South Asian black carbon is threatening the water sustainability of the Asian Water Tower.

Long-range transport of black carbon from South Asia to the Tibetan plateau and its deposition on glaciers directly enhances glacier melt. Here we find South Asian black carbon also has an indirect effect on the plateau's glaciers shrinkage by acting to reduce the water supply over the southern Tibetan plateau. Black carbon enhances vertical convection and cloud condensation, which results in water vapor depletion over the Indian subcontinent that is the main moisture flux source for the southern Tibetan plateau. Increasing concentrations of black carbon causes a decrease in summer precipitation over the southern Tibetan plateau, resulting in 11.0% glacier deficit mass balance on average from 2007 to 2016; this loss rises to 22.1% in the Himalayas. The direct (accelerated melt) and indirect (mass supply decrease) effects of black carbon are driving the glacial mass decline of the so-called "Asian Water Tower".

Visualization and interpretation of birth defects data using linked micromap plots.

BACKGROUND: Many states have implemented birth defects surveillance systems to monitor and disseminate information regarding birth defects. However, many of these states rely on tabular methods to disseminate statistical birth defects summaries. An innovative presentation technique for birth defect data that portrays the information in a joint geographical and statistical context is the linked micromap (LM) plot. METHODS: LM plots were generated for oral cleft data at two geographical resolutions-USA states and counties of Utah. The LM plots also included demographic and behavioral risk data. RESULTS: A LM plot for the USA reveals spatial patterns indicating higher oral cleft occurrence in the southwest and the midwest and lower occurrence in the east. The LM plot also indicates relationships between oral cleft occurrence and maternal smoking rates and the proportion of American Indians and Alaskan Natives. In particular, the five states with the highest oral cleft occurrence had a higher proportion of American Indians and Alaskan Natives. Among the 15 states with the highest oral cleft occurrence, nine had a smoking rate of 16% or higher while among the 15 states with the lowest oral cleft occurrence only one state had a smoking rate greater than 16%. The LM plot for the state of Utah shows no clear geographic pattern, due perhaps to a relatively small number of cases in a limited geographic area. CONCLUSIONS: LM plots are effective in representing complex and large volume birth defects data. Integration to birth defects surveillance systems will improve both presentation and interpretation.

Increasing water cycle extremes in California and in relation to ENSO cycle under global warming.

Since the winter of 2013-2014, California has experienced its most severe drought in recorded history, causing statewide water stress, severe economic loss and an extraordinary increase in wildfires. Identifying the effects of global warming on regional water cycle extremes, such as the ongoing drought in California, remains a challenge. Here we analyse large-ensemble and multi-model simulations that project the future of water cycle extremes in California as well as to understand those associations that pertain to changing climate oscillations under global warming. Both intense drought and excessive flooding are projected to increase by at least 50% towards the end of the twenty-first century; this projected increase in water cycle extremes is associated with a strengthened relation to El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO)--in particular, extreme El Niño and La Niña events that modulate California's climate not only through its warm and cold phases but also its precursor patterns.