PTB individuals. CONCLUSIONS: Therefore, our data demonstrate that coexistent Ss infection is associated with greater disease severity and higher bacterial burden in PTB. Our data also demonstrate enhanced plasma levels of MMPs in coinfected individuals, suggesting a plausible biological mechanism for these effects.

Effect of Delaying Treatment on Efficacy of Ciprofloxacin and Levofloxacin in the African Green Monkey Model of Pneumonic Plague.

BACKGROUND: Ciprofloxacin and levofloxacin, 2 fluoroquinolone antimicrobials, are ≥90% effective for the treatment of inhalational plague when administered within 2-6 hours of fever onset in African green monkeys (AGM). Based on data in the AGM model, these antimicrobials were approved under the Food and Drug Administration's Animal Efficacy Rule. However, that data did not address the issue of how long treatment with these antimicrobials would remain effective after fever onset. METHODS: The AGM model of pneumonic plague was used to explore the effect of delaying treatment with ciprofloxacin and levofloxacin on efficacy. In 2 studies, AGMs were challenged with inhaled lethal doses of Yersinia pestis. Treatment with ciprofloxacin and levofloxacin was initiated from 0 to up to 30 hours after fever onset. RESULTS: Challenged animals all developed fever within 78 hours and were treated with ciprofloxacin (n = 27) or levofloxacin (n = 29) at various predetermined time points postfever. When administered 10 hours after fever onset, 10 days of ciprofloxacin and levofloxacin treatment remained very effective (90 or 100%, respectively). The efficacy of both antimicrobials declined as treatment initiation was further delayed. Statistical analyses estimated the treatment delay times at which half of the AGMs were no longer expected to survive as 19.7 hours for ciprofloxacin and 26.5 hours for levofloxacin. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates that there is a narrow window following fever onset during which ciprofloxacin and levofloxacin are fully effective treatment options for pneumonic plague in AGMs. Since the timing of disease is similar in humans and AGMs, these AGM data are reasonably likely to predict response times for treatment in humans.

Dexpramipexole as an oral steroid-sparing agent in hypereosinophilic syndromes.

Hypereosinophilic syndromes (HESs) are a heterogeneous group of disorders characterized by peripheral eosinophilia and eosinophil-related end organ damage. Whereas most patients respond to glucocorticoid (GC) therapy, high doses are often necessary, and side effects are common. Dexpramipexole (KNS-760704), an orally bioavailable synthetic aminobenzothiazole, showed an excellent safety profile and was coincidentally noted to significantly decrease absolute eosinophil counts (AECs) in a phase 3 trial for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. This proof-of-concept study was designed to evaluate dexpramipexole (150 mg orally twice daily) as a GC-sparing agent in HESs. Dual primary end points were (1) the proportion of subjects with ≥50% decrease in the minimum effective GC dose (MED) to maintain AEC <1000/µL and control clinical symptoms, and (2) the MED after 12 weeks of dexpramipexole (MEDD) as a percentage of the MED at week 0. Out of 10 subjects, 40% (95% confidence interval [CI], 12%, 74%) achieved a ≥50% reduction in MED, and the MEDD/MED ratio was significantly <100% (median, 66%; 95% CI, 6%, 98%; P = .03). All adverse events were self-limited, and none led to drug discontinuation. Affected tissue biopsy samples in 2 subjects showed normalization of pathology and depletion of eosinophils on dexpramipexole. Bone marrow biopsy samples after 12 weeks of dexpramipexole showed selective absence of mature eosinophils in responders. Dexpramipexole appears promising as a GC-sparing agent without apparent toxicity in a subset of subjects with GC-responsive HESs. Although the exact mechanism of action is unknown, preliminary data suggest that dexpramipexole may affect eosinophil maturation in the bone marrow. This study was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT02101138.

Analysis of ordered composite endpoints.

Composite endpoints are frequently used in clinical trials, but simple approaches, such as the time to first event, do not reflect any ordering among the endpoints. However, some endpoints, such as mortality, are worse than others. A variety of procedures have been proposed to reflect the severity of the individual endpoints such as pairwise ranking approaches, the win ratio, and the desirability of outcome ranking. When patients have different lengths of follow-up, however, ranking can be difficult and proposed methods do not naturally lead to regression approaches and require specialized software. This paper defines an ordering score O to operationalize the patient ranking implied by hierarchical endpoints. We show how differential right censoring of follow-up corresponds to multiple interval censoring of the ordering score allowing standard software for survival models to be used to calculate the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimators (NPMLEs) of different measures. Additionally, if one assumes that the ordering score is transformable to an exponential random variable, a semiparametric regression is obtained, which is equivalent to the proportional hazards model subject to multiple interval censoring. Standard software can be used for estimation. We show that the NPMLE can be poorly behaved compared to the simple estimators in staggered entry trials. We also show that the semiparametric estimator can be more efficient than simple estimators and explore how standard Cox regression maneuvers can be used to assess model fit, allow for flexible generalizations, and assess interactions of covariates with treatment. We analyze a trial of short versus long-term antiplatelet therapy using our methods.

Harmonization study between three laboratories for expression of malaria vaccine clinical trial IgG antibody ELISA data in µg/mL.

BACKGROUND: The ability to report vaccine-induced IgG responses in terms of µg/mL, as opposed arbitrary units (AU), enables a more informed interpretation of the magnitude of the immune response, and better comparison between vaccines targeting different antigens. However, these interpretations rely on the accuracy of the methodology, which is used to generate ELISA data in µg/mL. In a previous clinical trial of a vaccine targeting the apical membrane antigen 1 (AMA1) from Plasmodium falciparum, three laboratories (Oxford, NIH and WRAIR) reported ELISA data in µg/mL that were correlated but not concordant. This current study sought to harmonize the methodology used to generate a conversion factor (CF) for ELISA analysis of human anti-AMA1 IgG responses across the three laboratories. METHODS: Purified IgG was distributed to the three laboratories and, following a set protocol provided by NIH, AMA1-specific human IgG was affinity purified. A new "harmonized CF" was generated by each laboratory using their in-house ELISA, and the original clinical trial ELISA data were re-analysed accordingly. RESULTS: Statistical analysis showed that the data remained highly correlated across all three laboratories, although only Oxford and NIH were able to harmonize their CF for ELISA and generate concordant data. CONCLUSIONS: This study enabled two out of the three laboratories to harmonize their µg/mL readouts for the human anti-AMA1 IgG ELISA, but results reported from WRAIR are ~ twofold higher. Given the need to validate such information for each species and antigen of interest, it is important to bear in mind these likely differences when interpreting µg/mL ELISA data in the future.