Developing targeted client communication messages to pregnant women in Bangladesh: a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: Timely and appropriate evidence-based practices during antenatal care improve maternal and neonatal health. There is a lack of information on how pregnant women and families perceive antenatal care in Bangladesh. The aim of our study was to develop targeted client communication via text messages for increasing antenatal care utilization, as part of an implementation of an electronic registry for maternal and child health. METHODS: Using a phenomenological approach, we conducted this qualitative study from May to June 2017 in two sub-districts of Chandpur district, Bangladesh. We selected study participants by purposive sampling. A total of 24 in-depth interviews were conducted with pregnant women (n = 10), lactating women (n = 5), husbands (n = 5), and mothers-in-law (n = 4). The Health Belief Model (HBM) was used to guide the data collection. Thematic analysis was carried out manually according to the HBM constructs. We used behavior change techniques to inform the development of targeted client communication based on the thematic results. RESULTS: Almost no respondents mentioned antenatal care as a preventive form of care, and only perceived it as necessary if any complications developed during pregnancy. Knowledge of the content of antenatal care (ANC) and pregnancy complications was low. Women reported a variety of reasons for not attending ANC, including the lack of information on the timing of ANC; lack of decision-making power; long-distance to access care; being busy with household chores, and not being satisfied with the treatment by health care providers. Study participants recommended phone calls as their preferred communication strategy when asked to choose between the phone call and text message, but saw text messages as a feasible option. Based on the findings, we developed a library of 43 automatically customizable text messages to increase ANC utilization. CONCLUSIONS: Pregnant women and family members had limited knowledge about antenatal care and pregnancy complications. Effective health information through text messages could increase awareness of antenatal care among the pregnant women in Bangladesh. This study presents an example of designing targeted client communication to increase antenatal care utilization within formal scientific frameworks, including a taxonomy of behavior change techniques. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN69491836 . Registered on December 06, 2018. Retrospectively registered.

Antenatal care data sources and their policy and planning implications: a Palestinian example using the Lives Saved Tool.

BACKGROUND: Policy making in healthcare requires reliable and local data. Different sources of coverage data for health interventions can be utilized to populate the Lives Saved Tool (LiST), a commonly used policy-planning tool for women and children's health. We have evaluated four existing sources of antenatal care data in Palestine to discuss the implications of their use in LiST. METHODS: We identified all intervention coverage and health status indicators around the antenatal period that could be used to populate LiST. These indicators were calculated from 1) routine reported data, 2) a Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS), 3) paper-based antenatal records and 4) the eRegistry (an electronic health information system) for public clinics in the West Bank, Palestine for the most recent year available. We scaled coverage of each indicator to 90%, in public clinics only, and compared this to a no-change scenario for a seven-year period. RESULTS: Eight intervention coverage and health status indicators needed to populate the antenatal section of LiST could be calculated from both paper-based antenatal records and the eRegistry. Only two could be calculated from routine reports and three from a national survey. Maternal lives saved over seven years ranged from 5 to 39, with percent reduction in the maternal mortality ratio (MMR) ranging from 1 to 6%. Pre-eclampsia management accounted for 25 to 100% of these lives saved. CONCLUSIONS: The choice of data source for antenatal indicators will affect policy-based decisions when used to populate LiST. Although all data sources have their purpose, clinical data collected directly in an electronic registry during antenatal contacts may provide the most reliable and complete data to populate currently unavailable but needed indicators around specific antenatal care interventions.

Stillbirths: progress and unfinished business.

This first paper of the Lancet Series on ending preventable stillbirths reviews progress in essential areas, identified in the 2011 call to action for stillbirth prevention, to inform the integrated post-2015 agenda for maternal and newborn health. Worldwide attention to babies who die in stillbirth is rapidly increasing, from integration within the new Global Strategy for Women's, Children's and Adolescents' Health, to country policies inspired by the Every Newborn Action Plan. Supportive new guidance and metrics including stillbirth as a core health indicator and measure of quality of care are emerging. Prenatal health is a crucial biological foundation to life-long health. A key priority is to integrate action for prenatal health within the continuum of care for maternal and newborn health. Still, specific actions for stillbirths are needed for advocacy, policy formulation, monitoring, and research, including improvement in the dearth of data for effective coverage of proven interventions for prenatal survival. Strong leadership is needed worldwide and in countries. Institutions with a mandate to lead global efforts for mothers and their babies must assert their leadership to reduce stillbirths by promoting healthy and safe pregnancies.

Estimated economic impact of vaccinations in 73 low- and middle-income countries, 2001-2020.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the economic impact likely to be achieved by efforts to vaccinate against 10 vaccine-preventable diseases between 2001 and 2020 in 73 low- and middle-income countries largely supported by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. METHODS: We used health impact models to estimate the economic impact of achieving forecasted coverages for vaccination against Haemophilus influenzae type b, hepatitis B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, rotavirus, rubella, Streptococcus pneumoniae and yellow fever. In comparison with no vaccination, we modelled the costs - expressed in 2010 United States dollars (US$) - of averted treatment, transportation costs, productivity losses of caregivers and productivity losses due to disability and death. We used the value-of-a-life-year method to estimate the broader economic and social value of living longer, in better health, as a result of immunization. FINDINGS: We estimated that, in the 73 countries, vaccinations given between 2001 and 2020 will avert over 20 million deaths and save US$ 350 billion in cost of illness. The deaths and disability prevented by vaccinations given during the two decades will result in estimated lifelong productivity gains totalling US$ 330 billion and US$ 9 billion, respectively. Over the lifetimes of the vaccinated cohorts, the same vaccinations will save an estimated US$ 5 billion in treatment costs. The broader economic and social value of these vaccinations is estimated at US$ 820 billion. CONCLUSION: By preventing significant costs and potentially increasing economic productivity among some of the world's poorest countries, the impact of immunization goes well beyond health.

A method for estimating maternal and newborn lives saved from health-related investments funded by the UK government Department for International Development using the Lives Saved Tool.

BACKGROUND: In 2010, the UK Government Department for International Development (DFID) committed through its 'Framework for results for reproductive, maternal and newborn health (RMNH)' to save 50,000 maternal lives and 250,000 newborn lives by 2015. They also committed to monitoring the performance of this portfolio of investments to demonstrate transparency and accountability. Methods currently available to directly measure lives saved are cost-, time-, and labour-intensive. The gold standard for calculating the total number of lives saved would require measuring mortality with large scale population based surveys or annual vital events surveillance. Neither is currently available in all low- and middle-income countries. Estimating the independent effect of DFID support relative to all other effects on health would also be challenging. METHODS: The Lives Saved Tool (LiST) is an evidence based software for modelling the effect of changes in health intervention coverage on reproductive, maternal, newborn and child mortality. A multi-country LiST-based analysis protocol was developed to retrospectively assess the total annual number of maternal and newborn lives saved from DFID aid programming in low- and middle-income countries. RESULTS: Annual LiST analyses using the latest program data from DFID country offices were conducted between 2013 and 2016, estimating the annual number of maternal and neonatal lives saved across 2010-2015. For each country, independent project results were aggregated into health intervention coverage estimates, with and in the absence of DFID funding. More than 80% of reported projects were suitable for inclusion in the analysis, with 151 projects analysed in the 2016 analysis. Between 2010 and 2014, it is estimated that DFID contributed to saving the lives of 15,000 women in pregnancy and childbirth with health programming and 88,000 with family planning programming. It is estimated that DFID health programming contributed to saving 187,000 newborn lives. CONCLUSIONS: It is feasible to estimate the overall contribution and impact of DFID's investment in RMNH from currently available information on interventions and coverage from individual country offices. This utilization of LiST, with estimated population coverage based on DFID program inputs, can be applied to similar types of datasets to quantify programme impact. The global data were used to estimate DFID's progress against the Framework for results targets to inform future programming. The identified limitations can also be considered to inform future monitoring and evaluation program design and implementation within DFID.

eRegistries: indicators for the WHO Essential Interventions for reproductive, maternal, newborn and child health.

BACKGROUND: Electronic health registries - eRegistries - can systematically collect relevant information at the point of care for reproductive, maternal, newborn and child health (RMNCH). However, a suite of process and outcome indicators is needed for RMNCH to monitor care and to ensure comparability between settings. Here we report on the assessment of current global indicators and the development of a suite of indicators for the WHO Essential Interventions for use at various levels of health care systems nationally and globally. METHODS: Currently available indicators from both household and facility surveys were collated through publicly available global databases and respective survey instruments. We then developed a suite of potential indicators and associated data points for the 45 WHO Essential Interventions spanning preconception to newborn care. Four types of performance indicators were identified (where applicable): process (i.e. coverage) and outcome (i.e. impact) indicators for both screening and treatment/prevention. Indicators were evaluated by an international expert panel against the eRegistries indicator evaluation criteria and further refined based on feedback by the eRegistries technical team. RESULTS: Of the 45 WHO Essential Interventions, only 16 were addressed in any of the household survey data available. A set of 216 potential indicators was developed. These indicators were generally evaluated favourably by the panel, but difficulties in data ascertainment, including for outcome measures of cause-specific morbidity and mortality, were frequently reported as barriers to the feasibility of indicators. Indicators were refined based on feedback, culminating in the final list of 193 total unique indicators: 93 for preconception and antenatal care; 53 for childbirth and postpartum care; and 47 for newborn and small and ill baby care. CONCLUSIONS: Large gaps exist in the availability of information currently collected to support the implementation of the WHO Essential Interventions. The development of this suite of indicators can be used to support the implementation of eRegistries and other data platforms, to ensure that data are utilised to support evidence-based practice, facilitate measurement and accountability, and improve maternal and child health outcomes.

eRegistries: Electronic registries for maternal and child health.

BACKGROUND: The Global Roadmap for Health Measurement and Accountability sees integrated systems for health information as key to obtaining seamless, sustainable, and secure information exchanges at all levels of health systems. The Global Strategy for Women's, Children's and Adolescent's Health aims to achieve a continuum of quality of care with effective coverage of interventions. The WHO and World Bank recommend that countries focus on intervention coverage to monitor programs and progress for universal health coverage. Electronic health registries - eRegistries - represent integrated systems that secure a triple return on investments: First, effective single data collection for health workers to seamlessly follow individuals along the continuum of care and across disconnected cadres of care providers. Second, real-time public health surveillance and monitoring of intervention coverage, and third, feedback of information to individuals, care providers and the public for transparent accountability. This series on eRegistries presents frameworks and tools to facilitate the development and secure operation of eRegistries for maternal and child health. METHODS: In this first paper of the eRegistries Series we have used WHO frameworks and taxonomy to map how eRegistries can support commonly used electronic and mobile applications to alleviate health systems constraints in maternal and child health. A web-based survey of public health officials in 64 low- and middle-income countries, and a systematic search of literature from 2005-2015, aimed to assess country capacities by the current status, quality and use of data in reproductive health registries. RESULTS: eRegistries can offer support for the 12 most commonly used electronic and mobile applications for health. Countries are implementing health registries in various forms, the majority in transition from paper-based data collection to electronic systems, but very few have eRegistries that can act as an integrating backbone for health information. More mature country capacity reflected by published health registry based research is emerging in settings reaching regional or national scale, increasingly with electronic solutions. 66 scientific publications were identified based on 32 registry systems in 23 countries over a period of 10 years; this reflects a challenging experience and capacity gap for delivering sustainable high quality registries. CONCLUSIONS: Registries are being developed and used in many high burden countries, but their potential benefits are far from realized as few countries have fully transitioned from paper-based health information to integrated electronic backbone systems. Free tools and frameworks exist to facilitate progress in health information for women and children.

The projected effect of scaling up midwifery.

We used the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) to estimate deaths averted if midwifery was scaled up in 78 countries classified into three tertiles using the Human Development Index (HDI). We selected interventions in LiST to encompass the scope of midwifery practice, including prepregnancy, antenatal, labour, birth, and post-partum care, and family planning. Modest (10%), substantial (25%), or universal (95%) scale-up scenarios from present baseline levels were all found to reduce maternal deaths, stillbirths, and neonatal deaths by 2025 in all countries tested. With universal coverage of midwifery interventions for maternal and newborn health, excluding family planning, for the countries with the lowest HDI, 61% of all maternal, fetal, and neonatal deaths could be prevented. Family planning alone could prevent 57% of all deaths because of reduced fertility and fewer pregnancies. Midwifery with both family planning and interventions for maternal and newborn health could avert a total of 83% of all maternal deaths, stillbirths, and neonatal deaths. The inclusion of specialist care in the scenarios resulted in an increased number of deaths being prevented, meaning that midwifery care has the greatest effect when provided within a functional health system with effective referral and transfer mechanisms to specialist care.

Patterns in coverage of maternal, newborn, and child health interventions: projections of neonatal and under-5 mortality to 2035.

BACKGROUND: Urgent calls have been made for improved understanding of changes in coverage of maternal, newborn, and child health interventions, and their country-level determinants. We examined historical trends in coverage of interventions with proven effectiveness, and used them to project rates of child and neonatal mortality in 2035 in 74 Countdown to 2015 priority countries. METHODS: We investigated coverage of all interventions for which evidence was available to suggest effective reductions in maternal and child mortality, for which indicators have been defined, and data have been obtained through household surveys. We reanalysed coverage data from 312 nationally-representative household surveys done between 1990 and 2011 in 69 countries, including 58 Countdown countries. We developed logistic Loess regression models for patterns of coverage change for each intervention, and used k-means cluster analysis to divide interventions into three groups with different historical patterns of coverage change. Within each intervention group, we examined performance of each country in achieving coverage gains. We constructed models that included baseline coverage, region, gross domestic product, conflict, and governance to examine country-specific annual percentage coverage change for each group of indicators. We used the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) to predict mortality rates of children younger than 5 years (henceforth, under 5) and in the neonatal period in 2035 for Countdown countries if trends in coverage continue unchanged (historical trends scenario) and if each country accelerates intervention coverage to the highest level achieved by a Countdown country with similar baseline coverage level (best performer scenario). RESULTS: Odds of coverage of three interventions (antimalarial treatment, skilled attendant at birth, and use of improved sanitation facilities) have decreased since 1990, with a mean annual decrease of 5·5% (SD 2·7%). Odds of coverage of four interventions--all related to the prevention of malaria--have increased rapidly, with a mean annual increase of 27·9% (7·3%). Odds of coverage of other interventions have slowly increased, with a mean annual increase of 5·3% (3·5%). Rates of coverage change varied widely across countries; we could not explain the differences by measures of gross domestic product, conflict, or governance. On the basis of LiST projections, we predicted that the number of Countdown countries with an under-5 mortality rate of fewer than 20 deaths per 1000 livebirths per year would increase from four (5%) of the 74 in 2010, to nine (12%) by 2035 under the historical trends scenario, and to 15 (20%) under the best performer scenario. The number of countries with neonatal mortality rates of fewer than 11 per 1000 livebirths per year would increase from three (4%) in 2010, to ten (14%) by 2035 under the historical trends scenario, and 67 (91%) under the best performer scenario. The number of under-5 deaths per year would decrease from an estimated 7·6 million in 2010, to 5·4 million (28% decrease) if historical trends continue, and to 2·3 million (71% decrease) under the best performer scenario. INTERPRETATION: Substantial reductions in child deaths are possible, but only if intensified efforts to achieve intervention coverage are implemented successfully within each of the Countdown countries. FUNDING: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Measuring SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations in neighborhood wastewater.

Longitudinal wastewater sampling during the COVID-19 pandemic was an important aspect of disease surveillance, adding to a more complete understanding of infection dynamics and providing important data for community public health monitoring and intervention planning. This was largely accomplished by testing SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations in samples from municipal wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). We evaluated the utility of testing for virus levels upstream from WWTP within the residential neighborhoods that feed into the WWTP. We propose that monitoring virus dynamics across residential neighborhoods could reveal important public health-relevant information about community sub-group heterogeneity in virus concentrations. PRINCIPAL RESULTS: Virus concentration patterns display heterogeneity within neighborhoods and between neighborhoods over time. Sewage SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations as measured by RT-qPCR also corresponded closely to verified COVID-19 infection counts within individual neighborhoods. More importantly, our data suggest the loss of disease-relevant public health information when sampling occurs only at the level of WWTP instead of upstream in neighborhoods. Spikes in SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations in neighborhoods are often masked by dilution from other neighborhoods in the WWTP samples. MAJOR CONCLUSIONS: Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) employed at WWTP reliably detects SARS-CoV-2 in a city-sized population but provides less actionable public health information about neighborhoods experiencing greater viral infection and disease. Neighborhood sewershed sampling reveals important population-based information about local virus dynamics and improves opportunities for public health intervention. Longitudinally employed, neighborhood sewershed surveillance may provide a 3-6 day early warning of SARS-CoV-2 infection spikes and, importantly, highly specific information on subpopulations in a community particularly at higher risk at different points in time. Sampling in neighborhoods may thus provide timely and cost-saving information for targeted interventions within communities.

Estimating the child health equity potential of improved sanitation in Nepal.

BACKGROUND: Access to improved sanitation plays an important role in child health through its impact on diarrheal mortality and malnutrition. Inequities in sanitation coverage translate into health inequities across socio-economic groups. This paper presents the differential impact on child mortality and diarrheal incidence of expanding sanitation coverage across wealth quintiles in Nepal. METHODS: We modeled three scale up coverage scenarios at the national level and at each of the 5 wealth quintiles for improved sanitation in Nepal in the Lives Saved Tool (LiST): equal for all quintiles, realistically pro-poor and ambitiously pro-poor. RESULTS: The results show that equal improvement in sanitation coverage can save a total of 226 lives (10.7% of expected diarrhea deaths), while a realistically pro-poor program can save 451 child lives (20.5%) and the ambitiously pro-poor program can save 542 lives (24.6%). CONCLUSIONS: Pro-poor policies for expanding sanitation coverage have the ability to reduce population level health inequalities which can translate into reduced child diarrheal mortality.

Overview of the Lives Saved Tool (LiST).

This paper provides an overview of the historical development and current status of the Lives Saved Tool (LiST). The paper provides a general explanation of the modeling approach used in the model with links to web sites and other articles with more details. It also details the development process in developing both the model structure as well as the assumptions used in the model. The paper provides information about how LiST has been and is currently being used by various organizations and within national health programs. We also provide a review of the work that has been done to try to validate the outputs of the model.

Born too soon: accelerating actions for prevention and care of 15 million newborns born too soon.

Preterm birth complication is the leading cause of neonatal death resulting in over one million deaths each year of the 15 million babies born preterm. To accelerate change, we provide an overview of the comprehensive strategy required, the tools available for context-specifi c health system implementation now, and the priorities for research and innovation. There is an urgent need for action on a dual track: (1) through strategic research to advance the prevention of preterm birth and (2) improved implementation and innovation for care of the premature neonate. We highlight evidence-based interventions along the continuum of care, noting gaps in coverage, quality, equity and implications for integration and scale up. Improved metrics are critical for both burden and tracking programmatic change. Linked to the United Nation's Every Women Every Child strategy, a target was set for 50% reduction in preterm deaths by 2025. Three analyses informed this target: historical change in high income countries, recent progress in best performing countries, and modelling of mortality reduction with high coverage of existing interventions. If universal coverage of selected interventions were to be achieved, then 84% or more than 921,000 preterm neonatal deaths could be prevented annually, with antenatal corticosteroids and Kangaroo Mother Care having the highest impact. Everyone has a role to play in reaching this target including government leaders, professionals, private sector, and of course families who are aff ected the most and whose voices have been critical for change in many of the countries with the most progress.

Stillbirths: what difference can we make and at what cost?

Worldwide, 2·65 million (uncertainty range 2·08 million to 3·79 million) stillbirths occur yearly, of which 98% occur in countries of low and middle income. Despite the fact that more than 45% of the global burden of stillbirths occur intrapartum, the perception is that little is known about effective interventions, especially those that can be implemented in low-resource settings. We undertook a systematic review of randomised trials and observational studies of interventions which could reduce the burden of stillbirths, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries. We identified several interventions with sufficient evidence to recommend implementation in health systems, including periconceptional folic acid supplementation or fortification, prevention of malaria, and improved detection and management of syphilis during pregnancy in endemic areas. Basic and comprehensive emergency obstetric care were identified as key effective interventions to reduce intrapartum stillbirths. Broad-scale implementation of intervention packages across 68 countries listed as priorities in the Countdown to 2015 report could avert up to 45% of stillbirths according to a model generated from the Lives Saved Tool. The overall costs for these interventions are within the general estimates of cost-effective interventions for maternal care, especially in view of the effects on outcomes across maternal, fetal, and neonatal health.

Stillbirths: how can health systems deliver for mothers and babies?

The causes of stillbirths are inseparable from the causes of maternal and neonatal deaths. This report focuses on prevention of stillbirths by scale-up of care for mothers and babies at the health-system level, with consideration for effects and cost. In countries with high mortality rates, emergency obstetric care has the greatest effect on maternal and neonatal deaths, and on stillbirths. Syphilis detection and treatment is of moderate effect but of lower cost and is highly feasible. Advanced antenatal care, including induction for post-term pregnancies, and detection and management of hypertensive disease, fetal growth restriction, and gestational diabetes, will further reduce mortality, but at higher cost. These interventions are best packaged and provided through linked service delivery methods tailored to suit existing health-care systems. If 99% coverage is reached in 68 priority countries by 2015, up to 1·1 million (45%) third-trimester stillbirths, 201 000 (54%) maternal deaths, and 1·4 million (43%) neonatal deaths could be saved per year at an additional total cost of US$10·9 billion or $2·32 per person, which is in the range of $0·96-2·32 for other ingredients-based intervention packages with only recurrent costs.

Comparison of a palm-based biometric solution with a name-based identification system in rural Bangladesh.

BACKGROUND: Unique identifiers are not universal in low- and middle-income countries. Biometric solutions have the potential to augment existing name-based searches used for identification in these settings. This paper describes a comparison of the searching accuracy of a palm-based biometric solution with a name-based database. OBJECTIVE: To compare the identification of individuals between a palm-based biometric solution to a name-based District Health Information Software 2 (DHIS2) Android application, in a low-resource setting. METHODS: The study was conducted in Chandpur district, Bangladesh. Trained data collectors enrolled 150 women of reproductive age into two android applications - i) a name-based DHIS2 application, and ii) a palm-based biometric solution - both run on tablets. One week after enrollment, a different research team member attempted to re-identify each enrolled woman using both systems. A single image or text-based name was used for searching at the time of re-identification. We interviewed data collectors at the end of the study. RESULTS: Significantly more women were successfully identified on the first attempt with a palm-based biometric application (84%) compared with the name-based DHIS2 application (61%). The proportion of identifications that required three or more attempts was similar between name-based (7%, CI 3.7-12.3) and palm-based biometric system (5%, CI: 1.9-9.4). However, the total number of attempts needed was significantly lower with the palm-based solution (mean 1.2 vs. 1.5, p < 0.001). In a group discussion, data collectors reported that the palm-based biometric identification system was both accurate and easy to use. CONCLUSION: A palm-based biometric identification system on mobile devices was found to be an easy-to-use and accurate technology for the unique identification of individuals compared to an existing name-based application. Our findings imply that palm-based biometrics on mobile devices may be the next step in establishing unique identifiers in remote and rural settings where they are currently absent.

Scaling up diarrhea prevention and treatment interventions: a Lives Saved Tool analysis.

BACKGROUND: Diarrhea remains a leading cause of mortality among young children in low- and middle-income countries. Although the evidence for individual diarrhea prevention and treatment interventions is solid, the effect a comprehensive scale-up effort would have on diarrhea mortality has not been estimated. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We use the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) to estimate the potential lives saved if two scale-up scenarios for key diarrhea interventions (oral rehydration salts [ORS], zinc, antibiotics for dysentery, rotavirus vaccine, vitamin A supplementation, basic water, sanitation, hygiene, and breastfeeding) were implemented in the 68 high child mortality countries. We also conduct a simple costing exercise to estimate cost per capita and total costs for each scale-up scenario. Under the ambitious (feasible improvement in coverage of all interventions) and universal (assumes near 100% coverage of all interventions) scale-up scenarios, we demonstrate that diarrhea mortality can be reduced by 78% and 92%, respectively. With universal coverage nearly 5 million diarrheal deaths could be averted during the 5-year scale-up period for an additional cost of US$12.5 billion invested across 68 priority countries for individual-level prevention and treatment interventions, and an additional US$84.8 billion would be required for the addition of all water and sanitation interventions. CONCLUSION: Using currently available interventions, we demonstrate that with improved coverage, diarrheal deaths can be drastically reduced. If delivery strategy bottlenecks can be overcome and the international community can collectively deliver on the key strategies outlined in these scenarios, we will be one step closer to achieving success for the United Nations' Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG4) by 2015.

Trends in causes of death among children under 5 in Bangladesh, 1993-2004: an exercise applying a standardized computer algorithm to assign causes of death using verbal autopsy data.

BACKGROUND: Trends in the causes of child mortality serve as important global health information to guide efforts to improve child survival. With child mortality declining in Bangladesh, the distribution of causes of death also changes. The three verbal autopsy (VA) studies conducted with the Bangladesh Demographic and Health Surveys provide a unique opportunity to study these changes in child causes of death. METHODS: To ensure comparability of these trends, we developed a standardized algorithm to assign causes of death using symptoms collected through the VA studies. The original algorithms applied were systematically reviewed and key differences in cause categorization, hierarchy, case definition, and the amount of data collected were compared to inform the development of the standardized algorithm. Based primarily on the 2004 cause categorization and hierarchy, the standardized algorithm guarantees comparability of the trends by only including symptom data commonly available across all three studies. RESULTS: Between 1993 and 2004, pneumonia remained the leading cause of death in Bangladesh, contributing to 24% to 33% of deaths among children under 5. The proportion of neonatal mortality increased significantly from 36% (uncertainty range [UR]: 31%-41%) to 56% (49%-62%) during the same period. The cause-specific mortality fractions due to birth asphyxia/birth injury and prematurity/low birth weight (LBW) increased steadily, with both rising from 3% (2%-5%) to 13% (10%-17%) and 10% (7%-15%), respectively. The cause-specific mortality rates decreased significantly due to neonatal tetanus and several postneonatal causes (tetanus: from 7 [4-11] to 2 [0.4-4] per 1,000 live births (LB); pneumonia: from 26 [20-33] to 15 [11-20] per 1,000 LB; diarrhea: from 12 [8-17] to 4 [2-7] per 1,000 LB; measles: from 5 [2-8] to 0.2 [0-0.7] per 1,000 LB; injury: from 11 [7-17] to 3 [1-5] per 1,000 LB; and malnutrition: from 9 [6-13] to 5 [2-7]). CONCLUSIONS: Pneumonia remained the top killer of children under 5 in Bangladesh between 1993 and 2004. The increasing importance of neonatal survival is highlighted by the growing contribution of neonatal deaths and several neonatal causes. Notwithstanding the limitations, standardized computer-based algorithms remain a promising tool to generate comparable causes of child death using VA data.

Comparison of Lives Saved Tool model child mortality estimates against measured data from vector control studies in sub-Saharan Africa.

BACKGROUND: Insecticide-treated mosquito nets (ITNs) and indoor-residual spraying have been scaled-up across sub-Saharan Africa as part of international efforts to control malaria. These interventions have the potential to significantly impact child survival. The Lives Saved Tool (LiST) was developed to provide national and regional estimates of cause-specific mortality based on the extent of intervention coverage scale-up. We compared the percent reduction in all-cause child mortality estimated by LiST against measured reductions in all-cause child mortality from studies assessing the impact of vector control interventions in Africa. METHODS: We performed a literature search for appropriate studies and compared reductions in all-cause child mortality estimated by LiST to 4 studies that estimated changes in all-cause child mortality following the scale-up of vector control interventions. The following key parameters measured by each study were applied to available country projections: baseline all-cause child mortality rate, proportion of mortality due to malaria, and population coverage of vector control interventions at baseline and follow-up years. RESULTS: The percent reduction in all-cause child mortality estimated by the LiST model fell within the confidence intervals around the measured mortality reductions for all 4 studies. Two of the LiST estimates overestimated the mortality reductions by 6.1 and 4.2 percentage points (33% and 35% relative to the measured estimates), while two underestimated the mortality reductions by 4.7 and 6.2 percentage points (22% and 25% relative to the measured estimates). CONCLUSIONS: The LiST model did not systematically under- or overestimate the impact of ITNs on all-cause child mortality. These results show the LiST model to perform reasonably well at estimating the effect of vector control scale-up on child mortality when compared against measured data from studies across a range of malaria transmission settings. The LiST model appears to be a useful tool in estimating the potential mortality reduction achieved from scaling-up malaria control interventions.