Carry-over effects of seasonal migration on reproductive success through breeding site retention in a partially migratory bird.

Understanding the maintenance and dynamics of phenotypic polymorphisms requires unpicking key ecological mechanisms shaping the fitness costs and benefits of expressing alternative phenotypes, generating selection. Seasonal migration versus year-round residence expressed in partially migratory populations represents one common polymorphism that can experience strong selection through differential reproductive success. Yet, key hypothesised pathways that could generate such selection remain to be empirically tested. One hypothesis is that migratory tactics affect subsequent reproductive success through carry-over effects on breeding site retention and resulting breeding dispersal. By remaining in breeding areas all year round, residents could retain their preferred breeding site between years, and consequently have higher reproductive success. Conversely, migrants that escape harsh non-breeding season conditions could return in better condition, with high resource holding potential, and outcompete residents to retain their site. Such effects could further depend on migration timing and vary between years. Yet, such pathways have not been quantified, precluding empirical parameterisation of partial migration theory. We used 4 years of breeding and non-breeding season data from partially migratory European shags (Gulosus aristotelis) to test whether the three most frequent migratory tactics in this population (full resident, early migrant departing soon after breeding, and late migrant departing in late autumn) differed in their breeding site retention; whether site retention predicted reproductive success; and hence whether effects of migratory tactic on reproductive success were explicable through site retention. Overall, residents were much more likely to retain their breeding site between years than both early and late migrants, and site retention was associated with increased reproductive success. Yet, these effects varied somewhat among years: late migrants were always least likely to retain their site but had variable relative reproductive success. Path analyses revealed that effects of migratory tactic on reproductive success were only partly attributable to breeding site retention. These results indicate that multiple mechanisms underlie reproductive selection on migratory tactics, potentially contributing to maintaining behavioural polymorphisms. Yet, the clear associations between migratory tactics and local breeding dispersal reveal that these movements can be strongly interlinked across seasons, shaping overall spatioseasonal dynamics in partially migratory systems.

Integrating advances in population and evolutionary ecology with conservation strategy through long-term studies of red-billed choughs.

Conceptual and methodological advances in population and evolutionary ecology are often pursued with the ambition that they will help identify demographic, ecological and genetic constraints on population growth rate (λ), and ultimately facilitate evidence-based conservation. However, such advances are often decoupled from conservation practice, impeding translation of scientific understanding into effective conservation and of conservation-motivated research into wider conceptual understanding. We summarise key outcomes from long-term studies of a red-billed chough Pyrrhocorax pyrrhocorax population of conservation concern, where we proactively aimed to achieve the dual and interacting objectives of advancing population and evolutionary ecology and advancing effective conservation. Estimation of means, variances and covariances in key vital rates from individual-based demographic data identified temporal and spatial variation in subadult survival as key constraints on λ, and simultaneously provided new insights into how vital rates can vary as functions of demographic structure, natal conditions and parental life history. Targeted analyses showed that first-year survival increased with prey abundance, implying that food limitation may constrain λ. First-year survival then decreased dramatically, threatening population viability and prompting emergency supplementary feeding interventions. Detailed evaluations suggested that the interventions successfully increased first-year survival in some years and additionally increased adult survival and successful reproduction, thereby feeding back to inform intervention refinements and understanding of complex ecological constraints on λ. Genetic analyses revealed novel evidence of expression of a lethal recessive allele, and demonstrated how critically small effective population size can arise, thereby increasing inbreeding and loss of genetic variation. Population viability analyses parameterised with all available demographic and genetic data showed how ecological and genetic constraints can interact to limit population viability, and identified ecological management as of primacy over genetic management to ensure short-term persistence of the focal population. This case study demonstrates a full iteration through the sequence of primary science, evidence-based intervention, quantitative evaluation and feedback that is advocated in conservation science but still infrequently achieved. It thereby illustrates how pure science advances informed conservation actions to ensure the (short-term) stability of the target population, and how conservation-motivated analyses fed back to advance fundamental understanding of population processes.

Among-individual and within-individual variation in seasonal migration covaries with subsequent reproductive success in a partially migratory bird.

Within-individual and among-individual variation in expression of key environmentally sensitive traits, and associated variation in fitness components occurring within and between years, determine the extents of phenotypic plasticity and selection and shape population responses to changing environments. Reversible seasonal migration is one key trait that directly mediates spatial escape from seasonally deteriorating environments, causing spatio-seasonal population dynamics. Yet, within-individual and among-individual variation in seasonal migration versus residence, and dynamic associations with subsequent reproductive success, have not been fully quantified. We used novel capture-mark-recapture mixture models to assign individual European shags (Phalacrocorax aristotelis) to 'resident', 'early migrant', or 'late migrant' strategies in two consecutive years, using year-round local resightings. We demonstrate substantial among-individual variation in strategy within years, and directional within-individual change between years. Furthermore, subsequent reproductive success varied substantially among strategies, and relationships differed between years; residents and late migrants had highest success in the 2 years, respectively, matching the years in which these strategies were most frequently expressed. These results imply that migratory strategies can experience fluctuating reproductive selection, and that flexible expression of migration can be partially aligned with reproductive outcomes. Plastic seasonal migration could then potentially contribute to adaptive population responses to currently changing forms of environmental seasonality.