RESUMEN
OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of the incidence rates of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) in the state of Paraná, Brazil. METHODS: An ecological study with an analytical component of time series analysis was conducted in the state of Paraná from 2007 to 2022. The data source was the Notifiable Diseases Information System. To study the trend, the Prais-Winsten generalized linear regression model was used by decomposing the time series, and for spatial analysis, the Moran's index was applied. RESULTS: The total sample consisted of 50,676 HIV/AIDS records. The incidence rate showed an increasing trend, with an average growth of 2.14% [95% confidence interval - 95%CI 1.16-3.13] per month. From 2007 to 2014 and from 2015 to 2022, the average number of cases in the state was 105.64 and 159.20 per 100,000 inhabitants, respectively, with significant variation among municipalities. Spatial clusters of high risk persisted in the metropolitan region, the capital, and coastal areas, and a new cluster was observed in the northern region of the state. CONCLUSION: The incidence rates of HIV/AIDS showed an upward trend over time. The number of cases varied considerably in some municipalities, especially in the coastal region. Spatial analysis revealed geospatial patterns of high risk in the main metropolitan areas of Paraná: Curitiba (including the coastal area), Londrina, and Maringá, which share characteristics such as a high degree of urbanization and ongoing economic development.
Asunto(s)
Síndrome de Inmunodeficiencia Adquirida , Infecciones por VIH , Análisis Espacio-Temporal , Brasil/epidemiología , Humanos , Síndrome de Inmunodeficiencia Adquirida/epidemiología , Incidencia , Infecciones por VIH/epidemiología , Factores de Tiempo , Masculino , Femenino , AdultoRESUMEN
ABSTRACT Objective: The aim of this study was to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of the incidence rates of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) in the state of Paraná, Brazil. Methods: An ecological study with an analytical component of time series analysis was conducted in the state of Paraná from 2007 to 2022. The data source was the Notifiable Diseases Information System. To study the trend, the Prais-Winsten generalized linear regression model was used by decomposing the time series, and for spatial analysis, the Moran's index was applied. Results: The total sample consisted of 50,676 HIV/AIDS records. The incidence rate showed an increasing trend, with an average growth of 2.14% [95% confidence interval - 95%CI 1.16-3.13] per month. From 2007 to 2014 and from 2015 to 2022, the average number of cases in the state was 105.64 and 159.20 per 100,000 inhabitants, respectively, with significant variation among municipalities. Spatial clusters of high risk persisted in the metropolitan region, the capital, and coastal areas, and a new cluster was observed in the northern region of the state. Conclusion: The incidence rates of HIV/AIDS showed an upward trend over time. The number of cases varied considerably in some municipalities, especially in the coastal region. Spatial analysis revealed geospatial patterns of high risk in the main metropolitan areas of Paraná: Curitiba (including the coastal area), Londrina, and Maringá, which share characteristics such as a high degree of urbanization and ongoing economic development.
RESUMO Objetivo: Este estudo teve como objetivo analisar a evolução espaçotemporal das taxas de incidência do vírus da imunodeficiência humana (HIV) e da síndrome da imunodeficiência adquirida (AIDS) no estado do Paraná, Brasil. Métodos: Foi realizado um estudo ecológico com componente analítico de séries temporais e análise espacial no estado do Paraná, de 2007 a 2022. A fonte de dados foi o Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação. Para estudar a tendência, foi utilizado o modelo de regressão linear generalizada de Prais-Winsten por meio da decomposição de séries temporais e, para a análise espacial, foi aplicado o Índice de Moran. Resultados: A amostra total foi composta de 50.676 registros de HIV/AIDS. A taxa de incidência apresentou tendência crescente, com crescimento médio de 2,14% (intervalo de confiança de 95% — IC95% 1,16-3,13) ao mês. Nos períodos de 2007 a 2014 e 2015 a 2022, a média de casos no estado foi de 105,64 e 159,20 a cada 100 mil habitantes, respectivamente, com importantes variações entre os municípios. Agrupamentos espaciais de alto risco permaneceram na região metropolitana à capital e litoral e um novo agrupamento foi observado à região norte do estado. Conclusão: As taxas de incidência do HIV/AIDS apresentaram tendência temporal crescente. O número de casos variou substancialmente em alguns municípios, principalmente naqueles localizados na região litorânea. A análise espacial revelou padrões geoespaciais de alto risco nas principais regiões metropolitanas do Paraná: Curitiba (abrange o litoral), Londrina e Maringá, as quais compartilham características como elevado grau de urbanização e constante desenvolvimento econômico.
RESUMEN
Abstract Objectives: evaluate the association between the maternal near miss rate (TNMM) and sociodemographic and health care factors. Methods: this is an aggregated, cross- sectional epidemiological survey, with regression analysis and spatial analysis, with the units of analysis being the 399 municipalities that make up the four health macro- regions in the state of Paraná, Brazil. Data from the years 2018 to 2021 were obtained through the state maternal near miss report and monitoring system. Results: the state's total TNMM was 6.4 per 1,000 live births, with an increasing trend during the studied period (p<0.001). Sociodemographic and healthcare factors were not associated with TNMM, except for municipalities with a higher degree of urbanization (β adjusted=0.022; CI95%=0.002-0.041) and located in the northern health macro-region (β adjusted=12.352; CI95%= 10.779-15.099), demonstrated by clusters with high and positive associations (high-high). Conclusion: the lack of association with sociodemographic and care factors may be due to their low effect on near miss, or the underreporting of near miss cases in the state. The differences found can be justified by the organization of health services and the intense regionalization of municipalities belonging to the macronorth, which have a better near miss report culture.
Resumo Objetivos: avaliar a associação existente entre a taxa de near miss materno (TNMM) com fatores sociodemográficos e assistenciais de saúde. Métodos: trata-se de uma pesquisa epidemiológica agregada, transversal, com análises de regressão e análise espacial, sendo as unidades de análise os 399 municípios que compõem as quatro macrorregiões de saúde do estado do Paraná, Brasil. Os dados provenientes dos anos de 2018 a 2021 foram obtidos por meio do sistema estadual de notificação e monitoramento do near miss materno. Resultados: a TNMM total do estado foi de 6,4 por 1.000 nascidos-vivos, com tendência de aumento no período estudado (p<0,001). Fatores sociodemográficos e assistenciais não se associaram com a TNMM, exceto municípios com maior grau de urbanização (β ajustado=0,022; IC95%= 0,002-0,041) e localizados na macrorregião norte de saúde (β ajustado=12,352; IC95%= 10,779; 15,099), demonstrado por clusters com associações altas e positivas (high- high). Conclusão: a ausência de associação com os fatores sociodemográficos e assistenciais podem decorrer do baixo efeito dos mesmos sobre o near miss, ou à subnotificação de casos de near miss materno no estado. As diferenças encontradas podem ser justificadas pela organização dos serviços de saúde e intensa regionalização dos municípios pertencentes à macronorte, os quais apresentam melhor cultura de notificação de near miss.