Reforestation as a novel abatement and compliance measure for ground-level ozone.

High ambient ozone (O3) concentrations are a widespread and persistent problem globally. Although studies have documented the role of forests in removing O3 and one of its precursors, nitrogen dioxide (NO2), the cost effectiveness of using peri-urban reforestation for O3 abatement purposes has not been examined. We develop a methodology that uses available air quality and meteorological data and simplified forest structure growth-mortality and dry deposition models to assess the performance of reforestation for O3 precursor abatement. We apply this methodology to identify the cost-effective design for a hypothetical 405-ha, peri-urban reforestation project in the Houston-Galveston-Brazoria O3 nonattainment area in Texas. The project would remove an estimated 310 tons of (t) O3 and 58 t NO2 total over 30 y. Given its location in a nitrogen oxide (NOx)-limited area, and using the range of Houston area O3 production efficiencies to convert forest O3 removal to its NOx equivalent, this is equivalent to 127-209 t of the regulated NOx. The cost of reforestation per ton of NOx abated compares favorably to that of additional conventional controls if no land costs are incurred, especially if carbon offsets are generated. Purchasing agricultural lands for reforestation removes this cost advantage, but this problem could be overcome through cost-share opportunities that exist due to the public and conservation benefits of reforestation. Our findings suggest that peri-urban reforestation should be considered in O3 control efforts in Houston, other US nonattainment areas, and areas with O3 pollution problems in other countries, wherever O3 formation is predominantly NOx limited.

The value of hydrologic information for watershed management programs: The case of Camboriú, Brazil.

Investments in watershed services programs hold the promise to protect and restore ecosystems and water resources. The design and implementation of such programs is often accompanied by hydrologic modeling and monitoring, although the role of hydrologic information in meeting the needs of program managers remains unclear. In the Camboriú watershed, Brazil, we explored the value of hydrologic modeling and monitoring with respect to two dimensions: scientific credibility and use of generated knowledge in the design, implementation, and evaluation of the watershed management program. We used a combination of semi-structured interviews, focus groups, and hydrologic modeling under various levels of data availability to examine when improved models and data availability might build credibility and provide more useful information for decision makers. We found that hydrologic information was not actually used for the detailed design, but rather contributed to broad-scale support of the program by increasing scientific credibility. Model sophistication and data availability improved the credibility of hydrologic information but did not affect actual decisions related to program design. Hydrologic monitoring data were critical for model calibration, and high-resolution land use and land cover data, obtained via remote sensing, affected some model outputs which were not used to design the program. Our study suggests that identifying how hydrologic data will inform decision making should guide the level of effort used in hydrologic modeling and monitoring.

Returns on investment in watershed conservation: Application of a best practices analytical framework to the Rio Camboriú Water Producer program, Santa Catarina, Brazil.

Watershed management may have widespread potential to cost-effectively deliver hydrologic services. Mobilizing the needed investments requires credible assessments of how watershed conservation compares to conventional solutions on cost and effectiveness, utilizing an integrated analytical framework that links the bio-, litho-, hydro- and economic spheres and uses counterfactuals. We apply such a framework to a payment for watershed services (PWS) program in Camboriú, Santa Catarina State, Brazil. Using 1 m resolution satellite imagery, we assess recent land use and land cover (LULC) change and apply the Land Change Modeler tool to predict future LULC without the PWS program. We use current and predicted counterfactual LULC, site costs and a Soil and Water Assessment Tool model calibrated to the watershed to both target watershed interventions for sediment reduction and predict program impact on total suspended solids (TSS) concentrations at the municipal water intake-the principal program objective. Using local water treatment and PWS program costs, we estimate the return on investment (ROI; benefit/costs) of the program. Program ROI exceeds 1 for the municipal water utility in year 44, well within common drinking water infrastructure planning horizons. Because some program costs are borne by third parties, over that same period, for overall (social) program ROI to exceed 1 requires delivery of very modest flood and supply risk reduction and biodiversity co-benefits, making co-benefits crucial for social program justification. Transaction costs account for half of total program costs, a result of large investments in efficient targeting and program sustainability. Co-benefits justify increased cost sharing with other beneficiaries, which would increase ROI for the utility, demonstrating the sensitivity of the business case for watershed conservation to its broader social-economic case and the ability to forge institutional arrangements to internalize third-party benefits.

Knowledge diffusion within a large conservation organization and beyond.

The spread and uptake of new ideas (diffusion of innovations) is critical for organizations to adapt over time, but there is little evidence of how this happens within organizations and to their broader community. To address this, we analyzed how individuals accessed information about a recent science innovation at a large, international, biodiversity conservation non-profit-The Nature Conservancy-and then traced the flow of how this information was shared within the organization and externally, drawing on an exceptionally data-rich environment. We used surveys and tracking of individual internet activity to understand mechanisms for early-stage diffusion (knowledge seeking and sharing) following the integration of social science and evidence principles into the institutional planning framework: Conservation by Design (CbD 2.0). Communications sent to all employees effectively catalyzed 56.4% to exhibit knowledge seeking behavior, measured by individual downloads from and visits to a restricted-access site. Individuals who self-reported through a survey that they shared information about CbD 2.0 internally were more likely to have both received and sought out information about the framework. Such individuals tended to hold positions within a higher job grade, were more likely to train others on CbD as part of their job, and to enroll in other online professional development offerings. Communication strategies targeting external audiences did not appear to influence information seeking behavior. Staff who engaged in internal knowledge sharing and adopting "evidence" practices from CbD 2.0 were more likely to have shared the document externally. We found a negative correlation with external sharing behavior and in-person trainings. Our findings suggest repeated, direct email communications aimed at wide audiences can effectively promote diffusion of new ideas. We also found a wide range of employee characteristics and circumstances to be associated with knowledge diffusion behavior (at both an organizational and individual level).

Examining the relationship between environmental factors and conflict in pastoralist areas of East Africa.

The eastern Africa region has long been known for recurring drought, prolonged civil war and frequent pastoral conflicts. Several researchers have suggested that environmental factors can trigger conflicts among pastoralist communities, but quantitative support for this hypothesis is lacking. Here we use 29years of georeferenced precipitation and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data to evaluate long term trends in scarcity of water and forage for livestock, and then ask whether these environmental stressors have any predictive power with respect to the location and timing of 11years of conflict data based on Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) and Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP). Results indicate that environmental stressors were only partly predictive of conflict events. To better understand the drivers behind conflict, the contribution of other potential stressors to conflict need to be systematically quantified and be taken into consideration.

Do private conservation activities match science-based conservation priorities?

BACKGROUND: Private land conservation is an essential strategy for biodiversity protection in the USA, where half of the federally listed species have at least 80% of their habitat on private lands. We investigated the alignment between private land protection conducted by the world's largest land trust (The Nature Conservancy) and the science driven identification of priority areas for conservation. This represents the first quantitative assessment of the influence of defining priority areas on the land acquisitions of a conservation non-governmental organization (NGO). METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The lands acquired by The Nature Conservancy (TNC) were analyzed using GIS to determine to what extent they were in areas defined as priorities for conservation. The spatial analysis of TNC lands was broken up into land known to be acquired in the last five years, five to ten years ago, prior to ten years ago, and anytime during the last sixty years (including previous sets of data plus acquisitions lacking a date). For the entire history of TNC the proportion of TNC lands within the priority areas was 74%. Prior to 10 years ago it was 80%, 5-10 years ago it was 76%, and in the last five years it was 81%. Conservation easements were found to have lower alignment with priority areas (64%) than outright fee simple acquisitions (86%). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Overall the location of lands acquired was found to be well aligned with the priority areas. Since there was comparable alignment in lands acquired before and after formalized conservation planning had been implemented as a standard operating procedure, this analysis did not find evidence that defining priority areas has influenced land acquisition decisions.