Inter-annual and inter-species tree growth explained by phenology of xylogenesis.

Wood formation determines major long-term carbon (C) accumulation in trees and therefore provides a crucial ecosystem service in mitigating climate change. Nevertheless, we lack understanding of how species with contrasting wood anatomical types differ with respect to phenology and environmental controls on wood formation. In this study, we investigated the seasonality and rates of radial growth and their relationships with climatic factors, and the seasonal variations of stem nonstructural carbohydrates (NSC) in three species with contrasting wood anatomical types (red oak: ring-porous; red maple: diffuse-porous; white pine: coniferous) in a temperate mixed forest during 2017-2019. We found that the high ring width variability observed in both red oak and red maple was caused more by changes in growth duration than growth rate. Seasonal radial growth patterns did not vary following transient environmental factors for all three species. Both angiosperm species showed higher concentrations and lower inter-annual fluctuations of NSC than the coniferous species. Inter-annual variability of ring width varied by species with contrasting wood anatomical types. Due to the high dependence of annual ring width on growth duration, our study highlights the critical importance of xylem formation phenology for understanding and modelling the dynamics of wood formation.

Insights into source/sink controls on wood formation and photosynthesis from a stem chilling experiment in mature red maple.

Whether sources or sinks control wood growth remains debated with a paucity of evidence from mature trees in natural settings. Here, we altered carbon supply rate in stems of mature red maples (Acer rubrum) within the growing season by restricting phloem transport using stem chilling; thereby increasing carbon supply above and decreasing carbon supply below the restrictions, respectively. Chilling successfully altered nonstructural carbon (NSC) concentrations in the phloem without detectable repercussions on bulk NSC in stems and roots. Ring width responded strongly to local variations in carbon supply with up to seven-fold differences along the stem of chilled trees; however, concurrent changes in the structural carbon were inconclusive at high carbon supply due to large local variability of wood growth. Above chilling-induced bottlenecks, we also observed higher leaf NSC concentrations, reduced photosynthetic capacity, and earlier leaf coloration and fall. Our results indicate that the cambial sink is affected by carbon supply, but within-tree feedbacks can downregulate source activity, when carbon supply exceeds demand. Such feedbacks have only been hypothesized in mature trees. Consequently, these findings constitute an important advance in understanding source-sink dynamics, suggesting that mature red maples operate close to both source- and sink-limitation in the early growing season.

Manipulating phloem transport affects wood formation but not local nonstructural carbon reserves in an evergreen conifer.

How variations in carbon supply affect wood formation remains poorly understood in particular in mature forest trees. To elucidate how carbon supply affects carbon allocation and wood formation, we attempted to manipulate carbon supply to the cambial region by phloem girdling and compression during the mid- and late-growing season and measured effects on structural development, CO2 efflux and nonstructural carbon reserves in stems of mature white pines. Wood formation and stem CO2 efflux varied with a location relative to treatment (i.e., above or below the restriction). We observed up to twice as many tracheids formed above versus below the treatment after the phloem transport manipulation, whereas the cell-wall area decreased only slightly below the treatments, and cell size did not change relative to the control. Nonstructural carbon reserves in the xylem, needles and roots were largely unaffected by the treatments. Our results suggest that low and high carbon supply affects wood formation, primarily through a strong effect on cell proliferation, and respiration, but local nonstructural carbon concentrations appear to be maintained homeostatically. This contrasts with reports of decoupling of source activity and wood formation at the whole-tree or ecosystem level, highlighting the need to better understand organ-specific responses, within-tree feedbacks, as well as phenological and ontogenetic effects on sink-source dynamics.

Direct response of tree growth to soil water and its implications for terrestrial carbon cycle modelling.

Wood growth constitutes the main process for long-term atmospheric carbon sequestration in vegetation. However, our understanding of the process of wood growth and its response to environmental drivers is limited. Current dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) are mainly photosynthesis-driven and thus do not explicitly include a direct environmental effect on tree growth. However, physiological evidence suggests that, to realistically model vegetation carbon allocation under increased climatic stressors, it is crucial to treat growth responses independently from photosynthesis. A plausible growth response function suitable for global simulations in DGVMs has been lacking. Here, we present the first soil water-growth response function and parameter range for deciduous and evergreen conifers. The response curve was calibrated against European larch and Norway spruce in a dry temperate forest in the Swiss Alps. We present a new data-driven approach based on a combination of tree ring width (TRW) records, growing season length and simulated subdaily soil hydrology to parameterize ring width increment simulations. We found that a simple linear response function, with an intercept at zero moisture stress, used in growth simulations reproduced 62.3% and 59.4% of observed TRW variability for larch and spruce respectively and, importantly, the response function slope was much steeper than literature values for soil moisture effects on photosynthesis and stomatal conductance. Specifically, we found stem growth stops at soil moisture potentials of -0.47 MPa for larch and -0.66 MPa for spruce, whereas photosynthesis in trees continues down to -1.2 MPa or lower, depending on species and measurement method. These results are strong evidence that the response functions of source and sink processes are indeed very different in trees, and need to be considered separately to correctly assess vegetation responses to environmental change. The results provide a parameterization for the explicit representation of growth responses to soil water in vegetation models.

Climatically controlled reproduction drives interannual growth variability in a temperate tree species.

Climatically controlled allocation to reproduction is a key mechanism by which climate influences tree growth and may explain lagged correlations between climate and growth. We used continent-wide datasets of tree-ring chronologies and annual reproductive effort in Fagus sylvatica from 1901 to 2015 to characterise relationships between climate, reproduction and growth. Results highlight that variable allocation to reproduction is a key factor for growth in this species, and that high reproductive effort ('mast years') is associated with stem growth reduction. Additionally, high reproductive effort is associated with previous summer temperature, creating lagged climate effects on growth. Consequently, understanding growth variability in forest ecosystems requires the incorporation of reproduction, which can be highly variable. Our results suggest that future response of growth dynamics to climate change in this species will be strongly influenced by the response of reproduction.

Evaluation of climate-related carbon turnover processes in global vegetation models for boreal and temperate forests.

Turnover concepts in state-of-the-art global vegetation models (GVMs) account for various processes, but are often highly simplified and may not include an adequate representation of the dominant processes that shape vegetation carbon turnover rates in real forest ecosystems at a large spatial scale. Here, we evaluate vegetation carbon turnover processes in GVMs participating in the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP, including HYBRID4, JeDi, JULES, LPJml, ORCHIDEE, SDGVM, and VISIT) using estimates of vegetation carbon turnover rate (k) derived from a combination of remote sensing based products of biomass and net primary production (NPP). We find that current model limitations lead to considerable biases in the simulated biomass and in k (severe underestimations by all models except JeDi and VISIT compared to observation-based average k), likely contributing to underestimation of positive feedbacks of the northern forest carbon balance to climate change caused by changes in forest mortality. A need for improved turnover concepts related to frost damage, drought, and insect outbreaks to better reproduce observation-based spatial patterns in k is identified. As direct frost damage effects on mortality are usually not accounted for in these GVMs, simulated relationships between k and winter length in boreal forests are not consistent between different regions and strongly biased compared to the observation-based relationships. Some models show a response of k to drought in temperate forests as a result of impacts of water availability on NPP, growth efficiency or carbon balance dependent mortality as well as soil or litter moisture effects on leaf turnover or fire. However, further direct drought effects such as carbon starvation (only in HYBRID4) or hydraulic failure are usually not taken into account by the investigated GVMs. While they are considered dominant large-scale mortality agents, mortality mechanisms related to insects and pathogens are not explicitly treated in these models.

Carbon residence time dominates uncertainty in terrestrial vegetation responses to future climate and atmospheric CO2.

Future climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 are expected to cause major changes in vegetation structure and function over large fractions of the global land surface. Seven global vegetation models are used to analyze possible responses to future climate simulated by a range of general circulation models run under all four representative concentration pathway scenarios of changing concentrations of greenhouse gases. All 110 simulations predict an increase in global vegetation carbon to 2100, but with substantial variation between vegetation models. For example, at 4 °C of global land surface warming (510-758 ppm of CO2), vegetation carbon increases by 52-477 Pg C (224 Pg C mean), mainly due to CO2 fertilization of photosynthesis. Simulations agree on large regional increases across much of the boreal forest, western Amazonia, central Africa, western China, and southeast Asia, with reductions across southwestern North America, central South America, southern Mediterranean areas, southwestern Africa, and southwestern Australia. Four vegetation models display discontinuities across 4 °C of warming, indicating global thresholds in the balance of positive and negative influences on productivity and biomass. In contrast to previous global vegetation model studies, we emphasize the importance of uncertainties in projected changes in carbon residence times. We find, when all seven models are considered for one representative concentration pathway × general circulation model combination, such uncertainties explain 30% more variation in modeled vegetation carbon change than responses of net primary productivity alone, increasing to 151% for non-HYBRID4 models. A change in research priorities away from production and toward structural dynamics and demographic processes is recommended.

Multisectoral climate impact hotspots in a warming world.

The impacts of global climate change on different aspects of humanity's diverse life-support systems are complex and often difficult to predict. To facilitate policy decisions on mitigation and adaptation strategies, it is necessary to understand, quantify, and synthesize these climate-change impacts, taking into account their uncertainties. Crucial to these decisions is an understanding of how impacts in different sectors overlap, as overlapping impacts increase exposure, lead to interactions of impacts, and are likely to raise adaptation pressure. As a first step we develop herein a framework to study coinciding impacts and identify regional exposure hotspots. This framework can then be used as a starting point for regional case studies on vulnerability and multifaceted adaptation strategies. We consider impacts related to water, agriculture, ecosystems, and malaria at different levels of global warming. Multisectoral overlap starts to be seen robustly at a mean global warming of 3 °C above the 1980-2010 mean, with 11% of the world population subject to severe impacts in at least two of the four impact sectors at 4 °C. Despite these general conclusions, we find that uncertainty arising from the impact models is considerable, and larger than that from the climate models. In a low probability-high impact worst-case assessment, almost the whole inhabited world is at risk for multisectoral pressures. Hence, there is a pressing need for an increased research effort to develop a more comprehensive understanding of impacts, as well as for the development of policy measures under existing uncertainty.

Late Pleistocene climate change and the global expansion of anatomically modern humans.

The extent to which past climate change has dictated the pattern and timing of the out-of-Africa expansion by anatomically modern humans is currently unclear [Stewart JR, Stringer CB (2012) Science 335:1317-1321]. In particular, the incompleteness of the fossil record makes it difficult to quantify the effect of climate. Here, we take a different approach to this problem; rather than relying on the appearance of fossils or archaeological evidence to determine arrival times in different parts of the world, we use patterns of genetic variation in modern human populations to determine the plausibility of past demographic parameters. We develop a spatially explicit model of the expansion of anatomically modern humans and use climate reconstructions over the past 120 ky based on the Hadley Centre global climate model HadCM3 to quantify the possible effects of climate on human demography. The combinations of demographic parameters compatible with the current genetic makeup of worldwide populations indicate a clear effect of climate on past population densities. Our estimates of this effect, based on population genetics, capture the observed relationship between current climate and population density in modern hunter-gatherers worldwide, providing supporting evidence for the realism of our approach. Furthermore, although we did not use any archaeological and anthropological data to inform the model, the arrival times in different continents predicted by our model are also broadly consistent with the fossil and archaeological records. Our framework provides the most accurate spatiotemporal reconstruction of human demographic history available at present and will allow for a greater integration of genetic and archaeological evidence.

Simulating forest productivity along a neotropical elevational transect: temperature variation and carbon use efficiency.

A better understanding of the mechanisms controlling the magnitude and sign of carbon components in tropical forest ecosystems is important for reliable estimation of this important regional component of the global carbon cycle. We used the JULES vegetation model to simulate all components of the carbon balance at six sites along an Andes-Amazon transect across Peru and Brazil and compared the results to published field measurements. In the upper montane zone the model predicted a lack of forest vegetation, indicating a need for better parameterization of the responses of cloud forest vegetation within the model. In the lower montane and lowland zones simulated ecosystem productivity and respiration were predicted with reasonable accuracy, although not always within the error bounds of the observations. Model-predicted carbon use efficiency in this transect surprisingly did not increase with elevation, but remained close to the 'temperate' value 0.5. Upper montane forests were predicted to allocate ~50% of carbon fixation to biomass maintenance and growth, despite available measurements showing that they only allocate ~33%. This may be explained by elevational changes in the balance between growth and maintenance respiration within the forest canopy, as controlled by both temperature- and pressure-mediated processes, which is not yet well represented in current vegetation models.

Wood structure explained by complex spatial source-sink interactions.

Wood is a remarkable material with great cultural, economic, and biogeochemical importance. However, our understanding of its formation is poor. Key properties that have not been explained include the anatomy of growth rings (with consistent transitions from low-density earlywood to high density latewood), strong temperature-dependence of latewood density (used for historical temperature reconstructions), the regulation of cell size, and overall growth-temperature relationships in conifer and ring-porous tree species. We have developed a theoretical framework based on observations on Pinus sylvestris L. in northern Sweden. The observed anatomical properties emerge from our framework as a consequence of interactions in time and space between the production of new cells, the dynamics of developmental zone widths, and the distribution of carbohydrates across the developing wood. Here we find that the diffusion of carbohydrates is critical to determining final ring anatomy, potentially overturning current understanding of how wood formation responds to environmental variability and transforming our interpretation of tree rings as proxies of past climates.

Wood Formation Modeling - A Research Review and Future Perspectives.

Wood formation has received considerable attention across various research fields as a key process to model. Historical and contemporary models of wood formation from various disciplines have encapsulated hypotheses such as the influence of external (e.g., climatic) or internal (e.g., hormonal) factors on the successive stages of wood cell differentiation. This review covers 17 wood formation models from three different disciplines, the earliest from 1968 and the latest from 2020. The described processes, as well as their external and internal drivers and their level of complexity, are discussed. This work is the first systematic cataloging, characterization, and process-focused review of wood formation models. Remaining open questions concerning wood formation processes are identified, and relate to: (1) the extent of hormonal influence on the final tree ring structure; (2) the mechanism underlying the transition from earlywood to latewood in extratropical regions; and (3) the extent to which carbon plays a role as "active" driver or "passive" substrate for growth. We conclude by arguing that wood formation models remain to be fully exploited, with the potential to contribute to studies concerning individual tree carbon sequestration-storage dynamics and regional to global carbon sequestration dynamics in terrestrial vegetation models.

Modeling Ambitions Outpace Observations of Forest Carbon Allocation.

There have been vociferous calls for 'tree-centered' vegetation models to refine predictions of forest carbon (C) cycling. Unfortunately, our global survey at flux-tower sites indicates insufficient empirical data support for this much-needed model development. We urge for a new generation of studies across large environmental gradients that strategically pair long-term ecosystem monitoring with manipulative experiments on mature trees. For this, we outline a versatile experimental framework to build cross-scale data archives of C uptake and allocation to structural, non-structural, and respiratory sinks. Community-wide efforts and discussions are needed to implement this framework, especially in hitherto underrepresented tropical forests. Global coordination and realistic priorities for data collection will thereby be key to achieve and maintain adequate empirical support for tree-centered vegetation modeling.

Terrestrial plant production and climate change.

The likely future increase in atmospheric CO(2) and associated changes in climate will affect global patterns of plant production. Models integrate understanding of the influence of the environment on plant physiological processes and so enable estimates of future changes to be made. Moreover, they allow us to assess the consequences of different assumptions for predictions and so stimulate further research. This paper is a review of the sensitivities of one such model, Hybrid6.5, a detailed mechanistic model of terrestrial primary production. This model is typical of its type, and the sensitivities of the global distribution of predicted production to model assumptions and possible future CO(2) levels and climate are assessed. Sensitivity tests show that leaf phenology has large effects on mean C(3) crop and needleleaved cold deciduous tree production, reducing potential net primary production (NPP) from that obtained using constant maximum annual leaf area index by 32.9% and 41.6%, respectively. Generalized Plant Type (GPT) specific parameterizations, particularly photosynthetic capacity per unit leaf N, affect mean predicted NPP of higher C(3) plants by -22.3% to 27.9%, depending on the GPT, compared to NPP predictions obtained using mean parameter values. An increase in atmospheric CO(2) concentrations from current values to 720 ppm by the end of this century, with associated effects on climate from a typical climate model, is predicted to increase global NPP by 37.3%. Mean increases range from 43.9-52.9% across different C(3) GPTs, whereas the mean NPP of C(4) grass and crop increases by 5.9%. Significant uncertainties concern the extent to which acclimative processes may reduce any potential future increase in primary production and the degree to which any gains are transferred to durable, and especially edible, biomass. Experimentalists and modellers need to work closely together to reduce these uncertainties. A number of research priorities are suggested. 'The green leaf or, to be more precise, the microscopic green grain of chlorophyll, is the focus, the point in the world to which solar energy flows on one side while all the manifestations of life on earth take their source on the other side.' Kliment Arkadievich Timiryazev The conclusions of a century of plant physiology, speech at Moscow University, 12 January 1901.

State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes.

Global impact models represent process-level understanding of how natural and human systems may be affected by climate change. Their projections are used in integrated assessments of climate change. Here we test, for the first time, systematically across many important systems, how well such impact models capture the impacts of extreme climate conditions. Using the 2003 European heat wave and drought as a historical analogue for comparable events in the future, we find that a majority of models underestimate the extremeness of impacts in important sectors such as agriculture, terrestrial ecosystems, and heat-related human mortality, while impacts on water resources and hydropower are overestimated in some river basins; and the spread across models is often large. This has important implications for economic assessments of climate change impacts that rely on these models. It also means that societal risks from future extreme events may be greater than previously thought.

Modelling tropical forest responses to drought and El Niño with a stomatal optimization model based on xylem hydraulics.

The current generation of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) lacks a mechanistic representation of vegetation responses to soil drought, impairing their ability to accurately predict Earth system responses to future climate scenarios and climatic anomalies, such as El Niño events. We propose a simple numerical approach to model plant responses to drought coupling stomatal optimality theory and plant hydraulics that can be used in dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). The model is validated against stand-scale forest transpiration (E) observations from a long-term soil drought experiment and used to predict the response of three Amazonian forest sites to climatic anomalies during the twentieth century. We show that our stomatal optimization model produces realistic stomatal responses to environmental conditions and can accurately simulate how tropical forest E responds to seasonal, and even long-term soil drought. Our model predicts a stronger cumulative effect of climatic anomalies in Amazon forest sites exposed to soil drought during El Niño years than can be captured by alternative empirical drought representation schemes. The contrasting responses between our model and empirical drought factors highlight the utility of hydraulically-based stomatal optimization models to represent vegetation responses to drought and climatic anomalies in DGVMs.This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'The impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial tropical carbon cycle: patterns, mechanisms and implications'.

Modeling Tree Growth Taking into Account Carbon Source and Sink Limitations.

Increasing CO2 concentrations are strongly controlled by the behavior of established forests, which are believed to be a major current sink of atmospheric CO2. There are many models which predict forest responses to environmental changes but they are almost exclusively carbon source (i.e., photosynthesis) driven. Here we present a model for an individual tree that takes into account the intrinsic limits of meristems and cellular growth rates, as well as control mechanisms within the tree that influence its diameter and height growth over time. This new framework is built on process-based understanding combined with differential equations solved by numerical method. Our aim is to construct a model framework of tree growth for replacing current formulations in Dynamic Global Vegetation Models, and so address the issue of the terrestrial carbon sink. Our approach was successfully tested for stands of beech trees in two different sites representing part of a long-term forest yield experiment in Germany. This model provides new insights into tree growth and limits to tree height, and addresses limitations of previous models with respect to sink-limited growth.

The influence of masting phenomenon on growth-climate relationships in trees: explaining the influence of previous summers' climate on ring width.

Tree growth is frequently linked to weather conditions prior to the growing season but our understanding of these lagged climate signatures is still poorly developed. We investigated the influence of masting behaviour on the relationship between growth and climate in European Beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) using a rare long-term dataset of seed production and a new regional tree ring chronology. Fagus sylvatica is a masting species with synchronous variations in seed production which are strongly linked to the temperature in the previous two summers. We noted that the weather conditions associated with years of heavy seed production (mast years) were the same as commonly reported correlations between growth and climate for this species. We tested the hypothesis that a trade-off between growth and reproduction in mast years could be responsible for the observed lagged correlations between growth and previous summers' temperatures. We developed statistical models of growth based on monthly climate variables, and show that summer drought (negative correlation), temperature of the previous summer (negative) and temperature of the summer 2 years previous (positive) are significant predictors of growth. Replacing previous summers' temperature in the model with annual seed production resulted in a model with the same predictive power, explaining the same variance in growth. Masting is a common behaviour in many tree species and these findings therefore have important implications for the interpretation of general climate-growth relationships. Lagged correlations can be the result of processes occurring in the year of growth (that are determined by conditions in previous years), obviating or reducing the need for 'carry-over' processes such as carbohydrate depletion to be invoked to explain this climate signature in tree rings. Masting occurs in many tree species and these findings therefore have important implications for the interpretation of general climate-growth relationships.

POPULATION GENETICS. Genomic evidence for the Pleistocene and recent population history of Native Americans.

How and when the Americas were populated remains contentious. Using ancient and modern genome-wide data, we found that the ancestors of all present-day Native Americans, including Athabascans and Amerindians, entered the Americas as a single migration wave from Siberia no earlier than 23 thousand years ago (ka) and after no more than an 8000-year isolation period in Beringia. After their arrival to the Americas, ancestral Native Americans diversified into two basal genetic branches around 13 ka, one that is now dispersed across North and South America and the other restricted to North America. Subsequent gene flow resulted in some Native Americans sharing ancestry with present-day East Asians (including Siberians) and, more distantly, Australo-Melanesians. Putative "Paleoamerican" relict populations, including the historical Mexican Pericúes and South American Fuego-Patagonians, are not directly related to modern Australo-Melanesians as suggested by the Paleoamerican Model.