Association of HIV and HCV Infection With Carotid Artery Plaque Echomorphology in the MACS/WIHS Combined Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV) are associated with increased risk of carotid artery atherosclerotic plaque and stroke. We examined associations of HIV- and HCV-related factors with echomorphologic features of carotid artery plaque. METHODS: This cross-sectional study included participants from the MACS (Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study)/WIHS (Women's Interagency HIV Study) Combined Cohort Study who underwent high-resolution B-mode carotid artery ultrasound. Plaques were characterized from 6 areas of the right carotid artery. Poisson regression controlling for demographic and cardiometabolic risk factors determined adjusted prevalence ratios (aPRs) and 95% CIs for associations of HIV- and HCV-related factors with echomorphologic features. RESULTS: Of 2655 participants (65% women, median age 44 [interquartile range, 37-50] years), 1845 (70%) were living with HIV, 600 (23%) were living with HCV, and 425 (16%) had carotid plaque. There were 191 plaques identified in 129 (11%) women with HIV, 51 plaques in 32 (7%) women without HIV, 248 plaques in 171 (28%) men with HIV, and 139 plaques in 93 (29%) men without HIV. Adjusted analyses showed that people with HIV and current CD4+ count <200 cells/µL had a significantly higher prevalence of predominantly echolucent plaque (aPR, 1.86 [95% CI, 1.08-3.21]) than those without HIV. HCV infection alone (aPR, 1.86 [95% CI, 1.08-3.19]) and HIV-HCV coinfection (aPR, 1.75 [95% CI, 1.10-2.78]) were each associated with higher prevalence of predominantly echogenic plaque. HIV-HCV coinfection was also associated with higher prevalence of smooth surface plaque (aPR, 2.75 [95% CI, 1.03-7.32]) compared with people without HIV and HCV. CONCLUSIONS: HIV with poor immunologic control, as well as HCV infection, either alone or in the presence of HIV, were associated with different echomorphologic phenotypes of carotid artery plaque.

Lung Function in Women With and Without Human Immunodeficiency Virus.

BACKGROUND: Prior studies have found that human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection is associated with impaired lung function and increased risk of chronic lung disease, but few have included large numbers of women. In this study, we investigate whether HIV infection is associated with differences in lung function in women. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional analysis of participants in the Women's Interagency HIV Study, a racially and ethnically diverse multicenter cohort of women with and without HIV. In 2018-2019, participants at 9 clinical sites were invited to perform spirometry. Single-breath diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide (DLCO) was also measured at selected sites. The primary outcomes were the post-bronchodilator forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) and DLCO. Multivariable regression modeling was used to analyze the association of HIV infection and lung function outcomes after adjustment for confounding exposures. RESULTS: FEV1 measurements from 1489 women (1062 with HIV, 427 without HIV) and DLCO measurements from 671 women (463 with HIV, 208 without HIV) met standards for quality and reproducibility. There was no significant difference in FEV1 between women with and without HIV. Women with HIV had lower DLCO measurements (adjusted difference, -0.73 mL/min/mm Hg; 95% confidence interval, -1.33 to -.14). Among women with HIV, lower nadir CD4 + cell counts and hepatitis C virus infection were associated with lower DLCO measurements. CONCLUSIONS: HIV was associated with impaired respiratory gas exchange in women. Among women with HIV, lower nadir CD4 + cell counts and hepatitis C infection were associated with decreased respiratory gas exchange.

Discrimination and Calibration of the Veterans Aging Cohort Study Index 2.0 for Predicting Mortality Among People With Human Immunodeficiency Virus in North America.

BACKGROUND: The updated Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS) Index 2.0 combines general and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-specific biomarkers to generate a continuous score that accurately discriminates risk of mortality in diverse cohorts of persons with HIV (PWH), but a score alone is difficult to interpret. Using data from the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration (NA-ACCORD), we translate VACS Index 2.0 scores into validated probability estimates of mortality. METHODS: Because complete mortality ascertainment is essential for accurate calibration, we restricted analyses to cohorts with mortality from the National Death Index or equivalent sources. VACS Index 2.0 components were ascertained from October 1999 to April 2018. Mortality was observed up to March 2019. Calibration curves compared predicted (estimated by fitting a gamma model to the score) to observed mortality overall and within subgroups: cohort (VACS/NA-ACCORD subset), sex, age <50 or ≥50 years, race/ethnicity, HIV-1 RNA ≤500 or >500 copies/mL, CD4 count <350 or ≥350 cells/µL, and years 1999-2009 or 2010-2018. Because mortality rates have decreased over time, the final model was limited to 2010-2018. RESULTS: Among 37230 PWH in VACS and 8061 PWH in the NA-ACCORD subset, median age was 53 and 44 years; 3% and 19% were women; and 48% and 39% were black. Discrimination in NA-ACCORD (C-statistic = 0.842 [95% confidence interval {CI}, .830-.854]) was better than in VACS (C-statistic = 0.813 [95% CI, .809-.817]). Predicted and observed mortality largely overlapped in VACS and the NA-ACCORD subset, overall and within subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: Based on this validation, VACS Index 2.0 can reliably estimate probability of all-cause mortality, at various follow-up times, among PWH in North America.

Glucocorticoid Receptor Function and Cognitive Performance in Women With HIV.

OBJECTIVE: Alterations in glucocorticoid receptor (GCR) function may be a risk factor for cognitive complications among older people with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). We evaluated whether HIV serostatus and age modify the GCR function-cognition association among women. METHODS: Eighty women with HIV ( n = 40, <40 years of age [younger]; n = 40, >50 years of age [older]) and 80 HIV-uninfected women ( n = 40 older, n = 40 younger) enrolled in the Women's Interagency HIV Study completed a comprehensive neuropsychological test battery. Peripheral blood mononuclear cells collected concurrent with neuropsychological testing were assessed for GCR function. Multivariable linear regression analyses were conducted to examine whether a) HIV serostatus and age were associated with GCR function, and b) GCR function-cognition associations are moderated by HIV serostatus and age adjusting for relevant covariates. RESULTS: Among older women, higher baseline FKBP5 expression level was associated with lower attention/working memory performance among women with HIV ( B = 6.4, standard error = 1.7, p = .0003) but not in women without HIV infection ( B = -1.7, standard error = 1.9, p = .37). There were no significant HIV serostatus by age interactions on dexamethasone (DEX)-stimulated expression of the genes regulated by the GCR or lipopolysaccharide-stimulated tumor necrosis factor α levels (with or without DEX stimulation; p values > .13). HIV serostatus was associated with GC target genes PER1 ( p = .006) and DUSP1 ( p = .02), but not TSC22D3 ( p = .32), after DEX stimulation. CONCLUSIONS: Collectively, these data suggest that HIV serostatus and age may modify the influence of the GCR, such that the receptor is likely engaged to a similar extent, but the downstream influence of the receptor is altered, potentially through epigenetic modification of target genes.

Factors associated with syphilis seroprevalence in women with and at-risk for HIV infection in the Women's Interagency HIV Study (1994-2015).

OBJECTIVE: Syphilis rates among women in the USA more than doubled between 2014 and 2018. We sought to identify correlates of syphilis among women enrolled in the Women's Interagency HIV Study (WIHS) to inform targeted interventions. METHODS: The retrospective cross-sectional analysis of secondary data included women with HIV or at-risk of HIV who enrolled in the multisite US WIHS cohort between 1994 and 2015. Syphilis screening was performed at baseline. Infection was defined serologically by a positive rapid plasma reagin test with confirmatory treponemal antibodies. Sociodemographic and behavioural characteristics stratified by baseline syphilis status were compared for women enrolled during early (1994-2002) and recent (2011-2015) years. Multivariable binomial modelling with backward selection (p>0.2 for removal) was used to model correlates of syphilis. RESULTS: The study included 3692 women in the early cohort and 1182 women in the recent cohort. Syphilis prevalence at enrolment was 7.5% and 3.7% in each cohort, respectively (p<0.01). In adjusted models for the early cohort, factors associated with syphilis included age, black race, low income, hepatitis C seropositivity, drug use, HIV infection and >100 lifetime sex partners (all p<0.05). In the recent cohort, age (adjusted prevalence OR (aPOR) 0.2, 95% CI 0.1 to 0.6 for 30-39 years; aPOR 0.5, 95% CI 0.2 to 1.0 for 40-49 years vs ≥50 years), hepatitis C seropositivity (aPOR 2.1, 95% CI 1.0 to 4.1) and problem alcohol use (aPOR 2.2, 95% CI 1.1 to 4.4) were associated with infection. CONCLUSIONS: Syphilis screening is critical for women with HIV and at-risk of HIV. Targeted prevention efforts should focus on women with hepatitis C and problem alcohol use.

Timing of Antiretroviral Therapy Initiation and Risk of Cancer Among Persons Living With Human Immunodeficiency Virus.

BACKGROUND: Persons living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV; PLWH) experience a high burden of cancer. It remains unknown which cancer types are reduced in PLWH with earlier initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART). METHODS: We evaluated AIDS-free, ART-naive PLWH during 1996-2014 from 22 cohorts participating in the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design. PLWH were followed from first observed CD4 of 350-500 cells/µL (baseline) until incident cancer, death, lost-to-follow-up, or December 2014. Outcomes included 6 cancer groups and 5 individual cancers that were confirmed by chart review or cancer registry linkage. We evaluated the effect of earlier (in the first 6 months after baseline) versus deferred ART initiation on cancer risk. Marginal structural models were used with inverse probability weighting to account for time-dependent confounding and informative right-censoring, with weights informed by subject's age, sex, cohort, baseline year, race/ethnicity, HIV transmission risk, smoking, viral hepatitis, CD4, and AIDS diagnoses. RESULTS: Protective results for earlier ART were found for any cancer (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0.57; 95% confidence interval [CI], .37-.86), AIDS-defining cancers (HR 0.23; 95% CI, .11-.49), any virus-related cancer (HR 0.30; 95% CI, .16-.54), Kaposi sarcoma (HR 0.25; 95% CI, .10-.61), and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (HR 0.22; 95% CI, .06-.73). By 15 years, there was also an observed reduced risk with earlier ART for virus-related NADCs (0.6% vs 2.3%; adjusted risk difference -1.6; 95% CI, -2.8, -.5). CONCLUSIONS: Earlier ART initiation has potential to reduce the burden of virus-related cancers in PLWH but not non-AIDS-defining cancers (NADCs) without known or suspected viral etiology.

Regulatory CD4+ T Cells Recognize Major Histocompatibility Complex Class II Molecule-Restricted Peptide Epitopes of Apolipoprotein B.

BACKGROUND: CD4+ T cells play an important role in atherosclerosis, but their antigen specificity is poorly understood. Immunization with apolipoprotein B (ApoB, core protein of low density lipoprotein) is known to be atheroprotective in animal models. Here, we report on a human APOB peptide, p18, that is sequence-identical in mouse ApoB and binds to both mouse and human major histocompatibility complex class II molecules. METHODS: We constructed p18 tetramers to detect human and mouse APOB-specific T cells and assayed their phenotype by flow cytometry including CD4 lineage transcription factors, intracellular cytokines, and T cell receptor activation. Apolipoprotein E-deficient ( Apoe-/-) mice were vaccinated with p18 peptide or adjuvants alone, and atherosclerotic burden in the aorta was determined. RESULTS: In human peripheral blood mononuclear cells from donors without cardiovascular disease, p18 specific CD4+ T cells detected by a new human leukocyte antigen-antigen D related-p18 tetramers were mostly Foxp3+ regulatory T cells (Tregs). Donors with subclinical cardiovascular disease as detected by carotid artery ultrasound had Tregs coexpressing retinoic acid-related orphan receptor gamma t or T-bet, which were both almost absent in donors without cardiovascular disease. In Apoe-/- mice, immunization with p18 induced Tregs and reduced atherosclerotic lesions. After peptide restimulation, responding CD4+ T cells identified by Nur77-GFP (green fluorescent protein) were highly enriched in Tregs. A new mouse I-Ab-p18 tetramer identified the expansion of p18-specific CD4+ T cells on vaccination, which were enriched for interleukin-10-producing Tregs. CONCLUSIONS: These findings show that APOB p18-specific CD4+ T cells are mainly Tregs in healthy donors, but coexpress other CD4 lineage transcription factors in donors with subclinical cardiovascular disease. This study identifies ApoB peptide 18 as the first Treg epitope in human and mouse atherosclerosis.

The Changing Science of HIV Epidemiology in the United States.

In 1984, a large prospective study of the natural history of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (MACS), was established; 10 years later, the Women's Interagency HIV Study (WIHS) was launched. Motivated by the merger and redesign of these long-standing HIV cohort studies in 2019, we review ways in which HIV epidemiology in the United States has transformed over the lives of these studies and how this evolution has influenced planning for enrollment and follow-up. We highlight changes that have occurred in the 3 major domains that are central to epidemiologic science: changes to key populations at highest risk for HIV, refinements in measurement and shifts in the outcomes of interest, and a new era in the tools and approaches that epidemiologists use to synthesize evidence from measurements made on populations. By embracing foundational principles with modern methods, the epidemiologic approach of analyzing the causes and distributions of diseases in contemporaneous populations will continue to advance HIV science over the next decade.

Life-Expectancy Disparities Among Adults With HIV in the United States and Canada: The Impact of a Reduction in Drug- and Alcohol-Related Deaths Using the Lives Saved Simulation Model.

Improvements in life expectancy among people living with human immunodeficiency virus (PLWH) receiving antiretroviral treatment in the United States and Canada might differ among key populations. Given the difference in substance use among key populations and the current opioid epidemic, drug- and alcohol-related deaths might be contributing to the disparities in life expectancy. We sought to estimate life expectancy at age 20 years in key populations (and their comparison groups) in 3 time periods (2004-2007, 2008-2011, and 2012-2015) and the potential increase in expected life expectancy with a simulated 20% reduction in drug- and alcohol-related deaths using the novel Lives Saved Simulation model. Among 92,289 PLWH, life expectancy increased in all key populations and comparison groups from 2004-2007 to 2012-2015. Disparities in survival of approximately a decade persisted among black versus white men who have sex with men and people with (vs. without) a history of injection drug use. A 20% reduction in drug- and alcohol-related mortality would have the greatest life-expectancy benefit for black men who have sex with men, white women, and people with a history of injection drug use. Our findings suggest that preventing drug- and alcohol-related deaths among PLWH could narrow disparities in life expectancy among some key populations, but other causes of death must be addressed to further narrow the disparities.

Multimorbidity Among Persons Living with Human Immunodeficiency Virus in the United States.

Background: Age-associated conditions are increasingly common among persons living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) (PLWH). A longitudinal investigation of their accrual is needed given their implications on clinical care complexity. We examined trends in the co-occurrence of age-associated conditions among PLWH receiving clinical care, and differences in their prevalence by demographic subgroup. Methods: This cohort study was nested within the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design. Participants from HIV outpatient clinics were antiretroviral therapy-exposed PLWH receiving clinical care (ie, ≥1 CD4 count) in the United States during 2000-2009. Multimorbidity was irreversible, defined as having ≥2: hypertension, diabetes mellitus, chronic kidney disease, hypercholesterolemia, end-stage liver disease, or non-AIDS-related cancer. Adjusted prevalence ratios (aPR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) comparing demographic subgroups were obtained by Poisson regression with robust error variance, using generalized estimating equations for repeated measures. Results: Among 22969 adults, 79% were male, 36% were black, and the median baseline age was 40 years (interquartile range, 34-46 years). Between 2000 and 2009, multimorbidity prevalence increased from 8.2% to 22.4% (Ptrend < .001). Adjusting for age, this trend was still significant (P < .001). There was no difference by sex, but blacks were less likely than whites to have multimorbidity (aPR, 0.87; 95% CI, .77-.99). Multimorbidity was the highest among heterosexuals, relative to men who have sex with men (aPR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.01-1.34). Hypertension and hypercholesterolemia most commonly co-occurred. Conclusions: Multimorbidity prevalence has increased among PLWH. Comorbidity prevention and multisubspecialty management of increasingly complex healthcare needs will be vital to ensuring that they receive needed care.

Cytokines Elevated in HIV Elite Controllers Reduce HIV Replication In Vitro and Modulate HIV Restriction Factor Expression.

A subset of HIV-infected individuals termed elite controllers (ECs) maintain CD4+ T cell counts and control viral replication in the absence of antiretroviral therapy (ART). Systemic cytokine responses may differentiate ECs from subjects with uncontrolled viral replication or from those who require ART to suppress viral replication. We measured 87 cytokines in four groups of women: 73 ECs, 42 with pharmacologically suppressed viremia (ART), 42 with uncontrolled viral replication (noncontrollers [NCs]), and 48 HIV-uninfected (NEG) subjects. Four cytokines were elevated in ECs but not NCs or ART subjects: CCL14, CCL21, CCL27, and XCL1. In addition, median stromal cell-derived factor-1 (SDF-1) levels were 43% higher in ECs than in NCs. The combination of the five cytokines suppressed R5 and X4 virus replication in resting CD4+ T cells, and individually SDF-1ß, CCL14, and CCL27 suppressed R5 virus replication, while SDF-1ß, CCL21, and CCL14 suppressed X4 virus replication. Functional studies revealed that the combination of the five cytokines upregulated CD69 and CCR5 and downregulated CXCR4 and CCR7 on CD4+ T cells. The CD69 and CXCR4 effects were driven by SDF-1, while CCL21 downregulated CCR7. The combination of the EC-associated cytokines induced expression of the anti-HIV host restriction factors IFITM1 and IFITM2 and suppressed expression of RNase L and SAMHD1. These results identify a set of cytokines that are elevated in ECs and define their effects on cellular activation, HIV coreceptor expression, and innate restriction factor expression. This cytokine pattern may be a signature characteristic of HIV-1 elite control, potentially important for HIV therapeutic and curative strategies.IMPORTANCE Approximately 1% of people infected with HIV control virus replication without taking antiviral medications. These subjects, termed elite controllers (ECs), are known to have stronger immune responses targeting HIV than the typical HIV-infected subject, but the exact mechanisms of how their immune responses control infection are not known. In this study, we identified five soluble immune signaling molecules (cytokines) in the blood that were higher in ECs than in subjects with typical chronic HIV infection. We demonstrated that these cytokines can activate CD4+ T cells, the target cells for HIV infection. Furthermore, these five EC-associated cytokines could change expression levels of intrinsic resistance factors, or molecules inside the target cell that fight HIV infection. This study is significant in that it identified cytokines elevated in subjects with a good immune response against HIV and defined potential mechanisms as to how these cytokines could induce resistance to the virus in target cells.

Association of Macrophage Inflammation Biomarkers With Progression of Subclinical Carotid Artery Atherosclerosis in HIV-Infected Women and Men.

Background: Monocytes and monocyte-derived macrophages promote atherosclerosis through increased inflammation and vascular remodeling. This may be especially true in chronic human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. Methods: We examined 778 women (74% HIV+) in the Women's Interagency HIV Study and 503 men (65% HIV+) in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study who underwent repeated B-mode carotid artery ultrasound imaging in 2004-2013. We assessed baseline associations of the serum macrophage inflammation markers soluble (s)CD163, sCD14, galectin-3 (Gal-3), and Gal-3 binding protein (Gal-3BP) with carotid plaque formation (focal intima-media thickness >1.5 mm) over 7 years. Results: Marker levels were higher in HIV+ persons versus HIV- persons. Presence of focal plaque increased over time: from 8% to 15% in women, and 24% to 34% in men. After adjustment for demographic, behavioral, and cardiometabolic factors, and CRP and interleukin-6, each standard deviation increase in sCD14 was associated with increased plaque formation (risk ratio [RR] 1.24, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.07-1.43). This pattern was consistentby sex. sCD163 was associated with plaque formation in virally suppressed HIV+ men (RR 1.52, 95% CI 1.04-2.22); Gal-3BP and Gal-3 were not associated with increased plaque. Conclusions: sCD14 and sCD163 may play important roles in atherogenesis among HIV+ persons.

First Occurrence of Diabetes, Chronic Kidney Disease, and Hypertension Among North American HIV-Infected Adults, 2000-2013.

Background: There remains concern regarding the occurrence of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) among individuals aging with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), but few studies have described whether disparities between demographic subgroups are present among individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART) with access to care. Methods: We assessed the first documented occurrence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM), chronic kidney disease (CKD), and treated hypertension (HTN) by age, sex, and race within the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD). HIV-infected adults (≥18 years) who initiated ART were observed for first NCD occurrence between 1 January 2000 and 31 December 2013. Cumulative incidences as of age 70 were estimated accounting for the competing risk of death; Poisson regression was used to compare rates of NCD occurrence by demographic subgroup. Results: We included >50000 persons with >250000 person-years of follow-up. Median follow-up was 4.7 (interquartile range, 2.4­8.1) years. Rates of first occurrence (per 100 person-years) were 1.2 for DM, 0.6 for CKD, and 2.6 for HTN. Relative to non-black women, the cumulative incidences were increased in black women (68% vs 51% for HTN, 52% vs 41% for DM, and 38% vs 35% for CKD; all P < .001); this disparity was also found among men (73% vs 60% for HTN, 44% vs 34% for DM, and 30% vs 25% for CKD; all P < .001). Conclusions: Racial disparities in the occurrence of DM, CKD, and HTN emphasize the need for prevention and treatment options for these HIV populations receiving care in North America.

Incidence of AIDS-Defining Opportunistic Infections in a Multicohort Analysis of HIV-infected Persons in the United States and Canada, 2000-2010.

BACKGROUND: There are few recent data on the rates of AIDS-defining opportunistic infections (OIs) among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients in care in the United States and Canada. METHODS: We studied HIV-infected participants in 16 cohorts in the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD) during 2000-2010. After excluding 16 737 (21%) with any AIDS-defining clinical events documented before NA-ACCORD enrollment, we analyzed incident OIs among the remaining 63 541 persons, most of whom received antiretroviral therapy during the observation. We calculated incidence rates per 100 person-years of observation (hereafter, "person-years") with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the first occurrence of any OI and select individual OIs during 2000-2003, 2004-2007, and 2008-2010. RESULTS: A total of 63 541 persons contributed 261 573 person-years, of whom 5836 (9%) developed at least 1 OI. The incidence rate of any first OI decreased over the 3 observation periods, with 3.0 cases, 2.4 cases, and 1.5 cases per 100 person-years of observation during 2000-2003, 2004-2007, and 2008-2010, respectively (Ptrend<.001); the rates of most individual OIs decreased as well. During 2008-2010, the leading OIs included Pneumocystis jiroveci pneumonia, esophageal candidiasis, and disseminated Mycobacterium avium complex or Mycobacterium kansasii infection. CONCLUSIONS: For HIV-infected persons in care during 2000-2010, rates of first OI were relatively low and generally declined over this time.

From Smallpox to Big Data: The Next 100 Years of Epidemiologic Methods.

For more than a century, epidemiology has seen major shifts in both focus and methodology. Taking into consideration the explosion of "big data," the advent of more sophisticated data collection and analytical tools, and the increased interest in evidence-based solutions, we present a framework that summarizes 3 fundamental domains of epidemiologic methods that are relevant for the understanding of both historical contributions and future directions in public health. First, the manner in which populations and their follow-up are defined is expanding, with greater interest in online populations whose definition does not fit the usual classification by person, place, and time. Second, traditional data collection methods, such as population-based surveillance and individual interviews, have been supplemented with advances in measurement. From biomarkers to mobile health, innovations in the measurement of exposures and diseases enable refined accuracy of data collection. Lastly, the comparison of populations is at the heart of epidemiologic methodology. Risk factor epidemiology, prediction methods, and causal inference strategies are areas in which the field is continuing to make significant contributions to public health. The framework presented herein articulates the multifaceted ways in which epidemiologic methods make such contributions and can continue to do so as we embark upon the next 100 years.

Comparison of risk and age at diagnosis of myocardial infarction, end-stage renal disease, and non-AIDS-defining cancer in HIV-infected versus uninfected adults.

BACKGROUND: Although it has been shown that human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected adults are at greater risk for aging-associated events, it remains unclear as to whether these events happen at similar, or younger ages, in HIV-infected compared with uninfected adults. The objective of this study was to compare the median age at, and risk of, incident diagnosis of 3 age-associated diseases in HIV-infected and demographically similar uninfected adults. METHODS: The study was nested in the clinical prospective Veterans Aging Cohort Study of HIV-infected and demographically matched uninfected veterans, from 1 April 2003 to 31 December 2010. The outcomes were validated diagnoses of myocardial infarction (MI), end-stage renal disease (ESRD), and non-AIDS-defining cancer (NADC). Differences in mean age at, and risk of, diagnosis by HIV status were estimated using multivariate linear regression models and Cox proportional hazards models, respectively. RESULTS: A total of 98 687 (31% HIV-infected and 69% uninfected) adults contributed >450 000 person-years and 689 MI, 1135 ESRD, and 4179 NADC incident diagnoses. Mean age at MI (adjusted mean difference, -0.11; 95% confidence interval [CI], -.59 to .37 years) and NADC (adjusted mean difference, -0.10 [95% CI, -.30 to .10] years) did not differ by HIV status. HIV-infected adults were diagnosed with ESRD at an average age of 5.5 months younger than uninfected adults (adjusted mean difference, -0.46 [95% CI, -.86 to -.07] years). HIV-infected adults had a greater risk of all 3 outcomes compared with uninfected adults after accounting for important confounders. CONCLUSIONS: HIV-infected adults had a higher risk of these age-associated events, but they occurred at similar ages than those without HIV.

HIV Infection Is Associated With Progression of Subclinical Carotid Atherosclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Individuals infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) live longer as a result of effective treatment, but long-term consequences of infection, treatment, and immunological dysfunction are poorly understood. METHODS: We prospectively examined 1011 women (74% HIV-infected) in the Women's Interagency HIV Study and 811 men (65% HIV-infected) in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study who underwent repeated B-mode carotid artery ultrasound imaging in 2004-2013. Outcomes included changes in right common carotid artery intima-media thickness (CCA-IMT) and new focal carotid artery plaque formation (IMT >1.5 mm) over median 7 years. We assessed the association between HIV serostatus and progression of subclinical atherosclerosis, adjusting for demographic, behavioral, and cardiometabolic risk factors. RESULTS: Unadjusted mean CCA-IMT increased (725 to 752 µm in women, 757 to 790 µm in men), but CCA-IMT progression did not differ by HIV serostatus, either in combined or sex-specific analyses. Focal plaque prevalence increased from 8% to 15% in women and 25% to 34% in men over 7 years. HIV-infected individuals had 1.6-fold greater risk of new plaque formation compared with HIV-uninfected individuals (relative risk [RR] 1.61, 95% CI, 1.12-2.32), adjusting for cardiometabolic factors; the association was similar by sex. Increased plaque occurred even among persistently virologically suppressed HIV-infected individuals compared with uninfected individuals (RR 1.56, 95% CI, 1.07-2.27). HIV-infected individuals with baseline CD4+ ≥ 500 cells/µL had plaque risk not statistically different from uninfected individuals. CONCLUSIONS: HIV infection is associated with greater increases in focal plaque among women and men, potentially mediated by factors associated with immunodeficiency or HIV replication at levels below current limits of detection.

Laboratory Measures as Proxies for Primary Care Encounters: Implications for Quantifying Clinical Retention Among HIV-Infected Adults in North America.

Because of limitations in the availability of data on primary care encounters, patient retention in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) care is often estimated using laboratory measurement dates as proxies for clinical encounters, leading to possible outcome misclassification. This study included 83,041 HIV-infected adults from 14 clinical cohorts in the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD) who had ≥1 HIV primary care encounters during 2000-2010, contributing 468,816 person-years of follow-up. Encounter-based retention (REB) was defined as ≥2 encounters in a calendar year, ≥90 days apart. Laboratory-based retention (RLB) was defined similarly, using the dates of CD4-positive cell counts or HIV-1 RNA measurements. Percentage of agreement and the κ statistic were used to characterize agreement between RLB and REB. Logistic regression with generalized estimating equations and stabilized inverse-probability-of-selection weights was used to elucidate temporal trends and the discriminatory power of RLB as a predictor of REB, accounting for age, sex, race/ethnicity, primary HIV risk factor, and cohort site as potential confounders. Both REB and RLB increased from 2000 to 2010 (from 67% to 78% and from 65% to 77%, respectively), though REB was higher than RLB throughout (P < 0.01). RLB agreed well with REB (80%-86% agreement; κ = 0.55-0.62, P < 0.01) and had a strong, imperfect ability to discriminate between persons retained and not retained in care by REB (C statistic: C = 0.81, P < 0.05). As a proxy for REB, RLB had a sensitivity and specificity of 84% and 77%, respectively, with misclassification error of 18%.

Random survival forests for competing risks.

We introduce a new approach to competing risks using random forests. Our method is fully non-parametric and can be used for selecting event-specific variables and for estimating the cumulative incidence function. We show that the method is highly effective for both prediction and variable selection in high-dimensional problems and in settings such as HIV/AIDS that involve many competing risks.

Disparities in the quality of HIV care when using US Department of Health and Human Services indicators.

We estimated US Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS)-approved human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) indicators. Among patients, 71% were retained in care, 82% were prescribed treatment, and 78% had HIV RNA ≤200 copies/mL; younger adults, women, blacks, and injection drug users had poorer outcomes. Interventions are needed to reduce retention- and treatment-related disparities.