Are referrals to hospital from out-of-hours primary care associated with National Early Warning Scores?

BACKGROUND: The National Early Warning Scores (NEWS) is used in various healthcare settings to augment clinical decision making, and there is growing interest in its application in primary care. This research aimed to determine the distribution of NEWS among patients in UK out-of-hours (OOH) general practice and explore the relationship between NEWS and referral of patients to hospital. METHODS: A historical cohort study using routinely collected data from the Birmingham Out-of-hours general practice Research Database. This includes patients who attended a large out-of-hours general practice provider in the West Midlands, UK, between July 2013 and July 2018. All adults who were seen face to face who had a full set of physiological observations recorded were included. NEWS was calculated post hoc, and subsequent hospital referral was the outcome of interest. RESULTS: A NEWS was calculated for 74 914 consultations. 46.9% of patients had a NEWS of 0, while 30.6% had a NEWS of 1. Patients were referred to hospital in 8.5% of all encounters. Only 6.9% (95% CI 6.3% to 7.5%) of the 6878 patients referred to hospital had a NEWS of ≥5. Of the 1509 patients with a NEWS ≥5, 68.6% (95%CI 66.2% to 70.9%) were not referred to hospital. When considering how NEWS was related to hospital referral, the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) for patients seen in their own home was 0.731 (95%CI 0.681 to 0.787). For patient seen in treatment centres, the AUROC was 0.589 (95% CI 0.582 to 0.596). CONCLUSIONS: Patients seen in out-of-hours general practice have low physiological acuity. Those referred to hospital have a slightly higher NEWS overall. NEWS is poorly associated with hospital referral, although the association is stronger for patients seen in at home compared with patients seen in treatment centres. Implementing NEWS-based referral from OOH general practice is likely to increase hospital admissions.

Clinical and Demographic Characteristics Associated With Suboptimal Primary Stroke and Transient Ischemic Attack Prevention: Retrospective Analysis.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Primary prevention of stroke and transient ischemic attack (TIA) is important to reduce the burden of these conditions; however, prescribing of prevention drugs is suboptimal. We aimed to identify individual clinical and demographic characteristics associated with potential missed opportunities for prevention therapy with lipid-lowering, anticoagulant, or antihypertensive drugs before stroke/TIA. METHODS: We analyzed anonymized electronic primary care records from a UK primary care database that covers 561 family practices. Patients with first-ever stroke/TIA, ≥18 years, with diagnosis between January 1, 2009, and December 31, 2013, were included. Missed opportunities for prevention were defined as people with clinical indications for lipid-lowering, anticoagulant, or antihypertensive drugs but not prescribed these drugs before their stroke/TIA. Mixed-effect logistic regression models evaluated the relationship between missed opportunities and individual clinical/demographic characteristics. RESULTS: The inclusion criteria were met by 29 043 people with stroke/TIA. Patients with coronary heart disease, chronic kidney disease, peripheral arterial disease, or diabetes mellitus were at less risk of a missed opportunity for prescription of lipid-lowering and antihypertensive drugs. However, patients with a 10-year cardiovascular disease risk ≥20% but without these diagnoses had increased risk of having a missed opportunity for prescription of lipid-lowering drugs or antihypertensive drugs. Women were less likely to be prescribed anticoagulants but more likely to be prescribed antihypertensive drugs. The elderly (≥85 years of age) were less likely to be prescribed all 3 prevention drugs, compared with people aged 75 to 79 years. CONCLUSIONS: Knowing the patient characteristics predictive of missed opportunities for stroke prevention may help primary care identify and appropriately manage these patients. Improving the management of these groups may reduce their risk and potentially prevent large number of future strokes and TIAs in the population.

Safety-netting advice documentation out-of-hours: a retrospective cohort from 2013 to 2020.

BACKGROUND: Providing safety-netting advice (SNA) in out-of-hours primary care is a recognised standard of safe care but it is not known how frequently this occurs in practice. AIM: Assess the frequency and type of SNA documented in out-of-hours primary care and explore factors associated with its presence. DESIGN AND SETTING: Retrospective cohort using the Birmingham Out-of-hours General Practice Research Database. METHOD: A stratified sample of 30 adult consultation records per month from July 2013 to February 2020 were assessed using a safety-netting coding tool. Associations were tested using linear and logistic regression. RESULTS: The overall frequency of SNA per consultation was 78.0%, increasing from 75.7% (2014) to 81.5% (2019). The proportion of specific SNA and the average number of symptoms patients were told to look out for increased with time. The most common symptom to look out for was if the patients' condition worsened followed by if their symptoms persisted, but only one in five consultations included a time-frame to reconsult for persistent symptoms. SNA was more frequently documented in face-to-face treatment-centre encounters compared to telephone-consultations (Odds Ratio [OR]=1.77, p=0.02), for possible infections (OR=1.53, p=0.006), and less frequently for mental (vs. physical) health consultations (OR=0.33, p=0.002) and where follow-up was planned (OR=0.34, p<0.001). CONCLUSION: The frequency of SNA documented in OOH was higher than previously reported during in-hours care. Over time, the frequency of SNA and proportion that contained specific advice increased, however this study highlights potential consultations where SNA could be improved, such as mental health and telephone consultations.

Presentation and management of insect bites in out-of-hours primary care: a descriptive study.

OBJECTIVES: To describe the population presenting to out-of-hours primary care with insect bites, establish their clinical management and the factors associated with antibiotic prescribing. DESIGN: An observational study using routinely collected data from a large out-of-hours database (BORD, Birmingham Out-of-hours general practice Research Database). SETTING: A large out-of-hour primary care provider in the Midlands region of England. PARTICIPANTS: All patients presenting with insect bites between July 2013 and February 2020 were included comprising 5774 encounters. OUTCOME MEASURES: This cohort was described, and a random subcohort was created for more detailed analysis which established the clinical features of the presenting insect bites. Logistic regression was used to model variables associated with antibiotic prescribing. RESULTS: Of the 5641 encounters solely due to insect bites, 67.1% (95% CI 65.8% to 68.3%) were prescribed antibiotics. General practitioners were less likely to prescribe antibiotics than advanced nurse practitioners (60.5% vs 71.1%, p<0.001) and there was a decreasing trend in antibiotic prescribing as patient deprivation increased. Pain (OR 2.13, 95% CI 1.18 to 3.86), swelling (OR 2.88, 95% CI 1.52 to 5.46) and signs of spreading (OR 3.45, 95% CI 1.54 to 7.70) were associated with an increased frequency of antibiotic prescribing. Extrapolation of the findings give an estimated incidence of insect bite consultations in England of 1.5 million annually. CONCLUSION: Two-thirds of the patients presenting to out-of-hours primary care with insect bites receive antibiotics. While some predictors of prescribing have been found, more research is required to understand the optimal use of antibiotics for this common presentation.

Cohort study investigating gout flares and management in UK general practice.

BACKGROUND: Gout is the most common inflammatory arthritis and is almost exclusively managed in primary care, however the course and severity of the condition is variable and poorly characterised. This research aims improve understanding about the frequency of, and factors associated with, gout flares in the UK and characterise the factors associated with the initiation of ULT. METHODS: Using the Clinical Practice Research Database, patients with a coded incident gout diagnosis without a prior prescription for urate-lowering therapy (ULT) were identified. Gout flares post diagnosis and ULT initiation were identified through prescribing and coded data. Patient characteristics, co-morbidities and co-prescribing were co-variants. Factors associated with gout flares and ULT initiation were analysed using cox-proportional hazard model and logistic regression. RESULTS: Fifty-one thousand seven hundred eighty-four patients were identified: 18,605 (35.9%, 95%CI 35.5-36.3%) had experienced ≥ 1 recurrent flare, 17.4% (95%CI 17.1-17.8%) within 12 months of diagnosis. Male sex, black ethnicity, higher BMI, heart failure, CKD, CVD and diuretic use were associated with flares, with the highest HR seen with high serum urate levels (≥ 540 µmol/L HR 4.63, 95%CI 4.03-5.31). ULT initiation was associated with similar variables, although higher alcohol intake and older age were associated with lower odds of ULT initiation but were not associated with flares. ULT was initiated in 27.7% (95%CI 27.3-28.0%): 5.7% (95%CI 5.5-5.9%) within 12 months of diagnosis. ULT initiation rates were higher in patients with recurrent flares. CONCLUSION: Approximately one in six people with incident gout had a second flare within 12 months. Factors associated with flare recurrence and ULT initiation were similar, but ULT initiation occurred later after diagnosis than previously thought.

Factors predicting statin prescribing for primary prevention: a historical cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Initiation of statins for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) should be based on CVD risk estimates, but their use is suboptimal. AIM: To investigate the factors influencing statin prescribing when clinicians code and do not code estimated CVD risk (QRISK2). DESIGN AND SETTING: A historical cohort of patients who had lipid tests in a database (IQVIA Medical Research Data) of UK primary care records. METHOD: The cohort comprised 686 560 entries (lipid test results) between 2012 and 2016 from 383 416 statin-naive patients without previous CVD. Coded QRISK2 scores were extracted, with variables used in calculating QRISK2 and factors that might influence statin prescribing. If a QRISK2 score was not coded, it was calculated post hoc. The outcome was initiation of a statin within 60 days of the lipid test result. RESULTS: Of the entries, 146 693 (21.4%) had a coded QRISK2 score. Statins were initiated in 6.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 6.4% to 6.7%) of those with coded and 4.1% (95% CI = 4.0% to 4.1%) of uncoded QRISK2 (P<0.001). Statin initiations were consistent with National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guideline recommendations in 85.0% (95% CI = 84.2% to 85.8%) of coded and 44.2% (95% CI = 43.5% to 44.9%) of uncoded QRISK2 groups (P<0.001). When coded, QRISK2 score was the main predictor of statin initiation, but total cholesterol was the main predictor when a QRISK2 score was not coded. CONCLUSION: When a QRISK2 score is coded, prescribing is more consistent with guidelines. With no QRISK2 score, prescribing is mainly based on total cholesterol. Using QRISK2 is associated with statin prescribing that is more likely to benefit patients. Promoting the routine CVD risk estimation is essential to optimise decision making.

Implementing PROMs in routine clinical care: a qualitative exploration of GP perspectives.

BACKGROUND: The recently announced long-term plan for the NHS is based on a model of person-centred care, which relies on the sustained engagement of patients, shared decision making, and capability for self-management. For a primary care service under increasing pressure from an ageing and chronically ill population, Patient Reported Outcome Measures (PROMs) appear capable of supporting many of the requirements for person-centred care, yet little is known of the circumstances of their current implementation or how their use might be optimised. AIM: To begin the conversation about how successfully PROMs have been integrated into primary care and how their use might be supported. DESIGN & SETTING: A qualitative investigation of the perspectives of GPs exploring the use of PROMs as part of routine clinical care in England. METHOD: Semi-structured telephone interviews were conducted with GPs from across England. The data were analysed using the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research (CFIR). RESULTS: A total of 25 interviews were conducted and GPs described the potential benefit of PROMs in a range of circumstances, but also voiced concerns about their reliability and their potential to constrain consultations. Their flexibility meant they had the potential to be incorporated into existing care processes but only with the requisite logistical support. CONCLUSION: Areas that need to be addressed include the creation of a compelling body of evidence of the benefit of PROMs, appropriate training for staff and patients, and a coherent implementation strategy from policymakers and funding bodies.

wEight chanGes, caRdio-mEtabolic risks and morTality in patients with hyperthyroidism (EGRET): a protocol for a CPRD-HES linked cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Hyperthyroidism is a common condition affecting up to 3% of the UK population. Treatment improves symptoms and reduces the risk of atrial fibrillation and stroke that contribute to increased mortality. The most common symptom is weight loss, which is reversed during treatment. However, the weight regain may be excessive, contributing to increased risk of obesity. Current treatment options include antithyroid drugs, radioiodine and thyroidectomy. Whether there are differences in either weight change or the long-term cardiometabolic risk between the three treatments is unclear. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The study will establish the natural history of weight change in hyperthyroidism, investigate the risk of obesity and risks of cardiometabolic conditions and death relative to the treatment. The data on patients diagnosed with hyperthyroidism between 1 January 1996 and 31 December 2015 will come from Clinical Practice Research Datalink linked to Hospital Episode Statistics and Office of National Statistics Death Registry. The weight changes will be modelled using a flexible joint modelling, accounting for mortality. Obesity prevalence in the general population will be sourced from Health Survey for England and compared with the post-treatment prevalence of obesity in patients with hyperthyroidism. The incidence and time-to-event of major adverse cardiovascular events, other cardiometabolic outcomes and mortality will be compared between the treatments using the inverse propensity weighting model. Incidence rate ratios of outcomes will be modelled with Poisson regression. Time to event will be analysed using Cox proportional hazards model. A competing risks approach will be adopted to estimate comparative incidences to allow for the impact of mortality. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study will bring new knowledge on the risk of developing obesity, cardiometabolic morbidity and mortality following treatment for hyperthyroidism to inform clinical practice and public health policies. The results will be disseminated via open-access peer-reviewed publications and directly to the patients and public groups (Independent Scientific Advisory Committee protocol approval #20_000185).

Call for shared decision making in China: Challenges and opportunities.

China's healthcare system has undergone extensive changes over recent years and the most recent reforms are designed to shift the emphasis away from hospital based services towards a more primary care based system. There is an increasing recognition that shared decision making needs to play a central role in the delivery of healthcare in China, but there are several significant barriers to overcome before this aspiration becomes a reality. Doctor-patient relationships in China are poor, consultations are often brief transactions and levels of trust are low. Implementing a shared decision making process developed in the Western World may be hampered by cultural differences, although this remains an under-researched area. There is, however, a suggestion that the academic community is starting to take an interest in encouraging shared decision making in practice and indications that the Chinese public may be willing to consider this new approach to healthcare.

Statin initiations and QRISK2 scoring in UK general practice: a THIN database study.

BACKGROUND: Statin prescribing should be based on cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk, but evidence suggests overtreatment of low-risk groups and undertreatment of high-risk groups. AIM: To investigate the relationship between CVD risk scoring in primary care and initiation of statins for the primary prevention of CVD, and the effect of changes to the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidance in 2014. DESIGN AND SETTING: Historical cohort study using UK electronic primary care records. METHOD: A cohort was created of statin-naïve patients without CVD between 1 January 2000 and 31 December 2015. CVD risk scores (calculated using QRISK2 available from 2012) and statin initiations were identified. Rates of CVD risk score recording were calculated and relationships between CVD risk category (low-, intermediate-, and high-risk: <10%, 10-19.9%, and ≥20% 10-year CVD risk) and statin initiation were analysed. RESULTS: A total of 1.4 million patients were identified from 248 practices. Of these, 151 788 had a recorded CVD risk score since 2012 (10.67%) and 217 860 were initiated on a statin (15.31%). Among patients initiated on a statin after 2012, 27.1% had a documented QRISK2 score: 2.7% of low-risk, 13.8% of intermediate-risk, and 35.0% of high-risk patients were initiated on statins. Statin initiation rates halved from a peak in 2006. After the 2014 NICE guidelines, statin initiation rates declined in high-risk patients but increased in intermediate-risk patients. CONCLUSION: Most patients initiated on statins had no QRISK2 score recorded. Most patients at high risk of CVD were not initiated on statins. One in six statin initiations were to low-risk patients indicating significant overtreatment. Initiations of statins in intermediate-risk patients rose after NICE guidelines were updated in 2014.

Nursery sickness policies and their influence on prescribing for conjunctivitis: audit and questionnaire survey.

BACKGROUND: Acute infective conjunctivitis is common among preschool children. Public Health England (PHE) recommends that children with conjunctivitis do not need to be excluded from child care, but childcare providers are required to determine their own sickness policies and prior research suggests that children are often excluded until they are treated or have recovered. How the content of these policies impacts on prescribing decisions has not been quantified. AIM: To assess the content of childcare providers' sickness policies and determine the impact they have on clinicians' prescribing. DESIGN AND SETTING: An audit of childcare providers' sickness policies and a questionnaire among primary care clinicians. METHOD: Sickness policies from childcare providers across the UK were compared with PHE guidance. Clinicians completed a questionnaire on the impact that childcare provider policies have on their decision to prescribe antibiotics to preschool children with conjunctivitis. RESULTS: Of 164 policies examined, 86.7% excluded children with conjunctivitis and 49.4% of policies specified a requirement for antibiotics. Two-hundred clinicians completed questionnaires and 42.6% replied that they had been influenced by childcare policies when deciding whether to prescribe antibiotics in this scenario. Furthermore, 15.4% admitted that childcare policies had been the only reason they prescribed antibiotics. CONCLUSION: Most of the childcare providers' sickness policies contain requirements that are inconsistent with PHE guidance. The requirements of childcare sickness policies are likely to be resulting in unnecessary primary care consultations and thousands of prescriptions for antibiotics with little demonstrable clinical or public health benefit.

Cohort study investigating the relationship between cholesterol, cardiovascular risk score and the prescribing of statins in UK primary care: study protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Risk scoring is an integral part of the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and should form the basis for the decision to offer medication to reduce cholesterol (statins). However, there is a suggestion in the literature that many patients are still initiated on statins based on raised cholesterol rather than a raised CVD risk. It is important, therefore, to investigate the role that lipid levels and CVD risks have in the decision to prescribe. This research will establish how cholesterol levels and CVD risk independently influence the prescribing of statins for the primary prevention of CVD in primary care. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The Health Improvement Network (THIN) is a database of coded primary care electronic patient records from over 500 UK general practices. From this resource, a historical cohort will be created of patients without a diagnosis of CVD, not currently receiving a prescription for statins and who had a lipid profile measured. A post hoc QRISK2 score will be calculated for these patients and they will be followed up for 60 days to establish whether they were subsequently prescribed a statin. Primary analysis will consist of predictive modelling using multivariate logistic regression with potential predictors including cholesterol level, calculated QRISK2 score, sociodemographic characteristic and comorbidities. Descriptive statistics will be used to identify trends in prescribing and further secondary analysis will explore what other factors may have influenced the prescribing of statins and the degree of interprescriber variability. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The THIN Data Collection Scheme was approved by the South-East Multicentre Research Ethics Committee in 2003. Individual studies using THIN require Scientific Review Committee approval. The original protocol for this study and a subsequent amendment have been approved (16THIN009A1). The results will be published in a peer review journal and presented at national and international conferences.