Accuracy of Rain Forecasts for Use in Scheduling Late Blight Management Tactics in the Columbia Basin of Washington and Oregon.

Accuracy of prediction was analyzed for 17- and 30-day rain forecasts at two locations in the Columbia Basin to determine whether forecasts were sufficiently accurate to be included as a model component to schedule fungicide applications for potato late blight. Accuracy was partitioned into specificity (percentage of forecasted nonrainfall events classified correctly) and sensitivity (percentage of forecasted daily rainfall events classified correctly). An adjusted sensitivity, which included the forecasted rain day plus the next 2 days, was also used to give a wider target than only 1 day for evaluating accuracy of forecasted rain events. For 17-day forecasts, specificity during the seasonal test period was ≥70% from mid-June through September and specificity over the days of the forecast was >70% for the first 8 days at both locations both years. Adjusted sensitivity over days of the forecast was initially >80% and then decreased as forecasts increased from 7 to 17 days for 17-day forecasts at both locations and years. Sensitivity and adjusted sensitivity during the seasonal test period were both positively correlated with the number of rainy days while specificity was negatively correlated. Adjusted sensitivity was considerably higher for May (month with highest incidence of rain) than July (month with lowest incidence of rain) at both locations. For 30-day forecasts, specificity during the test period was >75% in July and August and adjusted sensitivity ranged from 60 to 100% for time periods occurring in May and June during both sample seasons. Specificity was generally above 80% as days of the forecast increased and adjusted sensitivity varied greatly over days of the forecasts, with extremes between 0 and 100% at both locations and years for the 30-day forecasts. Specificity of 17- and 30-day rain forecasts and adjusted sensitivity of 17-day rain forecasts have utility in scheduling late blight fungicides in the Columbia Basin.

Larval behaviour, dispersal and population connectivity in the deep sea.

Ecosystem connectivity is an essential consideration for marine spatial planning of competing interests in the deep sea. Immobile, adult communities are connected through freely floating larvae, depending on new recruits for their health and to adapt to external pressures. We hypothesize that the vertical swimming ability of deep-sea larvae, before they permanently settle at the bottom, is one way larvae can control dispersal. We test this hypothesis with more than [Formula: see text] simulated particles with a range of active swimming behaviours embedded within the currents of a high-resolution ocean model. Despite much stronger horizontal ocean currents, vertical swimming of simulated larvae can have an order of magnitude impact on dispersal. These strong relationships between larval dispersal, pathways, and active swimming demonstrate that lack of data on larval behaviour traits is a serious impediment to modelling deep-sea ecosystem connectivity; this uncertainty greatly limits our ability to develop ecologically coherent marine protected area networks.

Ocean sprawl facilitates dispersal and connectivity of protected species.

Highly connected networks generally improve resilience in complex systems. We present a novel application of this paradigm and investigated the potential for anthropogenic structures in the ocean to enhance connectivity of a protected species threatened by human pressures and climate change. Biophysical dispersal models of a protected coral species simulated potential connectivity between oil and gas installations across the North Sea but also metapopulation outcomes for naturally occurring corals downstream. Network analyses illustrated how just a single generation of virtual larvae released from these installations could create a highly connected anthropogenic system, with larvae becoming competent to settle over a range of natural deep-sea, shelf and fjord coral ecosystems including a marine protected area. These results provide the first study showing that a system of anthropogenic structures can have international conservation significance by creating ecologically connected networks and by acting as stepping stones for cross-border interconnection to natural populations.

Sensitivity of marine protected area network connectivity to atmospheric variability.

International efforts are underway to establish well-connected systems of marine protected areas (MPAs) covering at least 10% of the ocean by 2020. But the nature and dynamics of ocean ecosystem connectivity are poorly understood, with unresolved effects of climate variability. We used 40-year runs of a particle tracking model to examine the sensitivity of an MPA network for habitat-forming cold-water corals in the northeast Atlantic to changes in larval dispersal driven by atmospheric cycles and larval behaviour. Trajectories of Lophelia pertusa larvae were strongly correlated to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the dominant pattern of interannual atmospheric circulation variability over the northeast Atlantic. Variability in trajectories significantly altered network connectivity and source-sink dynamics, with positive phase NAO conditions producing a well-connected but asymmetrical network connected from west to east. Negative phase NAO produced reduced connectivity, but notably some larvae tracked westward-flowing currents towards coral populations on the mid-Atlantic ridge. Graph theoretical metrics demonstrate critical roles played by seamounts and offshore banks in larval supply and maintaining connectivity across the network. Larval longevity and behaviour mediated dispersal and connectivity, with shorter lived and passive larvae associated with reduced connectivity. We conclude that the existing MPA network is vulnerable to atmospheric-driven changes in ocean circulation.