Projected changes in ultraviolet index and UV doses over the twenty-first century: impacts of ozone and aerosols from CMIP6.

This study evaluated the health-related weighted ultraviolet radiation (UVR) due to the total ozone content (TOC) and the aerosol optical depth (AOD) changes. Clear-sky Ultraviolet Index (UVI), daily doses, and exposure times for erythema induction (Dery and Tery) and vitamin D synthesis (DvitD and TvitD) were computed by a radiative transfer estimator. TOC and AOD data were provided by six Earth System Models (ESMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). For projections, we consider four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios-SSPs (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5)-and two time-slices (near: 2041-2060 and far future: 2081-2100). UVR projections showed pronounced changes for the summer hemispheres in the far future. TOC increases in mid- and high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere caused decreases in UVR at the summer solstice. However, projections did not indicate sun-safe exposure conditions in South America, Australia, and Southern Africa. On the contrary, exposure around solar noon from 10 to 20 min will still be sufficient to induce erythema in skin type III individuals throughout this century. In southern Argentina and Chile, the UVR insufficiency for vitamin D synthesis at solar noon in skin type III remains the same during this century at the winter solstice. In the Northern Hemisphere, UVI and Dery at the summer solstice should remain high (UVI ≥ 8; Dery ~ 7.0 kJ m-2) in highly populated locations. Above 45 °N, UVR levels cannot be enough to synthesize vitamin D in skin type III during the boreal winter. Our results show that climate change will affect human health through excess or lack of solar UVR availability.

COVID-19 Crisis Reduces Free Tropospheric Ozone Across the Northern Hemisphere.

Throughout spring and summer 2020, ozone stations in the northern extratropics recorded unusually low ozone in the free troposphere. From April to August, and from 1 to 8 kilometers altitude, ozone was on average 7% (≈4 nmol/mol) below the 2000-2020 climatological mean. Such low ozone, over several months, and at so many stations, has not been observed in any previous year since at least 2000. Atmospheric composition analyses from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service and simulations from the NASA GMI model indicate that the large 2020 springtime ozone depletion in the Arctic stratosphere contributed less than one-quarter of the observed tropospheric anomaly. The observed anomaly is consistent with recent chemistry-climate model simulations, which assume emissions reductions similar to those caused by the COVID-19 crisis. COVID-19 related emissions reductions appear to be the major cause for the observed reduced free tropospheric ozone in 2020.

Improved ozone DIAL retrievals in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere using an optimal estimation method.

We have implemented a first-principle optimal estimation method to retrieve ozone density profiles using simultaneously tropospheric and stratospheric differential absorption lidar (DIAL) measurements. Our retrieval extends from 2.5 km to about 42 km in altitude, and in the upper troposphere and the lower stratosphere (UTLS) it shows a significant improvement in the overlapping region, where the optimal estimation method (OEM) can retrieve a single ozone profile consistent with the measurements from both lidars. Here stratospheric and tropospheric measurements from the Observatoire de Haute Provence are used, and the OEM retrievals in the UTLS region compared with coincident ozonesonde measurements. The retrieved ozone profiles have a small statistical uncertainty in the UTLS region relative to individual determinations of ozone from each lidar, and the maximum statistical uncertainty does not exceed a maximum of 7%.

Projected changes in clear-sky erythemal and vitamin D effective UV doses for Europe over the period 2006 to 2100.

The benefits and the harmful effects of solar ultraviolet radiation (UVR) exposure have been well discussed. Most studies show concern for the solar overexposure in the tropics and low latitude sites and its scarcity at higher latitudes. Both cases are of concern, the first for diseases such as skin cancer and the second for the lack of vitamin D production in the skin. In this study, we evaluate the influence of climate change scenarios on the total ozone content (TOC) and typical aerosol properties, such as the optical depth (AOD) and single scattering albedo (SSA), over Europe. From these parameters, we estimate the erythemal and the vitamin D effective UVR doses from 2006 to 2100. Our results indicate a small reduction of the UVR daily doses caused by the ozone layer recovery and partially compensated by an AOD diminution through this century. The attenuation will be larger at high latitudes, during the springtime and for more polluted scenarios during this century. However, this diminution should not be sufficient to provide a protection condition for erythema. On the other hand, at higher latitudes, it possibly contributes to a relevant increase in the exposure time necessary for the synthesis of vitamin D, mainly during autumn and spring seasons.

Comparison between UV index measurements performed by research-grade and consumer-products instruments.

Ultraviolet radiation (UVR) exposure, skin cancer and other related diseases are not just subjects of scientific literature. Nowadays, these themes are also discussed on television, newspapers and magazines for the general public. Consequently, the interest in prevention of sun overexposure is increasing, as the knowledge of photoprotection methods and UVR levels. The ultraviolet index (UVI) is a well-known tool recommended by the World Health Organization to avoid harmful effects of UV sunlight. UVI forecasts are provided by many national meteorological services, but local UVI measurements can provide a more realistic and appropriate evaluation of UVR levels. Indeed, as scientific instruments are very expensive and difficult to manipulate, several manufacturers and retail shops offer cheap and simple non-scientific instruments for UVI measurements, sometimes included in objects of everyday life, such as watches, outfits and hand-held instruments. In this work, we compare measurements provided by several commercial non-scientific instruments with data provided by a Bentham spectrometer, a very accurate sensor used for UV measurements. Results show that only a few of the instruments analyzed provide trustworthy UVI measurements.

Ultraviolet radiation modelling using output from the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative.

We have derived values of the Ultraviolet Index (UVI) at solar noon using the Tropospheric Ultraviolet Model (TUV) driven by ozone, temperature and aerosol fields from climate simulations of the first phase of the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI-1). Since clouds remain one of the largest uncertainties in climate projections, we simulated only the clear-sky UVI. We compared the modelled UVI climatologies against present-day climatological values of UVI derived from both satellite data (the OMI-Aura OMUVBd product) and ground-based measurements (from the NDACC network). Depending on the region, relative differences between the UVI obtained from CCMI/TUV calculations and the ground-based measurements ranged between -5.9% and 10.6%. We then calculated the UVI evolution throughout the 21st century for the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5). Compared to 1960s values, we found an average increase in the UVI in 2100 (of 2-4%) in the tropical belt (30°N-30°S). For the mid-latitudes, we observed a 1.8 to 3.4 % increase in the Southern Hemisphere for RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 6.0, and found a 2.3% decrease in RCP 8.5. Higher increases in UVI are projected in the Northern Hemisphere except for RCP 8.5. At high latitudes, ozone recovery is well identified and induces a complete return of mean UVI levels to 1960 values for RCP 8.5 in the Southern Hemisphere. In the Northern Hemisphere, UVI levels in 2100 are higher by 0.5 to 5.5% for RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 6.0 and they are lower by 7.9% for RCP 8.5. We analysed the impacts of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) on UVI from 1960 by comparing CCMI sensitivity simulations (1960-2100) with fixed GHGs or ODSs at their respective 1960 levels. As expected with ODS fixed at their 1960 levels, there is no large decrease in ozone levels and consequently no sudden increase in UVI levels. With fixed GHG, we observed a delayed return of ozone to 1960 values, with a corresponding pattern of change observed on UVI, and looking at the UVI difference between 2090s values and 1960s values, we found an 8 % increase in the tropical belt during the summer of each hemisphere. Finally we show that, while in the Southern Hemisphere the UVI is mainly driven by total ozone column, in the Northern Hemisphere both total ozone column and aerosol optical depth drive UVI levels, with aerosol optical depth having twice as much influence on the UVI as total ozone column does.

Review of ozone and temperature lidar validations performed within the framework of the Network for the Detection of Stratospheric Change.

The use of assimilation tools for satellite validation requires true estimates of the accuracy of the reference data. Since its inception, the Network for Detection of Stratospheric Change (NDSC) has provided systematic lidar measurements of ozone and temperature at several places around the world that are well adapted for satellite validations. Regular exercises have been organised to ensure the data quality at each individual site. These exercises can be separated into three categories: large scale intercomparisons using multiple instruments, including a mobile lidar; using satellite observations as a geographic transfer standards to compare measurements at different sites; and comparative investigations of the analysis software. NDSC is a research network, so each system has its own history, design, and analysis, and has participated differently in validation campaigns. There are still some technological differences that may explain different accuracies. However, the comparison campaigns performed over the last decade have always proved to be very helpful in improving the measurements. To date, more efforts have been devoted to characterising ozone measurements than to temperature observations. The synthesis of the published works shows that the network can potentially be considered as homogeneous within +/-2% between 20-35 km for ozone and +/-1 K between 35-60 km for temperature. Outside this altitude range, larger biases are reported and more efforts are required. In the lower stratosphere, Raman channels seem to improve comparisons but such capabilities were not systematically compared. At the top of the profiles, more investigations on analysis methodologies are still probably needed. SAGE II and GOMOS appear to be excellent tools for future ozone lidar validations but need to be better coordinated and take more advantage of assimilation tools. Also, temperature validations face major difficulties caused by atmospheric tides and therefore require intercomparisons with the mobile systems, at all sites.