The adverse effect of spasticity on 3-month poststroke outcome using a population-based model.

Several devices and medications have been used to address poststroke spasticity. Yet, spasticity's impact on outcomes remains controversial. Using data from a cohort of 460 ischemic stroke patients, we previously published a validated multivariable regression model for predicting 3-month modified Rankin Score (mRS) as an indicator of functional outcome. Here, we tested whether including spasticity improved model fit and estimated the effect spasticity had on the outcome. Spasticity was defined by a positive response to the question "Did you have spasticity following your stroke?" on direct interview at 3 months from stroke onset. Patients who had expired by 90 days (n = 30) or did not have spasticity data available (n = 102) were excluded. Spasticity affected the 3-month functional status (ß = 0.420, 95 CI = 0.194 to 0.645) after accounting for age, diabetes, leukoaraiosis, and retrospective NIHSS. Using spasticity as a covariable, the model's R (2) changed from 0.599 to 0.622. In our model, the presence of spasticity in the cohort was associated with a worsened 3-month mRS by an average of 0.4 after adjusting for known covariables. This significant adverse effect on functional outcomes adds predictive value beyond previously established factors.

Defining hematoma expansion in intracerebral hemorrhage: relationship with patient outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Hematoma expansion (HE) is a surrogate marker in intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) trials. However, the amount of HE necessary to produce poor outcomes in an individual is unclear; there is no agreement on a clinically meaningful definition of HE. We compared commonly used definitions of HE in their ability to predict poor outcome as defined by various cutpoints on the modified Rankin Scale (mRS). METHODS: In this cohort study, we analyzed 531 patients with ICH from the Virtual International Stroke Trials Archive. Primary outcome was mRS at 90 days, dichotomized into 0-3 vs 4-6. Secondary outcomes included other mRS cutpoints and mRS "shift analysis." Sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values for commonly used HE definitions were calculated. RESULTS: Between 13% and 32% of patients met the commonly used HE definitions. All definitions independently predicted poor outcome; positive predictive values increased with higher growth cutoffs but at the expense of lower sensitivities. All HE definitions showed higher specificity than sensitivity. Absolute growth cutoffs were more predictive than relative cutoffs when mRS 5-6 or 6 was defined as "poor outcome." CONCLUSION: HE robustly predicts poor outcome regardless of the growth definition or the outcome definition. The highest positive predictive values are obtained when using an absolute growth definition to predict more severe outcomes. Given that only a minority of patients may have clinically relevant HE, hemostatic ICH trials may need to enroll a large number of patients, or select for a population that is more likely to have HE.

Population-based study of wake-up strokes.

OBJECTIVE: Previous studies have estimated that wake-up strokes comprise 8%to 28% of all ischemic strokes, but these studies were either small or not population-based. We sought to establish the proportion and event rate of wake-up strokes in a large population-based study and to compare patients who awoke with stroke symptoms with those who were awake at time of onset. METHODS: First-time and recurrent ischemic strokes among residents of the Greater Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky region (population 1.3 million) in 2005 were identified using International Classification of Diseases-9 codes 430-436 and verified via study physician review. Ischemic strokes in patients aged 18 years and older presenting to an emergency department were included. Baseline characteristics were ascertained, along with discharge modified Rankin Scale scores and 90-day mortality. RESULTS: We identified 1,854 ischemic strokes presenting to an emergency department, of which 273 (14.3%) were wake-up strokes. There were no differences between wake-up strokes and all other strokes with regard to clinical features or outcomes except for minor differences in age and baseline retrospective NIH Stroke Scale score. The adjusted wake-up stroke event rate was 26.0/100,000. Of the wake-up strokes, at least 98 (35.9%) would have been eligible for thrombolysis if arrival time were not a factor. CONCLUSIONS: Within our population, approximately 14% of ischemic strokes presenting to an emergency department were wake-up strokes. Wake-up strokes cannot be distinguished from other strokes by clinical features or outcome. We estimate that approximately 58,000 patients with wake-up strokes presented to an emergency department in the United States in 2005.

Prior antiplatelet therapy and outcome following intracerebral hemorrhage: a systematic review.

OBJECTIVES: Antiplatelet therapy (APT) promotes bleeding; therefore, APT might worsen outcome in patients with intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to address the hypothesis that pre-ICH APT use is associated with mortality and poor functional outcome following ICH. METHODS: The Medline and Embase databases were searched in February 2008 using relevant key words, limited to human studies in the English language. Cohort studies of consecutive patients with ICH reporting mortality or functional outcome according to pre-ICH APT use were identified. Of 2,873 studies screened, 10 were judged to meet inclusion criteria by consensus of 2 authors. Additionally, we solicited unpublished data from all authors of cohort studies with >100 patients published within the last 10 years, and received data from 15 more studies. Univariate and multivariable-adjusted odds ratios (ORs) for mortality and poor functional outcome were abstracted as available and pooled using a random effects model. RESULTS: We obtained mortality data from 25 cohorts (15 unpublished) and functional outcome data from 21 cohorts (14 unpublished). Pre-ICH APT users had increased mortality in both univariate (OR 1.41, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.21 to 1.64) and multivariable-adjusted (OR 1.27, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.47) pooled analyses. By contrast, the pooled OR for poor functional outcome was no longer significant when using multivariable-adjusted estimates (univariate OR 1.29, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.53; multivariable-adjusted OR 1.10, 95% CI 0.93 to 1.29). CONCLUSIONS: In cohort studies, APT use at the time of ICH compared to no APT use was independently associated with increased mortality but not with poor functional outcome.

Smoking and family history and risk of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage.

OBJECTIVE: Smoking and family history of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) are independent risk factors for aSAH. Using a population-based case-control study of hemorrhagic stroke, we hypothesized that having both a first-degree relative with a brain aneurysm or SAH (+FH) and current smoking interact to increase the risk of aSAH. METHODS: Cases of aneurysmal SAH were prospectively recruited from all 17 hospitals in the five-county region around the University of Cincinnati. Controls were identified by random digit dialing. Controls were matched to cases of aSAH by age (+/-5 years), race, and sex. Conditional multiple logistic regression was used to identify independent risk factors. For deviation from the additive model, the interaction constant ratio test was used. RESULTS: A total of 339 cases of aSAH were matched to 1,016 controls. Compared to current nonsmokers with no first-degree relatives with aSAH (-FH), the odds ratio (OR) for aSAH for current nonsmokers with +FH was 2.5 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.9-6.9); for current smokers with -FH, OR = 3.1 (95% CI 2.2-4.4); and for current smokers with +FH, OR = 6.4 (95% CI 3.1-13. 2). The interaction constant ratio, which measured the deviation from the additive model, was significant: 2.19 (95% CI 0.80-5.99). The lower bound of the 95% CI >0.5 signifies a departure from the additive model. CONCLUSION: Evidence of a gene-environment interaction with smoking exists for aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage. This finding is important to counseling family members and for screening of intracranial aneurysm (IA) as well as the design and interpretation of genetic epidemiology of IA studies.

How important is surrogate consent for stroke research?

BACKGROUND: Patients with stroke may have cognitive deficits that impact their capacity to provide informed consent for research. Some institutional review boards restrict surrogate consent to persons who have specific legal authority to provide it. We examined the importance of surrogate consent in the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke (NINDS) rt-PA Stroke Trial, the study that led to the only US Food and Drug Administration-approved treatment for acute ischemic stroke. METHODS: The NINDS rt-PA Stroke Trial randomized subjects with ischemic stroke to treatment with recombinant tissue plasminogen activator (rt-PA) or placebo. We compared the baseline characteristics and clinical outcomes of subjects enrolled by self-consent with those of subjects enrolled by surrogate consent. RESULTS: Surrogate consent was used to enroll 439 of 624 (70%) subjects. Subjects enrolled by surrogate consent were older (68.5 vs 63.4 years, p < 0.001), had more severe strokes (median NIH Stroke Scale score 17 vs 9, p < 0.001), and were less likely to make a good recovery (p < 0.001 for all measures) than patients who provided their own consent. There was no interaction between method of consent and response to rt-PA. If the trial had used the same sample size and recruited at the same rate but excluded patients who could not provide their own consent, it would have taken 12.5 years to complete. CONCLUSIONS: The National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke recombinant tissue plasminogen activator (rt-PA) Stroke Trial would not have been completed in a timely fashion without subjects enrolled by surrogate consent. Furthermore, exclusion of subjects who could not provide their own consent would have severely limited the generalizability and value of trial results.

Warfarin use leads to larger intracerebral hematomas.

BACKGROUND: Among patients with intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), warfarin use before onset leads to greater mortality. In a retrospective study, we sought to determine whether warfarin use is associated with larger initial hematoma volume, one determinant of mortality after ICH. METHODS: We identified all patients hospitalized with ICH in the Greater Cincinnati region from January through December 2005. ICH volumes were measured on the first available brain scan by using the abc/2 method. Univariable analyses and a multivariable generalized linear model were used to determine whether international normalized ratio (INR) influenced initial ICH volume after adjusting for other factors, including age, race, sex, antiplatelet use, hemorrhage location, and time from stroke onset to scan. RESULTS: There were 258 patients with ICH, including 51 patients taking warfarin. In univariable comparison, when INR was stratified, there was a trend toward a difference in hematoma volume by INR category (INR <1.2, 13.4 mL; INR 1.2-2.0, 9.3 mL; INR 2.1-3.0, 14.0 mL; INR >3.0, 33.2 mL; p = 0.10). In the model, compared with patients with INR <1.2, there was no difference in hematoma size for patients with INR 1.2-2.0 (p = 0.25) or INR 2.1-3.0 (p = 0.36), but patients with INR >3.0 had greater hematoma volume (p = 0.02). Other predictors of larger hematoma size were ICH location (lobar compared with deep cerebral, p = 0.02) and shorter time from stroke onset to scan (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Warfarin use was associated with larger initial intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) volume, but this effect was only observed for INR values >3.0. Larger ICH volume among warfarin users likely accounts for part of the excess mortality in this group.

The increasing incidence of anticoagulant-associated intracerebral hemorrhage.

OBJECTIVE: To define temporal trends in the incidence of anticoagulant-associated intracerebral hemorrhage (AAICH) during the 1990s and relate them to rates of cardioembolic ischemic stroke. METHODS: We identified all patients hospitalized with first-ever intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) in greater Cincinnati during 1988, from July 1993 through June 1994, and during 1999. AAICH was defined as ICH in patients receiving warfarin or heparin. Patients from the same region hospitalized with first-ever ischemic stroke of cardioembolic mechanism were identified during 1993/1994 and 1999. Incidence rates were calculated and adjusted to the 2000 US population. Estimates of warfarin distribution in the United States were obtained for the years 1988 through 2004. RESULTS: AAICH occurred in 9 of 184 ICH cases (5%) in 1988, 23 of 267 cases (9%) in 1993/1994, and 54 of 311 cases (17%) in 1999 (p < 0.001). The annual incidence of AAICH per 100,000 persons was 0.8 (95% CI 0.3 to 1.3) in 1988, 1.9 (1.1 to 2.7) in 1993/1994, and 4.4 (3.2 to 5.5) in 1999 (p < 0.001 for trend). Among persons aged > or =80, the AAICH rate increased from 2.5 (0 to 7.4) in 1988 to 45.9 (25.6 to 66.2) in 1999 (p < 0.001 for trend). Incidence rates of cardioembolic ischemic stroke were similar in 1993/1994 and 1999 (31.1 vs 30.4, p = 0.65). Warfarin distribution in the United States quadrupled on a per-capita basis between 1988 and 1999. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of anticoagulant-associated intracerebral hemorrhage quintupled in our population during the 1990s. The majority of this change can be explained by increasing warfarin use. Anticoagulant-associated intracerebral hemorrhage now occurs at a frequency comparable to subarachnoid hemorrhage.

Long-term mortality after intracerebral hemorrhage.

OBJECTIVE: To characterize long-term mortality following intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) in two large population-based cohorts assembled more than a decade apart. METHODS: All patients age > or = 18 hospitalized with nontraumatic ICH in the Greater Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky area were identified during 1988 (Cohort 1) and from May 1998 to July 2001 and August 2002 to April 2003 (Cohort 2). Mortality was tabulated using actuarial methods and compared with a log-rank test. RESULTS: There were 183 patients with ICH in Cohort 1 and 1,041 patients in Cohort 2. Patients in Cohort 1 were more likely to be white (p = 0.024) and undergo operation for their ICH (p = 0.002), whereas patients in Cohort 2 were more commonly on anticoagulants (p < 0.001). Among patients in Cohort 1, mortality at 7 days, 1 year, and 10 years was 31, 59, and 82%. Among patients in Cohort 2, mortality at 7 days and 1 year was 34 and 53%. Mortality rates did not differ between cohorts by log-rank test (p = 0.259). CONCLUSIONS: Intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) mortality did not improve significantly between study periods. Operation for ICH became less frequent, whereas anticoagulant-associated ICH became more common.

Combined IV and intra-arterial thrombolysis for acute ischemic stroke.

Combined IV and intra-arterial (IA) thrombolysis for acute ischemic stroke may offer advantages over either technique alone. Sixty-two nonrandomized patients with NIH Stroke Scale scores of > or =10 who met standard criteria for IV thrombolysis were treated with an IV/IA approach. Three-month modified Rankin Scale scores were 0 to 2 for 50% of patients, mortality was 18%, and symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage occurred in 8%. IV/IA thrombolysis appeared safe and effective in this group.